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The Brief with Jim Sciutto
CNN International: Pakistan Vows to Respond to India's Air Strikes; Pakistan Call Indian Strikes "Act of War"; Suntory CEO on Tariffs; India- Pakistan Tensions; The Conclave Begins; Black Smoke Rises from the Vatican. Aired 6-7p ET
Aired May 07, 2025 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[18:00:00]
JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington. And you're watching
"The Brief."
Just ahead this hour, Pakistan is vowing to respond to India's air strikes as both nations say civilians have been killed in this conflict. Black
smoke rises from the Vatican as the first day of the conclave ends without a new pope yet. And we speak to the CEO of Suntory, one of Japan's most
illustrious brands about how it's navigating Donald Trump's trade war.
The U.S. is among the nations urging India and Pakistan to step back from the brink of a wider war. This a day after India launched airstrikes on
both Pakistan administered Kashmir and Pakistan itself. Pakistan is now vowing to retaliate. India for its part, says that it hit militant sites
after last month's deadly terrorist attack. Pakistan's prime minister is calling those Indian strikes, however, an act of war.
Islamabad says dozens of flights were in the air at the time, endangering the lives of passengers. On the ground, it reports at least 31 people
killed. This amid reports of cross border shelling in the disputed region of Kashmir. An Indian defense source says Pakistan fire killed 12 people on
the Indian side of the line of control. President Donald Trump says, it is now time to stop.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: We get along with both the countries very well, good relationships with both, and I want to see it stop. And if I can
do anything to help, I will be there.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: CNN, international Diplomatic Editor Nic Robertson joins me now from Islamabad. And, Nik, I wonder is there appetite in the region? Is
there desire for U.S. intervention?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: I think the answer broadly to that is yes. You know, before India struck Pakistan, Pakistan
was saying very clearly, you don't need to do a retaliatory strike for the killing of those 26 civilians. We do want to talk. And I think there's a
sense in the region at the moment that the situation might be in reverse. And certainly, there are efforts at diplomacy.
You heard there, President Trump's offer. And it does seem that there may be some traction in that. But what's absent at the moment is anyone coming
forward, whether it's the United States or the UAE or all the other countries that are trying to sort of find a diplomatic off ramp here, not
coming forward with a structure that's sufficient to -- for both sides to see a way to avoid this. And one of the principle reasons for that is
because India has decided to pull out of this 1960 water treaty agreement.
And for Pakistan, that's an existential issue. And what I'm hearing from officials right now, and still to this moment is that this is something
that they've decided not to let go. They do feel compelled for all those reasons. The deepness of the strike inside of Pakistan, it was unexpected.
The fact that women and children have been killed and injured for all these reasons. Absolutely the expectation is that they will strike back. And this
is what we heard from the prime minister today.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTSON (voice-over): In the hours after India's deadly early morning airstrikes, a wave of missiles, the promise of revenge from Pakistan's
prime minister.
The blood of these martyrs will be avenged, he says, we will take this war to the end. Both nuclear armed neighbors are leaning into a long history of
escalation.
COL. SOFIYA QURESHI, INDIAN ARMY: It must be said that the Indian Armed Forces are fully prepared to respond to Pakistani misadventures.
ROBERTSON (voice-over): 31, including women and children, killed in the overnight strikes. The deepest by India and to Pakistan in over 50 years.
Pakistan's PM claiming a right to self-defense.
[18:05:00]
And in an emotional speech to parliament praising his Air Force for shooting down India's prized Rafale fighter jets, the first ever in combat.
LT. GEN. AHMED SHARIF CHAUDRY, PAKISTANI MILITARY SPOKESPERSON: So, far, I can confirm you that five Indian aircrafts, including three Rafale, one Su-
30 and one MiG-29 have been shot down and one her Heron drone has also been shot down.
ROBERTSON (voice-over): CNN can only confirm one Rafale jet came down 40 miles inside Indian controlled Kashmir. According to the New Delhi
government, the strikes hitting nine targets were in response to the last month's killing of 26 civilians in the disputed region of Kashmir by
militants India says, without evidence, are from Pakistan, which Islamabad denies.
Strikes, rhetoric, and emotions pushing these two bitter neighbors to the brink of a wider conflict. Already deadly artillery shelling across the de
facto border in Kashmir has intensified. India claiming more than a dozen civilians killed so far, and warning Pakistan not to take it further.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTSON (voice-over): And it's not clear when Pakistan's response will come, they've said at a time and place when they're ready. The expectation
would be, I think, that perhaps it could be in the coming days -- perhaps not immediately, but in the coming days, but of course into this equation,
if you will, in the region, President Trump is coming to the region in just a few days, and I don't think either India or Pakistan would want to see a
massive escalation while such an important global player was very close to their countries. I think there'll be a huge push to avoid an escalation
during his visit. Now, Pakistan could respond before that, Jim.
SCIUTTO: Good point. The timing is key. Nic Robertson in Islamabad, thanks so much. For more on this Pakistan's former national security adviser,
Moeed Yusuf joins me now. He's also a senior fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center. Thanks so much for taking the time.
MOEED YUSUF, FORMER PAKISTANI NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Pleasure.
SCIUTTO: So, I wonder hearing now, President Trump expressing a willingness to help mediate or de-escalate this crisis, how could he do so?
And is there pressure that he could apply beyond encouraging words to de- escalate?
YUSUF: Look, there's a pattern here. Pakistan and India tested nuclear weapons in 1998. This is the seventh major crisis since then, and in every
single one of them they have lacked a good, robust bilateral escalation control mechanism. Every time it's been the third-party collective of
different countries with the U.S. in the lead that's come in to de- escalate.
I think the playbook has changed slightly because it's not that the U.S. president or the U.S. administration of a time would say they're available
if needed, they would actually come in of their own accord and either offer face savers or incentives to one or the other side, depending on the
context, and ensure that their focus was de-escalation before anything else, any alignment, any partnership, any alliance, and that's how they got
through these past crises.
In 2019, which was the last crisis, this the government that I was part of in Pakistan, the U.S. actually leaned heavily towards India. And that
emboldened unwittingly, I think, emboldened India to conduct an airstrike inside Pakistan. Pakistan responded, an Indian pilot was captured, and at
the brink of further escalation, Pakistan released the pilot and it was de- escalated with the third-party involvement.
I think this time there's been a bit of a detached response from the U.S. In some ways, India was expecting a much stronger response in support of
India. That didn't come. And that I think, gave India a bit of pause for two weeks before they acted and targeted places inside Pakistan a day
earlier.
And Pakistan actually wasn't really expecting a supportive U.S. stance, but both Pakistan and India internalized that third-parties will come and pull
them apart. So, if that's not happening, they're in uncharted territory. And that's, I think, the unease and the unpredictability of the current
crisis.
SCIUTTO: You -- before this recent escalation, you said you did not believe a full-scale war is imminent. Now, we have an escalation, and as
you note there, it appears less direct U.S. or third-party involvement. Has your view changed now? Are you more concerned?
[18:10:00]
YUSUF: Look one is always concerned in the nuclear environment when the first shot is fired, you have no guarantee of where it's going to go.
That's why the only way to prevent escalation in a nuclear environment is not to allow a crisis to take off in the first place.
I think this time the problem is there's a lot of anger in Pakistan because India has made a basic error. They've gone in, they've blamed Pakistan for
an attack that happened two weeks ago. There's not a shade of evidence they've put forward to the world, to Pakistan, even to their own people.
And still they've gone in and reacted and attacked Pakistan. And that's really riled up sentiment in Pakistan, because Pakistan had asked for an
independent inquiry that asked for international investigation. None of that happened. And India has gone ahead and attacked. And I think that's
why Pakistan is not willing to provide that face saver so easily.
And I think Nic was right, my sense also is, unlike the time I was in government when we were trying very hard to open up a good conversation
with India, I think this time it's not going to be as simple, people here do want Pakistan to act and get the revenge for what India's done.
SCIUTTO: As you know, Pakistan is claiming to have shot down as many as five Indian jets and it is CNN's reporting, as Nic mentioned, that French
officials have confirmed that at least one of its French manufacturer of Rafale jets did indeed go down. What is the significance of that, in your
view, in terms of defense capabilities and could it possibly provide an off ramp for Pakistan to say, in effect, it has already struck back to some
degree?
YUSUF: Potentially. I think potentially you're right. I mean, that's the debate. India is actually very good. It's been very good in the past in
creating a narrative of victory at home, even if the reality was the opposite, even when Pakistan had captured the pilot, he was on
international TV screens, India was declaring victory somehow.
Whether it's five, whether it's, you know, one, I think that's another conversation. We'll never get to that -- no agreement on that will ever
happen. The point is, it was a bad night for India. India didn't come in attacking Pakistan thinking that it would have planes down. It would have a
military brigade headquarter hit.
And I think there is still pressure on India as well. So, you can't rule out that the commitment trap that the Indian government finds itself in is
over either. So, I think we are on the brink. It's a very, very dicey situation. The third-party, as we've talked about, is missing at least in
the way that it used to come in the past. And in Pakistan there is a discernible shift in sentiment. People do not want to see India get away
with what they've done, because I think the original sin is that they feel there's no evidence, Pakistan had nothing to do with it, and yet, one
nuclear power gets up and attacks another one.
And the other critical point is what Nic mentioned, a treaty brokered by the World Bank, Pakistan's water lifeline and Indian officials gloating
over saying that we are going to starve 250 million Pakistanis or water. So, there's a lot of bad blood here. And -- you know, and that's why I
think we are at a very, very tenuous moment in this crisis right now.
SCIUTTO: Moeed Yusuf, we appreciate you sharing your thoughts.
YUSUF: Thank you.
SCIUTTO: Well, the Kremlin says it plans to honor its own proposed three- day ceasefire. The unilateral truce, not backed by Ukraine, but it was due to take effect in just the last hour. It's set to coincide with Russia's
Victory Day observations, marking the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany. Ukraine, and the U.S. we should note, pushing for a longer
ceasefire for at least 30 days.
Earlier today, however, the U.S. vice president, J. D. Vance, said that Russia is, quote, "asking too much in peace negotiations with Ukraine." He
urged direct talks between the two countries and he said the U.S. itself is no longer focused on a 30-day ceasefire.
Nick Paton Walsh joins me now from Eastern Ukraine. And I wonder what this three-day ceasefire will actually be if it's unilateral, if Ukraine is not
on board and the U.S. not on board either, will both sides honor those three days?
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yes. I mean, look, it's a very complex question and I think it's also for those
critics of Moscow's policy here, a sign of potentially how they cynically use these unilaterally declared moments to try and suggest that their
opponent isn't genuine about peace either.
Now, in the last hour or so, we've heard from some military sources with a pretty good grasp on certain areas of the frontline, they've seen a slight
downtick in Russian behavior, but still four or five artillery strikes in just the first 10 minutes of this reported ceasefire in one area alone and
a jet taking off. So, signs potentially have not as much as you might have seen previously. There's bad weather. There may be an impact too, but huge
amounts -- abnormal amount of Russian surveillance, drones.
They reported in one area, two here. I can hear behind me the occasional thud, which may sound like we're not going to have a particularly peaceful
night. Nothing could be worse it seems than what we saw parts of last night. Sirens in the Capitol Kyiv, dead and injured amongst Ukrainians,
another significant number of missiles and drones fired at Ukraine.
[18:15:00]
So, where does this indeed lead? Well, Ukraine has not signed up to its specifically that might change potentially if they see some Russian
sincerity. But Zelenskyy has been clear that he believes this to be a theatrical move. They're asking for a more sustained lengthier ceasefire of
30 days. You know, for a bid, perhaps to give some space for diplomacy to take action.
But as each one of these, sort of, ceasefires comes and go, I think there's increased cynicism as to how sincerely Moscow is taking this. Some of the
military sources we've spoken to said that the Easter ceasefire, much shorter, about 30 hours, seem to really have been used more by Russia to
reposition, reinforce troops and be ready for the push that it did just after that. So, a lot of concern that this might be another effort by
Russia to reposition its forces ahead of something. We're certainly seeing some parts of the frontline under intense pressure.
But deep concerns too as to what the next phase in this diplomatic process may indeed be. Russia's demands, as you heard, the vice president, J. D.
Vance, still pretty maximalist, still wanting, it seems, more territory than they currently occupy right now. And also, too, I think Ukraine, after
that rare earth minerals deal signed, potentially hoping to see more assistance from the United States.
But this notion of direct face-to-face negotiations between President Zelenskyy and Putin, that seems to be something we are hearing again and
again, that seems a not so close prospect right now. Quite what the symbolism of Putin and some of his allies on Red Square will be on Friday
during Victory Day on Red Square, we'll have to have to see.
But I think real concerns here about exactly whether the ceasefire means anything or changes the dynamic at all here, Jim.
SCIUTTO: Yes, no question. Well, please do keep yourself and the team safe. Nick Paton Walsh in Eastern Ukraine.
Still ahead this hour, the CEO of Suntory Holding says Japan needs a bold new rethink on trade, including closer trade ties with China after
President Trump's tariffs on Japan. He will join us right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SCIUTTO: Welcome back to "The Brief." U.S. stocks ended Wednesday's session higher. Tech stocks rallying late in the day on news that the Trump
administration will ease export restrictions specifically on A.I. chips.
[18:20:00]
Also, today, the Federal Reserve did the expected and kept interest rates unchanged. The Central Bank says the U.S. economy remains solid, but that,
quote, "uncertainty" about the economic outlook has increased. Further Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, despite those uncertainties, it is still too soon
to cut rates.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JEROME POWELL, CHAIR, U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE: We are going to need to see how this evolves. There are cases in which it would be appropriate for us
to cut rates this year. There are cases in which it wouldn't, and we just don't know. Until we know more about how this is going to settle out and
what the economic implications are for employment, for -- and for inflation, I couldn't confidently say that I know what the appropriate path
will be.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: On the tariff front as well, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the U.S. trade representatives will hold talks this weekend
with China's top economic official. But President Trump said today he will not lower tariffs to help get a deal with China. Bessent acknowledging
talks with Beijing will take time.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SCOTT BESSENT, U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY: We don't want to decouple. What we want is fair trade. My sense is that this will be about de-escalation, not
about the big trade deal and it -- but we've got to de-escalate before we can move forward.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: Beijing announced new stimulus measures for its own economy ahead of those talks, it will cut key interest rates on Thursday, then ease
regulations to help banks lend more.
Well, the U.S. vice president, J. D. Vance, criticized Russia at a security conference here in Washington today. He said that Kremlin was, quote,
"asking for too much" in terms of concessions for peace with Ukraine. At times it sounded like the White House was backing off its months long call
for a 30-day ceasefire.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
J. D. VANCE, U.S. VICE PRESIDENT: What the Russians have said, again, you don't have to disagree with it, but it's important to understand where the
other side is coming from. What the Russians have said is a 30-day ceasefire is not in our strategic interest. So, we've tried to move beyond
the obsession with the 30-day ceasefire and more on the what would the long-term settlement look like, and we've tried to consistently advance the
ball.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SCIUTTO: Of course, that 30-day ceasefire was this administration's own goal. One of the people in the room listening to Vance was the Belarusian
opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Her country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is a longtime Putin ally, even allowing him to launch
part of his invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. I asked the opposition leader about her reaction to the vice president's comments, and
she had this warning.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA, BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION LEADER: I was really agreed with the him that Russia wants too much during these negotiations.
And we see that Russia wants not only parts of Ukraine, they want Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, half of Europe, you know, and so on, so forth. And of
course, we as Belarusian people, we really appreciate the attempts of President Trump to achieve peace. But from our point of view, we see that
dictators, they don't need peace. The war fuels the dictatorship, you know, justify their crimes. So -- but nevertheless, if this peace is achieved
somehow. So, we have to make sure that this peace is just and long-lasting. That not just a short pause for Russia to regroup their forces and started
attack maybe Europe.
SCIUTTO: If Vladimir Putin truly does not want peace, is there pressure, do you believe, that the U.S. could apply to force him into negotiations,
particularly economic pressure?
TSIKHANOUSKAYA: I am sure the dictators understand only the language of power, and I think that they say together with Europe in this, you know,
wonderful against, they have to create more economic pressure on the regimes, because sanctions do work. They really do work. If there are no
loopholes, if there are no possibilities to circumvent and if all the countries involved, you know, fulfill their roles.
So -- and of course, I'm welcoming you -- Senator Graham's initiative of imposing devastating sanctions just in case Russia doesn't want ceasefire,
they don't want any peace deal. So, it'll be their only outcome.
SCIUTTO: Yes. Russia is carrying out military exercises inside Belarus, as you know, which has caused alarm, not just in Ukraine, because of course
Russian forces invaded Ukraine from Belarus, but also in Eastern Europe and Poland and in the Baltic states. In your view, are these exercises
preparing for any kind of additional military action?
[18:25:00]
We have to remember how the last joined Belarus and Russian drills ended back in 2022. It was invasion in Ukraine. So, now, it might be preparation
for possible attack on Western countries. It might be only provocation, but the fact is that while Lukashenko is there and his servant to Putin's
interest, Belarus will be constant source of threat, deployment of nuclear weapon, joint drills, migration attacks, hijacking of airplanes whatsoever.
You know, Lukashenko will provide our territory for any possible provocations against NATO countries or Ukraine. So, that's why it's
crucially important for our region, but also actually for the USA to drag Belarus out of this war, dismantle Lukashenko's regime and provide
Belarusian people to choose their future by themselves.
I think that free and Democratic Belarus is in the interest of the USA for several reasons, and one of them is that Belarus is part of this chain of
axis of evil, China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, and Belarus. But I don't understand why Belarus is very often overlooked, you know, overshadowed.
So, if we cut, you know, this chain on Belarus, it'll be profitable for all the regions.
SCIUTTO: You have said that Lukashenko is selling Belarus to Putin piece by piece, in your words. Do you believe Putin intends to swallow up Belarus
entirely?
TSIKHANOUSKAYA: You know, Russia doesn't see no Belarus, no Ukraine, Moldova, and all these post-Soviet Union countries as separate independent
states. They look at us as are not children who like want choose their future by themselves. No, no, no. You have to be with me.
So -- and what Putin wants, for example, in all these countries is to have like local Lukashenkos, loyal, you know, ready to serve to the master. And
what we see now in the country, process of falsification, we see how Russia interferes in all the spheres of Belarusian life, economy, military,
education, media, and this is swallowing. This is creeping occupation. And we must stop this, you know, spheres of influence.
We are not your daughter. We -- Belarusian people chose European future, we want to return to our European family of countries. Why you dare, you know,
to restrict us from this?
SCIUTTO: You're -- and I see you have a picture of your husband. He was arrested and you haven't heard from him.
TSIKHANOUSKAYA: Yes, actually he is already five years in jail. And last two years, I haven't heard a word from my husband. We call it
incommunicado. And actually, we have at least 1,200 political prisons in Belarus. And it's the most painful like, topic, you know, for our society.
And actually, I came to the USA to ask President Trump for two issues. You know, I have to request. The first one is to help release political
prisoners. Several political prisoners have already been released during presidency of Trump. And we don't have to stop. It'll be really historic
achievements if managed to return to the families 1,200 people.
And second request is I ask President Trump to be peacemaker not only in Ukraine, but also in Belarus. With the mediation of the president, we
really can start dialogue between Belarusian regime and Belarusian people, because we need peaceful transition of power in my country and to get
Belarus out of Russian claws.
SCIUTTO: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, I hope that you do get to see your husband again soon and your children get to see him as well.
TSIKHANOUSKAYA: Thank you.
SCIUTTO: Thanks very much for joining.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCIUTTO: Back to trade now, Japan was one of the first countries to hold trade talks with Washington after President Trump's partial tariff pause
last month. Washington imposed 24 percent reciprocal tariffs on Japan before the pause, but Tokyo still remains exposed to Trump's 25 percent car
tariffs and 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Japan's prime minister says that striking a deal with the U.S. will not be easy. Spirits and beverage giant Suntory Holdings is one of Japan's leading
exporters and greatly exposed to those tariffs. Its new strategy is to produce and sell more of its products locally to avoid the tariffs on what
it sends to the U.S.
The company's CEO suggests that Tokyo should deepen trade ties with other countries, including China as insurance against the ongoing trade
uncertainties.
The chairman and CEO of Suntory Holdings Tak Niinami joins me now. Thanks so much for taking the time.
[18:30:00]
TAK NIINAMI, CHAIRMAN AND CEO, SUNTORY HOLDINGS: Thank you.
SCIUTTO: First, I wonder what your vision is on these trade negotiations, because when you hear from President Trump or others in the White House,
they say that countries are lining up to President Trump and the administration to make deals. Is that an accurate representation of these
talks?
NIINAMI: Well, I think, we hope that by the end of the May lots of issues will be settled between the two countries. That's pretty much our hope. But
we don't see any evidence at this moment throughout the end game of this negotiation.
SCIUTTO: You've urged a rethink of Japan's trading relationships, even going so far as to urge closer ties with China in effect to pick up some of
the slack I imagine with the U.S. Do you believe that the relationship, the trading relationship with the U.S. for companies such as Suntory is
effectively changed for good?
NIINAMI: I don't think so. Well, because the U.S. market is the most important for us. But I'm so afraid of the recession. If the U.S. and China
relation is going to order the further deterioration, I definitely believe that there is a huge possibility that the U.S. will be suffered from
recession. In that case, we have to think about where to go. Because we rely on the U.S. market quite a lot.
So, China is now stimulating the consumption. So, we have some footprint in China, maybe we have to review the business in China. Not only China, but
also ASEAN countries, and India as well. So, I'm not stressing that we have to go to China instead of the United States, but we have to have the
geographical expansion, because we over rely on the U.S. market.
SCIUTTO: If there is a recession in the U.S. as a result of the trade war and of course, there was already a contraction in the first quarter, the
U.S. economy quite big, as you know. It imports a lot from all around the world. Does this mean in effect there will be less trade for everyone and
therefore, less business for a company such as yours?
NIINAMI: Exactly. That will happen. So, I hope the President Trump and his team would think about what to do with the tariff. You know, it's really
dependent on the relation between China and the United States. Because U.S. has been importing lots of goods from China. If 10 percent tariff on the
Chinese products, that means 0.7 percent inflation will come to the U.S. economy. But currently, 100 to 140, 150.
So, if that goes down to the, let's say, 20 percent, $10, the less risk of the recession to the United States. That will be a big relief for us to
keep the producing goods in the United States, which is our will to be honest.
So, hopefully, the Swiss -- Switzerland, Swiss (ph) negotiation between the two countries over U.S. and China will be successful or give us some kind
of hope that they will have the good dialogue between the two countries.
SCIUTTO: Beyond looking to new markets or expanding trade with other markets such as China, how else is Suntory adjusting its business model to
make it more tariff proof?
NIINAMI: Well, we will go into the more value-added products and expand our product portfolio. The first one is we make use of R&D, so that we can
be more differentiated from our peers in the industry, such as a functional drink, such as far less alcohol. And the second is we call RTD, just like a
sell to market to target the Gen Z consumers in the world, especially the United States. Gen Zs is creating they are creating a new market like less
alcohol drink, and that is our strength. So, we want to be more focused on it.
SCIUTTO: Well, Tak Niinami, we wish you luck as you adjust to this new reality, and we appreciate you taking the time today.
NIINAMI: Thank you.
[18:35:00]
SCIUTTO: Well, just after the break, we're going to have more on the dangerous escalation in Kashmir between India and Pakistan. Please do stay
with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SCIUTTO: Welcome back to "The Brief." I'm Jim Sciutto. And here are more international headlines we're watching today. Pakistan is vowing
retaliation for a series of airstrikes by India. India says its attack hit terrorist infrastructure, both in Pakistan controlled Kashmir and Pakistan
itself. Pakistan says that India hit mosques and killed civilians. Tensions have been running high since last month when terrorists based in Pakistan
killed 26 people in India controlled Kashmir.
Black smoke billowed from the Sistine Chapel chimney. This after the first round of voting to choose a new pope, that means they haven't quite gotten
there yet. A cardinal must receive at least two-thirds of the vote to be elected. This means the conclave will need to deliberate further as those
cardinals choose the next leader of the Catholic Church.
U.S. Federal Reserve has decided to hold interest rates steady on concerns that tariffs could take a toll on economic growth, and perhaps raise prices
as well. The Fed warns that risks of higher inflation and higher unemployment known together as stagflation have now increased.
Pakistan's defense minister is calling India strikes, quote, "an invitation to expand the conflict." He has rejected India's claim that it only
targeted terrorist infrastructure.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KHAWAJA MUHAMMAD ASIF, PAKISTANI DEFENSE MINISTER: There are absolutely no active terrorist activities. It's just their imagination, the figment of
imagination of India. They just want to justify it. Whatever they are doing, they're find -- are trying to find a justification for that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[18:40:00]
SCIUTTO: Pakistan vowing to retaliate. It says, these 31 people were killed in these strikes. India blames Pakistan for that massacre of 26
civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir last month. Most of those civilians were Indian nationals.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VIKRAM MISRI, INDIAN FOREIGN SECRETARY: These actions were measured, non- escalatory, proportionate, and responsible. It was deemed essential that the perpetrators and planners of the 22nd April attack be brought to
justice. Despite a fortnight having passed since the attacks, there has been no demonstrable step from Pakistan to take action against the
terrorist infrastructure on its territory or on territory under its control.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: A senior Indian defense source says that shelling by Pakistan killed at least 12 people on the Indian side of the border. Joining me now
is Sameer Lalwani, senior expert at the Asia Center at the United States Institute of Peace. Good to have you on. Thanks for joining.
SAMEER LALWANI, SENIOR EXPERT, ASIA CENTER AT UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE: Thanks for having me on.
SCIUTTO: You know, when I hear Indian and Pakistani officials speaking now in this quite volatile moment, it just sounds to me like they're talking
past each other. And I wonder, do you see any potential pathway here to de de-escalate?
LALWANI: I think there is a pathway for de-escalation, but I think it's important to understand the stakes. India felt the need to retaliate for
what it saw as a terrorist attack on its citizens. It conducted some pretty surprising airstrikes and other types of strikes on nine different targets
and potentially lost some aircraft in the process. So, that in and of itself might be the pathway to de-escalation.
SCIUTTO: Yes.
LALWANI: I think President Trump just recently described it as both sides had tit for tat. And so, maybe that offer is an opportunity for an off-
ramp.
SCIUTTO: Trump initially was, it seems, staying clear of this, but today he did offer to intervene, if possible. Would that be welcomed by India and
Pakistan?
LALWANI: I think publicly, maybe not at this moment. Privately, I think there's opportunities to be a de-escalating role, whether in terms of
communication, intelligence, support, battle damage assessment or offering alternative pathways for de-escalation. I think for India -- there are
other forms of retaliation India can pursue in conjunction with the United States, whether at the U.N., whether through financial sanctions, whether
through the IMF.
And so, I think the United States might be able to offer those as an alternative pathway now that both sides have had sort their kinetic action
desire satiated.
SCIUTTO: Oftentimes when these two countries, and quite understandably, exchange fire, and those are sadly relatively frequent events, there's
concern about escalation and of course, folks note that these are two nuclear powers here. Do you see potential for escalation into a broader
conflict, or do you believe that the desire on both sides will be at some point to pull back?
LALWANI: Yes, I don't think there's ever a desire for a full-scale war. I think both parties will say that as much. The problem is the risk of
inadvertent escalation or accidental escalation, right? Inadvertent meaning you take actions that might cross your adversary's red line without knowing
it. Accidental mean you accidentally do something in the fog or friction of war that crosses a line or sort of affects you.
I mean, both sides have misestimated, each other's resolve and capabilities in the past. India has accidentally launched BrahMos cruise missiles into
Pakistan and shot down its own helicopter in previous crises. So, fog and friction is a dangerous thing when temperatures are heated. And so, the
need to have like sort of reliable communicators, whether through third- parties and to sort of, at some point, look for alternative pathways de- escalation.
I think both sides will ultimately seek that. The question is, will they feel satisfied with where they are now with whether they've achieved some
level of political success that they can call it a victory and move on or whether -- if one party doesn't believe they've achieved that, then they
still have incentives to go another round.
SCIUTTO: No question. And one side's proportional could be considered as escalatory by the other. Sameer Lalwani, thanks so much for joining.
LALWANI: You're welcome.
SCIUTTO: Well, the enclave has begun in Vatican City with the first ballot now, in the books. We're going to dive into the secretive ancient process
of selecting a new pope right after the break.
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[18:45:00]
SCIUTTO: No new pope yet, that is the message from that black smoke you see there emanating from a chimney atop the Sistine Chapel. Black smoke
means they got to vote again. You got to wait for the white smoke. No cardinal yet has obtained the two-thirds majority, though not unusual. In
fact, pope has not been chosen on the first day in centuries.
Earlier, the cardinal electors swore an oath of secrecy before shutting themselves off behind those big wooden doors from the rest of the world.
Massimo Faggioli is a professor of Theology and Religious Studies at Villanova University and he joins me now. Thanks so much for joining.
MASSIMO FAGGIOLI, THEOLOGY PROFESSOR, VILLANOVA UNIVERSITY: Thank you.
SCIUTTO: First, I want to ask you about your recent op-ed on Trump and the return in this country of right-wing Catholicism. I should note that Vice
President Vance is a Catholic. That's, of course, largely a U.S. phenomenon, but I wonder if the cardinals in Rome are sensitive to that and
perhaps even resistant to that sort of intervention or pressure from afar.
FAGGIOLI: I think they're sensitive because the Vatican is very much aware of what's happening in the United States and of the consequences that the
disruption of trade, of the democratic system is having worldwide. So, it's no longer a matter of a president or a king or an emperor choosing a pope
as it was sometimes in early centuries, but it's a matter of how much the American situation is occupying the mind of some cardinals, and I think
there is some concerns for what is happening now in this country.
SCIUTTO: There are so many things that go into this decision. I certainly don't want to overestimate the U.S. element. But how does this broader
conflict within the church, between the sort of pastoral mission of Pope Francis that he emphasized and the more, if the right word is doctrinal or
rules focused mission of some of his predecessors? Is that -- is it correct to describe that as the choice in effect facing those cardinals?
FAGGIOLI: Well, that would be the choice certainly if we had a conclave in New York or in Washington, D.C. or in California. That's not the global
church. I think there is an overwhelming consensus among cardinals, as we have heard in these last few years, that the choices made by Pope Francis
were not perfect, but they were embodying a certain awareness of what the mission of the church is.
[18:50:00]
What's typical of U.S. Catholicism is the formation of two -- of a two- party church, which is typical of our system here in United States, but it's really not the same thing around the world.
SCIUTTO: How about the geographical, I don't know if split is the right word, but divide in that the church is largely shrinking in the West while
it's getting most of its growth in terms of worshipers in the East and in Africa, does that make it more likely that the cardinals convening in the
Sistine Chapel choose a leader perhaps from Asia, perhaps from Africa?
FAGGIOLI: It is possible. It's also a bit complicated because choosing a cardinal from a certain country means calculating the possible consequences
on Catholics in that country, in that area, many Catholics live in countries where the church is persecuted or is barely tolerated. The pope
has to be independent as a global leader from political pressures. So, that plays a -- certainly it's a church that now listens much more to the
Catholic churches in Africa, Asia, these Catholics don't want to be lectured by Europeans anymore. That's a big change that Pope Francis has
made very clear in these 12 years of pontificate.
SCIUTTO: No question. Well, Massimo Faggioli of Villanova, we appreciate you joining. Perhaps we'll have you back after the choice is made and you
can help us interpret it.
FAGGIOLI: Thank you. Thank you very much.
SCIUTTO: And we'll be right back after a short break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SCIUTTO: Before we leave you today, we do have some sad news to share, the death of Joseph Nye, the highly influential international relations
scholar. In addition to being the former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, he served under Bill Clinton as Assistant Secretary of Defense for
International Security Affairs. He went on to become a professor at Emeritus at Harvard University. He was 88 years old.
In the 1980s, Nye coined the term soft power, that nations can influence each other through appeal and attraction rather than coercion or threats.
He spoke about soft power on my show only last Thursday. And I asked him if the loss of soft power on the Trump administration can ever be recovered.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: As folks around the world see that cycle or perhaps the pendulum swing, does that make the U.S. fundamentally untrustworthy as a trading
partner, as an ally so that the next election, whichever way it goes, doesn't necessarily recover that soft power lost?
[18:55:00]
JOSEPH NYE JR., PROFESSOR, HARVARD UNIVERSITY AND FORMER DEAN, HARVARD KENNEDY SCHOOL: Well, I find this when I talk to friends in Europe or
Asia, and I say, well, you know, that may be that the Democrats or a moderate Republican will come in '28 election and they say, yes, but what
about '32? Can you promise me that we're not going to go back to this behavior that we're seeing now? And that you can't give them that promise.
SCIUTTO: Nope. And countries have to make long-term decisions, right, about their own interests and national security. Joseph Nye, I really do
appreciate you taking the time today.
NYE JR.: Nice to be with you as always.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: And our thoughts go to his family and his friends and colleagues. Joseph Nye dead at 88 years old.
Thanks so much for your company today. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington. You've been watching "The Brief." Please do stay with CNN.
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