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The Brief with Jim Sciutto

CNN International: Trump Says Politics Won't Rush U.S. Into Iran Deal; Trump Threatens to "Blow Up" Oman Over Strait of Hormuz; NY, NJ Attorneys General Probe FIFA Over Ticket Prices; Report: Ukraine Holds Advantages Over Russia in War; Teams Look to Extract Five People Found Alive in Laos Cave. Aired 6-7p ET

Aired May 27, 2026 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[18:00:00]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR, "THE BRIEF": Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington and

you're watching "The Brief."

Just ahead this hour, President Trump says election day politics will not pressure him into making a deal with Iran. I speak to the authors of a new

report which finds that Ukraine now has the upper hand against Russia and that Kyiv's allies have a window of opportunity to help. And FIFA is now

under investigation by New York and New Jersey over the price of World Cup tickets.

We begin in Washington where President Trump says he will not be rushed into a peace deal with Iran.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: They thought they were going to outwait me, you know. We'll outwait him. He's got the midterms. I don't care about the

midterms. Look what happened last night. That was the prelude to the midterms. People understand it. They know that, very simple, Iran cannot

have a nuclear weapon. I'm doing that for the world. I'm not doing it just for us.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: Trump referring there to Tuesday's Republican Senate primary runoff in Texas where his candidate, the one he endorsed, won.

In today's Cabinet meeting, the president said the U.S. will watch over the Strait of Hormuz as part of any Iran agreement, adding, quote, "that

nobody's going to control it." This comes as the White House calls a draft memo reported by Iranian state media a fabrication. Iran's state TV claims

the U.S. would lift the blockade in return for Iran reopening the Strait back to pre-war levels of shipping.

The reported memo adds that Iran would manage the Strait in conjunction with Oman. That set off the president, who threatened to bomb Oman, which

is, of course, an ally of the U.S.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: The Strait is going to be open to everybody.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And who would control it?

TRUMP: It's international waters. Nobody's going to control it. We're going to watch over it. We'll watch over it. But nobody's going to control

it. That's part of the negotiation that we have. They would like to control it. Nobody's going to control it. It's international waters. And Oman will

behave just like everybody else, or we'll have to blow them up. They understand that. They'll be fine.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: Have to blow them up. Joining me now, Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. First there, to the

president's claim here, the midterm elections are not moving his hand at all in negotiations with Iran. Do you buy that argument?

LARRY SABATO, CENTER FOR POLITICS DIRECTOR, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: No, I'm stifling the laugh, Jim, because whether he cares or not, all the

people around him, particularly other elected officials, Congress and otherwise, have been pushing him hard about the midterms. They realize

they're in deep trouble, and most of it is due to Donald Trump.

SCIUTTO: OK. So, when you look at the results of these midterms, Trump certainly shows his control over the party. He's very capable in many

states of punishing anybody who stood in his way and picking the folks that he endorses. They tend to win. Is that putting Republicans in a weaker or

stronger position in the midterms in the fall?

SABATO: Oh, I think it's almost certain that it's a weaker position. Look, his iron grip on the GOP continues. It's always been strong. If anything,

it's gotten stronger. This group, this MAGA group, controls the Republican Party at the statewide and local level, sometimes top to bottom almost

everywhere across the country as well as nationally.

But their problem is, at most, at most, that's 40 percent of the electorate. In most states, it's lower than that. What about the Democrats?

They're up to 95 percent opposition. Normally, it's 85 to 90 percent. It's 95 percent now. And independents who normally split around 55-45 in one

direction or the other, 70 percent of them dislike Trump, dislike this war, and are fuming about high prices.

[18:05:00]

So, you know, it doesn't take a mathematician to figure out things aren't looking good for the Republicans in November.

SCIUTTO: Now, of course, Republican Party has done its best to add safe seats or what it hopes are safe seats by this unprecedented mid-decade

redistricting. When you look at the final tally of that redistricting, plus the effect of the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act, where does

that leave Republicans in the House? In your view, still likely to lose it, but perhaps by less?

SABATO: Yes, that summarizes it pretty well. Probably the Republicans will maneuver to gain seven, eight, maybe nine seats. They've had setbacks, as

you know, this week in South Carolina and at least a temporary setback in Alabama. So, seven, eight, nine seats.

But Democrats are on track probably to get into the mid to upper 220s. It takes 218 to control. They're in the mid-220s, maybe upper 220s. And the

history of midterms is that the out-of-power party actually gains steam as you get closer to the end of the campaign. You know, assuming that

inflation prices are still bad and, God forbid, the war with Iran is still continuing, it's difficult to see how Republicans could possibly hold the

House.

SCIUTTO: Now, the Senate, of course, is different, more competitive. But do you see, for instance, with a Ken Paxton running against a Talarico in

Texas? I mean, I've heard, as you have for years, you know, Democratic dreams of turning Texas blue. But when you look at the whole slate of

Senate races, where do you put Democrats' chances right now of winning the Senate?

SABATO: 50-50, no better than that, Jim. I see a lot of happy talk. And that's true in Texas as well, though I'll certainly admit and agree with

the fact that James Talarico is close to 50 percent. He's about where the only semi-successful Democratic candidate statewide in modern history in

Texas, Beto O'Rourke, in 2018 was in his race against Senator Ted Cruz in 2018.

It'll be a miracle if he wins. Very occasionally in politics, there are miracles. If there's a big blue wave, then Talarico can win in Texas.

Democrats have a much better chance in some other states that are not so heavily Republican as Texas is. But, you know, it's on the board. It's on

the board.

SCIUTTO: It'll be worth watching that night. Larry Sabato, thanks so much for joining.

SABATO: Thanks, Jim.

SCIUTTO: All right. So, to the progress of war in Iran now. Aaron David Miller joins us, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International

Peace. Former Middle East negotiator for the U.S. State Department. Aaron David Miller, always good to have you.

AARON DAVID MILLER, SENIOR FELLOW, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE AND FORMER MIDDLE EAST NEGOTIATOR, U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT: Great to

be here with you, Jim, always.

SCIUTTO: The administration keeps saying a deal is close. I mean, they've been saying that for some time. Is the administration posturing progress

just to preserve the appearance and to some degree for domestic political reasons, perhaps also with an eye to the oil market, that the war is close

to a definitive end?

MILLER: No, and I'm not sure that's what we're talking about, Jim. I think we're really talking about extending the ceasefire for 30 to 60 days on the

basis of a memorandum of understanding, hopefully not a memorandum of misunderstanding, which eases the blockade, eases the opening of the

Straits and kicks most of every issue.

And there may be intent. The Iranians could say, sure, we want to intend to discuss our nuclear infrastructure. And the administration will say, and we

will intend to discuss unfreezing your assets. I think you've bought yourself, if this thing actually works, 30, 60 days to test, Jim, to

determine whether or not the myriad of issues, each of which contains a universe of complexity and detail, can be bridged.

I don't think we're talking about ending the war. We're talking about extending the ceasefire based on a one-page, two-page framework agreement

to test the proposition that you can actually really produce an actual agreement, not something on the back of a cocktail napkin or a 20-point

Gaza plan. That's what I think. That's what I think the problem is.

And I think there's no trust, zero confidence, and a real view on the part of both the Trump administration and the guys running this brutal

authoritarian military dictatorship, that they think time really is on their side and they have a capacity to escalate if the other side doesn't

bend.

SCIUTTO: Now, if you look at the Gaza precedent here, where you get a ceasefire, you punt on the major issues, but those major issues still many

months later are not resolved. Is a possible, even probable, outcome here of just a kind of extended ceasefire where you never get to those big

issues, if there is no trust?

[18:10:00]

MILLER: I mean, that would really depend on how serious the Iranians and the Americans are about addressing issues like what to do about Iran's 11

tons of enriched uranium at varying levels, what to do about the HEU, what to do about frozen assets. Are the Iranians going to demand a set of new

conditions with respect to the Straits?

I'm thinking where this is going is you may get a one-page agreement. The Straits will be eased into opening, eased into opening. It's going to take

weeks to do it, even if the Iranians said we'll open them up tomorrow unconditionally. The blockade will be eased, and the Americans and the

Iranians will spend, hopefully, will spend the next 30 to 60 to 90 days involved in what you and I would regard as a serious negotiation.

You can't do that on a cell phone, Jim. You can't do it through intermediaries. You can't do it, as I mentioned, on the back of a cocktail

napkin. You need real -- I can't believe I'm even saying this. You need real negotiations between the two sides who are serious. I don't know. I

have no idea whether that pertains.

SCIUTTO: I mean, the thing is, you know, you look at a whole host of international disagreements, effort to end the Ukraine war, you know, a

thousand trade back-and-forth battles with nations, the Gaza negotiations, now this. I don't see any lasting resolution to any of those issues, right?

MILLER: None. None.

SCIUTTO: And you might have a situation where the other side of the table, the folks on the other side of the table start to look at the clock and

say, how long will Trump be in power?

MILLER: I mean, I think that's plausible. I do think the Iranians don't want to go back to the period February 28th to April 7th. I think they're

hurting. I think they want to create new realities post-conflict that will allow them, again, the guys who control the money, the guns, the

information, and the oil. That's who runs Iran right now. They're going to need huge amounts of reconstruction. They want assets unfrozen. They don't

want to be in a constant state of war with the United States or, frankly, with Israel.

So, no, I think they're up for a deal. I just think we are detached from reality, and we believe that this bunch is going to compromise on their

core issues. Because for Trump, Jim, let's be clear, this is not an existential issue. Life will go on. He's got the golf club. He's got two

more years in the presidency. He's got the Qatari aircraft coming.

For the guys in Tehran, it's about their capacity to continue to govern, to rule, and the obvious of what happens if they, in fact, can't, and they

actually lose control. So, you know, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, the U.S. and Iran, you could invite one of the best negotiators that I ever

worked for, James Baker, back and give him these assignments. It would be a tough lift for him. It's certainly a tough lift for the president's best

friend, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

SCIUTTO: Well, I know you'll be watching closely. Aaron David Miller, thanks so much for joining.

MILLER: Thanks so much, Jim. Take care.

SCIUTTO: Well, my next guest says that President Trump led the United States into a, quote, "war of choice against Iran." Arizona Congressman

Greg Stanton has advocated for a war powers resolution to limit the president's ability to wage war, to continue to wage war in Iran. Joining

me now, Arizona Congressman Greg Stanton. Thanks so much for taking the time.

REP. GREG STANTON (D-AZ): Thank you. Thank you for having me on. Thank you.

SCIUTTO: So, when you listen to that analysis there, Aaron David Miller is a quite experienced Middle East negotiator. He knows the difficulties of

getting to actual agreements, saying that, you know, the folks on the other side of the table don't look at Trump as a serious negotiator, even with

all the military might at his disposal.

Do you think the American people have to prepare themselves for sort of an not an endless war, but a war without any clear resolution?

STANTON: Well, right. The American people are still wondering, what is our goal? What is our objective with this war of choice in Iran? The president

of the United States has not directly addressed that fundamental issue with the American people.

What the American people know is that this war of choice is causing them to have increased costs in the form of rapidly rising gas prices at the pump.

The American people and our allies around the world are wondering, what are we doing? By the way, we did have an agreement with Iran to limit their

nuclear capabilities. And the president took us out of that agreement because he wanted to score some points, I guess, with the far-right of his

own party. So, he took us out of the preexisting agreement.

[18:20:00]

In the meantime, of course, Iran has moved forward with enriched uranium to a very dangerous level. And the president should have known that if that

was his goal, we were going to need to have boots on the ground. But boots on the ground was never going to be acceptable to the American people. We

do not want another forever war.

And now, he's shown that Iran can actually fairly easily control the Strait of Hormuz, thereby disrupting the world economy. So, this war of choice was

a mistake on so many levels. And the American people are really smart. They see right through this president and the poor choices that he has made.

SCIUTTO: You have long advocated for Congress to act and exercise a limit to the president's war powers. And they finally got to a vote. But, of

course, it went nowhere in the Senate. Is a binding vote on the president's war powers any closer to becoming a reality?

STANTON: Yes. As you know, on the House side, we had the votes to pass a war powers resolution because of that fact. And I guess the Republicans

thought it would have been embarrassing to President Trump. Instead of moving forward with that vote, they decided to pull it from the agenda. And

it'll be the first thing on the agenda when we get back next week.

But, yes, it's not me saying I support war powers. It's the United States Constitution. The president of the United States, one person cannot drag

the United States into a war. War has to be declared by the United States Congress. So, this is not an optional thing or a nice thing to have, it is

constitutionally required that Congress take a vote on moving forward with a war on behalf of the United States of America.

SCIUTTO: OK. I want to talk about a domestic U.S. issue now, and that is continued ICE detentions in this country, but specifically the conditions

inside ICE detention centers. Yesterday, as you know, there were protesters clashing outside a center in New Jersey.

You visited the Dilley Detention Center in Texas yesterday, which is the only migrant family detention center we should note for our viewers here.

Can you tell us what you saw there, what you witnessed?

STANTON: Well, it's a prison. These detention centers are effectively prisons. The Dilley Detention Center is a bunch of kind of prefabricated

buildings out in the middle of a field in Texas. It could hold, I think, 2,500 people. It is there for the purpose of families and single women. So,

they're not in detention centers throughout the throughout the country. And it was a very difficult thing to see.

Let me give you an example. At -- when we visited yesterday, there were about 100 children -- almost 100 children at the facility of all different

ages. ICE is required to provide these children some level of education because sometimes the stays can extend up to six months or even longer. And

yet, the subcontractor that's supposed to provide education services only had two certified teachers at the facility. So, it's clear that these

students aren't getting the education that they deserve.

Another very disturbing thing is they are now taking DNA of each and every person that enters the Dilley Detention Center of both adults and children.

But when asked questions about what they do with that DNA, do they hold it in the cloud? Do they destroy that information? People on the ground were

unclear. They didn't know what was supposed to be done with that information. That's very serious, because when you're taking someone's DNA,

maybe for a good purpose of trying to identify parent and child, you have to provide 100 percent clarity both to those family members and to the

country what you are doing with those people's DNA. Right now, there's a lack of clarity in that regard.

SCIUTTO: Back in April, you wrote to Secretary Mullen -- Homeland Security Secretary Mullen, demanding answers on the poor conditions in an Arizona

ICE detention facility. Did you ever get a response? Has there been any change in behavior?

STANTON: Not that I can tell. Now, I have spent multiple impromptu visits going to the detention facility at Mesa Gateway Airport, where detainees

are supposed to have short-term stays as they are waiting for their airplane before they are deported.

The problem is, is that instead of the 12-hour stay, which is the limit for that facility, that's what it was built for. Instead, detainees are staying

three days and even more, sometimes up to as many as 10 days on a concrete floor with in holding cells in which dozens and dozens of people could be

in there with a single a single toilet. That's a real problem.

There's no medical team on site. So, medical emergencies have to be handed by -- handled by the City of Mesa.

[18:20:00]

With that number of detainees, there's sometimes hundreds and hundreds of detainees, they should have a medical team on site. We were told by the

people on the ground that the toilets often overflow. And so, people are staying in these holding cells with an overflowing toilet -- over flooding

toilet, that could be a real health issue for those detainees. And so, there are numerous issues that need to be resolved.

But here's the bottom line. I put forward a bill that says 12 hours should mean 12 hours. There's no ICE exception for life safety issues or health

issues for these detainees. So, if a building was built for 12-hour stays, that should be the limit. If they can't do it, they should go back to a

place that is more appropriate for longer-term stays.

SCIUTTO: When you look at the collection of examples you've cited there, whether it be a shortage of teachers at one facility to meet requirements

for education to just bad plumbing, right? Do you get the sense it's deliberate, deliberate mistreatment?

STANTON: Look, the Trump administration is engaging in mass deportation. They promised the American people that it was going to be targeted

enforcement, the so-called worst of the worst violent offenders. That's not what's happening in the United States of America.

They are trying so desperately to catch up by buying these warehouses all over America, including in my community outside of Phoenix. They're buying

these warehouses for cash money well above market rate. And they haven't even thought about how they're going to do the renovations necessary, the

life safety renovations. They're not even working with the local community.

So, purposeful or not, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter. They weren't ready for the type of mass deportation that this administration is

doing. And the American people are reacting rightfully so very negatively because they see their neighbors, their family members, their friends,

people go to church with who have committed no crimes, who have been in the United States for in many cases decades, often who are business owners that

are being detained and deported from this country.

And there is no policy of the United States where people in that situation should be deported. In fact, when we finally pass comprehensive immigration

reform next year, when Democrats are in the majority, we're going to have strong border security.

But in addition, we're going to have pathways to citizenship for people in these situations. So, instead of deporting them, we're going to go in the

opposite direction. People who have violent histories, that's a whole different ballgame. They should be deported. But that's not what we're

seeing from this administration. And the American people are very angry about it.

SCIUTTO: Congressman Greg Stanton, thanks so much for joining.

STANTON: Thank you so much.

SCIUTTO: Still ahead, a high-profile investigation into FIFA, why New York and New Jersey are launching the investigation just weeks before the start

of the World Cup.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:25:00]

SCIUTTO: Welcome back. In today's Business Breakout, another record- breaking day on Wall Street. All the major averages finished at all-time highs, once again, as oil prices dropped. Brent Crude fell more than four

and a half percent. U.S. Crude is now trading below $90 a barrel.

The attorneys general of New York and New Jersey are launching an investigation into World Cup ticket pricing just two weeks before the

competition kicks off. They are demanding documents from tournament organizer FIFA about pricing practices at New Jersey's MetLife Stadium,

where many of the games will be played, including the final.

New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport says, quote, "FIFA has turned buying a ticket to the World Cup into a gauntlet of confusion, fake

scarcity and impossibly high prices."

The probe will investigate, among other things, whether fans may have been misled over the exact locations of their seats. FIFA did not immediately

respond to CNN's request for comment.

Joining me now, CNN legal analyst Joey Jackson. Joey, good to have you.

JOEY JACKSON, CNN LEGAL ANALYST AND CRIMINAL DEFENSE ATTORNEY AND FORMER PROSECUTOR: Good to be with you, Jim.

SCIUTTO: All right. So, there are two accusations, allegations at the core of the case. The first is going under a violation of the consumer

protection law, which stops all deceptive or unfair trade practices. They're saying, in effect, that people bought tickets, they were told it

was in a certain zone, and then FIFA kind of moved that zone.

So, it's not quite as good a view of the game as they thought when they paid all this money for the tickets. Do the attorneys general have a good

case on that basis?

JACKSON: It certainly looks to be. And I think what you described is the old bait and switch, right? It's important to understand in talking about

this, that this is a civil probe. It's not a criminal probe. What's the difference? A civil probe really looks at what you hit on, which is

consumer practices and whether those practices were fair, whether they were reasonable, and whether people have been misled.

But on its face, it appears to be, and again, when I say on its face, there's an investigation that's ongoing. There have been subpoenas that

have been issued looking for information with respect to the tickets released with regard to what those tickets were, with respect to the public

statements, et cetera, and what consumers thought they were getting versus what they actually did get.

But on its face, in the event that you're selling a ticket, a consumer has a right to expect the benefit of their bargain. They apparently, Jim, had

categories, category one, two, three, and four. And if I purchased a ticket for category one, that's where I should be. It shouldn't be after the fact,

but you revise your map and, oh, by the way, you're in category one, but you're not really in category one because we've sold other additional

tickets that have people closer that, by the way, weren't available at the time you purchased your ticket.

In addition to that, there should not have been artificially inflated prices. That is, the attorney generals are looking into whether there was

this what's called fake scarcity. We operate, of course, in economics on supply and demand. If the demand is high and the supply is low, what

happens to prices? They're going to be higher.

And so, it's going to be examined whether they created, FIFA did this fake scarcity where they would release a minimal amount of tickets. There'd be

this ticket scare. Oh, we got to get tickets. Oh, by the way, we have another amount of tickets that's being released.

So, I think if consumers were taken advantage of, they certainly should be compensated for that. And I think that as a result of this investigation,

it'll bear fruit on what those practices were. Were people deceived? And did they, in fact, that is ticket purchasers, get the benefit of their

bargain?

SCIUTTO: It's not the first time we've seen accusations of fake scarcity. And we've seen ticket, other ticket agencies lose cases, you know, based on

that accusation. What does it take to prove -- for the state attorney's general to prove that that's what happened here?

JACKSON: Yes. So, not much, quite frankly. Remember, since we're not dealing with criminality, we're dealing with a different standard of proof.

We're not dealing with beyond a reasonable doubt. Was this done? No, it's not the standard. Is it more likely than not that this occurred?

And it would seem to me that based upon the documentary evidence that will be produced, Jim, with the subpoenas, you'll be able to establish what did

ticket purchasers actually purchase? Did they get what they purchased? Were tickets held back? Were they held back for the purpose of inflating the

price artificially? When did that happen? Who did it happen to? What was the nature of this? Were they artificially inflated? Were people given

false information? Were there false representations? Was there misrepresentation? Was there fraud?

[18:30:00]

So, I think all of that will come out through the documents, but I think it's important to note that because it's not criminal, the essence of the

remedy, how people will be made whole, is really in the effect, really giving them back the money that was lost as a result. But be sure that

FIFA, in the event they did wrong, Jim, will be fined significantly in addition to having to disgorge, that is, give up the massive profits they

allegedly would have taken in. So, we'll see what this investigation --

SCIUTTO: I mean, the worries I would have if I bought a ticket already would be that, OK, maybe, even if you win, right, how much money actually

comes my way? How much goes to the lawyers, right? And when does it come? Because a lot of these settlements where -- well, you never see much, but

we'll see. Joey Jackson, thanks so much for joining.

JACKSON: Thanks, Jim. Absolutely.

SCIUTTO: The war in Ukraine may be entering a completely new phase, a new analysis reveals that Russia is making fewer gains and Ukraine is actually

regaining some ground. We're going to hear from the report's authors, the case that they make, right after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCIUTTO: Welcome back to "The Brief." I'm Jim Sciutto, and here are the international headlines we're watching today.

President Donald Trump says, quote, "he doesn't care about the midterms" and is therefore in no rush to make a deal with Iran to end the war. During

a cabinet meeting, the president said the U.S. would be prepared to blow up Oman as well if it does not cooperate with U.S. plans for reopening the

Strait of Hormuz. Of course, Oman is a longtime U.S. ally.

Matthew Perry's personal assistant has been sentenced to 41 months in prison for his role in the actor's death. The "Friends" star died in 2023

after receiving a lethal dose of ketamine from Kenneth Iwamasa. As part of his plea agreement, Iwamasa provided key evidence against other defendants

in the case.

[18:35:00]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has written to President Trump and to Congress to secure more military assistance, especially air defense

missiles. This, as Russia threatens yet new attacks on Kyiv, in his letter, Zelenskyy says Ukraine relies almost exclusively on U.S.-made Patriot

systems to intercept Russian ballistic missiles.

Well, a new report has found that Ukraine is gaining an upper hand in its ongoing defense of Russia's ongoing invasion, at least for now. It finds

that the war is far from a stalemate, even though neither side is making a decisive strategic move.

The map shows the current situation. In yellow, territory regained by Ukraine, and in red, territory occupied and now claimed by Russia. The

report by the study of the Institute for the Study of War says that Russia's rate of advance has plummeted. It's losing more soldiers to make

fewer gains, and that Ukraine is starting to regain ground, more ground than it's losing for the first time in three years.

So, why, exactly? The report cites technological innovation and Ukraine's ability to carry out intermediate-range strikes on Russian positions inside

Russia. Here, you're seeing Ukrainian drone technology. However, there is a warning in the report that Russia could develop, and often does,

countermeasures for those Ukrainian advancements. So, for now, the analysis finds that Ukraine's international allies have a rare but fleeting chance

to help Ukraine while it has that upper hand.

I'm joined now by the authors of that report, Kateryna Stepanenko and George Barros. Good to have you both. Thanks so much for joining.

KATERYNA STEPANENKO, RUSSIA TEAM LEAD, INST. FOR THE STUDY OF WAR: Thank you so much for having us.

GEORGE BARROS, DIRECTOR OF INNOVATION AND OPEN SOURCE TRADECRAFT, INST. FOR THE STUDY OF WAR: Thanks for having us, Jim.

SCIUTTO: So, George, just in shorthand to begin, because I want to dive into the details here. Big picture, should our viewers listening now say,

huh, has the tide of this war turned in Ukraine's favor?

BARROS: So, we don't call it a turning point for the war deliberately. We're saying we're in a new phase, and these words really matter. What I

mean by this is as follows. If you look at the map of the war and the control of terrain from 2023 to present, it's barely changed. You really

can't even see a difference unless you look at it with a microscope.

But here's the thing that's interesting. Since 2023 until just recently, the war has had a positional nature, meaning neither side have been able to

use tanks for sort of World War II-style mechanized drives because the drone threats have denied each other from doing that. But a very curious

thing happened starting this spring.

We started to see a new pattern of the Ukrainians actually getting vehicles back into the fight in new and novel ways that were categorically

impossible 12 months ago. So, we asked ourselves, why is that? Why are tanks and other personnel carriers making a new debut on the battlefield?

And we thought that that was sort of an outdated technology. And what we -- the result is the paper that we looked at, we look at the various different

reasons for how that is happening and some of the implications.

SCIUTTO: OK. Kateryna, you argue that Russia has tried to fight a war of attrition where they gradually not just eat up Ukrainian resources, but

also wade out Ukraine and the West. But your report says that's not working. What changed to, in effect, undermine that Russian war plan?

STEPANENKO: You're exactly right. The Russian theory of victory is that the Kremlin anticipated that it can outlast and out-attrit Ukrainian

forces, essentially keeping to push, advancing 100 meters at a time in an effort to paint a picture that they're actually achieving victories on the

battlefield.

Now, Ukrainians are flipping the script. They found vulnerabilities in Russian infiltration tactics and in the way that the Russians were

advancing on the battlefield. And instead of keeping on with this positional warfare, they're finding vulnerabilities in the Russian drone

barriers and drone defenses, as well as finding vulnerabilities in Russian logistics.

The biggest inflection that we have observed is the effectiveness of the Ukrainian intermediate drone range strikes, which are now targeting a very

key highway that connects occupied southern Ukraine, as well as occupied Crimea, with mainland Russia at distances of 100 to 160 kilometers.

This is a critical vulnerability for the Russians, as by degrading Russian logistics, Ukrainian forces are ensuring that Russians cannot bring

additional troops and additional equipment to the front line in the necessary temple.

[18:40:00]

SCIUTTO: George, the headline analysis of the Ukraine war is that drones have been defining and I know you talk a great deal about Ukraine's drone

innovations here, so just to dig down a little deeper on what you said earlier, how is Ukraine able to re-inject those kind of big targets, right,

of tanks and armored personnel carriers, despite that constant threat from above? What have they learned to allow them to do that?

BARROS: That's the million-dollar question. And what we're saying here is that they've not figured out the secret sauce exactly a hundred percent,

but they're experimenting and they're challenging it and they're being successful in part and parcel.

So, how are they doing it? A couple of factors. Number one, the Ukrainians are getting better at planning. They're thinking about not just how do we

more successfully shove our stuff into the Russians and try to make a dent, but they're thinking about, OK, how do we undermine the core foundations of

the Russian positions on the battlefield?

Like how do we destroy Russian drone operators or how do we ensure that even if the Russian drones are still a thing, we make them ineffective? So,

what we've seen were a series of shaping operations. Number one, the Russians have not been able to get their drones into the air quite as

easily because the Ukrainians have made it a task to kill their drone teams and hunt them down relentlessly, but also to do that in a geographically

intelligent way. How can we create a drone overmatch in a particular place in time so that when we fly our drones, there are no Russian drones that we

can get the overmatch?

The other thing that the Ukrainians are doing are conducting what we call suppression of enemy air defenses. There's been a six-month campaign, at

least six-month campaign, to try to take out Russian air defenses and radars to allow for these Ukrainian larger drones to go deeper and further

to deny the Russians the ability to resupply their troops. And it's really the art, it's not a science, it's the art of being able to amass these

different effects in space and time in geographically vulnerable places to then have a shot at being able to get vehicles back into the fight.

SCIUTTO: Kateryna, to Russia, is Russia's ability to adapt and its ability just to hold ground or try to gain ground, is it limited by its inability

to meet recruiting standards, which you talk about, but also just the economic pain at home? I mean, is the economic pain at home beginning to

show in its capabilities on the battlefield?

STEPANENKO: Absolutely. We do assess that that is a key factor in why Russia has lost its competitive edge. In 2025, actually in the summer of

2025, Russia did have an advantage in the intermediate drone range strikes because of their Rubicon Center for Advanced Technologies. It's an elite

formation of drone operators, engineers, technologists that made it possible for Russia to inflict damages on Ukrainian logistics.

The problem with that is that they're too small, there's not many of them. And for Russia to actually achieve similar effects across the entire

battlefield, Russia actually does need to recruit more drone operators. And that's something that has been a very big challenge for Russians.

They've launched a very widespread campaign to recruit students to operate drones and have not met their quotas at this time. And economically, it's a

very, very expensive undertaking. For each recruit, Russia does offer thousands of dollars' worth of recruitment bonuses. Today, actually Putin

signed a bill that authorizes the federal government to relieve people from debt up to 10 million rubles, which is around $140,000, tremendous amount

of money for Russians for any recruits that joined the armed forces.

And that is going to have a tremendous economic long-term implications, because it's not just about recruiting people, it's also about sustaining

them and sponsoring them throughout their entire life.

SCIUTTO: No question. Well, it also shows the price of getting them to the battlefield seems to be rising. George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, we

appreciate you sharing your analysis.

BARROS: Thanks for having us.

STEPANENKO: Thank you so much.

STEPANENKO: Coming up, relief in Laos rescuers there have now discovered five missing villagers in a cave alive. We're going to break down the

dangerous work to get them out ahead. Right after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:45:00]

SCIUTTO: In Laos, searchers have now found five of the seven villagers who are trapped in a flooded cave. The villagers received supplies telling

divers they were hungry, but uninjured. They reportedly entered the cave a week ago in search of gold. But heavy rain triggered flash flooding, which

then blocked the exit. Now, the focus is turning to their rescue and finding two people still missing. Finding those missing villagers is just

the first part of this rescue operation. As Will Ripley explains, the next challenge will be getting them safely out.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is the moment rescuers found five villagers alive, trapped for a week in a

flooded cave in central Laos.

The men say they're not sick, just weak, exhausted, and desperately hungry.

Officials say they entered the cave a week ago searching for gold. Heavy rain and flash flooding sealed the exit behind them. Seven days later,

their first taste of fresh water and soon food and first aid. But the danger is far from over.

Some of the same elite cave divers who helped rescue a soccer team in Thailand in 2018 are back working on this rescue, including Finnish diver

Mikko Paasi. He's helping lead the search and rescue operation, crawling through claustrophobic caverns full of muddy water He says getting the

survivors out alive will be extremely difficult and extremely dangerous.

MIKKO PAASI, DIVER: It's extremely small, tight complex of tunnels. The tight spots in this mine are so tight that you need to exhale to wiggle

through.

RIPLEY (voice-over): Some tunnels are just 23 inches wide, forcing divers to crawl sideways flat on their stomachs. They leave the cave covered in

mud, exhausted from searching around the clock, all during monsoon season in this mountainous jungle region near Long Tieng, once home to a secret

CIA base during the Vietnam War, flash floods can happen in minutes.

Teams are pumping fresh air underground, working to drain the rising water and even establishing an internet signal deep inside the cave, using radar

technology to scan narrow underground passages. Rescuers in Laos are hoping for another survival story. Like that Thai soccer team about eight years

ago, they spent more than two weeks underground and all made it out alive.

But conditions this time may be even more treacherous. Rising water, tight tunnels and zero visibility, putting rescuers and survivors in danger.

[18:50:00]

RIPLEY: What rescuers still don't know is exactly how stable conditions are deeper inside the cave system. Divers say even small changes in

rainfall could quickly raise the water level again during monsoon season. And unlike the Thai cave rescue in 2018, this is an old hand dug mining

tunnel with concerns about unstable passages, contaminated air and the risk of collapse.

Will Ripley, CNN, Taipei.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCIUTTO: And we'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCIUTTO: In our Field of Play now, Crystal Palace claimed their first European trophy this after beating the Spanish club Rayo Vallecano with a

1-nil win in the Conference League final. The victory gives Palace only its second major trophy in the team's 120-year history. They're the third

English club in four years to claim the UEFA Conference League title after West Ham United and Chelsea.

From escaping the Taliban to climbing Mount Everest, River Ahmad has become the first Afghan woman to reach the summit of the world's highest peak, and

it has been quite a journey for her to get there. She spoke to Isa Soares from Katmandu just a few days after her remarkable achievement.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ISA SOARES, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): River Ahmad has just made history as the first Afghan woman to summit Mount Everest.

RIVER AHMAD, FIRST AFGHAN WOMAN TO CLIMB MOUNT EVEREST: I feel so powerful after the summit. That was amazing feeling. I never had that feeling that I

had up there. This is so beautiful.

SOARES (voice-over): Standing at the highest point on earth to highlight the plight of women and girls back home in Afghanistan.

AHMAD: If I can climb this mountain, the highest mountain in the world, as the first Afghan woman in this part of the history, with those kind of

struggle, one day we can climb this part of the history and we have to have hope.

SOARES (voice-over): Hope has been her driving force after a life that has been nothing short of a miracle. She survived a deadly Taliban attack as a

teenager, faking her own death with menstrual blood.

AHMAD: When I saw the Taliban, like they were walking to me and I would just cover my eyes. And I was like, how I should act that I am dead and

these people not noticed. But I hold my breath and these people checked that I pretend that I'm dead. And it was a scary time. It was so scary. I

carry that memory up to Everest too.

And then they checked that they thought, oh, this lady is dead, when they moved out of the bus and was like, am I alive?

SOARES (voice-over): Twelve people were killed in that attack in 2014, she said. River was one of three survivors. She found solace in mountaineering.

[18:55:00]

AHMAD: Climbing is not easy at all. And you have to put your 100 percent to get to the top. And you have to dedicate your time and your

determination to do this. I put it this because world forget about Afghanistan right now. It is almost five years. The situation is getting

worse and worse. The child marriage and education back home there. And I thought the only things that I can do is to climb and bring awareness for

women and girls back home and to encourage them.

And by climbing to see me and how I am challenging my body, my limits to get to the top and to encourage them to.

SOARES (voice-over): A message of strength and defiance as the Taliban continues to tighten its holds on the life of women and girls in

Afghanistan.

Isa Soares, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCIUTTO: Well, if they could see her now. Thanks so much for your company. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington. You've been watching "The Brief." Please do

stay with CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:00:00]

END