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CNN Live Sunday

Interview With Daniel Brumberg

Aired April 27, 2003 - 16:16   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: I want to talk more about that, aiding countries on their transition to democratic systems, and the difficult job of rebuilding in Iraq. I'm joined from Washington by Daniel Brumberg. He is with the Democracy and Rule of Law Project at a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Daniel, thanks for being with us. You know, you hear these pictures -- I mean you hear these words, you see these pictures from the new Iraq and you think it is certainly an uphill battle at the very least. Seems to me two major things. On the one hand, building an infrastructure for some sort of law, some sort of order, some sort of interim government and final government, but then there's also dealing with this rising anti-Americanism, dealing with the organized Shiite clerics. Let's talk first about that. Rumsfeld says we're not going to allow Iraq to become an Iran-style regime. How does the U.S. prevent that?

DANIEL BRUMBERG, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT: It's not going to be easy. The Shiite clerics who are organizing on the ground probably do represent a minority of Shiites, but precisely because they're a well- organized group with networks and linkages. They can impose their order and their authority on the towns and sections of Baghdad where Shiites are the majority. We are going to have to do our best to prevent that, to intervene even though it seems America is imposing its will by force in order to make sure these clerics do not impose their will by force.

Moreover, we will have to create an environment where representatives of the Shiite community who are not linked to a radical clerics, and represent a different sort of view have some way of speaking. That will be difficult in part because it's going to be done by the United States, a power which is still seen by many Shiites as an occupying force. But we have no choice but to create a context in which other Shiite voices can emerge. And they have to emerge from within. They cannot be Shiite voices imposed from without.

COOPER: I mean, how do you do that? Creating a context, it all sounds good. What does it actually mean?

BRUMBERG: Well, there are several things you can do. First of all, you can go to the professional associations and representatives of the professionals in the cities who tend to be secular Shiites, and encourage their political participation. You can also go to Shiite clerics, like Ayatollah Systoni (ph), who is right now isolated, but who represents a different vision of Shiism which doesn't agree with this politicized notion of a theocratic state, and encourage them to participate. It is going to be extremely difficult to do so, however.

COOPER: Yes. I mean, you have the Shiite cleric in the job who was brought in by the U.S. and supported at least initially by the U.S. He ends up being murdered by a mob.

BRUMBERG: That's right. The murder of Khoei was a disaster from the outset. It really put the modern Shiite clerics on the defensive, because they were identified with the United States. So we have a lot of work to do to prevent that kind of disaster from occurring again. And we have to buy time. The other thing we need to do is to realize, of course, we know it very well, that the United States with its enormous economic power will be in charge of reconstruction. There is a lot of Iraqi Shiites and Kurds who know very well that cooperation with America and with American forces and with various companies and institutions involved in reconstruction will be their ticket to a peaceful existence. So I think there is a certain amount of leverage that the United States does have.

COOPER: But you say don't rush to elections, because frankly if elections were held right now, the only organized force would be the Shiite clerics and they would get elected.

BRUMBERG: That's absolutely right. You don't want to rush to elections. Democracy is elections, but it means a lot more. What you want to do -- the other thing we need to do is create a process of bringing various leaders into a power-sharing formula through a set of discussions and meetings, one that happened this weekend in fact with -- whose message to all Iraqis, Sunni, Kurdish, Shiites, that everyone has a place, everyone a seat at the table of political power and no one will be excluded as a result of elections from participation. And in so doing, you create an environment, you create a context in which you include, but at the same time, contain the influence of more radical forces.

COOPER: Are you optimistic in general about the next year in Iraq?

BRUMBERG: I'm not optimistic, because it is clear that the radical forces thus far have succeeded, especially the Shiite radical clerics, in imposing a shadow government in various parts of the south and in Baghdad as well. It may just very well be too late to prevent this, although the United States is beginning to draw a line and it has no choice but to do so even though it's seen, once again, as imposing its will on the population in contradiction to the whole ethos of democracy.

COOPER: And Danny, what I don't get, I mean, "Washington Post" had this article basically indicating that officials in Washington were surprised by not only the organization of these clerics but that they would fill the vacuum of power. Doesn't seem surprising -- I mean, this is happened -- this happened in Egypt where though there is a secular government, the Muslim brotherhood has gained enormous power by filling vacuums that government doesn't fill.

BRUMBERG: Yes, it was surprising that it was surprising. I think that one of the problems with our policy is that the state department has largely been frozen out. The experts on the Middle East have been frozen out. You have in the Pentagon a group of policy makers who essentially agree on everything. There is a phenomenon called group-think. Everybody thinks the same and they reinforce their own views and as a result they were surprised. We need to diversify the process of policy making and bring in voices of people who know the region well and who can speak to issues that all of us who study in the Middle East for a long time were not surprised at all that the Shiite radicals moved in there. We fully expected precisely that to happen.

COOPER: All right, Daniel Brumberg, appreciate it. Carnegie Endowment. That was interesting. Thanks for coming in.

BRUMBERG: You're welcome.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired April 27, 2003 - 16:16   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: I want to talk more about that, aiding countries on their transition to democratic systems, and the difficult job of rebuilding in Iraq. I'm joined from Washington by Daniel Brumberg. He is with the Democracy and Rule of Law Project at a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Daniel, thanks for being with us. You know, you hear these pictures -- I mean you hear these words, you see these pictures from the new Iraq and you think it is certainly an uphill battle at the very least. Seems to me two major things. On the one hand, building an infrastructure for some sort of law, some sort of order, some sort of interim government and final government, but then there's also dealing with this rising anti-Americanism, dealing with the organized Shiite clerics. Let's talk first about that. Rumsfeld says we're not going to allow Iraq to become an Iran-style regime. How does the U.S. prevent that?

DANIEL BRUMBERG, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT: It's not going to be easy. The Shiite clerics who are organizing on the ground probably do represent a minority of Shiites, but precisely because they're a well- organized group with networks and linkages. They can impose their order and their authority on the towns and sections of Baghdad where Shiites are the majority. We are going to have to do our best to prevent that, to intervene even though it seems America is imposing its will by force in order to make sure these clerics do not impose their will by force.

Moreover, we will have to create an environment where representatives of the Shiite community who are not linked to a radical clerics, and represent a different sort of view have some way of speaking. That will be difficult in part because it's going to be done by the United States, a power which is still seen by many Shiites as an occupying force. But we have no choice but to create a context in which other Shiite voices can emerge. And they have to emerge from within. They cannot be Shiite voices imposed from without.

COOPER: I mean, how do you do that? Creating a context, it all sounds good. What does it actually mean?

BRUMBERG: Well, there are several things you can do. First of all, you can go to the professional associations and representatives of the professionals in the cities who tend to be secular Shiites, and encourage their political participation. You can also go to Shiite clerics, like Ayatollah Systoni (ph), who is right now isolated, but who represents a different vision of Shiism which doesn't agree with this politicized notion of a theocratic state, and encourage them to participate. It is going to be extremely difficult to do so, however.

COOPER: Yes. I mean, you have the Shiite cleric in the job who was brought in by the U.S. and supported at least initially by the U.S. He ends up being murdered by a mob.

BRUMBERG: That's right. The murder of Khoei was a disaster from the outset. It really put the modern Shiite clerics on the defensive, because they were identified with the United States. So we have a lot of work to do to prevent that kind of disaster from occurring again. And we have to buy time. The other thing we need to do is to realize, of course, we know it very well, that the United States with its enormous economic power will be in charge of reconstruction. There is a lot of Iraqi Shiites and Kurds who know very well that cooperation with America and with American forces and with various companies and institutions involved in reconstruction will be their ticket to a peaceful existence. So I think there is a certain amount of leverage that the United States does have.

COOPER: But you say don't rush to elections, because frankly if elections were held right now, the only organized force would be the Shiite clerics and they would get elected.

BRUMBERG: That's absolutely right. You don't want to rush to elections. Democracy is elections, but it means a lot more. What you want to do -- the other thing we need to do is create a process of bringing various leaders into a power-sharing formula through a set of discussions and meetings, one that happened this weekend in fact with -- whose message to all Iraqis, Sunni, Kurdish, Shiites, that everyone has a place, everyone a seat at the table of political power and no one will be excluded as a result of elections from participation. And in so doing, you create an environment, you create a context in which you include, but at the same time, contain the influence of more radical forces.

COOPER: Are you optimistic in general about the next year in Iraq?

BRUMBERG: I'm not optimistic, because it is clear that the radical forces thus far have succeeded, especially the Shiite radical clerics, in imposing a shadow government in various parts of the south and in Baghdad as well. It may just very well be too late to prevent this, although the United States is beginning to draw a line and it has no choice but to do so even though it's seen, once again, as imposing its will on the population in contradiction to the whole ethos of democracy.

COOPER: And Danny, what I don't get, I mean, "Washington Post" had this article basically indicating that officials in Washington were surprised by not only the organization of these clerics but that they would fill the vacuum of power. Doesn't seem surprising -- I mean, this is happened -- this happened in Egypt where though there is a secular government, the Muslim brotherhood has gained enormous power by filling vacuums that government doesn't fill.

BRUMBERG: Yes, it was surprising that it was surprising. I think that one of the problems with our policy is that the state department has largely been frozen out. The experts on the Middle East have been frozen out. You have in the Pentagon a group of policy makers who essentially agree on everything. There is a phenomenon called group-think. Everybody thinks the same and they reinforce their own views and as a result they were surprised. We need to diversify the process of policy making and bring in voices of people who know the region well and who can speak to issues that all of us who study in the Middle East for a long time were not surprised at all that the Shiite radicals moved in there. We fully expected precisely that to happen.

COOPER: All right, Daniel Brumberg, appreciate it. Carnegie Endowment. That was interesting. Thanks for coming in.

BRUMBERG: You're welcome.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com