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CNN Live Sunday

Interview With Jim Walsh

Aired May 25, 2003 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Fresh off its victory in Iraq, the Bush administration may be turning its sights on Iran. The State Department official says the U.S. is considering taking a hard-line approach toward that country's government. The whereabouts of al Qaeda terrorists are playing a big role in that possible move.
CNN Pentagon Correspondent Chris Plante reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRIS PLANTE, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Frustrated with what they say is Iran's continued support of terrorism and efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, U.S. officials tell CNN there is discussion within the Bush administration about possibly taking steps to destabilize the Islamic regime there.

U.S. intelligence intercepts collected before and after the May 12 terror attacks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, have convinced U.S. officials that Iran is providing safe haven to al Qaeda terrorists and that those terrorists may have been behind the deadly attacks which killed 34 and injured hundreds more.

DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: There's no question but that there have been and are today senior al Qaeda leaders in Iran, and they're busy.

PLANTE: Iran's ambassador to the United Nations insists they're not harboring al Qaeda.

JAVAD ZARIF, IRANIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE U.N.: We have had a number of al Qaeda people in custody, and we continue to keep them in detention, and we continue to interrogate them, and, once we have any information from them, we will pass them to friendly governments.

PLANTE: One senior defense official said that Rumsfeld feels that the aging conservative Iranian regime might be ready to crumble from within, perhaps with some help from the outside.

At least one senator thinks that the youthful, more moderate population of Iran might be ready to force change.

SEN. ORRIN HATCH (R), UTAH: There could be some very great internal upheavals and changes brought about by these people who are getting tired of that type of a strict, religious-oriented regime that basically flies in the face of what they believe.

PLANTE: But others were quick with words of caution.

SEN. JOE BIDEN (D), DELAWARE: We've got a lot of work left to do in Afghanistan, in Iraq, and I think before we go off half-cocked in destabilizing Iran, we should be a little -- spend some real time thinking about that.

PLANTE: The heads of the Senate Intelligence Committee hinted that mounting pressure may produce results.

SEN. PAT ROBERTS (R), INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE: I'm very hopeful that the very strong message sent to Iran will be received, and we'll see some progress.

SEN. JAY ROCKEFELLER (D), INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE: There could be some better news on Iran that will be coming out.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PLANTE: Now it's not exactly clear what Senator Rockefeller was referring to there. However, one senior defense official did suggest to me that it is possible that Iran may be willing to hand over to Saudi Arabia some members of al Qaeda currently residing in Iran -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: And, Chris, if that doesn't happen, of course, the first question on so many people's minds is does this mean the U.S. will be moving toward any potential military action against Iran.

PLANTE: Well, at this point, there's certainly no expectation of that from here. I've seen no indication that they're talking about military action of any kind.

In fact, they're talking about -- more along the lines of economic pressure, about perhaps trying to get embargoes in place against Iran, encouraging internal opposition, perhaps funding some sort of dissent, that sort of thing, but certainly not taking Iran on nose to nose in any military fashion -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. Chris Plante from the Pentagon.

Thank you.

Well, let's turn now to our guest for more discussion on this development. Jim Walsh is a political scientist and research fellow at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, and he joins us from Boston.

Always good to see you, Jim.

JIM WALSH, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: Nice to see you, Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. So these reports are indicating that the Bush administration sources believe that there's some connection between Iran and al Qaeda operatives and a connection between the latest bombings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Do you believe any of this? WALSH: Well, I think, when we talk about Iran, we have to be careful what we mean by that because Iran is a country in struggle with itself. Different pieces of the government are publicly following very different policies. So I think we ought to be cautious in saying, is it President Khatami, is it someone else that is involved with al Qaeda.

I think the other thing we've got to do is step back here. This relationship with Iran and the U.S. has run like a -- like spring -- this past spring in New England, hot, cold, hot, cold, mostly cold, and the U.S. has shifted policy repeatedly, so has Iran, and what was really happening here is a fight within the Bush administration over Iran policy, with the secretary of state on one hand and the secretary of defense on the other, and Iran policy is sort of caught in the middle between the two.

WHITFIELD: Well, then does this make you nervous, if this were a potential scare tactic that the Bush White House would be using against Iran?

WALSH: Well, I think it's ill-advised at best. Let's say that getting rid of the current government in Iran was a good idea. Let's say that everyone agreed on that. The worst way of going about it is announcing it and saying we're going to go in there and destabilize this country. After all, we already did that once back in the 1950s.

WHITFIELD: So then...

WALSH: We apologized for it later.

WHITFIELD: Are you...

WALSH: Go ahead, Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: Sorry. Then -- are you saying then some damage may have been done by this kind of report now going out and it being attributed to a number of Bush White House officials?

WALSH: Sure. I think it's very unhelpful. What does it do? It strengthens the hard-liners. Imagine that the table was reversed and we had people in Iran talking openly about destabilizing and replacing President Bush's administration. What would happen? We'd all rally around the flag.

So here we are -- we're saying -- we're talking openly about what would be an illegal action against another government. All that's going to do is undercut the reformers and strengthen the hard-liners. I don't see any good coming from this sort of loose talk.

WHITFIELD: You talk about another government. Then are you alluding to the fact that you're seeing a very similar pattern being taken in the U.S. approach to Iran as it did with Iraq?

WALSH: Well, you are starting to see now through the series of leaks people who were trying to build a case against Iran in some form or another, whether that's economic or military or whatever, and I don't think it's coincidence here that these leaks are coming out at the very time that Secretary of State Powell is trying to re-establish relationships with Iran. We had secret talks earlier to try to improve what has been a bad relationship.

The same thing happened in North Korea. The very week that Secretary Powell had talks with the North Koreans in Beijing, the Defense Department leaked a memo talking about regime change in North Korea.

So I think part of the battle is more than it just appears. It's not just about Iran. It's also about the fight between Defense and State, and, in Iran, it's about the fight between hard-liners and reformers.

WHITFIELD: And North Korea, Iran, Iraq all mentioned in Bush's axis of evil.

Jim Walsh, thanks very much. Always good to see you.

WALSH: Good to see you, Fredricka. Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired May 25, 2003 - 18:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Fresh off its victory in Iraq, the Bush administration may be turning its sights on Iran. The State Department official says the U.S. is considering taking a hard-line approach toward that country's government. The whereabouts of al Qaeda terrorists are playing a big role in that possible move.
CNN Pentagon Correspondent Chris Plante reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRIS PLANTE, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Frustrated with what they say is Iran's continued support of terrorism and efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, U.S. officials tell CNN there is discussion within the Bush administration about possibly taking steps to destabilize the Islamic regime there.

U.S. intelligence intercepts collected before and after the May 12 terror attacks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, have convinced U.S. officials that Iran is providing safe haven to al Qaeda terrorists and that those terrorists may have been behind the deadly attacks which killed 34 and injured hundreds more.

DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: There's no question but that there have been and are today senior al Qaeda leaders in Iran, and they're busy.

PLANTE: Iran's ambassador to the United Nations insists they're not harboring al Qaeda.

JAVAD ZARIF, IRANIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE U.N.: We have had a number of al Qaeda people in custody, and we continue to keep them in detention, and we continue to interrogate them, and, once we have any information from them, we will pass them to friendly governments.

PLANTE: One senior defense official said that Rumsfeld feels that the aging conservative Iranian regime might be ready to crumble from within, perhaps with some help from the outside.

At least one senator thinks that the youthful, more moderate population of Iran might be ready to force change.

SEN. ORRIN HATCH (R), UTAH: There could be some very great internal upheavals and changes brought about by these people who are getting tired of that type of a strict, religious-oriented regime that basically flies in the face of what they believe.

PLANTE: But others were quick with words of caution.

SEN. JOE BIDEN (D), DELAWARE: We've got a lot of work left to do in Afghanistan, in Iraq, and I think before we go off half-cocked in destabilizing Iran, we should be a little -- spend some real time thinking about that.

PLANTE: The heads of the Senate Intelligence Committee hinted that mounting pressure may produce results.

SEN. PAT ROBERTS (R), INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE: I'm very hopeful that the very strong message sent to Iran will be received, and we'll see some progress.

SEN. JAY ROCKEFELLER (D), INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE: There could be some better news on Iran that will be coming out.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PLANTE: Now it's not exactly clear what Senator Rockefeller was referring to there. However, one senior defense official did suggest to me that it is possible that Iran may be willing to hand over to Saudi Arabia some members of al Qaeda currently residing in Iran -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: And, Chris, if that doesn't happen, of course, the first question on so many people's minds is does this mean the U.S. will be moving toward any potential military action against Iran.

PLANTE: Well, at this point, there's certainly no expectation of that from here. I've seen no indication that they're talking about military action of any kind.

In fact, they're talking about -- more along the lines of economic pressure, about perhaps trying to get embargoes in place against Iran, encouraging internal opposition, perhaps funding some sort of dissent, that sort of thing, but certainly not taking Iran on nose to nose in any military fashion -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. Chris Plante from the Pentagon.

Thank you.

Well, let's turn now to our guest for more discussion on this development. Jim Walsh is a political scientist and research fellow at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, and he joins us from Boston.

Always good to see you, Jim.

JIM WALSH, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: Nice to see you, Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. So these reports are indicating that the Bush administration sources believe that there's some connection between Iran and al Qaeda operatives and a connection between the latest bombings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Do you believe any of this? WALSH: Well, I think, when we talk about Iran, we have to be careful what we mean by that because Iran is a country in struggle with itself. Different pieces of the government are publicly following very different policies. So I think we ought to be cautious in saying, is it President Khatami, is it someone else that is involved with al Qaeda.

I think the other thing we've got to do is step back here. This relationship with Iran and the U.S. has run like a -- like spring -- this past spring in New England, hot, cold, hot, cold, mostly cold, and the U.S. has shifted policy repeatedly, so has Iran, and what was really happening here is a fight within the Bush administration over Iran policy, with the secretary of state on one hand and the secretary of defense on the other, and Iran policy is sort of caught in the middle between the two.

WHITFIELD: Well, then does this make you nervous, if this were a potential scare tactic that the Bush White House would be using against Iran?

WALSH: Well, I think it's ill-advised at best. Let's say that getting rid of the current government in Iran was a good idea. Let's say that everyone agreed on that. The worst way of going about it is announcing it and saying we're going to go in there and destabilize this country. After all, we already did that once back in the 1950s.

WHITFIELD: So then...

WALSH: We apologized for it later.

WHITFIELD: Are you...

WALSH: Go ahead, Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: Sorry. Then -- are you saying then some damage may have been done by this kind of report now going out and it being attributed to a number of Bush White House officials?

WALSH: Sure. I think it's very unhelpful. What does it do? It strengthens the hard-liners. Imagine that the table was reversed and we had people in Iran talking openly about destabilizing and replacing President Bush's administration. What would happen? We'd all rally around the flag.

So here we are -- we're saying -- we're talking openly about what would be an illegal action against another government. All that's going to do is undercut the reformers and strengthen the hard-liners. I don't see any good coming from this sort of loose talk.

WHITFIELD: You talk about another government. Then are you alluding to the fact that you're seeing a very similar pattern being taken in the U.S. approach to Iran as it did with Iraq?

WALSH: Well, you are starting to see now through the series of leaks people who were trying to build a case against Iran in some form or another, whether that's economic or military or whatever, and I don't think it's coincidence here that these leaks are coming out at the very time that Secretary of State Powell is trying to re-establish relationships with Iran. We had secret talks earlier to try to improve what has been a bad relationship.

The same thing happened in North Korea. The very week that Secretary Powell had talks with the North Koreans in Beijing, the Defense Department leaked a memo talking about regime change in North Korea.

So I think part of the battle is more than it just appears. It's not just about Iran. It's also about the fight between Defense and State, and, in Iran, it's about the fight between hard-liners and reformers.

WHITFIELD: And North Korea, Iran, Iraq all mentioned in Bush's axis of evil.

Jim Walsh, thanks very much. Always good to see you.

WALSH: Good to see you, Fredricka. Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com