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CNN Live Sunday

Kerry Speaks at Baptist Church in Ohio; Bush Campaigns in Florida; Experts Examine Tape of Alleged al Qaeda Operative

Aired October 31, 2004 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: It is 11 a.m. in Miami and Dayton, Ohio, both stops on the campaign trail today. Hello, I'm Fredricka Whitfield at the CNN Center in Atlanta. Welcome to CNN LIVE SUNDAY, just two days away from election day.
Ahead this hour, the battle for the Oval Office and no rest for the weary. President Bush is on the trail in two big battlegrounds: Florida and Ohio. Those two states are prime real estate for Senator John Kerry, as well.

And pigskin picks of a different sort. What do the Washington Redskins have to do with who wins the highest office in the land? Those stories straight ahead.

But first a look at the stop stories.

The Japanese government confirms a body found in Baghdad yesterday is that of a Japanese hostage. The victim had been kidnapped on Tuesday. His body was found in a Baghdad neighborhood wrapped in an American flag with his head resting on top. His captors had threatened to behead him unless Japan pulled its troops out of Iraq.

A new warning to insurgents today from Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi. He says efforts to end the conflict in Fallujah peacefully have entered their final phase and his patience is running thin, he says. American forces launched new attacks on militants in the area yesterday, using ground and air assaults.

For the third straight day, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is undergoing medical tests in a Paris hospital. However, some strong words today from Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. He told his cabinet that Arafat will not be buried in Jerusalem when he dies as long as Sharon is prime minister.

With only two days until voters head to the polls, the presidential candidates are fighting for each and every vote in the battleground states. President Bush today is in Florida, the state that decided the 2000 election. He'll ask for voters in Miami, Tampa and Gainesville to support him.

The president also campaigns in Cincinnati, Ohio, today.

And Senator John Kerry starting his campaign today in Dayton, Ohio. Kerry's next stop is the Granite State. He'll hold a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire. The senator ends his campaign in Tampa, Florida.

Well, praise and the polls. Senator John Kerry spoke with likely voters at a Baptist church in Dayton, Ohio, this morning. CNN's Kelly Wallace is live from Dayton with some of the details -- Kelly.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Fredricka.

Well, I can tell you that aides are feeling quite good. We are told that calls went out to state coordinators throughout the country pretty much in the middle of the night to check in, and that by and large, we're told the state coordinators saying they are confident they can deliver the vote, get out the vote in the numbers needed for John Kerry to be victorious on Tuesday.

From now until Tuesday, we understand the senator focused more on an inspirational message, again trying to convince those undecided voters who still, despite all they have heard and all they seen, have not made up their mind.

The senator starting first attending Catholic mass. The senator a Catholic trying to court Catholic voters. But then he came here to the Shiloh Baptist Church here in Dayton, and here trying to reach out a bit to African-American voters.

A very funny thing happened. The presiding reverend, who was leading the service, kept referring to Senator Kerry as Senator Kennedy. He did it once; he did it twice. He did it another time. Senator Kerry didn't seem to mind. After all, he's hoping to become the next Massachusetts senator to make it to the White House.

In his remarks, Senator Kerry talking about, in his words lifting up the middle class and also about bringing the country together.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We are going to work to do what we need to do to heal the wounds of this country, to be one America, not just red states and blue states, but red, white, blue for every single American. We're going to get the job done, help make this happen. Let's walk in the footsteps of the Lord.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WALLACE: And of course, in these final days, every movement by the candidate carefully choreographed. The senator earlier tossing around a football with his aides, trying to show his regular guy image, again, trying to reach out to more and more of these undecided voters.

And in that regard, Fredricka, the senator from here heading, as you said, to New Hampshire, and there he will get a big endorsement in his eyes. He will be endorsed pretty much by the management of the Boston Red Sox. Two owners and the team's general manager will be there with him, formally endorsing his candidacy -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: And Kelly, you talk about everything being very carefully choreographed. Kerry is maintaining his position on the war on terrorism, but he is very carefully not talking specifically about the recent Osama bin Laden tape.

Talk about the strategy of that for us.

WALLACE: Well, the strategy really twofold, Fredricka. No. 1, this campaign does not want the final 48 hours to be all about that Osama bin Laden tape, because the senator's own advisers believe if the discussion is about the war on terrorism, only about that and about the bin Laden tape, that could play to the president's strength.

Also, there is a sense of not wanting to be seen as playing politics with this issue with the most hated man in America. So what -- you won't hear the senator ever again really talk about the tape per se. You'll hear him talk about how he believes he can keep the country safer, what he will do differently.

But aides are very much in these final hours, Fredricka, trying to move the dialogue also back to domestic issues, where Senator Kerry does seem to hold an advantage over President Bush.

WHITFIELD: All right. Kelly Wallace with the Kerry campaign in Ohio before it then makes its way over to New Hampshire. Thanks so much.

Well, Florida is another key battleground state. And that's where President Bush is placing lots of attention this weekend. He visits the Coconut Grove area of Miami today.

CNN's Dana Bash is on the campaign trail with the president, and she joins us live, as well.

Hello, Dana.

DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Fredricka.

Well, President Bush is going to get here to Coconut Grove momentarily. But earlier today, the president started in Miami, and he actually started by going to church.

Now, Mr. Bush is not Catholic, but he did attend a Catholic church, a Catholic mass with his brother Jeb, and according to reports from that, it was quite a political event, where the monsignor talked about the fact that he is grateful for the president signing a partial birth abortion ban and talked about the need to stop stem cell research and euthanasia, as he called it, mercy killing. So the president going to that mass this morning.

The Catholic vote is very important to the president in all of these battleground states. Mr. Bush won the Catholic vote in Florida by 52 percent last time around. He needs it to -- needs to boost that, of course, as he does with all of the sectors of the population.

But here in Coconut Grove, this is going to be the first of three stops for the president today. Florida is, of course, important. It's sort of the mother of all battleground states. But it's becoming increasingly important, Fredricka, for the president as it looks like it's becoming a little bit less likely that he is going to take Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania has 21 electoral votes. This state has 27, and of course, then there's the third, Ohio, that everybody is looking at. So Mr. Bush is going to be courting the Hispanic voters here in Coconut Grove. He is going to be getting out the base later as he goes up north to Gainesville, and then he goes to Tampa -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: And Dana, like Kerry, President Bush is not specifically talking about the Osama bin Laden tape, but he's not avoiding the topic of terrorism overall either, is he?

BASH: That's right. Well, he is not -- certainly not avoiding the topic of terrorism. Actually to the contrary. He is talking about, like he has, really, all along, the need to -- for people to remember that this is the first election since September 11, and the importance from his point of view of his leadership after 9/11 and the difference between his leadership and John Kerry's.

But certainly he is not talking about the tape at all. He is really trying to avoid that since he just referenced it briefly on Friday night. Essentially, his aides say there's no need to. People understand that the tape is out there. They understand the president's leadership style, and they understand the message he's trying to give. And him talking about the tape, privately, they say, would just be overtly politicizing something that they're trying to not do overtly -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. Dana Bash, traveling with the president, to appear in the Coconut Grove section of Miami momentarily. Thanks so much.

Well, even though neither candidate is commenting specifically on the Osama bin Laden tape, the tape has pushed the focus of terrorism back into the forefront on the political campaigning in these final days.

Republicans don't see bin Laden's menacing words as trouble for the president. Senator John McCain, who's been campaigning with the president, says the tape actually helps Mr. Bush. McCain says Americans believe President Bush is doing a good job leading the war on terror.

And despite the bin Laden tape, the government is reassuring Americans it is safe to vote come Tuesday. Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge says the nation's terror level will not be raised at this time. The threat level for most of the nation is now at yellow, which means an elevated risk of attack.

However, officials do reserve the right to raise it at anytime. New York city, parts of northern New Jersey and Washington, D.C. remain at orange or a high threat level.

A video of another sort is catching the attention of federal authorities. The FBI web site has video of a man claiming to be an American agent of al Qaeda. On it, the man warns of a large-scale attack.

And as our national security correspondent, David Ensor, reports, the tape raises more questions than answers.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID ENSOR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): After a technical analysis by the CIA, U.S. intelligence officials say they cannot authenticate the tape. They cannot say whether the man is really from al Qaeda. But they also cannot rule it out.

On the tape, obtained by ABC News in Pakistan, a man calling himself Azzam the American, claiming to have been born in the U.S., speaks in English for 75 minutes with much of his face covered. He threatens a new wave of terror attacks against the United States at any moment.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People of America, I remind you of the weighty words of our leaders, Sheikh Osama bin Laden and Dr. Ayman al- Zawahiri, that what took place on September 11 was but the opening salvo of the global war on America and that, Allah willing, the magnitude and ferocity of what is coming your way will make you forget all about September 11.

ENSOR: U.S. officials note that in the corner is the logo of al Sahad productions, the same identification that has appeared on some other al Qaeda tapes, but they caution that anyone could have put that there.

ABC News says the tape was obtained in Waziristan, the region of Pakistan near the Afghan border. Copies have been distributed, sources say, to President Bush, Attorney General John Ashcroft, FBI Director Mueller and former CIA Director George Tenet, as well as nine others mentioned by the speaker on the tape.

(on camera) U.S. intelligence officials warn that this tape may or may not be authentic. With the presidential election just days away, they are wary of a possible trick by an impostor. Word of the tape's existence leaked out on the Internet Wednesday. Given the timing, some in this town suspect that leak could have been politically motivated.

David Ensor, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen will have more on the recent terror tapes. He joins Wolf Blitzer on "LATE EDITION." That's at noon eastern, 9 Pacific today.

Ahead, U.S. forces prepare for a final assault in Fallujah. Find out what might spark it.

Also, will it be rain or shine on the election lines? Rob Marciano will have your election day forecast.

And this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALLAN LICHTMAN, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY: I believe that there are presidential predictors other than polling that are more accurate than reliable than the polls.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WHITFIELD: Well, everything from the length of hemlines to the Washington Redskins' weekend performance has been used to predict who will win the presidency. Unusual way to pick a winner, coming up later on CNN LIVE SUNDAY.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: In the fight for Iraq, the U.S. military says a suicide car bomber is responsible for killing eight Marines and wounding ten others Saturday. It was the deadliest single attack on U.S. forces in six months. The bombing took place near Abu Ghraib prison.

And Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, warns time is running out for a peaceful solution in Fallujah. U.S. Marines are poised for a major assault against Islamic militants in the city, if and when Allawi gives the final order.

The brutal killing of a Japanese hostage held by militants in Iraq won't change Japan's commitment to that country. The headless body of Shosei Koda was found in Baghdad yesterday.

CNN's Atika Shubert has more from Tokyo.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ATIKA SHUBERT, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The news came early Sunday morning. Hostage Shosei Koda, shown in this video released by his kidnapers on Tuesday, had been found in a Baghdad neighborhood beheaded.

The especially brutal killing sent an unmistakable message to the Japanese public: This is the price Japan pays for being a U.S. ally in Iraq. But Japan's prime minister remains resolute. Japan will not withdraw troops from Iraq.

JUNICHIRO KOIZUMI, JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER (through translator): We should not succumb to terrorism or such a group trying to block progress in order to help the people of Iraq rebuild their country.

SHUBERT: There are 550 Japanese troops on the ground in Iraq for reconstruction efforts only. No combat. But that has not stopped Japanese troops and civilians from becoming targets. Japanese troops are due to return in December.

Before Koda's killing, the prime minister said had he hoped to extend their stay in Iraq. That goes against public opinion in Japan. A majority of people here oppose the war in Iraq and oppose sending troops to Iraq. A poll taken before the hostage taking shows more than 60 percent want the troops to come home by the end of the year.

(on camera) Most Japanese supported the government's resolve not to give into terrorist's demands, but this killing poses a question: should Japan keep troops in longer in Iraq, and would that mean endangering more Japanese nationals like Shosei Koda?

Atika Shubert, CNN, Tokyo.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: Three U.N. election workers are being held by Islamic militants in Afghanistan.

Video of the hostages, two women and a man, was aired on an Al Jazeera Television. The Arab news network reports a group calling itself the Muslim Army is demanding that the U.N. leave Afghanistan. It also insists that all prisoners held in Afghanistan and at Guantanamo Bay be released.

Straight ahead, calling all daughters. Both candidates turn to family to help as the campaigns move into the final hours.

CNN LIVE SUNDAY returns right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: Well, daughters, fathers and politics headline our look across America this hour.

Putting a feminine touch on the Democratic presidential campaign in Tampa, Florida, Saturday, daughters of prominent Democrats stood up to the microphone to sell the Kerry/Edwards ticket.

Among them, Chelsea Clinton making her first political speech, Vanessa Kerry, Kate Edwards and Karenna Gore Schiff. Caroline Kennedy was also on hand.

The Bush twins carried the Bush/Cheney into New Jersey, where the presidential race is tightening. Barbara and Jenna Bush praised their father's values, calling him a champion of women around the world.

A clear sunny day generally means pretty high voter turnout. Let's find out from Rob Marciano who across the country gets to enjoy that on Tuesday.

(WEATHER REPORT)

WHITFIELD: Happy Halloween.

Well, as the clock ticks toward election day, the candidates and the media are in sleep-deprived overdrive. "RELIABLE SOURCES" is coming up in about eight minutes. And here's Howie Kurtz with a preview.

Hello.

HOWARD KURTZ, HOST, "RELIABLE SOURCES": Hello, Fredricka.

Coming up, CBS's Leslie Stahl joins us for a look at the frenzied media coverage of the final days of this presidential campaign.

The Osama bin Laden tapes. Should the networks be turning over their airtime to a terrorist?

That "New York Times" story of missing Iraqi ammunition. Overdue or overblown?

And new numbers suggest a pro-Kerry tilt in the mainstream media.

All that and more, next on "RELIABLE SOURCE."

WHITFIELD: All right. Looking forward to that. Thanks a lot, Howie.

Stay with CNN, your election 2004 headquarters. Monday night at 8 Eastern, the battle for the White House goes through your backyard, and CNN is there. Paula Zahn hosts a town meeting live from Florida.

Then on Tuesday night, Wolf Blitzer and the entire election team kick off CNN's special election night coverage beginning at 7 Eastern, live from the NASDAQ headquarters in New York.

But first, we might know the name of the next American president as early as tonight if these predictions are any indicator. That answer will come from the Washington Redskins, of all folks.

Stick around. We'll explain.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: Well, forget the polls and the furrowed pundits. When it comes to politics, maybe the answer to the winning presidential ticket lies in sports and sports bars.

Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry stopped at a bar on his way out of Des Moines, Iowa, Saturday taking a regular guy kind of moment. Kerry ordered a round of beers and chatted for about 15 minutes before heading on his way.

President Bush, on the other hand, took time out to make fun of his opponent during an unannounced stop in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Saturday. He told a couple dozen supporters how nice it was to be as the Lambeau Field, emphasizing the "beau".

Last summer Kerry had confused Lambeau Field with Lambert Field, the name of the St. Louis airport.

Lambeau Field is home to the Green Bay Packers, but when the Packers take on the Washington Redskins today, President Bush might want to balance his enthusiasm for the game.

CNN's Tom Foreman explores which candidate stands a sporting chance in this presidential race.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): No one should celebrate the Red Sox more than John Kerry, because when the American League wins the World Series, as his hometown Sox finally did, 60 percent of the time, the Democrats win the White House.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're on our way! We're on our way!

FOREMAN: There are many presidential predictors. Long hemlines favor Republicans; good Bordeaux toasts the Democrats. But no one knows the serious alternatives better than presidential historian Allan Lichtman.

LICHTMAN: I believe that there are predictors other than polling that are more accurate and reliable than the polls.

FOREMAN: Lichtman has devised 13 questions about presidential performance, social attitudes and the military. He says the answers are keys to predicting the winner, and they are pointing to Bush. He's been right for five elections.

LICHTMAN: So my system looks at the big picture: foreign policy successes and failures, the long and short-term economy, scandals, social unrest, third parties. And is able to come up with a prediction a year or even more out from the election.

FOREMAN: On the Iowa electronic market and trade sports web sites, millions of Americans bet money on who will win, and Bush is substantially favored there, too.

Koleman Strumph is an economist who studies these markets.

KOLEMAN STRUMPH, ECONOMIST: I think one of the reasons these markets work so well is they take advantage of the wisdom of a lot of people where the people who have very strong views can make their intensity of views -- they can express it through this very interesting mechanism of investment.

FOREMAN: History backs him up. A century ago, betting on the presidency was hugely popular, front-page news. And long before polling, the betting markets were almost always correct.

Still, predicting the presidency is tricky. You can flip a coin and be right 50 percent of the time.

(on camera) But a few odd heads or tails, and your success rate could soar to 70 or 80 percent. So you see, any pattern that mimics election performance could be called a predictor.

But then there are the Redskins. (voice-over) For 70 years, every time the Washington Redskins have won their game before the election, the incumbent party has kept the White House. They play the Packers on Halloween.

Go Pack, go Skins. Go figure.

Tom Foreman, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: That's some formula.

More ahead on CNN SUNDAY. In a few moments, at the bottom of the hour, "RELIABLE SOURCES," today taking a closer look at the sprint to the finish for the candidates and the media.

At noon, it's "LATE EDITION" with Wolf Blitzer. Among Wolf's guests, Vice President Cheney's wife, Lynn Cheney.

At 2 p.m. Eastern, it's "PEOPLE IN THE NEWS," today profiling Laura Bush and Teresa Heinz Kerry.

But first, a check of the headlines.

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Aired October 31, 2004 - 11:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: It is 11 a.m. in Miami and Dayton, Ohio, both stops on the campaign trail today. Hello, I'm Fredricka Whitfield at the CNN Center in Atlanta. Welcome to CNN LIVE SUNDAY, just two days away from election day.
Ahead this hour, the battle for the Oval Office and no rest for the weary. President Bush is on the trail in two big battlegrounds: Florida and Ohio. Those two states are prime real estate for Senator John Kerry, as well.

And pigskin picks of a different sort. What do the Washington Redskins have to do with who wins the highest office in the land? Those stories straight ahead.

But first a look at the stop stories.

The Japanese government confirms a body found in Baghdad yesterday is that of a Japanese hostage. The victim had been kidnapped on Tuesday. His body was found in a Baghdad neighborhood wrapped in an American flag with his head resting on top. His captors had threatened to behead him unless Japan pulled its troops out of Iraq.

A new warning to insurgents today from Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi. He says efforts to end the conflict in Fallujah peacefully have entered their final phase and his patience is running thin, he says. American forces launched new attacks on militants in the area yesterday, using ground and air assaults.

For the third straight day, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is undergoing medical tests in a Paris hospital. However, some strong words today from Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. He told his cabinet that Arafat will not be buried in Jerusalem when he dies as long as Sharon is prime minister.

With only two days until voters head to the polls, the presidential candidates are fighting for each and every vote in the battleground states. President Bush today is in Florida, the state that decided the 2000 election. He'll ask for voters in Miami, Tampa and Gainesville to support him.

The president also campaigns in Cincinnati, Ohio, today.

And Senator John Kerry starting his campaign today in Dayton, Ohio. Kerry's next stop is the Granite State. He'll hold a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire. The senator ends his campaign in Tampa, Florida.

Well, praise and the polls. Senator John Kerry spoke with likely voters at a Baptist church in Dayton, Ohio, this morning. CNN's Kelly Wallace is live from Dayton with some of the details -- Kelly.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Fredricka.

Well, I can tell you that aides are feeling quite good. We are told that calls went out to state coordinators throughout the country pretty much in the middle of the night to check in, and that by and large, we're told the state coordinators saying they are confident they can deliver the vote, get out the vote in the numbers needed for John Kerry to be victorious on Tuesday.

From now until Tuesday, we understand the senator focused more on an inspirational message, again trying to convince those undecided voters who still, despite all they have heard and all they seen, have not made up their mind.

The senator starting first attending Catholic mass. The senator a Catholic trying to court Catholic voters. But then he came here to the Shiloh Baptist Church here in Dayton, and here trying to reach out a bit to African-American voters.

A very funny thing happened. The presiding reverend, who was leading the service, kept referring to Senator Kerry as Senator Kennedy. He did it once; he did it twice. He did it another time. Senator Kerry didn't seem to mind. After all, he's hoping to become the next Massachusetts senator to make it to the White House.

In his remarks, Senator Kerry talking about, in his words lifting up the middle class and also about bringing the country together.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We are going to work to do what we need to do to heal the wounds of this country, to be one America, not just red states and blue states, but red, white, blue for every single American. We're going to get the job done, help make this happen. Let's walk in the footsteps of the Lord.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WALLACE: And of course, in these final days, every movement by the candidate carefully choreographed. The senator earlier tossing around a football with his aides, trying to show his regular guy image, again, trying to reach out to more and more of these undecided voters.

And in that regard, Fredricka, the senator from here heading, as you said, to New Hampshire, and there he will get a big endorsement in his eyes. He will be endorsed pretty much by the management of the Boston Red Sox. Two owners and the team's general manager will be there with him, formally endorsing his candidacy -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: And Kelly, you talk about everything being very carefully choreographed. Kerry is maintaining his position on the war on terrorism, but he is very carefully not talking specifically about the recent Osama bin Laden tape.

Talk about the strategy of that for us.

WALLACE: Well, the strategy really twofold, Fredricka. No. 1, this campaign does not want the final 48 hours to be all about that Osama bin Laden tape, because the senator's own advisers believe if the discussion is about the war on terrorism, only about that and about the bin Laden tape, that could play to the president's strength.

Also, there is a sense of not wanting to be seen as playing politics with this issue with the most hated man in America. So what -- you won't hear the senator ever again really talk about the tape per se. You'll hear him talk about how he believes he can keep the country safer, what he will do differently.

But aides are very much in these final hours, Fredricka, trying to move the dialogue also back to domestic issues, where Senator Kerry does seem to hold an advantage over President Bush.

WHITFIELD: All right. Kelly Wallace with the Kerry campaign in Ohio before it then makes its way over to New Hampshire. Thanks so much.

Well, Florida is another key battleground state. And that's where President Bush is placing lots of attention this weekend. He visits the Coconut Grove area of Miami today.

CNN's Dana Bash is on the campaign trail with the president, and she joins us live, as well.

Hello, Dana.

DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Fredricka.

Well, President Bush is going to get here to Coconut Grove momentarily. But earlier today, the president started in Miami, and he actually started by going to church.

Now, Mr. Bush is not Catholic, but he did attend a Catholic church, a Catholic mass with his brother Jeb, and according to reports from that, it was quite a political event, where the monsignor talked about the fact that he is grateful for the president signing a partial birth abortion ban and talked about the need to stop stem cell research and euthanasia, as he called it, mercy killing. So the president going to that mass this morning.

The Catholic vote is very important to the president in all of these battleground states. Mr. Bush won the Catholic vote in Florida by 52 percent last time around. He needs it to -- needs to boost that, of course, as he does with all of the sectors of the population.

But here in Coconut Grove, this is going to be the first of three stops for the president today. Florida is, of course, important. It's sort of the mother of all battleground states. But it's becoming increasingly important, Fredricka, for the president as it looks like it's becoming a little bit less likely that he is going to take Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania has 21 electoral votes. This state has 27, and of course, then there's the third, Ohio, that everybody is looking at. So Mr. Bush is going to be courting the Hispanic voters here in Coconut Grove. He is going to be getting out the base later as he goes up north to Gainesville, and then he goes to Tampa -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: And Dana, like Kerry, President Bush is not specifically talking about the Osama bin Laden tape, but he's not avoiding the topic of terrorism overall either, is he?

BASH: That's right. Well, he is not -- certainly not avoiding the topic of terrorism. Actually to the contrary. He is talking about, like he has, really, all along, the need to -- for people to remember that this is the first election since September 11, and the importance from his point of view of his leadership after 9/11 and the difference between his leadership and John Kerry's.

But certainly he is not talking about the tape at all. He is really trying to avoid that since he just referenced it briefly on Friday night. Essentially, his aides say there's no need to. People understand that the tape is out there. They understand the president's leadership style, and they understand the message he's trying to give. And him talking about the tape, privately, they say, would just be overtly politicizing something that they're trying to not do overtly -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. Dana Bash, traveling with the president, to appear in the Coconut Grove section of Miami momentarily. Thanks so much.

Well, even though neither candidate is commenting specifically on the Osama bin Laden tape, the tape has pushed the focus of terrorism back into the forefront on the political campaigning in these final days.

Republicans don't see bin Laden's menacing words as trouble for the president. Senator John McCain, who's been campaigning with the president, says the tape actually helps Mr. Bush. McCain says Americans believe President Bush is doing a good job leading the war on terror.

And despite the bin Laden tape, the government is reassuring Americans it is safe to vote come Tuesday. Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge says the nation's terror level will not be raised at this time. The threat level for most of the nation is now at yellow, which means an elevated risk of attack.

However, officials do reserve the right to raise it at anytime. New York city, parts of northern New Jersey and Washington, D.C. remain at orange or a high threat level.

A video of another sort is catching the attention of federal authorities. The FBI web site has video of a man claiming to be an American agent of al Qaeda. On it, the man warns of a large-scale attack.

And as our national security correspondent, David Ensor, reports, the tape raises more questions than answers.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID ENSOR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): After a technical analysis by the CIA, U.S. intelligence officials say they cannot authenticate the tape. They cannot say whether the man is really from al Qaeda. But they also cannot rule it out.

On the tape, obtained by ABC News in Pakistan, a man calling himself Azzam the American, claiming to have been born in the U.S., speaks in English for 75 minutes with much of his face covered. He threatens a new wave of terror attacks against the United States at any moment.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People of America, I remind you of the weighty words of our leaders, Sheikh Osama bin Laden and Dr. Ayman al- Zawahiri, that what took place on September 11 was but the opening salvo of the global war on America and that, Allah willing, the magnitude and ferocity of what is coming your way will make you forget all about September 11.

ENSOR: U.S. officials note that in the corner is the logo of al Sahad productions, the same identification that has appeared on some other al Qaeda tapes, but they caution that anyone could have put that there.

ABC News says the tape was obtained in Waziristan, the region of Pakistan near the Afghan border. Copies have been distributed, sources say, to President Bush, Attorney General John Ashcroft, FBI Director Mueller and former CIA Director George Tenet, as well as nine others mentioned by the speaker on the tape.

(on camera) U.S. intelligence officials warn that this tape may or may not be authentic. With the presidential election just days away, they are wary of a possible trick by an impostor. Word of the tape's existence leaked out on the Internet Wednesday. Given the timing, some in this town suspect that leak could have been politically motivated.

David Ensor, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen will have more on the recent terror tapes. He joins Wolf Blitzer on "LATE EDITION." That's at noon eastern, 9 Pacific today.

Ahead, U.S. forces prepare for a final assault in Fallujah. Find out what might spark it.

Also, will it be rain or shine on the election lines? Rob Marciano will have your election day forecast.

And this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALLAN LICHTMAN, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY: I believe that there are presidential predictors other than polling that are more accurate than reliable than the polls.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WHITFIELD: Well, everything from the length of hemlines to the Washington Redskins' weekend performance has been used to predict who will win the presidency. Unusual way to pick a winner, coming up later on CNN LIVE SUNDAY.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: In the fight for Iraq, the U.S. military says a suicide car bomber is responsible for killing eight Marines and wounding ten others Saturday. It was the deadliest single attack on U.S. forces in six months. The bombing took place near Abu Ghraib prison.

And Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, warns time is running out for a peaceful solution in Fallujah. U.S. Marines are poised for a major assault against Islamic militants in the city, if and when Allawi gives the final order.

The brutal killing of a Japanese hostage held by militants in Iraq won't change Japan's commitment to that country. The headless body of Shosei Koda was found in Baghdad yesterday.

CNN's Atika Shubert has more from Tokyo.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ATIKA SHUBERT, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The news came early Sunday morning. Hostage Shosei Koda, shown in this video released by his kidnapers on Tuesday, had been found in a Baghdad neighborhood beheaded.

The especially brutal killing sent an unmistakable message to the Japanese public: This is the price Japan pays for being a U.S. ally in Iraq. But Japan's prime minister remains resolute. Japan will not withdraw troops from Iraq.

JUNICHIRO KOIZUMI, JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER (through translator): We should not succumb to terrorism or such a group trying to block progress in order to help the people of Iraq rebuild their country.

SHUBERT: There are 550 Japanese troops on the ground in Iraq for reconstruction efforts only. No combat. But that has not stopped Japanese troops and civilians from becoming targets. Japanese troops are due to return in December.

Before Koda's killing, the prime minister said had he hoped to extend their stay in Iraq. That goes against public opinion in Japan. A majority of people here oppose the war in Iraq and oppose sending troops to Iraq. A poll taken before the hostage taking shows more than 60 percent want the troops to come home by the end of the year.

(on camera) Most Japanese supported the government's resolve not to give into terrorist's demands, but this killing poses a question: should Japan keep troops in longer in Iraq, and would that mean endangering more Japanese nationals like Shosei Koda?

Atika Shubert, CNN, Tokyo.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: Three U.N. election workers are being held by Islamic militants in Afghanistan.

Video of the hostages, two women and a man, was aired on an Al Jazeera Television. The Arab news network reports a group calling itself the Muslim Army is demanding that the U.N. leave Afghanistan. It also insists that all prisoners held in Afghanistan and at Guantanamo Bay be released.

Straight ahead, calling all daughters. Both candidates turn to family to help as the campaigns move into the final hours.

CNN LIVE SUNDAY returns right after this.

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WHITFIELD: Well, daughters, fathers and politics headline our look across America this hour.

Putting a feminine touch on the Democratic presidential campaign in Tampa, Florida, Saturday, daughters of prominent Democrats stood up to the microphone to sell the Kerry/Edwards ticket.

Among them, Chelsea Clinton making her first political speech, Vanessa Kerry, Kate Edwards and Karenna Gore Schiff. Caroline Kennedy was also on hand.

The Bush twins carried the Bush/Cheney into New Jersey, where the presidential race is tightening. Barbara and Jenna Bush praised their father's values, calling him a champion of women around the world.

A clear sunny day generally means pretty high voter turnout. Let's find out from Rob Marciano who across the country gets to enjoy that on Tuesday.

(WEATHER REPORT)

WHITFIELD: Happy Halloween.

Well, as the clock ticks toward election day, the candidates and the media are in sleep-deprived overdrive. "RELIABLE SOURCES" is coming up in about eight minutes. And here's Howie Kurtz with a preview.

Hello.

HOWARD KURTZ, HOST, "RELIABLE SOURCES": Hello, Fredricka.

Coming up, CBS's Leslie Stahl joins us for a look at the frenzied media coverage of the final days of this presidential campaign.

The Osama bin Laden tapes. Should the networks be turning over their airtime to a terrorist?

That "New York Times" story of missing Iraqi ammunition. Overdue or overblown?

And new numbers suggest a pro-Kerry tilt in the mainstream media.

All that and more, next on "RELIABLE SOURCE."

WHITFIELD: All right. Looking forward to that. Thanks a lot, Howie.

Stay with CNN, your election 2004 headquarters. Monday night at 8 Eastern, the battle for the White House goes through your backyard, and CNN is there. Paula Zahn hosts a town meeting live from Florida.

Then on Tuesday night, Wolf Blitzer and the entire election team kick off CNN's special election night coverage beginning at 7 Eastern, live from the NASDAQ headquarters in New York.

But first, we might know the name of the next American president as early as tonight if these predictions are any indicator. That answer will come from the Washington Redskins, of all folks.

Stick around. We'll explain.

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WHITFIELD: Well, forget the polls and the furrowed pundits. When it comes to politics, maybe the answer to the winning presidential ticket lies in sports and sports bars.

Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry stopped at a bar on his way out of Des Moines, Iowa, Saturday taking a regular guy kind of moment. Kerry ordered a round of beers and chatted for about 15 minutes before heading on his way.

President Bush, on the other hand, took time out to make fun of his opponent during an unannounced stop in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Saturday. He told a couple dozen supporters how nice it was to be as the Lambeau Field, emphasizing the "beau".

Last summer Kerry had confused Lambeau Field with Lambert Field, the name of the St. Louis airport.

Lambeau Field is home to the Green Bay Packers, but when the Packers take on the Washington Redskins today, President Bush might want to balance his enthusiasm for the game.

CNN's Tom Foreman explores which candidate stands a sporting chance in this presidential race.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): No one should celebrate the Red Sox more than John Kerry, because when the American League wins the World Series, as his hometown Sox finally did, 60 percent of the time, the Democrats win the White House.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're on our way! We're on our way!

FOREMAN: There are many presidential predictors. Long hemlines favor Republicans; good Bordeaux toasts the Democrats. But no one knows the serious alternatives better than presidential historian Allan Lichtman.

LICHTMAN: I believe that there are predictors other than polling that are more accurate and reliable than the polls.

FOREMAN: Lichtman has devised 13 questions about presidential performance, social attitudes and the military. He says the answers are keys to predicting the winner, and they are pointing to Bush. He's been right for five elections.

LICHTMAN: So my system looks at the big picture: foreign policy successes and failures, the long and short-term economy, scandals, social unrest, third parties. And is able to come up with a prediction a year or even more out from the election.

FOREMAN: On the Iowa electronic market and trade sports web sites, millions of Americans bet money on who will win, and Bush is substantially favored there, too.

Koleman Strumph is an economist who studies these markets.

KOLEMAN STRUMPH, ECONOMIST: I think one of the reasons these markets work so well is they take advantage of the wisdom of a lot of people where the people who have very strong views can make their intensity of views -- they can express it through this very interesting mechanism of investment.

FOREMAN: History backs him up. A century ago, betting on the presidency was hugely popular, front-page news. And long before polling, the betting markets were almost always correct.

Still, predicting the presidency is tricky. You can flip a coin and be right 50 percent of the time.

(on camera) But a few odd heads or tails, and your success rate could soar to 70 or 80 percent. So you see, any pattern that mimics election performance could be called a predictor.

But then there are the Redskins. (voice-over) For 70 years, every time the Washington Redskins have won their game before the election, the incumbent party has kept the White House. They play the Packers on Halloween.

Go Pack, go Skins. Go figure.

Tom Foreman, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: That's some formula.

More ahead on CNN SUNDAY. In a few moments, at the bottom of the hour, "RELIABLE SOURCES," today taking a closer look at the sprint to the finish for the candidates and the media.

At noon, it's "LATE EDITION" with Wolf Blitzer. Among Wolf's guests, Vice President Cheney's wife, Lynn Cheney.

At 2 p.m. Eastern, it's "PEOPLE IN THE NEWS," today profiling Laura Bush and Teresa Heinz Kerry.

But first, a check of the headlines.

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