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CNN Live Sunday

Interview With Jon Wolfsthal

Aired February 09, 2003 - 17:44   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: With North Korea and Iraq on the brink of international conflict, is the United States on the right track?
Well, John Wolfsthal is an associate at the Carnegie Nonproliferation Project. He researches all aspects of nuclear arms control and security.

Thank you for joining us today, John.

JON WOLFSTHAL, CARNEGIE NONPROLIFERATION PROJECT: My pleasure, Carol.

LIN: Also, at the time that you were at the Department of Energy, you worked on stopping the spread of nuclear weapons, in particular, you worked on the issue of North Korea.

So when you take a look at President Clinton and President Bush and where we are today, how did they handle the crisis so differently? Clinton faced the same problem back in 1994.

WOLFSTHAL: It is an international case of deja vu. We're at exactly the same point we found ourselves in June of 1994, and both presidents are now having to face the ultimate question, which is, what do you do to stop a bankrupt, failing country like North Korea from not only going nuclear and having weapons itself but being able to sell nuclear weapons to countries like Iran and Syria or Libya?

The Clinton Administration decided that engagement in negotiation was a way to freeze the problem in the hopes that over the long-term, you could change the regime by engaging with it and opening it up to the outside world.

The Bush Administration has basically rejected that approach and said that not only will it not reward North Korea for coming into compliance with its nonproliferation obligations, but they think this whole idea of engagement and negotiating and trying to change the regime is nonsense, that they want to isolate North Korea, that they are literally going to stand by and watch as this country go nuclear and then if they do something really provocative, well, then, we have military action at our disposal.

LIN: So how do you -- How do you figure the Bush Administration's differing policies with North Korea versus with Iraq?

WOLFSTHAL: Well, it's interesting. I mean people are sort of beginning to guess that perhaps it's not really whether President Bush is competent or incompetent, but he does seem to have a lot of bad luck. And a lot of things went Clinton's way, both in the economy and internationally. And things seem to be working against President Bush.

And he's learned the lesson that a lot of presidents do, which is despite your strategy, international developments can undermine your goals. And in North Korea, I think that's exactly what we're seeing.

The problem is that there is a tendency within the Bush Administration to see things as very black and white, very one-sided, and to, because of what happened September 11, to view our policy as one of only dealing with threats, as opposed to seizing opportunities.

And I think that's unfortunate, because President Bush has shown his ability to seize opportunities in places like Russia, where he's tried to engage President Putin in a new relationship. We have better relations with China now than we've had in a decade.

But unfortunately, when it comes to countries like Iran, Iraq and North Korea, the famous axis of evil, this sort of streak of morality comes out of the administration and quickly paints them into a conservative corner.

LIN: But Jon, you're faulting him for that, but the American public supports the president of the United States on both issues. His poll numbers have declined somewhat, but still a majority do agree with the president's policies and in particular, his poll numbers have gone up since his explanation during his State of the Union address.

WOLFSTHAL: That's true, and I think in times of crisis, people will support the president. The vast majority of Americans are very patriotic and recognize that we are in a very dangerous time.

But I think if you look inside the poll numbers, if you ask people, do you support the president, he gets 65, 70 percent, I forget what the number is. But then if you ask, well, do you think we should be talking and negotiating with North Korea, as opposed to isolating, most people favor engagement.

And I think it's also you need to be careful about when you listen to the Bush Administration speak. Colin Powell has said very clearly, we are going to talk with North Korea. That is our policy.

But if you ask them what are they going to say, their policy is we're going to go and tell North Korea how they can come back into compliance with their nonproliferation obligations. But we're not going to give them anything to do it, we're not going to reward them and we're not going to negotiate. We're simply going to tell them.

And that's not what the American public, let alone what our allies, in South Korea and Japan, the people, really, that are looking down the barrel of a gun, are urging us to do.

LIN: Now you actually believe that if President Bush engages with North Korea, that he would actually have an easier time with Iraq. Explain that to me. WOLFSTHAL: Well, right now, internationally, and I do a lot of traveling overseas, there's a sense that the Bush Administration, when there's a crisis, they simply go for the gun, they shoot from the hip. And that's sort of Bush's, you know, unfortunately, this caricature of him being an overly armed cowboy is permeating a lot of our allies.

But if the president shows that on North Korea he's prepared to engage, he's prepared to negotiate and he's not simply using a sort of one size fits all approach, then I think he gets more credibility in the case of Iraq.

Because I think that the Clinton Administration -- sorry, the Bush Administration approach on this, in structure, is correct. We've tried negotiation with Saddam Hussein for ten years and it hasn't worked.

In North Korea, we've never really tried negotiations. We've never really gone all the way in trying to engage that country and see what it will take to eliminate their nuclear missile programs.

And I think if President Bush does that in North Korea, he'll gain more credibility with his allies in saying, look, I can differentiate between a crisis that can be resolved peacefully and one that can't. And you should follow my lead.

LIN: Jon Wolfsthal, I wish we had more time. Of course, in a deep subject like this, every answer raises many more questions. But I thank you for your time.

WOLFSTHAL: My pleasure.

LIN: Jon Wolfsthal.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired February 9, 2003 - 17:44   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: With North Korea and Iraq on the brink of international conflict, is the United States on the right track?
Well, John Wolfsthal is an associate at the Carnegie Nonproliferation Project. He researches all aspects of nuclear arms control and security.

Thank you for joining us today, John.

JON WOLFSTHAL, CARNEGIE NONPROLIFERATION PROJECT: My pleasure, Carol.

LIN: Also, at the time that you were at the Department of Energy, you worked on stopping the spread of nuclear weapons, in particular, you worked on the issue of North Korea.

So when you take a look at President Clinton and President Bush and where we are today, how did they handle the crisis so differently? Clinton faced the same problem back in 1994.

WOLFSTHAL: It is an international case of deja vu. We're at exactly the same point we found ourselves in June of 1994, and both presidents are now having to face the ultimate question, which is, what do you do to stop a bankrupt, failing country like North Korea from not only going nuclear and having weapons itself but being able to sell nuclear weapons to countries like Iran and Syria or Libya?

The Clinton Administration decided that engagement in negotiation was a way to freeze the problem in the hopes that over the long-term, you could change the regime by engaging with it and opening it up to the outside world.

The Bush Administration has basically rejected that approach and said that not only will it not reward North Korea for coming into compliance with its nonproliferation obligations, but they think this whole idea of engagement and negotiating and trying to change the regime is nonsense, that they want to isolate North Korea, that they are literally going to stand by and watch as this country go nuclear and then if they do something really provocative, well, then, we have military action at our disposal.

LIN: So how do you -- How do you figure the Bush Administration's differing policies with North Korea versus with Iraq?

WOLFSTHAL: Well, it's interesting. I mean people are sort of beginning to guess that perhaps it's not really whether President Bush is competent or incompetent, but he does seem to have a lot of bad luck. And a lot of things went Clinton's way, both in the economy and internationally. And things seem to be working against President Bush.

And he's learned the lesson that a lot of presidents do, which is despite your strategy, international developments can undermine your goals. And in North Korea, I think that's exactly what we're seeing.

The problem is that there is a tendency within the Bush Administration to see things as very black and white, very one-sided, and to, because of what happened September 11, to view our policy as one of only dealing with threats, as opposed to seizing opportunities.

And I think that's unfortunate, because President Bush has shown his ability to seize opportunities in places like Russia, where he's tried to engage President Putin in a new relationship. We have better relations with China now than we've had in a decade.

But unfortunately, when it comes to countries like Iran, Iraq and North Korea, the famous axis of evil, this sort of streak of morality comes out of the administration and quickly paints them into a conservative corner.

LIN: But Jon, you're faulting him for that, but the American public supports the president of the United States on both issues. His poll numbers have declined somewhat, but still a majority do agree with the president's policies and in particular, his poll numbers have gone up since his explanation during his State of the Union address.

WOLFSTHAL: That's true, and I think in times of crisis, people will support the president. The vast majority of Americans are very patriotic and recognize that we are in a very dangerous time.

But I think if you look inside the poll numbers, if you ask people, do you support the president, he gets 65, 70 percent, I forget what the number is. But then if you ask, well, do you think we should be talking and negotiating with North Korea, as opposed to isolating, most people favor engagement.

And I think it's also you need to be careful about when you listen to the Bush Administration speak. Colin Powell has said very clearly, we are going to talk with North Korea. That is our policy.

But if you ask them what are they going to say, their policy is we're going to go and tell North Korea how they can come back into compliance with their nonproliferation obligations. But we're not going to give them anything to do it, we're not going to reward them and we're not going to negotiate. We're simply going to tell them.

And that's not what the American public, let alone what our allies, in South Korea and Japan, the people, really, that are looking down the barrel of a gun, are urging us to do.

LIN: Now you actually believe that if President Bush engages with North Korea, that he would actually have an easier time with Iraq. Explain that to me. WOLFSTHAL: Well, right now, internationally, and I do a lot of traveling overseas, there's a sense that the Bush Administration, when there's a crisis, they simply go for the gun, they shoot from the hip. And that's sort of Bush's, you know, unfortunately, this caricature of him being an overly armed cowboy is permeating a lot of our allies.

But if the president shows that on North Korea he's prepared to engage, he's prepared to negotiate and he's not simply using a sort of one size fits all approach, then I think he gets more credibility in the case of Iraq.

Because I think that the Clinton Administration -- sorry, the Bush Administration approach on this, in structure, is correct. We've tried negotiation with Saddam Hussein for ten years and it hasn't worked.

In North Korea, we've never really tried negotiations. We've never really gone all the way in trying to engage that country and see what it will take to eliminate their nuclear missile programs.

And I think if President Bush does that in North Korea, he'll gain more credibility with his allies in saying, look, I can differentiate between a crisis that can be resolved peacefully and one that can't. And you should follow my lead.

LIN: Jon Wolfsthal, I wish we had more time. Of course, in a deep subject like this, every answer raises many more questions. But I thank you for your time.

WOLFSTHAL: My pleasure.

LIN: Jon Wolfsthal.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com