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CNN Live Sunday
Interview with Ron Brownstein
Aired December 30, 2001 - 17:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's keep it on issue of politics and look at what is coming in the next year, 2002, and bring in Ron Brownstein of the "L.A. Times," also a regular with here at CNN.
Ron, happy new year! Good to see you.
RON BROWNSTEIN, "L.A. TIMES": Happy new year to you, Daryn.
KAGAN: Let's start in Florida, as if Florida politics couldn't get any more interesting, we bring in Janet Reno and a little Rosie O'Donnell to just kind of spice it up there. What is this governor's race looking like?
BROWNSTEIN: Janet Reno has really changed the landscape down there. Early on, Democrats were really optimistic about going after Jeb bush in 2002. As you mentioned, the president's brother...
KAGAN: She is such a lightening, though, Ron. I mean some people can't stand the women.
BROWNSTEIN: That's right. That is what's happened. What's happened is that with Reno in the race, the concern among Democrats has been that because she is so popular with the party base, she can't be beaten in a primary, but she is also, as you say, so polarizing that she probably can't win a general election.
So, this has really moved down on the Democratic radar in terms of a possibility of a pick-up. Reno is an unusual candidate though. I mean, ideologically she is very polarizing and a lot of Republicans and conservatives don't like her. But when I was down there earlier, she also has kind of a McCainesque, straight shooter, someone who is above politics appeal. So, she could still be a wild card, but in general Democrats are less optimistic than they were earlier last year.
KAGAN: I've got one word for you on Janet Reno and that's Elian in South Florida. I don't think she has a big chance up there.
Let's look at Jeb Bush's brother, President. He comes on his radio address and he starts bringing up some of these political topics besides the war on terrorism, he is looking at patients' bill of rights, he wants to stimulate the economy, increasing energy production. Controversial that in the past he hasn't been able to get passed. So why now? BROWNSTEIN: I think -- why now is going to be hard. Ultimately I think that they are going to have to give some ground. The reality is that the Democratic Senate feels much more comfortable opposing him on domestic issues than on issues relating to the war. Despite the high approval rating, we saw the stimulus plan basically break down at the end of last year over very serious ideological differences between the Republicans and the Democrats not only over the economy, but over health care, which was a sub-issue there.
Energy, the Senate Democrats are moving in a very different direction and the patients' bill of rights is one that is somewhat deadlocked because the House, Republican House, and the president and the Senate and the Democrats have gone in very different directions. You know, the choice really is between stalemate and what they did on education, which is one he didn't mention, actually he did mention it in his talk.
When they were able to get done with serious bipartisan negotiations, each side give a little and they came out with a pretty good bill, Daryn. They might be able to do that on some of these other areas, but they have to make the ultimate decision that they really want to get something done rather than having a stalemate they can take to the voters in the fall.
KAGAN: I want to look at my home state, and your paper's home state, California governor's race, fascinating governor's race. Gray Davis might have a tough time defending his seat.
BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely. And a microcosm of what is going on around the country. When this class of governors ran in 1998, everything was coming up roses.
States had huge surpluses in their budgets which meant the governors could run cutting taxes and increasing spending. Here we are four years later, and state after state after state, California first on the list, are facing budget squeezes that is making it much tougher, seeing approval ratings go down for a lot of the sitting governors, having to make tough decisions about spending and taxes and because of that, people like Gray Davis, even Jeb Bush in another world maybe even against another candidate, are in a much tougher situation than they would have been because the budgets are tight as the economy has gone down, incumbents go down with it.
It is going to be a tough fight for Gray Davis. He is a very diligent and sort of dogged politician, Terminatoresque, to use the analogy...
KAGAN: And in northern California -- sorry, northern California, southern California thing working with former L.A. mayor Richard Riordan getting in the race.
BROWNSTEIN: Right, Richard Riordan is the front runner for the Republican nomination. And Daryn, one thing about Riordan that make him formidable, the last time the Republicans ran against Davis in '98, that a candidate that was anti-abortion and anti-gun control. You really can't sell that statewide in California like some of the other big coastal suburban states.
Riordan is on the majority side of both of those issues so he can focus on the economic and fiscal vulnerabilities of Davis without having those kind of silver bullets used against him. It is going to be a tough race for Gray Davis.
KAGAN: Yes, kind of the opposite for Dick Riordan. He has to have the party fateful fall in love with him, opposite of what Janet Reno might find in Florida.
BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely. You could do this job.
KAGAN: I could? No, then we wouldn't get to visit with you, Ron. Thanks for coming in on a Sunday. Appreciate it. And once again, happy new year! Keep it healthy and safe.
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