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CNN Live Sunday

Analysis With Jon Alterman

Aired June 29, 2003 - 16:31   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Today's developments in the Middle East give rise to hope that the Bush administration's roadmap to peace plan may be working its way out of a very dangerous detour. A wave of killings and reprisals followed President Bush's visit to the region earlier in the month.
Joining us now from Washington is Jon Alterman. He's the director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Good to see you, Jon.

JON ALTERMAN, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: It's good to see you again, Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right, at least three major Palestinian militant groups have joined in on this ceasefire, at least the promise of a ceasefire.

What do you make of this?

ALTERMAN: What I find most interesting is how many people are trying to get into the act of this cease-fire.

Marwan Barghouti, whom the Israelis have in prison, helped negotiate the cease-fire. Yasser Arafat, who everybody tried to make irrelevant, participated in getting this ceasefire. What I see is an amazing array of actors trying to get in and try to work their way into where things are going to go in the future with nobody being sure where that actually is going to be.

WHITFIELD: Well, should that at least be encouraging?

ALTERMAN: I think it's necessary but not sufficient.

You know, one of the things about this process is the Americans have a heck of a lot more faith than either Israelis or Palestinians that the other side is willing to make a deal. And I think what we have to do, the task right now, is to have some of that encouragement and some of that optimism become infectious to both the Israelis and the Palestinians. Both are really, really skeptical right now.

WHITFIELD: Well, there has been some skepticism that has been articulated by Israeli officials earlier today who said they're not really sure what the motivation is here. They're almost feeling -- their feeling is almost that perhaps this is an opportunity for many of these militant groups to rearm themselves.

ALTERMAN: That's exactly right. I think the Israelis see the possibility that the groups are going to take a breather and then fight again in the future.

On the other hand, I think some Israelis say we tried to take out one of the leaders of Hamas, and that led to this ceasefire idea, so maybe it's working. I think from the Palestinian side, some of the militants are say, Well, we attacked the Israelis, now they're interested in a ceasefire, now they're pulling out of Gaza, see if we take the violence to them, this might work. I think other people have another message for this. But certainly the radicals are taking the message that what they're doing is working.

WHITFIELD: Now, on the surface, while it seems like those who are participating in this ceasefire the announced ceasefire today, there is some cohesion among these militant groups.

On the other hand, there's a little bit of confusion when you've got Hamas and Islamic Jihad that are agreeing to a three-month ceasefire, and then you also have another group that's agreeing to a six-month ceasefire. So what is going on here?

ALTERMAN: Well, not only that, but you have sides unilaterally declaring a ceasefire that the Israelis say they're not going to observe, but the ceasefire is dependent on the Israelis meeting certain conditions and the Israelis say we don't have anything to do with the ceasefire.

As I said, what is most interesting to me about this is how everybody is trying to use action to get control of what the future's going to have. It seems to me that the number of actors and the number of different agendas is absolutely stunning, and something we really haven't seen that much before in Arab-Israeli peacemaking.

WHITFIELD: In fact, these Palestinian group leaders are saying, you know, all it will take is that the Israelis will do something, carry out a, -- quote-unquote -- act of aggression, and that ceasefire is all over.

ALTERMAN: And one of the most interesting things as well is the person you haven't seen playing so prominent a role in all of this is Mahmoud Abbas, the person the Americans had put so much hope into. Instead, we see all these fixers and all these parties from everywhere seeming to do all the action, and we see Mahmoud Abbas meeting Condoleezza Rice in his office, but not seeming to play the active role getting the ceasefire to move ahead. What this means for his political future is something we're going to have to watch very, very carefully.

WHITFIELD: Interestingly enough, the Palestinian officials are even saying that Condoleezza Rice extended an invitation to Mahmoud Abbas to come to the U.S.. However, the White House is still not confirming that. Which one would you rather believe? ALTERMAN: My guess is he'll be in the U.S. before too long. I think the Americans have been looking to show engagement, not only for the peace process itself but also because our Arab and European allies are saying we have to be more engaged. For a long time we didn't do it because we didn't want to have anything to do with Yasser Arafat. We do want to have something to do with Mahmoud Abbas, but we don't want to embrace him so much that we appear to be smothering him. We don't want him to be the American agent in the Palestinian community. I think probably enough time has passed that he can come to Washington and announce a partnership with the Americans. He's still going to have a problem selling that partnership to his own people.

WHITFIELD: Jon Alterman, thanks very much. Always good to see you.

ALTERMAN: Good to see you, Fredricka.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired June 29, 2003 - 16:31   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Today's developments in the Middle East give rise to hope that the Bush administration's roadmap to peace plan may be working its way out of a very dangerous detour. A wave of killings and reprisals followed President Bush's visit to the region earlier in the month.
Joining us now from Washington is Jon Alterman. He's the director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Good to see you, Jon.

JON ALTERMAN, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: It's good to see you again, Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right, at least three major Palestinian militant groups have joined in on this ceasefire, at least the promise of a ceasefire.

What do you make of this?

ALTERMAN: What I find most interesting is how many people are trying to get into the act of this cease-fire.

Marwan Barghouti, whom the Israelis have in prison, helped negotiate the cease-fire. Yasser Arafat, who everybody tried to make irrelevant, participated in getting this ceasefire. What I see is an amazing array of actors trying to get in and try to work their way into where things are going to go in the future with nobody being sure where that actually is going to be.

WHITFIELD: Well, should that at least be encouraging?

ALTERMAN: I think it's necessary but not sufficient.

You know, one of the things about this process is the Americans have a heck of a lot more faith than either Israelis or Palestinians that the other side is willing to make a deal. And I think what we have to do, the task right now, is to have some of that encouragement and some of that optimism become infectious to both the Israelis and the Palestinians. Both are really, really skeptical right now.

WHITFIELD: Well, there has been some skepticism that has been articulated by Israeli officials earlier today who said they're not really sure what the motivation is here. They're almost feeling -- their feeling is almost that perhaps this is an opportunity for many of these militant groups to rearm themselves.

ALTERMAN: That's exactly right. I think the Israelis see the possibility that the groups are going to take a breather and then fight again in the future.

On the other hand, I think some Israelis say we tried to take out one of the leaders of Hamas, and that led to this ceasefire idea, so maybe it's working. I think from the Palestinian side, some of the militants are say, Well, we attacked the Israelis, now they're interested in a ceasefire, now they're pulling out of Gaza, see if we take the violence to them, this might work. I think other people have another message for this. But certainly the radicals are taking the message that what they're doing is working.

WHITFIELD: Now, on the surface, while it seems like those who are participating in this ceasefire the announced ceasefire today, there is some cohesion among these militant groups.

On the other hand, there's a little bit of confusion when you've got Hamas and Islamic Jihad that are agreeing to a three-month ceasefire, and then you also have another group that's agreeing to a six-month ceasefire. So what is going on here?

ALTERMAN: Well, not only that, but you have sides unilaterally declaring a ceasefire that the Israelis say they're not going to observe, but the ceasefire is dependent on the Israelis meeting certain conditions and the Israelis say we don't have anything to do with the ceasefire.

As I said, what is most interesting to me about this is how everybody is trying to use action to get control of what the future's going to have. It seems to me that the number of actors and the number of different agendas is absolutely stunning, and something we really haven't seen that much before in Arab-Israeli peacemaking.

WHITFIELD: In fact, these Palestinian group leaders are saying, you know, all it will take is that the Israelis will do something, carry out a, -- quote-unquote -- act of aggression, and that ceasefire is all over.

ALTERMAN: And one of the most interesting things as well is the person you haven't seen playing so prominent a role in all of this is Mahmoud Abbas, the person the Americans had put so much hope into. Instead, we see all these fixers and all these parties from everywhere seeming to do all the action, and we see Mahmoud Abbas meeting Condoleezza Rice in his office, but not seeming to play the active role getting the ceasefire to move ahead. What this means for his political future is something we're going to have to watch very, very carefully.

WHITFIELD: Interestingly enough, the Palestinian officials are even saying that Condoleezza Rice extended an invitation to Mahmoud Abbas to come to the U.S.. However, the White House is still not confirming that. Which one would you rather believe? ALTERMAN: My guess is he'll be in the U.S. before too long. I think the Americans have been looking to show engagement, not only for the peace process itself but also because our Arab and European allies are saying we have to be more engaged. For a long time we didn't do it because we didn't want to have anything to do with Yasser Arafat. We do want to have something to do with Mahmoud Abbas, but we don't want to embrace him so much that we appear to be smothering him. We don't want him to be the American agent in the Palestinian community. I think probably enough time has passed that he can come to Washington and announce a partnership with the Americans. He's still going to have a problem selling that partnership to his own people.

WHITFIELD: Jon Alterman, thanks very much. Always good to see you.

ALTERMAN: Good to see you, Fredricka.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com