Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Live Sunday

Where's Osama bin Laden?

Aired November 18, 2001 - 15:13   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DONNA KELLEY, CNN ANCHOR: As the Taliban retreats, the question remains: Where is Osama bin Laden?

A story in Britain's Sunday "Times" says that allied Special Forces have narrowed the search to a 30 square mile area in southeast Afghanistan, but British officials would not confirm the report, and neither would Secretary of State Colin Powell.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: I can't confirm the reports that we're within 30 miles of Mr. bin Laden. I can assure you that it's getting harder for him to hide as more and more territory of Afghanistan comes out from under Taliban control, and there are no neighbors in the region that will be anxious to see him show up as a guest. So I think it's going to be more and more difficult, and as the president has said all along, we're going to smoke him out, and we'll get him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLEY: Secretary Powell says he believes that bin Laden is still in Afghanistan, since there's no evidence to the contrary. But Taliban officials say that they are no longer sure of bin Laden's whereabouts.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

QUESTION: Where is Osama bin Laden? (UNINTELLIGIBLE). Do you know where he is?

MULLAH ABDUL SALAM ZAEEF, TALIBAN AMBASSADOR TO PAKISTAN: I don't know where is he.

QUESTION: Is he in Afghanistan?

ZAEEF: I don't know exactly where is him -- he is in Afghanistan or not.

QUESTION: Has he left the Taliban-controlled area?

ZAEEF: I think he is not in this area.

(END VIDEO CLIP) KELLEY: So, where could Osama bin Laden be, and what would he do if he faced capture?

For some insight into these questions, let's turn now to CNN's terrorism analyst, Peter Bergen. Peter, nice to have you join us today -- thanks.

PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Hi, Donna.

KELLEY: If that report is true, if they have gotten him into this 30 square mile area, if he's backed into a corner, give us some ideas of what you think that he might do?

BERGEN: Well, Donna, I think that he's long been prepared to die in his holy war, so unfortunately, I think, right now, he may have already decided that he's willing to die. But he's not like Saddam Hussein, who is interested in his own self preservation and was willing to surrender at a certain point. I don't think bin Laden will surrender.

KELLEY: You don't think he'd surrender. What do you think he might do?

BERGEN: Well, I mean, you know, it's difficult to speculate about the future, but I think that his -- the pattern in his statements, particularly the recent ones about acquiring nuclear and chemical weapons, we don't quite know what he means by weapons. But he has some capability in both of these areas. Certainly (ph) he's acquired -- attempted to acquire these things and experimented in an amateur way with chemical weapons.

I believe that we take his words to be the best guide to his actions, that he has something in store in that area.

KELLEY: Well, in fact, you're quoted that he's threatened to use nuclear weapons, and saying that you think he'll go out in a blaze of nuclear glory, and that we should take that threat seriously.

BERGEN: I really do. I think that if you look at -- you know, in 1996, he declared war against Americans. A lot of people took that to be sort of a rhetorical flourish. It turned out to be deadly serious, and I think that when he makes these kinds of statements, we've got to pay attention to them. Underestimating him turned out to be a serious error in the lights of -- the events of September 11.

KELLEY: You know, Christiane Amanpour reported even on Friday that they found that safe house, that they found documents and talking about the biggest bomb. Even if he doesn't -- and here's some pictures of what we had reported on even on Friday. Condoleezza Rice, who is the national security adviser, said, though, she knows -- and others in the government know that he wants them, but they don't think that he's been able to acquire them.

BERGEN: Well, there's a distinction to be made between, you know, atomic weapons. Obviously, you know, bin Laden and al Qaeda are not a nation state. The notion that somehow they would have developed a real atomic weapon, I think is extremely unlikely.

However, the notion of acquiring some kind of crude, you know, uranium waste that can be applied to, together with a conventional explosive, to create what's known as a dirty nuclear bomb, that's well within their capabilities. And I think it would be wishful thinking to assume that they don't have that kind of capability, Donna.

KELLEY: Let me ask you, Peter, what you think about how he may have changed. "Newsweek" has a reporter who got to interview him on November 7, a Pakistani editor, and said that they were startled or surprised at the way he's changed. That he's normally thin, but that he'd gained weight. His beard has gone gray, and I think a lot of people have noticed that in the pictures and the videotape that we've seen of him. He does appear to have aged. That he had become pale, almost white, they thought possibly from hiding for all those months in the caves. But that he was confident, that he was more aggressive and louder.

How do you think he's changed, and what do you think he might be thinking?

BERGEN: Well, you know, I think the fact that he gave an interview to a Pakistani journalist does show the high degree of confidence, because why -- you know, you can see from this videotape, he's able to make these videotapes. Why allow somebody into the inner circles, as it were, who's an outsider with the security problems that that would entail?

I think it shows a degree of confidence in his own holy war, and I think that it shows that he's very -- as you (UNINTELLIGIBLE) going to the question of his age, how he's aged. He's certainly aged. You know, the last year or two, his beard has turned almost completely white in the new pictures we've seen. He does look very tired. But I guess, you know, you or I would be too if we were on the run in the way that he is.

KELLEY: He's certainly stated his mission in loud and clear terms. What about his family, though? What's he willing to do with his family, with his wives and children? I think at last report, I heard he had maybe four wives. Do you know much more about his family, and how he feels about them and their safety?

BERGEN: Well, he has four wives. His most recent wife, he married a year ago. She's a Yemeni. They are all believed to be in Afghanistan. Most of his children are in Afghanistan. He has a couple of kids -- at least a couple of kids in Saudi Arabia, a daughter, I believe, is about three or four, and his oldest son, who must be in his early 20s now.

However, you know, the family -- most of the family has been with him in Afghanistan since he arrived there in May of 1996. He actually brought them with him from Sudan, his previous base. Where they are right now, I just simply don't know.

KELLEY: What about Atef, No. 2 or 3 in commend, confirmed killed now? What about that relationship? What does it do to the organization? And they had a personal relationship, too, as well by marriage. Atef's daughter, I believe, married Osama bin Laden's son. How would he feel about that personally, and what would it do the organization with his death?

BERGEN: I think it would be quite a big blow, Donna. As you mentioned, there was a marital alliance, as it were. You know, just this year, the two families are intermarried. But also, Atef has been -- known bin Laden since the early 80s. They were together quite a lot. He was a military commander of the group. He was involved, according to the U.S. government, in attacks against Americans in Somalia, involving in the planning of the U.S. Embassy attacks in Africa, and apparently involved in the planning of September 11. So his death surely would have had a significant blow on al Qaeda.

KELLEY: And they talked about maybe plans that are in the can might still go through, but maybe in the future.

Let's look at a "Newsweek" poll real quickly, if we can. Talking about if the United States captures or kill bin Laden, would it inspire or reduce terrorist attacks? Inspire terrorist attacks, 44 percent of those polled believe it would, but 48 percent think that it would reduce terrorism. This (UNINTELLIGIBLE) what might it do around the world and in terrorism?

BERGEN: Well, unfortunately, I think that bin Laden's group, judging from their previous activities, probably have some other plot, which is already in the planning stages and there's already a plan. So I think bin Laden's death wouldn't impact things that are already in the planning stages. I mean, one of the hallmarks of this group is to spend many years planning their attacks and also doing unexpected kinds of attacks. So I think there may be at least one other significant attack that is in the pipeline, as it were, already.

The death of bin Laden, I mean, you know, inevitably he will be kind of a martyr to his cause, to those who are his followers. But I do think eliminating the top leadership of the group, in the end, will go a long way to reducing the spectacular acts of terrorism this group has pulled off.

KELLEY: Peter, we're sure glad to have you come and talk with us today -- thank you so much.

BERGEN: Thanks, Donna.

KELLEY: Peter Bergen, who is our CNN commentator and author of "Holy War, Inc." Thanks very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com