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CNN Live Sunday

Iraq's Offer of Cooperation Gets Cold Shoulder From White House

Aired February 09, 2003 - 18:39   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: Let's get some expert analysis on Iraq's latest offer to cooperate with U.N. weapons inspectors, an offer that got a quick cold shoulder from President Bush.
CNN analyst Kenneth Pollack is director of the research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and senior fellow in foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution. He joins us now from Washington.

Ken, let me ask you this. It sounds like classic Saddam what we heard today.

KENNETH POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Exactly and this is exactly what we all predicted was that as we got closer, as the administration made clear that their patience was running thing, that Saddam would start to dole out concessions, and that's exactly what we're seeing.

The Iraqis are doling out concessions and pieces here and there to try to string this process out and we have to always remember that Saddam has said publicly exactly what his strategy is, which is to try to string out the entire inspections process.

He knows that the United States can not keep this massive troop buildup, headed toward 150,000 or 200,000 troops in the region. We can't keep that in place for more than a few months.

He knows that and he knows that all he has to do is get to the summer and he will be home free, and that is his plan and he is hoping that making his additional small concessions are going to convince countries like France, like Germany, like others, to come forward and say we want to give the inspections more time and derail the U.S. move to war.

SAVIDGE: I'm wondering whose hand is he playing into more, is it those that are on the fence about the prospect of war by seeing delay, or is he playing into the hands of President Bush when he would say well see I told you, he's just stalling, stalling, stalling?

POLLACK: Well, I certainly think that this is going to make it harder for the administration. There's no question that there are countries out there who want to avoid war at any price and they're going to certainly seize on this as an opportunity to maybe stave off the war, maybe find a way out.

That said I think the administration is going to have a very powerful counter argument and you've already started to see them start to develop it. The counter argument is that every inspector will tell you, and they're right and Hans Blix has said so publicly, that the inspectors can not disarm Iraq. Iraq must disarm itself and all the inspectors can really do is verify that.

So, the idea of giving the inspectors more time, the idea of putting more inspectors in is in some sense fundamentally nonsensical. The only issue out there is whether or not Saddam Hussein is truly going to have a change of heart and what they're going to be able to argue is that what Blix and Baradei have gotten from the Iraqis is a clear determination to try to stave off the attack but not a clear determination to actually disarm.

SAVIDGE: Do you think the Bush administration would bend a little bit on granting more time for some sort of last minute resolution if it exists?

POLLACK: I'm just not convinced of that. My sense of the administration is that they've made up their mind. The president seems to have decided a couple of weeks ago that he wants to go to war.

But there is this fundamental disconnect between the diplomatic track and the military track. Right now those two tracks are kind of badly out of sync and the administration might find itself being forced to give a little bit more time in some senses because militarily we're not yet ready to go to war and it probably will take at least two, maybe as much as four or six weeks before the troops are really in place and ready to go to war.

And so, in that period of time, you might see the administration being willing to make some slight concessions because they have to, because they can't go to war for several weeks.

SAVIDGE: Well, what do you make of this story coming out saying that Egypt, Syria, and Libya have gotten together and they're trying to cook up some sort of plan how they can convince Saddam Hussein? First of all, what could they say to convince him to cooperate and why them?

POLLACK: Well, first why them is I think the easier question. Egypt sees itself as the leader of the Arab world. Syria also sees itself as a leader of the Arab world. They see themselves as the guardian of Arab nationalism and Moamar Khadafi of Libya has always aspired to be a leader of the Arab world.

So, this is three countries who consider themselves to be very important leaders in the Arab world coming together to say let's find an Arab solution to this problem. In some ways it's very similar to what happened before the 1991 Gulf War where you had a number of Arab states saying we should find an Arab solution. It's an Arab problem and we Arabs should deal with it.

What they -- as for what they can come up with, I'm very skeptical. I think that the only thing that is going to stave the United States off from going to war is Iraq's total disarmament and I think that it's exceedingly unlikely that we're going to get that.

Saddam Hussein over the last 12 years, he's given up $180 billion in oil revenues. He's allowed his economy to atrophy. He's allowed his military to atrophy. He's given up basically everything to try to hold onto these weapons because, as best we can tell, he believes that they are intimately bound up with his own control over Iraq. So, it's hard to imagine what concessions the Egyptians, Syrians, and Libyans might convince him to make that would be good enough for the United States.

SAVIDGE: Yes, it certainly is. Ken Pollack, you know what, I don't think it's the last time we're going to talk. Thanks very much for joining us, always a pleasure to have.

POLLACK: Always good talking to you, Marty.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




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Aired February 9, 2003 - 18:39   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: Let's get some expert analysis on Iraq's latest offer to cooperate with U.N. weapons inspectors, an offer that got a quick cold shoulder from President Bush.
CNN analyst Kenneth Pollack is director of the research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and senior fellow in foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution. He joins us now from Washington.

Ken, let me ask you this. It sounds like classic Saddam what we heard today.

KENNETH POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Exactly and this is exactly what we all predicted was that as we got closer, as the administration made clear that their patience was running thing, that Saddam would start to dole out concessions, and that's exactly what we're seeing.

The Iraqis are doling out concessions and pieces here and there to try to string this process out and we have to always remember that Saddam has said publicly exactly what his strategy is, which is to try to string out the entire inspections process.

He knows that the United States can not keep this massive troop buildup, headed toward 150,000 or 200,000 troops in the region. We can't keep that in place for more than a few months.

He knows that and he knows that all he has to do is get to the summer and he will be home free, and that is his plan and he is hoping that making his additional small concessions are going to convince countries like France, like Germany, like others, to come forward and say we want to give the inspections more time and derail the U.S. move to war.

SAVIDGE: I'm wondering whose hand is he playing into more, is it those that are on the fence about the prospect of war by seeing delay, or is he playing into the hands of President Bush when he would say well see I told you, he's just stalling, stalling, stalling?

POLLACK: Well, I certainly think that this is going to make it harder for the administration. There's no question that there are countries out there who want to avoid war at any price and they're going to certainly seize on this as an opportunity to maybe stave off the war, maybe find a way out.

That said I think the administration is going to have a very powerful counter argument and you've already started to see them start to develop it. The counter argument is that every inspector will tell you, and they're right and Hans Blix has said so publicly, that the inspectors can not disarm Iraq. Iraq must disarm itself and all the inspectors can really do is verify that.

So, the idea of giving the inspectors more time, the idea of putting more inspectors in is in some sense fundamentally nonsensical. The only issue out there is whether or not Saddam Hussein is truly going to have a change of heart and what they're going to be able to argue is that what Blix and Baradei have gotten from the Iraqis is a clear determination to try to stave off the attack but not a clear determination to actually disarm.

SAVIDGE: Do you think the Bush administration would bend a little bit on granting more time for some sort of last minute resolution if it exists?

POLLACK: I'm just not convinced of that. My sense of the administration is that they've made up their mind. The president seems to have decided a couple of weeks ago that he wants to go to war.

But there is this fundamental disconnect between the diplomatic track and the military track. Right now those two tracks are kind of badly out of sync and the administration might find itself being forced to give a little bit more time in some senses because militarily we're not yet ready to go to war and it probably will take at least two, maybe as much as four or six weeks before the troops are really in place and ready to go to war.

And so, in that period of time, you might see the administration being willing to make some slight concessions because they have to, because they can't go to war for several weeks.

SAVIDGE: Well, what do you make of this story coming out saying that Egypt, Syria, and Libya have gotten together and they're trying to cook up some sort of plan how they can convince Saddam Hussein? First of all, what could they say to convince him to cooperate and why them?

POLLACK: Well, first why them is I think the easier question. Egypt sees itself as the leader of the Arab world. Syria also sees itself as a leader of the Arab world. They see themselves as the guardian of Arab nationalism and Moamar Khadafi of Libya has always aspired to be a leader of the Arab world.

So, this is three countries who consider themselves to be very important leaders in the Arab world coming together to say let's find an Arab solution to this problem. In some ways it's very similar to what happened before the 1991 Gulf War where you had a number of Arab states saying we should find an Arab solution. It's an Arab problem and we Arabs should deal with it.

What they -- as for what they can come up with, I'm very skeptical. I think that the only thing that is going to stave the United States off from going to war is Iraq's total disarmament and I think that it's exceedingly unlikely that we're going to get that.

Saddam Hussein over the last 12 years, he's given up $180 billion in oil revenues. He's allowed his economy to atrophy. He's allowed his military to atrophy. He's given up basically everything to try to hold onto these weapons because, as best we can tell, he believes that they are intimately bound up with his own control over Iraq. So, it's hard to imagine what concessions the Egyptians, Syrians, and Libyans might convince him to make that would be good enough for the United States.

SAVIDGE: Yes, it certainly is. Ken Pollack, you know what, I don't think it's the last time we're going to talk. Thanks very much for joining us, always a pleasure to have.

POLLACK: Always good talking to you, Marty.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




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