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CNN Saturday Morning News

Novak Zone: A Look at up Coming Elections in Iraq

Aired January 29, 2005 - 09:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BETTY NGUYEN, CNN ANCHOR: U.S. and Iraqi forces say the violent opposition from insurgents as they try to set up barricades around polling stations in Iraq.
Good morning from the CNN Center here in Atlanta. This is CNN SATURDAY MORNING. It is January 29. I'm Betty Nguyen.

TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Tony Harris. Nine a.m. in the East, and 6:00 a.m. in the West. Thank you for being with us.

Let's get caught up on the morning headlines now in the news.

Southerners who watched as winter gripped the Northeast last weekend are now frozen in this, this weekend. Sleet, freezing rain, and snow are moving through parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Multi-car crashes are reported on Atlanta-area expressways, and flights are delayed at the airport.

In Connecticut, Michael Ross wants to be executed for killing four women, but he'll have to wait until Monday at least. The execution was set for this morning, but it was postponed so a conflict-of-interest issue could be resolved involving Ross's attorney.

Two bombs exploded this morning in an Iraqi town northeast of Baqubah, killing at least eight people and wounding seven others. At least one of the explosions was the work of a suicide bomber. The target was a facility for coordinating U.S. and Iraqi military activities.

NGUYEN: And here's what we've got coming up this hour. Great expectations and even greater security. We will take you live to Baghdad on the eve of Iraq's first free election in half a century.

Also, the historic vote goes far beyond Iraq's borders. We will talk to some Iraqi expatriates who have mixed feelings about the election.

And watch your step. Ouch! That had to hurt.

(LAUGHTER)

HARRIS: Yes.

NGUYEN: A major ice storm bears down on the Southeast, making driving, and walking, apparently, dangerous. HARRIS: Well, this morning's fatal bombings in the Kurdish north came as preparations for tomorrow's Iraqi elections were being completed. The ballots are ready, the polling places are fortified. In the latest security move, the bridges in Baghdad have been locked down. A curfew is in effect. And most of the shops are closed in Iraq's capital.

CNN's Jeff Koinange is in Baghdad this morning. Jeff?

JEFF KOINANGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, there, Tony.

And you just put the, hit the nail on the head. Lockdown is how this city and this country looks right now, unprecedented security. But that didn't prevent a suicide bomber in the town of Khanaqin, that's about 60 miles northeast of Baqubah, right close to the Iranian border, from strapping himself to explosives, walking up to a place called the Joint Coordination Center, like a military base, detonating himself, and then, in the ensuing commotion, an explosive device went off, killing up to eight people, wounding several others.

Here in Baghdad, Baghdad police tell us that insurgents attacked a police station in one of the southern suburbs. They wounded two Iraqi policeman, and they made off with a police car. And why is that significant? Well, on election day, only certain vehicles will be allowed within sight of (UNINTELLIGIBLE) any polling stations. Insurgents stealing a police car, not a good sign.

But Tony, having said that, security around the city this morning, you can call it airtight. Both U.S. and Iraqi forces out in force. Major police checks all over town, with the military searching vehicles, searching individuals. Seems like Iraqis are heeding the call to stay away. There's a curfew in place. The Baghdad airport is closed. The country's borders are sealed.

It looks like Iraqis are heeding that call. But we don't -- so far, Tony, we know that a -- just under 13 million Iraqis have registered to vote. We can't tell how many actually are going to show up on election day.

But one more note for you here, Tony. On the first day of expatriate voting in 14 countries around the world, so far a little over 84,000 have voted. That's on first day. They have two more days to do that. Of course, you know, local Iraqis only have one day, and that's just hours away, Tony.

HARRIS: OK, Jeff, paint a picture for us of what Iraqis will face tomorrow as they walk up to these polling places. Describe that ring of security, if you would.

KOINANGE: There's a three-tier ring of security, Tony. First up will be Iraqi police, a cordon, police checks, the works. They'll be frisked, they'll be checked, metal detectors, the works.

Beyond that, Iraqi national guard. They will be doing exact same thing. And beyond that, within sight but out of earshot, U.S. soldiers, just in case there's any trouble. So if people showing up to line up for polls, there'll be long lines, Tony. They'll be waiting in line for a long time because of this frisking back and forth to make sure eventually, when they get to the polling centers, that they are not strapping anything on them.

Security, as they say here on the ground, Tony, will be unprecedented.

HARRIS: Bring your patience. Jeff Koinange in Baghdad for us. Jeff, we appreciate it, thank you.

NGUYEN: Now to Iraqis living abroad. They are also seizing the opportunity to cast votes, many for the first times in their lives. Polling sites have been opened in 14 countries, including the United States. One of the five American cities to host voting for the expatriates is New Carrollton, Maryland, which is a suburb outside of Washington's Beltway.

And CNN's Gary Nurenberg is there with the latest on voting. Hi, there, Gary.

GARY NURENBERG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Betty.

We thought we would start by showing you a small version of a sample ballot. This is a much smaller than the big ballot that Iraqis are facing inside. Complicated, lots of names, lots of parties, and lots of numbers. But the voters we talked to came well prepared, and knew exactly whom they wanted to vote for.

They are not at all being treated like American voters in an American election. If you want to vote here today, you're forced to stand in line in a freezing parking lot before you are escorted, one by one, into a security tent, where you're wanded and patted down. Obviously, the elections are an appealing symbolic target for terrorists.

CNN national security correspondent, homeland security correspondent Jeanne Meserve talked about the threat with Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TOM RIDGE, SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY: Several weeks ago, we actually started coordinating the activity with the state and locals. There's a visible added security presence, but there's no threat information that suggests that they are doing anything other than to vote peacefully in this very important election.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NURENBERG: Despite that, security here today is very heavy. Because this is really the only spot one can vote on the Eastern seaboard, drivers came from all over the Eastern seaboard to vote, many of them traveling all night to get here. Some yesterday were literally dancing with joy at the opportunity to cast the first vote of their lives. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We got the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) 36 years. (UNINTELLIGIBLE), no more killed, no more children killed from the Saddam.

NURENBERG (voice-over): This Maryland location is one of five where Iraqis can vote in the United States. Some of it looks like an American election, show ID, sign in. But most American voters don't get told to stick their fingers in ink to prevent them from voting again. It will mark the voters for days.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Vote for just one party. Just check off the box.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK.

NURENBERG: There's some privacy. And there is some evident pride when actual voting is done. The smiles continued outside.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I feel great. I feel great. I think that I am born new.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think this is the start of a new Iraq.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are so happy, and I can tell thanks for President George W. Bush. He did that for us. And we appreciate it.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

NURENBERG: That may not be a universally shared sentiment. There are about 240,000 Iraqis living in the United States eligible to vote. Only 26,000 of them registered to do so, Betty.

NGUYEN: CNN's Gary Nurenberg, we thank you for that report.

And we want to hear from you this morning. Here's our e-mail question. Is Iraq worth the American sacrifice? Send your thoughts to wam@cnn.com, and we'll share those comments throughout the morning.

HARRIS: Well, the Southeast is still being entombed -- pretty descriptive, isn't it?...

(LAUGHTER)

NGUYEN: Yes.

HARRIS: ... in ice. It began last night and could continue most of today.

CNN's Sara Dorsey has details from Atlanta.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SARA DORSEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Icy, wintry weather is bearing down on the Southeast, making even walking hard at times. And in parts of Georgia, driving has proved extremely dangerous.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I was just driving down the street, I was driving normally, and (UNINTELLIGIBLE), and all of a sudden, I went to lightly put my foot on the brake, and all of a sudden, the car just started skidding, and I couldn't stop it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We were trying to brake. We brake to, you know, we tried to brake to slow the bus down and avoid him, and he just kept sliding, and we hit him.

DORSEY: Sixteen cars crunched in this pileup in Lawrenceville as the storm moved in and the weather continues to worsen.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I mean, it's just icy. The guy spun out way in front of us and kept circling back and back and back, and went right into us.

DORSEY: Preparations around metro Atlanta began in full force yesterday as road crews geared up to handle the expected ice. When it fell, though, salt didn't seem to be enough to help drivers.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DORSEY: And here's a live look -- well, not a live look, at Hartsfield-Jackson...

HARRIS: Well, it is a mess.

DORSEY: ... International Airport. It is a mess. Still, there it is. Still some ice and rain falling there, but it is open. That is the good news for those of you trying to get out. Delta, the biggest carrier, is reporting many canceled flights. It's operating at about 50 percent of what it would on a typical Saturday morning.

If you do have a flight going in or out of Atlanta today, the airport suggests you call your specific airline or check on the Hartsfield-Jackson Web site, for delays and cancellations, because there are, of course, are many, Tony.

HARRIS: And you're going to be checking power outages throughout the day, right?

DORSEY: Yes, we've been making calls.

HARRIS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

DORSEY: There are some in several states.

HARRIS: Oooooh, my.

DORSEY: And we'll keep you updated as the day goes on.

HARRIS: Hotlanta, huh? I don't believe it...

NGUYEN: Not any more.

HARRIS: ... not today.

NGUYEN: Yes, exactly.

HARRIS: That's right.

NGUYEN: Well, things could get worse across the Southeast before they get better. There's more ice, more snow, all of that on the way.

HARRIS: OK, so here's the question. When will the Southeast start to thaw? Let's go to meteorologist Rob Marciano in the CNN Weather Center. Morning, Rob.

ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Morning, Tony, Betty.

Well, you can (UNINTELLIGIBLE) have faith in that we will eventually thaw, because it typically doesn't get this cold in this part of the world.

(WEATHER FORECAST)

MARCIANO: So it's a pretty big storm. We'll keep an eye on it throughout the weekend, Tony and Betty, (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

HARRIS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE), thank you, sir.

Well, thousands of Iraqis across the globe have already voted, but some expatriates are boycotting the election.

NGUYEN: And our Bob Novak looks at what the Iraqi elections will mean for President Bush.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

Welcome back to CNN SATURDAY MORNING. I'm Betty Nguyen.

We want to check our top stories right now.

The final touches are being put on more than 30,000 polling places across Iraq. It is the eve of the nation's first free election in half a century.

Meantime, Iraqis in 14 other countries have already started voting.

Slippery roads across the Southeast this morning as the region braces for a major storm. Icy roads are blamed for two traffic deaths in Georgia. Up to four inches of snow could fall across South Carolina.

And we will be hearing from Michael Jackson tomorrow morning. The pop star will put a video statement on his Web site commenting on leaks of grand jury testimony in his child molestation case. Jury selection for Jackson's trial, that starts on Monday.

And still ahead right here on CNN SATURDAY MORNING, much more coverage of Iraq's election. It's not your typical vote, to say the least. And American voters might cringe when they hear what the Iraqis have to go through. We'll give you those details later this hour.

HARRIS: Well, Iraqis living abroad are also able to cast absentee votes this weekend. Fourteen nations are hosting election sites, from the United States, to the United Kingdom, to the United Arab Emirates. About a quarter million Iraqi expatriates have registered to vote, but some are boycotting the election.

We have two guests representing those opposing views. Noaman Muna is the chairman of the Iraqi Al Alama (ph) Association. He voted yesterday. And Houzan Mahmoud is boycotting the election. She's the U.K. head of the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) Organization of Women's Freedom in Iraq.

And Houzan, let me start with you. First, tell me why you're boycotting the election.

HOUZAN MAHMOUD, U.K. HEAD, OWFI: Well, basically, because I see that this election is not benefiting the Iraqi people. And it's only the continuation of occupation of Iraq and the legitimization of U.S. politics in Iraq.

And it's actually not -- and that those people who are already candidating themselves to be elected, they are not representing us in any way, and that people in Iraq did not have chance to know these party's programs and agenda, and that this is not a free election in any way, and that among the suicide attacks, terrorism by Islamic groups, terrorization in women generally, how can people go out and vote? And how can people be aware that who are they voting for?

So I think this is not legitimate, and that it is actually only going to further the terrorism is going on in Iraq.

HARRIS: Houzan, you don't see this as a first step in the process?

MAHMOUD: Well, this isn't a first step, actually, because, from the very beginning of the occupation, U.S.A. try to legitimize its politics in Iraq through creating a variety of right-wing nationalists and Islamist groups in its so-called ruling council. Later on they changed the name into governing council, and later on into interim government.

And now, this election process is the continuation of the same process that has begun from the very beginning...

HARRIS: OK.

MAHMOUD: ... of the occupation, and that actually it's not benefiting us in any way.

HARRIS: Noaman, all right, weigh in here. What do you think? You voted yesterday.

NOAMAN MUNA, IRAQI VOTER: I did vote yesterday. And I was extremely happy to vote yesterday. I hold completely opposite view, because I believe this is a milestone, an important milestone and step forward towards building democracy in Iraq, towards ending occupation. Without it, we will continue to have the occupation forever and ever. We need to have a legitimate government. (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: Do you feel this is a -- No, go ahead.

MUNA: And I believe there is a widespread representation in this election. It is not ideal. There is no way that this could be an ideal election in terms of representing the whole of Iraq. We are living under occupation. We are living under the threat of terrorism, which is a daily threat, which we are fighting. But equally, there is a very widespread representation, (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: OK, Noaman, let me stop you there...

MUNA: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: Let me stop there, and...

MUNA: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE) whole political spectrum.

HARRIS: Let me stop there and follow up. But what are you voting for? You're voting for this national assembly. Who are the people who have the real control? I mean, if you have a problem, for example, with electricity, in Baghdad, I mean, who do you call? Who will you be able to call in this assembly? What will it mean for everyday Iraqis trying to live their life?

MUNA: Well, to start with, the -- although the assembly will elect a government, or will choose a government, which is a president, and the presidential council will select a government like any other country, there is a process of selecting a prime minister, and that prime minister will be subject to a vote within this assembly.

Now, that is said, obviously, if there are problems in the future, you call on the government. But one of the most important element which we should not forget in having this assembly is the writing of the constitution.

HARRIS: Yes?

MUNA: We haven't had a permanent constitution for many, many, many years. And the Iraqis are seeing this as a step to stopping dictatorship...

HARRIS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

MUNA: ... from coming back into Iraq...

HARRIS: OK...

MUNA: ... and to stopping the -- Carry on, sorry.

HARRIS: All right. Houzan, let me bring you back in here. You get an opportunity with this election to seat a general assembly that will work on a constitution. That's the first step. And then you move forward with elections for officers and officials to run the country. That seems like the framework for an operation that eventually turns the country back over to Iraqis.

MAHMOUD: Well, I doubt it very much, because it depends who are these people that are going to write (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: OK, so what...

MAHMOUD: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: ... is the alternative?

MAHMOUD: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: What is the alternative?

MAHMOUD: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: What's the alternative plan?

MAHMOUD: Well, we have an alternative. We have -- we have the progressive secular people in Iraq. We have progressive secular organizations that have been fighting for equality, for freedom, for secular constitution. Among them, Organization of Women's Freedom in Iraq, the Federation of Workers Councils and Unions in Iraq, the Union of Unemployed, Organization in Defense of Children in Iraq, Worker (UNINTELLIGIBLE) Party of Iraq.

These are all people who have been in the forefront of fighting for freedom, for equality, for egalitarian state system to be established in Iraq. And basically, these are the only people who are capable of bringing a free -- a kind of...

HARRIS: OK.

MAHMOUD: ... an egalitarian state system that treats people equally, regardless of gender, religious and ethnic background.

HARRIS: I hear you.

MAHMOUD: But what we see is, through this election, sorry, let me continue this...

HARRIS: OK, go ahead.

MAHMOUD: ... that it is the reproduction, it is the reproduction of the ethnic and religious division in Iraq. And that is not benefiting Iraqi people. And that the -- even the concept of equal citizenship will be undermined by this, because you are going to be identified by your tribe or your religious sect or your ethnic minority. This will not serve the Iraqi people at all.

HARRIS: OK. Thank you both. Thank you both. Noaman Muna and Houzan Mahmoud, thank you both. We appreciate your taking the time to talk to us this morning. MUNA: Thank you.

MAHMOUD: Thank you very much indeed.

MUNA: OK.

HARRIS: OK.

NGUYEN: Condoleezza Rice gets grilled about U.S. policy in Iraq, just as Iraqis prepare to head to the polls. What's Washington thinking? Robert Novak joins us with some inside scoop from the nation's capital. That's coming up.

But first, a CNN extra, 39 percent of American workers would sacrifice a $5,000 raise for additional time off, according to Salary.com. That number is up 20 percent from just three years ago. And check this out. The average number of paid days off a worker gets after five years of service in the U.S. is 21.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: Good morning, Chicago. After five straight wins, can the Baby Bulls pull off another one?

I got to tell you something, there hasn't been this much excitement, Betty, over basketball in the Windy City, dare I say, since...

NGUYEN: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)?

HARRIS: ... Michael Jordan left, number 23.

NGUYEN: Mmmmmmmm.

HARRIS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) North Carolina, the Bulls go head to head with the Boston Celtics tonight at the United Center.

NGUYEN: That's a bold statement there, Tony.

But you know what else is making a bold statement, Mother Nature. Boy, we...

HARRIS: Yes.

NGUYEN: ... we saw thin in Atlanta, Rob.

MARCIANO: Yes. Lenny Kravitz playing in the background.

HARRIS: Yes.

MARCIANO: Nice little wake-me-up. You're right, dinner rebuilding here in Chicago. So I got to get on to weather.

NGUYEN: OK.

(LAUGHTER) MARCIANO: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) music out of my ear. I want to talk sports with Tony (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

(LAUGHTER)

MARCIANO: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) north or the south (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: Well, good.

MARCIANO: ... pink showing up.

(WEATHER FORECAST)

MARCIANO: It is not nice out there. Let's just camp out here tonight, guys.

(LAUGHTER)

HARRIS: Yes...

MARCIANO: All right?

HARRIS: ... that's what I was thinking, (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

MARCIANO: Little slumber party?

HARRIS: Sure, sure.

NGUYEN: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) ice pellets, I mean. Don't leave.

HARRIS: I'm not, I'm...

NGUYEN: You're staying here.

HARRIS: Yes, I guess I am. I thought I was going to (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

NGUYEN: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) cot on the side of the desk.

HARRIS: All right.

MARCIANO: Be careful out there, if you're (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

HARRIS: Yes, thank you, Rob, appreciate it.

MARCIANO: All right.

HARRIS: Ooh.

NGUYEN: All right. So when Iraqis go into the voting booth, exactly who will be there? But who will they be voting for? We've got the details on how this election will work, when CNN SATURDAY MORNING returns.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) NGUYEN: Iraqis prepare to head to the polls, and the political leadership in Washington keeps an anxious watch on those proceedings.

We want to welcome you back this morning. I'm Betty Nguyen.

HARRIS: And I'm Tony Harris.

That story coming up.

First, here's what's happening now in the news.

Freezing rain and sleet are hammering parts of the Southeast. We can testify that means slippery streets, closed roads, and icy power lines. At least two people have been killed in auto accidents in north Georgia. And the storm is moving in on the Carolinas. Utility crews estimate thousands of people may be without power by the end of the day.

Another surge of violence in Iraq just one day before historic elections. In the worst attack, insurgents killed at least eight people and wounded seven others in bombings in the Kurdish north. In Baghdad, insurgents targeted police stations. Police say two officers were wounded and a police vehicle was stolen.

The military announced today that two American soldiers were killed when their helicopter crashed in western Baghdad yesterday. The cause of the crash is still under investigation, but military officials say there's no evidence of hostile fire.

NGUYEN: A special edition on The Novak Zone this morning. It is the eve of Iraq's first free election in half a century. Iraqis around the world are already voting, and their countrymen back home are getting ready to cast their historic ballots.

Meantime, Washington will be anxiously and cautiously awaiting those results.

And that's where we find our Bob Novak. Good morning to you, Bob.

ROBERT NOVAK, HOST, THE NOVAK ZONE: Good morning, Betty.

NGUYEN: I think a lot of this really depends on voter turnout, especially in Iraq. President Bush urged just this past week Iraqis to defy the insurgents, go to the polls, cast their ballot. What kind of voter turnout are you expecting?

NOVAK: I think there's going to be a huge voter turnout.

Now, I think it's easy to President Bush to say, Get out there and vote. They're not shooting at him. But I have great admiration for these Iraqi people who are getting out and risking their lives to vote. But it's the first time in their lives, and I think it's going to be a big turnout. I don't, so in that sense, the insurgents' offensive has failed.

NGUYEN: A lot of candidates on the ballot. Does the U.S. have a favorite in this race?

NOVAK: All the favorites of the U.S. is, is to get a lot of votes. I don't believe they really -- I think they, what they really want is diversity. They don't want the Shi'ite majority to really dominate and have no representation for anybody else. I think they want a lot of people to win, a lot of diversity, and a lot of votes.

NGUYEN: Once all these votes are counted, Bob, is it realistic to say that the Iraqis will then be ready to govern themselves?

NOVAK: I think they can govern themselves fine. The question is can they protect themselves from very well-organized terrorist attacks and insurgency? That is the question. When are they going to be ready to protect themselves?

And it, I don't believe that the United States government is saying, You have to have full protection. I think they are going to say, As long as you can have a modicum of protection, we're going to get out, because, Betty. there is an enormous desire in all quarters, all the way from Teddy Kennedy to Don Rumsfeld, to get the troops out of Iraq soon and faster than previous anticipated plans.

NGUYEN: And on that same note, there's been a lot of speculation that once this new government is in place, that they will tell the U.S. to go ahead and leave the country, that they will start to secure themselves. Do you expect that's going to take quite some time? Or is that going to happen fairly soon after the votes are counted?

NOVAK: No, I don't believe they're going to tell us to get out, because they're not able to protect themselves. And if tomorrow morning, or the day after the election, the new Iraqi government, the constituent assembly, said, Get out, the country would be taken over by the insurgents, because they have the upper hand.

They are going to -- (UNINTELLIGIBLE) they are going to, at some time, ask us to get out. But it's going to be after they have a modicum of security by Iraqi forces. So there isn't going to be an immediate demand to get out right after the election.

NGUYEN: Well, Senator Kennedy is really pushing for troops to come home and come home quickly. Is that gaining any ground in Washington?

NOVAK: Oh, you bet it is. Everybody wants them to get out. I had a private meeting with a very senior official in the government this week. And that -- and the administration, that's what he said, we've got to get the troops out. But we got to get them out under a safe procedure.

I think there is an absolute animus -- a prejudice, I should say, against leaving troops there for years to come, to having another Vietnam. So I think there's going to be tremendous pressure, Betty, all this year to start moving troops out, even if the situation on the ground is not perfect.

NGUYEN: How much of the presidency is riding on this Iraq election?

NOVAK: The entire Bush presidency. The president can talk about Social Security reform, he can talk about long-range tax reform, he can talk about moral values. But unless this, the book is closed, the page is closed on Iraq, his presidency is going to be blighted, just as Lyndon Johnson's was in Vietnam.

I think he knows that, and I think the people around him know it. They won't say that, but privately they feel that his whole presidency is staked on cleaning this situation up and getting out of there.

NGUYEN: And it's about to play out as we watch Iraqis cast their votes, a historic vote. Thank you, Bob Novak, as always, a pleasure.

NOVAK: Thank you, Betty.

NGUYEN: And you can see more of Bob Novak tonight at 7:00 Eastern. You can tune in for a special edition of "THE CAPITAL GANG," Iraq Votes. That guest is Congressman Marty Meehan, who just got back from a trip to Iraq.

HARRIS: Americans have a vested interest in the Iraqi election. That's obvious. Most importantly, a successful election is probably the best indication of whether U.S. forces in Iraq can leave sooner rather than later.

But the process that unfolds tomorrow is not one that American voters would easily recognize.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HARRIS (voice-over): Constant insurgent attacks and threats have everyone on edge. And U.S. and Iraqi security forces can only do so much. Military commanders say voter protection is not guaranteed, and election day violence is expected.

Finding the local polling place may be the first obstacle. There are some 6,000 polling centers around the country. Fourteen million Iraqis are eligible to vote, plus 1 million Iraqi expatriates. The single ballot includes candidates for a national assembly that will create a national constitution and pick the nation's leaders. Voters are also deciding on 18 provincial councils. And in the northern Kurdish region, they're electing their own parliament.

Most Iraqis may recognize just a few names on the ballot. The United Iraqi Alliance is made up mostly of Shi'ites and backed by the Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani. The Alliance holds the largest electoral slate of candidates, including several prominent religious leaders.

And the other most-recognized group is the Iraqi List, led by interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. This group is predominantly secular, with Shi'ite and Sunni candidates.

And some groups are boycotting, because of the ongoing presence of American troops on Iraqi soil. They say the occupation makes free and fair elections impossible. Despite all of the difficulties, Iraqis officials expect preliminary election results within a week, and official results 10 days after the election.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARRIS: To stay on top of all aspects of the Iraqi election, keep it right here on CNN for continuous special coverage.

Now, the White House will be closely watching Iraq's election tomorrow. President Bush has predicted the voting will set an example of democracy for the rest of the Middle East. And he has a lot on the line.

Live now to CNN's Elaine Quijano at the White House. Good morning, Elaine.

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Tony.

That's right, underscoring just how important this election is, President Bush has chosen not to spend the weekend at the presidential retreat at Camp David, as is customary on the weekends. Instead, aides say President Bush will be monitoring the election from here at the White House, receiving updates as need.

Now, the president, of course, has faced continued criticism over his postwar handling of Iraq and what some say were missteps by the administration, like not anticipating the intensity of the Iraq insurgency. But President Bush has not backed down from his position, maintaining that the world is better off without Saddam Hussein in power.

Now, later this morning, the president's radio address will focus on Iraq and how the administration views the election as a beginning. And that's a point the president emphasized yesterday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Sunday's election is the first step in a process that will allow Iraqis to write and pass a constitution that enshrines self-government and the rule of law. This history is changing the world because the advent of democracy in Iraq will serve as a powerful example to reformers throughout the entire Middle East.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUIJANO: Now, officials here are well aware that this election is a critical test for the Bush administration, specifically for President Bush's larger vision of spreading democracy worldwide. And while, for some weeks now, officials have acknowledged that with the ongoing violence, the election will not be perfect, they also maintain, Tony, that just having elections at all is a sign, they say, of significant progress, Tony.

HARRIS: Elaine Quijano at the White House. Elaine, thank you.

NGUYEN: A powerful winter storm threatens the Southeast, bringing sleet and freezing rain. Look at this live picture right now. You can tell it's cold. When will those roads clear up out there? Your forecast when CNN live today returns.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: And checking our top stories this Saturday morning, people across the Southeast are waking up to a winter ice storm. Georgia police say freezing rain is responsible for at least two deaths. North and South Carolina are also getting hit with sleet, snow, and ice.

As expected, violence in Baghdad is preceding tomorrow's Iraqi elections. Insurgents have staged attacks in a number of police stations and polling places across the country. And at least eight people are dead after two bombings at a U.S. and Iraqi military facility near Iraq's border with Iran.

Now, we are asking for your e-mails this morning. And boy, have you been responding. Today's question, Is Iraq worth the American sacrifice? What you are telling us, coming up a little later.

NGUYEN: But right now, it's time to go global and check those international developments.

HARRIS: And for that, let's turn now to Anand Naidoo at the international desk. Good morning, Anand.

ANAND NAIDOO, CNN INTERNATIONAL: Hey, good morning.

Checking out some of those other stories making news around the world.

And we start with two voices that are separate by only 90 miles of water, but it's taken more than a half a century for direct flights between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan. The first passenger jet from China touched down in the Taiwan capital, Taipei, today. That relaxation of restrictions comes at the lunar new year. That's one of the biggest holidays on the Chinese calendar.

And who knows? Some are hoping that the lessening of tensions, the cooling of tensions between Taiwan and China could be preceded by these flights between those two places.

Now, election news. No, not the Iraqi election. We're talking about elections in Gaza. Could this be a sign of the future? The radical Palestinian group Hamas has swept seven out of 10 councils in the first-ever local elections in Gaza. Hamas, which is sworn to destroying Israel, boycotted the presidential election earlier this month, but took part in these local polls. The voter turnout topped 80 percent.

And one other note from the region. Some news that we've been getting in the last few hours, reports are coming in saying that there will be a summit between the new Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, and the Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon. That summit scheduled to take place in about two weeks' time. We're just getting that news right now.

And finally, talk about survival. More than a month after the Asian tsunami, what was the miracle? This from the remote Andeman (ph) and Nicobar Islands of east India. The giant waves killed everyone on the island where Michael Mangel (ph) lived, but he survived, wandering the dense forests and praying. He was rescued by nearby islanders after 25 days.

And incidentally, in the time that he was left on his island, Michael Mangel survived on coconuts, and he even built a bed, a bed made from chopped wood and leaves. Quite a remarkable story.

That is a check of international developments. I'll be back tomorrow at the same time. Now back to Betty and Tony.

NGUYEN: Wow, that is amazing. Thank you, Anand.

Well, if you had a tough time keeping up with those headlines over the past week, we are here to help. Time now to rewind for a look at some of the big stories that made news over the last five days.

Congressional numbers-crunchers said Tuesday the federal budget deficit will reach $368 billion this fiscal year, but that figure does not include White House plans to overhaul Social Security and additional costs for the war in Iraq.

In a prelude to a possible Mideast summit, Palestinian cabinet minister Saeb Erakat met with a top adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on Wednesday. On the agenda, talking points for a future meeting between Sharon and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. It was one of several developments this week between Israel and the Palestinians, signaling progress in relations between both sides.

Also on Wednesday, Condoleezza Rice was sworn in as U.S. secretary of state. It happened just a few hours after the Senate voted to confirm her by a vote of 85 to 13. Meantime, a vote of 10 to eight from the Senate Judiciary Committee to have the full Senate consider Alberto Gonzales's nomination as attorney general. Democrats had objected to Gonzales's role in the administration's policies on the treatment of Iraqi prisoners.

HARRIS: Well, Atlanta is waking up to some icy conditions this morning. How long will this winter storm last? Your complete weather forecast when CNN SATURDAY MORNING returns.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

NGUYEN: Ahhhhh! Look at this. A live shot of Dallas this morning. That's Reunion Tower there, the big ball on top. Today, the Mavericks will face off against the Philadelphia 76ers at the American Airlines Arena. Rob's coming right up with your forecast and an update of the winter storm that is hitting the Southeast.

HARRIS: Kathleen Hays is standing by in Washington with a preview of "ON THE STORY." Good morning, Kathleen.

KATHLEEN HAYS, "ON THE STORY": Hi, there, Tony.

We're "ON THE STORY" from here in Washington to Iraq, on the eve of that country's election. Christiane Amanpour is in Baghdad, and Jane Arraf is in Baqubah. Dana Bash is "ON THE STORY" of what the Iraqi election means for President Bush. And Barbara Starr will talk about how the U.S. military is already preparing for the next phase. I'll talk about how the additional $80 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan busts the U.S. budget. And Kelli Arena talks about the terrorism war right here at home. That's all coming up, all "ON THE STORY." Great show, all about Iraq, Tony. Back to you.

HARRIS: Kathleen, thank you.

NGUYEN: We're looking forward to it.

Well, all morning long, we have been asking you for your thoughts about our e-mail question of the day, is Iraq worth the American sacrifice? We've been getting a lot of...

HARRIS: Yes.

NGUYEN: ... responses to this one.

Ron from Georgia writes, "If we could initiate democracy and assure these people an American-like country after the war, then possibly the sacrifices would be justified. History just does not teach us that this occurs. As proud as we Americans are of our country and its government, can you imagine someone else giving it to us?"

HARRIS: Hm. And this from Michael, "Is it worth it? Of course, the original invasion of Iraq was hyped and sold to the American public on bogus reasoning. However, we created a vacuum by toppling Saddam. We must help to create a stable nation prior to pulling out. And my son is now there to aid in this effort. He is serving as a combat medic based at Camp Cobra, northeast of Baghdad. And he says he thinks the job is worth it. If he says it is, then I say it is."

That's from Michael, Long Beach, California.

NGUYEN: Yes, we appreciate all your responses to our e-mail question of the day.

But right now, we want to talk about the weather outside.

HARRIS: Final check of weather across the nation now, with Rob Marciano in the Weather Center. Morning, Rob.

MARCIANO: Hi, Tony. Hi, Betty. The situation we were watching all week long is here.

(WEATHER FORECAST)

MARCIANO: Looks like Delta has canceled a number of flights, and some of their planes sit idle, probably very smartly so.

You guys, stay warm.

HARRIS: Yes, yes, you do the same.

(CROSSTALK)

HARRIS: You do the same. Thank you, Rob. Good morning.

MARCIANO: You bet.

HARRIS: Thank you for joining us this morning. "ON THE STORY" is coming up next.

NGUYEN: But we will see you again tomorrow morning. Thanks for watching.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com

Aired January 29, 2005 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BETTY NGUYEN, CNN ANCHOR: U.S. and Iraqi forces say the violent opposition from insurgents as they try to set up barricades around polling stations in Iraq.
Good morning from the CNN Center here in Atlanta. This is CNN SATURDAY MORNING. It is January 29. I'm Betty Nguyen.

TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Tony Harris. Nine a.m. in the East, and 6:00 a.m. in the West. Thank you for being with us.

Let's get caught up on the morning headlines now in the news.

Southerners who watched as winter gripped the Northeast last weekend are now frozen in this, this weekend. Sleet, freezing rain, and snow are moving through parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Multi-car crashes are reported on Atlanta-area expressways, and flights are delayed at the airport.

In Connecticut, Michael Ross wants to be executed for killing four women, but he'll have to wait until Monday at least. The execution was set for this morning, but it was postponed so a conflict-of-interest issue could be resolved involving Ross's attorney.

Two bombs exploded this morning in an Iraqi town northeast of Baqubah, killing at least eight people and wounding seven others. At least one of the explosions was the work of a suicide bomber. The target was a facility for coordinating U.S. and Iraqi military activities.

NGUYEN: And here's what we've got coming up this hour. Great expectations and even greater security. We will take you live to Baghdad on the eve of Iraq's first free election in half a century.

Also, the historic vote goes far beyond Iraq's borders. We will talk to some Iraqi expatriates who have mixed feelings about the election.

And watch your step. Ouch! That had to hurt.

(LAUGHTER)

HARRIS: Yes.

NGUYEN: A major ice storm bears down on the Southeast, making driving, and walking, apparently, dangerous. HARRIS: Well, this morning's fatal bombings in the Kurdish north came as preparations for tomorrow's Iraqi elections were being completed. The ballots are ready, the polling places are fortified. In the latest security move, the bridges in Baghdad have been locked down. A curfew is in effect. And most of the shops are closed in Iraq's capital.

CNN's Jeff Koinange is in Baghdad this morning. Jeff?

JEFF KOINANGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, there, Tony.

And you just put the, hit the nail on the head. Lockdown is how this city and this country looks right now, unprecedented security. But that didn't prevent a suicide bomber in the town of Khanaqin, that's about 60 miles northeast of Baqubah, right close to the Iranian border, from strapping himself to explosives, walking up to a place called the Joint Coordination Center, like a military base, detonating himself, and then, in the ensuing commotion, an explosive device went off, killing up to eight people, wounding several others.

Here in Baghdad, Baghdad police tell us that insurgents attacked a police station in one of the southern suburbs. They wounded two Iraqi policeman, and they made off with a police car. And why is that significant? Well, on election day, only certain vehicles will be allowed within sight of (UNINTELLIGIBLE) any polling stations. Insurgents stealing a police car, not a good sign.

But Tony, having said that, security around the city this morning, you can call it airtight. Both U.S. and Iraqi forces out in force. Major police checks all over town, with the military searching vehicles, searching individuals. Seems like Iraqis are heeding the call to stay away. There's a curfew in place. The Baghdad airport is closed. The country's borders are sealed.

It looks like Iraqis are heeding that call. But we don't -- so far, Tony, we know that a -- just under 13 million Iraqis have registered to vote. We can't tell how many actually are going to show up on election day.

But one more note for you here, Tony. On the first day of expatriate voting in 14 countries around the world, so far a little over 84,000 have voted. That's on first day. They have two more days to do that. Of course, you know, local Iraqis only have one day, and that's just hours away, Tony.

HARRIS: OK, Jeff, paint a picture for us of what Iraqis will face tomorrow as they walk up to these polling places. Describe that ring of security, if you would.

KOINANGE: There's a three-tier ring of security, Tony. First up will be Iraqi police, a cordon, police checks, the works. They'll be frisked, they'll be checked, metal detectors, the works.

Beyond that, Iraqi national guard. They will be doing exact same thing. And beyond that, within sight but out of earshot, U.S. soldiers, just in case there's any trouble. So if people showing up to line up for polls, there'll be long lines, Tony. They'll be waiting in line for a long time because of this frisking back and forth to make sure eventually, when they get to the polling centers, that they are not strapping anything on them.

Security, as they say here on the ground, Tony, will be unprecedented.

HARRIS: Bring your patience. Jeff Koinange in Baghdad for us. Jeff, we appreciate it, thank you.

NGUYEN: Now to Iraqis living abroad. They are also seizing the opportunity to cast votes, many for the first times in their lives. Polling sites have been opened in 14 countries, including the United States. One of the five American cities to host voting for the expatriates is New Carrollton, Maryland, which is a suburb outside of Washington's Beltway.

And CNN's Gary Nurenberg is there with the latest on voting. Hi, there, Gary.

GARY NURENBERG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Betty.

We thought we would start by showing you a small version of a sample ballot. This is a much smaller than the big ballot that Iraqis are facing inside. Complicated, lots of names, lots of parties, and lots of numbers. But the voters we talked to came well prepared, and knew exactly whom they wanted to vote for.

They are not at all being treated like American voters in an American election. If you want to vote here today, you're forced to stand in line in a freezing parking lot before you are escorted, one by one, into a security tent, where you're wanded and patted down. Obviously, the elections are an appealing symbolic target for terrorists.

CNN national security correspondent, homeland security correspondent Jeanne Meserve talked about the threat with Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TOM RIDGE, SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY: Several weeks ago, we actually started coordinating the activity with the state and locals. There's a visible added security presence, but there's no threat information that suggests that they are doing anything other than to vote peacefully in this very important election.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NURENBERG: Despite that, security here today is very heavy. Because this is really the only spot one can vote on the Eastern seaboard, drivers came from all over the Eastern seaboard to vote, many of them traveling all night to get here. Some yesterday were literally dancing with joy at the opportunity to cast the first vote of their lives. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We got the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) 36 years. (UNINTELLIGIBLE), no more killed, no more children killed from the Saddam.

NURENBERG (voice-over): This Maryland location is one of five where Iraqis can vote in the United States. Some of it looks like an American election, show ID, sign in. But most American voters don't get told to stick their fingers in ink to prevent them from voting again. It will mark the voters for days.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Vote for just one party. Just check off the box.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK.

NURENBERG: There's some privacy. And there is some evident pride when actual voting is done. The smiles continued outside.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I feel great. I feel great. I think that I am born new.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think this is the start of a new Iraq.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are so happy, and I can tell thanks for President George W. Bush. He did that for us. And we appreciate it.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

NURENBERG: That may not be a universally shared sentiment. There are about 240,000 Iraqis living in the United States eligible to vote. Only 26,000 of them registered to do so, Betty.

NGUYEN: CNN's Gary Nurenberg, we thank you for that report.

And we want to hear from you this morning. Here's our e-mail question. Is Iraq worth the American sacrifice? Send your thoughts to wam@cnn.com, and we'll share those comments throughout the morning.

HARRIS: Well, the Southeast is still being entombed -- pretty descriptive, isn't it?...

(LAUGHTER)

NGUYEN: Yes.

HARRIS: ... in ice. It began last night and could continue most of today.

CNN's Sara Dorsey has details from Atlanta.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SARA DORSEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Icy, wintry weather is bearing down on the Southeast, making even walking hard at times. And in parts of Georgia, driving has proved extremely dangerous.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I was just driving down the street, I was driving normally, and (UNINTELLIGIBLE), and all of a sudden, I went to lightly put my foot on the brake, and all of a sudden, the car just started skidding, and I couldn't stop it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We were trying to brake. We brake to, you know, we tried to brake to slow the bus down and avoid him, and he just kept sliding, and we hit him.

DORSEY: Sixteen cars crunched in this pileup in Lawrenceville as the storm moved in and the weather continues to worsen.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I mean, it's just icy. The guy spun out way in front of us and kept circling back and back and back, and went right into us.

DORSEY: Preparations around metro Atlanta began in full force yesterday as road crews geared up to handle the expected ice. When it fell, though, salt didn't seem to be enough to help drivers.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DORSEY: And here's a live look -- well, not a live look, at Hartsfield-Jackson...

HARRIS: Well, it is a mess.

DORSEY: ... International Airport. It is a mess. Still, there it is. Still some ice and rain falling there, but it is open. That is the good news for those of you trying to get out. Delta, the biggest carrier, is reporting many canceled flights. It's operating at about 50 percent of what it would on a typical Saturday morning.

If you do have a flight going in or out of Atlanta today, the airport suggests you call your specific airline or check on the Hartsfield-Jackson Web site, for delays and cancellations, because there are, of course, are many, Tony.

HARRIS: And you're going to be checking power outages throughout the day, right?

DORSEY: Yes, we've been making calls.

HARRIS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

DORSEY: There are some in several states.

HARRIS: Oooooh, my.

DORSEY: And we'll keep you updated as the day goes on.

HARRIS: Hotlanta, huh? I don't believe it...

NGUYEN: Not any more.

HARRIS: ... not today.

NGUYEN: Yes, exactly.

HARRIS: That's right.

NGUYEN: Well, things could get worse across the Southeast before they get better. There's more ice, more snow, all of that on the way.

HARRIS: OK, so here's the question. When will the Southeast start to thaw? Let's go to meteorologist Rob Marciano in the CNN Weather Center. Morning, Rob.

ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Morning, Tony, Betty.

Well, you can (UNINTELLIGIBLE) have faith in that we will eventually thaw, because it typically doesn't get this cold in this part of the world.

(WEATHER FORECAST)

MARCIANO: So it's a pretty big storm. We'll keep an eye on it throughout the weekend, Tony and Betty, (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

HARRIS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE), thank you, sir.

Well, thousands of Iraqis across the globe have already voted, but some expatriates are boycotting the election.

NGUYEN: And our Bob Novak looks at what the Iraqi elections will mean for President Bush.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

Welcome back to CNN SATURDAY MORNING. I'm Betty Nguyen.

We want to check our top stories right now.

The final touches are being put on more than 30,000 polling places across Iraq. It is the eve of the nation's first free election in half a century.

Meantime, Iraqis in 14 other countries have already started voting.

Slippery roads across the Southeast this morning as the region braces for a major storm. Icy roads are blamed for two traffic deaths in Georgia. Up to four inches of snow could fall across South Carolina.

And we will be hearing from Michael Jackson tomorrow morning. The pop star will put a video statement on his Web site commenting on leaks of grand jury testimony in his child molestation case. Jury selection for Jackson's trial, that starts on Monday.

And still ahead right here on CNN SATURDAY MORNING, much more coverage of Iraq's election. It's not your typical vote, to say the least. And American voters might cringe when they hear what the Iraqis have to go through. We'll give you those details later this hour.

HARRIS: Well, Iraqis living abroad are also able to cast absentee votes this weekend. Fourteen nations are hosting election sites, from the United States, to the United Kingdom, to the United Arab Emirates. About a quarter million Iraqi expatriates have registered to vote, but some are boycotting the election.

We have two guests representing those opposing views. Noaman Muna is the chairman of the Iraqi Al Alama (ph) Association. He voted yesterday. And Houzan Mahmoud is boycotting the election. She's the U.K. head of the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) Organization of Women's Freedom in Iraq.

And Houzan, let me start with you. First, tell me why you're boycotting the election.

HOUZAN MAHMOUD, U.K. HEAD, OWFI: Well, basically, because I see that this election is not benefiting the Iraqi people. And it's only the continuation of occupation of Iraq and the legitimization of U.S. politics in Iraq.

And it's actually not -- and that those people who are already candidating themselves to be elected, they are not representing us in any way, and that people in Iraq did not have chance to know these party's programs and agenda, and that this is not a free election in any way, and that among the suicide attacks, terrorism by Islamic groups, terrorization in women generally, how can people go out and vote? And how can people be aware that who are they voting for?

So I think this is not legitimate, and that it is actually only going to further the terrorism is going on in Iraq.

HARRIS: Houzan, you don't see this as a first step in the process?

MAHMOUD: Well, this isn't a first step, actually, because, from the very beginning of the occupation, U.S.A. try to legitimize its politics in Iraq through creating a variety of right-wing nationalists and Islamist groups in its so-called ruling council. Later on they changed the name into governing council, and later on into interim government.

And now, this election process is the continuation of the same process that has begun from the very beginning...

HARRIS: OK.

MAHMOUD: ... of the occupation, and that actually it's not benefiting us in any way.

HARRIS: Noaman, all right, weigh in here. What do you think? You voted yesterday.

NOAMAN MUNA, IRAQI VOTER: I did vote yesterday. And I was extremely happy to vote yesterday. I hold completely opposite view, because I believe this is a milestone, an important milestone and step forward towards building democracy in Iraq, towards ending occupation. Without it, we will continue to have the occupation forever and ever. We need to have a legitimate government. (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: Do you feel this is a -- No, go ahead.

MUNA: And I believe there is a widespread representation in this election. It is not ideal. There is no way that this could be an ideal election in terms of representing the whole of Iraq. We are living under occupation. We are living under the threat of terrorism, which is a daily threat, which we are fighting. But equally, there is a very widespread representation, (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: OK, Noaman, let me stop you there...

MUNA: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: Let me stop there, and...

MUNA: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE) whole political spectrum.

HARRIS: Let me stop there and follow up. But what are you voting for? You're voting for this national assembly. Who are the people who have the real control? I mean, if you have a problem, for example, with electricity, in Baghdad, I mean, who do you call? Who will you be able to call in this assembly? What will it mean for everyday Iraqis trying to live their life?

MUNA: Well, to start with, the -- although the assembly will elect a government, or will choose a government, which is a president, and the presidential council will select a government like any other country, there is a process of selecting a prime minister, and that prime minister will be subject to a vote within this assembly.

Now, that is said, obviously, if there are problems in the future, you call on the government. But one of the most important element which we should not forget in having this assembly is the writing of the constitution.

HARRIS: Yes?

MUNA: We haven't had a permanent constitution for many, many, many years. And the Iraqis are seeing this as a step to stopping dictatorship...

HARRIS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

MUNA: ... from coming back into Iraq...

HARRIS: OK...

MUNA: ... and to stopping the -- Carry on, sorry.

HARRIS: All right. Houzan, let me bring you back in here. You get an opportunity with this election to seat a general assembly that will work on a constitution. That's the first step. And then you move forward with elections for officers and officials to run the country. That seems like the framework for an operation that eventually turns the country back over to Iraqis.

MAHMOUD: Well, I doubt it very much, because it depends who are these people that are going to write (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: OK, so what...

MAHMOUD: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: ... is the alternative?

MAHMOUD: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: What is the alternative?

MAHMOUD: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: What's the alternative plan?

MAHMOUD: Well, we have an alternative. We have -- we have the progressive secular people in Iraq. We have progressive secular organizations that have been fighting for equality, for freedom, for secular constitution. Among them, Organization of Women's Freedom in Iraq, the Federation of Workers Councils and Unions in Iraq, the Union of Unemployed, Organization in Defense of Children in Iraq, Worker (UNINTELLIGIBLE) Party of Iraq.

These are all people who have been in the forefront of fighting for freedom, for equality, for egalitarian state system to be established in Iraq. And basically, these are the only people who are capable of bringing a free -- a kind of...

HARRIS: OK.

MAHMOUD: ... an egalitarian state system that treats people equally, regardless of gender, religious and ethnic background.

HARRIS: I hear you.

MAHMOUD: But what we see is, through this election, sorry, let me continue this...

HARRIS: OK, go ahead.

MAHMOUD: ... that it is the reproduction, it is the reproduction of the ethnic and religious division in Iraq. And that is not benefiting Iraqi people. And that the -- even the concept of equal citizenship will be undermined by this, because you are going to be identified by your tribe or your religious sect or your ethnic minority. This will not serve the Iraqi people at all.

HARRIS: OK. Thank you both. Thank you both. Noaman Muna and Houzan Mahmoud, thank you both. We appreciate your taking the time to talk to us this morning. MUNA: Thank you.

MAHMOUD: Thank you very much indeed.

MUNA: OK.

HARRIS: OK.

NGUYEN: Condoleezza Rice gets grilled about U.S. policy in Iraq, just as Iraqis prepare to head to the polls. What's Washington thinking? Robert Novak joins us with some inside scoop from the nation's capital. That's coming up.

But first, a CNN extra, 39 percent of American workers would sacrifice a $5,000 raise for additional time off, according to Salary.com. That number is up 20 percent from just three years ago. And check this out. The average number of paid days off a worker gets after five years of service in the U.S. is 21.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: Good morning, Chicago. After five straight wins, can the Baby Bulls pull off another one?

I got to tell you something, there hasn't been this much excitement, Betty, over basketball in the Windy City, dare I say, since...

NGUYEN: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)?

HARRIS: ... Michael Jordan left, number 23.

NGUYEN: Mmmmmmmm.

HARRIS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) North Carolina, the Bulls go head to head with the Boston Celtics tonight at the United Center.

NGUYEN: That's a bold statement there, Tony.

But you know what else is making a bold statement, Mother Nature. Boy, we...

HARRIS: Yes.

NGUYEN: ... we saw thin in Atlanta, Rob.

MARCIANO: Yes. Lenny Kravitz playing in the background.

HARRIS: Yes.

MARCIANO: Nice little wake-me-up. You're right, dinner rebuilding here in Chicago. So I got to get on to weather.

NGUYEN: OK.

(LAUGHTER) MARCIANO: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) music out of my ear. I want to talk sports with Tony (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

(LAUGHTER)

MARCIANO: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) north or the south (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HARRIS: Well, good.

MARCIANO: ... pink showing up.

(WEATHER FORECAST)

MARCIANO: It is not nice out there. Let's just camp out here tonight, guys.

(LAUGHTER)

HARRIS: Yes...

MARCIANO: All right?

HARRIS: ... that's what I was thinking, (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

MARCIANO: Little slumber party?

HARRIS: Sure, sure.

NGUYEN: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) ice pellets, I mean. Don't leave.

HARRIS: I'm not, I'm...

NGUYEN: You're staying here.

HARRIS: Yes, I guess I am. I thought I was going to (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

NGUYEN: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) cot on the side of the desk.

HARRIS: All right.

MARCIANO: Be careful out there, if you're (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

HARRIS: Yes, thank you, Rob, appreciate it.

MARCIANO: All right.

HARRIS: Ooh.

NGUYEN: All right. So when Iraqis go into the voting booth, exactly who will be there? But who will they be voting for? We've got the details on how this election will work, when CNN SATURDAY MORNING returns.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) NGUYEN: Iraqis prepare to head to the polls, and the political leadership in Washington keeps an anxious watch on those proceedings.

We want to welcome you back this morning. I'm Betty Nguyen.

HARRIS: And I'm Tony Harris.

That story coming up.

First, here's what's happening now in the news.

Freezing rain and sleet are hammering parts of the Southeast. We can testify that means slippery streets, closed roads, and icy power lines. At least two people have been killed in auto accidents in north Georgia. And the storm is moving in on the Carolinas. Utility crews estimate thousands of people may be without power by the end of the day.

Another surge of violence in Iraq just one day before historic elections. In the worst attack, insurgents killed at least eight people and wounded seven others in bombings in the Kurdish north. In Baghdad, insurgents targeted police stations. Police say two officers were wounded and a police vehicle was stolen.

The military announced today that two American soldiers were killed when their helicopter crashed in western Baghdad yesterday. The cause of the crash is still under investigation, but military officials say there's no evidence of hostile fire.

NGUYEN: A special edition on The Novak Zone this morning. It is the eve of Iraq's first free election in half a century. Iraqis around the world are already voting, and their countrymen back home are getting ready to cast their historic ballots.

Meantime, Washington will be anxiously and cautiously awaiting those results.

And that's where we find our Bob Novak. Good morning to you, Bob.

ROBERT NOVAK, HOST, THE NOVAK ZONE: Good morning, Betty.

NGUYEN: I think a lot of this really depends on voter turnout, especially in Iraq. President Bush urged just this past week Iraqis to defy the insurgents, go to the polls, cast their ballot. What kind of voter turnout are you expecting?

NOVAK: I think there's going to be a huge voter turnout.

Now, I think it's easy to President Bush to say, Get out there and vote. They're not shooting at him. But I have great admiration for these Iraqi people who are getting out and risking their lives to vote. But it's the first time in their lives, and I think it's going to be a big turnout. I don't, so in that sense, the insurgents' offensive has failed.

NGUYEN: A lot of candidates on the ballot. Does the U.S. have a favorite in this race?

NOVAK: All the favorites of the U.S. is, is to get a lot of votes. I don't believe they really -- I think they, what they really want is diversity. They don't want the Shi'ite majority to really dominate and have no representation for anybody else. I think they want a lot of people to win, a lot of diversity, and a lot of votes.

NGUYEN: Once all these votes are counted, Bob, is it realistic to say that the Iraqis will then be ready to govern themselves?

NOVAK: I think they can govern themselves fine. The question is can they protect themselves from very well-organized terrorist attacks and insurgency? That is the question. When are they going to be ready to protect themselves?

And it, I don't believe that the United States government is saying, You have to have full protection. I think they are going to say, As long as you can have a modicum of protection, we're going to get out, because, Betty. there is an enormous desire in all quarters, all the way from Teddy Kennedy to Don Rumsfeld, to get the troops out of Iraq soon and faster than previous anticipated plans.

NGUYEN: And on that same note, there's been a lot of speculation that once this new government is in place, that they will tell the U.S. to go ahead and leave the country, that they will start to secure themselves. Do you expect that's going to take quite some time? Or is that going to happen fairly soon after the votes are counted?

NOVAK: No, I don't believe they're going to tell us to get out, because they're not able to protect themselves. And if tomorrow morning, or the day after the election, the new Iraqi government, the constituent assembly, said, Get out, the country would be taken over by the insurgents, because they have the upper hand.

They are going to -- (UNINTELLIGIBLE) they are going to, at some time, ask us to get out. But it's going to be after they have a modicum of security by Iraqi forces. So there isn't going to be an immediate demand to get out right after the election.

NGUYEN: Well, Senator Kennedy is really pushing for troops to come home and come home quickly. Is that gaining any ground in Washington?

NOVAK: Oh, you bet it is. Everybody wants them to get out. I had a private meeting with a very senior official in the government this week. And that -- and the administration, that's what he said, we've got to get the troops out. But we got to get them out under a safe procedure.

I think there is an absolute animus -- a prejudice, I should say, against leaving troops there for years to come, to having another Vietnam. So I think there's going to be tremendous pressure, Betty, all this year to start moving troops out, even if the situation on the ground is not perfect.

NGUYEN: How much of the presidency is riding on this Iraq election?

NOVAK: The entire Bush presidency. The president can talk about Social Security reform, he can talk about long-range tax reform, he can talk about moral values. But unless this, the book is closed, the page is closed on Iraq, his presidency is going to be blighted, just as Lyndon Johnson's was in Vietnam.

I think he knows that, and I think the people around him know it. They won't say that, but privately they feel that his whole presidency is staked on cleaning this situation up and getting out of there.

NGUYEN: And it's about to play out as we watch Iraqis cast their votes, a historic vote. Thank you, Bob Novak, as always, a pleasure.

NOVAK: Thank you, Betty.

NGUYEN: And you can see more of Bob Novak tonight at 7:00 Eastern. You can tune in for a special edition of "THE CAPITAL GANG," Iraq Votes. That guest is Congressman Marty Meehan, who just got back from a trip to Iraq.

HARRIS: Americans have a vested interest in the Iraqi election. That's obvious. Most importantly, a successful election is probably the best indication of whether U.S. forces in Iraq can leave sooner rather than later.

But the process that unfolds tomorrow is not one that American voters would easily recognize.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HARRIS (voice-over): Constant insurgent attacks and threats have everyone on edge. And U.S. and Iraqi security forces can only do so much. Military commanders say voter protection is not guaranteed, and election day violence is expected.

Finding the local polling place may be the first obstacle. There are some 6,000 polling centers around the country. Fourteen million Iraqis are eligible to vote, plus 1 million Iraqi expatriates. The single ballot includes candidates for a national assembly that will create a national constitution and pick the nation's leaders. Voters are also deciding on 18 provincial councils. And in the northern Kurdish region, they're electing their own parliament.

Most Iraqis may recognize just a few names on the ballot. The United Iraqi Alliance is made up mostly of Shi'ites and backed by the Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani. The Alliance holds the largest electoral slate of candidates, including several prominent religious leaders.

And the other most-recognized group is the Iraqi List, led by interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. This group is predominantly secular, with Shi'ite and Sunni candidates.

And some groups are boycotting, because of the ongoing presence of American troops on Iraqi soil. They say the occupation makes free and fair elections impossible. Despite all of the difficulties, Iraqis officials expect preliminary election results within a week, and official results 10 days after the election.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARRIS: To stay on top of all aspects of the Iraqi election, keep it right here on CNN for continuous special coverage.

Now, the White House will be closely watching Iraq's election tomorrow. President Bush has predicted the voting will set an example of democracy for the rest of the Middle East. And he has a lot on the line.

Live now to CNN's Elaine Quijano at the White House. Good morning, Elaine.

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Tony.

That's right, underscoring just how important this election is, President Bush has chosen not to spend the weekend at the presidential retreat at Camp David, as is customary on the weekends. Instead, aides say President Bush will be monitoring the election from here at the White House, receiving updates as need.

Now, the president, of course, has faced continued criticism over his postwar handling of Iraq and what some say were missteps by the administration, like not anticipating the intensity of the Iraq insurgency. But President Bush has not backed down from his position, maintaining that the world is better off without Saddam Hussein in power.

Now, later this morning, the president's radio address will focus on Iraq and how the administration views the election as a beginning. And that's a point the president emphasized yesterday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Sunday's election is the first step in a process that will allow Iraqis to write and pass a constitution that enshrines self-government and the rule of law. This history is changing the world because the advent of democracy in Iraq will serve as a powerful example to reformers throughout the entire Middle East.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUIJANO: Now, officials here are well aware that this election is a critical test for the Bush administration, specifically for President Bush's larger vision of spreading democracy worldwide. And while, for some weeks now, officials have acknowledged that with the ongoing violence, the election will not be perfect, they also maintain, Tony, that just having elections at all is a sign, they say, of significant progress, Tony.

HARRIS: Elaine Quijano at the White House. Elaine, thank you.

NGUYEN: A powerful winter storm threatens the Southeast, bringing sleet and freezing rain. Look at this live picture right now. You can tell it's cold. When will those roads clear up out there? Your forecast when CNN live today returns.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: And checking our top stories this Saturday morning, people across the Southeast are waking up to a winter ice storm. Georgia police say freezing rain is responsible for at least two deaths. North and South Carolina are also getting hit with sleet, snow, and ice.

As expected, violence in Baghdad is preceding tomorrow's Iraqi elections. Insurgents have staged attacks in a number of police stations and polling places across the country. And at least eight people are dead after two bombings at a U.S. and Iraqi military facility near Iraq's border with Iran.

Now, we are asking for your e-mails this morning. And boy, have you been responding. Today's question, Is Iraq worth the American sacrifice? What you are telling us, coming up a little later.

NGUYEN: But right now, it's time to go global and check those international developments.

HARRIS: And for that, let's turn now to Anand Naidoo at the international desk. Good morning, Anand.

ANAND NAIDOO, CNN INTERNATIONAL: Hey, good morning.

Checking out some of those other stories making news around the world.

And we start with two voices that are separate by only 90 miles of water, but it's taken more than a half a century for direct flights between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan. The first passenger jet from China touched down in the Taiwan capital, Taipei, today. That relaxation of restrictions comes at the lunar new year. That's one of the biggest holidays on the Chinese calendar.

And who knows? Some are hoping that the lessening of tensions, the cooling of tensions between Taiwan and China could be preceded by these flights between those two places.

Now, election news. No, not the Iraqi election. We're talking about elections in Gaza. Could this be a sign of the future? The radical Palestinian group Hamas has swept seven out of 10 councils in the first-ever local elections in Gaza. Hamas, which is sworn to destroying Israel, boycotted the presidential election earlier this month, but took part in these local polls. The voter turnout topped 80 percent.

And one other note from the region. Some news that we've been getting in the last few hours, reports are coming in saying that there will be a summit between the new Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, and the Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon. That summit scheduled to take place in about two weeks' time. We're just getting that news right now.

And finally, talk about survival. More than a month after the Asian tsunami, what was the miracle? This from the remote Andeman (ph) and Nicobar Islands of east India. The giant waves killed everyone on the island where Michael Mangel (ph) lived, but he survived, wandering the dense forests and praying. He was rescued by nearby islanders after 25 days.

And incidentally, in the time that he was left on his island, Michael Mangel survived on coconuts, and he even built a bed, a bed made from chopped wood and leaves. Quite a remarkable story.

That is a check of international developments. I'll be back tomorrow at the same time. Now back to Betty and Tony.

NGUYEN: Wow, that is amazing. Thank you, Anand.

Well, if you had a tough time keeping up with those headlines over the past week, we are here to help. Time now to rewind for a look at some of the big stories that made news over the last five days.

Congressional numbers-crunchers said Tuesday the federal budget deficit will reach $368 billion this fiscal year, but that figure does not include White House plans to overhaul Social Security and additional costs for the war in Iraq.

In a prelude to a possible Mideast summit, Palestinian cabinet minister Saeb Erakat met with a top adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on Wednesday. On the agenda, talking points for a future meeting between Sharon and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. It was one of several developments this week between Israel and the Palestinians, signaling progress in relations between both sides.

Also on Wednesday, Condoleezza Rice was sworn in as U.S. secretary of state. It happened just a few hours after the Senate voted to confirm her by a vote of 85 to 13. Meantime, a vote of 10 to eight from the Senate Judiciary Committee to have the full Senate consider Alberto Gonzales's nomination as attorney general. Democrats had objected to Gonzales's role in the administration's policies on the treatment of Iraqi prisoners.

HARRIS: Well, Atlanta is waking up to some icy conditions this morning. How long will this winter storm last? Your complete weather forecast when CNN SATURDAY MORNING returns.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

NGUYEN: Ahhhhh! Look at this. A live shot of Dallas this morning. That's Reunion Tower there, the big ball on top. Today, the Mavericks will face off against the Philadelphia 76ers at the American Airlines Arena. Rob's coming right up with your forecast and an update of the winter storm that is hitting the Southeast.

HARRIS: Kathleen Hays is standing by in Washington with a preview of "ON THE STORY." Good morning, Kathleen.

KATHLEEN HAYS, "ON THE STORY": Hi, there, Tony.

We're "ON THE STORY" from here in Washington to Iraq, on the eve of that country's election. Christiane Amanpour is in Baghdad, and Jane Arraf is in Baqubah. Dana Bash is "ON THE STORY" of what the Iraqi election means for President Bush. And Barbara Starr will talk about how the U.S. military is already preparing for the next phase. I'll talk about how the additional $80 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan busts the U.S. budget. And Kelli Arena talks about the terrorism war right here at home. That's all coming up, all "ON THE STORY." Great show, all about Iraq, Tony. Back to you.

HARRIS: Kathleen, thank you.

NGUYEN: We're looking forward to it.

Well, all morning long, we have been asking you for your thoughts about our e-mail question of the day, is Iraq worth the American sacrifice? We've been getting a lot of...

HARRIS: Yes.

NGUYEN: ... responses to this one.

Ron from Georgia writes, "If we could initiate democracy and assure these people an American-like country after the war, then possibly the sacrifices would be justified. History just does not teach us that this occurs. As proud as we Americans are of our country and its government, can you imagine someone else giving it to us?"

HARRIS: Hm. And this from Michael, "Is it worth it? Of course, the original invasion of Iraq was hyped and sold to the American public on bogus reasoning. However, we created a vacuum by toppling Saddam. We must help to create a stable nation prior to pulling out. And my son is now there to aid in this effort. He is serving as a combat medic based at Camp Cobra, northeast of Baghdad. And he says he thinks the job is worth it. If he says it is, then I say it is."

That's from Michael, Long Beach, California.

NGUYEN: Yes, we appreciate all your responses to our e-mail question of the day.

But right now, we want to talk about the weather outside.

HARRIS: Final check of weather across the nation now, with Rob Marciano in the Weather Center. Morning, Rob.

MARCIANO: Hi, Tony. Hi, Betty. The situation we were watching all week long is here.

(WEATHER FORECAST)

MARCIANO: Looks like Delta has canceled a number of flights, and some of their planes sit idle, probably very smartly so.

You guys, stay warm.

HARRIS: Yes, yes, you do the same.

(CROSSTALK)

HARRIS: You do the same. Thank you, Rob. Good morning.

MARCIANO: You bet.

HARRIS: Thank you for joining us this morning. "ON THE STORY" is coming up next.

NGUYEN: But we will see you again tomorrow morning. Thanks for watching.

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