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CNN Live Sunday

Residents Evacuate Mt. St. Helens Region; Samarra After the Battle

Aired October 03, 2004 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DREW GRIFFIN, CNN ANCHOR: And it is 11:00 a.m. in Washington, 8:00 a.m. at Mount St. Helens this morning. I'm Drew Griffin at CNN global headquarters here in Atlanta. Welcome to CNN LIVE SUNDAY. Ahead this hour, watching and waiting. Residents evacuate the Mount St. Helens region and scientists warn of imminent eruption. We're going to have a live report as you're looking live at the mountain this morning.
Also, Samarra after the battle. Our Jane Arraf tours the scene of intense fighting as life there begins to return to normal. And this...

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PETER BEAVER: As soon as I saw Chad, the blood in my veins literally ran cold.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFIN: The story of Peter Beaver and Chad Hayes and how war and injury in Iraq forged a friendship for life. But first a check of the top stories this hour.

Palestinian sources say six people killed in an Israeli military action in Gaza. Israel says it will press forward with attacks in order to stop rocket attacks from Palestinian areas into Israeli areas, the deadliest offensive in Gaza in four years there.

In Haiti, at least 14 people have been killed in political unrest. Supporters of ousted President Jean Bertrand Aristide demanding his return. Meantime, the Senate president in Haiti has been arrested along with two other politicians linked to Aristide.

Under tight security in Washington, World Bank and IMF officials from 184 nations are meeting at this hour. Earlier, finance officials failed to reach agreement on debt relief for the world's poorest country.

Seismic energy building toward the bursting point in Washington state, but this hour scientists are warning of a major eruption that may be imminent. As the volcano underneath Mount St. Helen's grows, the public has been cleared from around that mountain and reporter Donna Tetreault is one of them. She's joining us now on the phone in Castle Rock, Washington. Donna.

DONNA TETREAULT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Drew. Yes, I'm in Castle Rock about 35 miles from Mount St. Helen's. The alert level was raised to three and that means an eruption could happen any time. Life and property are now threatened by Mount St. Helens. Yesterday scientists reassessed the activity after a puff of steam flowed out of the creator at about 12:15 Pacific time. The earthquakes, which were up to three in magnitude and occurring two to four times per minute had stopped but a harmonic tremor was in play. A harmonic tremor moves magma to the surface. Magma is lava underground.

When there's fresh magma at the surface, an explosion or eruption will take place. The harmonic tremor lasted for about 50 minutes and then earthquakes kicked up again and have been on going since then. All this activity led to evacuations. Tourists were evacuated from Johnston Ridge where they were trying to get a glimpse of the volcano. At this point, seven miles out is a safe distance according to scientists away from the volcano. The closest town to Mount St. Helen's is Cougar and if the eruption spews up ash, people there could be affected. Air traffic could also be affected. Friday's eruption forced out steam and ash, delaying and rerouting some flights near Portland and scientists at the USGS will continue to monitor the volcano. Drew.

GRIFFIN: Again, the danger there would be ash and ash blanketing that small town of Cougar.

TETREAULT: That's exactly right and then anybody with any kind of asthmatic problems could suffer some stress there. Also, they're saying for cars and for plants, the ash could devastate some vegetation there and it wouldn't be good for cars, as well. But as far as people, people with any asthma problems, related problems would be affected.

GRIFFIN: All right, Donna, thank you for that, live at the scene. The last big eruption at Mount St. Helens left ash, did leave ash for hundreds of miles around the volcano and cost $3 billion in damage. What might happen this time if there's another explosion or eruption? CNN meteorologist Rob Marciano has a look at that. Rob.

ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Drew, good news is they do not think it's going to be to the extent of the explosion or eruption back in 1980. But I want to give you a view as to some geography and some of the topography involved in where Mount St. Helen's is and some of the largest cities that may be affected by this. We'll zoom into the Pacific northwest, the specific states included there would be Washington and Oregon. The gray areas are the metro areas, Seattle and in Portland and then St. Helen's happens to be closer to Portland to its northeast by about 50 miles.

And this, you're looking at the southern flank of the mountain itself. So it's drastically different from the northern flank. Close cities here or towns I should say, Cougar is one, right about here. That's where a lot of -- if you're going to climb this thing, you would do it on the southern flank, you get your climbing permit at Cougar and then make that day hike up the mountain. I'll swing around to the north side and you'll see the drastic difference into what this thing looks like. Back in 1980, this is the flank that erupted and blew out the entire northern part of it. And you can see the devastation. It looks like a nuclear blast zone. This is where trees were flattened. This is where the glaciers and all the snow melt ran, took mud and rock and totally tore out some of the areas just around here.

Now there's a lava dome right in the center of this thing which is from some of the minor eruptions that took place from 1980 to 1986. That is where the steam and eruptions have been coming from the past couple of days. That is where they think the magma is beginning to flow up through and break through some layers that were developed since 1998. They think this is going to be a little bit stronger. What will happen? We'll get some more debris flying through the air than we did two days ago, likely not to the extent of 1980. that's good news, because if it were, the higher level winds would then take this to Portland because what we have in the flow in the atmosphere right now is a northeast wind. That would take some of that ash into Portland. This is unlikely right now.

It's more likely that we see a more minor eruption which would mean that it wouldn't get as high in the atmosphere and things would settle down a little bit closer to St. Helen's itself which would be a pretty unpopulated area. The other big concern, Drew, would be glaciers, snow melts and run off in the form of (UNINTELLIGIBLE), or debris flow. That's typically what does most of the damage, mud, trees, rocks just ripping through river canyons and that could be a possibility, as well. But we're not into the winter season which would have more of that snow which would create more damage, as well. So right now, it looks like more unpopulated areas would be affected by this unless it's bigger than they expect and we certainly don't hope for that.

GRIFFIN: Rob, I would think that the prevailing winds would normally be west to east in that area taking it to less populated areas. Is this current wind pattern right now unusual?

MARCIANO: It is, especially for this type of year. October 1st begins the rainy season. Typically you get more of an onshore flow. At the surface, there is that more typical westerly prevailing wind. But the higher up you go, it's more of a north and northeast wind. So a smaller explosion will keep it in that lower level wind which would actually bring it to the north and east which is where the Cascade Mountains are and a less populated area. So if we get a bigger explosion, we get that more unusual pattern which may take it into more populated areas, that is an unlikely scenario at this point.

GRIFFIN: Rob, thank you. We'll be back later. Thanks a lot.

Preparing for a battle of words. Here's a look at who's doing what on the campaign trail. The vice presidential candidates getting ready for their first debate. It happens on Tuesday. Vice President Cheney in Jackson, Wyoming, John Edwards in New York. President Bush taking a break from the campaign today. He attended church in Washington after stumping in Ohio yesterday. In one event, the president used John Kerry's debate rhetoric against him saying the U.S. does not need a global test for national security decisions.

Kerry's weekend campaigning takes him to the Midwest battleground state of Ohio today in response to his debate performance, Kerry says there's a lot for supporters to be happy about.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think the reason everybody's in such a good mood and applauding is that you're thrilled to know that I can complete a sentence in 15 words or less.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRIFFIN: John Kerry can claim bragging rights in the race, at least for now. In a "Newsweek" poll, 61 percent of Americans who watched the debate declared Kerry the winner of the debate, 19 percent say Mr. Bush won, 16 percent called it a tie. That same poll shows Kerry with a slight lead over the president after the debate. 47 percent of registered voters say they'd pick Kerry for president compared to 45 percent for Mr. Bush.

Despite the polls and the popular vote, the electoral college will determine who actually becomes president. A new CNN analysis shows President Bush maintaining his lead over John Kerry in the electoral college. The president has 301 electoral votes leading in 33 states. John Kerry has 237 votes and he leads in D.C. and in 17 states. Candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

Young students may also help decide a close presidential election. There's a push on college campuses in swing states to get students to register to vote. CNN's Denise Belgrave takes us to the University of Florida.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DENISE BELGRAVE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): College students and political activism -- definite bedfellows in this presidential election.

RICHARD SCHER, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA: We've sensed more student interest in this election than we've seen in a long, long time.

BELGRAVE: And students are using every tool at their disposal, including encouraging fellow students to switch their voter registration from their home state to their school state.

JILL GRECO, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA: If you live in a solid red or a solid blue state, then your vote is not going to necessarily help elect the next president. If you register here where in the last election, (UNINTELLIGIBLE), only won by 137 votes, then you're more likely to have an input into who wins the election.

BELGRAVE: With at least 15 swing states in the balance, their efforts may have an impact.

HUNTER WILLIAMS, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA: That's the message we're trying to drive home, that if it's not close, there can't be any shenanigans. There can't be any legal action and it's too close to risk. This is too critical of a campaign.

BELGRAVE: Nina DeJong made the switch.

NINA DEJONG, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA: I just knew that this is where my voice was going to count the most, especially with the margin of errors that are going on right now, people are saying it's 50/50 in Florida with Bush Kerry. There's no way to tell right now so I really think that every single vote in Florida is going to count.

BELGRAVE (on-camera): The Census Bureau tells CNN that 16.5 million Americans came of voting age since the 2000 election. So it's really no great surprise that a lot of attention is being focused on college campuses like the University of Florida in swing states. But the real question is whether these new young voters will show up on Election Day. Denise Belgrave, CNN, Gainesville, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFIN: Coming up the next hour on LATE EDITION, DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe and RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie among Wolf's guests at 12:00 p.m. Eastern and 9:00 Pacific.

There's been a grim discovery in Baghdad. As allied bombs rained down for a second day in Fallujah and residents of Samarra try to pick up pieces after this week's assault, Brent Sadler has all the Iraqi headlines when we come back. This is CNN LIVE SUNDAY.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GRIFFIN: Turning now to the fight for Iraq, U.S. and Iraqi forces are trying to reassert control over widespread areas of insurgent control in Iraq, in Samarra, Fallujah and elsewhere and in Baghdad, authorities are trying to identify two bodies, a bit of a mystery, one decapitated found south of the city and we get the latest from Brent Sadler with CNN. He is in Baghdad. Brent, hello.

BRENT SADLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Drew. Yes, Iraqi authorities are investigating the circumstances surrounding the discovery of two bodies south of Baghdad, one as you say that of a man whose head was severed and tied to his body. The other corpse, that of a woman whose hands were bound together shot in the back of the head. The woman reportedly blond. No identification papers on those two corpses. But doctors in Mahmoudiya (ph) Hospital south of Baghdad say they may be westerners.

Now Drew, in other developments, U.S. warplanes have again been in action, striking a suspected insurgent target in the city of Fallujah. That's west of Baghdad. Fallujah is, of course, where U.S. military officials believe that the top terror suspect in Iraq, Abu Musab al Zarqawi is operating. They say the warplanes were targeting a group of about 10-15 suspected insurgents moving weapons. But once again, hospital authorities in Fallujah say that these air strikes, three in just over the past 24 hours, have been causing rising casualties among the civilian population of Fallujah.

In other developments, Iraqi and U.S. officials are saying that there has been success in regaining central government control over Samarra, that town 60 miles north of the Iraqi capital. A wide ranging offensive involving U.S. and Iraqi forces regained control of the city, U.S. officials saying that some 125 insurgents were killed and around 88 others injured. However, residents who had begun to move around in Samarra, have been working their way, difficult ways through battle lines to get to a hospital. Some of them raising white rags to let U.S. soldiers on the ground know that they were going to reclaim or look for lost relatives. U.S. officials say that there were strenuous efforts to maintain low civilian casualties, to avoid civilian casualties but doctors say again, that the innocents of Samarra suffered some of the gunfire, machine gunfire and tank fire that took place to regain control of that city. Drew.

GRIFFIN: Brent, thanks for that live report. We're going to stay with the city of Samarra. CNN's Jane Arraf went along with the commanding general there to talk with some relieved residents.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For Iraq's interior minister, it was kind of a victory tour of Samarra's holy shrine. U.S. and Iraqi special forces took this mosque with little resistance. Interior minister Falah al Naqib told us the operation, which used more than 1,000 Iraqi security forces and about 2,000 U.S. troops, was meant to send a message.

FALAH AL NAQIB, IRAQI INTERIOR MINISTER: Iraq is back. Iraq is back. And the Iraqis are back to their real world. And you know, Iraqis they always have been very proud of themselves. We'll keep that. We will not allow those criminals to destroy our country.

ARRAF: He said the Iraqi government, with U.S. forces would continue to crack down in other cities to prepare for planned elections in January. While the streets of Samarra are calmer, they're not entirely secure yet.

UNIDENTIFIED SOLDIER: Those shots that were taken from the eastern portion on this side on the mosque were not friendly. Confirm that with the adjacent unit.

ARRAF: Soldiers still on alert for attacks and roadside bombs. U.S. forces backed by Iraqis search and secure building after building.

COL. RANDY DHAGON, U.S. ARMY: And the other two battalions, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) conducted operations in the north and two (UNINTELLIGIBLE) in the south. In addition the 7th Iraqi army battalion is...

ARRAF: What was that?

DHAGON: That was a breach charge.

ARRAF: What are they firing at?

DHAGON: They were breaching a gate.

ARRAF: Here the soldiers blasted open the door of a school. They detained a guard saying he had a gun and 1,000 rounds of ammunition. His wife says a man came and left the weapons.

(on-camera): These streets are almost completely deserted. Only soldiers and tanks are moving around. In the rest of Iraq, school started today. But here, people are staying well indoors.

(voice-over): In the mostly empty streets near the golden (UNINTELLIGIBLE) mosque, a man carried the limp body of a boy. It wasn't clear whether he was still alive. In other parts of town, few Iraqis on the street. So too the commanding general of the first infantry division, whose troops are securing Samarra.

MAJOR GEN. JOHN BATISTE, U.S. ARMY: It's good to see the people of Iraq out of Samarra back out on the streets. This is probably the first time they've been back out of their homes now since the operation started 36 hours ago. These are largely good people. They've been held hostage by a small number relatively speaking of terrorists and foreign fighters, some criminals. This is a beginning for these people, a whole new future.

ARRAF: Major General John Batiste jumped out of his Humvee to talk to some residents.

BATISTE: What do you all think about the security situation now in your city?

ARRAF: We're a city under siege, this man told him. He said they need the bridge across the Tigress River closed after attacks on U.S. and Iraqi security forces reopened. The general said it would take some time, but with the insurgents defeated, Samarra, he promised could sometime soon return to normal. Jane Arraf, CNN, Samarra, Iraq.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GRIFFIN: We're just a couple of minutes away from CNN's "RELIABLE SOURCES," and Howard Kurtz joins us with a preview of his show.

HOWARD KURTZ, HOST, "RELIABLE SOURCES": Thanks, coming up, spinning the debates. Does anyone really care what the partisans or the pundits think about who won? Did Kerry really get a jump start from his performance or are the boys and girls on the bus just looking for a close contest? Plus an update on the Dan Rather situation, all that's coming up on "Reliable Sources."

GRIFFIN: We'll look for that, Howard. CNN is your election 2004 campaign headquarters. Our coverage of the vice presidential debate begins at 7:00 Eastern on Tuesday. The debates are at 9:00. John Kerry, George Bush, hold their second debate. It's Friday and our coverage there begins at 7:00 Eastern as well.

A reunion of two National Guardsmen who nearly paid the ultimate price in Iraq. Their story ahead on CNN's SUNDAY MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) GRIFFIN: Forging a bond in war, two Iowa National Guard members have a special friendship after overcoming injury and tragedy. In Iraq, Casey Wian brings us their story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PETER BEAVER: Last month I was on the engine and this month on the ambulance.

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Peter Beaver is pleased with his new job with the fire department in Mason City, Iowa.

BEAVER: This is a buddy of mine, Chad Hayes, serviceman in Iraq.

WIAN: Beaver and Hayes share a special bond, one that goes beyond their mutual love of motorcycles. Both served with the Iowa National Guard in Iraq driving trucks. Both cheated death and both mourned the loss of a mutual friend who wasn't so lucky. Beaver didn't expect to use his paramedic skills in Iraq, but when mortars rained down on their barracks and Hayes was close to death, Beaver went to work.

BEAVER: As soon as I saw Chad, the blood in my veins literally ran cold.

WIAN: Beaver stabilized Hayes and rode with him in a helicopter to Baghdad, saving his life.

SPC CHAD HAYES, IOWA NATIONAL GUARD: I wouldn't be here today if it wasn't for him being there and being able to give me the first aid, the aid.

WIAN: A month later, it was Beaver who was injured.

BEAVER: We ended up taking a round right through the cab of our truck, and my truck partner of 10 months and good friend was killed in that attack.

WIAN: Beaver suffered a concussion and temporarily lost his hearing.

BEAVER: I ended up getting a, taking a round, piece of shrapnel right to my left hand. Ended up breaking two bones in there, ended up taking another shot to my right knee and then Forest Gump injury, took one right to my left cheek.

WIAN: Beaver recovered and came home to Iowa.

BEAVER: I guess the magnitude of that really hit me when I got home and realized that you know, my wife wasn't a widow and my son wasn't an orphan.

WIAN: The ordeal and the death of Josh Knowles (ph) has brought Beaver and Hayes closer together and given Beaver a renewed sense of purpose for his life. BEAVER: I kind of made a life out of serving others. I don't -- you don't get rich by being a soldier. You don't get rich by being a paramedic. You're reward is more in serving and helping other people and that's kind of what I've dedicated my life too.

WIAN: Both Beaver and Hayes intend to stay in the National Guard. Casey Wian, CNN reporting.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFIN: Up next, "RELIABLE SOURCES" today taking a look at presidential coverage and the spin of the debate. Then at noon, it's "LATE EDITION" with Wolf Blitzer. Among Wolf's guests, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice.

At 2:00 p.m. Eastern, "PEOPLE IN THE NEWS" today profiling vice presidential candidates Dick Cheney and John Edwards.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired October 3, 2004 - 11:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DREW GRIFFIN, CNN ANCHOR: And it is 11:00 a.m. in Washington, 8:00 a.m. at Mount St. Helens this morning. I'm Drew Griffin at CNN global headquarters here in Atlanta. Welcome to CNN LIVE SUNDAY. Ahead this hour, watching and waiting. Residents evacuate the Mount St. Helens region and scientists warn of imminent eruption. We're going to have a live report as you're looking live at the mountain this morning.
Also, Samarra after the battle. Our Jane Arraf tours the scene of intense fighting as life there begins to return to normal. And this...

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PETER BEAVER: As soon as I saw Chad, the blood in my veins literally ran cold.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFIN: The story of Peter Beaver and Chad Hayes and how war and injury in Iraq forged a friendship for life. But first a check of the top stories this hour.

Palestinian sources say six people killed in an Israeli military action in Gaza. Israel says it will press forward with attacks in order to stop rocket attacks from Palestinian areas into Israeli areas, the deadliest offensive in Gaza in four years there.

In Haiti, at least 14 people have been killed in political unrest. Supporters of ousted President Jean Bertrand Aristide demanding his return. Meantime, the Senate president in Haiti has been arrested along with two other politicians linked to Aristide.

Under tight security in Washington, World Bank and IMF officials from 184 nations are meeting at this hour. Earlier, finance officials failed to reach agreement on debt relief for the world's poorest country.

Seismic energy building toward the bursting point in Washington state, but this hour scientists are warning of a major eruption that may be imminent. As the volcano underneath Mount St. Helen's grows, the public has been cleared from around that mountain and reporter Donna Tetreault is one of them. She's joining us now on the phone in Castle Rock, Washington. Donna.

DONNA TETREAULT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Drew. Yes, I'm in Castle Rock about 35 miles from Mount St. Helen's. The alert level was raised to three and that means an eruption could happen any time. Life and property are now threatened by Mount St. Helens. Yesterday scientists reassessed the activity after a puff of steam flowed out of the creator at about 12:15 Pacific time. The earthquakes, which were up to three in magnitude and occurring two to four times per minute had stopped but a harmonic tremor was in play. A harmonic tremor moves magma to the surface. Magma is lava underground.

When there's fresh magma at the surface, an explosion or eruption will take place. The harmonic tremor lasted for about 50 minutes and then earthquakes kicked up again and have been on going since then. All this activity led to evacuations. Tourists were evacuated from Johnston Ridge where they were trying to get a glimpse of the volcano. At this point, seven miles out is a safe distance according to scientists away from the volcano. The closest town to Mount St. Helen's is Cougar and if the eruption spews up ash, people there could be affected. Air traffic could also be affected. Friday's eruption forced out steam and ash, delaying and rerouting some flights near Portland and scientists at the USGS will continue to monitor the volcano. Drew.

GRIFFIN: Again, the danger there would be ash and ash blanketing that small town of Cougar.

TETREAULT: That's exactly right and then anybody with any kind of asthmatic problems could suffer some stress there. Also, they're saying for cars and for plants, the ash could devastate some vegetation there and it wouldn't be good for cars, as well. But as far as people, people with any asthma problems, related problems would be affected.

GRIFFIN: All right, Donna, thank you for that, live at the scene. The last big eruption at Mount St. Helens left ash, did leave ash for hundreds of miles around the volcano and cost $3 billion in damage. What might happen this time if there's another explosion or eruption? CNN meteorologist Rob Marciano has a look at that. Rob.

ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Drew, good news is they do not think it's going to be to the extent of the explosion or eruption back in 1980. But I want to give you a view as to some geography and some of the topography involved in where Mount St. Helen's is and some of the largest cities that may be affected by this. We'll zoom into the Pacific northwest, the specific states included there would be Washington and Oregon. The gray areas are the metro areas, Seattle and in Portland and then St. Helen's happens to be closer to Portland to its northeast by about 50 miles.

And this, you're looking at the southern flank of the mountain itself. So it's drastically different from the northern flank. Close cities here or towns I should say, Cougar is one, right about here. That's where a lot of -- if you're going to climb this thing, you would do it on the southern flank, you get your climbing permit at Cougar and then make that day hike up the mountain. I'll swing around to the north side and you'll see the drastic difference into what this thing looks like. Back in 1980, this is the flank that erupted and blew out the entire northern part of it. And you can see the devastation. It looks like a nuclear blast zone. This is where trees were flattened. This is where the glaciers and all the snow melt ran, took mud and rock and totally tore out some of the areas just around here.

Now there's a lava dome right in the center of this thing which is from some of the minor eruptions that took place from 1980 to 1986. That is where the steam and eruptions have been coming from the past couple of days. That is where they think the magma is beginning to flow up through and break through some layers that were developed since 1998. They think this is going to be a little bit stronger. What will happen? We'll get some more debris flying through the air than we did two days ago, likely not to the extent of 1980. that's good news, because if it were, the higher level winds would then take this to Portland because what we have in the flow in the atmosphere right now is a northeast wind. That would take some of that ash into Portland. This is unlikely right now.

It's more likely that we see a more minor eruption which would mean that it wouldn't get as high in the atmosphere and things would settle down a little bit closer to St. Helen's itself which would be a pretty unpopulated area. The other big concern, Drew, would be glaciers, snow melts and run off in the form of (UNINTELLIGIBLE), or debris flow. That's typically what does most of the damage, mud, trees, rocks just ripping through river canyons and that could be a possibility, as well. But we're not into the winter season which would have more of that snow which would create more damage, as well. So right now, it looks like more unpopulated areas would be affected by this unless it's bigger than they expect and we certainly don't hope for that.

GRIFFIN: Rob, I would think that the prevailing winds would normally be west to east in that area taking it to less populated areas. Is this current wind pattern right now unusual?

MARCIANO: It is, especially for this type of year. October 1st begins the rainy season. Typically you get more of an onshore flow. At the surface, there is that more typical westerly prevailing wind. But the higher up you go, it's more of a north and northeast wind. So a smaller explosion will keep it in that lower level wind which would actually bring it to the north and east which is where the Cascade Mountains are and a less populated area. So if we get a bigger explosion, we get that more unusual pattern which may take it into more populated areas, that is an unlikely scenario at this point.

GRIFFIN: Rob, thank you. We'll be back later. Thanks a lot.

Preparing for a battle of words. Here's a look at who's doing what on the campaign trail. The vice presidential candidates getting ready for their first debate. It happens on Tuesday. Vice President Cheney in Jackson, Wyoming, John Edwards in New York. President Bush taking a break from the campaign today. He attended church in Washington after stumping in Ohio yesterday. In one event, the president used John Kerry's debate rhetoric against him saying the U.S. does not need a global test for national security decisions.

Kerry's weekend campaigning takes him to the Midwest battleground state of Ohio today in response to his debate performance, Kerry says there's a lot for supporters to be happy about.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think the reason everybody's in such a good mood and applauding is that you're thrilled to know that I can complete a sentence in 15 words or less.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRIFFIN: John Kerry can claim bragging rights in the race, at least for now. In a "Newsweek" poll, 61 percent of Americans who watched the debate declared Kerry the winner of the debate, 19 percent say Mr. Bush won, 16 percent called it a tie. That same poll shows Kerry with a slight lead over the president after the debate. 47 percent of registered voters say they'd pick Kerry for president compared to 45 percent for Mr. Bush.

Despite the polls and the popular vote, the electoral college will determine who actually becomes president. A new CNN analysis shows President Bush maintaining his lead over John Kerry in the electoral college. The president has 301 electoral votes leading in 33 states. John Kerry has 237 votes and he leads in D.C. and in 17 states. Candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

Young students may also help decide a close presidential election. There's a push on college campuses in swing states to get students to register to vote. CNN's Denise Belgrave takes us to the University of Florida.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DENISE BELGRAVE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): College students and political activism -- definite bedfellows in this presidential election.

RICHARD SCHER, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA: We've sensed more student interest in this election than we've seen in a long, long time.

BELGRAVE: And students are using every tool at their disposal, including encouraging fellow students to switch their voter registration from their home state to their school state.

JILL GRECO, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA: If you live in a solid red or a solid blue state, then your vote is not going to necessarily help elect the next president. If you register here where in the last election, (UNINTELLIGIBLE), only won by 137 votes, then you're more likely to have an input into who wins the election.

BELGRAVE: With at least 15 swing states in the balance, their efforts may have an impact.

HUNTER WILLIAMS, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA: That's the message we're trying to drive home, that if it's not close, there can't be any shenanigans. There can't be any legal action and it's too close to risk. This is too critical of a campaign.

BELGRAVE: Nina DeJong made the switch.

NINA DEJONG, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA: I just knew that this is where my voice was going to count the most, especially with the margin of errors that are going on right now, people are saying it's 50/50 in Florida with Bush Kerry. There's no way to tell right now so I really think that every single vote in Florida is going to count.

BELGRAVE (on-camera): The Census Bureau tells CNN that 16.5 million Americans came of voting age since the 2000 election. So it's really no great surprise that a lot of attention is being focused on college campuses like the University of Florida in swing states. But the real question is whether these new young voters will show up on Election Day. Denise Belgrave, CNN, Gainesville, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFIN: Coming up the next hour on LATE EDITION, DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe and RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie among Wolf's guests at 12:00 p.m. Eastern and 9:00 Pacific.

There's been a grim discovery in Baghdad. As allied bombs rained down for a second day in Fallujah and residents of Samarra try to pick up pieces after this week's assault, Brent Sadler has all the Iraqi headlines when we come back. This is CNN LIVE SUNDAY.

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GRIFFIN: Turning now to the fight for Iraq, U.S. and Iraqi forces are trying to reassert control over widespread areas of insurgent control in Iraq, in Samarra, Fallujah and elsewhere and in Baghdad, authorities are trying to identify two bodies, a bit of a mystery, one decapitated found south of the city and we get the latest from Brent Sadler with CNN. He is in Baghdad. Brent, hello.

BRENT SADLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Drew. Yes, Iraqi authorities are investigating the circumstances surrounding the discovery of two bodies south of Baghdad, one as you say that of a man whose head was severed and tied to his body. The other corpse, that of a woman whose hands were bound together shot in the back of the head. The woman reportedly blond. No identification papers on those two corpses. But doctors in Mahmoudiya (ph) Hospital south of Baghdad say they may be westerners.

Now Drew, in other developments, U.S. warplanes have again been in action, striking a suspected insurgent target in the city of Fallujah. That's west of Baghdad. Fallujah is, of course, where U.S. military officials believe that the top terror suspect in Iraq, Abu Musab al Zarqawi is operating. They say the warplanes were targeting a group of about 10-15 suspected insurgents moving weapons. But once again, hospital authorities in Fallujah say that these air strikes, three in just over the past 24 hours, have been causing rising casualties among the civilian population of Fallujah.

In other developments, Iraqi and U.S. officials are saying that there has been success in regaining central government control over Samarra, that town 60 miles north of the Iraqi capital. A wide ranging offensive involving U.S. and Iraqi forces regained control of the city, U.S. officials saying that some 125 insurgents were killed and around 88 others injured. However, residents who had begun to move around in Samarra, have been working their way, difficult ways through battle lines to get to a hospital. Some of them raising white rags to let U.S. soldiers on the ground know that they were going to reclaim or look for lost relatives. U.S. officials say that there were strenuous efforts to maintain low civilian casualties, to avoid civilian casualties but doctors say again, that the innocents of Samarra suffered some of the gunfire, machine gunfire and tank fire that took place to regain control of that city. Drew.

GRIFFIN: Brent, thanks for that live report. We're going to stay with the city of Samarra. CNN's Jane Arraf went along with the commanding general there to talk with some relieved residents.

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JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For Iraq's interior minister, it was kind of a victory tour of Samarra's holy shrine. U.S. and Iraqi special forces took this mosque with little resistance. Interior minister Falah al Naqib told us the operation, which used more than 1,000 Iraqi security forces and about 2,000 U.S. troops, was meant to send a message.

FALAH AL NAQIB, IRAQI INTERIOR MINISTER: Iraq is back. Iraq is back. And the Iraqis are back to their real world. And you know, Iraqis they always have been very proud of themselves. We'll keep that. We will not allow those criminals to destroy our country.

ARRAF: He said the Iraqi government, with U.S. forces would continue to crack down in other cities to prepare for planned elections in January. While the streets of Samarra are calmer, they're not entirely secure yet.

UNIDENTIFIED SOLDIER: Those shots that were taken from the eastern portion on this side on the mosque were not friendly. Confirm that with the adjacent unit.

ARRAF: Soldiers still on alert for attacks and roadside bombs. U.S. forces backed by Iraqis search and secure building after building.

COL. RANDY DHAGON, U.S. ARMY: And the other two battalions, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) conducted operations in the north and two (UNINTELLIGIBLE) in the south. In addition the 7th Iraqi army battalion is...

ARRAF: What was that?

DHAGON: That was a breach charge.

ARRAF: What are they firing at?

DHAGON: They were breaching a gate.

ARRAF: Here the soldiers blasted open the door of a school. They detained a guard saying he had a gun and 1,000 rounds of ammunition. His wife says a man came and left the weapons.

(on-camera): These streets are almost completely deserted. Only soldiers and tanks are moving around. In the rest of Iraq, school started today. But here, people are staying well indoors.

(voice-over): In the mostly empty streets near the golden (UNINTELLIGIBLE) mosque, a man carried the limp body of a boy. It wasn't clear whether he was still alive. In other parts of town, few Iraqis on the street. So too the commanding general of the first infantry division, whose troops are securing Samarra.

MAJOR GEN. JOHN BATISTE, U.S. ARMY: It's good to see the people of Iraq out of Samarra back out on the streets. This is probably the first time they've been back out of their homes now since the operation started 36 hours ago. These are largely good people. They've been held hostage by a small number relatively speaking of terrorists and foreign fighters, some criminals. This is a beginning for these people, a whole new future.

ARRAF: Major General John Batiste jumped out of his Humvee to talk to some residents.

BATISTE: What do you all think about the security situation now in your city?

ARRAF: We're a city under siege, this man told him. He said they need the bridge across the Tigress River closed after attacks on U.S. and Iraqi security forces reopened. The general said it would take some time, but with the insurgents defeated, Samarra, he promised could sometime soon return to normal. Jane Arraf, CNN, Samarra, Iraq.

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GRIFFIN: We're just a couple of minutes away from CNN's "RELIABLE SOURCES," and Howard Kurtz joins us with a preview of his show.

HOWARD KURTZ, HOST, "RELIABLE SOURCES": Thanks, coming up, spinning the debates. Does anyone really care what the partisans or the pundits think about who won? Did Kerry really get a jump start from his performance or are the boys and girls on the bus just looking for a close contest? Plus an update on the Dan Rather situation, all that's coming up on "Reliable Sources."

GRIFFIN: We'll look for that, Howard. CNN is your election 2004 campaign headquarters. Our coverage of the vice presidential debate begins at 7:00 Eastern on Tuesday. The debates are at 9:00. John Kerry, George Bush, hold their second debate. It's Friday and our coverage there begins at 7:00 Eastern as well.

A reunion of two National Guardsmen who nearly paid the ultimate price in Iraq. Their story ahead on CNN's SUNDAY MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) GRIFFIN: Forging a bond in war, two Iowa National Guard members have a special friendship after overcoming injury and tragedy. In Iraq, Casey Wian brings us their story.

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PETER BEAVER: Last month I was on the engine and this month on the ambulance.

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Peter Beaver is pleased with his new job with the fire department in Mason City, Iowa.

BEAVER: This is a buddy of mine, Chad Hayes, serviceman in Iraq.

WIAN: Beaver and Hayes share a special bond, one that goes beyond their mutual love of motorcycles. Both served with the Iowa National Guard in Iraq driving trucks. Both cheated death and both mourned the loss of a mutual friend who wasn't so lucky. Beaver didn't expect to use his paramedic skills in Iraq, but when mortars rained down on their barracks and Hayes was close to death, Beaver went to work.

BEAVER: As soon as I saw Chad, the blood in my veins literally ran cold.

WIAN: Beaver stabilized Hayes and rode with him in a helicopter to Baghdad, saving his life.

SPC CHAD HAYES, IOWA NATIONAL GUARD: I wouldn't be here today if it wasn't for him being there and being able to give me the first aid, the aid.

WIAN: A month later, it was Beaver who was injured.

BEAVER: We ended up taking a round right through the cab of our truck, and my truck partner of 10 months and good friend was killed in that attack.

WIAN: Beaver suffered a concussion and temporarily lost his hearing.

BEAVER: I ended up getting a, taking a round, piece of shrapnel right to my left hand. Ended up breaking two bones in there, ended up taking another shot to my right knee and then Forest Gump injury, took one right to my left cheek.

WIAN: Beaver recovered and came home to Iowa.

BEAVER: I guess the magnitude of that really hit me when I got home and realized that you know, my wife wasn't a widow and my son wasn't an orphan.

WIAN: The ordeal and the death of Josh Knowles (ph) has brought Beaver and Hayes closer together and given Beaver a renewed sense of purpose for his life. BEAVER: I kind of made a life out of serving others. I don't -- you don't get rich by being a soldier. You don't get rich by being a paramedic. You're reward is more in serving and helping other people and that's kind of what I've dedicated my life too.

WIAN: Both Beaver and Hayes intend to stay in the National Guard. Casey Wian, CNN reporting.

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GRIFFIN: Up next, "RELIABLE SOURCES" today taking a look at presidential coverage and the spin of the debate. Then at noon, it's "LATE EDITION" with Wolf Blitzer. Among Wolf's guests, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice.

At 2:00 p.m. Eastern, "PEOPLE IN THE NEWS" today profiling vice presidential candidates Dick Cheney and John Edwards.

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