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CNN Live Sunday

Interview With Eric Margolis

Aired December 08, 2002 - 18:33   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: A new statement attributed to an al Qaeda spokesman says the terrorist group was behind the recent attacks in Kenya, and worse. More attacks may be coming. The al-Jazeera network broadcasted the message purported to be from one of Osama bin Laden's right hand men, Sulaiman Abu Ghaith. CNN has not been able to confirm that yet, but author and terrorism expert Eric Margolis is here with us. He is an authority on al Qaeda, and he joins us from Toronto. Good to see you, Eric. Thanks for being here.
ERIC MARGOLIS, TERRORISM EXPERT: Good evening.

LIN: All right, what do you make of this statement? I am not sure if you have actually had a chance to see it, but Sulaiman Abu Ghaith. What do you know about him?

MARGOLIS: I have seen it. He has emerged over the last few months as a purported spokesman for al Qaeda. He's not in the inner circle of the leadership by any means. I think he is a midlevel functionary, if you can call it that. But he has made previous statements. This is a new one. It sounds authentic, and certainly the threat of future attacks is likely. The question, whether al Qaeda was involved in the Mombasa attack still remains open. We don't now. I personally happen to think it is quite likely.

LIN: Quite likely. But why the claim of responsibility so late, then?

MARGOLIS: Well, this is a very good question. The only reason I can think of for the long lag time between the attack and the announcement is that al Qaeda's communications are being done by courier now.

Nothing electronic. So it may take couriers quite a bit of time to travel back and forth with messages between the leadership. Nevertheless, it is odd, because al Qaeda has not typically taken credit for its most extreme attacks. And we have to bear in mind too, that the recent message purportedly issued by Osama bin Laden in which he lists countries that are going to be on al Qaeda's attack list.

When I was on air on CNN recently, I said I thought this might be a fake, and the leading Swiss voice analysis institute in the world claims that it is a fake, even though the U.S. authorities said it was genuine. We must bear in mind that other nations -- or other parties may be spreading disinformation here.

LIN: All right. Let's say, for the purposes of trying to assess future terror attacks, that this is credible and this is a message from al Qaeda. Do you find anything interesting about the working of it in terms of the next targets and where they might be?

MARGOLIS: The fact that al Qaeda, if it is, attacked an Israeli target is in itself very interesting, because it is the first time, and the organization has avoided going after Israeli targets. The Israelis now are -- have jumped on this issue, and they say that al Qaeda is now linked with Palestinian groups and with Hezbollah, which has denied energetically by both groups. But it is clear that al Qaeda now is ratcheting up the pressure in trying to keep its momentum alive at a time when it is under serious attack around the world.

LIN: So how seriously should the United States take this threat then?

MARGOLIS: We should take it seriously, but without panic. There will certainly be al Qaeda attacks, but look, al Qaeda in my view, as I have been saying on CNN for long time, is only about, I think, a few hundreds of men. But it works in cooperation with scores of other anti-American groups, from Morocco to Indonesia. And this is the concern, that as the U.S. gets more engaged militarily in the Mid East, and as it gets closer to attacking Iraq, that more people who are angry at the United States, or hate the United States, are going to start taking action who are not necessarily linked to al Qaeda. And what substantiates this are the number of small sort of amateurish attacks that have been going on over the last few months.

LIN: Such as? I mean, when I look at the Kenya attack, it looks pretty devastating. Bali, obviously horrific.

MARGOLIS: That is correct. But the attacks on American troops, for example, in Kuwait, attacks in Pakistan where you have had pot- shots taken, attacks on schools. These type of things. The synagogue bombing in Tunisia. These are not hallmarks of the al Qaeda attacks. And even the Mombasa attack was fortunately abortive in a sense that its main target got away. It was not very successful.

LIN: Oh, in terms of firing at the aircraft itself.

MARGOLIS: Downing an airliner and killing a lot of Israeli civilians. But fortunately it failed.

LIN: All right, Eric Margolis. It is a sad world indeed, when we try to balance the horrors and make it relative. You know, what is a better attack than another, in terms of outcome. Thank you.

MARGOLIS: It certainly is.

LIN: Yes. Thank you very much. Eric Margolis.

MARGOLIS: You are very welcome.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired December 8, 2002 - 18:33   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: A new statement attributed to an al Qaeda spokesman says the terrorist group was behind the recent attacks in Kenya, and worse. More attacks may be coming. The al-Jazeera network broadcasted the message purported to be from one of Osama bin Laden's right hand men, Sulaiman Abu Ghaith. CNN has not been able to confirm that yet, but author and terrorism expert Eric Margolis is here with us. He is an authority on al Qaeda, and he joins us from Toronto. Good to see you, Eric. Thanks for being here.
ERIC MARGOLIS, TERRORISM EXPERT: Good evening.

LIN: All right, what do you make of this statement? I am not sure if you have actually had a chance to see it, but Sulaiman Abu Ghaith. What do you know about him?

MARGOLIS: I have seen it. He has emerged over the last few months as a purported spokesman for al Qaeda. He's not in the inner circle of the leadership by any means. I think he is a midlevel functionary, if you can call it that. But he has made previous statements. This is a new one. It sounds authentic, and certainly the threat of future attacks is likely. The question, whether al Qaeda was involved in the Mombasa attack still remains open. We don't now. I personally happen to think it is quite likely.

LIN: Quite likely. But why the claim of responsibility so late, then?

MARGOLIS: Well, this is a very good question. The only reason I can think of for the long lag time between the attack and the announcement is that al Qaeda's communications are being done by courier now.

Nothing electronic. So it may take couriers quite a bit of time to travel back and forth with messages between the leadership. Nevertheless, it is odd, because al Qaeda has not typically taken credit for its most extreme attacks. And we have to bear in mind too, that the recent message purportedly issued by Osama bin Laden in which he lists countries that are going to be on al Qaeda's attack list.

When I was on air on CNN recently, I said I thought this might be a fake, and the leading Swiss voice analysis institute in the world claims that it is a fake, even though the U.S. authorities said it was genuine. We must bear in mind that other nations -- or other parties may be spreading disinformation here.

LIN: All right. Let's say, for the purposes of trying to assess future terror attacks, that this is credible and this is a message from al Qaeda. Do you find anything interesting about the working of it in terms of the next targets and where they might be?

MARGOLIS: The fact that al Qaeda, if it is, attacked an Israeli target is in itself very interesting, because it is the first time, and the organization has avoided going after Israeli targets. The Israelis now are -- have jumped on this issue, and they say that al Qaeda is now linked with Palestinian groups and with Hezbollah, which has denied energetically by both groups. But it is clear that al Qaeda now is ratcheting up the pressure in trying to keep its momentum alive at a time when it is under serious attack around the world.

LIN: So how seriously should the United States take this threat then?

MARGOLIS: We should take it seriously, but without panic. There will certainly be al Qaeda attacks, but look, al Qaeda in my view, as I have been saying on CNN for long time, is only about, I think, a few hundreds of men. But it works in cooperation with scores of other anti-American groups, from Morocco to Indonesia. And this is the concern, that as the U.S. gets more engaged militarily in the Mid East, and as it gets closer to attacking Iraq, that more people who are angry at the United States, or hate the United States, are going to start taking action who are not necessarily linked to al Qaeda. And what substantiates this are the number of small sort of amateurish attacks that have been going on over the last few months.

LIN: Such as? I mean, when I look at the Kenya attack, it looks pretty devastating. Bali, obviously horrific.

MARGOLIS: That is correct. But the attacks on American troops, for example, in Kuwait, attacks in Pakistan where you have had pot- shots taken, attacks on schools. These type of things. The synagogue bombing in Tunisia. These are not hallmarks of the al Qaeda attacks. And even the Mombasa attack was fortunately abortive in a sense that its main target got away. It was not very successful.

LIN: Oh, in terms of firing at the aircraft itself.

MARGOLIS: Downing an airliner and killing a lot of Israeli civilians. But fortunately it failed.

LIN: All right, Eric Margolis. It is a sad world indeed, when we try to balance the horrors and make it relative. You know, what is a better attack than another, in terms of outcome. Thank you.

MARGOLIS: It certainly is.

LIN: Yes. Thank you very much. Eric Margolis.

MARGOLIS: You are very welcome.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com