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The Story Is with Elex Michaelson

U.S. and Iran Prepare for Talks Amid Lebanon Strikes; Artemis II Astronauts More Than Halfway Home; Israel Continues Attacks on Lebanon; Taiwan's Opposition Leader Meets with China's President. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired April 10, 2026 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JOSE HERNANDEZ, MISSION SPECIALIST, STS 1-28 SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY: -- images and then going outside and seeing the moon, almost full. That was me. That's what inspired me to become an astronaut, Laura.

[00:00:08]

So, imagine -- imagine how many kids were inspiring, seeing Victor there, seeing Christine, seeing the rest of the astronauts there. I think it's great.

LAURA COATES, CNN ANCHOR: Me, too. Jose Hernandez, thank you.

And hey, everyone, don't miss CNN's special coverage tomorrow when the Artemis II astronauts return to Earth. That's going to start at 7 p.m. Eastern on CNN or the CNN app.

Thank you all for watching. Here comes Elex Michaelson with THE STORY IS.

ELEX MICHAELSON,, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to THE STORY IS. I'm Elex Michaelson live in Los Angeles. Ahead this hour.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAELSON (voice-over): THE STORY IS ceasefire talks. Everything is set for a weekend of meetings between the U.S. and Iran. But Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz remain as major sticking points.

And was the war really worth it? My panel preparing for a fiery debate. Brian Tyler Cohen on the left. Katie Zacharia on the right.

THE STORY IS preparing for splashdown. The Artemis II crew is already halfway back to Earth. Retired astronaut Danny Olivas helped to design the heat shield they'll use. He'll explain how it works.

And THE STORY IS the future weapons of war. Our exclusive tour inside a company building the world's first low-cost 3-D printed cruise missiles.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: Live from Los Angeles, THE STORY IS with Elex Michaelson. MICHAELSON: Thanks for being with us. Nine p.m. here on the West

Coast. And the top story is fast approaching ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran.

The Trump administration is sending Vice President J.D. Vance; special envoy Steve Witkoff; the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner, to Pakistan.

Iran's foreign ministry says the talks are contingent on the U.S. adhering to its ceasefire commitments. And among the key issues, the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump says Iran is doing a very poor, dishonorable job of allowing oil to go through the vital waterway. He also warned Tehran against charging tolls to allow ships to pass.

Another sticking point is Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says it is not part of the ceasefire, although he wants to begin direct talks aimed at disarming Hezbollah.

The Israeli military struck again on Thursday after another evacuation warning. The death toll from Wednesday's massive strikes has now risen to more than 300.

President Trump says he asked the Israeli leader to be, quote, "more low-key" when it comes to Lebanon.

Kristie Lu Stout following all this. She's live in Hong Kong to start us off -- Kristie.

KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR/CORRESPONDENT: Elex, well, this very fragile ceasefire appears to be holding. We are hearing from the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and he says that Israel wants direct talks with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah but also adds that Israel will continue to launch strikes against the militant group.

Now, we know that Israel, along with the United States, have said that Lebanon is not part of a ceasefire deal, but Iran, as well as Pakistan, which has emerged as a key mediator in this conflict, they are saying otherwise.

I want you to listen to what we heard earlier from the Israeli prime minister.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER (through translator): Following repeated appeals from the Lebanese government to enter into peace negotiations with us last night, I instructed the cabinet to open direct negotiations with Lebanon, in order to achieve two goals.

One, the disarmament of Hezbollah. Two, a historic, sustainable peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon.

(END VIDEO CLIP) STOUT: Lebanese officials say that they have not received any formal

invitation to these direct talks. And don't forget, on Wednesday, that was when 300 people inside Lebanon were killed by Israeli airstrikes.

It's been a few days already since this ceasefire deal was announced, and since then, the missiles are still flying across the Middle East and ships en masse are not transiting across the Strait of Hormuz.

In fact, in the last couple of days, only a handful of vessels have managed to make the crossing through this critical waterway.

Want to show you the latest data that we have from Lloyd's List, giving you an indication of how many ships are making this crossing. Saying this, quote, "just three ships, over 10,000 DWT" -- That's deadweight tonnage. That's the total weight capacity of the vessel -- "transited the strait on Thursday morning with a further three Iran- linked vessels, including one sanctioned very large crude carrier, tracked transiting the strait on Thursday afternoon."

And according to Marine Traffic, hundreds of vessels remain trapped in the region. And we have a breakdown to share with you on what these vessels are.

They include oil tankers. In fact, according to Marine Traffic, 426 tankers are still stuck in the Gulf, along with 34 liquefied petroleum gas carriers and 19 LNG, or liquefied natural gas ships.

[00:05:10]

And we also have -- this is interesting -- fresh comment from the oil chief of Abu Dhabi, who is speaking in very plain terms. He is saying the Strait of Hormuz is, quote, "not open." And he goes on to say that access is restricted, conditioned, and controlled.

And shipping execs, they continue to tell me their concerns. They are desperately seeking clarity about the overall security situation across the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the practical matters of what it takes to process a requested transit across the strait, making any crossing right now.

And need we remind you or our viewers, Elex, before the war, the Strait of Hormuz was a free and open international waterway.

Back to you.

MICHAELSON: Yes. And 20 percent of the world's oil move through there.

So, we hear about these big peace talks in Pakistan. How are preparations going?

STOUT: Yes.

MICHAELSON: Is that really going to happen?

STOUT: Preparations are indeed happening. I want to show you this video of the hotel where these high-stakes critical peace talks are due to take place in Islamabad, Pakistan, Saturday morning, local time.

The hotel is a five-star hotel. It's called the Serena Hotel, and that is where both delegations from both Iran and the United States will be staying, in addition to having the talks take place there.

Of course, the U.S. delegation will be led by the U.S. vice president, J.D. Vance. Joining him, special envoys Jared Kushner, as well as Steve Witkoff.

And Pakistani authorities reportedly have locked down a two-mile perimeter around this hotel. So, security is very tight. Security is tight, stakes are high here, Elex.

And of course, what they're trying to achieve here is just monumental. They're trying to achieve peace at a time when this two-week ceasefire is barely holding -- Elex.

MICHAELSON: Kristie Lu Stout, starting us off in Hong Kong. Kristie, thank you so much.

Meanwhile, Democrats in the U.S. House have failed again in their latest effort to rein in President Trump's Iran war powers.

Republicans essentially ignored an attempt to introduce the measure during Thursday's pro forma session.

Senate Democrats plan to force a vote next week. Three similar attempts have failed.

Let's bring in our panel. Katie Zacharia is a former defense -- Department of Homeland Security official for the Trump administration. Brian Tyler Cohen is host of the "No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen" podcast, which gets hundreds of millions of views every month on YouTube.

Welcome to you both. Great to have both of you back here.

So, now that we're at this point where we have a ceasefire, it's possible that this war could be in the rearview mirror. Who knows? Was the war a good thing? Was it worth it? Are we safer now than we were at the beginning?

BRIAN TYLER COHEN, HOST, "NO LIE WITH BRIAN TYLER COHEN": I think any way you cut this, internationally and domestically, this has been an unmitigated disaster.

If you look at this from an international perspective, the whole point of this was supposed to be regime change. Well, we've gone from Khamenei to Khamenei, and so I don't think that we've really accomplished that goal of regime change.

Also, in terms of the decimated military of -- of the Iranians. Well, if they're -- if they're charging this toll now for ships and vessels to get through the Strait of Hormuz, they're going to be able to rebuild their military fivefold in terms of the amount of money that they're bringing in. When you look at what's happening right here at home, we've had at

least 13 service members who've died, 400 who have been wounded. This has cost tens of billions of dollars that should have gone to domestic priorities. The cost of gas is surging.

And so, any way you cut this, abroad and at home, unmitigated disaster.

MICHAELSON: Katie.

KATIE ZACHARIA, FORMER DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY OFFICIAL: Well, I totally disagree with my friend Brian. I think we are much safer than we were before. And the reason why is because let's backtrack.

President Trump had Iran sanctioned in 2018, and Joe Biden came in, and he gave sanction waivers on -- on Iran.

And then President Trump also had Russia and NordStream two sanctioned. Joe Biden came in and made waivers on these things.

And in my opinion, the stated goal was not for regime change. The stated goal was to make sure that Iran does not have nuclear capabilities. That has been over and over stated. It was pretty clear that they didn't want regime change and --

MICHAELSON: Well, pretty clear is -- is -- I mean, we've heard a lot of different things out of the administration from different people at different times.

ZACHARIA: The stated goal from the -- from the outset was we want to make sure Iran has -- does not have a nuclear weapon or uranium enrichment.

And look, China gets 80 to 90 or -- is 80 percent, 90 percent of Iran oil is purchased by China. And having lived in China, I see that this is not just about Iran. This is about a multifaceted approach to ensuring that China can no longer use Iran as their oil base.

And honestly, with what's happened with Russia and China and Iran to make a big deal, I think the president has actually, with this deal on the table right now, is organizing what could be lasting peace instead of this recreation of more and more problems in the Middle East.

[00:10:04]

COHEN: We have heard from the only plan that's been released right now, which is this ten-point plan released from Iran, which is that nuclear enrichment was still going to be allowed.

So, we have -- and we have nothing to refute it from the American side. So, as far as we know, there's going to be Americans paying for -- for -- for all the damage that's been done. We're going to have continued uranium enrichment in Iran, and they're going to be able to charge tolls.

So, we really have gained nothing out of this. And in terms of obliterating Iran's military, I mean, we heard the

exact same thing in June. So it's the same story being peddled by this administration that's constantly moving the goal goalposts, constantly obfuscating what's actually happening. Americans have no clue what's going on.

We have heard that the goal of this thing was regime change. And then, when that seemed to be a farce, because we've gone from the father to the son, who's reportedly more hardline than his dad was, the -- the administration --

MICHAELSON: If he's alive.

COHEN: If he's alive. The administration had to -- to pivot and figure out some new excuse that would justify having gone through this whole debacle.

ZACHARIA: But Brian, this isn't the first time a president has talked about uranium enrichment and nuclear weapon development. I mean, President Obama spoke about this. President Biden spoke about this. President Bush spoke about this. President Trump has just been the first president --

COHEN: It wasn't just -- it wasn't just speaking when.

ZACHARIA: -- to do something about it.

COHEN: Obama had the JCPOA in place. and he was able --

MICHAELSON: That's the nuclear deal.

COHEN: That was the nuclear deal. He was able to do this without -- without -- without threatening the genocide of 93 million people.

ZACHARIA: President Trump had sanctions on Iran in 2018. He -- he continued this, and he was really hardline with Iran.

And those sanctions were waived by Joe Biden under the Biden administration, and nuclear development continued and proliferated. And so, there has to be a president that is willing to stand up to Iran.

MICHAELSON: So -- so tangibly, what have we achieved out of this? I mean, because we do not know, in terms of Iran's nuclear capability. And it's possible that there will be -- continue to enrich.

And -- and we've spent tens of billions of dollars. Hundreds of people have died. I mean, what is the actual end result of what we've gotten out of this?

ZACHARIA: I think I'm going to reverse the question and say, is the world safer if Iran has a nuclear weapon? Is the world, is the Middle Eastern region, safer? Are our friends and our allies --

MICHAELSON: But has this prevented it? ZACHARIA: That's -- I mean, I would argue that we are starting major

road and ground that other presidents have not. He tried diplomacy. Diplomacy wasn't working. And so now --

COHEN: He didn't try diplomacy that hard.

ZACHARIA: He did. He absolutely did.

COHEN: So, this all started with -- with bombs dropping this past summer, where he, again, came out and promised us that all of this was obliterated.

For the people who believed him, now they must feel like fools, because if it was obliterated, what's the need to do it again? And yet, here we are.

And so, this administration has no credibility. And frankly, if the -- if the deal that we have in place right now continues to be the one in place, then Iran is going to make enough money from vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz that they're going to have no problem rebuilding their military.

ZACHARIA: Is the world safer if Iran has a nuclear weapon?

COHEN: I don't have any confidence that this has prevented them from being able to have a nuclear weapon.

ZACHARIA: So, stand by and let a nuclear weapon be developed and let's see what happens? Or do something about it? What is the solution?

Diplomacy hasn't been working. So, do we allow Iran? That's the question. Like, do we allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon? Is that in the best interest of the world, the safety and security of us, the safety and security of the Middle Eastern region, and many of our friends and allies, even in Europe?

MICHAELSON: I don't know if anybody is saying that it's better to have Iran have a nuclear weapon. I think the question is, what is the best way of preventing that and what's the best strategy going forward?

But Brian, to her point, what if we do come to a deal; that these negotiations are successful? What if all of this springs an actual deal between Israel and Lebanon, and there may be some peace there? What if we maybe have a better relationship with Iran, and it's not as able to attack all of our allies with proxies, and their military has been decimated a little bit. I mean, isn't there some value in that?

COHEN: Any time there is actual lasting peace, I'm a proponent of that.

My contention here is that I have no confidence that this administration is able to do that, or even showing that they're capable of doing that. Because, again, in the deal that we've seen thus far, Iran looks like it's in a stronger position than it was just a couple of months ago. MICHAELSON: It's interesting also, in terms of strength, President

Trump's poll numbers not great on this. And we've seen a divide in the MAGA base, which you know so well, talking to these folks every day.

There are some people who are against this, and there are plenty in the MAGA base who are very supportive of him, as well.

But he posted on Truth Social about some well-known Republican commentators who have been against this war. Let's put this up on the screen: "I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact they think its wonderful for Iran, the No. 1 State Sponsor, to have a nuclear weapon, because they have one thing in common, Low I.Q.s. They know it, their families know it, and everybody knows it, too."

What's your -- your reaction to that and your feel in terms of what's going on in the MAGA base?

[00:15:00]

ZACHARIA: Well, I'm going to lead with I'm a free speech absolutist. So, President Trump can say this, and the people that he's speaking about can say this.

And I will also speak to the fact that I've been very frustrated with the factions in the Republican Party.

Generally, Republicans have shown a long history of not being able to win. We cannot even right now get the SAVE America Act passed in the Republican Senate and Republican House.

So, we -- actually, it went through the House, and we can't get it passed in the Senate. So, to see all of these --

MICHAELSON: You need 60 votes in the Senate. So, you need to get rid of the filibuster, which is a whole other thing.

ZACHARIA: We need to get rid of the filibuster. It's a whole other thing.

But to speak to this, that I am also happy to see Alex Jones get called out in that post. It was a -- he's been a very difficult person, after going bankrupt, kissing the president, you know, and really asking him for favors; and then kind of turning around and attacking him.

However, the free speech aspect of this, they are welcome to talk about. I have a bigger problem at the factions in the Republican Party and the inability for anyone to get anything done, everyone fighting online about everything.

And so, that is really more of my position, is I would like to see all of these people come to the table and at least be united on trying to get something done for the American people, which would be voter I.D.

MICHAELSON: Do you agree with the president that Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owen are all low-I.Q. people?

ZACHARIA: I'm not going to speak to their I.Q. or have. He has his personal opinion about them.

MICHAELSON: Yes. What -- what do you think's going on here?

COHEN: I think it's pretty telling that Donald Trump goes after Candace Owens, Alex Jones, Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly for daring to hold the president to the same standard that he campaigned on.

He promised that he was going to be a president that didn't engage in foreign adventurism. That's exactly what he's doing right now.

He promised that he wouldn't be a president that would see gas prices rise. We're seeing these gas prices surge to levels that we haven't seen in years and years and years.

He promised he would be a president that would focus on America first. And now, he is moving billions and billions and billions of dollars from domestic priorities over to the Middle East so that he can drop bombs.

And then, on top of all of that, he thinks that he has a leg to stand on by attacking his own former allies. It's not like these people are crunchy liberals. These are -- these are the most MAGA people that you could possibly find.

ZACHARIA: Alex Jones is.

COHEN: And yet, he attacks them, because they dare try to hold him to the same standard that he set for himself.

ZACHARIA: You -- you simplify this, that he's just raising gas prices and dropping bombs. And --

COHEN: That's exactly what he's doing.

MICHAELSON: To the point. And this will be the last question. In terms of, though, for a lot of folks that voted for him because they didn't want foreign wars, they said, this is what we signed up for.

We had Caroline Sunshine on last week, who -- who used to work for him, who said, this isn't the meal that I ordered. I'm against this. What do you say to that?

ZACHARIA: Well, I say that there is a lot of military intelligence that I am not aware of. And I voted for the president because I trust his ability to defend the United States.

I also voted for him because there were eight deals, eight peace deals that he accomplished in his first eight months of being president.

And this -- I think the war was probably the last thing he wanted to do. And he tried diplomatic efforts. And here we are.

And I do trust that he has the right military intelligence. General Caine, I really do believe is the man for the job. He ended -- he ended exactly what he needed to with ISIS in record time.

So, I don't know the military intelligence that the president has. I voted for President Trump because I trust his judgment on this.

MICHAELSON: We've got to leave it there. If you could do it in one sentence.

COHEN: I can give you one sentence. I think it is naive, at best, to -- to suggest that this president doesn't want to engage in foreign adventurism after Venezuela, after the threats against Canada, Panama, Cuba. This president has been chomping at the bit to -- to engage in military intervention in direct contrast to what he said on the campaign trail.

MICHAELSON: Any top -- last notes?

ZACHARIA: To neutralize China.

MICHAELSON: And he talked last night about conquest for the military going forward.

All right. We've got to leave it there. We could go all day. Katie, Brian, great to see both of you and great to have a civil debate where we talk about things, but have a lot of respect at the end of the day.

COHEN: Thanks so much.

MICHAELSON: Coming up, the astronauts of the Artemis II mission are making the journey back to Earth. The thing that is uniting us.

Less than 24 hours until reentry and splashdown off the coast right here in California.

Retired astronaut Danny Olivas joins us next to talk about it. He helped to design the heat shield that is going to be tested in a major way tomorrow. He explains how it works when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:23:45]

MICHAELSON: NASA and the astronauts of the Artemis II mission are getting ready for their return to Earth. The astronauts are more than halfway home right now.

But perhaps the most daunting and precarious part of the mission is still ahead: reentry into Earth's atmosphere.

Their Orion capsule is on track to splashdown off the coast of San Diego, California, in less than 24 hours, shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern Time. That's 5 p.m. on the West Coast, so it will still be light outside.

Let's bring in retired NASA astronaut Danny Olivas.

Danny, great to see you again. You were with us here in L.A. a few days ago, now joining us from Indianapolis.

And as we talked about with you then, the heat shield was not very effective on Artemis I. So, they brought you and others in to look at it and to think about different ways of reentry.

They ended up changing the angle of the way reentry is going to work. What's reentry going to be like? What should we be looking for tomorrow?

DANNY OLIVAS, FORMER NASA ASTRONAUT: So Elex, I'm going to give you three numbers to remember for tomorrow: 25,000, 5,000 and 10.

The Artemis Orion capsule will be coming in at 25,000 miles an hour. And entering the Earth's atmosphere. During that time, it will be dissipating heat. The peak temperatures on Orion will reach 5,000 degrees, and it will have to pass through that -- that -- the thicker part of -- the thinner part of the atmosphere that fast. It will take about ten minutes to get through it all.

[00:25:13]

So, once we get through the first ten minutes of reentry, then we're home free and pass the peak heating area of reentry.

MICHAELSON: And it's so hot that they're not able to communicate with them during that time. Right?

OLIVAS: Yes. What happens is that you're coming in so fast, you're basically tearing the molecules of air apart at that upper atmosphere and creating a plasma around the capsule. So, it's a -- it's hot. It's a very staticky environment, not good communications.

But we're going to get them. We're going to get them back safely.

MICHAELSON: And when we see those parachutes, then we know that we're in a good place.

So, what does it feel like to come back to Earth? Because you're one of the few people that can actually talk about that.

OLIVAS: You know what? When you -- when you first start entering the atmosphere. Now, granted, I came back in the space shuttle time frame. The onset of gravity was -- was gradual.

This is going to be a little bit more of a shock for the crew. They've been spending the past nine plus days in a -- in a micro-G environment, you know, floating around, having a great time. We've seen all the video and photographs of them just enjoying themselves out there.

But you know, gravity is a hard thing, and it really comes back hard, especially on your way in. You haven't been used to, you know, being surrounded by gravity for that entire time. And once that starts to hit, you really start, you know, feeling very, very heavy.

And when they splashdown in the Pacific Ocean, one G is going to hit them, and they're going to feel like they weigh a ton of bricks.

MICHAELSON: You know, when the SpaceX brought the astronauts back recently, and they splashed down in the Pacific Ocean, it was at night. They flew over the California coast. And we all kind of got a free show in the sky.

Tomorrow, are we going to be able to see them?

OLIVAS: We better not. The entry profile will be taken in through the Pacific Ocean. As you said earlier, they will be landing off the coast of San Diego.

There's a -- there's a fairly large area in which they can land in. And then the whole idea is that it gives them a margin in the event that there's weather that creeps up, they can change that entry profile slightly, loft a little bit longer or shorter as necessary, and land where the rescue crews will be there, ready to pick them up.

Yes. And we're looking right now at some video. This is the boat that the Navy has already put out there to retrieve these guys, and then they will be taken onto that boat and then taken back eventually to Houston.

We'll be out there tomorrow in San Diego. I'll be out there for live coverage. As all of this happens, which is going to be a lot of fun.

Talk to us about the legacy of this mission. What do you think that this mission will be remembered for?

OLIVAS: Well, you know, we -- we often think of Apollo 11 and the words that Neil Armstrong said, you know, "One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind."

This is another step in that direction. Another steep [SIC] -- in -- another step in mankind venturing out into the great unknown.

Well, this crew has been further than any other human beings have been in the 4.5 million billion years of the existence of this Earth. And it's really the starting point, the starting point of lunar colonization.

And once we get through lunar colonization, learn how to do that really well, know what it's like to live off of the surface of the planet on another terrestrial body, then we're going to be setting our sights on Mars.

So, this is really, you know, yet another step. It's a historical moment, the end of an historical mission. And we are so proud of the entire crew and the entire NASA team for doing a phenomenal job.

MICHAELSON: Yes, they are. And you do such a phenomenal job of explaining all of it. Thank you for staying up late for us from Indianapolis tonight, Danny.

And a reminder that tomorrow, CNN's live special coverage starts at 7 Eastern, 4 p.m. Pacific, will go throughout the evening. I'll be part of that live coverage for several hours in San Diego.

And then we'll have a special edition of THE STORY IS from San Diego tomorrow right here on CNN.

Our thanks again to Danny Olivas for joining us tonight.

The Trump administration is pushing for peace talks with Iran. But Israel's massive assault on Lebanon could be putting those negotiations in peril. The details from China just ahead on CNN.

Plus, we take you inside a Southern California company that's building next-generation weapons using 3-D printing. No one else is doing this anywhere in the world. We take you exclusively inside. Coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [00:34:31]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NETANYAHU (through translator): I want to tell you, there is no ceasefire in Lebanon. We are continuing to strike Hezbollah with force, and we will not stop until we restore your security.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he has instructed his cabinet to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon, with the goal of disarming Hezbollah. But the fighting's not stopping.

His statement came after the Israeli military launched its biggest wave of strikes against Lebanon since the war started. The Lebanese Health Ministry says these latest attacks killed more than 300 people and injured more than 1,000.

[00:35:11]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALI HIJAZI, BEIRUT RESIDENT: I was raised in this neighborhood. I did not have time even to call all my friends or family. Some of them were able to leave. Some of them did not have a destination.

And the infrastructure, as you know, and the situation is very catastrophic. Again, from also a humanitarian angle. So, you start to feel like I'm looking for my safety, for the safety of my small family. I'm sorry, but this is getting very emotional.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: Wow. Iran is condemning those attacks, saying that discussions aimed at ending the war are contingent on the U.S. adhering to its ceasefire commitments.

Tehran says those include a halt to the attacks on Lebanon. The U.S. and Israel insist that was not part of the deal. Hicham Bou Nassif is an associate professor of government at Claremont

McKenna College here in California. He is Lebanese, as well. Welcome back to THE STORY IS.

We know so many of your friends and family are there on the ground, and you spend a lot of your time in Lebanon. What are you hearing from them?

HICHAM BOU NASSIF, ASSOCIATE PROFESS OF GOVERNMENT, CLAREMONT MCKENNA COLLEGE: Well, Elex, as you can imagine, the situation is very bleak.

In the last month, at least 1,800 Lebanese have been killed. Three hundred Lebanese have been killed in the last two days. So, as you can imagine, the situation is extremely gloomy.

That being said, perhaps, just perhaps, there's a glimmer of hope, because today we heard the news that the Israeli government and the Lebanese government will begin negotiating peace talks under the supervision of the United States.

We are talking about the possibility of the two countries finding a way of disarming Hezbollah and also the possibility of the two countries perhaps signing a peace agreement.

So, in a nutshell, what we're living now in Lebanon is a nightmare. But just perhaps there is light at the end of the tunnel.

MICHAELSON: What would that look like? What would a potential deal look like?

BOU NASSIF: Well, the most important element is cessation of hostilities from the Lebanese territories toward Israel, and vice versa.

Jordan and Israel are at peace. Egypt and Israel are at peace. I cannot see why Lebanon and Israel cannot see -- cannot be at peace, as well.

So, I'm not saying that automatically, after decades of hostility, you're going to have warm relationships between the two populations. Although I don't -- I don't see that not happening with time.

But on the immediate level: stopping, you know, Hezbollah bombing Israel, Israel retaliating. This cycle has been going on for decades now, and it's time for that cycle to stop, for the sake of the Israelis and for the sake of the Lebanese, as well.

MICHAELSON: Last time you were with us, you explained that there's about a third of Lebanon that's pro-Hezbollah, and then two-thirds that isn't. And is that two-thirds, would they largely welcome this idea of peace with Israel?

BOU NASSIF: I think the Lebanese are tired, for at least most of the Lebanese are tired of war.

Listen, Elex, Lebanon has lost its political independence for the last 50 years. In the '60s and '70s, the PLO, the Palestine Liberation Organization was able to -- to use Lebanon to trigger attacks on -- on Israel. Did that benefit Lebanon? Not at all.

In the 1980s, Lebanon came under the control of Hafez al-Assad, Syria. Again, Syria used Lebanon for the same goal. It may have benefited Syria, but certainly, it did not benefit Lebanon.

And then in the last 20 years, Iran became the overlord of Lebanon. And Lebanon has been used again, via Hezbollah, to attack Israel.

I think the Lebanese are saying enough is enough. We can have -- indeed, we should have -- normal relations with Israel, peace included.

MICHAELSON: Speaking of Iran --

BOU NASSIF: Yes.

MICHAELSON: -- they likely having negotiations this weekend with the United States --

BOU NASSIF: Yes.

MICHAELSON: -- to potentially end this war. Who's the winner of this war? Where are we at? And we had a debate earlier tonight of are we safer, are we not? How do you see things?

BOU NASSIF: Listen, some wars end with a clear winner and a clear loser. Think about Second World War, for instance.

Now, other wars are not that -- well, things are not that simple, so to speak. Think about the Iran-Iraq War. By the end of the Iran-Iraq War, the Iran regime was still in place. The Saddam Hussein regime at the time was still in place. So, things were more gray, so to speak.

At this point, I can tell you two things that Iran has secured and two important things that the United States has secured, as well.

When it comes to Iran, one thing is certain: nothing is more important for autocratic regimes than regime survival. So, the mere fact that the regime is still there, they consider that a win, so to -- so to speak. The Iranians consider --or the Iranian regime considers that it won, because it didn't lose. So that's an important point.

[00:40:14]

The other important point is they still control the Strait of Hormuz. And so that's also -- that's not a detail.

Now on the other hand, for the Americans, they secured two important wins, as well. First, the Iranian nuclear program has been degraded.

Now, we can debate how much it has been degraded. There are conflicting reports.

MICHAELSON: Sure. BOU NASSIF: But I think everybody agrees it has been degraded. That's also not a detail.

I think it would be a very, very bad situation for America, but also for the Middle East to allow Iran to become a kind of Middle East North Korea. Iran should not be allowed, for the sake of America, but most importantly, for the sake of the people of -- of the Middle East, should not be allowed to have a nuclear program.

MICHAELSON: Yes.

BOU NASSIF: And I think the Iranian capacities in this regard have been seriously degraded. So that's an important win for America.

MICHAELSON: What's No. 2?

BOU NASSIF: No. 2, Elex, had we been making this conversation two years ago, I could tell you at the time that Iran was sitting at the apex of a really powerful regional -- regional alliance composed of, for instance, actors such as Syria under the control of Bashar al- Assad at the time, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, et cetera.

Well, guess what? Bashar al-Assad is now a retired politician, so to speak. He's like a businessman now living in Moscow.

Syria now is an enemy of Iran.

MICHAELSON: Yes.

BOU NASSIF: Hezbollah has been seriously diminished in Lebanon, not finished, but seriously diminished.

MICHAELSON: So much so that there might be a peace deal with Israel.

BOU NASSIF: Yes, exactly. And Hamas, the same in -- in Gaza.

So, that's also a big win for the United States.

MICHAELSON: Yes.

BOU NASSIF: So, that's the situation right now.

MICHAELSON: All right. things are complicated.

BOU NASSIF: Things are always complicated.

MICHAELSON: And sometimes nuance isn't rewarded in our social media environment, but it's important to talk to people like you to be able to hear the full picture.

Hicham Bou Nassif, thanks for being with us.

BOU NASSIF: Thank you so much.

MICHAELSON: And I do hope your family is safe, as well.

BOU NASSIF: Thank you so much. Thank you.

MICHAELSON: Russia has announced a ceasefire in its war against Ukraine for the Orthodox Easter holiday. A statement from the Kremlin on Thursday said that President Vladimir Putin will, quote, "proceed from the assumption that the Ukrainian side will follow the example of the Russian Federation."

It will start Saturday afternoon; will expire at the end of the day on Sunday.

For its part, Ukraine's president had previously said that he forwarded the offer of a Easter ceasefire to Russia through U.S. negotiators.

Well, the stakes are high as Taiwan's opposition leader meets with China's president. What it signals for diplomatic relations between the self-governing island and Beijing. We'll take you live to China, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:47:36]

MICHAELSON: Welcome back to THE STORY IS. I'm Elex Michaelson. Let's take a look at today's top stories.

First lady Melania Trump has blasted the, quote, "lies" linking her to Jeffrey Epstein. The first lady made the surprise remarks Thursday, saying she had no relationship with Epstein.

She called on Congress to hold public hearings, allowing Epstein's victims to testify on Capitol Hill. Some White House officials were stunned by the timing of her remarks.

The fertility rate in the U.S. has reached a record low. A new CDC provisional report says about 3.6 million babies were born in the U.S. last year. That's down 1 percent from 2024 and down nearly 20 percent from two decades ago.

Economic experts say a further decrease eventually could be a drag on the economy.

Public health experts say it's important to look at the reasons for the drop before trying to address it.

Starting this winter, eligible young men in the U.S. will be automatically registered for the military draft pool as part of a measure passed by Congress last year.

Automatic registration was already in place in the majority of states and territories. The United States last implemented a military draft back in 1973 during the Vietnam War.

Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun is in China on a rare visit. Chinese state media reports she met with top leader Xi Jinping in Beijing.

This is the first time in a decade that a sitting leader of a majority party in Taiwan met with Xi.

Cheng says her visit is to promote peace in the region.

The meeting is closely watched as China considers the self-ruled island as its own territory and has refused to engage with Taiwan's democratically-elected president.

For more on the stakes of this meeting, let's bring in CNN's Beijing bureau chief, Stephen Jiang.

Stephen, how do we -- what do we know about what happened here?

STEPHEN JIANG, CNN BEIJING BUREAU CHIEF: Yes, Elex, because Taiwan is such an extremely sensitive issue in the eyes of the Beijing leadership, this meeting is really -- people are listening very carefully to what both leaders say during their meeting inside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

Now, Xi, of course, not surprisingly, emphasized the shared historical and cultural roots of people on both sides of the street and reinforcing his message about the inevitability and also his confidence in the identification of the two sides. And of course, also very much strongly hinting that this process should not involve any outsiders.

[00:50:02]

Now, Cheng Li-wun, who is known to be a firebrand within Taiwan politics, very much sticking to her script and at times seemed to be trying to speak Xi's language, perhaps trying to strike a chord with this most powerful Chinese leader in decades, saying things like the rejuvenation of the great Chinese nation.

And that, of course, is important to note, because that's why this meeting is taking place. Because both her party and the Chinese Communist Party that is led by Xi acknowledged this -- this position, this one China position, even though it may be open to different interpretations by them. That is why this meeting is taking place.

Even as China refused -- has refused, as you mentioned, to meet with the ruling party in Taiwan and its President Lai, because they consider him a diehard separatist.

And Lai himself -- himself has already pushed back, saying he is being pragmatic. Even though he wants peace, he doesn't want to make concessions to -- to dictators at a cost of sovereignty and -- and freedoms.

But it is also very much worth noting that the elephant not in the room is the U.S. government and Donald Trump, especially considering her trip comes at a time when Taiwan is facing both pressure from Beijing. With these ramped up military drills around the island. But also from Washington as they try to push the island to pass a $40 billion defense spending bill. A lot of the money, of course, going to buying U.S. weaponry.

But there is this growing fear that Trump is only seeing Taiwan as a pawn in the bigger U.S.-China relationship. Not really interested in its longtime future, especially considering the president has repeatedly asked Taiwan to pay more for U.S. protection, and also accusing the island of stealing the semiconductor chip industry from the U.S.

So, it is really interesting, given Trump is coming here in a little over a month to meet with Xi. Taiwan is expected to be featured prominently on the agenda, at least from Beijing's perspective.

So, this so-called journey of peace, as described by Chen herself, whether or not it would have any impact on that meeting between Xi and Trump remains to be seen.

But at least I think this dialog, this communication, is welcomed by a lot of people, especially if it could result in less military drills around Taiwan in the short term -- Elex.

MICHAELSON: Yes. So, Xi meeting with her, meeting with Trump, and then apparently also, very important at this idea of the Iranian ceasefire, having a key role in that too. Right?

JIANG: Yes. This is a really, you know, delicate and contentious triangular relationship between Beijing, Washington, and Taipei. As you said, this war in Iraq also being watched by all sides because from Beijing's perspective, a lot of people have said this may even further embolden their -- their position that they could take Taiwan militarily, as well, especially since they consider this domestic affairs.

But also of course, anytime the U.S. is mired in another quagmire, that's strategically beneficial to China, as a lot of people have put it.

But Taiwan, of course, is also watching how Iran can wage this asymmetric warfare against one of the -- against the most powerful military in the world to reinforce its so-called porcupine strategy to deal with any potential Chinese invasion or attack by -- by making this as costly as possible.

So, I think a lot of different strands in this triangular relationship.

MICHAELSON: Steven Jiang in Beijing. Thank you for your reporting. Good to see you.

We take you now to Hawaii, where the Kilauea volcano is erupting once again, sending large fountains of lava into the air. Look at this spectacular picture.

This is a look at the active volcano. This is a live picture from Hawaii, where it's now 6:53. This is on the big island in Hawaii at the Volcanoes National Park.

The U.S. Geological Survey has placed the area under a red warning. That means that the volcano could pose significant issues for aviation, if ash clouds start being released.

The latest eruption has prompted park closures and evacuations, but it is quite a scene, live from Hawaii right now.

Across the country, the Masters has teed off in Augusta, Georgia. We'll bring you the latest as defending champ Rory McIlroy hopes to go back-to-back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:59:07]

MICHAELSON: The K-pop group BTS is back onstage, kicking off a global comeback tour. The tour opened the first of three sold-out nights in South Korea.

Next, they'll head out to 34 cities around the world. The managers say all dates across North America and Europe are sold out.

It's been four years since their last tour. The seven members of the group took a break from the music industry to complete their mandatory military service.

Defending champion Rory McIlroy has gotten off to a strong start in this year's Masters. The Northern Irishman shot an opening five under par round of 67 at the famed Augusta National Golf Club.

He's one of just six players to win all four major golf tournaments. It took McIlroy 17 years to triumph at the Masters. Of course, it happened last year.

He's now looking to become just the fourth man to claim back-to-back Masters titles. He would join Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, and Tiger Woods if he's able to pull that off.

McIlroy still has a long way to go, but his impressive start means he shares the lead with Sam Burns.