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CNN Saturday Morning News

Katrina's Second Strike; Oil Prices

Aired August 27, 2005 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Our top story this morning, it's going to strike twice, but not, we understand, in the same place. After drenching south Florida, Katrina -- look at the radar picture right now -- is a category three storm, and it is swirling over the open Gulf of Mexico. Somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle is in the eye of the storm.
The latest tracking on the hurricane is straight ahead.

Let's get you now to Bonnie Schneider for the latest information on Hurricane Katrina. Bonnie, what can you tell us?

BONNIE SCHNEIDER, CNN METEOROLOGIST: All right. Tony.

Well, the latest we can tell you from the latest advisory as of 8:00 this morning, right now the storm still has maximum winds at 115 miles per hour. But what's important to note from this advisory is the movement has not changed. It's still moving to the west at seven miles per hour.

You're probably wondering, why does that matter? Well, it matters to a lot of folks that are in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, especially in Florida. The further along this storm moves to the west before it turns to the north will really determine where the hurricane will strike when it makes its second landfall.

So for the residents on the eastern part of the Gulf coast, the longer this westerly track continues, the better for you. Unfortunately, not the better for the central Gulf coast, because eventually that northerly turn will occur.

And according to these computer projections, we're likely to see that turn develop into Sunday and Monday. And as the storm works its way over this warm water, the -- it's likely to strengthen. We're talking about category four intensity as early as Monday into Sunday, possibly, even through down here, you can see, as that turn occurs. We're talking about a gradual increase in intensity.

Landfall somewhere in the vicinity of Monday, anywhere in the vicinity of this cone of uncertainty, which does stretch from the panhandle of Florida back out toward eastern Louisiana. The center of the cone, the area most likely to be most affected at the point, it looks like, Louisiana into Alabama. But really, anyone that lives in this region needs to keep a close watch on Katrina.

One of the reasons we're going to see such intensity, a burst of intensity, occur is the loop current. We've got warm water flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico -- into the Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean Sea. And actually, this current develops into little what we call eddies, pools of deep warm water spin off. And that means just pockets of warm water. They can go as deep as 600 feet.

And if you're wondering, why is this important? Well, once a hurricane passes over these little pockets of warm water, it just intensifies. It's almost like fuel to the fire, fuel injection that can bring the category strength up very quickly. We saw that back in 1999 with Hurricane Opal. It went from a category one to a category four, so in a very short amount of time.

So you can see that will occur likely with Katrina, not quite the variance in category, because we're already up to category three right now. But once this storm comes over these pockets of warm, deep water along this loop current, we're likely to see the intensification grow even further, taking this storm all the way up to category four by the time we see the storm make landfall.

That's likely to occur, it looks like, at this point, on Monday. Right now, the storm is still making a westerly track, and eventually that northerly turn is expected to occur, and eventually making landfall on Monday somewhere in the central Gulf coast.

I'll keep you up to date. But we were talking about that warm, deep water earlier, Tony, and I think that's really going to make a big, big contribution...

HARRIS: That is a...

SCHNEIDER: ... to the development of this storm.

HARRIS: That's a great graphic. That really shows that off...

SCHNEIDER: Thank you.

HARRIS: ... very, very well.

BETTY NGUYEN, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, Bonnie, let me ask you this. We know Katrina is a powerful storm, possibly going to be a category four, maybe even five, (INAUDIBLE), you know, if it hits. I mean, that's a really powerful storm. But how fast is this thing moving? Because we're looking at your map there, and it showed that by Tuesday, it's still going to be a category one storm over land.

HARRIS: Yes.

SCHNEIDER: Right. Once it does interact with land, it will weaken. Right now, the movement is to the west at seven. And historically speaking with Katrina, we've seen this storm move very, very slowly, and that's why we saw so much rain, 20 inches of rain in south Florida.

Once the storm comes onto land, it looks like somewhere in the vicinity of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, the storm is so large and so powerful that it's going to take a lot to really knock it down. So, yes, we are expecting the intensity to contain itself at hurricane status even after landfall. Not uncommon with category four storms, Betty.

NGUYEN: So we're talking about a lot of flooding.

SCHNEIDER: Yes.

(CROSSTALK)

NGUYEN: OK, thank you, Bonnie.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

NGUYEN: Well, Florida Governor Jeb Bush is asking the White House to declare at least two Florida counties federal disaster areas. Hurricane Katrina came ashore Thursday as a category one storm, and as much as 18 inches of rain flooded streets and homes throughout southeast Florida.

Look at this neighborhood.

Strong winds up to 80 miles an hour knocked down trees and power lines. Katrina is the fifth hurricane to directly hit Florida in the last year.

HARRIS: Well, oil prices are high enough, and now Hurricane Katrina is on a path to shut down oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. When a hurricane is in sight, oil rigs have to stop production, and that shuts down profits.

CNN's Ali Velshi has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Noble Max Smith weighs in at about 24 million pounds. It's an oil rig anchored to the seabed by 18 miles of steel cable. Its drills can bore 25,000 feet below the Earth's surface.

It's mighty, but it's no match for a serious hurricane. More than 4,000 floating rigs and fixed platforms dot the nearly 2 billion acres of underwater oilfield that is the Gulf of Mexico.

THERALD MARTIN, NOBLE CORPORATION: What we're doing at this time, we're at level two, stage two. So we are starting evacuation of nonessential personnel. This is the first chopper to start taking people back to shore that's not needed on the rig to prepare for hurricane evacuation.

VELSHI: As Hurricane Katrina ripped through southern Florida, it took a wide turn west into the Gulf. It was still hundreds of miles away, but the company that knows Noble Max Smith wasn't taking chances, not with its $300 million rig, and not with 90 crew members aboard.

TOMMY MCNABB, OIL RIG MANAGER: And our goal is, is to have everyone off the vessel, because safety is our number-one concern, to where we protect our personnel and have them off the rig within 24 hours before a hurricane gets to the rig.

VELSHI: This scene played out on many other rigs and platforms in the Gulf. And prepping rigs for a storm means not drilling wells or drawing oil or gas, and that drives prices up. More than a third of U.S. oil production comes out of the Gulf. Even a threat of a slowdown roils the oil markets.

MCNABB: And this type of event with a hurricane, it stops all that operation, so you're no longer performing a service of drilling a well, looking for oil and gas.

VELSHI: But with the hurricane coming, they have to evacuate. On this rig, nine people who were deemed nonessential to the drilling operations are the first to go. Thousands could be evacuated from all over the Gulf by Tuesday if Katrina doesn't change her plans.

Tommy McNabb remembers last September, when Hurricane Ivan shut down every offshore rig and platform in the Gulf.

MCNABB: With the weather, you just -- it's so unpredictable, you never know from one day to the next what it's going to do, so you got to plan ahead for this.

VELSHI: For now, Tommy's men -- and they are all men -- are safe. They're staying put, and they're securing the well. It's part of a well-rehearsed plan to abandon the rig if Katrina intensifies.

As clouds roll into the central Gulf, we're evacuated too. We're definitely nonessential.

For everyone now, it's not about the price of oil, it's about staying safe, protecting the rig, and avoiding the wrath of Katrina.

Ali Velshi, CNN, in the Gulf of Mexico.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: Keep watching CNN, your hurricane headquarters.

NGUYEN: Let's talk politics right now. President Bush seems to be facing a storm of disapproval in the polls. A Gallup poll taken this week shows his approval rating at just 40 percent, an all-time low. It is down from 45 percent in a poll taken just a couple weeks ago. Fifty-six percent of Americans disapprove of the job he's doing. That is up from 51 percent in the last poll.

The poll also says 34 percent of Americans are satisfied with how things are going in the country today, but 62 percent are dissatisfied.

HARRIS: Well, Mr. Bush will get some extra support outside his front door this afternoon. More than 3,000 people are planning a pro- Bush rally near his Crawford, Texas, ranch. It's meant to counter a three-week-old anti-war rally led by Cindy Sheehan, whose son was killed in Iraq.

But just who are these dueling supporters, and who is paying for their journey to Texas? CNN's Ed Lavandera takes a closer look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ED LAVANDERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The 'You Don't Speak for Me, Cindy' caravan rolled into Glendale, Arizona, a few nights ago. Deborah Johns is the lead driver. She describes herself as the other mother, who speaks for thousands of military families supporting the Iraq war. Her son served two tours in Iraq and came home alive.

DEBRA JOHNS: We have been silent too long. And the Cindys of the world are the ones that have gotten -- have been the squeaky wheels that are getting the grease.

LAVANDERA: The small caravan looks like a grassroots response to Cindy Sheehan's protest, but it's funded and organized by MoveAmericaForward.org, a conservative group that formed the caravan to counter Cindy Sheehan's protest. It's organized rallies in California, Arizona, and Texas. Crawford is the last stop.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Bring my son home.

LAVANDERA: Cindy Sheehan likes to say she's simply the spark of a movement that has mobilized thousands. But the spark turns into a flame with the help of a public relations firm and a nonprofit group funded by Ben Cohen. He's the Ben in Ben and Jerry's Ice Cream.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Face this way.

LAVANDERA: The anti-war protest strategy is to surround Cindy Sheehan with other grieving mothers and wives.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm here because Cindy has given me hope for the first time in a very long time.

LAVANDERA: The message they try to send is that this protest is bigger than just one woman.

CINDY SHEEHAN: But I know I speak for thousands of them. I know we speak for thousands of them, when we want to know, what is the noble cause our children died for? What is the noble cause they're still fighting for and dying for every day?

LAVANDERA: This is protesting in the media age, grassroots movements with sophisticated public relations techniques, choreographing photo ops, helping spread the message, but at the same time, trying to preserve that grassroots image.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You don't know who Halliburton is.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Don't do to them what you did to us in 'Nam.

(CROSSTALK)

LAVANDERA: The rhetoric seems to distort reality. With these protesters getting so much attention, you might get the impression Crawford is overrun with activists. It's not. The crowds rarely seem to top 200 people. Each side wants you to think there are many more who believe in their cause. For now, it's a matter of perception.

Ed Lavandera, CNN, Crawford, Texas.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARRIS: The Crawford protest will get a high-profile visitor today. The Reverend Jesse Jackson will be there, and he'll also be a guest on CNN in our noon Eastern hour, 9:00 a.m. on the West Coast.

And those protests in Crawford are just one of the topics you can talk to CNN about this morning.

NGUYEN: That's right. CNN's Bob Franken has been working the White House beat this week, and he joins us this morning at 10:00 a.m. Eastern to answer your questions about all things related to the West Wing or the western White House in Crawford, Texas. E-mail us those questions. The address on your screen, WEEKENDS@CNN.COM.

Some stories across America now:

South Dakota's Ellsworth Air Force Base has been saved by the Base Closing Commission. The panel also came up with its own plan to rearrange Air National Guard units all across the country. But, siding with the Pentagon, the commission voted to shut down historic Water Reed Army Hospital and relocate 20,000 workers. At this point, the commission has completed its work. Now the recommendations go to President Bush.

The FDA has postponed for at least 60 days a decision on whether the morning-after pill can be sold over the counter. Known as Plan B, the pills can be taken within three days to reduce the risk of pregnancy. Now, two Democratic senators, Patty Murray and Hillary Rodham Clinton, are calling for congressional hearings into the delay. We'll have more on that.

And a Kansas judge rules in favor of families of victims of the BTK killer. The judge granted them an attachment on any profits from a book now in the works, or Internet sales of Dennis Rader's personal property. Raider was sentenced earlier this month to 10 consecutive life terms.

HARRIS: Have Iraqi leaders gotten closer to an agreement on a national constitution? We'll go live to Baghdad just ahead for the latest on the negotiations.

NGUYEN: And it is time for a back-to-school check-up with Dr. Sanjay Gupta. "HOUSE CALL" is coming up at the bottom of the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: Our top story this weekend, Hurricane Katrina, where it's been, and where it's going. Katrina is getting bigger and stronger as it heads across the Gulf of Mexico. It's now a category three storm, and it could grow into a category four before hitting the Mississippi, Louisiana coast on Monday. Tourists and residents will start moving inland this weekend.

Katrina first came ashore Thursday in southern Florida as a category one storm. It's blamed for at least seven deaths in the state. Katrina also flooded streets, damaged homes, and knocked out power to a about a million customers.

Keep it tuned to CNN, your hurricane headquarters.

NGUYEN: Is there a deal on Iraq's constitution, or not? That is the question this morning. The head of Iraq's parliament says the Shiites and Kurds have agreed to Sunni Arab proposals in amending the constitution, but the Sunnis say the changes fall short of their demands. Still, the new text is on the fast track to be submitted to parliament tomorrow.

CNN's Aneesh Raman is following all of these developments in Baghdad.

ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Betty, good morning.

A crucial day, that's what the speaker of Iraq's national assembly is calling tomorrow, when the assembly is set to convene, a conclusion, perhaps, to this process may be at hand, but they're not there yet.

Where things stand now, the Shia-Kurd coalition have amended the draft constitution to, as you say, meet some of the Sunni concerns. In terms of federalism, they have sidelined a good number of details, allowing, though, the Kurds to keep their autonomy in the north.

The other big issue, de-Baathification: What to do with former members of Saddam's regime and with the Baath Party in the new Iraq. Again, meeting Sunni concerns, the Shia and Kurds have sidelined details on that until a new government comes into power at the end of this year.

The Sunnis are meeting today, seeing if this is a deal that they want to take. And tomorrow, it seems, perhaps one of two things will happen. Either all three sides will embrace a draft document, or, instead, the Shia-Kurd coalition will say they've done everything they can, compromise seems impossible, and this is the document that will go to the Iraqi people.

Now, it's important to note, Betty, that the only deadline the Iraqi government says it has is October 15, the date by which this constitution has to go to a referendum by the Iraqi people. The national assembly does not have to vote on this document, although it might, excuse me, essentially as a rubber stamp.

But again, they will try and push this process as far as they can to try and get compromise, because if this constitution gets rejected in that referendum, which the Sunnis have threatened to do, that is the worst delay. This entire process starts again. We wouldn't even get to the point we're at now until mid-next year. So that is what everyone is trying to avoid, Betty.

NGUYEN: All right, Aneesh, thank you. The next 24 hours obviously are going to be critical to that constitution -- Tony?

HARRIS: And now to security watch, where we update you on the week's mayor developments on the war on terror every Saturday morning.

New York's Metro Transit Authority is adding 1,000 surveillance cameras and 3,000 motion sensors to its subway and commuter lines. It's part of a $212 million security upgrade that comes six weeks after the terrorist attacks on the London subway. The new equipment will also be installed on bridges and tunnels operated by the MTA.

A federal judge wants the Bush administration to explain why it's holding two Chinese Muslim detainees at Guantanamo Bay, even though the military says they're not enemy combatants. There are fears the men will face persecution or torture if they're returned to China, so the U.S. is trying to find another country to step up. But so far, there have been no takers.

And finally, it's two-hand touch for NFL fans. The league will begin pat-downs of fans at all league games this season. Officials say it's not because of any specific threat, just an extension of security measures that have been in place since 9/11.

We invite you to stay tuned to CNN day and night for the most reliable news about your security.

NGUYEN: New meaning to touch football there, Tony, OK. Thank you.

Watching and waiting. The central Gulf coast eyes Hurricane Katrina as the category three storm continues to strengthen. Bonnie Schneider will be along with the latest information on its projected track. That's when we come back.

HARRIS: First, a CNN extra. Google, one of the most popular Internet search engines, is about to enter the world of Internet phone calls and instant messaging, but it's going to be up against some very stiff competition. America Online, which is parent to the mix of companies that include CNN, has more than 40 million instant message customers in the U.S. alone. Yahoo claims about 20 million, and Microsoft's I MEAN Service hosts about 14 million.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

NGUYEN: Well, Katrina is her name, and Bonnie Schneider has been tracking this powerful hurricane. Where is she now, Bonnie?

SCHNEIDER: Well, right now, the storm's center is still about 430 miles south to the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving away from Florida, which is good news, because actually Katrina brought up to 20 inches of rain in isolated areas. Miami is still trying to get rid of that water.

When the storm made landfall, it actually came further to the southwest, and that brought the heaviest rainfall totals to Miami-Dade County, even though the landfall was closer to the Broward County line. Right now, it's well over to the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, but Cuba getting pounded with rain. We could see up to 10 inches in western Cuba, and the next up, certainly, for some heavy rain is the Yucatan peninsula. Not a good day to be in Cancun today, because we're expecting some heavy rain there.

But the important thing to note is, right now, taking a look at the latest advisory, the track has not changed. The movement has not changed. Still moving to the west at seven miles per hour. Very key, because we have not seen that northerly turn. So any folks that are watching from the eastern Gulf, especially the Florida panhandle, you want to see that storm move west and away, but not good news for the central Gulf coast, because the more of a westerly track the storm takes before it makes that northerly turn, we're likely to see landfall more towards the Louisiana area.

But right now, that turn has not occurred, so that's why we see such a wide area in our cone of uncertainty. We're likely to see certainly another U.S. landfall, but where and when? That remains to be determined. Right now, we're forecasting it for Monday, but where, certainly we'll have a better idea once we see that turn occur.

In the meantime, just want to talk about the storm's intensity. Right now, maximum winds with Katrina are at 115 miles per hour. That classifies the storm as a weak category three, but a category three is by no means weak. Once the storm turns and it comes over those warm pools of very deep water over Gulf of Mexico, we're likely to see the fuel to the fire just ignite. The storm will intensify, likely to become a category four storm.

Some of our computer projections are saying that the maximum winds will get up as high as 140 miles per hour when the storm makes landfall sometime on Monday.

We'll be watching this very, very closely, because when Katrina originally made landfall as a category one, a lot of folks weren't worried. This is a category one, no problem. But a slow-moving hurricane, doesn't matter what the category is, produces a lot of rain and strong winds. Note the power outages that are still going on in Florida.

Now, certainly, a category four is extremely, extremely powerful, extremely strong. And another thing to note about Katrina, we've seen the storm increase in size as well. It may even grow further once it comes over this warm area.

Another thing to note, I mentioned the warm water. Another factor that will help Katrina intensify and/or develop is low wind shear. We're not going to see too many of the strong upper-level winds that rip apart the thunderstorms. And with that low wind shear, we're going to see this storm really just grow and intensify before it makes landfall.

We're expecting that sometime on Monday. A wide area to keep concern with, especially in the central Gulf coast. We'll be watching. CNN, of course, your hurricane headquarters. And as soon as we get that new advisory, we're expecting another one at 11:00. And Betty and Tony, that 11:00 advisory is really important, because that's when we get a new track as well. So we're going to watch that.

NGUYEN: All right. We will be watching. Thank you, Bonnie.

HARRIS: That's right.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

ANNOUNCER: Keep watching CNN, your hurricane headquarters.

HARRIS: Well, south Florida isn't the only place dealing with flooding this morning. Much of central Europe is beginning the cleanup after massive floods this week. We'll take you there.

NGUYEN: But up next on "HOUSE CALL," we got a checkup for getting your kids' classroom ready. Many already in school, but we'll have that checkup still. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: Well, folks in Mississippi and Louisiana are preparing for a visit from unwelcomed guest. Hurricane Katrina is headed for the Gulf Coast after battering southeastern Florida. At least seven deaths have been blamed on the storm. Katrina has been gaining strength as it makes its way across the Gulf of Mexico.

More than a million people in Florida are still without power this morning, thanks to Hurricane Katrina. The storm dumped up to 18 inches of rain in some areas. Florida Governor Jeb Bush is asking the White House to declare at least two Florida counties federal disaster areas. We will bring you the very latest on Hurricane Katrina at the top of the hour.

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