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CNN Saturday Morning News
Intervie with Samer Shehata
Aired February 14, 2004 - 07:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN ANCHOR: In Iraq, amid the frequent attacks on troops, police, and civilians, comes an ominous bit of information. This week, the U.S. said it found a letter indicating al Qaeda may be trying to trigger a civil war between Shi'a and Sunni Muslims.
Let's get some insight on this now from Samer Shehata of Georgetown University's Center for Contemporary Arab Studies.
A civil war, how dangerous a prospect is that, and how likely is it?
SAMER SHEHATA, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: Well, it's a terribly dangerous prospect, not only for Iraq but for all of Iraq's neighbors and for the United States, for that matter. I don't think that a civil war is inevitable in Iraq, and it might not even be likely. And I think it will have less to do with al Qaeda and what al Qaeda's aspirations are and more to do with how the United States handles the transition process and handles the selection of the interim government.
If people in Iraq believe in the legitimacy of the transition process, if they're vested in the system, individuals and political parties, then a civil war will be less likely.
MCINTYRE: How much credence do you put into this letter that would seem to indicate that outside forces want to foster Shi'a-Sunni civil action?
SHEHATA: Well, it makes great sense that al Qaeda would want Iraq to not be a stable and secure place, would want Iraq to be a place where they could carry out their activities, not only against American forces in Iraq, but also in the region, against Saudi Arabia, as they have undertaken several attacks against Saudi Arabia.
So they're looking for a failed state, as it were, that will allow them the opportunity to operate actively in the region. So there's no question that al Qaeda would benefit from Iraq becoming a failed state.
But a civil war, I'm not sure that's what they want.
MCINTYRE: What about this situation in the north, where the Kurds are in a minority, and they're again pushing for more autonomy? There's been a lot of tension there. The U.S. troops in that area have spent a lot of time trying to defuse those tensions. What's the prospect there?
SHEHATA: Well, the prospect isn't, again, necessarily one of civil war. But you're right to point out that there are tensions, not only between Kurds and non-Kurds, but between Kurds and the small Turkoman population as well as between Kurds and among themselves.
We have to remember that there was a -- the Kurdish population, like the Shi'a population and the Sunni population and so forth, are not necessarily homogenous. They are not represented by one political group. There are two major Kurdish political factions and political parties, which have seen violent confrontations in the past.
But as long as the question remains Iraq, Iraqi integrity, the transfer of power, and so forth, the Kurdish political groups are less interested in fighting among each other and are more interested in ensuring the strength and unity and the place of the Kurdish population in Iraq more generally.
MCINTYRE: What's the most important thing that the U.S. can do, or the U.S. military can do, for that matter, to try to prevent these tensions from erupting into a civil war?
SHEHATA: Well, I think the most important thing that the U.S. can do won't be the military so much, it will be creating a system and a transition process that the Iraqis really believe in the legitimacy of. And that, if that means elections sometime before June or after June, then elections it'll have to be.
Because if Iraqis don't believe in the legitimacy of the system, if they don't believe that their interests are going to be heard, as it were, if they believe that the Americans are going to put in people in charge of Iraq who are going to do America's bidding and are not going to be reflective of popular will, then that's not going to bode very well.
MCINTYRE: Samer Shehata, thank you very much for your insights on CNN SATURDAY MORNING from the Georgetown University Center for Contemporary Arab Studies.
SHEHATA: You're very welcome.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired February 14, 2004 - 07:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN ANCHOR: In Iraq, amid the frequent attacks on troops, police, and civilians, comes an ominous bit of information. This week, the U.S. said it found a letter indicating al Qaeda may be trying to trigger a civil war between Shi'a and Sunni Muslims.
Let's get some insight on this now from Samer Shehata of Georgetown University's Center for Contemporary Arab Studies.
A civil war, how dangerous a prospect is that, and how likely is it?
SAMER SHEHATA, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: Well, it's a terribly dangerous prospect, not only for Iraq but for all of Iraq's neighbors and for the United States, for that matter. I don't think that a civil war is inevitable in Iraq, and it might not even be likely. And I think it will have less to do with al Qaeda and what al Qaeda's aspirations are and more to do with how the United States handles the transition process and handles the selection of the interim government.
If people in Iraq believe in the legitimacy of the transition process, if they're vested in the system, individuals and political parties, then a civil war will be less likely.
MCINTYRE: How much credence do you put into this letter that would seem to indicate that outside forces want to foster Shi'a-Sunni civil action?
SHEHATA: Well, it makes great sense that al Qaeda would want Iraq to not be a stable and secure place, would want Iraq to be a place where they could carry out their activities, not only against American forces in Iraq, but also in the region, against Saudi Arabia, as they have undertaken several attacks against Saudi Arabia.
So they're looking for a failed state, as it were, that will allow them the opportunity to operate actively in the region. So there's no question that al Qaeda would benefit from Iraq becoming a failed state.
But a civil war, I'm not sure that's what they want.
MCINTYRE: What about this situation in the north, where the Kurds are in a minority, and they're again pushing for more autonomy? There's been a lot of tension there. The U.S. troops in that area have spent a lot of time trying to defuse those tensions. What's the prospect there?
SHEHATA: Well, the prospect isn't, again, necessarily one of civil war. But you're right to point out that there are tensions, not only between Kurds and non-Kurds, but between Kurds and the small Turkoman population as well as between Kurds and among themselves.
We have to remember that there was a -- the Kurdish population, like the Shi'a population and the Sunni population and so forth, are not necessarily homogenous. They are not represented by one political group. There are two major Kurdish political factions and political parties, which have seen violent confrontations in the past.
But as long as the question remains Iraq, Iraqi integrity, the transfer of power, and so forth, the Kurdish political groups are less interested in fighting among each other and are more interested in ensuring the strength and unity and the place of the Kurdish population in Iraq more generally.
MCINTYRE: What's the most important thing that the U.S. can do, or the U.S. military can do, for that matter, to try to prevent these tensions from erupting into a civil war?
SHEHATA: Well, I think the most important thing that the U.S. can do won't be the military so much, it will be creating a system and a transition process that the Iraqis really believe in the legitimacy of. And that, if that means elections sometime before June or after June, then elections it'll have to be.
Because if Iraqis don't believe in the legitimacy of the system, if they don't believe that their interests are going to be heard, as it were, if they believe that the Americans are going to put in people in charge of Iraq who are going to do America's bidding and are not going to be reflective of popular will, then that's not going to bode very well.
MCINTYRE: Samer Shehata, thank you very much for your insights on CNN SATURDAY MORNING from the Georgetown University Center for Contemporary Arab Studies.
SHEHATA: You're very welcome.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
