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CNN Live Sunday

What Are Political Implications of Hussein's Capture?

Aired December 14, 2003 - 16:28   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: For a look at the political implications of the capture of Saddam Hussein, let's turn to CNN's senior political analyst, Bill Schneider. He joins us from CNN Center in Atlanta.
Bill, as we have been hearing earlier today, the president told Iraqis that they don't have the fear the rule of Saddam Hussein ever again. But the president also said that the threat of violence in Iraq remains. And he said the terrorists will be defeated.

My question to you is, based on the experts you have been talking to, do you think the resistance from those who are loyal to Saddam Hussein just melts away now that he is captured?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: I don't think it melts away, Judy, because they were fighting not just for Saddam Hussein, but also for their own power and privileges. They were a minority in Iraq, the Sunnis. They held power under Saddam Hussein and they don't want to give it up.

Even without Saddam Hussein, they're fearful of a government dominated by their ethnic or ideological enemies, by Shiites or other ethnic groups. And they will not have their privileges. So they may try to continue fighting.

That's the critical political variable. Will the resistance diminish? Because if Americans continue to be killed in Iraq, the issue will remain controversial in American politics.

WOODRUFF: Bill, if you are a Democrat running for president, what is the best you can hope for?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I think the Democrats, the best they can hope for is that the issue will go away the way it did in 1992. Remember, after the Gulf War victory, it wasn't an issue in 1992. But I don't think that is likely to happen this time. I think for several reasons.

One, is this makes it very different. There's the memory of 9/11.

Second of all, there is going to be a trial of Saddam Hussein. And that's certain to rivet public attention.

And third, there is the prospect of an upcoming election in Iraq and the likelihood of a ceremonious transfer of power to the Iraqis. All of that will remind Americans this is not 1992.

WOODRUFF: So we're talking about a completely different landscape here.

SCHNEIDER: Completely different landscape. And Democrats are, of course, wondering, is this an issue that they can rally around. You know, it's very difficult to run a campaign in which your basic premise is, we're going to quarrel with success. And most Americans right now, I'm sure, will see the Iraq policy as a success, even if they have certain reservations and objections to the occupation. Quarreling with success is not a way to win. Democrats want to change the subject. In 1992 it was easy, it was the economy. The economy is not very good; there has been a net loss of jobs under George Bush. Things are looking up, and that means it's going to be tough for Democrats to get a lot of traction on the economic issue the way they did in 1992.

WOODRUFF: So searching for an issue maybe? All right, Bill Schneider, thank you very much.

SCHNEIDER: Sure, Judy.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired December 14, 2003 - 16:28   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: For a look at the political implications of the capture of Saddam Hussein, let's turn to CNN's senior political analyst, Bill Schneider. He joins us from CNN Center in Atlanta.
Bill, as we have been hearing earlier today, the president told Iraqis that they don't have the fear the rule of Saddam Hussein ever again. But the president also said that the threat of violence in Iraq remains. And he said the terrorists will be defeated.

My question to you is, based on the experts you have been talking to, do you think the resistance from those who are loyal to Saddam Hussein just melts away now that he is captured?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: I don't think it melts away, Judy, because they were fighting not just for Saddam Hussein, but also for their own power and privileges. They were a minority in Iraq, the Sunnis. They held power under Saddam Hussein and they don't want to give it up.

Even without Saddam Hussein, they're fearful of a government dominated by their ethnic or ideological enemies, by Shiites or other ethnic groups. And they will not have their privileges. So they may try to continue fighting.

That's the critical political variable. Will the resistance diminish? Because if Americans continue to be killed in Iraq, the issue will remain controversial in American politics.

WOODRUFF: Bill, if you are a Democrat running for president, what is the best you can hope for?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I think the Democrats, the best they can hope for is that the issue will go away the way it did in 1992. Remember, after the Gulf War victory, it wasn't an issue in 1992. But I don't think that is likely to happen this time. I think for several reasons.

One, is this makes it very different. There's the memory of 9/11.

Second of all, there is going to be a trial of Saddam Hussein. And that's certain to rivet public attention.

And third, there is the prospect of an upcoming election in Iraq and the likelihood of a ceremonious transfer of power to the Iraqis. All of that will remind Americans this is not 1992.

WOODRUFF: So we're talking about a completely different landscape here.

SCHNEIDER: Completely different landscape. And Democrats are, of course, wondering, is this an issue that they can rally around. You know, it's very difficult to run a campaign in which your basic premise is, we're going to quarrel with success. And most Americans right now, I'm sure, will see the Iraq policy as a success, even if they have certain reservations and objections to the occupation. Quarreling with success is not a way to win. Democrats want to change the subject. In 1992 it was easy, it was the economy. The economy is not very good; there has been a net loss of jobs under George Bush. Things are looking up, and that means it's going to be tough for Democrats to get a lot of traction on the economic issue the way they did in 1992.

WOODRUFF: So searching for an issue maybe? All right, Bill Schneider, thank you very much.

SCHNEIDER: Sure, Judy.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com