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CNN Live Sunday

Interview With Joseph Tragert

Aired March 09, 2003 - 15:15   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: It's not the trifecta the Bush administration needs. With tensions high over weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and North Korea, there's more evidence that Iran, the third player in the president's axis of evil is moving quickly on a facility to enrich uranium. That's a crucial step in creating a nuclear weapon. "TIME" magazine's Massimo Calabresi says it's a threatening situation.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MASSIMO CALABRESI, TIME MAGAZINE: This is a really unfortunate moment for the administration, right when they're locked in this struggle at the U.N. over authorization for an attack on Iraq. And, of course, Israel is very worried about this development. Iran doesn't recognize Israel's right to exist, and is a major sponsor of Hezbollah, which is very active against Israel.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WHITFIELD: Joining is now from Boston to talk about Iran's new threat is Joseph Tragert, he's the author of "The Complete Idiot's Guide to Understanding Iraq," and to be published in a couple of months, "The Complete Idiot's Guide to Understanding Iran." Good to see you, Joseph.

JOSEPH TRAGERT, AUTHOR, "COMPLETE IDIOT'S GUIDE TO UNDERSTANDING IRAN": Good to see you.

WHITFIELD: All right, well, how serious is this? I'm quoting now the "TIME" magazine article which says U.N. weapons inspectors have discovered that Iran's uranium enriched facility is extremely advanced and violates the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?

TRAGERT: It obviously is very serious, because...

WHITFIELD: Do you believe that?

TRAGERT: Oh, I do.

WHITFIELD: It is accurate?

TRAGERT: Yes, I think it is accurate. I think the challenge is that the U.S., I believe, felt the situation was not as far along. It obviously takes time to develop the fuel and to develop the weapons. This shows that the Iranians are a lot further along, therefore they need to be in a position to do something with these weapons a lot sooner than one had thought.

WHITFIELD: Iran seems to be in isolation. Who really is friends with Iran, and might they be able to intervene in any way?

TRAGERT: Really, the only country that can put a lot of direct pressure on the Iranians right now would probably be the Russians, who are the primary supplier of the technology that the Iranians are using. Other than that, this is a country that's fairly isolated in the world.

WHITFIELD: Well, that brings in yet another problem, with Russia of course already backing Iraq, and then certainly, the world leaders might be in doubt whether indeed this would be the kind of intervention that they're looking for.

TRAGERT: That's right. I mean, right now, one wonders what are the Iranians trying to get out of this situation? With North Korea, we suspect they're trying to get more from the U.S. right now because of the fact that the U.S. is preoccupied with Iraq. One suspects the Iranians are also positioning themselves for some kind of negotiation.

WHITFIELD: And what makes this even more difficult is talking about isolation, they're not considered really a member of the Arab or Muslim world. Instead, a Persian country, mostly Shia. And they really don't, I guess, or can't really rely on the Arab community to kind of come to their rescue, or offer any kind of assistance.

TRAGERT: That's right.

WHITFIELD: Or guidance.

TRAGERT: The Iranians are essentially alone, in this sense. They're not Arab and they're not Sunni; they're Persian and they're Shiite. And they see themselves now (UNINTELLIGIBLE) by, particularly if Iraq falls, by states that are not friendly to them, Turkey, Russia, if Iraq becomes a U.S. proxy, Afghanistan, which obviously the Taliban government has been removed, and Pakistan. So this country finds itself surrounded by potentially hostile neighbors with no real friends on its own side.

WHITFIELD: Could they be using or exploring nuclear energy as a means of energy strictly?

TRAGERT: I suppose it's safe to say that they could be, but this is one of the leading oil producers in the world and you would think for the money they would be spending to develop this nuclear technology, that same money could be spent to build, say, an oil burning electrical generating power plant and get far more bang for the buck, if you will, if that's what really they were trying to do, was to develop an energy source.

WHITFIELD: Do you see it as a rather strange coincidence now that Iran is back on radar, especially just a year now after President Bush labeling it, along with North Korea and Iraq, as part of the axis of evil? TRAGERT: It's interesting. I wouldn't have thought these three countries would have ever got together to act in concert. But by singling the three of them out, you almost force them to act in unison in their own way and in their own best interests.

WHITFIELD: So how concerned are you that perhaps the U.N. or the IAEA may have kind of lost touch with what's going on with Iran, given that they're much more focused right now, via world pressure, et cetera, on Iraq?

TRAGERT: That's an interesting thing, to say that we find now that they're a lot further along than we thought shows that the international bodies were not really keeping in touch with what was happening. It also raises the question, what does one do now that we know? What are the actual remedies that we have?

WHITFIELD: Joseph Tragert. Thanks very much. Always good to hear from you.

TRAGERT: Good to hear from you, too.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired March 9, 2003 - 15:15   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: It's not the trifecta the Bush administration needs. With tensions high over weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and North Korea, there's more evidence that Iran, the third player in the president's axis of evil is moving quickly on a facility to enrich uranium. That's a crucial step in creating a nuclear weapon. "TIME" magazine's Massimo Calabresi says it's a threatening situation.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MASSIMO CALABRESI, TIME MAGAZINE: This is a really unfortunate moment for the administration, right when they're locked in this struggle at the U.N. over authorization for an attack on Iraq. And, of course, Israel is very worried about this development. Iran doesn't recognize Israel's right to exist, and is a major sponsor of Hezbollah, which is very active against Israel.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WHITFIELD: Joining is now from Boston to talk about Iran's new threat is Joseph Tragert, he's the author of "The Complete Idiot's Guide to Understanding Iraq," and to be published in a couple of months, "The Complete Idiot's Guide to Understanding Iran." Good to see you, Joseph.

JOSEPH TRAGERT, AUTHOR, "COMPLETE IDIOT'S GUIDE TO UNDERSTANDING IRAN": Good to see you.

WHITFIELD: All right, well, how serious is this? I'm quoting now the "TIME" magazine article which says U.N. weapons inspectors have discovered that Iran's uranium enriched facility is extremely advanced and violates the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?

TRAGERT: It obviously is very serious, because...

WHITFIELD: Do you believe that?

TRAGERT: Oh, I do.

WHITFIELD: It is accurate?

TRAGERT: Yes, I think it is accurate. I think the challenge is that the U.S., I believe, felt the situation was not as far along. It obviously takes time to develop the fuel and to develop the weapons. This shows that the Iranians are a lot further along, therefore they need to be in a position to do something with these weapons a lot sooner than one had thought.

WHITFIELD: Iran seems to be in isolation. Who really is friends with Iran, and might they be able to intervene in any way?

TRAGERT: Really, the only country that can put a lot of direct pressure on the Iranians right now would probably be the Russians, who are the primary supplier of the technology that the Iranians are using. Other than that, this is a country that's fairly isolated in the world.

WHITFIELD: Well, that brings in yet another problem, with Russia of course already backing Iraq, and then certainly, the world leaders might be in doubt whether indeed this would be the kind of intervention that they're looking for.

TRAGERT: That's right. I mean, right now, one wonders what are the Iranians trying to get out of this situation? With North Korea, we suspect they're trying to get more from the U.S. right now because of the fact that the U.S. is preoccupied with Iraq. One suspects the Iranians are also positioning themselves for some kind of negotiation.

WHITFIELD: And what makes this even more difficult is talking about isolation, they're not considered really a member of the Arab or Muslim world. Instead, a Persian country, mostly Shia. And they really don't, I guess, or can't really rely on the Arab community to kind of come to their rescue, or offer any kind of assistance.

TRAGERT: That's right.

WHITFIELD: Or guidance.

TRAGERT: The Iranians are essentially alone, in this sense. They're not Arab and they're not Sunni; they're Persian and they're Shiite. And they see themselves now (UNINTELLIGIBLE) by, particularly if Iraq falls, by states that are not friendly to them, Turkey, Russia, if Iraq becomes a U.S. proxy, Afghanistan, which obviously the Taliban government has been removed, and Pakistan. So this country finds itself surrounded by potentially hostile neighbors with no real friends on its own side.

WHITFIELD: Could they be using or exploring nuclear energy as a means of energy strictly?

TRAGERT: I suppose it's safe to say that they could be, but this is one of the leading oil producers in the world and you would think for the money they would be spending to develop this nuclear technology, that same money could be spent to build, say, an oil burning electrical generating power plant and get far more bang for the buck, if you will, if that's what really they were trying to do, was to develop an energy source.

WHITFIELD: Do you see it as a rather strange coincidence now that Iran is back on radar, especially just a year now after President Bush labeling it, along with North Korea and Iraq, as part of the axis of evil? TRAGERT: It's interesting. I wouldn't have thought these three countries would have ever got together to act in concert. But by singling the three of them out, you almost force them to act in unison in their own way and in their own best interests.

WHITFIELD: So how concerned are you that perhaps the U.N. or the IAEA may have kind of lost touch with what's going on with Iran, given that they're much more focused right now, via world pressure, et cetera, on Iraq?

TRAGERT: That's an interesting thing, to say that we find now that they're a lot further along than we thought shows that the international bodies were not really keeping in touch with what was happening. It also raises the question, what does one do now that we know? What are the actual remedies that we have?

WHITFIELD: Joseph Tragert. Thanks very much. Always good to hear from you.

TRAGERT: Good to hear from you, too.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com