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CNN Live Sunday

America's New War: America's Choices and Options in Afghanistan

Aired September 30, 2001 - 15:43   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: As the threat of a U.S. military strike rose more eminent Afghan refugees are fleeing to neighboring countries and workers say the crisis has turned into a catastrophe with as many as a million refugees risking their lives to reach camps and millions more at grave risk of starving to death in Afghanistan.

From Pakistan here's CNN's Mike Chinoy.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

MIKE CHINOY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: For the international aid agencies it's a desperate race against time with the humanitarian disaster unfolding on both sides of the border. Here in Pakistan refugees continue to arrive. I spent much of Sunday visiting a couple of refugee camps, talking to some people who had arrived just in the past few days from Afghanistan.

They spoke of a dangerous journey by mule through mountain passes paying bribes to get into this country. The conditions when they arrived very, very grim -- ramshackle dwellings or tents sometimes even out in the open -- very, very limited supplies of food and water.

The Pakistani government doesn't want these new refugees -- Pakistan with over two million Afghans already in the country trying to keep the new arrivals at bay.

International aid agencies are moving ahead with plans to establish up to 100 new camps in remote areas along the Pakistan- Afghanistan border. Site surveys have been carried out, supplies are being put into position so that when the expected influx of what the UNHCR says could be over a million people does take place the aid agencies will be ready.

Meanwhile, conditions on the other side of the border in Afghanistan are, if any, even worse. There are many, many thousands of people on the move. And estimated three to four million people are already in serious trouble because of the drought of the past three or four years and the acute food shortages which have followed.

The UNHCR says that a UN office in the city of Muzaffar was looted and ransacked by a mob a couple of days ago -- people desperate for food. Warehouses belonging to other non governmental aid organizations in Muzaffar have also been looted -- a sign not only of the desperation of the people but of a society that is beginning to unravel as the pressure on the Taliban increases and so do the fears of a possible military conflict in the coming days or weeks.

Mike Chinoy, CNN, Peshawar, Pakistan.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, Pakistan -- where we just heard from Mike Chinoy -- is quick emerging as a key player in America's New War on terrorism. It's strategically important because it shares a long border with Afghanistan. With a look now at Pakistan's military -- how it might help the U.S. we're going to go to Leon Harris in Atlanta. Leon, hello.

LEON HARRIS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Daryn. Yeah, we're taking a closer look at exactly the role that -- or what we think may be the role that Pakistan could possibly play because, as you said, it is a key ally now of the U.S. campaign against terrorism and this despite the fact that it has been the only country that continues to recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.

Now the relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan is absolutely crucial right now for several strategic reasons.

Now let's take a look at -- beginning now -- here at some animation that we've got -- that we put together to show exactly what we're talking about here. Pakistan has up to eight military bases that could be used. Five of these bases border Afghanistan or very close to it and they could actually help the U.S. to launch anti- terrorism strikes. Of course, we don't know exactly what any plan of action here may be but this is particularly the base that we think we may be a very important one -- that is in the town or around the city of Peshawar.

Peshawar is very strategically located very close to the capitol of Afghanistan -- Kabul. That base could play a very important role.

Now Pakistan has said that it will allow U.S. aircraft to use its air space but it has not been confirmed whether or not it will allow the U.S. to actually use its air bases for any offensive strikes hitting any territory in Afghanistan.

Now, as you can see, the Pakistani bases would benefit the U.S. because they're much closer to Afghanistan than any of the battle groups that could be stationed in the Arabian Sea or the Persian Gulf. And as we speak about that we know the U.S.S. Enterprise and the Carl Vincent are already there in those areas.

So you wonder what would a carrier strike look like from that region? Well, take a look at this now -- this other animation we put together here shows you what would be in play here. The distance involved here could be up to 2,000 miles one way and that would be a really long stretch for a fighter to reach Afghanistan one way or actually to go there and make it back.

It would mean airborne refueling and in that kind of a case you could be also talking about pilot fatigue becoming a significant issue there.

So now what if Pakistan does not allow any aircraft and troops to deploy from its air bases to go into Afghanistan? Well, the military is looking to some other options to handle that particular circumstance.

Now look at this -- Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan -- three countries which all border Afghanistan could become the launch pads for any U.S. strikes. Now all of these countries -- again, just as Pakistan has -- has offered their air space but there are some very important differences that remain on the table right now -- for instance, the use of any of the air bases in these countries to be used for any offensive strikes. That issue has not been settled.

Now as for Iran it is also a major player here. It has said that it would participate in a worldwide campaign against terror just as long as it was controlled by the United Nations not by the United States and that is a very important snag there.

And China -- you see there on the map there to the east -- shares a very narrow border with Afghanistan but China has tightened security in that region and is dealing with it's own simmering Muslim separatist problems. So China's participation here is something that has not yet be settled or mapped out either.

Now on another note here the state bank of Pakistan ordered banks to freeze the assets of 27 groups suspected of handling any terrorist links and we don't know exactly how that's going to play into all of this as well.

And coming up a little bit later on, Daryn, we're going to take a look -- a much more in depth look at three of those nations that we just talked about that are on the border of this region. And we'll talk about the very important role they may have to play. But for now, Daryn, back to you in Washington.

KAGAN: All right, Leon, really looking forward to that. First, though, we want to -- excuse me -- get more on this military angle. And joining me here in Washington to discuss overall -- and the overall military outlook is Major General Donald Shepperd. He is the former head of the Air National Guard and is a CNN military analyst. General, welcome and thanks for being with us.

MAJ. GEN. DONALD SHEPPERD (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: My pleasure, Daryn.

KAGAN: We want to pick up on this Pakistan point that Leon described so well -- making the differentiation between air space versus air bases -- space versus base. It makes a big difference on what you're able to carry out.

SHEPPERD: Yeah, a big difference there. Air space is key. We need to be able to go through if we strike from other bases in the Mid East or if we strike from the United States or from carriers. You need the air space to go through. And you want the shortest route possible so you can generate many more flights per day or in a 24-hour period.

The proximity that the bases provide in Pakistan would be very important but they have political considerations in their own country we have to be very mindful of.

KAGAN: They have their own problems trying to figure out how to balance and they don't want to anger other people who wouldn't be too happy about the presence of U.S. planes right there on Pakistani soil.

SHEPPERD: Correct. The moves by General Musharraf -- the president of Pakistan -- have been nothing short of heroic and he has to be very careful in balance his own political situation.

Our president and our secretary of dense have made it very clear that we appreciate any help from nations that they can give us but they must decided what that is. Who in their right mind would have predicted that we would have the possibility of flying through the air space of the Stans -- Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazahkstan? We never would have thought of that -- even Kurdistan.

And these things may become very important later on as this develops.

KAGAN: Yeah, a lot of things we didn't predict we were going to have to be able -- or be able to do before September 11th.

Now right after September 11th we heard news of deployment -- of U.S. deployment. And since then we're not hearing that much. So what's taking place that we don't know about?

SHEPPERD: Yeah, two good things -- first is operational security. I've never seen it better in my lifetime. It's always been a bone of contention with military people -- "Don't tell them anything that puts us in danger." At the same time the American public has to be assured that we're doing something and they have the right to know what we're doing with their sons and daughters.

KAGAN: To a certain respect so they stay safe.

SHEPPERD: To a certain respect -- not tactical details.

KAGAN: Right.

SHEPPERD: You don't want to give away surprise but they need to know. And so what we're doing is we're massing forces in the area -- getting them in the right place so when the military options that we plan to employ are decided upon by the president they will be at the right place to cause the right effect, which is the real key.

KAGAN: So even though we're not hearing anything you can rest assured a lot is still taking place . . .

SHEPPERD: A lot is going on.

KAGAN: . . . right now? Major General Donald Shepperd, thank you for joining us. SHEPPERD: My pleasure.

KAGAN: General, good to have you with us.

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