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CNN Saturday Morning News
Analysis of Race for White House, California Election
Aired September 06, 2003 - 09:21 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Time to talk politics now. We want to give you an update on the race for the White House and the California recall election.
In the midst of all the other news this week, debates were held in both races, and CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein is joining us now from L.A. with more on all of this. Good morning to you, Ron, thanks for being here.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Heidi.
COLLINS: Tell me, if you would, what you thought about the presidential debates. What was so very different this time around?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think you saw two things in this debate. The first and the most obvious is that, for all of this year, the most powerful force in the Democratic race has been the anger, and the -- really, the antipathy in the Democratic base toward President Bush.
We have an extraordinary gap in public opinion about this president. Republicans give him an approval rate of over 90 percent. Among Democrats, it's below 30 percent. Democrats don't like this president. They don't like what he's doing. And they're really demanding the Democratic presidential candidates...
COLLINS: Ron, let me just jump in...
BROWNSTEIN: ... go out there and whack him. I mean, Howard Dean probably, more of his rise is attributable to his tapping into that current than any other single factor. And...
COLLINS: Ron...
BROWNSTEIN: ... what you saw in that debate is, it's pulling all of the Democrats in that direction.
A second quick point, on the other hand, in that debate, they did not go after each other, which shows they're still feeling some reluctance to challenge each other in these very high-profile events. They got some backlash when they did it earlier this spring in South Carolina. For now, at least, they want to keep the focus on President Bush.
COLLINS: OK, Ron, I'm not sure if you can hear me very well. But if you can, the question would be, the 90 percent approval rating with Republicans and 30 percent approval rating with Democrats, is that odd? BROWNSTEIN: Yes, I...
COLLINS: I mean, to see that sort of shift? Doesn't it kind of always happen that way?
BROWNSTEIN: No, actually this is one of the widest, if not the widest gap ever. We're seeing growing polarization, over roughly the last decade, in American politics. You know, in some ways, what we heard on that stage from the Democrats about President Bush was very similar to the way Republicans talked about President Clinton.
We are in an era where both parties are very ideologically coherent, and the space between them is widening. And as you -- as a result, you see intense pressure, whether it's in congressional votes, party line votes going up, or in the presidential race, for really each side to camp out a position of almost unwavering opposition to the other.
Look, Heidi, at Joe Lieberman, and, you know, Joe Lieberman is running a campaign in which he's trying to tout his ability to work to both sides and move to the middle. That might have worked at one point, but right now, it seems a little out of touch with what Democratic voters want. And even he is struggling to escalate his anti-Bush rhetoric.
COLLINS: So who do you think was the strongest from these debates?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, if you look at the last few months, there's no doubt, I think, among Democrats, that Howard Dean, amazingly, has begun to separate himself from the field.
He began the year as the classic dark horse candidate, a little- known governor from a small state, who was putting all of his time and energy into Iowa and New Hampshire, which are the first two contests, hoping for a breakthrough that would then allow him to get on the cover of "TIME" and "Newsweek" and start raising money.
Well, look what happened. He went out and tapped a nerve among Democratic activists with his opposition to the war, developed more success at raising money on the Internet than any candidate before him. And "TIME" and "Newsweek" came to him in the summer of 2003.
He's moved ahead in the polls in those first two states, and it's also likely that he's going to raise significantly more money than anyone else in the quarter that ends on September 30.
So you have this really unprecedented situation of the outsider beginning to lay down the tactical and institutional advantages that usually go to the favorite of the party establishment.
COLLINS: Right.
BROWNSTEIN: And the other candidates have to find a way to slow him down. COLLINS: All right. Well, let's look at a couple of polls now, if we could. We have a CNN-"TIME" poll, as a matter of fact. Talked to 1,000 people. And they wanted to know, the first question was, If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, would you say you will definitely vote for him, might vote for him, or you will definitely vote against him?
And those are the numbers that came up, 29 percent for Bush, 41 percent definitely against Bush, 25 percent might vote for or against Bush.
Let me get to the second one quickly, talking about who -- what Democratic candidate would be out there that could possibly defeat George Bush, and we've got 50 percent still voting for Bush, 46 percent Hillary Clinton. What do you make of that?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, Hillary Clinton clearly is the best known of the possible Democrats. She's not going to run, by all indications. There have been polls for months that have shown her way ahead of anyone else in the Democratic field, but I think she feels that she promised the voters of New York not to do it.
And if she went back on that promise, it would probably be very hard to mount a serious campaign in 2004. She seems like more of a 2008 person.
The first poll is fascinating. That's one of the weakest numbers we've seen for President Bush in a reelection poll, although there have been a bunch lately that have shown his support under 50 percent.
Look, he does not have a lot of good news in the headlines right now. You saw the job growth numbers that came out yesterday. There have been 3.3 million private sector jobs lost since President Bush took office, 2.7 million overall.
He's at risk of becoming the first president since Herbert Hoover to have a net loss of jobs over his presidential term.
COLLINS: All right.
BROWNSTEIN: At the same time, obviously...
COLLINS: All right, Ron. I also to put it out there...
BROWNSTEIN: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE) tomorrow...
COLLINS: ... obviously to...
BROWNSTEIN: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE) news in Iraq has been tough, with casualties...
COLLINS: Just to balance it out a little bit, Ron-
BROWNSTEIN: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE). So it's not surprising...
COLLINS: ... I'll (UNINTELLIGIBLE)... BROWNSTEIN: ... the approval rating is dropping. And as it does, the reelect becomes more shaky.
COLLINS: Ron Brownstein...
BROWNSTEIN: If current conditions continue...
COLLINS: ... if you can hear me...
BROWNSTEIN: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE) tough.
COLLINS: ... we're out of time.
BROWNSTEIN: All right, sorry.
COLLINS: I just want to make sure we try to balance it out a little bit with making sure that we remind everybody about the CBS poll that also said a few days ago, two-thirds of Americans having a hard time recognizing any of the Democratic candidates.
So we do appreciate you being with us, Ron. Thanks so very much.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you, Heidi.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired September 6, 2003 - 09:21 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Time to talk politics now. We want to give you an update on the race for the White House and the California recall election.
In the midst of all the other news this week, debates were held in both races, and CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein is joining us now from L.A. with more on all of this. Good morning to you, Ron, thanks for being here.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Heidi.
COLLINS: Tell me, if you would, what you thought about the presidential debates. What was so very different this time around?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think you saw two things in this debate. The first and the most obvious is that, for all of this year, the most powerful force in the Democratic race has been the anger, and the -- really, the antipathy in the Democratic base toward President Bush.
We have an extraordinary gap in public opinion about this president. Republicans give him an approval rate of over 90 percent. Among Democrats, it's below 30 percent. Democrats don't like this president. They don't like what he's doing. And they're really demanding the Democratic presidential candidates...
COLLINS: Ron, let me just jump in...
BROWNSTEIN: ... go out there and whack him. I mean, Howard Dean probably, more of his rise is attributable to his tapping into that current than any other single factor. And...
COLLINS: Ron...
BROWNSTEIN: ... what you saw in that debate is, it's pulling all of the Democrats in that direction.
A second quick point, on the other hand, in that debate, they did not go after each other, which shows they're still feeling some reluctance to challenge each other in these very high-profile events. They got some backlash when they did it earlier this spring in South Carolina. For now, at least, they want to keep the focus on President Bush.
COLLINS: OK, Ron, I'm not sure if you can hear me very well. But if you can, the question would be, the 90 percent approval rating with Republicans and 30 percent approval rating with Democrats, is that odd? BROWNSTEIN: Yes, I...
COLLINS: I mean, to see that sort of shift? Doesn't it kind of always happen that way?
BROWNSTEIN: No, actually this is one of the widest, if not the widest gap ever. We're seeing growing polarization, over roughly the last decade, in American politics. You know, in some ways, what we heard on that stage from the Democrats about President Bush was very similar to the way Republicans talked about President Clinton.
We are in an era where both parties are very ideologically coherent, and the space between them is widening. And as you -- as a result, you see intense pressure, whether it's in congressional votes, party line votes going up, or in the presidential race, for really each side to camp out a position of almost unwavering opposition to the other.
Look, Heidi, at Joe Lieberman, and, you know, Joe Lieberman is running a campaign in which he's trying to tout his ability to work to both sides and move to the middle. That might have worked at one point, but right now, it seems a little out of touch with what Democratic voters want. And even he is struggling to escalate his anti-Bush rhetoric.
COLLINS: So who do you think was the strongest from these debates?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, if you look at the last few months, there's no doubt, I think, among Democrats, that Howard Dean, amazingly, has begun to separate himself from the field.
He began the year as the classic dark horse candidate, a little- known governor from a small state, who was putting all of his time and energy into Iowa and New Hampshire, which are the first two contests, hoping for a breakthrough that would then allow him to get on the cover of "TIME" and "Newsweek" and start raising money.
Well, look what happened. He went out and tapped a nerve among Democratic activists with his opposition to the war, developed more success at raising money on the Internet than any candidate before him. And "TIME" and "Newsweek" came to him in the summer of 2003.
He's moved ahead in the polls in those first two states, and it's also likely that he's going to raise significantly more money than anyone else in the quarter that ends on September 30.
So you have this really unprecedented situation of the outsider beginning to lay down the tactical and institutional advantages that usually go to the favorite of the party establishment.
COLLINS: Right.
BROWNSTEIN: And the other candidates have to find a way to slow him down. COLLINS: All right. Well, let's look at a couple of polls now, if we could. We have a CNN-"TIME" poll, as a matter of fact. Talked to 1,000 people. And they wanted to know, the first question was, If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, would you say you will definitely vote for him, might vote for him, or you will definitely vote against him?
And those are the numbers that came up, 29 percent for Bush, 41 percent definitely against Bush, 25 percent might vote for or against Bush.
Let me get to the second one quickly, talking about who -- what Democratic candidate would be out there that could possibly defeat George Bush, and we've got 50 percent still voting for Bush, 46 percent Hillary Clinton. What do you make of that?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, Hillary Clinton clearly is the best known of the possible Democrats. She's not going to run, by all indications. There have been polls for months that have shown her way ahead of anyone else in the Democratic field, but I think she feels that she promised the voters of New York not to do it.
And if she went back on that promise, it would probably be very hard to mount a serious campaign in 2004. She seems like more of a 2008 person.
The first poll is fascinating. That's one of the weakest numbers we've seen for President Bush in a reelection poll, although there have been a bunch lately that have shown his support under 50 percent.
Look, he does not have a lot of good news in the headlines right now. You saw the job growth numbers that came out yesterday. There have been 3.3 million private sector jobs lost since President Bush took office, 2.7 million overall.
He's at risk of becoming the first president since Herbert Hoover to have a net loss of jobs over his presidential term.
COLLINS: All right.
BROWNSTEIN: At the same time, obviously...
COLLINS: All right, Ron. I also to put it out there...
BROWNSTEIN: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE) tomorrow...
COLLINS: ... obviously to...
BROWNSTEIN: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE) news in Iraq has been tough, with casualties...
COLLINS: Just to balance it out a little bit, Ron-
BROWNSTEIN: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE). So it's not surprising...
COLLINS: ... I'll (UNINTELLIGIBLE)... BROWNSTEIN: ... the approval rating is dropping. And as it does, the reelect becomes more shaky.
COLLINS: Ron Brownstein...
BROWNSTEIN: If current conditions continue...
COLLINS: ... if you can hear me...
BROWNSTEIN: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE) tough.
COLLINS: ... we're out of time.
BROWNSTEIN: All right, sorry.
COLLINS: I just want to make sure we try to balance it out a little bit with making sure that we remind everybody about the CBS poll that also said a few days ago, two-thirds of Americans having a hard time recognizing any of the Democratic candidates.
So we do appreciate you being with us, Ron. Thanks so very much.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you, Heidi.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
