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CNN Live Sunday

Interview With Joseph Siegle

Aired July 06, 2003 - 15:59   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SEAN CALLEBS, CNN ANCHOR: We begin this hour with the possibility of U.S. forces going into a new trouble spot, the West African nation of Liberia. This afternoon, Liberia's president agreed to leave power and accept asylum in Nigeria, provided there is an orderly transition of power. U.S. peacekeepers may be vital to making that happen. CNN's Jeff Koinange is in Liberia's capital city of Monrovia and now joins us live with the very latest -- Jeff.
JEFF KOINANGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Sean, I can tell you that much-anticipated meeting between the two presidents lasted less than two hours. Then they emerged and addressed the media. And it was a defiant President Taylor who said there must be conditions. He did accept to leave, but he did say there must be certain conditions before his exit.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHARLES TAYLOR, PRESIDENT OF LIBERIA: He has extended an invitation. We have accepted an invitation. I think it's a matter now of making sure that it is done using our brains, that it is done properly, orderly, that no one feels disenfranchised and begins to act disorderly or disruptive in any way.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KOINANGE: And what he meant by disorderly and disruptive, Sean, is that he doesn't want to leave a power vacuum. He feels that there are too many guns in the hands of too many people and the militia would turn the guns on the innocent civilians. And again, President Obasanjo sending a parting shot at anyone who might think that Nigeria is a pushover for harboring an alleged suspected war crimes criminal, had this to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OLUSEGUN OBASANJO, PRESIDENT OF NIGERIA: The condition is that Nigeria and I will not be harassed ...

TAYLOR: Yes.

OBASANJO: ... by anybody ...

TAYLOR: Yes.

OBASANJO: ... for inviting President Taylor to Nigeria. Nigeria will not be harassed by anybody or by any organization or any country for showing this humanitarian gesture.

TAYLOR: Exactly.

OBASANJO: And a gesture that is necessary...

TAYLOR: Necessary.

OBASANJO: ... for us to solve the problem of this country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KOINANGE: And Sean, events are moving rapidly in terms of deployment. We understand the JVT, or the Joint Verification Team, is en route to Spain as we speak. They're going to join with the Fast Track Team, the 40 to 50 marines, Special Forces who go into trouble spots to secure embassies. They are expected to take off from Spain sometime in the next couple of hours. Will be arriving in West Africa sometime in the early morning and on to Monrovia after that, Sean.

CALLEBS: OK, Jeff. A great deal of activity in Liberia today. Let's talk about President Taylor's militia on one side, the rebel forces on the other side, indeed perhaps today's news may be most welcome to the citizens of Liberia, who have lived under horrible, violent conditions for years now.

KOINANGE: Absolutely, Sean. And those citizens, we see them every single day. More than 100,000 of them seeking water, seeking food, seeking shelter. What they want, most importantly, is for peacekeepers to come on the ground and secure the city, make it livable, make it peaceful, just so that aid workers can come in and start administering aid to people, bring in food, bring in water, bring in much-needed shelter. That's what's needed right now, because the people of Liberia have been suffering, not just for the last few months, Sean. We've got to remember, this conflict goes back more than a decade and a half, Sean.

CALLEBS: Well, Jeff, you've been providing great coverage, and one thing I think is important to point out. You said yesterday that even a small force that could be with the U.S. could go in there and make a big difference almost immediately.

KOINANGE: Absolutely. And it's all about psychology here, Sean. If the people on the ground see foreign forces, they will know right away that this is a force that's to contend with. They will not want to mess with them in any way. And that's what's most important.

What people want to see is the presences on the street as they go to the market, as they go to church, as they go to schools when that starts. They want to see a foreign force on the ground just to reassure them that no militia, no rebels will come overrunning the city. No one will hassle them, bother them in any way.

And that, hopefully, will start in the coming days. If this Joint Verification Team comes on the ground, followed with the Fast Track Team, once people see that things are taking shape, then you will see this place turn around sooner rather than later, Sean. CALLEBS: OK, Jeff. A very fluid situation. Thanks for keeping us updated. We will continue to follow this.

Meanwhile, even though the Bush administration is under international pressure to lead a peacekeeping force in Liberia, some key U.S. Senators are publicly urging the president to move cautiously. Senator John D. Rockefeller of West Virginia, the intelligence committee, says a final decision should wait for a report from a special U.S. advance team that's just how heading to the region. And Senate Armed Forces Committee chairman, John Warner, is worried that U.S. troops could easily find themselves in the middle of a shooting war between Liberian factions fighting to replace Charles Taylor's government.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN WARNER (R), VIRGINIA: What form of government can take hold and hold it so that the warring factions to the south and to the north, which are anti-Taylor factions, when they begin to send their forces in and then the remnants of the Taylor forces that are there all begin to fight, how do our people provide some security to the food and medicine distribution, what is the risk to them? Go back to the issue, is it vital in our national security interests? What are the details of that mission? And what's the exit strategy?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CALLEBS: A lot of very important questions. And would U.S. policymakers be getting in over their heads if they order troops to Liberia? Joining me now from Washington is Joseph Siegle of the Council on Foreign Relations. Thanks very much for joining us here on this Sunday afternoon.

JOSEPH SIEGLE, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: My pleasure.

CALLEBS: Let's first talk about President Charles Taylor. He has agreed to leave Liberia before, but this time people are very hopeful that there may be some substance behind this promise.

SIEGLE: Well, it is a positive step every time that he gives some further indication that he's going to leave, it does build up hopes that, indeed, we'll finally be able to bring this conflict to an end. However, I would just warn that Mr. Taylor is a very cunning and slippery character, and he is going to try to negotiate the very best outcome out of the situation that he can. And his track record shows that just because he says he's going to do something doesn't mean he's actually going to do it.

CALLEBS: And also, it may be in his best interest to try and stay there as long as possible. A number of countries, including people in the U.S., would like to see him tried for war crimes.

SIEGLE: Absolutely. Because of the indictment in the special war crimes court in Sierra Leone that came down on June 4th, Mr. Taylor really doesn't have very strong incentives to cooperate with international authorities in bringing a halt to the fighting in Liberia and to leave the country because he realizes that as soon as he's out of Liberia, the likelihood that he'll be arrested and brought to some sort of trial in Sierra Leone is quite high. Therefore, it really complicates the peace negotiations in Liberia. There's a risk that if he doesn't see any better option he'll go back to the bush in Liberia and resume his role as a guerrilla leader and conduct subversive activities on the ground there.

CALLEBS: How critical is it for the U.S. to have some kind of presence there? We heard Jeff say that just for the citizens of Liberia it would mean so much.

SIEGLE: It really does. The U.S. has very long historical ties to Liberia. Liberians look up to the United States as a big brother. It commands widespread respect among all Liberians regardless of faction that they may be supporting. And there's just a great deal of awe and respect for the power of the United States, militarily, economically, politically. And I think even a small contingent of American troops would carry great sway among the Liberian population. And we could very conceivably see a very smooth transition to a U.S.- led occupying force there in Liberia.

CALLEBS: But Somalia, the memories there still punish many people in the U.S. and the government, not necessarily in the Bush administration. But how leery do you think that leaders here in the U.S. are going to be to issue any kind of troops there, whether they be peacekeeping, humanitarian mission, anything?

SIEGLE: Well, certainly, Somalia is at the forefront of everybody's minds. But Liberia is not Somalia. The two countries couldn't be more different from each other. Within Africa there isn't a strong ethnic factional warlord sort of mentality in Liberia. There are these historical ties that I've mentioned. American troops would be widely accepted and celebrated upon arrival in Liberia.

And furthermore there's already a pretty strong nucleus of humanitarian organizations on the ground in Liberia. These groups could be easily augmented, and they could be stretched to cover the entire country within pretty short order if there's security. And I think you could see a much quicker transition than what we've seen in other places. And certainly in Somalia.

Furthermore, just to further distance the comparisons with Somalia, all these negotiations to get Taylor out really remove the key obstacle that there would be to bring in a peacekeeping contingent ...

CALLEBS: If it works.

SIEGLE: ... without putting U.S. troops at risk.

CALLEBS: Let's talk about President Bush's trip to Africa. How important is that at this point in time? And any chance it is going to be overshadowed by what's going on in Liberia?

SIEGLE: Well, anytime the president makes an international trip it's important, and that will command great international attention. And certainly, it will be appreciated by almost all African leaders. The crisis in Liberia will command a lot of attention, as the interviews senior administration officials have given this past week have shown. However, I don't think it will completely commandeer the agenda that the administration has set for the whole trip.

CALLEBS: Joseph Siegle with the Council on Foreign Relations, thanks very much for coming and talking with us on this Sunday afternoon. We appreciate it.

SIEGLE: It's my pleasure. Thank you very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired July 6, 2003 - 15:59   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SEAN CALLEBS, CNN ANCHOR: We begin this hour with the possibility of U.S. forces going into a new trouble spot, the West African nation of Liberia. This afternoon, Liberia's president agreed to leave power and accept asylum in Nigeria, provided there is an orderly transition of power. U.S. peacekeepers may be vital to making that happen. CNN's Jeff Koinange is in Liberia's capital city of Monrovia and now joins us live with the very latest -- Jeff.
JEFF KOINANGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Sean, I can tell you that much-anticipated meeting between the two presidents lasted less than two hours. Then they emerged and addressed the media. And it was a defiant President Taylor who said there must be conditions. He did accept to leave, but he did say there must be certain conditions before his exit.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHARLES TAYLOR, PRESIDENT OF LIBERIA: He has extended an invitation. We have accepted an invitation. I think it's a matter now of making sure that it is done using our brains, that it is done properly, orderly, that no one feels disenfranchised and begins to act disorderly or disruptive in any way.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KOINANGE: And what he meant by disorderly and disruptive, Sean, is that he doesn't want to leave a power vacuum. He feels that there are too many guns in the hands of too many people and the militia would turn the guns on the innocent civilians. And again, President Obasanjo sending a parting shot at anyone who might think that Nigeria is a pushover for harboring an alleged suspected war crimes criminal, had this to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OLUSEGUN OBASANJO, PRESIDENT OF NIGERIA: The condition is that Nigeria and I will not be harassed ...

TAYLOR: Yes.

OBASANJO: ... by anybody ...

TAYLOR: Yes.

OBASANJO: ... for inviting President Taylor to Nigeria. Nigeria will not be harassed by anybody or by any organization or any country for showing this humanitarian gesture.

TAYLOR: Exactly.

OBASANJO: And a gesture that is necessary...

TAYLOR: Necessary.

OBASANJO: ... for us to solve the problem of this country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KOINANGE: And Sean, events are moving rapidly in terms of deployment. We understand the JVT, or the Joint Verification Team, is en route to Spain as we speak. They're going to join with the Fast Track Team, the 40 to 50 marines, Special Forces who go into trouble spots to secure embassies. They are expected to take off from Spain sometime in the next couple of hours. Will be arriving in West Africa sometime in the early morning and on to Monrovia after that, Sean.

CALLEBS: OK, Jeff. A great deal of activity in Liberia today. Let's talk about President Taylor's militia on one side, the rebel forces on the other side, indeed perhaps today's news may be most welcome to the citizens of Liberia, who have lived under horrible, violent conditions for years now.

KOINANGE: Absolutely, Sean. And those citizens, we see them every single day. More than 100,000 of them seeking water, seeking food, seeking shelter. What they want, most importantly, is for peacekeepers to come on the ground and secure the city, make it livable, make it peaceful, just so that aid workers can come in and start administering aid to people, bring in food, bring in water, bring in much-needed shelter. That's what's needed right now, because the people of Liberia have been suffering, not just for the last few months, Sean. We've got to remember, this conflict goes back more than a decade and a half, Sean.

CALLEBS: Well, Jeff, you've been providing great coverage, and one thing I think is important to point out. You said yesterday that even a small force that could be with the U.S. could go in there and make a big difference almost immediately.

KOINANGE: Absolutely. And it's all about psychology here, Sean. If the people on the ground see foreign forces, they will know right away that this is a force that's to contend with. They will not want to mess with them in any way. And that's what's most important.

What people want to see is the presences on the street as they go to the market, as they go to church, as they go to schools when that starts. They want to see a foreign force on the ground just to reassure them that no militia, no rebels will come overrunning the city. No one will hassle them, bother them in any way.

And that, hopefully, will start in the coming days. If this Joint Verification Team comes on the ground, followed with the Fast Track Team, once people see that things are taking shape, then you will see this place turn around sooner rather than later, Sean. CALLEBS: OK, Jeff. A very fluid situation. Thanks for keeping us updated. We will continue to follow this.

Meanwhile, even though the Bush administration is under international pressure to lead a peacekeeping force in Liberia, some key U.S. Senators are publicly urging the president to move cautiously. Senator John D. Rockefeller of West Virginia, the intelligence committee, says a final decision should wait for a report from a special U.S. advance team that's just how heading to the region. And Senate Armed Forces Committee chairman, John Warner, is worried that U.S. troops could easily find themselves in the middle of a shooting war between Liberian factions fighting to replace Charles Taylor's government.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN WARNER (R), VIRGINIA: What form of government can take hold and hold it so that the warring factions to the south and to the north, which are anti-Taylor factions, when they begin to send their forces in and then the remnants of the Taylor forces that are there all begin to fight, how do our people provide some security to the food and medicine distribution, what is the risk to them? Go back to the issue, is it vital in our national security interests? What are the details of that mission? And what's the exit strategy?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CALLEBS: A lot of very important questions. And would U.S. policymakers be getting in over their heads if they order troops to Liberia? Joining me now from Washington is Joseph Siegle of the Council on Foreign Relations. Thanks very much for joining us here on this Sunday afternoon.

JOSEPH SIEGLE, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: My pleasure.

CALLEBS: Let's first talk about President Charles Taylor. He has agreed to leave Liberia before, but this time people are very hopeful that there may be some substance behind this promise.

SIEGLE: Well, it is a positive step every time that he gives some further indication that he's going to leave, it does build up hopes that, indeed, we'll finally be able to bring this conflict to an end. However, I would just warn that Mr. Taylor is a very cunning and slippery character, and he is going to try to negotiate the very best outcome out of the situation that he can. And his track record shows that just because he says he's going to do something doesn't mean he's actually going to do it.

CALLEBS: And also, it may be in his best interest to try and stay there as long as possible. A number of countries, including people in the U.S., would like to see him tried for war crimes.

SIEGLE: Absolutely. Because of the indictment in the special war crimes court in Sierra Leone that came down on June 4th, Mr. Taylor really doesn't have very strong incentives to cooperate with international authorities in bringing a halt to the fighting in Liberia and to leave the country because he realizes that as soon as he's out of Liberia, the likelihood that he'll be arrested and brought to some sort of trial in Sierra Leone is quite high. Therefore, it really complicates the peace negotiations in Liberia. There's a risk that if he doesn't see any better option he'll go back to the bush in Liberia and resume his role as a guerrilla leader and conduct subversive activities on the ground there.

CALLEBS: How critical is it for the U.S. to have some kind of presence there? We heard Jeff say that just for the citizens of Liberia it would mean so much.

SIEGLE: It really does. The U.S. has very long historical ties to Liberia. Liberians look up to the United States as a big brother. It commands widespread respect among all Liberians regardless of faction that they may be supporting. And there's just a great deal of awe and respect for the power of the United States, militarily, economically, politically. And I think even a small contingent of American troops would carry great sway among the Liberian population. And we could very conceivably see a very smooth transition to a U.S.- led occupying force there in Liberia.

CALLEBS: But Somalia, the memories there still punish many people in the U.S. and the government, not necessarily in the Bush administration. But how leery do you think that leaders here in the U.S. are going to be to issue any kind of troops there, whether they be peacekeeping, humanitarian mission, anything?

SIEGLE: Well, certainly, Somalia is at the forefront of everybody's minds. But Liberia is not Somalia. The two countries couldn't be more different from each other. Within Africa there isn't a strong ethnic factional warlord sort of mentality in Liberia. There are these historical ties that I've mentioned. American troops would be widely accepted and celebrated upon arrival in Liberia.

And furthermore there's already a pretty strong nucleus of humanitarian organizations on the ground in Liberia. These groups could be easily augmented, and they could be stretched to cover the entire country within pretty short order if there's security. And I think you could see a much quicker transition than what we've seen in other places. And certainly in Somalia.

Furthermore, just to further distance the comparisons with Somalia, all these negotiations to get Taylor out really remove the key obstacle that there would be to bring in a peacekeeping contingent ...

CALLEBS: If it works.

SIEGLE: ... without putting U.S. troops at risk.

CALLEBS: Let's talk about President Bush's trip to Africa. How important is that at this point in time? And any chance it is going to be overshadowed by what's going on in Liberia?

SIEGLE: Well, anytime the president makes an international trip it's important, and that will command great international attention. And certainly, it will be appreciated by almost all African leaders. The crisis in Liberia will command a lot of attention, as the interviews senior administration officials have given this past week have shown. However, I don't think it will completely commandeer the agenda that the administration has set for the whole trip.

CALLEBS: Joseph Siegle with the Council on Foreign Relations, thanks very much for coming and talking with us on this Sunday afternoon. We appreciate it.

SIEGLE: It's my pleasure. Thank you very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com