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CNN Live Sunday
Interview On the Success Of Intelligence On Hunt For Saddam
Aired July 27, 2003 - ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOPHIA CHOI, CNN ANCHOR: Well they could be just hours behind them. That's what U.S. military officials believe. Their search for Saddam Hussein is taking them to Tikrit and to Baghdad today. CNN's Nic Robertson joins us from the Iraqi Capital, Nic.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Sophia, the search for Saddam Hussein was going on in a residential neighborhood of Baghdad earlier this after noon. According to Iraqi police, they believe Saddam Hussein was in the neighborhood. According to eye witnesses, there were a large number of U.S. troops in the area. Some of them wearing what they described as black fatigues, having a lot of equipment on them.
According to Coalition officials, the elite task force 20. The group that's tasked with finding Saddam Hussein and other top Ba'ath party officials was involved in this particular operation. But according to eye witnesses on the scene there, a number of Iraqi bystanders who were driving their cars through the neighborhood at the time of this particular raid, got caught up. They were told -- the bystanders said the cars were told to slow down, and they were slowing down and they say the people in the vehicles were shot at.
We're told at least three people, three Iraqis apparently bystanders were killed in this particular incident today as they drove through this particular neighborhood. And this particular search comes just hours after an overnight search for Saddam Hussein in three bomb houses just north of his home town of Tikrit a couple of hours drive north of Baghdad.
According to U.S. officials, they now say they have Saddam Hussein on the run, that they're closing in on him and that he is moving location every three to four hours -- Sophia.
CHOI: Nic Robertson, thank you so much.
And for more on the intelligence angle on the hunted for Saddam Hussein, we go to Chris Plante at the Pentagon. How much can the U.S. troops expect from all the fancy intel jens equipment out there?
CHRIS PLANTE, CNN SENIOR PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, from the fancy intelligence equipment, probably very little help, quite honestly. Billions and billions of dollars of overhead surveillance and surveillance aircraft and all kinds of great widgetes and gadgets are of no use for an individual like this.
So it's possible they could get lucky and run across an intercepted radio transmission or telephone call of some kind, but chances are in a situation like this, they're going to rely on human intelligence. Human intelligence being people on the ground, regular Iraqis who might walk in and provide the U.S. with a piece of information that will lead them to Saddam Hussein in the end.
This is what happened when they were looking for Saddam's sons, Uday and Qusay. Someone came to them and told them where they were. The U.S. was able to go and get them. This is what happened, and what Nic was describing, the raid on the farmhouses. Someone came in and provided intelligence saying they knew where Saddam was. That time they came up short.
U.S. forces insisted one of these times they won't come up short. The intelligence coming from a person. It may be a regime official whose in custody. One key regime official, Mahmud al Tekriti, the only ace in the deck of cards, who is not a member of Saddam Hussein's family, is in U.S. custody, and has reportedly being very cooperative.
It's not known who's been leading U.S. forces to these recent raids, but in the end, it's expected that an individual will be able to provide information as to the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein. And that's what will lead U.S. forces to him in the final analysis -- Sophia.
CHOI: So if I'm reading you right, since the deaths of Uday and Qusay Hussein, they are getting better human intelligence then?
PLANTE: It's not that they're getting better at the human intelligence necessarily, but as I understand it, and what we're hearing from our reporters on the ground there also, is that more people are willing to come forward. That this gives the perception to Iraqis, a, that the United States is not going anywhere, and b, that the regime really is crumbling beneath Saddam Hussein's feet.
So once it's established that those two facts are in fact real it's expected that more people will come forward, provide information about the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein, and of course, what Iraqis saw the other day in the killing of Uday and Qusay Hussein would certainly give cold feet, I would think, to anyone that is considering offering safe harbor to Saddam Hussein in their home.
So it does appear that progress is being made, that he's on the run. And this is really all coming from human beings on the ground, from people in custody and from Iraqis now seeing handwriting on the wall and being more cooperative -- Sophia.
CHOI: Chris Plante at the Pentagon. Thank you.
And now let's bring in our military analyst, retired Air force General Don Shepperd. He's in Tucson, Arizona this Sunday. Thanks for joining us.
DON SHEPPERD, AIR FORCE GENERAL, RET.: My pleasure, Sophia.
CHOI: So General, do you think the coalition is about to catch Saddam Hussein? SHEPPERD: I think they're getting very close. It's just impossible to predict what day, what hour, a couple weeks, a couple months. But the end is coming for sure. As Chris Plante said, it's very likely that the key piece of information will be provided by human intelligence source, maybe someone in the family, maybe someone disgruntled, maybe someone after the reward that says, he's in that house now. And that's the action that they'll go on.
These other pieces of sophisticated machinery are very key, however. You watch with drones, you watch with predators, you listen, and you also have many special forces many paid informants on the ground. It all adds up eventually, I believe we'll find him, and I think it will be soon, Sophia.
CHOI: And when we find him, will we get him dead or alive?
SHEPPERD: That's the key question. Clearly we would like him alive, if at all possible, for all sorts of reasons. On the other hand, it's probably going to be determined by him and what he does or those surrounding him do at the end. And it's also going to be determined by the military commander on the scene who clearly is not going to take unnecessary risks for the troops. If he comes out shooting, we'll probably go in shooting.
So dead or alive, it's going to come to an end. And again, I predict fairly soon Sophia, but that's just a guess.
CHOI: Well let's talk a little bit about military tactics. How does that change when you're closing in on a target like Saddam Hussein?
SHEPPERD: Well it really doesn't change except that when he is on the run, that makes him more vulnerable. If he really is changing locations every two or three hours, and he's doing that also at night, there's a lot less traffic at night. We're very good at night operations. Again, we're watched with people on the ground and with overhead sensors, so it makes him much more vulnerable.
The tactics themselves, many of the tactics are pre-rehearsed and pre-planned and can be brought together very quickly. What we do is, when we get intelligence, we evaluate that intelligence, when we decide to go, we rapidly put together a plan, assemble the forces, surround the area, go in and then react to what we see on the scene.
So a lot of it is standard procedure. A lot of it -- we've had a lot of experience now in the past couple of months, we're getting very good at this, Sophia.
CHOI: And we're hearing that he might be holed up in his hometown of Tikrit. Now why would he stay there knowing that the troops are on to that locale? Does he have nowhere else to hide?
SHEPPERD: That's a really great question. You would think logically you would go somewhere else. Well the problem is, that's where the loyalists are. And that's where a lot of underground tunnels are. He knows that area. And he has a lot of sympathy and a lot of family in that area. So he's running out of place to go. He knows a lot of people are looking for him.
One logical question is why doesn't he go to another country. There's a lot of countries around that simply won't accept him now, even though billions of dollars hidden can provide a lot of cover, he's running out of places to hide. And the most logical place you would go is around your family. And that's around Tikrit, Mosul, places of that sort. And northwestern Baghdad, Sophia.
CHOI: Well how can anyone be sure that this is in fact Saddam Hussein and not one of his decoys or look alikes?
SHEPPERD: Probably can't. Again it comes from human intelligence and people we've learned to trust because we've trusted the information they've provided before and we trust them. But again you're liable to go in and find and find somebody you think is Saddam Hussein, it turns out to be a decoy. All of that to be determined after you capture him. So you can't be sure. That's why you have to chase a lot of these leads, not wildly, but with a plan. But you have to be very careful not to expose and get a bunch of our troops in some stupid plan. We're very careful and methodical about this, Sophia.
CHOI: And while I have you, I want to turn and ask you about Liberia. We've got troops in several areas already, Iraq, Afghanistan. Can we go into another arena without stretching the troops too much?
SHEPPERD: Well, we can. As general David Chrisman said earlier today, the big unasked question is what about Korea. And that's the thing that looms in the back of our mind, because that's a big operation. The thing about Liberia is we can go in with a very small number of troops and we can make a big difference. And it looks like what we're going to do is not go in with the troops on the ground as peacekeepers, but to support the West African states.
That requires a small number of people. Althought it does require air lift and sea lift which we are short on everywhere and all the time. So we have to keep on the mind, we have to continue after bin Laden in Afghanistan. We have to continue against Saddam Hussein in Iraq, and the possibility of Korean operations looming on the horizon, it stretches us thin, but can do it. We just have to be careful to define the mission and get out when it's over, Sophia.
CHOI: I've got to move along here, but I just wanted to quickly ask you, you mentioned the hunt for Osama bin Laden. We haven't heard much of that lately. How is that going? What have you heard?
SHEPPERD: What I've heard is they're still looking, and they don't know where he is, but most likely he's in the northwestern provinces of Pakistan. That's a large area, uncooperative with the Pakistan government. But we're still, particularly with special forces operataions and CIA looking there. And also on the Eastern portion of Afganistan. But they don't appear to be close to him. They do appear to be close to Saddam, or at least closer, Sophia.
CHOI: General Don Shepperd, thanks so much. And I know I'll be seeing you again in the second half of this show. Thanks. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Saddam>
Aired July 27, 2003 - 18: ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOPHIA CHOI, CNN ANCHOR: Well they could be just hours behind them. That's what U.S. military officials believe. Their search for Saddam Hussein is taking them to Tikrit and to Baghdad today. CNN's Nic Robertson joins us from the Iraqi Capital, Nic.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Sophia, the search for Saddam Hussein was going on in a residential neighborhood of Baghdad earlier this after noon. According to Iraqi police, they believe Saddam Hussein was in the neighborhood. According to eye witnesses, there were a large number of U.S. troops in the area. Some of them wearing what they described as black fatigues, having a lot of equipment on them.
According to Coalition officials, the elite task force 20. The group that's tasked with finding Saddam Hussein and other top Ba'ath party officials was involved in this particular operation. But according to eye witnesses on the scene there, a number of Iraqi bystanders who were driving their cars through the neighborhood at the time of this particular raid, got caught up. They were told -- the bystanders said the cars were told to slow down, and they were slowing down and they say the people in the vehicles were shot at.
We're told at least three people, three Iraqis apparently bystanders were killed in this particular incident today as they drove through this particular neighborhood. And this particular search comes just hours after an overnight search for Saddam Hussein in three bomb houses just north of his home town of Tikrit a couple of hours drive north of Baghdad.
According to U.S. officials, they now say they have Saddam Hussein on the run, that they're closing in on him and that he is moving location every three to four hours -- Sophia.
CHOI: Nic Robertson, thank you so much.
And for more on the intelligence angle on the hunted for Saddam Hussein, we go to Chris Plante at the Pentagon. How much can the U.S. troops expect from all the fancy intel jens equipment out there?
CHRIS PLANTE, CNN SENIOR PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, from the fancy intelligence equipment, probably very little help, quite honestly. Billions and billions of dollars of overhead surveillance and surveillance aircraft and all kinds of great widgetes and gadgets are of no use for an individual like this.
So it's possible they could get lucky and run across an intercepted radio transmission or telephone call of some kind, but chances are in a situation like this, they're going to rely on human intelligence. Human intelligence being people on the ground, regular Iraqis who might walk in and provide the U.S. with a piece of information that will lead them to Saddam Hussein in the end.
This is what happened when they were looking for Saddam's sons, Uday and Qusay. Someone came to them and told them where they were. The U.S. was able to go and get them. This is what happened, and what Nic was describing, the raid on the farmhouses. Someone came in and provided intelligence saying they knew where Saddam was. That time they came up short.
U.S. forces insisted one of these times they won't come up short. The intelligence coming from a person. It may be a regime official whose in custody. One key regime official, Mahmud al Tekriti, the only ace in the deck of cards, who is not a member of Saddam Hussein's family, is in U.S. custody, and has reportedly being very cooperative.
It's not known who's been leading U.S. forces to these recent raids, but in the end, it's expected that an individual will be able to provide information as to the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein. And that's what will lead U.S. forces to him in the final analysis -- Sophia.
CHOI: So if I'm reading you right, since the deaths of Uday and Qusay Hussein, they are getting better human intelligence then?
PLANTE: It's not that they're getting better at the human intelligence necessarily, but as I understand it, and what we're hearing from our reporters on the ground there also, is that more people are willing to come forward. That this gives the perception to Iraqis, a, that the United States is not going anywhere, and b, that the regime really is crumbling beneath Saddam Hussein's feet.
So once it's established that those two facts are in fact real it's expected that more people will come forward, provide information about the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein, and of course, what Iraqis saw the other day in the killing of Uday and Qusay Hussein would certainly give cold feet, I would think, to anyone that is considering offering safe harbor to Saddam Hussein in their home.
So it does appear that progress is being made, that he's on the run. And this is really all coming from human beings on the ground, from people in custody and from Iraqis now seeing handwriting on the wall and being more cooperative -- Sophia.
CHOI: Chris Plante at the Pentagon. Thank you.
And now let's bring in our military analyst, retired Air force General Don Shepperd. He's in Tucson, Arizona this Sunday. Thanks for joining us.
DON SHEPPERD, AIR FORCE GENERAL, RET.: My pleasure, Sophia.
CHOI: So General, do you think the coalition is about to catch Saddam Hussein? SHEPPERD: I think they're getting very close. It's just impossible to predict what day, what hour, a couple weeks, a couple months. But the end is coming for sure. As Chris Plante said, it's very likely that the key piece of information will be provided by human intelligence source, maybe someone in the family, maybe someone disgruntled, maybe someone after the reward that says, he's in that house now. And that's the action that they'll go on.
These other pieces of sophisticated machinery are very key, however. You watch with drones, you watch with predators, you listen, and you also have many special forces many paid informants on the ground. It all adds up eventually, I believe we'll find him, and I think it will be soon, Sophia.
CHOI: And when we find him, will we get him dead or alive?
SHEPPERD: That's the key question. Clearly we would like him alive, if at all possible, for all sorts of reasons. On the other hand, it's probably going to be determined by him and what he does or those surrounding him do at the end. And it's also going to be determined by the military commander on the scene who clearly is not going to take unnecessary risks for the troops. If he comes out shooting, we'll probably go in shooting.
So dead or alive, it's going to come to an end. And again, I predict fairly soon Sophia, but that's just a guess.
CHOI: Well let's talk a little bit about military tactics. How does that change when you're closing in on a target like Saddam Hussein?
SHEPPERD: Well it really doesn't change except that when he is on the run, that makes him more vulnerable. If he really is changing locations every two or three hours, and he's doing that also at night, there's a lot less traffic at night. We're very good at night operations. Again, we're watched with people on the ground and with overhead sensors, so it makes him much more vulnerable.
The tactics themselves, many of the tactics are pre-rehearsed and pre-planned and can be brought together very quickly. What we do is, when we get intelligence, we evaluate that intelligence, when we decide to go, we rapidly put together a plan, assemble the forces, surround the area, go in and then react to what we see on the scene.
So a lot of it is standard procedure. A lot of it -- we've had a lot of experience now in the past couple of months, we're getting very good at this, Sophia.
CHOI: And we're hearing that he might be holed up in his hometown of Tikrit. Now why would he stay there knowing that the troops are on to that locale? Does he have nowhere else to hide?
SHEPPERD: That's a really great question. You would think logically you would go somewhere else. Well the problem is, that's where the loyalists are. And that's where a lot of underground tunnels are. He knows that area. And he has a lot of sympathy and a lot of family in that area. So he's running out of place to go. He knows a lot of people are looking for him.
One logical question is why doesn't he go to another country. There's a lot of countries around that simply won't accept him now, even though billions of dollars hidden can provide a lot of cover, he's running out of places to hide. And the most logical place you would go is around your family. And that's around Tikrit, Mosul, places of that sort. And northwestern Baghdad, Sophia.
CHOI: Well how can anyone be sure that this is in fact Saddam Hussein and not one of his decoys or look alikes?
SHEPPERD: Probably can't. Again it comes from human intelligence and people we've learned to trust because we've trusted the information they've provided before and we trust them. But again you're liable to go in and find and find somebody you think is Saddam Hussein, it turns out to be a decoy. All of that to be determined after you capture him. So you can't be sure. That's why you have to chase a lot of these leads, not wildly, but with a plan. But you have to be very careful not to expose and get a bunch of our troops in some stupid plan. We're very careful and methodical about this, Sophia.
CHOI: And while I have you, I want to turn and ask you about Liberia. We've got troops in several areas already, Iraq, Afghanistan. Can we go into another arena without stretching the troops too much?
SHEPPERD: Well, we can. As general David Chrisman said earlier today, the big unasked question is what about Korea. And that's the thing that looms in the back of our mind, because that's a big operation. The thing about Liberia is we can go in with a very small number of troops and we can make a big difference. And it looks like what we're going to do is not go in with the troops on the ground as peacekeepers, but to support the West African states.
That requires a small number of people. Althought it does require air lift and sea lift which we are short on everywhere and all the time. So we have to keep on the mind, we have to continue after bin Laden in Afghanistan. We have to continue against Saddam Hussein in Iraq, and the possibility of Korean operations looming on the horizon, it stretches us thin, but can do it. We just have to be careful to define the mission and get out when it's over, Sophia.
CHOI: I've got to move along here, but I just wanted to quickly ask you, you mentioned the hunt for Osama bin Laden. We haven't heard much of that lately. How is that going? What have you heard?
SHEPPERD: What I've heard is they're still looking, and they don't know where he is, but most likely he's in the northwestern provinces of Pakistan. That's a large area, uncooperative with the Pakistan government. But we're still, particularly with special forces operataions and CIA looking there. And also on the Eastern portion of Afganistan. But they don't appear to be close to him. They do appear to be close to Saddam, or at least closer, Sophia.
CHOI: General Don Shepperd, thanks so much. And I know I'll be seeing you again in the second half of this show. Thanks. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Saddam>
