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CNN Live Sunday
Interview With Defense Policy Analyst David Isby
Aired January 06, 2002 - 17:10 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: And now, for what is next in the war on terror, we are joined by defense policy analyst David Isby in Washington. Good afternoon, David. Good to see you.
DAVID ISBY, DEFENSE POLICY ANALYST: Good afternoon. Good to see you.
LIN: All right, let's talk about the consequences of what is going on the ground. The tragic death of this Special Ops sergeant, Nathan Chapman, just goes to show that there are still pockets of al Qaeda fighters out there who still pose a threat. What are the chances that U.S. forces are actually going to be able to seal up those pockets and capture those fighters?
ISBY: Certainly, it's going to be a very slow process. Fortunately, we will have the help of most of the Afghan population and of the new government in Kabul. However, having the U.S. there as a part of this will certainly help with the process. But there is going to be more military action in the weeks and months ahead.
LIN: But what is interesting about what is happening on the ground right now in Afghanistan is that it's really a microcosm of how al Qaeda typically works, in smaller operations, small cells, not only now inside of Afghanistan but around the world. How do you attack that problem, then?
ISBY: Well, there is two different problems here. Yes, the cell-like is political warfare. It's -- political warfare is countered by intelligence, but when you have them on Afghanistan, they are actually just guerrilla fighters, and you counter them with the dividing them from the local population, which is in the case they were basically a foreign occupying power in Afghanistan -- it's relatively easy to do.
So, here in Afghanistan, the Afghans, the U.S. military should be able to cut the al Qaeda off from their support, and take them out a few at a time.
LIN: Well, you point out something in here, David Isby, that may not be the situation in other countries where al Qaeda is operating. For example, you just pointed out that Afghanistan in a war on terrorism is a big fat target. We knew that there was a government that supported al Qaeda. We knew that Osama bin Laden lived in that country, and we knew exactly what the target would be. But as the target begins to move outside of Afghanistan, where does the war go?
ISBY: That is indeed the big question in Washington. There is a couple of issues which have been talked about, for example, in Somalia and Yemen. These are countries that do not control all of their territories, and indeed al Qaeda or al Qaeda associated-groups have operated there in the past. Some people have even added Columbia to that list, looking at the FARC, which they think may have some al Qaeda connections.
The big question, though, is Iraq, because even though Iraq is not directly linked to al Qaeda, Iraq has this long-running commitment to weapons of mass destruction and, as they've shown, a willingness to use them even against their own people. So that, what will be done with Iraq, who are developing these weapons is the main question.
Other issues remain. Hezbollah in Lebanon. Certainly they have terrorist atrocities dating back to the 1980s. So they are a potential target. Other issues.
LIN: David, let me ask you right then and there, do you think, though, that the next act in the war on terrorism is going to be a large-scale military one?
ISBY: The whole point of military action in the war on terrorism is to make possible political action. Political action in Afghanistan has removed the ability of Afghanistan to act as a sanctuary for terrorists, but this required U.S. military action to make it possible. So military operation isn't the end; it's the enabler.
Now, the key thing is going to be if you go to Iraq, it's going to require certainly much more extensive military action than we've seen in Afghanistan.
LIN: So David, if you are betting man, and we've got about five seconds, what is the next target?
ISBY: The next target, perhaps look for the low-hanging fruit, perhaps. Places like Somalia, Yemen, where the governments are likely to give us cooperation.
LIN: Low-hanging fruit. First time I've heard it characterized as such. Thank you so much, David Isby.
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