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CNN Live Sunday

Can Congressman Condit Get Reelected?

Aired August 26, 2001 - 17:16   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
STEPHEN FRAZIER, CNN ANCHOR: Congressman Gary Condit's interviews this week about missing Washington intern Chandra Levy are still evoking strong reaction and negative responses outweigh positive comment. Could they have an effect in the voting booth? Here is CNN national correspondent Bob Franken.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Before Chandra Levy, Gary Condit was a political sure thing, winning his last election with 67 percent of the vote.

REP. GARY CONDIT (D), CALIFORNIA: No, I did not lie.

FRANKEN: But in the rumble of his media interviews is a CNN poll that shows 61 percent of the registered voters in his district now say they would not vote for him if he runs again; 29 percent say they would. That result has a plus or minus sampling error of six points.

Democratic leaders are watching very closely.

TERRY MCAULIFFE, DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN: I think Gary is going to make his own decision if he wants to run for office again. It's up to Gary and the voters of Central California to make that decision, and he will make that decision himself.

FRANKEN: Forty-eight percent of those surveyed in the CNN poll go on to say, they believe it's likely he was actually involved in Chandra Levy's disappearance, 44 percent say not likely. Given the 5 percent margin of error, that is considered statistically an even split.

At the very same time, a plurality approves of Condit's work in Congress: 48 percent to 37 percent, with a five-point possible margin of error.

And a separate poll taken by the home town "Modesto Bee" newspaper show a plurality opposing his resignation: 44 percent no, 39 percent yes, 17 percent saying they didn't know. Margin of error: Plus of minus slightly over four points.

Glimmers of hope to the man who's doing damage control on the talk shows. ABBE LOWELL, CONDIT'S ATTORNEY: I don't think Congressman Condit is thinking about resigning. I think he would like to talk to his constituents about what kind of a job he's done as a congressman.

FRANKEN: Nor, said attorney Abbe Lowell, should Condit be asked to give up his membership on the House Intelligence Committee.

Another trouble spot: the Anne Marie Smith matter, did Condit have an affair with the flight attendant? She says yes, he says no, and he questions her motives. Now, her lawyer says she's planning legal action.

JIM ROBINSON, ANNE MARIE SMTIH'S ATTORNEY: He defamed my client, he slandered her, he libeled her, all of the above.

FRANKEN (on camera): Now Condit must consider his next action. The consensus is that so far he has done himself nothing by harm.

Bob Franken, CNN, Modesto, California.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FRAZIER: Let's spend some more time now on that CNN poll with CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider, who joins us from Washington. Bill, thanks for coming in on a Sunday.

The numbers are very dramatic when you look back to the background you have been sharing with us of strong support for Congressman Condit based on his performance in Congress until now.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: That's right. His district was known popularly as Condit country. That's how they described it. He's been a long-time member of the state legislature and a member of Congress, but now with 61 percent of your constituents saying they would not vote to reelect you, those numbers are certainly not good. It looks likes he would have a very tough time if he chooses to run for reelection next year.

FRAZIER: That is -- but you just said the important words "next year." That's a snapshot in time taken this weekend, but a year can pass, and as you know, a lot can happen in one year.

SCHNEIDER: Well, the one thing that would have to happen in order to make it possible for him to run for reelection is that they find Chandra Levy. If she is alive -- and we all hope she is -- then she would have to give her version of the story, which could possibly exonerate Congressman Condit.

If, tragically, she is not alive, than it's got to be cleared that he has absolutely nothing do with the tragedy. But in any case, I believe that it would be impossible for him to survive unless that matter is brought to some kind of resolution.

FRAZIER: Is his reading of what his constituents tell him the sole source of power in this? Must he resign, or could he, for example, be stripped of committee assignments, as Bob Franken mentioned there in passing, by Democratic leadership?

SCHNEIDER: Well certainly, his constituents have the ultimate say in whether or not he survives in power. He can serve out his term. I don't think he can be forced to resign. His colleagues can turn against him, as many of them have, they're openly critical. They could say that he should not serve on the Intelligence Committee and they can force him off that committee on the theory that he is vulnerable to blackmail and he should not be privy to the nation's intelligence matters.

But ultimately, the question is: Will he resign? There is no indication that he will, and in fact Democrats don't want him to resign, because they don't want to have a special election in that district that could open it up to a Republican. That's a district that voted for George Bush last year. What a lot of Democrats are hoping is simply that he will not run for another term.

FRAZIER: And give them plenty of notice then to put forward a candidate that could hold on to that seat?

SCHNEIDER: That's right. And the question is, what is that seat? Because there is redistricting this year. In just the next couple of weeks, they are going to announce what the new district looks like. Will it be packed with more Democrats to make it safer for either Condit or a new Democratic face, or will the Democrats, who control restricting in California, give up on Condit and say, look, we are just going to take Democrats out of this district, put them in other districts nearby to threaten some Republican members of Congress.

FRAZIER: At least from the Republican side, though, there's no great animosity, because he has been a very conservative Democrat, so he is not getting attacks from that side of the aisle?

SCHNEIDER: Well, he's getting some attacks from Republicans. They want the seat. Look, their majority is razor-thin. If Democrats pick up six seats, the Republican majority and all those committee chairs will go. They would very much like to take the seat, even if he sympathizes with them on an awful lot of issues.

I think the only piece of good news -- and it's only moderately good news -- in this poll is that 48 percent of his constituents say he is still doing a good job as their congressman. In other words, they don't like him personally, they wouldn't vote for him, but almost half say he is doing a good job as their congressman.

So, if Chandra Levy were found, and if in the next six months or so until the March 5 primary he can convince his constituents that he can still do a good job, then he might have a chance. But I wouldn't bet on it.

FRAZIER: Bill Schneider, thanks for those insights today into the political situation facing Congressman Condit. Thanks.

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