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CNN Live Sunday

Anti-Taliban Forces Take Control of Tora Bora; bin Laden Missing

Aired December 16, 2001 - 15:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: Anti-Taliban forces say they have taken control of Tora Bora, the last major pockets of al Qaeda forces in Afghanistan. U.S. officials say that the statement may be premature, but intelligence reports indicate that may also be the case.

U.S. and Eastern Alliance forces launched intensive attacks today on the cave network to force out al Qaeda fighters. But the big question remains, where is Osama bin Laden?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CONDOLEEZZA RICE, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: We do not know where Osama bin Laden is right now, but we do know one thing: The amount of territory in which he can operate is shrinking. We also know that he is on the run, and part of the goal here was to break up this network and to disrupt it so it could not continue to plan and train and carry out terrorist activities. We will get him. It may take months; it may take a year.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SAVIDGE: There are reports from Eastern Alliance commanders that al Qaeda fighters and possibly Osama bin Laden are heading over the mountains into Pakistan. CNN's Kathleen Koch is at the Pentagon with reaction to this and the military operation in Afghanistan -- Kathleen.

KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Martin, no uncertainty here at the Pentagon is the lack of certainty about the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden. As you said, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says the Pentagon is getting mixed messages about his location.

Rumsfeld just wrapped up a surprise visit to Afghanistan, and he says that at this point, though, while they are getting these mixed messages, they've heard nothing that is, quote, "discouraging." At this point, the Pentagon does still believe that Osama bin Laden and his followers are holed up in the Tora Bora region of the White Mountains, and that's where the Pentagon says that these Eastern Alliance forces are making progress.

U.S. aircraft continue their bombing runs there, killing and wounding some al Qaeda forces, flushing out others, though no one can say for certain just how many remain.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: Well, we don't know what the number is, but we know what we're killing and we know what we're capturing. And we know the few that are surrendering. But one cannot know how many people are actually in those caves and tunnels and hiding in the mountains. And we know it's a discovery process. We keep finding more openings all the time. We do believe that it's going to be difficult to get out of there -- not impossible, but difficult.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KOCH: Secretary Rumsfeld's visit was to talk not only to the new leaders of Afghanistan about that country's future, but to thank U.S. forces. The secretary chatted with members of a special operations units and the U.S. Army's 10th Mountain Division, protecting Bagram Air Base near Kabul. The secretary said, he wanted to talk to, quote, "real people who are doing real things that are part of our plan."

Incidentally, Secretary Rumsfeld was warned not to leave the hard concrete of the air field there at Bagram Air Base, because just like the air base at Kandahar where those Marines were injured earlier today, they have not been -- the area has not been totally cleared of mines yet -- Martin.

SAVIDGE: Well, Kathleen, is there some concern if in fact Osama bin Laden is on the run toward Pakistan, does the U.S. have forces, or are there military forces trying to interdict?

KOCH: Martin, U.S. special operations forces are there on the ground with the members of the Eastern Alliance doing everything they can to keep them from crossing over the border. Of course, one of the main deterrents are a large numbers of Pakistani soldiers, military, who are lined up and down that border. But as the Pentagon has said many times, that is a long and very porous border.

SAVIDGE: That may be. Kathleen Koch at the Pentagon, thanks very much.

Afghanistan is fairly unknown territory to the United States military. What tactics is the U.S. using in its hunt for Osama bin Laden? And of course, the question now, are those tactics working? Joining us from Boston with some insight on this is William Martel, a military analyst and a professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College. Thanks for joining us this afternoon.

WILLIAM MARTEL, MILITARY ANALYST: My pleasure, Martin, how are you?

SAVIDGE: I'm fine. Do you have any concerns or doubts now that perhaps Osama bin Laden was not in the White Mountains, not in the Tora Bora region as the U.S. had thought?

MARTEL: I think it's too early to tell. I think the picture I have is of an enormous armada of technological and human kinds of resources that are now looking for this guy and have been now for quite some time. So I think it is too soon to tell whether he's left or what's going on, but I think one of the clear messages that is emerging is the sense that we are investing lots of time, effort, money and people in the search for bin Laden.

SAVIDGE: Well, say he is on the run now, say he is among those thousands said to be moving toward Pakistan. Is that a good thing when it comes to trying to find him, a moving target?

MARTEL: It simplifies matters in some ways. The question that bin Laden would confront is it a large entourage that moves or a small one. What we will rely upon are a series of both space-born, that is satellites as well as aircraft that will be looking, as well as people, all of whom will be looking extensively for both signatures of people as well as electronic signatures and the like, or signals that would indicate where people are and what they are doing and where they are going.

SAVIDGE: Give us an idea -- we've all seen these spy thriller movies of satellites showing an individual walking, sometimes running on the ground. Is that feasibly possible?

MARTEL: I think most people believe it is, and I think in addition to the satellite side, the other remarkable revolution that has occurred in the last two months is that we are now using unmanned aerial vehicles that also have the ability to look at people as well as look at the heat they generate and other signals, or other signatures, in the search for people.

SAVIDGE: And now clearly can you see with this imagery, especially the heat sensing?

MARTEL: Well, I know from commercial -- there are commercial satellite firms who sell imagery, which is one meter in resolution. And a one-meter resolution picture, for example of a city, you can clearly see individual houses, you can see vehicles, you can see the like. So it provides remarkable resolution, and that's presumably not as good as what governments are able to do.

SAVIDGE: Well, without giving away the farm technology-wise, what else could they use? I mean, say, trying to receive radio signals perhaps he's transmitting, talking to others?

MARTEL: That's a good question. We can also detect, look for what is called EL-INT, electronic intelligence as well as signals intelligence, SIG-INT. And we can rely upon both aircraft in the sky as well as satellites in orbit to look for him and to find these sources that would presumably give some indication of where someone is or where they've been.

SAVIDGE: And Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld says we may have to wait and see where he is. How would he appear, and how would we know that he has suddenly gone somewhere else?

MARTEL: I think we would rely upon -- the picture I have that I would urge people to thin about is picture either a telescope or a microscope that is looking at these areas in excruciating detail. It's looking at the images of people, it could be looking at electronic signals to get a sense of where people are.

We've also seen reports in the press of tapes, or voice -- of technologies allow one to pick up the signature, the distinct signature of an individual's voice. I picture all of that looking to find this individual, and having a sense of where he is at a given time, or may have been at a given time.

SAVIDGE: One of the things that has interested me is not so much the whereabouts of the man, but his family. Usually men don't like to be too far from their family. He has a number of wives, certainly an extended number of children. Has there been any indication as to where they are, and would they possibly be a key as to his whereabouts?

MARTEL: I don't know. That's an excellent question. What I think we would be doing is looking for all these different pieces of evidence that would create a mosaic, if you will, of an area that would give us some sense of where this individual might be, where his entourage might be. I would assume, on the other hand, that bin Laden and company would be looking at ways to make it difficult for us to find these tell-tale signs, if you will, of where people are and where they are moving.

SAVIDGE: The other thing I can't help but feel -- we have been saying for weeks that the noose was tightening, that he was surrounded. Now it seems very fluid. We don't know where he is, and that he may very well be on his way to Pakistan. Is that a fault of the media, or did the intelligence world overestimate its ability to track him?

MARTEL: My view has been that as I watch this, that most people both in the governmental side and the media side have been pretty cautious in their approach to this. And I think that in war, situations evolve in a very fluid sense, that what appears to be true today changes very quickly.

And the other watch word for people is that first reports are always wrong, and that you always rely upon the tincture of time to give you some sense of where we are. So I just think it is an evolving situation, that is very difficult and is one that we have to adapt to. So I don't put blame on either side. I think it's just the nature of war that we have to deal with these problems.

SAVIDGE: And that's very true. It is only just now that we learn that some control is being brought to that region. Thank you very much, William Martel, a military analyst and professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College.

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