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State of the Union

Surprising New Poll Shows Kamala Harris Winning Iowa; Interview With Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA); Interview With Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). Aired 9-10a ET

Aired November 03, 2024 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:38]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN HOST (voice-over): Moment of truth. With 48 hours left, the candidates enter the final fight for the presidency.

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES (D) AND U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Your vote is your voice, and your voice is your power.

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES (R) AND CURRENT U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Will you please go and vote?

BASH: As Pennsylvania emerges as the decisive battleground, who will win the Keystone State and the White House? Democratic Senator John Fetterman is next.

And closing costs? Donald Trump is all over the map.

TRUMP: I consider myself to be the father of fertilization, remember? He wants women's health. He wants kids. He wants everything.

BASH: Is it hurting him with late deciding voters? Trump ally Senator Tim Scott will join me.

Plus: gender gap. In the closing hours, Harris leans on women.

HARRIS: Ours is a fight for freedom. Is that strategy starting to pay off? Our panel of experts will break it all down.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: Hello. I'm Dana Bash in Washington, where the state of our union is marking election eve eve.

The presidential election is in just two days. And Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are spending their closing hours warning about each other.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HARRIS: This is someone who is increasingly unstable, obsessed with revenge, consumed with grievance. (CHEERING)

TRUMP: She's not a president. She will get overwhelmed, meltdown, and millions of people will die. You're going to die.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: This morning, a host of new polling shows the candidates are still locked in an extremely tight race amid signs that late-decided -- late-deciding persuadable voters are breaking towards Harris.

A key Iowa poll surprised the political world last night, showing Harris rising in that red state, fueled by support from older white women and independent voters, while new swing state polls show a squeaker, as Trump raises the pressure on Harris in the Democratic must-win state of Pennsylvania, which she acknowledged yesterday on "Saturday Night Live."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAYA RUDOLPH, ACTRESS: I'm going to vote for us.

(LAUGHTER)

HARRIS: Great. Any chance you are registered in Pennsylvania?

(LAUGHTER)

RUDOLPH: Nope, I am not.

(LAUGHTER)

HARRIS: Well, it was a worth a shot.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Here with me now, somebody who was on the ballot in Pennsylvania just two years ago, Democratic Senator John Fetterman.

Thank you so much for being here, sir.

So tomorrow, Kamala Harris will spend the last full day of the campaign only in Pennsylvania. She's going to be in Allentown, in Pittsburgh, and in Philadelphia.

There is 48 hours left in this race. Now, back in 2016, when Trump won Pennsylvania, you said your party wasn't connecting with voters enough that it needs. What are you seeing now? Are you seeing any of the same warning signs in 2024?

SEN. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-PA): No, there's no -- there's nothing new here.

I have said the same thing in 2016. I have said that it's going to be really close. I mean, there's an issue there. And I said that it's going to be very close in 2020. And, of course, it was. And I have been saying this, whether it was Biden or then became Harris. I said, it's going to be very close.

And Trump definitely has a connection with voters here in Pennsylvania. And that's why it's going to be close. But there's a lot of -- a tremendous amount of energy for Harris as well too.

Yesterday, I was in Erie and, of course, with President Clinton. And I was in Butler County as well too. And so, I mean, the energy is really strong. I just met a whole bus of volunteers from Rochester, New York. And they're coming. They're showing up.

And they're just going to knock on -- they're going to knock on doors for Harris as well too. So it's undeniable that there's strong energy on both sides. It's going to be close. And I'm not surprised to hear that Harris is going to spend a lot more time in Pennsylvania before the election, because we all understand Pennsylvania is going to pick the president.

BASH: Senator, Democrats lost nearly 200,000 registered voters since 2020 in Pennsylvania. Republicans added almost that many.

Democrats still have an edge. But do you see this as a larger problem for your party? Are you worried this will hurt Democrats on Tuesday?

[09:05:08]

FETTERMAN: No, I mean, I don't think it's really an issue for Democrats.

And I would like to point out that we have both Democratic senators. I think that's the first time, I think, maybe of the 60s, '50s. Or it's been so long that we haven't had two Democratic senators. And, of course, we have a Democratic governor as well too.

So the Democratic Party is in really strong position here in Pennsylvania. But when Trump is going to show up on the ballot, then that's going to make it very competitive as well too. And now Bob Casey is going to absolutely win over the Connecticut man as well.

And it's been demonstrated in my cycle Pennsylvania voters don't like very rich, weird dudes that don't live in Pennsylvania. Dr. Oz is back in New Jersey. And I think the individual will spend more time in Connecticut after Bob Casey kicks his -- yes.

BASH: I get you.

Senator, is Kamala Harris going to win Pennsylvania?

FETTERMAN: I do. I do. And it is going to be close. But she's definitely put -- she's put in the time here in Pennsylvania. And she showed up all across there. We had an incredible event in Erie. And she spent time across in Pittsburgh.

We went to Johnstown and now going to Allentown. I mean, she understands that you got to show up. And that's what she's done. And that's why it's -- we're in a position to carry Pennsylvania. BASH: Donald Trump has been laying the groundwork to challenge the

election results. I just want to show one example, just one, of what he is posting on TRUTH Social and saying elsewhere: "We caught them cheating big in Pennsylvania. Must announce and prosecute now. This is a criminal violation of the law. Stop voter fraud."

Not only have we seen evidence of his claims. Local officials are saying it's not true. How worried are you about what is going on? I mean, that is my question. How worried are you?

(CROSSTALK)

FETTERMAN: Oh, I'm so -- it made me too cool hearing that -- I mean, it's the same shit that he played in '20. And that didn't go anywhere, our election.

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: But that's why I'm asking you this question. How worried are you about this being a repeat? Because he didn't win, but it caused a lot of problems.

(CROSSTALK)

FETTERMAN: I'm not worried about it.

It's just like a thing. It's the same thing that he tried in 2020. And we had absolutely a secure election. And now there was voter fraud in Pennsylvania, and it was a handful of Republicans, and they had their dead moms voting for Trump.

And I'd like to remind everybody that they were all caught and they were prosecuted. And now -- and, again, Dan Patrick in Texas still owes me a significant amount of money for the reward that he owes from 2020. There was no voter fraud. He tried.

And I would just tell him that desperation is the worst cologne. And he -- I expected he was going to do that. It's not going to be effective, just any more effective than it was in 2020. And anyone that platformed his lies, that was a very expensive kinds of habit as well too.

FOX had to pay over $800 million for those kinds of lies. And all of his supporters, they were all dragged into court, and they all turned their minds, and they're like, oh, no, oh, no, I'm so sorry that I lied.

And remember the Kraken? The Kraken? And her defense was, nobody takes her possibly seriously. It's -- again, it's the same sad story that he had in '20. And I'd like to remind everybody that Biden wrecked his shit by 80,000 votes. And now we're going to be back in the same situation. He's going to try to lie and claim these baseless things.

But now we're going to have a new team leading America, and that's going to be Harris and Walz. But it is going to be close. BASH: I was in Pennsylvania recently talking to Jewish voters. I want

to play just some of what one told me about why she left your Democratic Party.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I left the Democratic Party because, in the current political climate, I do not believe they are seriously supporting the Jewish community. They are not seriously engaging with us.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Now, I should say that she is voting for Harris because she says she can't stand Donald Trump. But that might not always be the case.

What is your message to Jewish voters who are concerned about supporting Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania, 300,000 Jewish voters there?

FETTERMAN: Well, I know we have had a conversation about the situation in -- with Israel and Gaza and that situation.

And I have even -- I disagreed with the president, anyone about this. I have been a very consistent kind of voice throughout all of this, been on that side of -- for Israel. And, now, we have a diversity of opinion with the Democratic Party.

[09:10:10]

And it's not -- it is possible that that may have alienated some members of the Jewish community, but my voice is only my voice. And I have been -- I have been committed. I'm following -- I'm going to follow Israel throughout all of this. So my opinion isn't really likely going to change.

Now, it is absolutely an issue here throughout the election. But I do think that it's going to make sure that it's going to be going to be very close.

BASH: One of the most prevalent Trump campaign ads has been attacking Kamala Harris for her stance on trans rights.

The ad ends with a tagline -- quote -- "Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you."

Is that resonating in Pennsylvania?

FETTERMAN: Again, it's like, if you -- if your political capital comes from picking on trans kids or gay kids or anything like that, that's -- you're just bankrupt throughout all of this.

My version -- my version of being a being a man is, it's like, hey, I like rib eyes, I like Motorhead, and I'm never going to pick on trans kids and gay kids or things. And it's just sad that the other side choose to kind of pick on members of those community. And I have said this throughout my entire career, that if you think

that I have to turn our backs on their community, then you can vote for somebody else. But I'm never -- I'm unwilling to ever do that. And, again, it's just -- it's just a warped version of -- it doesn't make you tough. It doesn't make you a man to pick on trans or gay kids.

It just makes you an asshole.

BASH: But, politically, the Trump campaign believes that that has some residents with suburban parents, with men in the communities of color. You don't see that?

FETTERMAN: And I don't -- I don't speak -- I don't speak about members and their views of a member of a community. I'm not part of that community.

But I -- my views have been very clear throughout all of this. And -- but I will say, though, that if you're willing, and if you think that's -- if that makes tough, or it makes you more edgy to pick on members of that community, like I said, it's just sad. And it's just reflective of their desperation throughout this entire campaign.

BASH: Before I let you go, when do you think we will have a result in Pennsylvania, as somebody who was on the ballot two years ago?

FETTERMAN: Well, I mean, I think -- well, for example, in all the votes, Allegheny County has done a magnificent job even in 2020.

I mean, I'd like to remind everybody that's watching, back in 2020, Pennsylvania just instituted brand-new, brand-new mail voting. And then the Republicans refused to -- they refused to change the vote -- the law. They're not able to look at those kinds of ballots at 7:00 a.m. at Election Day.

They refused to allow us to give it extra days to do that, and because the Republicans try to create the mirage, the mirage out of Philadelphia. But I do believe that Philadelphia is not going to have the kind of a lag that we had in 2020 because there's no pandemic. And now we're aware that -- what's necessary, and vote by mail is...

BASH: Do you want to wager to guess when we're going to know?

FETTERMAN: Oh, I would say, of course -- again, I think perhaps -- it's certainly not going to be like it was in 2020. It's not going to be about two or three or four days coming out of Philadelphia.

And I'd like to say, Al Schmidt, Al Schmidt, who -- he was the hero in Pennsylvania in 2020 out of Philadelphia as a Republican. And now he's in charge of all that process here in Pennsylvania. So we have the right guy for the right time. And then I do believe he's going to deliver an honest, true reflection of the Pennsylvania voters, their will.

BASH: Pennsylvania Democratic Senator John Fetterman, thank you so much for being here this morning. FETTERMAN: Thank you.

BASH: And Donald Trump is barnstorming the swing states. Top Trump ally Senator Tim Scott will join me next to talk about that.

And a polling shock -- the new numbers that are giving Democrats hope in the final days of the campaign. My panel is coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:19:40]

BASH: Welcome back to STATE OF THE UNION.

We are 48 hours to Election Day, but the last 48 hours haven't exactly been on message for the Republican nominee.

Here with me to talk about that and much more is a big Trump supporter, Republican Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina.

Thank you so much for being here, sir.

You have been out on the campaign trail. I know that you have been talking to...

SEN. TIM SCOTT (R-SC): Good morning, Dana.

BASH: ... good morning -- talking to and voting -- excuse me -- campaigning for, not only Donald Trump, but Republican candidates for Senate. You're trying to turn out black and low-propensity voters, among others.

The polls we have seen in the last 24 hours show evidence that late deciders are breaking for Kamala Harris. Do you think that Trump's rhetoric in these closing days is hurting him with those voters?

SCOTT: Well, I will just tell you that the voters I sat down with in Detroit, Michigan, on Tuesday, Ohio in Wednesday, and Philly on Thursday, African-Americans, Hispanics, Jewish voters all seem to have momentum behind Donald Trump.

[09:20:01]

It's going to be a very, very good day for Donald Trump on Tuesday. And, frankly, McCormick will win Pennsylvania without question. Bernie Moreno will win Ohio. And I'm really confident that Mike Rogers will win Michigan as well.

And the reason why is that the voters are listening to our closing arguments on the border. They're listening to it on crime. They're really excited about school choice.

We did a school choice event in Philly, Dana. We had a very strong cross-section of the voters from Philadelphia showing up to talk about the really important issue of making sure that their kids have a better chance for success by giving their parents choice in education. So the issues that we are focusing on in these last 48 hours are the

issues that the voters say are top of their mind.

BASH: I want to get to a little bit more of that in one second.

But I do want to just quickly jump ahead to Election Day and what happens after Election Day, because one of Donald Trump's allies, Steve Bannon, who was released from prison this week, told "The New York Times" that Trump should simply declare victory on election night, regardless of the results.

Here's what he said: "He should stand up and say, hey, I have won this, and we have teams right now that are going to make sure that this thing is not going to be stolen."

That was his advice to Trump four years ago. That's what Trump did four years ago. It led directly to January 6. Will you urge the former president not to prematurely declare victory again and allow the process to play out, so the American people can trust the final legitimate outcome?

SCOTT: Dana, we're looking towards a -- forward to a very good day on Tuesday night, without any question.

I'm excited to see that the battleground states that we just talked about are all leaning towards Trump. So the good news is, we will have a fair election, and Donald Trump will be our next president. I look at the facts that, in Wisconsin, when I was in Wisconsin just recently, the voters are heading in our direction.

And the good news is, two out of three voters want to vote in person in Wisconsin, even though they have mail=-in ballots. You just showed a stat a few minutes ago, where a 400,000-vote swing towards Republicans in Pennsylvania. You take the number of Democrats not voting and the number of Republicans who have registered.

And that's before you add on top of that the 300,000 Jewish voters who find themselves being polarized away from the Democrat Party. This is going to be a very good election. And we, the people, will make that decision.

BASH: I appreciate your optimism. That's your job on the eve of the election.

But what I'm asking about is, what if he doesn't win? And the fact of the matter is that Trump is already spreading false claims about cheating in Pennsylvania. He has repeatedly predicted a massive victory, even though polls show that the race is very close.

He's setting the stage for his supporters not to believe the results if he loses. Do you want him to stop doing that?

SCOTT: I would never tell any candidate on the ballot to talk about what happens if they lose.

Obviously, you're going to lean into the victory, especially when the latest polls in the background states says that you're running forward.

BASH: I appreciate that, Senator. Forgive me. But spreading false rumors...

SCOTT: You're running ahead of your candidate.

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: Totally. But saying false things about fraud is not...

SCOTT: Dana, you and I just disagree on this one, totally disagree on this one.

BASH: You think it's OK to spread false rumors about fraud and undermine the integrity of the election, regardless of what happens?

SCOTT: Dana, the liberal media has done a better job of spreading misinformation than any candidate I have seen so far.

BASH: Oh, come on, Senator.

SCOTT: That's true.

Listen, here's the fact. We're not seeing the coverage of two assassination attempts on CNN against Donald Trump.

BASH: We did wall-to-wall coverage.

SCOTT: We're not seeing the comments about Kamala Harris talking about fascists, calling Donald Trump a fascist.

BASH: John Kelly called him a fascist, his former chief of staff.

SCOTT: We should focus on giving the American people the opportunity, giving -- and she repeated it, giving people the opportunity to make their own decision.That's what we Americans...

BASH: Well, wouldn't you? If Kamala Harris' former chief of staff called her a fascist, I would guess that you would repeat it too.

And Donald Trump has called him one as well.

SCOTT: The bottom line is this, Dana. The bottom line is this.

We should focus on the issues that the American people are talking about. They're talking about the greatest invasion across our southern border. Black communities across this country, particularly in inner cities, are talking about the devastation of the presence of Venezuela gangs leading to more crime.

We're talking about a rise in the unemployment rate of African- Americans. Of course, black men are now more open to the Republican Party, and specifically Donald Trump, because the numbers are in. Kamala Harris and Joe Biden, they have done a terrible job addressing the issues of black men.

BASH: Senator...

SCOTT: Therefore, looking at the Donald Trump years, we saw low unemployment and high enthusiasm.

BASH: I want to allow you to make your point, which I just did.

[09:25:00]

SCOTT: Yes, ma'am.

BASH: But I can't let go of the fact that you are saying it is the media spreading claims.

It is not true. It is Donald Trump who is saying things that are proven...

SCOTT: It is true.

BASH: Donald Trump is saying things just about Pennsylvania, just one example, that local officials are saying is not true.

We saw what happened on January 6 as a result of that and many other things. You were there at the Capitol. Are you saying right now...

SCOTT: I was.

BASH: You want to leave this conversation and say you're OK with his rhetoric?

SCOTT: Well, Dana, what I'm going to tell you is the truth.

The Supreme Court and local courts in Pennsylvania have ruled in favor of the Trump campaign this election cycle.

BASH: But this has nothing to do -- that has nothing to do with what he's saying.

SCOTT: In 2020, the Supreme Court then made changes prospectively.

You're asking the question about voter integrity, election integrity.

BASH: Right.

SCOTT: I'm giving you the answer. We have seen a strong shift in the right direction, and that's reasons for us to be optimistic that this election will be fair.

I'm, of course, going to say my candidate's going to win because the polls reinforce that fact, and the evidence I'm seeing on the ground only highlights or magnifies the fact that Donald Trump is doing very well in the battleground states. We are not just optimistic. We are going to be motivated, which will allow us to mobilize our voters.

BASH: So...

SCOTT: This election will be decided by the turnout. BASH: So if you believe -- you just said that you believe that the

election will be free and fair.

SCOTT: Yes.

BASH: So does that mean that you are confident that, if Donald Trump loses -- I know you think he's going to win, but let's just play this out -- if he loses, that he will concede?

SCOTT: I'm confident that he's going to win, without any question.

And, yes, I do believe that we will have a fair election, we will honor the results and we will celebrate the 47th president being Donald Trump.

BASH: OK, let me turn to something that I want to ask you about if he does, in fact, win, which is, he's promising a major role for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in his administration, saying he will let him -- quote -- "go wild" on medicine and vaccines.

As you know, Kennedy is a big spreader of conspiracy theories about vaccine safety and efficacy. He also declared yesterday that Trump will push to remove fluoride from public water. Should he have, as Donald Trump has said, a major role in determining America's public health policy?

SCOTT: Well, I think what we should do first is win, Dana, without any question.

We're on the cusp of victory, so let's not talk about anything, about who's going to serve in the administration until after we actually are declared the winner. There's no doubt that President Trump has surrounded himself with some really fine people. I think of John Ratcliffe, who served as a director of national intelligence, and the really good work that he did.

I think what you will see this time around are the kind of people who want to serve in his administration that reflected the success that we had in 2017 through 2020. So I'm very optimistic that, after we win, we will have a serious conversation about who serves in the Cabinet, who serves in the administration, and we will have strong patriots who love America, who loves Americans, and who want to serve in this Cabinet.

BASH: You didn't name RFK Jr.

SCOTT: Well, I didn't, you're right, because I'm not going to name anybody that I don't have a personal relationship with, that I don't know how they're going to serve in the Cabinet.

BASH: Yes.

SCOTT: But I do have strong confidence that this administration will choose highly competent, qualified individuals to do the work that they will be assigned to. BASH: I just want to ask one quick follow-up, and definitely did not

expect to be asking you about fluoride in water two days before the election.

But, in 2018, you did introduce legislation...

SCOTT: No voters have, by the way, either.

BASH: Yes.

Well, in 2018, you introduced legislation to support fluoride efforts in underserved communities. Since RFK Jr. made this...

SCOTT: Yes.

BASH: He did this on social media yesterday, making this announcement that Donald Trump is going to give him support if he's in the White House and that he will move to eliminate fluoride from water.

Are you OK with that as one of the first things that happens in a second Trump term?

(LAUGHTER)

SCOTT: Dana, I'm laughing because I can't believe that we're having a conversation about fluoride, when all the voters I've talked to over five battleground states...

BASH: I mean, talk to -- take it up with RFK Jr.

(LAUGHTER)

SCOTT: Seriously, I can't take it up with RFK Jr. I'm going to let you do that part, because you're good at this part.

I'm going to stay in my lane, which is talking about the issues that voters -- seriously, Dana, we are 48 hours away from the most consequential election in American history, and voters in Michigan, in Ohio, in Wisconsin, in Pennsylvania, in Georgia, in North Carolina are all talking about crime and unemployment.

They're talking about the border. They're talking about 70,000 Americans losing their lives to fentanyl. They're not talking about fluoride. And I just am going to stay focused on trying to make my closing argument why we should be optimistic about America's future, because we have the key ingredients to that future.

[09:30:06]

BASH: Yes.

SCOTT: Educate our poorest kids, close our southern border, and let's fix our economy.

Kamala Harris broke it. Trump can fix it. BASH: Senator, I bet you there's somebody on the Trump campaign who

could get you RFK Jr.'s cell phone. So I look forward to hearing about how that conversation goes.

(LAUGHTER)

BASH: Thank you for being here. I appreciate it, sir.

SCOTT: Thank you, ma'am. Yes, ma'am. Have a good Sunday.

BASH: Up next: Kamala Harris took a break from the battlegrounds last night to court some voters live from New York.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

(LAUGHTER)

HARRIS: I don't really laugh like that, do I?

RUDOLPH: A little bit.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:35:10]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RUDOLPH: Now, Kamala, take my palmala.

(LAUGHTER)

RUDOLPH: The American people want to stop the chaos...

HARRIS: ... and end the dramala.

RUDOLPH: Because what do we always say?

HARRIS AND RUDOLPH: Keep Kamala and carry onala.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Welcome back to STATE OF THE UNION.

Kamala Harris making a surprise appearance on "Saturday Night Live."

My terrific panel is here now.

David Axelrod, if you were inside the Biden headquarters -- the Biden headquarters -- the Kamala headquarters in Wilmington, I was going to say...

DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: If I was inside the Biden headquarters, I would be a little less optimistic.

(LAUGHTER)

BASH: What you be most worried about right now?

AXELROD: Well, look, the watchword of the day is humility here.

When you have polls that are this close -- and I'm sitting next to one of the great pollsters -- if you -- and I think she would tell you, when you have polls this close, you're not sure of anything. And it really matters who shows up, because these polls are not precise.

So what I'm worried about is, how are -- you're counting on some women who are independent, Republican women to come out and vote for Harris. Is that going to materialize? Is the gender gap going to be what you need it to be? Are minority voters going to come out in the numbers, of African-American voters, in particular, and are you going to get the margins that you want there?

So there are a lot of open questions, and they're obviously working it hard right now. There are feet on the street. And they're doing the kind of work that you do in a race like this. But this race is filled with uncertainty today.

BASH: What is Donald Trump worried about?

DAVID URBAN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes, listen, like, the greatest of all American philosophers once said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future, right?

BAKARI SELLERS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Was it 50 Cent?

URBAN: Yogi Berra.

BASH: Yogi Berra.

(LAUGHTER)

URBAN: I mean, that's the case here right?

To David's point, everything that David said is a concern for me, right? You just asked Senator Fetterman about the 300,000 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania. And if you have seen that RJC ad that's been running nonstop in Pennsylvania about every other commercial, right, do those margins come out in the commonwealth, right?

And I was on the ground at '16, I was on the ground at '20 in Pennsylvania, I have been on the ground this year. It feels a lot more like '16 than '20. In '16, we had a very high-profile, famous woman at the top of the ticket with a lot of celebrity endorsements. In '20, we had Pennsylvania's third senator, one of the favorite sons, Scranton Joe, campaigned a lot with Ed Rendell, lived in the Philly area basically.

So what does it look like? Does it look more like '16 or does it look like '20? And I think that it looks a little bit more like '16. And we will find out in the dispositive places. I think Bucks County, '16, Trump narrowly lost. Biden expanded his lead there a little bit. There's more registration now, Republican registration there. And in Philadelphia County, Trump increased a little bit in '20. And so what do those Republican Jewish women do in the Philly suburbs? Do Did they prioritize abortion or is that RJC? Do they prioritize anti-Zionism and antisemitism?

BASH: Let's widen the discussion. Pennsylvania obviously is probably the most important, but look at "The New York Times" polls this morning, which did a survey of all of the battlegrounds. And the headline is once again no clear leader.

Kristen, you are our pollster here.

And then I want to, as we look at that, no clear leader -- then I want to look at Iowa, because it's not generally a hot topic two days before a general election to talk about the last "Des Moines Register" poll. That's usually what we do before the Iowa caucuses.

But if you look at that, Iowa is a red state. And she has Kamala Harris, Ann Selzer, the famous Ann Selzer, has Kamala Harris up by a few points.

Now, Republicans I have talked to in Iowa think that is probably overstating her support, but they do see a trend there with late- breakers for Kamala Harris on the female side, on the older side that could be very real, not just there but other places. What do you see?

KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: So I have also in my own data seen senior women trending a little more Democratic.

I don't think it is to the extent that was found in the Selzer poll. But she's a great pollster. Even good pollsters sometimes have outliers. And that is why I think what David Axelrod said was so important about uncertainty.

This election could be a reboot. That's sort of what "The New York Times"/Siena polls are showing, that Harris has rebooted the Obama coalition. She's getting younger voters. She's getting voters of color to turn out for her in big numbers. But this also could be a realignment.

And that's what the Trump team is hoping for, that they're actually doing better with younger voters, better with voters of color than expected. And so even if they're losing seniors by a little bit, especially senior women, they're making up that ground in other places.

[09:40:06]

We don't yet know if this is a reboot or a realignment. And just because the polls are generally showing this race close, I want to be clear. The uncertainty is not just, we don't know who's going to win. It's also possible that one of these candidates could run away with this.

The uncertainty is not just, well, we're sure it'll be close. We aren't sure of anything right now. And I know that's an unsatisfying thing to hear the day before the -- week before the election.

BASH: No, it is so important...

URBAN: Yogi Berra.

BASH: It's so important to underscore that...

SOLTIS ANDERSON: Yes.

BASH: ... that it is so tight that really anything could happen. And we need to say that what we know is that we don't know much.

But what are you hearing inside the Harris campaign, because you're...

SELLERS: I mean, look, I actually sit around here with a -- I brought my humility. I don't know if I brought it on set, but...

AXELROD: You must have rented it.

(CROSSTALK)

(LAUGHTER)

SELLERS: But I feel really confident about where the Harris campaign is right now.

I think, if you look at the numbers in Georgia and North Carolina, particularly early voting over the last few days, you have seen those voters that she needs to come home come home, and quickly. I mean, if you look at the Atlanta -- those counties around Atlanta, DeKalb, Fulton, Gwinnett, Clayco, all of those counties, they're coming home.

Where she needs to improve is Chatham County, which is Savannah, and Richmond County, which is Augusta. But Georgia, there's a road map for victory there. North Carolina, the same thing. Black and brown voters, young voters -- we have seen young voters explode. Gen Z actually is going to be the determining demographic in this race.

We have seen them overindex, 100-plus percent turnout in places like North Carolina, Georgia. Those voters are actually going to have a stamp on what happens in this election. And so you look at North Carolina, you look at Georgia, but then you go to Pennsylvania.

And we talked about the 300,000 Jewish voters, but we also have to see something that happened. And I'm interested to see what the polls are saying, 500,000 Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania that Donald Trump just kind of castigated and set aside.

And the campaign had a very difficult time figuring out how to find their footing. But we're not just seeing Puerto Rican voters. We're actually seeing Hispanic voters come back to the Democratic side in droves. And so I feel really confident about where she is. Is this going to be a close race? I'm not sure.

But this is -- this -- I'd rather be Kamala Harris than Donald Trump today. BASH: You think that hurt him in Pennsylvania?

URBAN: Look, it does. I think an offhanded comment by a comedian, it hurt for a short period of time.

Did -- I think it was kind of offset by the garbage comment by Joe Biden, smack them in the dupa, to use my Polish language there. But I think it's a net-net at the end of the day. Again...

AXELROD: If he loses, that rally at Madison Square Garden is going to loom large.

BASH: OK.

URBAN: Well, there are lots of -- I mean, I would point to...

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: We have more to talk about that has to do with all of these topics.

So don't go anywhere. We're going to take a quick break. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:47:26]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I'm through the roof with men. I'm great with men, but I'm sort of like soft with the women stuff. Women have to be protected when they're at home in suburbia.

(CHEERING)

TRUMP: I consider myself to be the father of fertilization, remember?

HARRIS: Ours is a fight for freedom, freedom of a woman to make decisions about her own body.

(CHEERING)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Welcome back. Back with the panel.

You have been obviously doing focus groups and you have a lot of data on this. Do you think women will be the determining factor?

SOLTIS ANDERSON: Well, certainly. There are a majority of voters in the country.

And, right now, you have seen in the midterms from just two years ago women were decisive, turning out in bigger-than-expected numbers, motivated in part by the overturning of Roe v. Wade. It has been a very big piece of Kamala Harris' message. And, frankly, it's an issue that unites Democrats and divides Republicans.

Republicans are not unified on this issue. And any time you as a campaign can hammer something home that unites your side with the center and divides the other side, that's a strong issue. It's why I think she's been so focused on it.

URBAN: Listen, if they're so confident about women, why is -- as you posted yesterday, why are there notes in every bathroom in America yesterday at sporting events...

AXELROD: Well...

URBAN: ... saying, hey, tell your husband you voted for Kamala, you don't have to tell him you voted for Trump, you can lie to your husband?

If they feel so strongly about their stand with women...

(CROSSTALK)

AXELROD: But, Dave, because you do what you can to maximize your vote.

And I think that's -- in the last 24 hours of this campaign, or 36 or whatever it is -- I got to check my...

SELLERS: Forty-eight.

AXELROD: Thank you.

You want to flush out every, no pun intended...

(LAUGHTER)

AXELROD: ... every -- every vote you can.

But I just want to make one point. When you have been in this business for a long time, one of the things you do is, you look at these numbers, but you also watch the way a race is closing. She's closing well. She's on a message. She's been very disciplined.

Trump has not. But -- and I think that that is meaningful.

SELLERS: The other thing that I want to point out, something that's meaningful, I was in Tempe, Arizona, with Ruben Gallego this week.

And one of the things that we saw was a robust ground game for Democrats. And that's absent on the Republican side, save for one state.

AXELROD: Yes.

SELLERS: Nevada, the governor of Nevada, is actually running the ground game there. It's a -- it's a hell of an operation. Kudos to the governor of Nevada. But everywhere else in the swing states, the battleground states, the

Harris campaign knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors yesterday, right? And so when you look at the ground game in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, compared to what they have, it's -- when you abdicate your duty of getting voters out to Charlie Kirk and Elon Musk, you get beat...

(CROSSTALK)

[09:50:02]

URBAN: But, listen, let me just say this.

In 2016 -- I'm just going back. Just, again, past is prologue. 2016, there was zero ground game. There was nobody there. Again, I went to the rally the night before the election: The Democrats are going to win. It was going to be crushed. And there was nobody on the ground.

And guess what happened? All those grassroots...

(CROSSTALK)

URBAN: They showed up on their own.

(CROSSTALK)

AXELROD: This is one of the reasons the polls have been off, because they have missed these folks who did not participate in polls.

We talked about this in the green room.

URBAN: And they're missing it again.

AXELROD: Pollsters have -- but pollsters have done a lot to try and correct for that. The question is, have they overcorrected for it? Have they captured it or have they under...

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: Forgive me.

Final thought, is Trump's closing message, some of the things that he is saying, is that hurting him with these late-breaking voters?

SOLTIS ANDERSON: His message on air is one that says, if you want the economy to be back on track and you want the world to not be on fire, vote for me. That's a good message.

It's, unfortunately for him, different than sometimes what he's saying on the stump. And I think that disconnect, if he loses, will be part of why.

BASH: Great conversation. Thank you all.

Drink your water. Get your sleep when you can.

We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:55:46]

BASH: It's almost finally here. We are 48 hours from Election Day.

And there is no better place to follow Tuesday's results than right here on CNN. Join us for our special election coverage, which starts at 4:00 p.m. Eastern right here on CNN.

Thank you so much for spending your Sunday morning with us.

Fareed Zakaria picks it up next.