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The Brief with Jim Sciutto
Rubio: U.S. Expecting A "Serious" Response From Iran; U.S. And Iran Trade Fire For Second Day Despite Ceasefire; Trump: Announces Three-Day Truce Between Russia And Ukraine; U.S. Withdrawing 5,000 Troops From Germany; Hantavirus-Hit Cruise Ship Heads To Spanish Canary Islands; Strong U.S. Jobs Report; Virginia Supreme Court Blocks Democrats' Redistricting Plan. Aired 6-7p ET
Aired May 08, 2026 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[18:00:00]
JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington, and you're watching
"The Brief."
Just ahead this hour, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says he is hoping for a serious offer from Iran on the latest proposal to end the war.
Authorities in Spain's Canary Islands prepare for a cruise ship, which is the center of a Hantavirus outbreak. And Virginia Supreme Court strikes
down a redistricting plan designed to favor Democrats. A blow.
We do begin with the fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Officials here in the U.S. say it is holding despite both sides trading fire once
again for a second straight day. The Pentagon says U.S. forces fired on two Iranian flag tankers trying to bypass the U.S. blockade in the Gulf of
Oman. Iranian state media report hearing shooting and explosions around the Strait of Hormuz in what they called a, quote, "limited exchange" of fire.
Iran's foreign ministry calls Thursday's U.S. strikes a reckless military adventure.
U.S. officials continue to watch and wait for a response to the latest U.S. peace proposal. Secretary of State Rubio said he does expect to hear from
Iranian leaders soon.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARCO RUBIO, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: We're expecting a response from them today at some point. We have not received that yet as -- you know, the --
in the last hour, but perhaps that will come. Their system is still highly fractured and a bit dysfunctional as well. So, so that may be serving as an
impediment. I hope it's a serious offer. I really do.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: Kristen Holmes joins us now from the White House. And Kristen, one could be forgiven for concluding it is Iran that's driving the timeline to
these negotiations, keeping the U.S. waiting.
KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I mean, it certainly seems as though that's the case. Just a reminder, I mean, we
spoke yesterday, and yesterday there was an assumption that they were going to get a response, it was going to come through the Pakistanis. Of course,
the entire day passed.
And now, we are at 6:02 in Washington. That remark by Rubio was hours and hours ago, and we still have not heard of any response from Iran. There has
been speculation, particularly among those who study the region, that Iran is slow-rolling this, that they are trying to drag their feet. President
Trump continues to say that they've agreed to almost everything. Of course, that begs the question, then why is the U.S. waiting for them to respond,
and what are they waiting for them to respond to?
And President Trump was asked a number of questions about what's actually in this deal. Remember, one of the things that we've been reporting is that
this is a short memorandum that would essentially end the war and then open up a 30-day negotiating period for some of those stickier issues. He went
on to say that all of the things that they have put in there, Iran has agreed to, including the nuclear dust, that is what he calls the enriched
uranium, both the enriched uranium underground, but also the moratorium on enriching uranium. He said that was something that was agreed to as well.
So, we're just going to have to wait and see what exactly comes back from Iran. These White House officials that we were talking to, they still
maintain that they are cautiously optimistic, but of course, as every hour passes, there are raised more questions as to what exactly Iran is doing
here and if they're operating in good faith and what they're going to respond with.
SCIUTTO: Tell us on another topic about this three-day ceasefire that the president announced between Ukraine and Russia. Does the White House see
this as the beginning of some path towards genuine negotiations to end the war, or is this more about Putin protecting his victory day parade from
Ukrainian drone attacks?
HOLMES: Well, the president is certainly saying that he believes that this could be the beginning, and we will note that this wasn't just President
Trump stepping into two unilateral ceasefires, which we know was already happening. Putin had already declared a 72-hour unilateral ceasefire,
although the Ukrainians said that he was breaching it.
It does appear, though, that overall, there was at least some weigh-in by President Trump and President Trump's team because this happened, President
Trump's announcement of this mutual ceasefire, after the Ukrainians had met with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and had basically a conversation to
restart the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
[18:05:00]
As we know, Witkoff and Kushner have been very deep into the Iranian negotiations, so this would have been an opportunity for them to restart
those conversations. And one of the things that President Trump says is included in this ceasefire is a suspension of all kinetic activity as well
as a prison swap of 1,000 prisoners from each country. Then he goes on to say that he hopes this is the beginning of the end of the war. I think that
right now is a pipe dream. We'll have to wait and see how even just the next three days play out.
As I said, there were already unilateral ceasefires in place. We were already hearing from people on the ground that those ceasefires were being
breached. So, we'll see what happens now that President Trump has stepped in, and he says that both of these leaders have agreed to it. But it is
pretty early and preliminary to say what this is going to lead to. We have to, one, just see if it holds at all.
SCIUTTO: We do, and a lot of the other agreements have not. Kristen Holmes at the White House, thanks so much.
Well, the U.S. secretary of state also, when asked, downplayed the planned removal of some 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany. He said that the move
announced by the Pentagon last week was already underway. Rubio said the president has not made a decision on removing more service members from
Europe despite his continued attacks on NATO and NATO members because, well, they didn't support his war against Iran.
Joining me now, our national security analyst, Beth Sanner, former deputy director of national intelligence. Beth, good to have you.
BETH SANNER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST AND FORMER U.S. DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE: Good to be here, Jim.
SCIUTTO: I want to begin on Iran, if I can.
SANNER: Yes.
SCIUTTO: It's just interesting to me the kind of pretzels that the administration is turning itself into to describe this exchange of fire as
nothing and wait and wait and wait for an Iranian response to their proposal. I mean, are they creating their own reality here because the
president's done with the war?
SANNER: Well, it's a new definition of ceasefire. You know, I've never really heard of a ceasefire where you get to fire. But, you know, Rubio's
description, I mean, kind of makes sense. It's like if they fire on us, we would be stupid not to fire back to eliminate the threat. OK. I get that.
But, you know, we also had missiles going into UAE today and drones. So, it's not just limited to the United States.
So, you know, I think it's pretty easy to say that this is a violation of the ceasefire. But nobody wants it to be. So, it isn't.
SCIUTTO: Right.
SANNER: So, you know, it's clear. And I think that part of the issue here is the signaling that this shows, even though we are fighting back, even
though we're defending ourselves, by just saying that it's not a violation of the ceasefire shows how badly we want this deal.
SCIUTTO: Right. And how badly the president wants to end the war.
SANNER: Yes.
SCIUTTO: Is he ending the war because it accomplished its goals or because he wants the war to be over? And he's concerned about the economic effects.
He's concerned about going to Beijing with a war still underway.
SANNER: You know, I mean, in terms of the goals, I think that the eye is very much in the beholder, of the beholder. Because President Trump, I
think I think he's kind of convinced himself that this measure, this yardstick that he's been using for judging the success of the war. You
know, all the Navy destroyed, you know, the missiles significantly degraded, even though they were supposed to be completely destroyed. You
know, like if you look at it from maybe this traditional measurement, you can say and convince yourself that, oh, yes. And because Iran is weaker.
SCIUTTO: Yes.
SANNER: No doubt. Right? But in terms of accomplishing the actual goals, which to me are more big picture, Iran cannot pose a threat to its
neighbors or the world. If you just say it that way, then unfortunately, we're not there.
SCIUTTO: Because it's still posing a threat.
SANNER: Absolutely.
SCIUTTO: I want to talk about the state of the NATO alliance. You just returned from Europe. You heard Secretary Rubio's downplaying of this
withdrawal of troops from Germany. Is that how our NATO partners would view it? Just a few troops. It's not a big deal.
SANNER: Well, you know, in fact, I don't think that they're worried so much about the troops in and of themselves. You know, President Trump had
threatened to withdraw 10,000 or 12,000 troops from Germany in the first term. And it just didn't get done. So, the 5,000 out of the, you know, over
36,000 in Germany itself, 80 whatever thousand in Europe, it's not that big of a deal in in just the numbers.
The real point is twofold. And the big picture is by the way it was done and by some of what is being withdrawn. You are sending a signal to
President Putin that the U.S. deterrence is no longer ironclad. And that is the whole reason, right? So, the United States says, you know, well, we
need these bases in order to project power.
Well, the reason that the Europeans want us present. Sure, they're fine with us projecting power, but they are there in order to contain and deter
Russia from aggression on the European continent. And that's worked for 50 years plus.
[18:10:00]
SCIUTTO: Yes, yes. Or even longer. So, in terms of the depth of the loss of trust among our allies, loss of trust in the U.S. What did you find as you
were in Europe?
SANNER: It's bad.
SCIUTTO: Yes.
SANNER: I mean, I think that, you know, it's just -- of course they were expecting things to be rocky in the beginning. But there was this I think
this feeling that, yes, you know, we're going to have disagreements on policies, but we're not really going to disagree about fundamental things.
And I think that the fundamental ideas that the alliance is based on, which I describe as twofold. One is values, that we have this shared sense of
values. And we had J.D. Vance just light that on fire when he said the European parties that run Europe are no longer the same as our values.
And then the second part is that we have a shared sense of threat. And that is that we see Russia as a threat. But in fact, when you read the national
security strategy of the United States, it says, well, the United States will be a mediator of hostile Russia and Europe. As if we're not. And we
speak of NATO in the third person. It's like those guys.
SCIUTTO: Yes.
SANNER: And so, I think that it's so profound. And then we had Greenland on top of that, which is just really been the thing that --
SCIUTTO: That's strongly my impression from speaking Europeans is that Greenland was the breaking point. So, do they -- so, they've made this
conclusion and they're willing to say so publicly. They were saying privately for some time. Are they, in your view, making the defense changes
necessary then to fill that gap?
SANNER: I think that they have been, you know, in Germany, they've tripled the defense budget in three years. And not just the numbers, but just the
mentality of Germans. I mean, Germany, kind of like Japan, it was a pacifistic state coming out of World War II. And now, they're talking about
reinstituting a draft.
SCIUTTO: Yes.
SANNER: And I think they have more people in their society who would support that than in America. That is just unbelievably different.
So, Zeitenwende, this idea that there is this monumental change in the perception of Germans toward threat and toward their responsibility, is
real. But how fast can it go? And with everything that we do, you know, well, where are the weapons that they're supposed to buy? They're now, you
know, at the bottom of the Strait of Hormuz or in Iran. They're not coming to Europe. So, they have to take more on their own and they're going to.
SCIUTTO: It's got to happen quickly. Beth Sanner, thanks so much.
SANNER: Thanks, Jim.
SCIUTTO: Authorities in Spain's Canary Islands are preparing now for the arrival of the cruise ship stricken with the Hantavirus. The MV Hondius is
expected to reach the Canary Islands on Sunday. Sources say the U.S. is dispatching CDC teams to meet the vessel. And also, to the State of
Nebraska, where a quarantine unit is getting ready to host the 17 U.S. passengers still on board that ship. In Spain, the plan is to fly some 150
people who've been stuck on board back to their home nations.
Health officials are racing to track dozens of passengers across the globe who already disembarked from the ship in April, as well as people who came
into contact with them. The number of confirmed cases now has risen to six.
Joining us live from the Canary Islands is Melissa Bell. Melissa, can you tell us what preparations are taking place there so that this doesn't
spread further?
MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, for a start, just reassuring people here in Tenerife, Jim, that they're going to be
safe. And there's been all this back and forth between the local authorities here in charge of these Canary Islands and Madrid about how
this disembarkation was going to take place. So, worried were they about the fact that they hadn't had enough information? In fact, you saw these
protests today on the part of dock workers extremely worried about just that.
So, in the end, the compromise that's been found is that the ship will dock, we understand, by midday on Sunday, local time, slightly away from
the shore. So, it's not actually going to dock. It's going to be moored just off of Tenerife.
From there, there's going to be a screening process to figure out the state of the health of people on board. What we've been hearing today from health
authorities here in Spain is that the people on board, the passengers were asymptomatic as they left Cap Verde. They are preparing all the various
scenarios, if all of them are still asymptomatic or not, for their arrival.
If they're still asymptomatic, what we understand will happen is there'll be this screening process on board. And then these speedboats will
accompany them by nationality. There are 23 different nationalities on board.
[18:15:00]
All of these people are then going to be taken back to their home countries. But in order to reassure locals, what they've had to do is
insist on the fact that they'll be taken only when the plane taking them back to their home country is ready to go motor rearing (ph) and door open,
that the speedboat can take them from the ship to their flights. It's not very great distance from where the ship will be docked and the airport.
So, really a great deal of efforts has been made to reassure people here that this docking can go ahead as well as this disembarkation. Jim.
SCIUTTO: And there have been protests, because the concerns are real. Melissa Bell in Tenerife, thanks so much.
Joining us now, Dr. Craig Spencer. He's an emergency physician, associate professor at Brown University School of Public Health. Doctor, thanks so
much for taking the time.
DR. CRAIG SPENCER, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, BROWN UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH AND EMERGENCY MEDICINE PHYSICIAN: Thanks for having me.
SCIUTTO: So, one of the concerns here is the length of the incubation period. One to six weeks before patients start to show symptoms. We're
already seeing one suspected case from someone who was on the same plane as you. We're already seeing one suspected case from someone who was on the
same flight as a passenger of this ship. 147 people on the ship. I wonder what difficulty that presents as they try to contain and do any contact
tracing.
DR. SPENCER: Yes, it's a good question. And let me just say, this is bread and butter public health. This is what public health does really well and
is done in the background. And I remain confident that the WHO, the World Health Organization that is leading this response, just put out a few
minutes ago, a new update to its collaboration and coordination around the world is on top of this.
And I'm glad to hear that the CDC in the U.S. is sending folks. We know that up until now, our response has been a little flat-footed, particularly
because over the last year, we've cut a lot of the infrastructure here in the U.S. that we had in place beforehand, including those disease
detectives at the CDC, including some of the research and other response capacity that we normally have in place ready to go. Some of that has been
torn away over the past year, and we're starting to see the impacts of that in terms of our flat-footed response from the U.S. side here. But in terms
of the international and global response, we're seeing the coordination and response that I think we need.
SCIUTTO: The last outbreak of this strain took place in southern Argentina. And in that case, a single person passed on the infection to several others
within 90 minutes of contact. And I wonder, was that unusual, or is this Hantavirus potentially contagious enough to do that, to pass it on to a
number of people in such a short time span?
DR. SPENCER: That's a good question. I know a lot of people right now are concerned. I've had family and friends ask me if they should be worried
about this, and I've been saying that their risk is incredibly low. My concern is more for the physicians that are going to be taking care of
these patients. I'm glad that around the United States, we have a dedicated set of biocontainment units, including in Nebraska, but also in New York
City and at Emory and other places where we have sustained funding around the year to make sure they're ready every single day for something like
this.
SCIUTTO: I know -- sorry, go ahead.
DR. SPENCER: Now, a cruise ship is a completely different scenario. We don't know the epidemiology of what this looks like. I'm worried about
those folks on board. In terms of Andes Hantavirus, as far as we know, this seems to be the only version of this virus. There are 40 to 50 different
types of Hantavirus. This seems to be the only one that we know that can transmit human to human, but we haven't seen a whole host of this, and I
think we're going to end up learning a lot in the coming days and weeks on how efficiently it spreads.
That being said, a cruise ship is not the ideal place for anyone to be right now, so I'm glad that they're able to get those folks off.
SCIUTTO: You had quite direct experience of the Ebola outbreak, and of course, folks' minds are going to the COVID pandemic, and I know this is
not a pandemic, but does this threat resemble that threat more than COVID?
DR. SPENCER: I would say that I'm not at all concerned about Hantavirus becoming thousands or tens of thousands of cases. I am not at all concerned
about Hantavirus becoming the next pandemic. What I'm concerned about is the gaps that it is revealing, and particularly the United States and the
destruction and dismantling over the past year of the coordination that we used to do internationally. Most folks don't know right now, the CDC still
isn't allowed to talk to the WHO. They had to ask for an exemption here.
SCIUTTO: Wow.
DR. SPENCER: There are incredible people still left at the CDC, but the agency has been hollowed out. Most of the leadership at the CDC, those
leadership roles are either empty or people have only been in them for a short period of time. We don't even have a dedicated leader. The guy at the
NIH is also leading the CDC
And so, even though we have incredible folks that can do this bread-and- butter public health work very well, we've lost a lot of them over the past year, and we need to rebuild that capacity. That concerns me way more than
this Hantavirus and what will likely be the next cases.
SCIUTTO: The CDC had to ask for an exemption to speak to the WHO about an outbreak. Goodness. Dr. Craig Spencer, thanks so much.
[18:20:00]
DR. SPENCER: And normally, we would be leading this. Yes. Thank you.
SCIUTTO: Well, in the past, right? That was the history. Dr. Craig Spencer, thanks so much. Still coming up on "The Brief," U.S. businesses are still
hiring despite higher energy costs. Details on a strong U.S. jobs report right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SCIUTTO: U.S. stocks rose on Friday with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both hitting yet new record highs. A stronger-than-expected April jobs report,
as well as solid corporate earnings, lifted investor sentiment. Wall Street continues to advance despite high oil prices. And continuing exchanges of
fire between Iran and the U.S. despite the claimed ceasefire. The average price of regular gasoline now stands at $4.55 a gallon here in the U.S. It
was just $3.15 a year ago.
The American labor market showing some resilience, though. The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, topping economists' expectations of 65,000.
Much of the hiring came from retail, transportation, and warehousing, while tech, finance, government, and manufacturing all lost jobs. Wage growth
stayed slightly above inflation for now. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent.
Joe Brusuelas joins me now. He's the economist -- chief economist at RSM. Joe, thanks so much for taking the time.
JOE BRUSUELAS, PRINCIPAL AND CHIEF ECONOMIST, RSM: Thanks for having me on, Jim.
SCIUTTO: This number, of course, beat expectations. Economists still, though, describe the labor market as frozen. What are they seeing that the
top-line number is missing?
BRUSUELAS: Well, I think if you think back to some of those lessons we learned when we were young about not judging a book by its cover, we got a
very shiny, stylized increase. It looks good on the top line, but once you lift up the hood, take a look at the underlying engine, there are some real
issues here.
I think the big takeaway is almost all the jobs that are being created are in the low-paying area of the economy. And that's where the real problem
is, especially because the economy is absorbing a historic supply shock that when we get to next week, all of a sudden, we're going to go from,
hey, we have a very steady and stable employment market, to wait a second. Once we adjust inflation or wages for inflation, it's negative, and that's
where we're going to be in the April, May, and June data.
[18:25:00]
And that's why economists are sort of being very conservative about how they approach the data just three months into the war.
SCIUTTO: Yes. And I wonder if you see similar warning signs in GDP growth data, because when you look at Q4 and quarter one, 2026 numbers, they were
not great. Q4, 0.5 percent, I believe, and Q1, 2 percent annualized rate. I mean, is that the real story of the U.S. economy?
BRUSUELAS: Well, I think the real story of the U.S. economy is you take a look at that 2 percent growth rate in the first quarter of the year, almost
two-thirds of it was driven by A.I. Once you exclude A.I. and tech, you've got an economy growing around half a percent per annum.
It's one of the reasons why two weeks into the war, once we were able to run what we call our shock models, that's the impact of rising oil and
gasoline prices on the economy. We downgraded our 2026 GDP data estimate from 2.4 percent to 1.7 percent. You'll rarely see economists make such
large downward revisions, but that's where we are.
And, you know, this is one of these times, Jim, where if you talk to economists or people who work in finance who are extremely bullish,
especially around the economy and the stock market, the public just doesn't see it. You know why? They're the ones absorbing the burden of adjustment
due to that shock.
SCIUTTO: So, I mean, why are the markets setting records every day? I mean, is it purely driven by A.I. investment? Is it getting beyond the state of
the economy? Because, of course, inflation isn't going anywhere either.
BRUSUELAS: It's a couple of things. One is that the tax cuts and A.I. provide a very healthy tailwind. The equity markets via the upper 40
percent of income earners in the United States that are responsible for close to 70 percent of all spending, that's also a tailwind. And that's
just masking that burden of adjustment that's going on in the middle class, the working class and the working poor.
SCIUTTO: Yes. K-shaped, as they say. Joe Brusuelas, thanks so much for joining.
BRUSUELAS: It is. Thank you.
SCIUTTO: Checking some of today's other business headlines, U.S. consumer sentiment, speaking of potential warning signs, fell this month to a new
record low. It is now the lowest level since the University of Michigan began tracking it back in 1952. The survey's director says the decline
reflects pressure from high gas prices and the effect of terrorists. Analysts say that sentiment unlikely to improve meaningfully until fuel
prices fall and supply disruptions ease.
ABC is accusing federal regulators of threatening free speech. It says the Federal Communication Commission has no business investigating its daytime
talk show, The View. The FCC argues that the show must give equal time to political guests. The network said in a letter that the FCC is undermining
longstanding law and threatening to chill political speech.
Shares of Intel jumped 14 percent on Friday, this after a report that it reached a preliminary agreement with Apple to manufacture some chips for
the iPhone maker. Intel stock is up more than 200 percent so far this year.
Coming up, a new ruling which will have a huge impact on this year's midterm elections. Virginia's Supreme Court blocks a redistricting plan by
Democrats. We break down exactly what it means.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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SCIUTTO: Welcome back to "The Brief." I'm Jim Sciutto. Here are the international headlines we're watching today.
A fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran remains in place, U.S. officials say, despite what we're seeing, a limited exchange of fire
between the U.S. and Iran. That's how the Iranian state media is describing it, but it's the second day in a row. The U.S. military says it disabled
two Iranian flag tankers in the Gulf of Oman that were trying to bypass the blockade. Iran's foreign minister denounced strikes yesterday by the U.S.
He called them a reckless military adventure.
In England, the results of local elections have handed the far-right Reform Party historic gains. The controversial leader of Reform U.K., Nigel
Farage, says his anti-immigration policy is here to stay. The results are a blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who's been under pressure to resign
over his handling of Peter Mendelsohn's appointment as British ambassador to the U.S.
The Pentagon has released a batch of declassified government files on UFOs at the direction of President Trump. The files include recent reports as
well as some dating back to the 1940s. Some of the material was previously released by the FBI. This version has fewer redactions.
Democrats received a huge blow in their ongoing redistricting battle with Republicans. Today, Virginia Supreme Court struck down a redistricting plan
for the state that would have helped Democrats pick up as many as four U.S. House seats in November's midterm elections. The measure was approved by
Virginia voters last month. The court ruled that the way the referendum was held was unconstitutional.
Let's bring in CNN Senior Political Analyst Ron Brownstein. And, Ron, I don't have to tell you, this is Virginia. Democrats in Virginia, much like
in California, responding to what began with a rare mid-decade, really unprecedented mid-decade redistricting by Republicans. What's your reaction
to this ruling? Is there a fair and level playing field for redistricting in states in this country right now?
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: No. I mean, look, this is going to make it harder for Democrats to win back the House, but not
insurmountable. You know, it's going to be a short-term partisan advantage for Republicans when all the dust settles from the redistricting wars.
Maybe as many as nine seats, probably, Jim, a few less than that, because they're not going to win all of those that they targeted in this in this
environment.
That's not enough in all likelihood to prevent Democrats from winning the House. President Trump's approval rating doesn't improve from where it is
now around 40 percent. But the long-term civic damage to the political institutions and the fundamental cohesion of the country of this
redistricting war, it's really hard to, you know, calculate how high that is going to be. There's just a mismatch here between what I think in the
end is going to be pretty small partisan advantage once blue states respond and the civic damage, which is going to be enormous.
SCIUTTO: So, for our audience who doesn't who hasn't been tracking this as closely, you first had Republican states, Texas and others redraw their
maps again, mid-decade, not with a new census. Democrats responded, California, Virginia, elsewhere. Then you have the Supreme Court decision
basically dismantling the Voting Rights Act, which now is allowing Southern states to basically write out black majority districts, giving them another
advantage.
[18:35:00]
What happens now in blue states, if not prior to the 2026 midterms, prior to 2028? Are they going to redraw in their own way?
BROWNSTEIN: Almost certainly. I mean, what people what most people don't recognize is that, you know, we have 25 states that voted all three times
for Donald Trump. They're basically the red states. They control 185 House seats.
The 19 states that voted three times against Donald Trump, they also control 185 House seats. And even after what California did, there are
about three dozen more Republican held House seats in those 19 anti-Trump states. And although it will be difficult for them to act, I don't think
anybody else can act before 2026.
Certainly by 2028, the pressure is going to be insurmountable on places like Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Colorado, Maryland, Minnesota. If
Democrats gain unified control of the state government there, which seems possible to act, because what you're seeing in the in the red Southern
states is the biggest erasure of a black political power, really, since the unraveling of Reconstruction and the imposition of segregation in the late
19th century.
The states we're talking about, Alabama and Texas, 92 percent of their population growth has been since 2010 among minority adults. North
Carolina, over 80 percent. Tennessee, two thirds. Louisiana, all of it since 2010 has been among minorities. And yet, they are systematically
erasing minority political power with these actions.
So, yes, I think blue states are going to feel insurmountable pressure to respond. And that is just going to further, I think, unravel the already
fraying bonds, basically holding together the country.
SCIUTTO: Just a short time ago, state Democrats have filed an appeal to the Supreme Court of this decision on the Virginia referendum to redraw maps,
which, by the way, is it's a you know, we should note to folks, that's what many ask for. As I let the voters decide. But anyway, does that have any
chance, you know, before the Supreme Court of overturning this decision?
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, you would think that's pretty unlikely. Just remember, though, the argument that the Virginia state Supreme Court used to overturn
this vote was to say that the legislature began its process of scheduling the referendum after early voting had already begun in 2025.
In Louisiana right now, they are nullifying votes that have been cast, actual votes that have been cast right now, nullifying them, incinerating
them to start all over by redrawing these maps. Will the Louisiana state Supreme Court say that is inappropriate or unacceptable? You know, we'll
have to see.
Same thing in Florida, by the way, where you have a specific constitutional amendment against partisan gerrymandering. Will the Florida state Supreme
Court stop this gerrymander there? Probably not. Again, this narrows the pathway for Democrats, but still leaves them only needing probably to pick
up about 10 to 12 seats.
I would say roughly to win the House. And in this kind of environment, they should be able to do that. In 2028, we're going to see a lot more on both
sides. By the way, that fundamentally perverts the vision that the founders had for the House of Representatives. It was supposed to be the institution
of government closest to the people, most responsive to the people. And what we are going to do is systematically annihilate Republicans in blue
states, Democrats in red states, and leave it a very inflexible system where the only thing that moves are the few purple states that have not
gerrymandered their way to no competition.
SCIUTTO: Yes. I mean, already Congress had so few truly contested seats and now you're going to you're going to whittle that down. Ron Brownstein,
thanks so much.
BROWNSTEIN: Thanks for having me.
SCIUTTO: All right. So, let's get reaction now from one of the lawmakers affected by this. Democratic congressman from the state of Virginia, Suhas
Subramanyam. He represents the 10th Congressional District. Congressman, thanks so much for taking the time.
REP. SUHAS SUBRAMANYAM (D-VA): Thank you.
SCIUTTO: So, what do Virginia Democrats do now?
SUBRAMANYAM: As mentioned before, we're appealing to the Supreme Court of the United States. We think this ruling was not in compliance with the laws
that we have in the books. This ruling is truly strained logic. It's outrageous. It's shocking. They overturned the will of millions of
Virginians and two separate general assemblies. And they used, you know, really poor logic to get to that conclusion.
But we are where we are right now, which is one, we're going to repeal this ruling. Two, we're going to go into November. We're still going to pick up
seats in Virginia. Democrats will. And then we'll see what the General Assembly wants to do going to 2028.
[18:40:00]
I think a lot of my former colleagues in the General Assembly are upset about this and want to take action. But either way, this was a loss for
democracy.
And when you look at what other red states are doing, where there was no referendum, the people didn't have a choice. And you look at Virginia where
the people had a choice, but an activist judiciary decided to overturn them. It's a poor statement about our democracy today.
SCIUTTO: Given that the court overturned or rejected the referendum because of how it was held, is there a way the state might hold it differently
prior to 2028?
SUBRAMANYAM: Well, one way the General Assembly could do that is having a vote either this year or the beginning of next year, and then the following
year. And so, that going into 2028, they have a new mass in the books going into November. But it's up to them, really, whether they want to do that.
And if they do that, I think they will not be looking to build upon what we have now, which is 6-5. I believe we will have one or two seats this
November that will flip to Democrats either way.
SCIUTTO: OK. Let's look bigger picture now, because beyond this, again, this unprecedented mid-decade redistricting that's happening, you had the
Supreme Court that takes away another protection of the Voting Rights Act. So, you have Republican states in the South now drawing out, really out of
existence majority -- black majority districts in those states.
What is the Democratic Party's response going to be to that? Are you going to see redistricting in blue states along similar lines, but in reverse?
SUBRAMANYAM: I expect to see redistricting in blue states, and a lot of these blue states don't want to do it. The best solution is if Congress
passes law saying that all states should play by the same rules, which is nonpartisan, fair redistricting every 10 years.
But until we have that, and the only way we have that is with a Democratic majority and a Democratic president, but until we have that, blue states
will need to take action, and they will need to make sure that the playing field is even, because otherwise we will have a Congress like the current
Congress, where Republicans, because of gerrymandering in North Carolina, were able to have a slim majority.
And so, this Congress does not reflect the will of the people. That's why this Congress is historically unpopular, and this Congress has been a
rubber stamp to Donald Trump, and the only way to fix that is to have an even playing field.
SCIUTTO: Now, as you know, when the referendum was held, it was a pretty tight margin, right? There were clearly many Virginians who were not
comfortable with it. When you speak to your constituents about this, what is their impression? Do they look at this as a short-term solution in
response to Republican redrawing of districts, or do they see it as a just a bigger threat to the running of American democracy?
SUBRAMANYAM: Yes, my constituents saw it in two ways. One, some people were just uncomfortable with mid-decade redistricting altogether, and I
understand that because I've always fought for fair redistricting, but then they're seeing what's happening in other red states, where they are taking
out members of Congress, members of Congress of color, and trying to dilute the vote of minority voters with the Supreme Court undermining the Voting
Rights Act, and they said, we need to take action in Virginia.
And so, I understand the debate, and we had the debate in the General Assembly, and they voted for it twice, and then we had the debate in the
public, and the public voted for it, and it doesn't matter if it was a slim majority. It was a majority of one and a half million Virginians came out
in April where there was no major election, and they voted for this because they felt so strongly about making sure we had an even playing field going
into November, but this fight is not over.
Certainly, we're going to have these masks going in November unless this appeal is successful, and then after that, we'll see what happens going
into 2028.
SCIUTTO: Are you concerned that Democrats might not win back control?
SUBRAMANYAM: I'm pretty confident that Democrats will be in control of Congress next year, and the reason is because, one, some of this
redistricting in red states like Texas will backfire. We're seeing numbers shift anywhere from 8 to 15 points in favor of Democrats.
And so, Donald Trump is historically unpopular. Everything he's doing is unpopular. Even in my district, you know, I'm only won by four or five
points, and I've seen so many Republicans and so many Trump voters in my district really angry at this administration, and they came out and voted
yes on a referendum. And so, that's where people are at this point.
SCIUTTO: That's interesting. Congressman Suhas Subramanyam, we appreciate you joining.
SUBRAMANYAM: Thank you.
SCIUTTO: Coming up just after the break, hikers caught up in a deadly volcanic eruption in Indonesia running for their lives as ash spewed into
the sky. We have that story coming up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[18:45:00]
SCIUTTO: At least three people have been killed after an eruption on one of Indonesia's most active volcanoes. 20 climbers were on Mount Dukono at the
time, 17 brought down safely. Look at that eruption there. Emergency crews have not yet been able to recover the victims' bodies. Search operations
expected to pick up again on Saturday. Will Ripley has a story of exactly how this happened.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: These extraordinary videos show the moment the hikers suddenly realized the volcano behind them
is erupting. And you can see people running down the slopes of Indonesia's Mount Dukono, one of the country's most active volcanoes. You also see that
massive 33,000-foot column of ash more than six miles high in the sky. Authorities say hikers were near the crater when the volcano erupted Friday
morning local time. Teams are still working on the mountain after multiple casualties were reported.
Some survivors, authorities say, have already been evacuated. Others stayed behind to help rescuers search the dangerous terrain. The recovery
operation is complicated by the fact that there are continued eruptions and volcanic ash and falling rock near the summit.
Among the hikers were foreign tourists, including Singaporeans, the Indonesian authorities say. And one local mountain guide filmed the
eruption and says he felt deep tremors just moments before the blast. He also told CNN he saw rocks and gravel sliding down the volcano and
immediately ordered his clients to run. The guide says other hikers appeared to be dangerously close to the crater, some even filming videos
near the rim right before the eruption.
Authorities say Mount Dukono has been showing heightened activity for weeks. Authorities say warnings about the climbing ban have been widely
posted online and on signs near trail entrances. But local rescuers suspect some hikers may have entered through unmonitored access routes because the
volcano does not have an official registration checkpoint.
Indonesia's search and rescue agency says crews were first alerted after an emergency signal was detected from a Garmin device near the volcano.
Authorities are now investigating possible negligence by tour operators or individuals who entered the restricted zone anyway.
A dramatic rescue image released by Indonesia's National Search and Rescue Agency shows crews carrying injured hikers through thick forest on
stretchers. Mount Dukono sits along the Pacific Ring of Fire, one of the most volcanically active regions on earth.
Will Ripley, CNN, Taipei.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCIUTTO: Coming up after the break, a papal milestone. It's now been one year since Pope Leo became the head of the Catholic Church, the first
American. After the break, a look back at his first 12 months on the job and what might be coming next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[18:50:00]
SCIUTTO: Pope Leo is marking his first year as leader of the Catholic Church. He has already completed groundbreaking journeys across the African
continent as well as to Lebanon. Earlier today, he visited Naples and nearby Pompeii, praying and meeting with young Catholics. Christopher Lamb
looks back at the Pope's one year anniversary.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRISTOPHER LAMB, CNN VATICAN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): One year ago, the cardinals of the Catholic Church made history, electing the first American
Pope, Leo XIV. Born in Chicago, now on the chair of St. Peter.
During these first 12 months, Leo has emerged as a gentle but steady leader at a time of turbulence and a thorn in the side of the White House.
POPE LEO XIV: War is back in vogue and a zeal for war is spreading.
LAMB (voice-over): Speaking out forcefully against the war in Iran and riling President Donald Trump telling CNN how he wanted the conflict to
end.
POPE LEO XIV: I'm told that President Trump recently stated that he would like to end the war. Hopefully he's looking for an off ramp.
LAMB (voice-over): The president responding with an extraordinary broadside. But Leo seemingly unfazed.
POPE LEO XIV: I have no fear of neither the Trump administration.
LAMB (voice-over): Continuing to speak out forcefully during his visit to Africa, cementing himself as a global leader and a counterweight to the
U.S. president. An American pope formed in Peru, spending years among the poor and marginalized in Latin America. A bridge builder and unifier and
not someone looking for a fight. Those who know him best say he hasn't changed.
LAMB: I'm just curious, you know, a year on since Leo's election, is the pope still the same to you?
FATHER JOSEPH FARRELL, HEAD OF AUGUSTINIAN ORDER AND FRIEND OF POPE LEO: He is, yes. He still has a wonderful sense of humor. He is untiring energy. It
still is a bit unbelievable to see him and yet it makes so much sense for us. One of our friars says to me it looks like he went to pope school.
LAMB (voice-over): But global conflicts are weighing heavily on the pontiff.
FARRELL: His response has been very clear. I have felt very clear that the way towards resolution of finding solutions is not with arms, it's not with
weapons. It's to be disarmed and disarming.
LAMB (voice-over): And the Trump administration appears keen to mend some diplomatic fences. With Secretary of State Marco Rubio sitting down with
the pope on Thursday, Leo has adopted his own style as pope, more formal than his predecessor and now living in the Apostolic Palace, but pushing
ahead on Pope Francis' priorities on immigration and against capital punishment.
POPE LEO XIV: And I likewise offer my support to those who advocate for the abolition of the death penalty in the United States of America and around
the world.
[18:55:00]
LAMB (voice-over): He's brought an American flavor to the papacy. Whether it's joking about baseball results being handed deep dish pizza or his
favorite candy peeps. The early months have seen him adjust to his extraordinary new role.
And Leo, at 70, can afford to play the long game. But on his one-year anniversary, he's a pope who has established himself with a quiet presence
and a strong message.
Christopher Lamb, CNN, Rome.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCIUTTO: We do have new reporting at CNN on the ongoing Iran War, and a key question, how much the war has degraded but not destroyed Iran's military
capabilities?
You may remember CNN previously reported a U.S. intelligence assessment that roughly half of Iran's missile launchers and missiles survived U.S.
strikes. Well, now there's a new report which has increased that to two- thirds or even more, according to sources familiar with the intelligence. That is, Iran retaining two-thirds or more of its missile capability.
How? Partially due to the ongoing ceasefire giving time for Iran to dig out launchers that might have been buried in bunkers by previous strikes. It is
certainly less damage to Iran's military capabilities than the Trump administration has claimed.
That's all for us tonight. Thanks so much for joining. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington. You've been watching "The Brief." Please do stay with CNN.
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