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State of the Union
Pete Hegseth Announces Public Execution; Interview With Microsoft Founder Bill Gates; Interview With U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired October 11, 2026 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST (voice-over): Crossroads.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You got ICE shooting at people.
TAPPER: Another ICE shooting sparks new protests...
PROTESTERS: ICE out of New York!
TAPPER: ... as the Trump administration digs in.
MARKWAYNE MULLIN, U.S. HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY: We're not putting a policeman enforcement. I'm sorry, we're not.
TAPPER: Will anything change? I'll ask Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin.
Plus: terms and conditions. Amid growing fears over the impact of AI...
SAM ALTMAN, CEO, OPENAI: The world should accept some bad things happening.
TAPPER: ... are tech leaders being transparent about what's coming? And are we ready for it?
BILL GATES, FOUNDER, MICROSOFT: This changes the world more than all previous technologies.
TAPPER: Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates joins me ahead.
And sprint to the finish. With three weeks to go, will Democrats succeed in redrawing the map, or can Republicans stave off an election night drubbing?
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Please pretend I'm on the freaking ballot, will you? TAPPER: My political panel breaks it all down.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TAPPER: Hello. I'm Jake Tapper in Washington, where the state of our union is already voting.
Just over three weeks from Election Day, more than three million Americans have already cast their ballots, as President Trump faces pressure on multiple fronts that could determine his party's fate in November.
On affordability, the key issue for many voters, Trump hopes to reverse skyrocketing fuel costs by purchasing six million barrels of diesel, barely enough to cover a day-and-a-half of U.S. demand, purchasing it from Vladimir Putin, despite signing a bill three weeks ago by the late Senator Lindsey Graham sanctioning countries that buy Russian oil.
Faced with criticism from some Republicans and from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President Trump sided with Putin and attacked Zelenskyy.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: He wants to make problems for our farmers, our ranchers with diesel fuel. He better damn well stop. I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TAPPER: In the Mideast, with his unpopular Iran war already weighing down Republicans, President Trump now says the U.S. is considering strikes against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, this after an attack on Saudi Arabia's main airport, the third this week, killed at least 12 people, including an American.
On immigration, a shooting by federal officers in the Bronx reignited tensions over Trump's deportation crackdown and the tactics used, this after agents carrying out an enforcement operation fired multiple shots into a car, wounding the driver while his 5-year-old child was in the back seat.
And joining me now is the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Markwayne Mullin.
Secretary Mullin, thank you so much for being here. We appreciate it.
Let's start by showing our viewers this NYPD video of the shooting. You can see Oscar Belgal in a parking spot. A plainclothes officer approaches the driver's side window with his gun drawn. Another plainclothes officer approaches by the driver's side headlight.
Belgal then appears to try to reverse and try to drive away. One of the officers is banging on his window with a gun. So, I understand that Oscar Belgal in the country illegally, and he has a criminal record, including grand larceny.
I guess the question I have is, do you see how, for anyone, a bunch of men not clearly identified as with the government, as with ICE, banging on windows with a gun might cause anyone to flee? And I wonder, would it not be safer for the officers if they were clearly identified as with ICE?
MULLIN: Well, Jake, what you're not understanding is the full gravity of the situation, that Oscar had already fled once before just a month ago.
He knew that officers were looking for him. He understood that he was a wanted man. I mean, think about the guy's record. I will read it here to you. He's got four charges of felony robbery, two charges of felony assault, felony larceny, misdemeanor assault, weapons possession, misdemeanor larceny, possession of stolen property, two felony charges for dangerous drugs, and a strong gang affiliation, which he has also wanted for possibly direct or indirect information on a CBP officer that was killed by his gang last year.
This guy, we knew was dangerous. We knew he was probably armed. He had fled from us before. We had taken every precaution possible to take. And for -- when -- us to approach his vehicle, we approach it and was getting lawful commands.
What you're not hearing is the actual audio too. He knew exactly who we were. He decided to flee once again, like he had done before. And so, when someone tries to flee from us, they're taking their -- they're making their decisions at that time. The truth is this guy was an awful human being. He was a thug. He was a gangbanger.
[09:05:04]
And he had only been in the country for three years, and he had this long of the rap sheet and had been released multiple times by New York state. At the same time, he was on probation. So you couldn't have got a worse of a worst thug than Oscar is.
And why is the media so outraged by this? It doesn't make any sense, because, Jake, you remember, the week before, an NYPD officer in the Bronx, same area that this was at, was stabbed by two thugs too with extensive rap sheets that was released by New York back on the streets. They were also from the Dominican Republic.
And not one person covered that. I don't think the media covered it. and the -- I know the mayor didn't go out and give some press conference about it. If anybody's going to be outraged, they should be outraged that these criminals are still running the streets, when they should have been detained, because we put detainers on them and asked the state of New York to give them to us and let us ship them back out.
TAPPER: Yes.
MULLIN: So, all three of these thugs, Oscar and the two individuals that stabbed the NYPD officer, all three of those individuals should have been deported years ago.
But, of course, the state of New York is a sanctuary state, and this is the kind of criminals that are running wild.
TAPPER: Yes, so I'm just asking about the tactics. I'm not defending the character of any of these gentlemen, because, obviously, one of the reasons this has gotten so much attention is that Oscar Belgal's 5-year-old son was in the backseat of the car.
Now, you have said that the agents were not aware that there was this child in the backseat of the car. But I wonder also about, in terms of tactics, shouldn't agents be checking for things like that before they fire into the vehicle?
Thankfully, the kids fine, but if this was a targeted operation, they were surveilling Mr. Belgal, are you 100 percent sure that the tactics being used don't need to change in any way here?
MULLIN: Well, let's be clear about this too. Do you know who knew the 5-year-old was in the car?
TAPPER: Sure, Oscar Belgal, yes.
MULLIN: Oscar did.
If I'm a father -- if I'm a father, which I am a father of six, and I'm going to do everything I can to protect my child, I promise you I would have been obeying the lawful commands that were given. The last thing I would have done is put my son or one of my kids in danger.
He chose to accelerate at a rated speed, hit the vehicle in front, flared off, and accelerate towards officers into another vehicle. He was a selfish individual. Why would you ever put your child into situations like that?
TAPPER: Yes. Again, I'm not defending him.
MULLIN: Now, I'm not talking about undercover police officers.
But -- I know, but let's talk about undercover police officers. Every single department, I don't care if it's state, if it's local, if it's county, or if it's federal, they all have undercover divisions. And undercover divisions make arrests every single day in plainclothes.
When they approach the vehicle, they had their badges out. You can see that their badge was out, and they were giving lawful commands. So the tactics that are used are the same tactics that are used by law enforcement from coast to coast, from local, city, state to federal.
TAPPER: So let me just ask you another thing. We have seen a bunch of these incidents where agents go after someone who is behind the wheel of a car. And sometimes it ends with the target winding up dead, including two incidents like this since you have become secretary, a Venezuelan man in Texas, a Dominican man in Maine in July.
Tactically, should DHS institute practices where officers are suggested -- it's suggested that they wait for someone to get out of the car before going after them so that the car cannot be weaponized?
MULLIN: Well, the problem that you continue to have is individuals like this are going to flee.
Every time we approach someone, it's fight or flight, 100 percent of the time, because when ICE, ERO, HSI, CBP, when we're approaching a vehicle, this individual knows they're going to jail.
Now, you want to talk about the two individuals that have been shot since I have been secretary, let's think about the 258 illegals that are in New York City right now that are wanted for murder. Let's talk about the 258 that have -- that are currently in state prison that killed individuals that were illegals that we got detainers on.
All 258 of those individuals took an American life, and all 258 deaths were 100 percent preventable, because those illegals shouldn't be here. Now, if people are really concerned about the tactics that are being used, how about the state cooperates with us?
These individuals that I have talked about have detainers on them. Oscar had a detainer on him. The two individuals that stabbed the New York P.D. officer, one of them had a detainer on them. That means they were locked up before. We asked the state, we asked the city to give them to us, and they released them back on the streets.
If anybody should be outraged, it should be the public to the sanctuary states and sanctuary politicians that continue to release these murderers and thugs back on the streets and put the American people at danger.
TAPPER: So you said ICE agents were wearing body cameras during the encounter.
MULLIN: Yes.
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TAPPER: The NYPD have already released its bodycam footage.
MULLIN: Yes.
TAPPER: Will the -- is the ICE agents' bodycam footage going to be released to the public as well? And, if so, when?
MULLIN: I'm sure it will be. Right now, FBI and HSI are doing the investigation. So, as it develops and we get all the information out correctly, we'll release information at due time.
One thing that we have learned for sure is that we never want to get ahead of the investigation. That's even with me and the speech or the conversations that I have about it. I want to be very clear that the investigation will go through, and when we find it and we are -- complete the investigation, we'll be very, very transparent with the public.
TAPPER: We're 23 days out from the Election Day. More than three million Americans have already have already voted early.
As the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, have you seen any efforts by any domestic or international bad actors to interfere with the election?
MULLIN: Well, we're constantly seeing people want to interfere. We constantly see ballots that are that are mailed to -- not saying they're voting, but that are mailed to illegals.
Right now, I will try to get the numbers for you correctly so I know right now. We have 1,600 open cases of fraudulent activity. We have already made 15 arrests, and we have 300,000 possible cases that we're looking into.
So we understand that there are adversaries are always wanting to -- wanting to interfere with our elections. We have the -- we have a reputation of trying to have very fair and safe elections. The problem is, is we also know there's a lot of people out there that want to cheat. There's no question about that.
We constantly see mail-out ballots that are being mailed to those that are deceased. You see what's happened in New Jersey. The governor has been very open about the thousands of ballots that have went out to individuals that shouldn't be voting and those that have been deceased. And that's just one state.
So we are -- we're doing our part to make sure that the only people that choose our American leaders are American citizens that are legally able to vote, because one illegal vote cancels one legal vote. That should never take place.
TAPPER: All right, Secretary Mullin, thank you so much for joining us today. Appreciate it, sir.
MULLIN: Thank you. Appreciate it.
TAPPER: My next guest says we're not ready for just how much AI is going to change the world, and he knows a thing or two about changing the world. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates joins us.
Plus, as the midterms enter the homestretch, the gloves are coming off.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIKE ROGERS (R), MICHIGAN SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: I will tell you what my mother did. She was a small...
ABDUL EL-SAYED (D), Michigan Senatorial Candidate: You going after my mom?
ROGERS: I'm not going after your mom.
EL-SAYED: That's exactly what you're doing.
ROGERS: What your mom... (END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:17:07]
TAPPER: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says the world should accept some bad things happening in order to get the benefits of AI.
The latest bad thing on Friday, rival AI company Anthropic revealed that its AI agents went rogue and accessed government Web sites, applying for State Department visas, even submitting a false tip about a homicide to Philadelphia police.
My next guest is a tech icon who says we're not doing enough to prevent some of these bad things from happening.
And joining me now is Microsoft co-founder and chair of the Gates Foundation, Bill Gates.
Thanks so much for joining us.
We have already seen these AI models go rogue and hack platforms and government Web sites. These are just the incidents we know of. I can't imagine there aren't many, many more we don't know about. You know many of these tech leaders personally. Do you think they're being fully transparent and fully sincere with the public when it comes to their own concerns and fears with this technology and the true risks?
GATES: Well, I don't think there's any industry that's ever been as open about their concerns.
The imbalance we have is, you have a lot of concern in the industry, but then academics, policymakers, politicians, they have far less awareness of how complex and how powerful these tools are.
And so, as that awareness develops, the -- a lot of policy sophistication will come in. For example, should kids have an emotional relationship with the AI? How can the AI complement the teachers in school and be more of a thing to drive curiosity than just a tool basically for cheating on an essay or a paper?
And if you look at various countries, China's banned children having relationships with AI. There's some that are much further ahead than some of the negatives that I think the industry is trying to get attention to.
TAPPER: You have called AI aliens created in a lab that could evolve almost as a species of its own and become to us what -- quote -- "we are to dogs or cats" -- unquote.
And you have said this isn't just a technological leap. It's a -- quote -- "evolutionary event." That sounds scary. That sounds ominous.
GATES: Yes, the arrival of AI is both fantastic for things like health care and new tools, really unbelievable, but it's also something that has such profound power and really changes life in a pretty profound way, that I always worry when people look back at previous technological advances.
[09:20:14]
Like, I was involved in the personal computer and the Internet. Those were a big deal, but nothing compared to this. This changes the world more than all previous technologies. And we got to get everyone on the same page about what a big deal this is.
TAPPER: Now, you have warned that AI could make it much easier for bad actors to develop deadly bioweapons. You said the risk of having a bioterrorist attack is now 50 times the risk of a natural pandemic.
How soon do you think that nightmare scenario could happen? Are we talking imminently? And are our leaders doing enough to make sure it does not happen.
GATES: Well, no, we're not doing enough.
The front that we will probably see most dramatically in the next year is cyberattacks, because, there, there's a known business model where you threaten to do something and then ask somebody to pay you for that, or you create a disruption that changes something in the stock market or some betting thing that you go and do.
And so the real danger right now is not that AI is getting out of control. We need to work on that, but that's years away in terms of the big impact that might have. It's really bad people using AI, particularly in AI, where you can take out all the safeguards.
We put in safeguards to try and avoid you doing cyberattacks. We put safeguards in to avoid you doing bioterrorism, but, right now, you're allowed to take all those safeguards out. So, when you have bad people, no safeguards, and then the latest models, that's where, over the next year, primarily in the cyber area, we are going to have a lot of negative surprises.
TAPPER: Sam Altman called some of the scenarios that people are envisioning about AI -- quote -- "so dystopian that they sound like the plot of bad science fiction movies" -- unquote.
He warned against people falling into -- quote -- "the trap of doomerism" -- unquote. Now, you have called AI the most dangerous thing ever that makes nuclear weapons look like nothing. Sam Altman, it sounds like, would suggest that you are falling into the trap of doomerism. How would you respond?
GATES: Well, all responsible AI leaders, including Sam Altman, including Dario Amodei, they are telling the world, this is very concerning.
The way that gets articulated in terms of potential negative scenarios, yes, it can get overblown. When people act like all of humanity is at risk in some imminent way, that is going too far. But, say, compared to cars or planes or drugs, all things that I think we're pleased that we have significant regulatory capability to try and keep people safe, this is more dangerous than any of those.
And so there are some grim possibilities if we don't maintain control. And I do think the industry is doing its job to raise the alarm bell, but this idea that, if we're judicious, we can minimize these risks, maybe that's not coming across, particularly because the government sometimes goes to the extreme of, let's not have any safeguards or let's completely stop this.
Finding that middle ground, like we did with planes and cars and medicines, that, we don't have a lot of sophistication right now. But I do believe that middle ground exists.
TAPPER: So you talk about planes and cars and medicine. There's regulatory models and organizations for all of that. Planes, there's the FAA. Medicine, there's the Food and Drug Administration.
GATES: Exactly. Exactly.
TAPPER: We don't have anything like that right now. And what we're hearing from our leaders in Washington are, these organizations should self-police, and the FBI and Justice Department making sure that crimes don't happen, that's sufficient.
I think there are a lot of people, I'm sure yourself, who think it's not sufficient. Are you concerned at all about this self-governing idea?
GATES: I think, over the next year, we will move beyond self- governance.
[09:25:04]
The idea that for the most dangerous technology humans ever invented, that that's the final word, that just the companies themselves are the only check that society has, particularly when this idea of what safeguards do you need, it's clear we're not doing enough we see through these incidents.
So I do think, over the next year, the idea that government has to get more sophisticated, and we will have safety groups, like we do for those other domains, I think that will become quite obvious to people. I will certainly be a strong voice for that.
TAPPER: One of the other concerns, obviously, is what this AI means in terms of job losses. And you have said that the breadth of job losses from AI across virtually all sectors is going to be unprecedented.
You're calling for certain occupations and in education and health care, for instance, to be reserved for humans. Do you think that there's any appetite among our political leaders, among our business leaders to do that if there is money to be saved or made?
GATES: Yes, I think this idea that you have to reserve things for humans, because I'm looking at how fast these models are improving and what the incentive is to use the AI in place of human labor, you know, I'm looking out and saying, in the years ahead, we really do need to make a decision as a society, how do we tax AI usage or robot usage?
And where do we want to make sure the human jobs are preserved? Until people get their mind around how powerful this is, and, therefore, what it's going to be doing to these jobs, the idea that you need to reserve things for humans may sound bizarre, but, in fact, we will get there, and then we will decide, politically, are there things that we think only humans should be allowed to do?
TAPPER: Before you go, sir, just quickly, since you have been making your concerns known, especially, have you heard from President Trump or any of the leaders in Washington?
GATES: Well, I have certainly heard from a number of politicians.
And I'm hopeful, in time, I will get my chance to talk with President Trump and his key people. I -- the more time that's spent on this, the better, because we are not yet where we need to be.
TAPPER: All right, Bill Gates, thank you so much for your time and your expertise. We really appreciate it.
GATES: Thank you.
TAPPER: Could the path to a Democratic Senate majority run through Kansas? My panel's here to try to make sense of this map. That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:33:12]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JON OSSOFF (D), GEORGIA SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: It's not just that you have hired half the Third Reich to staff your congressional office.
REP. MIKE COLLINS (R-GA), SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: My opponent is a radical.
SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R-ME): You owe me an apology.
TROY JACKSON (D), MAINE SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: No, you owe me an apology.
EL-SAYED: Weak, cowardly, won't stand up until his poll numbers drop.
ROGERS: You're going to find out that this guy is not what he says he is.
QUESTION: But, in 30 years of doing debates, I have never seen it continue during the commercial, but it did.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TAPPER: No-holds-barred debates this week in key Senate races. You saw those there, Georgia and Maine and Michigan. Will any of it move the needle? My panel joins me to discuss.
Brad, let me start with you. Did any of these debates, based on the debates or the clips you saw, change anything, do you think?
BRAD TODD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I think, in the Michigan race, it may it may have done so.
Abdul El-Sayed, the big question, he came from the far left of the Democratic primary. The question for him is, can he renounce a lot of the things that got him pushed over to the left? And he did not do so. I think that race is -- they have got three more debates, by the way, in Maine. I think that's a big deal. Four debates in one race is a huge deal.
I have negotiated a lot of these debates. I have coached candidates for them. You know, they don't often change the needle, but sometimes they do. I don't know if Thom Tillis beats Kay Hagan in 2014 without the debates. I think the debates changed that race fundamentally.
So some of these races, it may matter more than anything else that happens.
TAPPER: What do you think, Karen?
KAREN FINNEY, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: You know, I think generally one debate can make a difference, but then I think it becomes diminishing returns unless you have a breakout moment or you really screw up. And I...
TAPPER: Did you see anything that was either of those?
FINNEY: Not really. I mean, look, what you saw was Democrat -- both sides trying to press their the talking points, right? And a big message for Democrats with the Republican candidates is, you are going to be held accountable for supporting Trump because the Trump policies are so unpopular.
And Republicans are trying to make it about how wacky the Democrats are, rather than talking about policy and what the impact has been. So I didn't see anybody have -- I think everybody did fine. Like, I didn't see anybody have a huge breakout moment, but I didn't see anybody make any mistakes.
TAPPER: So The Cook Political Report moved three Senate races towards Democrats and estimates potential pickups of two to six seats for the Democratic Party. And now Chuck Schumer's PAC, the Democratic leader, is putting $5 million into the race for Hamilton in Kansas.
What does that say about the shifting turf, that everything seems to be eking in the Democrats' direction? And do you think a blue wave is coming?
ASHLEY DAVIS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I think a blue wave, as much as it can, is coming in the House. Whether that's nine to nineteen, which Cook is now saying, but, in the first term for Trump, it was 29 to 40. So it's never going to be as much as it was in 2018.
[09:35:00]
But I also think -- and here's my -- I do this. This is like officially silly season, so we're all looking at all of these different polls.
FINNEY: Yes. Fair.
DAVIS: But let's talk about Kansas for a second. Let's talk about Texas.
In 2018, Cook, who I highly respect, they had Marsha Blackburn as a toss-up, and they had Ted Cruz as a toss-up. Is Kansas the Tennessee of 2018? I'm not there yet that we're losing the Senate. The House, yes. And I'm actually OK with that. I think that divided government's good, especially for us going into 2028. We won't own everything.
But I'm not there yet in the Senate. We will see.
TAPPER: Corbin, let me ask you. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez, for whom you used to work, will be campaigning for Abdul El- Sayed in Michigan this week.
At a closed New York fund-raiser, she said, reported by "The New York Times" -- quote -- "What we do is that we break open the entire political calculus in America, period, because, if you can win, if Abdul can win, anybody can win anywhere" -- unquote.
The argument she's making is that, a progressive like El-Sayed can win in Michigan, that breaks open the map. This is part of the Bernie Sanders theory of the case. You give Democrats who are dormant, progressives who haven't voted a reason to vote, they will turn out in droves.
CORBIN TRENT, CO-FOUNDER, BRAND NEW CONGRESS AND JUSTICE DEMOCRATS: Yes.
TAPPER: Do you agree? And do you think Abdul El-Sayed Michigan is actually a template for anyone winning anywhere?
TRENT: I mean, I think that it's definitely a step in that direction for sure.
I mean, I think that what's going to determine whether or not a Democrat can win in places like Tennessee again, which carried Bill Clinton twice, elected Al Gore, I mean, places like Tennessee, West Virginia, Kansas, that used to be actually Democratic strongholds at some points in our history that's not that long ago.
I think what really changes that is, do Democrats start to deliver or at least do their best to deliver in '27 and up to '28? If they win the House and the Senate, like you said, we're going to have a divided government. Do they put Trump on his heels? Is he vetoing bills? Is he actually going in there and standing in the way of things that people believe can change their lives in a positive way? And I think, if Democrats can do that, then, yes, anybody can win
anywhere.
TODD: I think there's a little bit simpler explanation on Kansas, and I do think Roger Marshall's in trouble. The reason he's in trouble is because Adam Hamilton is exactly the kind of Democrats they should have been recruiting a long time.
He's very critical of the Democratic power structure. He's critical of Chuck Schumer. And he -- religion's a major part of his life. He's the pastor of the largest church in Kansas. And you and I grew up in rural areas where people who are very comfortable with their faith trust people who are comfortable with their faith.
And I think that's is a factor, but we may have a lumpy map. Minnesota is actually a race that nobody's talking about. It stays in the margin of error. It's because Peggy Flanagan, again, came from the far left of the Democratic primary. Michele Tafoya may sneak up. Wouldn't be wild if she saves the Senate in a race nobody's talking about.
FINNEY: Although, in Minneapolis, we are seeing over -- huge turnout, not surprisingly, Latino and African-Americans, who witnessed the horror of what ICE did. So, I mean, don't forget that calculation.
Look, I think one of the things that's exciting about Kansas is also, this pastor, he represents a cadre of Kansas, I think there are about half-a-dozen, more than the DSA, four DSA, six faith leaders, who are running as Democrats because of their faith and trying to reclaim the faith conversation, which I think is exciting for the party, because it means people are running on their values.
When I have heard Hamilton talk about that -- some of the disagreements he has, he's not disagreeing about the idea, for example, of universal health care. He might disagree how we get there. And so I think that's going to make for an interesting conversation if Democrats both, if we get a blue wave and if they decide to put a lot of the petty ego aside and actually not just put Trump on his heels, but figure out how to use their power to get something done.
DAVIS: And there's a Democrat governor that no one remembers.
TAPPER: Right.
DAVIS: I mean, there's always everyone quoting that there's a never been a Republican -- or Democratic senator for so long.
FINNEY: Yes.
DAVIS: But there is a Democrat governor, so there's a path.
TAPPER: In her second term, I think.
DAVIS: Yes.
FINNEY: And she's very popular.
DAVIS: And very popular.
TODD: It's arguably A three-party state, actually.
FINNEY: Yes.
DAVIS: But New Hampshire over the last couple weeks, it's just starting to have a bigger gap. I'm still thinking Sununu has a chance. Are you agreeing with me or not?
TODD: I think New Hampshire races don't start...
(CROSSTALK)
DAVIS: Sorry, I just took over the show.
(CROSSTALK)
TAPPER: No, it's fine. I was going to come to you on Maine, but that's fine.
TODD: I think races in New Hampshire start very late. Kelly Ayotte is a popular governor. She's going to be the main force on the ticket. It won't be anything in Washington.
I think Sununu has a good shot.
TAPPER: What about...
TRENT: But we're seeing Democrats actually turn out more in early voting, right? We're seeing...
TODD: But that's -- they vote earlier.
DAVIS: Yes, they always vote early, yes.
(CROSSTALK)
TRENT: But we're seeing it beat their -- in some cases, it's beating the presidential turnout.
DAVIS: But not in North Carolina.
TAPPER: Corbin, let me just ask you about Maine. Can Troy Jackson get it over the hump, do you think?
TRENT: I think absolutely?
TAPPER: Really?
TRENT: Yes, I think especially if they latch on to the Susan Collins corruption stuff that's happening. I think, if they can push that a little further, get that into the news more.
She's running on trust, I think. She's garnered a lot of trust over the years.
TAPPER: And she's chair of Appropriations. She's brought a lot of bacon home to Maine or lobster.
(CROSSTALK)
[09:40:01]
TRENT: I think she's definitely going to be hard to beat, but I think that we have got a cycle right now where you have got the headwinds on the Republican Party, tailwinds to a degree on the Democratic Party.
And so I think, if you're going to be able to beat her, this is the cycle.
TAPPER: All right, don't go anywhere. We have more panel coming up.
Coming up next, what our expert panelists, what they're going to be watching as the midterms enter this final stretch. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
TAPPER: Welcome back to STATE OF THE UNION.
Let's go around the horn to get a sense of what each of my panelists is watching just 23 days out from Election Day.
Karen, I'm going to start with you. What are you fixating on as we come to the homestretch?
FINNEY: So, I have been talking to campaigns about, how real does it feel on the ground? Because I think none of us really trust those poll numbers.
[09:45:01]
TAPPER: Yes. We are out-of-touch elitists.
FINNEY: Yes.
(LAUGHTER)
TAPPER: So, I have been saying, OK, what are you hearing on the doors? What is the reaction to the candidates when they are not just going to the big rallies, but when they're doing the smaller events and just sort of going into small businesses?
And I keep hearing that it's quite real. So it's not just -- and we're talking a lot about the dissatisfaction with Trump, which none of us should be surprised about. But it's also people are excited about our candidates. And so that's what I'm going to continue to watch is, again what's the tension between what we're seeing in the polls and what people are literally hearing on the ground and seeing on the ground?
TAPPER: Brad?
TODD: Well, first off, most of the time I think elections are about independence. And I think they still are predominantly. But you could decide the Senate this year on unity.
Ken Paxton's currently only getting 86 percent of Republicans because we had a split primary for good reason.
TAPPER: And he's a troubled candidate.
TODD: He's a lift. He's a real lift for John Cornyn voters.
TAPPER: Yes.
TODD: If he can get up to 95 percent of Republicans, he wins, case closed. Same in Michigan. Abdul El-Sayed is losing 13 percent of black voters right now. That's probably too many for him to hang on and win.
So I think unity in those two races could tip the balance of the Senate.
TAPPER: That's why Obama was in Michigan campaigning for him, among other reasons.
TODD: Sure.
TAPPER: Corbin?
TRENT: The two things I'm looking for are the gas prices when I drive down the road in East Tennessee, and then when I go buy groceries, the rib eye, how much that -- I mean, I think literally this election is going to come down to how people feel about the economy.
And I think that's going to go all across the country. I don't think that matters where you're at. And as long as this $6.11 on diesel stays every time I drive by the Amoco, then, yes, that's what I'm watching.
DAVIS: The only hope we have on that, though, is, do people just realize why the gas prices are high? Which everyone knows it's because of the war. The president said he's not going to do anything about that until after the election.
So do they know that's baked in and still end up voting for Republicans?
TRENT: No.
DAVIS: I don't know. I agree with you. OK, we will see.
(LAUGHTER)
FINNEY: Fair enough.
DAVIS: But I want to see if NRSC starts playing in Minnesota.
TAPPER: That's the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.
DAVIS: Sorry. Thanks for interpreting for me.
TAPPER: Yes, sorry.
DAVIS: I live in D.C., obviously.
TAPPER: But if they put money in Minnesota, you want to see that.
DAVIS: It's going to be -- if they really think that's a true race, and also how much more money they put in New Hampshire.
I think that, obviously, we have taken everything out, or they have taken everything out of North Carolina. They have taken out of Georgia, realizing that Democrats have those seats in the Senate. Are we going to put some money other places?
TAPPER: That is really what I watch is, where do the parties put their money? Because the polling, the public polling is not as good as the private polling that the campaigns and the parties have, and that dictates where they put what's most important in politics, money.
FINNEY: But I also -- we don't talk about it enough. We have -- for Democrats to remember that Ohio and Florida Senate races, those are special elections. So I'm also watching those, because, if we win, that means two more Democrats in the Senate in that interim interregnum, if you will.
TAPPER: You might get half. You might get half of that.
FINNEY: I'm just -- I will take either. I will take both.
(CROSSTALK)
TRENT: I think seeing Florida come close is going to be...
(CROSSTALK)
TAPPER: Really?
DAVIS: If a Supreme Court steps down between now and the end of the year.
FINNEY: Exactly, exactly, or Trump loses his mind.
(CROSSTALK)
TRENT: I think if Nixon comes within even five or six points, as a Democratic Socialist...
TODD: In Florida.
TRENT: ... in Florida, I think that is a bellwether.
FINNEY: She's not a Democratic Socialist.
(CROSSTALK)
TODD: I will take that.
(CROSSTALK)
FINNEY: She's a capitalist.
TRENT: She's a member of DSA.
(CROSSTALK)
FINNEY: She joined last fall. Don't do that. She joined last fall.
TODD: They're all DSA.
(CROSSTALK)
TAPPER: Anyway, thanks, for one and all. Appreciate it.
Secretary Pete Hegseth's plans to livestream an execution may have hit a roadblock. That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:53:08]
TAPPER: The execution may not be televised after all. That's according to President Trump, who now says he has not yet decided whether to livestream the execution by firing squad of the Fort Hood shooter, Nidal Hasan.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: There are two thoughts, don't show it and show it. I'll make a decision ultimately. I know what the military would like to do, but we'll make a decision.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TAPPER: By the military, Trump is referring to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who sources say took many in the Pentagon by surprise when he announced his plan to make Nidal Hasan's execution public.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PETE HEGSETH, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY: And we'll make sure that people are able to watch it, that it's public, because people need to understand that this is -- there's serious consequences for these types of things.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TAPPER: As defense secretary, Hegseth has called for no quarter in the war for Iran. No quarter means taking no prisoners, killing, surrendering enemy soldiers. It's a war crime.
Hegseth has overseen what critics say are extrajudicial killings of people accused of transporting drugs in the Caribbean, providing no evidence publicly to back up those claims used to justify summary executions. Hegseth has also repeatedly blocked the promotions of female and non-white officers. The Pentagon denies that had anything to do with gender or race.
He has called the notion that diversity is our strength -- quote -- "the single dumbest phrase in military history."
These are ideas perhaps more at home in the 1930s, coincidentally, the last time the U.S. carried out a public execution, more at home then than in 2026. And these facts are important for this context, because they say something about Hegseth and where his priorities lie and what his mentality is.
Using public executions to send a message is traditionally the hallmark of repressive dictatorships like Iran or North Korea or others.
[09:55:08]
Retired General Sean MacFarland, who was commander of Fort Hood, personally approved Nidal Hasan's execution, he wrote that livestreaming it -- quote -- "surrenders a piece of the moral high ground" in the war against groups like al Qaeda and ISIS -- quote -- "by adopting their barbaric practice of video recording the executions of their prisoners" -- unquote.
No one's defending Nidal Hasan. He admitted to his crimes. He was convicted in a military court. But this issue of livestreaming his execution highlights a deeper concern.
Republican Senator John Curtis of Utah warned that -- quote -- "A civilization erodes when it cultivates an appetite for executions as a form of entertainment."
And while Hegseth often uses religious framing to justify his actions, the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops called his plans -- quote -- "a barbaric promotion of a culture of death" that would -- quote -- "undermine the moral fabric of our nation."
It's not even a question about whether or not extremist groups will use images of uniformed American soldiers executing Nidal Hasan, who is now a wheelchair-bound paraplegic, whether or not they're going to use it for propaganda purposes against the United States. Nidal Hasan himself reportedly told military officials that he wishes to become a martyr.
Why is Secretary Hegseth giving this gift to terrorists?
Thank you for spending your Sunday morning with us.
"FAREED ZAKARIA GPS" starts next.
