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CNN Saturday Morning News

War in Iraq Becomes Big Issue in '04 Presidential Race

Aired July 19, 2003 - 07:31   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


THOMAS ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: The war in Iraq has already become a big issue in the 2004 election campaign. Not only are several Democrats questioning President Bush's credibility on the war, the Democratic candidates who supported the conflict are coming under fire from within party ranks.
CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider has more on that.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): It wasn't supposed to be like this. Last October, when many Democrats in Congress supported the war resolution, they figured they'd take national security off the political agenda and change the subject to the economy.

That didn't happen. President Bush surprised Democrats by making national security the focus of the midterm campaign and winning big.

Four Democrats running for president voted for the war resolution. They figured the U.S. would bring down Saddam Hussein. They'd have political cover and antiwar candidates like Howard Dean would fade away. That didn't happen.

What did happen is that Iraq has become more controversial. Polls show more and more Americans turning against the war and strong opposition from Democrats.

Now, President Bush is facing a credibility problem over the war and so are pro-war Democrats running for president.

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think those who voted for the war in Iraq are on very thin ice. They did not exercise their senatorial requirement to advise and consent knowing all the facts.

SCHNEIDER: Dean hasn't served in Congress and didn't have to vote on the war, which he has always opposed. But those Democrats in Congress who voted for the war now find themselves on the defensive.

SEN. JOE LIEBERMAN (D-CT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I respect your position. Let's disagree respectfully. Let me finish my remarks.

SCHNEIDER: They have to face hostile Democratic audiences.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) does not bring people back from the dead.

REP. DICK GEPHARDT (D-MO), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: All I'm saying is that I did the best I knew how to do in my judgment, in my heart, in my mind for what it would take to keep our people safe.

SCHNEIDER: They have to backtrack.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They assured us they had a plan. It is now evident they didn't have a plan.

SCHNEIDER: While Howard Dean has become Mr. I told you so.

DEAN: I believe that the evidence was not there. I refuse to change my view and as it turned out I was right.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The script for the campaign said the U.S. would win the war, the war issue would fade and anti-war Democrats like Howard Dean would disappear. But the war is still controversial, Dean is thriving and a lot of the Democrats are frantically trying to rewrite the campaign script -- Thomas.

ROBERTS: And, Bill, we have some new approval ratings out for the president, which do touch on the credibility issue. But just, if the president loses a touch of credibility, it doesn't automatically mean the Democrats gain credibility.

SCHNEIDER: No, of course not. The Democrats have to establish their own credibility and the point of the piece was that the Democrats are having some of the same problems as Mr. Bush.

ROBERTS: And in that, we learned the fact that...

SCHNEIDER: Now...

ROBERTS: I'm sorry, Bill. Go ahead. Go ahead.

SCHNEIDER: We do have some new figures on President Bush's job ratings and they are not good news for Mr. Bush. Take a look at this. Mr. Bush's current job approval rating is 55 percent. That is down since May, when it was 63 percent. In fact, if you look all the way back to February, that was before the war started, he's at about the same level he was before the war, which indicates that the burst of popularity he received as a result of the successful effort in Iraq seems to be fading very, very quickly.

ROBERTS: But, Bill, still, percentage wise, these numbers pretty good for the president, very high approval rating across-the-board, though, when you look back over other presidents.

SCHNEIDER: Well, when a president gets close to 50 percent, it often means he's in trouble, and this is creating the impression among a lot of voters, not just Democrats, that he could possibly be vulnerable next year. He's at 55. That's not safe. It's not terrible, but it's not safe. And here's one of the principal reasons. Let's take a look at the public's view of how he's handling the situation in Iraq. Back in May, 69 percent said he was doing a good job in Iraq. Now that's down to 55. Still a majority, but down 14 points. The number who say we're doing a poor job in Iraq has jumped from 27 to 40 percent. Remember, Americans are very distressed that the number of Americans who have been killed since the war is now greater than the number who were killed in the actual fighting. One commander said, "This has become a guerrilla war," a very frightening prospect to Americans.

And not the least important, the United States is now spending about a billion dollars a week in Iraq, a billion dollars a week at a time when the American economy is very shaky. That, too, disturbs a lot of Americans.

ROBERTS: And, Bill, the elections for 2004 right around the corner. So Democrats are really going to be using these war numbers and what -- the situation in Iraq currently as part of, I guess, their strategy in the upcoming campaigning, correct?

SCHNEIDER: Well, they are, indeed, except that not all the Democrats have the same credibility on the war. Some Democrats voted for the war resolution and, as I said, they are finding themselves on the defensive. Only one Democrat over the course of this year has shown positive momentum.

Let's take a look at Democratic preferences right now for their own party's nomination. At the top of the list, the only one who's in double digit, Joe Lieberman, who has a lot of name recognition. He was on the ticket in 2000 with Al Gore. John Kerry, Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean -- he's the one who has shown momentum. They're all bunched more or less together there in between 10 and 16 percent. Dean has established himself now as a top tier contender. He's the only one who's really made progress. The other candidates have either stood still, or, in the case of Edwards and Lieberman, lost some support.

Dean is running the clearest as the anti-war candidate, and, as I said, the script said when the war was over, the United States had won, Dean would disappear. He hasn't disappeared because, surprising to many, the war has become more and more controversial -- Thomas.

ROBERTS: Much more of an issue, that's for sure.

Bill Schneider live for us from Washington.

Bill, thanks, as always.

SCHNEIDER: Sure, Thomas.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired July 19, 2003 - 07:31   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THOMAS ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: The war in Iraq has already become a big issue in the 2004 election campaign. Not only are several Democrats questioning President Bush's credibility on the war, the Democratic candidates who supported the conflict are coming under fire from within party ranks.
CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider has more on that.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): It wasn't supposed to be like this. Last October, when many Democrats in Congress supported the war resolution, they figured they'd take national security off the political agenda and change the subject to the economy.

That didn't happen. President Bush surprised Democrats by making national security the focus of the midterm campaign and winning big.

Four Democrats running for president voted for the war resolution. They figured the U.S. would bring down Saddam Hussein. They'd have political cover and antiwar candidates like Howard Dean would fade away. That didn't happen.

What did happen is that Iraq has become more controversial. Polls show more and more Americans turning against the war and strong opposition from Democrats.

Now, President Bush is facing a credibility problem over the war and so are pro-war Democrats running for president.

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think those who voted for the war in Iraq are on very thin ice. They did not exercise their senatorial requirement to advise and consent knowing all the facts.

SCHNEIDER: Dean hasn't served in Congress and didn't have to vote on the war, which he has always opposed. But those Democrats in Congress who voted for the war now find themselves on the defensive.

SEN. JOE LIEBERMAN (D-CT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I respect your position. Let's disagree respectfully. Let me finish my remarks.

SCHNEIDER: They have to face hostile Democratic audiences.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) does not bring people back from the dead.

REP. DICK GEPHARDT (D-MO), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: All I'm saying is that I did the best I knew how to do in my judgment, in my heart, in my mind for what it would take to keep our people safe.

SCHNEIDER: They have to backtrack.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They assured us they had a plan. It is now evident they didn't have a plan.

SCHNEIDER: While Howard Dean has become Mr. I told you so.

DEAN: I believe that the evidence was not there. I refuse to change my view and as it turned out I was right.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The script for the campaign said the U.S. would win the war, the war issue would fade and anti-war Democrats like Howard Dean would disappear. But the war is still controversial, Dean is thriving and a lot of the Democrats are frantically trying to rewrite the campaign script -- Thomas.

ROBERTS: And, Bill, we have some new approval ratings out for the president, which do touch on the credibility issue. But just, if the president loses a touch of credibility, it doesn't automatically mean the Democrats gain credibility.

SCHNEIDER: No, of course not. The Democrats have to establish their own credibility and the point of the piece was that the Democrats are having some of the same problems as Mr. Bush.

ROBERTS: And in that, we learned the fact that...

SCHNEIDER: Now...

ROBERTS: I'm sorry, Bill. Go ahead. Go ahead.

SCHNEIDER: We do have some new figures on President Bush's job ratings and they are not good news for Mr. Bush. Take a look at this. Mr. Bush's current job approval rating is 55 percent. That is down since May, when it was 63 percent. In fact, if you look all the way back to February, that was before the war started, he's at about the same level he was before the war, which indicates that the burst of popularity he received as a result of the successful effort in Iraq seems to be fading very, very quickly.

ROBERTS: But, Bill, still, percentage wise, these numbers pretty good for the president, very high approval rating across-the-board, though, when you look back over other presidents.

SCHNEIDER: Well, when a president gets close to 50 percent, it often means he's in trouble, and this is creating the impression among a lot of voters, not just Democrats, that he could possibly be vulnerable next year. He's at 55. That's not safe. It's not terrible, but it's not safe. And here's one of the principal reasons. Let's take a look at the public's view of how he's handling the situation in Iraq. Back in May, 69 percent said he was doing a good job in Iraq. Now that's down to 55. Still a majority, but down 14 points. The number who say we're doing a poor job in Iraq has jumped from 27 to 40 percent. Remember, Americans are very distressed that the number of Americans who have been killed since the war is now greater than the number who were killed in the actual fighting. One commander said, "This has become a guerrilla war," a very frightening prospect to Americans.

And not the least important, the United States is now spending about a billion dollars a week in Iraq, a billion dollars a week at a time when the American economy is very shaky. That, too, disturbs a lot of Americans.

ROBERTS: And, Bill, the elections for 2004 right around the corner. So Democrats are really going to be using these war numbers and what -- the situation in Iraq currently as part of, I guess, their strategy in the upcoming campaigning, correct?

SCHNEIDER: Well, they are, indeed, except that not all the Democrats have the same credibility on the war. Some Democrats voted for the war resolution and, as I said, they are finding themselves on the defensive. Only one Democrat over the course of this year has shown positive momentum.

Let's take a look at Democratic preferences right now for their own party's nomination. At the top of the list, the only one who's in double digit, Joe Lieberman, who has a lot of name recognition. He was on the ticket in 2000 with Al Gore. John Kerry, Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean -- he's the one who has shown momentum. They're all bunched more or less together there in between 10 and 16 percent. Dean has established himself now as a top tier contender. He's the only one who's really made progress. The other candidates have either stood still, or, in the case of Edwards and Lieberman, lost some support.

Dean is running the clearest as the anti-war candidate, and, as I said, the script said when the war was over, the United States had won, Dean would disappear. He hasn't disappeared because, surprising to many, the war has become more and more controversial -- Thomas.

ROBERTS: Much more of an issue, that's for sure.

Bill Schneider live for us from Washington.

Bill, thanks, as always.

SCHNEIDER: Sure, Thomas.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com