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CNN Live Sunday

Lieberman Expected to Make Presidential Bid Official Monday

Aired January 12, 2003 - 15:12   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: The field of Democratic presidential contenders is about to get a bit more crowded. Sources tell CNN Connecticut's Joseph Lieberman will make his bid for the White House official tomorrow morning. The senator is expected to make that announcement at 10:00 Eastern, with his old high school serving as the backdrop. Of course, CNN will be carrying that live for you.
Right now, let's further examine a Lieberman run. And political analyst Ron Brownstein is in San Francisco. Good to see you.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Fredricka, how are you?

WHITFIELD: I'm doing good. All right, so Lieberman said he would be in if Al Gore is out. Al Gore says he's out, so Lieberman is in, of course. No surprise here.

BROWNSTEIN: Not really. I mean, really, he's been very consistent since the 2000 campaign. He said he would not run against Al Gore out of loyalty to him, for picking Senator Lieberman for the 2000 ticket.

And despite a lot of pressure from some of his supporters, he held to that line all the way through. But once Gore removed himself from contention a few weeks ago, the path was clear for Lieberman to run, and now everybody expects that tomorrow he will tell us he is in fact tell running.

WHITFIELD: It looks as if he's entering a crowded race. Already, officially, we know some of the people who have thrown their hat into the ring.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, we've got a six-pack with Lieberman, and we have a few more sort of lingering around the edge. You have Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, Dick Gephardt, the outgoing House Minority Leader for the Democrats. Howard Dean, the governor of Vermont, Al Sharpton, the civil rights activist from New York. Still out there are Gary Hart, the former senator who ran in 1984 and briefly in 1988. He's still considering a race. And Senator Bob Graham of Florida is considering the race. They may be able to hold the Iowa caucus inside the Senate caucus the way this is going with so many Democrats from the Senate looking at this.

But you could have a crowded field. The problem will be, there probably is not enough money to sustain that many candidates all the way to the actual voting a year from now.

WHITFIELD: Now name recognition always counts for something, but all of these people we mentioned certainly have that, name recognition. Let's talk about some of the other strengths that Senator Lieberman has.

BROWNSTEIN: With Senator Lieberman, he does -- name recognition would be one of his strengths, because he is the best known of them nationally, having run with Al Gore. As a result, he leads in most of the early national polls. And that could help him reinforce what is really a second advantage, which is his fund-raising ability. He has a good network that he helped developed around the country for Gore.

Obviously the Jewish community in different cities is going to be very supportive of him. And the fact that he's ahead in the polls should make it even easier to raise money. The third thing he probably has going for him is that he is credible on national security. He's in fact probably the most hawkish Democrat on national security issues to run for president since the late "Scoop" Jackson -- Henry Jackson in 1976.

That strength could also be a weakness, because on a variety of issues, but particularly possible war with Iraq, and other national security issues, Lieberman is probably to the right of the average democratic primary voter. He may have a challenge much like John McCain in the Republican primary in 2000. He has to expand the electorate, bring in independents and others who don't normally vote in a Democratic primary, particularly in New Hampshire.

WHITFIELD: In fact, those are the weaknesses we just showed up on our screen, talking about how he's got to expand the vote. And how do you suppose he would do that, given the fact that people feel pretty comfortable with knowing where he stands on what issues?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. This really is the challenge for candidates like Lieberman or McCain who are at the center, in parties that are increasingly ideological in the way they vote in the primaries.

Well, New Hampshire allows independents to vote, and of course New Hampshire is the first primary, and it becomes an enormous springboard. And really, what you've got to do is go out and convince people, or independents, that they - you can represent their voice and that they need to vote in your primary, to sort of moderate the influence of more ideological voters. That is what you got to go out and do. And I think Lieberman is going to have an agenda that would be very attractive to independents, could be very attractive in a general election candidates. The problem for those kind of candidates always is getting through the primaries itself, which tend to be more the providence of true believers.

WHITFIELD: And another important primary state, that would be Iowa. How is he likely to fair there?

BROWNSTEIN: Iowa is a very tough, I think, for a candidate -- or Lieberman. It really is much more of an organizational state where you have more of a traditional democratic vote. Independent -- the caucus, first of all, not a primary, so smaller participation. Institutional support matters a great deal. Organized labor, which is cool to Lieberman largely because of the support for free trade, is not really supportive.

And also, it is a very dovish state. The Democratic caucus in Iowa tends to be very skeptical of military engagement. In 1980s, George McGovern, 12 years after his loss, ran well there on an opposition to Ronald Reagan's arms buildup. It could be a tough terrain for Lieberman. You could almost look at New Hampshire and a potential Lieberman candidacy as do or die. He will have to emerge there, I think, because it's unlikely he will do particularly well in Iowa.

WHITFIELD: All right, Ron Brownstein, thanks much for your insight. Always good to see you.

BROWNSTEIN: All right. Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




Monday>


Aired January 12, 2003 - 15:12   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: The field of Democratic presidential contenders is about to get a bit more crowded. Sources tell CNN Connecticut's Joseph Lieberman will make his bid for the White House official tomorrow morning. The senator is expected to make that announcement at 10:00 Eastern, with his old high school serving as the backdrop. Of course, CNN will be carrying that live for you.
Right now, let's further examine a Lieberman run. And political analyst Ron Brownstein is in San Francisco. Good to see you.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Fredricka, how are you?

WHITFIELD: I'm doing good. All right, so Lieberman said he would be in if Al Gore is out. Al Gore says he's out, so Lieberman is in, of course. No surprise here.

BROWNSTEIN: Not really. I mean, really, he's been very consistent since the 2000 campaign. He said he would not run against Al Gore out of loyalty to him, for picking Senator Lieberman for the 2000 ticket.

And despite a lot of pressure from some of his supporters, he held to that line all the way through. But once Gore removed himself from contention a few weeks ago, the path was clear for Lieberman to run, and now everybody expects that tomorrow he will tell us he is in fact tell running.

WHITFIELD: It looks as if he's entering a crowded race. Already, officially, we know some of the people who have thrown their hat into the ring.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, we've got a six-pack with Lieberman, and we have a few more sort of lingering around the edge. You have Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, Dick Gephardt, the outgoing House Minority Leader for the Democrats. Howard Dean, the governor of Vermont, Al Sharpton, the civil rights activist from New York. Still out there are Gary Hart, the former senator who ran in 1984 and briefly in 1988. He's still considering a race. And Senator Bob Graham of Florida is considering the race. They may be able to hold the Iowa caucus inside the Senate caucus the way this is going with so many Democrats from the Senate looking at this.

But you could have a crowded field. The problem will be, there probably is not enough money to sustain that many candidates all the way to the actual voting a year from now.

WHITFIELD: Now name recognition always counts for something, but all of these people we mentioned certainly have that, name recognition. Let's talk about some of the other strengths that Senator Lieberman has.

BROWNSTEIN: With Senator Lieberman, he does -- name recognition would be one of his strengths, because he is the best known of them nationally, having run with Al Gore. As a result, he leads in most of the early national polls. And that could help him reinforce what is really a second advantage, which is his fund-raising ability. He has a good network that he helped developed around the country for Gore.

Obviously the Jewish community in different cities is going to be very supportive of him. And the fact that he's ahead in the polls should make it even easier to raise money. The third thing he probably has going for him is that he is credible on national security. He's in fact probably the most hawkish Democrat on national security issues to run for president since the late "Scoop" Jackson -- Henry Jackson in 1976.

That strength could also be a weakness, because on a variety of issues, but particularly possible war with Iraq, and other national security issues, Lieberman is probably to the right of the average democratic primary voter. He may have a challenge much like John McCain in the Republican primary in 2000. He has to expand the electorate, bring in independents and others who don't normally vote in a Democratic primary, particularly in New Hampshire.

WHITFIELD: In fact, those are the weaknesses we just showed up on our screen, talking about how he's got to expand the vote. And how do you suppose he would do that, given the fact that people feel pretty comfortable with knowing where he stands on what issues?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. This really is the challenge for candidates like Lieberman or McCain who are at the center, in parties that are increasingly ideological in the way they vote in the primaries.

Well, New Hampshire allows independents to vote, and of course New Hampshire is the first primary, and it becomes an enormous springboard. And really, what you've got to do is go out and convince people, or independents, that they - you can represent their voice and that they need to vote in your primary, to sort of moderate the influence of more ideological voters. That is what you got to go out and do. And I think Lieberman is going to have an agenda that would be very attractive to independents, could be very attractive in a general election candidates. The problem for those kind of candidates always is getting through the primaries itself, which tend to be more the providence of true believers.

WHITFIELD: And another important primary state, that would be Iowa. How is he likely to fair there?

BROWNSTEIN: Iowa is a very tough, I think, for a candidate -- or Lieberman. It really is much more of an organizational state where you have more of a traditional democratic vote. Independent -- the caucus, first of all, not a primary, so smaller participation. Institutional support matters a great deal. Organized labor, which is cool to Lieberman largely because of the support for free trade, is not really supportive.

And also, it is a very dovish state. The Democratic caucus in Iowa tends to be very skeptical of military engagement. In 1980s, George McGovern, 12 years after his loss, ran well there on an opposition to Ronald Reagan's arms buildup. It could be a tough terrain for Lieberman. You could almost look at New Hampshire and a potential Lieberman candidacy as do or die. He will have to emerge there, I think, because it's unlikely he will do particularly well in Iowa.

WHITFIELD: All right, Ron Brownstein, thanks much for your insight. Always good to see you.

BROWNSTEIN: All right. Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




Monday>