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CNN Live Sunday
A Look At What Arnold Schwarzenegger, Gray Davis Are Doing
Aired October 05, 2003 - 16:13 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN ANCHOR: In less than 48 hours California voters will begin casting ballots in the recall election. Front- runner Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Sacramento today facing growing allegations he mistreated women. Our Kelly Wallace is covering his campaign, and she joins us live from there. So Kelly, is this a candidate who tastes victory?
KELLY WALLACE: This has all the makings, Andrea, of a victory celebration, but that victory is definitely not a sure thing. You can see behind me the actor turned candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger speaking to a crowd of several thousand, the biggest crowds yet of this four-day bus tour, ending up here at the base of the state Capitol in Sacramento.
This coming, though, after the candidate has been facing days of allegations of sexual misconduct and questions about his views regarding Adolf Hitler. And outside this event you have several dozen protesters, some holding signs such as saying, No Gropeinator for governor.
But Schwarzenegger's aides say they are confident. They say they have not seen any damage in the polls and they still believe this recall will pass by a large margin.
But there is some concern in the latest poll. A poll that was conducted Wednesday through Saturday showing that 54 percent say they would definitely or probably vote for the recall. But when you look at the number of those who say definitely, they are for the recall, that number going down. 52 percent on Wednesday before these allegations surfaced. That goes down to 47 percent on Friday and then 44 percent on Saturday.
Right now, Andrea, Schwarzenegger's aides say the key is turnout, getting out the vote. Over these 70 -- or the 48 hours remaining, 2 million households will receive a phone call from Arnold Schwarzenegger. They are trying to do everything they can to get as many supporters to the polls. Andrea, back to you.
KOPPEL: And I'm sure he will be working the crowds over the next 42 -- or 48 hours. Kelly Wallace joining us there from California. Thank you so much.
Embattled California Governor Gray Davis says voters in his state now face a simple choice: him or Schwarzenegger. But before they decide, he's trying to make sure all California workers have health insurance.
Here's our congressional correspondent Candy Crowley.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: One of the good things about being in office is you can do things to help you stay in office. The governor of California Sunday signed a bill which will give access to healthcare to over a million workers. But first, from behind the stages, there was this word from the candidate.
GOV. GRAY DAVIS, (D) CALIFORNIA: Fifteen women have now come forward indicating they have serious problems with Mr. Schwarzenegger's behavior towards them. The toll apparently is mounting daily. These accusations, if true, are very disturbing and raise serious questions about whether Mr. Schwarzenegger should be California's governor.
CROWLEY: In truth, this event was more rally than ceremony. They handed out no recall signs, and speaker after speaker railed against the effort to throw the governor out of office.
And in truth, Schwarzenegger's current problems are probably more helpful to the Davis campaign at this point than any kind of bill signing. Each day since the revelations came to light the Davis campaign has pushed Arnold Schwarzenegger further and further. Today the governor calling for Schwarzenegger to explain the stories.
DAVIS: I believe Mr. Schwarzenegger should deal with these accusations in detail, not through partial explanations, evasive answers, and partial denials. The question gets down to this: are all 15 women and their families lying, or is Mr. Schwarzenegger not telling us the truth?
CROWLEY: The Davis campaign more hopeful than it has been in recent weeks believes the numbers are beginning to turn around. But there are only two days left, and most polls still see the majority of Californians want a recall. Candy Crowley, CNN, Los Angeles.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL: And you can bet that larry king will be talking about the recall race tonight. That's because governor gray davis will be a guest on larry king live beginning at 9:00 eastern, 6:00 pacific.
So are Davis's last-minute efforts going to help him avoid the recall? And are all those groping and grabbing allegations hurting Schwarzenegger's lead? Ron Brownstein covers politics for the "L.A. Times" and is a political analyst for CNN. Ron, what do you think?
RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIME": Well, I mean, it's hard to imagine that revelations of this sort wouldn't have some impact, and we are seeing some -- more volatility in a number of the polls in the last few days. But in fact, the Davis people held a conference call this morning to argue that their own polling showed the race on the recall virtually even on Friday and Saturday.
On the other hand, the public poll that came out from NBC and the "San Jose Mercury" showed that, although the race tightened on Friday, it had opened up a little bit on Saturday. And most significantly I think, Andrea, Gray Davis's approval rating is not changing in anybody's polling. And that is really the problem he faces. Less than 40 percent of the state think he's doing a good job, and in those circumstances it's very hard to defeat this recall.
KOPPEL: Why is it, do you think, that so many of the California voters who are primarily Democratic are feeling the need to shift not just candidates but shift party affiliations in this race?
BROWNSTEIN: Great question. In fact, this is a very Democratic state. Over the last decade Democrats have carried it by over a million votes in each of the past three presidential elections. Last fall they won every statewide office for the first time since the 19th Century.
So it is remarkable that Davis finds himself in this situation. He has lost a significant portion of the Democratic base, especially less affluent voters, those without college education. They're moving on issues like the increase in the car tax and his decision to sign legislation to allow illegal immigrants to obtain driver's licenses. He was hurt initially by the energy prices. That is a huge problem for him.
Now, whether they are really switching affiliation is another question, because it's entirely possible that Arnold Schwarzenegger could win this election with fewer people voting for him than the number that voted to keep Gray Davis in office. So it is I think a personal repudiation of Davis we're seeing rather than some sort of partisan shift at this point.
KOPPEL: If you were one of the advisers in the Davis camp, what would you be telling your candidate to do right now? Does he have any chance in the next two days of squeaking by?
BROWNSTEIN: Sure, there's always a chance. I don't know that it's really our place to give advice to the candidates. What we can say is I think we can see what they're doing, what they believe is the strategy.
Look, as I said, his approval rating has been only at about 35 percent consistently, which means I think they've decided they can't convince a majority of the voters to have an affirmative positive vote for Gray Davis. What they've got to do is convince that last percentage that the alternative is worse. And that's why even before these allegations came out about Schwarzenegger they had shifted their focus toward criticizing him. Now that is really their one path.
I don't think they believe they can change the opinions about Davis. They're too settled. What they're hoping is since opinion is less settled and more fluid on Schwarzenegger, perhaps on that that front they can convince voters that the devil you know is a safer bet.
KOPPEL: And what have we seen in terms of the impact of the personal allegations against Schwarzenegger, the impact in terms of the polling? Has it really hurt him, and do you see this playing out any more over the next day or two?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, it depends who you listen to. As I said, I mean, the Davis people say yes indeed, it has hurt him a lot. The Republicans say no, it hasn't. The public poll comes out somewhere in between. Some softening of the pro-recall support, perhaps some increase in the negative perception of Schwarzenegger, but not yet enough to fundamentally change this election.
What you've got is a very settled opinion about Gray Davis. Very quickly, it reminds me somewhat of a presidential election like 1992 where George Bush as the incumbent had very low approval ratings, at various points he was able to drive down support for Bill Clinton by raising questions about him, but in the end, unless you can convince voters that you deserve to stay in office, it's awfully hard to win simply by discrediting the other guy.
KOPPEL: Ron, what can you tell our viewers out there? Will it be over on Tuesday, or do you see this playing ow anymore?
BROWNSTEIN: I think it goes on. I think this now looks more like one skirmish in a war. Schwarzenegger may have had the opportunity before this to sort of consolidate a new middle in the state. I think it's much more likely that we're going to see a very polarized result, a very partisan result in this election. And and the prospect that Democrats will be talking about perhaps litigation from some of these women. There will be I'm sure a discussion of a re-recall effort although cooler heads might prevail on that.
And all of this will probably embolden the Democratic majority in the state legislature to resist Schwarzenegger. So I think Californians, however it turns out on Tuesday, are in for a period of a significant partisan conflict ahead.
KOPPEL: I think I just heard a collective groan of oh, no from our viewers.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
KOPPEL: Ron Brownstein, I know you're going to have a busy couple of days. Thanks for joining us tonight.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
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Aired October 5, 2003 - 16:13 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN ANCHOR: In less than 48 hours California voters will begin casting ballots in the recall election. Front- runner Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Sacramento today facing growing allegations he mistreated women. Our Kelly Wallace is covering his campaign, and she joins us live from there. So Kelly, is this a candidate who tastes victory?
KELLY WALLACE: This has all the makings, Andrea, of a victory celebration, but that victory is definitely not a sure thing. You can see behind me the actor turned candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger speaking to a crowd of several thousand, the biggest crowds yet of this four-day bus tour, ending up here at the base of the state Capitol in Sacramento.
This coming, though, after the candidate has been facing days of allegations of sexual misconduct and questions about his views regarding Adolf Hitler. And outside this event you have several dozen protesters, some holding signs such as saying, No Gropeinator for governor.
But Schwarzenegger's aides say they are confident. They say they have not seen any damage in the polls and they still believe this recall will pass by a large margin.
But there is some concern in the latest poll. A poll that was conducted Wednesday through Saturday showing that 54 percent say they would definitely or probably vote for the recall. But when you look at the number of those who say definitely, they are for the recall, that number going down. 52 percent on Wednesday before these allegations surfaced. That goes down to 47 percent on Friday and then 44 percent on Saturday.
Right now, Andrea, Schwarzenegger's aides say the key is turnout, getting out the vote. Over these 70 -- or the 48 hours remaining, 2 million households will receive a phone call from Arnold Schwarzenegger. They are trying to do everything they can to get as many supporters to the polls. Andrea, back to you.
KOPPEL: And I'm sure he will be working the crowds over the next 42 -- or 48 hours. Kelly Wallace joining us there from California. Thank you so much.
Embattled California Governor Gray Davis says voters in his state now face a simple choice: him or Schwarzenegger. But before they decide, he's trying to make sure all California workers have health insurance.
Here's our congressional correspondent Candy Crowley.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: One of the good things about being in office is you can do things to help you stay in office. The governor of California Sunday signed a bill which will give access to healthcare to over a million workers. But first, from behind the stages, there was this word from the candidate.
GOV. GRAY DAVIS, (D) CALIFORNIA: Fifteen women have now come forward indicating they have serious problems with Mr. Schwarzenegger's behavior towards them. The toll apparently is mounting daily. These accusations, if true, are very disturbing and raise serious questions about whether Mr. Schwarzenegger should be California's governor.
CROWLEY: In truth, this event was more rally than ceremony. They handed out no recall signs, and speaker after speaker railed against the effort to throw the governor out of office.
And in truth, Schwarzenegger's current problems are probably more helpful to the Davis campaign at this point than any kind of bill signing. Each day since the revelations came to light the Davis campaign has pushed Arnold Schwarzenegger further and further. Today the governor calling for Schwarzenegger to explain the stories.
DAVIS: I believe Mr. Schwarzenegger should deal with these accusations in detail, not through partial explanations, evasive answers, and partial denials. The question gets down to this: are all 15 women and their families lying, or is Mr. Schwarzenegger not telling us the truth?
CROWLEY: The Davis campaign more hopeful than it has been in recent weeks believes the numbers are beginning to turn around. But there are only two days left, and most polls still see the majority of Californians want a recall. Candy Crowley, CNN, Los Angeles.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL: And you can bet that larry king will be talking about the recall race tonight. That's because governor gray davis will be a guest on larry king live beginning at 9:00 eastern, 6:00 pacific.
So are Davis's last-minute efforts going to help him avoid the recall? And are all those groping and grabbing allegations hurting Schwarzenegger's lead? Ron Brownstein covers politics for the "L.A. Times" and is a political analyst for CNN. Ron, what do you think?
RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIME": Well, I mean, it's hard to imagine that revelations of this sort wouldn't have some impact, and we are seeing some -- more volatility in a number of the polls in the last few days. But in fact, the Davis people held a conference call this morning to argue that their own polling showed the race on the recall virtually even on Friday and Saturday.
On the other hand, the public poll that came out from NBC and the "San Jose Mercury" showed that, although the race tightened on Friday, it had opened up a little bit on Saturday. And most significantly I think, Andrea, Gray Davis's approval rating is not changing in anybody's polling. And that is really the problem he faces. Less than 40 percent of the state think he's doing a good job, and in those circumstances it's very hard to defeat this recall.
KOPPEL: Why is it, do you think, that so many of the California voters who are primarily Democratic are feeling the need to shift not just candidates but shift party affiliations in this race?
BROWNSTEIN: Great question. In fact, this is a very Democratic state. Over the last decade Democrats have carried it by over a million votes in each of the past three presidential elections. Last fall they won every statewide office for the first time since the 19th Century.
So it is remarkable that Davis finds himself in this situation. He has lost a significant portion of the Democratic base, especially less affluent voters, those without college education. They're moving on issues like the increase in the car tax and his decision to sign legislation to allow illegal immigrants to obtain driver's licenses. He was hurt initially by the energy prices. That is a huge problem for him.
Now, whether they are really switching affiliation is another question, because it's entirely possible that Arnold Schwarzenegger could win this election with fewer people voting for him than the number that voted to keep Gray Davis in office. So it is I think a personal repudiation of Davis we're seeing rather than some sort of partisan shift at this point.
KOPPEL: If you were one of the advisers in the Davis camp, what would you be telling your candidate to do right now? Does he have any chance in the next two days of squeaking by?
BROWNSTEIN: Sure, there's always a chance. I don't know that it's really our place to give advice to the candidates. What we can say is I think we can see what they're doing, what they believe is the strategy.
Look, as I said, his approval rating has been only at about 35 percent consistently, which means I think they've decided they can't convince a majority of the voters to have an affirmative positive vote for Gray Davis. What they've got to do is convince that last percentage that the alternative is worse. And that's why even before these allegations came out about Schwarzenegger they had shifted their focus toward criticizing him. Now that is really their one path.
I don't think they believe they can change the opinions about Davis. They're too settled. What they're hoping is since opinion is less settled and more fluid on Schwarzenegger, perhaps on that that front they can convince voters that the devil you know is a safer bet.
KOPPEL: And what have we seen in terms of the impact of the personal allegations against Schwarzenegger, the impact in terms of the polling? Has it really hurt him, and do you see this playing out any more over the next day or two?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, it depends who you listen to. As I said, I mean, the Davis people say yes indeed, it has hurt him a lot. The Republicans say no, it hasn't. The public poll comes out somewhere in between. Some softening of the pro-recall support, perhaps some increase in the negative perception of Schwarzenegger, but not yet enough to fundamentally change this election.
What you've got is a very settled opinion about Gray Davis. Very quickly, it reminds me somewhat of a presidential election like 1992 where George Bush as the incumbent had very low approval ratings, at various points he was able to drive down support for Bill Clinton by raising questions about him, but in the end, unless you can convince voters that you deserve to stay in office, it's awfully hard to win simply by discrediting the other guy.
KOPPEL: Ron, what can you tell our viewers out there? Will it be over on Tuesday, or do you see this playing ow anymore?
BROWNSTEIN: I think it goes on. I think this now looks more like one skirmish in a war. Schwarzenegger may have had the opportunity before this to sort of consolidate a new middle in the state. I think it's much more likely that we're going to see a very polarized result, a very partisan result in this election. And and the prospect that Democrats will be talking about perhaps litigation from some of these women. There will be I'm sure a discussion of a re-recall effort although cooler heads might prevail on that.
And all of this will probably embolden the Democratic majority in the state legislature to resist Schwarzenegger. So I think Californians, however it turns out on Tuesday, are in for a period of a significant partisan conflict ahead.
KOPPEL: I think I just heard a collective groan of oh, no from our viewers.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
KOPPEL: Ron Brownstein, I know you're going to have a busy couple of days. Thanks for joining us tonight.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
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