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The Story Is with Elex Michaelson

Six States Hold Primaries Including California, Iowa; Vote Counting Underway for California Governor, L.A. Mayor; California Governor's Race Too Early to Call; Rebecca Bennett Wins New Jersey Democratic District 7 Primary. Aired 2-3a ET

Aired June 03, 2026 - 02:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Which I think is really important, is if you know anything about these candidates' home bases, where they're from. It turns out that Tom Steyer is right -- is from the San Francisco area, but what's going on in the San Francisco area?

[02:00:10]

I've circled it for you here on the map. It is all in Columbia blue. Columbia blue, Xavier Becerra is actually winning in Tom Steysers' home area at this point, and more than that, more than that, Xavier Becerra is also leading. If we go down to his home area in Los Angeles County, he's at 29.4 percent Steyer's back at 22.6 percent.

The other thing that I will note, so far, than what we're seeing, and what we expect to happen as the results come in, is that we know that there are a lot of votes still out, there's still that 50 percent still out. In prior years, and what the pre-election polling suggested would happen is that those results, those late ballots that were submitted and be counted later, tend to be more Democratic leaning.

So, right now, we saw Xavier Becerra come out last hour. My bet is this 25.8 percent will either hold, it might go up a little bit, but the question is, what will happen to right now this 26.9 percent that Steve Hilton has. Is that going to go down, which historical trends would indicate is a very decent possibility? And then will Tom Steyer's 19.7 percent. We just got some new -- hey, we got new results right here on the air. Yes, we're now up to 51 percent of the vote. We are now on the other side of 50 percent, but will this 19.7 percent for Steyer continue to rise as late ballots arrive? Will that actually go up?

History suggests that it is a real possibility that that does, in fact, happen. Now, the one other thing I will note, because you know what we've been talking so much about this gubernatorial, I did want to hit on one house race out in California. Now, if I can do this correctly, let's see if I can zoom in on it. I want to go to the San Francisco Bay Area. Go to San Francisco. This is Nancy Pelosi's district.

Now, what is so interesting here is Nancy Pelosi actually endorsed the candidate right now that is in second place, and more than that, the candidate that used to work for Elexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Look at this all the way back at 14.9 percent. Scott Weiner is the leader in this race right now, with 41.3. Just like in the gubernatorial race, it is the top two that would advance.

So, right now, it looks like Nancy Pelosi's picked will advance, and more than that, it looks like Scott Weiner's pick will advance.

But the candidate that Elexandria Ocasio-Cortez did not endorse, but used to work for her, he spent a lot of money on this race, but at this point Elex Michaelson, it does not look like he will advance.

But as we were talking about at the top, again, the story being in the gubernatorial race as we zoom out here. Hello, let's see if I can do this correctly. There we go. We did it. We did it. Steve Hilton won, and then Xavier Becerra two. The question will be, can Tom Steyer close that gap and end up in the top two? We're just going to have to wait and see, but you know what, we're going to be here all night, baby. Yes.

ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR: For a moment you were making Donald Trump very happy there when you had all red, that's going to -- that's going to be a screenshot that somebody is going to use, Harry Enten.

ENTEN: Hey, you know he's a fan of mine, and maybe he'll screenshot that.

MICHAELSON: He's a huge fan of you.

ENTEN: He is.

MICHAELSON: I think you're his favorite person on CNN. You and Scott Jennings.

ENTEN: You know what, my mother is also a big fan of mine as well. So, there we go. My mother and Donald Trump.

MICHAELSON: Yes, Jewish mothers. It's all -- it's all about that.

ENTEN: I know.

MICHAELSON: All right, Harry Enten, thank you so much. We're bringing a Jewish mother and grandmother, and former senator from California, Barbara Boxer, joining us, along with former Lieutenant Governor of California Abel Maldonado, a Republican worked in the Schwarzenegger administration, and Paul Mitchell, the Vice President of Political Data and owner of Redistricting Partners.

Welcome back. For people who have been watching our coverage, you joined us a little bit earlier. Since then, we have seen new developments in the governor's race. We've heard from Xavier Becerra tonight as well, casting his potential moving on as a historic moment in California, the first potential Latino governor of the state in modern history. Your thoughts on what Becerra is -- his message is tonight?

BARBARA BOXER, FORMER U.S. CALIFORNIA SENATOR: I was very touched by his remarks, I'm a first-generation American on my mother's side. My mother was -- she escaped from Europe, she was a little baby in her mother's arms. And America speaks to me as a country of immigrants, and I think it's so historic. We haven't really discussed that, you know, with Xavier being a potential governor, especially in a time when you have the Trump administration demonizing immigrants, using secret police, putting people away in these horrible prisons, and treating them badly, I think we haven't discussed that enough. And it touches my heart.

MICHAELSON: Let's listen in to some of Xavier Becerra a little while ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

XAVIER BECERRA (D), GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE FOR CALIFORNIA: There are powerful forces aligned to darken our light, distrust, disinformation, division, and distraction. Make no mistake, those forces did not want tonight to happen, because their success depends on our failure.

[02:05:18]

The last thing these forces want is a working-class governor with a law degree and a union card ready to call them out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: What do you make of that message?

ABEL MALDONADO, FORMER LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA: You know that's the Democrat message, and he's talking to the Democrat voters. At the end of the day, Xavier Becerra is going to have to start talking about what's he going to do about gas prices, what's he going to do about homelessness, what's he going to do about the cost of living? Elex, you've asked him some questions, a lot of people have asked him questions. His answer was, we're the fourth largest economy in the world.

So, from now on, I mean, I think obviously he's going to be the nominee for the Democrat party, and he's got his work cut out. There's no doubt he's got a tremendous advantage.

MICHAELSON: Because of that advantage, does he actually have to answer those questions? Or he's saying I'm the Democrat and I'm anti-Trump. Is that enough in Deep Blue California when election after election after election, that's been a pretty successful message?

MALDONADO: Well, during the primary, he said that he built a strength around, I sued President Trump 120 times, and that he says he won a lot, so that's not going to cut it for the California voters. I don't believe in the next five months. They want to know, what are you going to do to fix the state.

The state is not in great shape. I mean, I think we all know that. So, again, his advantage, he's got a tremendous registration advantage. The question is, is he going to tell us point by point what he's going to do. I can guarantee you this, Steve Hilton, he's got a simple message,

it's simple, and it's going to get out there. So, there's going to be some debates, and we're going to be able to have a good look at two candidates.

MICHAELSON: You study the data, Paul, in terms of where the electorate actually is. So, what do the numbers show us in terms of what is driving people right now?

PAUL MITCHELL, VICE PRESIDENT OF POLITICAL DATA AND OWNER, REDISTRICTING PARTNERS: Well, what's interesting is months ago the Becerra campaign staff sent me one of their internal polls, and they listed all the issues: homelessness, housing, education, the environment, jobs, affordability, and the bottom listed issue was someone who can fight Trump. It was the lowest polling, like 35 percent.

And I said to them, send me the cross tabs, and when I looked at the cross tabs, the Democratic voters, the number one issue was somebody who can fight Trump, so that was really kind of the table stakes in this governor's race for the Democratic candidates, you know, that's I think why Matt Mehan, as an example, didn't really break through, because he didn't have that, but now, as we go --

MICHAELSON: And we'll go to Eric Swalwell who's doing so well. I mean, Eric Swalwell's whole thing was, I'm the Trump fighter, I'm going to impeach him, I'm going to make social media videos saying F you to him, and that was doing really well. Then, when he was out, and people were looking for somebody to Trump to fight Trump.

MITCHELL: And Addisu Demissie on the earlier segment really hit it, but when Swalwell dropped out, the Democratic base was looking for somebody, and here's, you know, a candidate, Becerra, who had sued Trump 120 times as a former statewide elected official, was somebody who actually had a positive favorability, which Addisu also mentioned, this underlying positive number, and voters gravitated to him, I swear, organically.

The people most surprised by Becerra's rise into the pack was Becerra's campaign itself. It's really an interesting story after the fact to look at somebody who was fighting to be on the debate stage, as you mentioned in four percent, 4.2 percent and then became relevant.

MICHAELSON: And to this point, just real quickly, Senator Boxer, because there's a -- there's a sort of question about where the Democratic base is. You endorsed Antonio Villaraigosa, who, in a lot of ways, was running against the status quo of the party. Matt Mehan, the mayor of San Jose, was running against the status quo of the party, and the guy who, frankly, was more status quo than anybody won, so it makes you think maybe voters aren't looking for somebody to fight the party.

BOXER: Can I just say the party? I never understood that. I ran as Barbara Boxer, a Democrat, a proud Democrat. Didn't mean I agreed with everything, no. But I think when you say you're running against Trump, it means you're

for health care, it means you're for raising the minimum wage. It means you're for building the infrastructure. It means you're for working people.

So, all this chit chat from my darling friend over here, I think at the end of the day, and he calls it the Democrat Party. You know, that's rude. It's the Democratic party, but I think the point about it is, is, you know, we are for the working people, and you know, Xavier or Steyer, whoever it was going to be, Antonio Villaraicoza, my favorite, they were all going to be for working families, and that's what Democrats are for.

Now, are we perfect? No. Do we make mistakes? Yes, we don't get our messaging right. That's true, but I think in their hearts of hearts, the people know who's on their side.

[02:10:03]

MICHAELSON: We're going to sneak in a quick break. You're all standing by. We're going to come back with more of our conversation.

BOXER: We're standing by again.

MICHAELSON: We're standing by. It's got a lot to talk about. We'll be back with more on election night in America, including Barbara Boxer standing by.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MICHAELSON: Welcome back. We're closely tracking the results of key primary elections in six states ahead of November's midterm general election that includes major races right here in California for governor and L.A. mayor. Let's talk about the governor's race right now with Fabian Nunez. He is the former speaker of the California State Assembly, current founder and managing partner at Actum. He joins us live from Paris. How about that? Good morning to you, Mr. Speaker.

[02:15:06]

FABIAN NUNEZ, FORMER CALIFORNIA STATE ASSEMBLY SPEAKER: Good morning. Well, actually, good evening, or morning there, and morning here or evening there, whatever time it is in Los Angeles. Happy to be with you, Elex.

MICHAELSON: So, you're waking up to these results of what we're seeing right now. It looks good for Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton. Tom Steyer hoping for a late surge in the next few weeks to bring him into the top two. How do you read this, and what are your sort of most important thoughts about the governor's race right now?

NUNEZ: Well, a couple of things on the governor's race. You know, it's interesting listening to all of the national news around this with all the outlets that are kind of reading into what's happening in California, and I'm hearing a lot of people talk about how California is in trouble, how California is in a bad place.

The fact of the matter is that, you know, California continues to be the strongest state in the -- in the nation. Economic growth has been solid in the state. The other thing that's interesting is that the California dream of opportunity is alive and kicking in the state.

Now, we have an affordability problem, like many other states do, and certainly, you know, living under the thumb of the Trump administration, and all of the things that that has brought to the rest of the country. California is feeling that as well, and so, yes, we're in the governor's race, and, yes, some people are disenchanted with their situation, and they should be. I think voters speak loudly.

But the fact of the matter is, we have great candidates running for governor. Obviously, you know -- you know, I supported Antonio Villaraigosa in this race. He's not going to make it tonight, but Xavier Becerra is, and so I'm very happy for the Democratic Party, not just for Latinos, but for the future of our party, because I think we'll have a steady hand in the governor's race.

And you know, just with respect to Steve Hilton, it's interesting, because you know he's been there -- he's been -- he's been saying a lot of platitudes in this race, and if you listen to him on the debates, the things that he's been focused on has been, you know, very much on the surface.

When you ask him deeper questions, he doesn't necessarily have a real set of issues and plans to see what he's going to do to fix the problems that California confronts, but he's going to have to confront something. Given that I'm in Europe, I can say this now: is that he was central to the Brexit situation in the U.K., and Brexit, as you know, totally devastated the economy in the United Kingdom, such that countries like France and Germany have taken the lead over England. England was positioned to be the strongest economy in Europe, and thanks to what they did over Brexit, which, which really was a falling out with people in the U.K. that didn't want immigration.

And so, he ruined the economy in the U.K. and now he immigrated to California to try and be our governor. He's going to have to answer a lot of questions about not only the fact that his plans are very, very weak, there's no substance to them, but his own past, and I think that's going to be very critical for someone like him to try to win any voters outside of the MAGA Republicans.

MICHAELSON: He would say that he wants to do a tax cut for everybody making under $100,000 that he wants to cut regulations to help increase building. He wants to cut regulations for oil and gas companies, so that there can be more drilling and lower the cost of gas.

And I'm just curious, I mean, I know a lot of people have a hard time paying attention to American. Politics, how many California voters you think are up on the Brexit situation as a voting issue?

NUNEZ: Well, they're not up on it, but they certainly will be before the November election. People will be reminded of how poorly his judgment was in ruining one of the strongest economies in Europe.

But the other thing that's really interesting, you talk about the tax issue, which no one's challenged him on this, and he will be challenged on. He wants to say, if you make under $100,000 you will pay no taxes in California. The California tax base is 100 percent dependent on the personal income tax. Without those taxpayers that make $100,000 or less, the California economy will collapse of its own weight.

So, clearly, he doesn't have an understanding of how the California economy works, and maybe he needs to go to school and learn, because he's going to have to learn very quickly if he's going to be in this runoff.

MICHAELSON: He said, when I challenged him on that, that the fraud is so great in California would make up the difference, but well, I'm sure, have more opportunities to talk about all these issues, if he indeed on top, too.

NUNEZ: You know, Elex, Elon Musk tried to say the same thing about the federal government, and they did DOGE, and they came back, and they accomplished zero. That's been done before in California. Arnold Schwarzenegger, when he was elected, he said he was going to get rid of the fraud, waste, and abuse, and I love Arnold, he's one of my closest friends. But there was no fraud, waste, and abuse to be found.

[02:20:07]

MICHAELSON: Well, we know there is fraud, waste, and abuse in California, and in the federal government. The question is, how much of it is there?

Fabian Nunez, thank you for joining us. Always a pleasure to talk with you, my friend. Thanks for being with us. Let's talk about some of the congressional races, and this is an important thing as well. We haven't talked that much about, and let's put some of those numbers up on to our big board right now.

This is an interesting race. This is in the California 48th district. This is parts of San Diego and Riverside County. Jim Desmond, Republican, is doing well there. There's a big battle, though, for second place. Who would face off? This is one of those redrawn districts that Darrell Issa is currently in, Marni Von Wilpert looks to be doing well against Ammar Campa-Najjar, so far in terms of the early numbers there.

Let's look at the 32nd district. This is a race where Brad Sherman, who has been in the seat since 1997, 71 years old, being challenged by Jake Levine, who is a millennial, Brad Sherman and Larry Thompson out ahead. Jake Levine have to make up a lot of ground at this point to make it into the top two. If that is a Sherman versus Thompson race, that means that Sherman most likely would win in a very Democratic district.

Let's look at the 40th district. This is one of the redrawn districts where you now have two Republicans running against each other, who are both incumbent members of Congress. Ken Calvert and Young Kim, both doing well in this district. Esther Kim-Varet, the Democrat there trying to get into the top two. As we get more returns, we'll see if she's able to get there, or if there will be two active members of Congress running against each other.

The reason why that's happening is the guy who's on our panel right now, Paul Mitchell, who literally drew some of these district lines after Prop 50 gerrymandered the state. California voters approved your maps through Proposition 50 pretty overwhelmingly in a long way to say, how are you reading the congressional races right now? What's standing out to you?

MITCHELL: Well, that Ken Calvert seat, you know, I think we should find out who did that. We got to look for Ken.

MALDONADO: That was all you, my friend. That was all you, my friend.

MITCHELL: That is the only remaining, you know, Republican congressional district in all of Southern California, and it was even possible at a time that Darrell Issa was going to run there, there might have been a three-way Republican race there.

In terms of the whole state, there are five districts that were drawn to create a pushback on what was done in Texas, where the California voters got together essentially and approved Prop 50 to draw these seats. Now, when we drew these seats, we knew that they were going to be Republican or Democratic leaning on paper, but we always have to have the elections, and so in that 48th congressional district, there was a poll out that showed that they might get two Republicans in the top two, box out the Democrats entirely, but that's not happened. Looks like the Democrat and Republican are going to face off there.

In the throughout the state, the Central Valley, there's a critical district with David Vallejo's district, where two Democrats, one more left-leaning and one more centrist, running there, that's still competitive.

Up in Northern California, Kevin Kiley, who re-registered to be Independent and switched districts in order to run for re-election. We might have a top two situation there, where there's a second place Republican who is in third place right now, or a second Republican is in third place, and we could have a situation where Kiley faces off against a Republican boxing out the Democrats.

So, there's still a lot of votes to count there, it'll probably move back towards the Democrats more, but you know, these races, these districts can be drawn one way, but you have to have the actual races too. I mean, this is democracy.

MICHAELSON: You endorsed one person in all this, which is Marni Von Wilpert. She was in a really competitive race against Ammar Campa- Najjar, and so far looks like she's doing very well.

BOXER: It's looking so good. I just wanted to give a shout out to the voters there, because we had so many Democrats vying for that. We once thought two Republicans could wind up on top. It didn't work out that way.

I just want to say about Marni, just here and now, keep your eye on her. She's special, and you know you've got Emily's List supporting her, you've got the women members of Congress supporting her. We still don't have enough women in the House and Senate. We're at about a third. We need to be at about 50 percent. Keep your eye on Marni. I think she's going to do it. she's a special person.

MICHAELSON: A lot better than when you first went there.

BOXER: There were two women in the Senate, can you imagine when Diane (ph) and I walked in, and last thing I'll say, because I know you don't have a lot of time for me, but we had two women, and then it went to six, and they -- everyone says, the year of the woman, women, we tripled our numbers, but we just went from two to six, and there were 94 guys, we have a long way to go.

[02:25:05]

MICHAELSON: Last set on the congressional races, real quick, Abel.

MALDONADO: You know, this man right here, our man right here, he made some changes, and I got to tell you, you know, it's the Proposition 50 was a foundation of the redistricting here, and Californians came out and voted in huge numbers, which is the number. If I'm Steve Hilton, I'm looking at that election as well, and that was a totally anti -- you got to vote against Trump, vote for Prop 50. Look what happened.

MICHAELSON: That messaging was good for Prop 50, that messaging was good when Gavin Newsom ran for his re-election. That messaging was good for the recall. When Gavin Newsom beat that as well, he ran three statewide races, basically with that message.

Thank you all for being here tonight, staying up late with us. We really appreciate it. Our second panel is going to join after this, but this is when we say goodbye to all of you. Really fun enjoying this history with you. Senator, always a pleasure.

BOXER: Thank your mom for the cookies.

MICHAELSON: My mom baked cookies for everybody.

BOXERR: She made brownies and they're so good.

MICHAELSON: Thank you very much.

BOXER: Thank you.

MICHAELSON: We'll be back with more of our coverage, including our next panel. Stay with us. You're watching Election Night in America on THE STORY IS.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:30:25] MICHAELSON: Welcome back. We are following several key primary races around the country. CNN Chief Data Analyst, Harry Enten standing by in New York at the Magic Wall. Not only California, but we're also looking Iowa, New Jersey, around the country as well, right, Harry?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: We are. You know, I got 2.5 minutes, so we're going to have -- call this the 2.5 minutes around the United States of America, right? I'm going to start off where you are right now, in Los Angeles. You know, Karen Bass, who we say is going to advance, you know, she's at 36.5 percent of vote. Spencer Pratt at 29.5 percent. But Raman has actually been coming up, she's now at 21 percent of the vote.

That is actually higher, she has actually been doing significantly better in the last few batches and we only have 49 percent of the vote in, if you can read my handwriting up here, so as the additional 51 percent of the vote comes in, it's going to be very interesting to see if Raman can in fact close that gap between her and Spencer Pratt. If she does as well as she's done in the last few ballot drops, she may very well do that. So we're going to keep our eye out on that.

But of course, beyond Los Angeles mayor, what are we dealing with? Well, of course, we're talking about California governor. It's been the story all night long. Top two advance, right, Steve Hilton, Xavier Becerra, one and two right now. You see a lot more red and that Columbia blue for Xavier Becerra than you see for the dark blue, the Navy blue for Tom Steyer.

But again, what we're expecting now with 48 percent -- hey, we gained an additional point in terms of the vote coming in. As the additional votes come in, again, those who submitted their ballots late tended to be more Democratic. So I think the question is, do we end up with a Hilton-Becerra or do we end up with a Hilton-Steyer, I don't think that's particularly likely, but what could happen is Becerra and Steyer end up in the top two and Hilton goes adios, amigos goodbye, see you later.

Now, we were talking about the continent, right? The continent, we're talking about the country within the continent, the United States of America. So I want to go out, back to the center of the country. Why do I want to go to the center of the country? I want to go to the great state of Iowa. Obviously, the Iowa caucuses is where it all began when Donald Trump first ran back in 2016, it was the first contest. He lost there back in 2016 and guess what?

Donald Trump, his endorsed candidate, Randy Feenstra actually lost -- actually lost in a Republican primary, the candidate that Donald Trump backed, lost. That I believe is the first time I have seen that in a gubernatorial primary this entire year. Zach Lahn, who in fact was not endorsed, he was a MAHA guy, actually won that primary, winning by just a little bit, 37.8 to 37 percent.

But, you know what? 0.8 points being on the plus side of ledger is a whole heck of a lot better than being 0.8 points on the negative side of the ledger. So Donald Trump's impeccable record in Republican primaries, adios, amigos -- goodbye tonight. So the story is still out in California, but a lot of stuff happening throughout the rest of the country. And Elex, I am very much having the energy despite the fact that it is only --

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

ENTEN: 2:33 here in the east.

MICHAELSON: I mean, what are we doing? Are we doing coffee? Are we doing -- what's the routine to get us to that level at 2:30 in the morning where, clearly, you're going on to the Spanish version of Harry Enten?

ENTEN: Ola, como estas? Look --

(LAUGH)

ENTEN: I would say that it is just being with you and you know what, a little A&W Cream Soda, even without the caffeine, always provides the boost for me.

MICHAELSON: That's all he needs. Harry Enten, thank you so much for bringing the energy.

ENTEN: You're right (ph).

MICHAELSON: Here to bring in more energy is our panel, Ron Brownstein, CNN Senior Political Analyst, Opinion Columnist for Bloomberg; Elisha Krauss conservative commentator, op-ed writer for Washington Examiner; and Peter Hamby, Founding Partner at Puck News and Host of Snapchat's "Good Luck America."

All right, Ron, you've been chomping at the bit --

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: -- to get in on this Iowa --

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: -- governor's race.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: What stands out to you about that? A big loss for Donald Trump.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah. Surprising. I mean, as Harry said, I mean his record has been really strong. But Iowa I think is really indicative of how -- the boundary that's going to decide how far Democrats get in this election. If you look at -- so if you look at what happened in 2018, they basically ran the table in the House just about on the white-collar suburban districts that have been drifting away from the Republican Party and that Trump has particularly alienated.

And you saw tonight, New Jersey-7 is one that they still hope to win. There's the Don Bacon seat in Omaha they still hope to win, Mike Lawler in New York, but they're not that many left of them. And Iowa is really where the main battleground is now. If you're looking whether the governor's race there, the Senate race, or especially the House races, they are predominantly blue-collar electorates.

[02:35:00]

They're working-class white electorates, which is what Trump has really consolidated for the Republican Party. He's won two-thirds of whites without a college degree in each of his three races. But now, in national polling, his approval among them is down to around 50/50, very consistently, in polling across the board. And the question will be, is that enough to get Democrats back in the game in districts like that in Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania?

That is the -- Democrats can win a narrow majority in the House just by winning places like New Jersey-7. To get anywhere into something -- a governing majority or a stable majority, they have to win races like the ones in Iowa, whether it is the governor race or in those House races.

MICHAELSON: So, Peter, New Jersey-7 is a district that is now represented by a Republican Congressman named Thomas Kean Jr. We have no idea where he is. He is out on some sort of medical something, and his team will not say where he is. He's missed a whole lot of votes. Rebecca Bennett, the Democrat, is going to now be taking him on. These are the kinds of races Democrats need to win at a baseline --

PETER HAMBY, FOUNDING PARTNER, PUCK NEWS: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: -- if they're going to take back the House.

HAMBY: So this seat, specifically, there's vanishingly fewer true swing seats.

MICHAELSON: Yeah, as we gerrymander, there's very few of them.

HAMBY: This is one of them, New Jersey-7, right? Like, New Jersey suburbs, a little more affluent, whiter. Tom Kean Jr. has represented that seat for two terms now, famous name in New Jersey. But you're right, he's been missing for almost three months actually and he has not explained where he is with this medical issue.

I talked to a leadership aide, a Republican leadership aide today on Capitol Hill, who said the way they've handled this, the Kean campaign is atrocious. They are "deeply worried" about this seat now. And then you have Rebecca Bennett, who just won that seat. I don't know that much about her, but I spent some time, like, following her campaign a little bit today, reading up on her. I mean, just kind of like a mini Mikie Sherrill, who won the governor's race last year. Former military mom, very focused on affordability, public safety, all the bread-and- butter issues that Democrats are trying to focus on to win these swing seats.

And also, to Ron's point, those, like, river counties too, in Iowa, those places that flipped from Obama to Trump back in 2016, the blue- collar, working-class counties. So they got to do both. They got to win in Trump areas, and then they got to hold on to these must-win swing seats.

MICHAELSON: How do you see the state of the House races right now, Elisha?

ELISHA KRAUSS, CONSERVATIVE COMMENTATOR: Ooh, I don't know. I'm not as enthusiastic as Speaker Johnson is.

(LAUGH)

KRAUSS: I think that historically, being the political nerds that we are, we all know that it can be difficult for, you know, the party in power in the White House to maintain power when it comes to the House and the Senate. But I am going to be slightly optimistic, even for the Democratic viewers tonight, and say, I think that if the Democratic Party, even here in California, maybe not with Becerra at the top of the ticket going through to November, but you see those races where Nithya Raman running as, like, a very hardcore Mamdani-type, you know, kissing the ring of racists and anti-Semite Hasan Piker and, you know, the radical --

MICHAELSON: He disputes that, of course.

KRAUSS: OK. And the radical that, you know, was running against, that had worked for AOC and Bernie Sanders, that was running to replace Nancy Pelosi. There are pockets all around the country, not just here in California, where you saw Democratic voters saying, you know, we're not OK with this drastic progressivism that is the DSA.

We kind of want somebody that maybe will go up against Donald Trump and some of the things that they disagree with on the Republican side, but not so crazy socialist-left. And I think that if -- I'm a hardcore conservative right here, but I think it's actually better for the American public --

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

KRAUSS: -- when the Democratic Party can kind of moderate and move more to the middle, and then, hopefully, both sides can talk and work together.

BROWNSTEIN: You see some mixed results tonight, right? Like, you have the David Valadao seat, the progressive is ahead. You mentioned the woman from San Diego is --

MICHAELSON: (Inaudible).

BROWNSTEIN: You know, there doesn't seem to be a decisive winner in the Democratic primaries this year. I mean, there's Graham Platner, there's El-Sayed in Michigan, we'll see how that plays out. But I do generally agree that, you know, going into 2020, there was a belief among many Democrats that the backlash against Trump meant that the voters were demanding that the party move way to the left. That didn't play out so well in 2020, and it didn't even have, you know, implications all the way to '24 in terms of what Harris did.

Now, there's more of a push in both sides. HAMBY: Yeah, real quick, I mean, I'm not going to, like, brief the entire world on national TV about my local race on the west side of L.A., but there's a State Senate race on the west side of L.A., and a city council race on the west side of L.A. And the winning city council member is just a Democrat who is blowing out a DSA candidate right now just on back-to-basics things -- cleaning up the streets, getting homeless folks off the streets and into shelters, cleaning up parks --

[02:40:00]

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

HAMBY: Like all of these back-to-basics things. And I do think Ron is right, there's been some generational upstarts running tonight that fell short and might fall short. We don't know all the results.

And then also, I think the challengers from the left are also in the cycle not exactly gaining steam. We'll see what happens with Platner and also, I'll say out of Michigan though.

MICHAELSON: And also, there is a difference between a true local race and some of these congressional races which are so much more about national issues these days.

All right, we're going to have more with you guys in a moment. We're going to sneak in a commercial break. We also have Mike Madrid, who knows so much about especially the governor's race here in California, joining us. Stay with us. You're watching "The Story Is: Election Night."

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MICHAELSON: "The Story Is," it is Election Night in America. Results still coming in for California's governor's race, the mayor's race in L.A. Candidates have been courting the Latino vote. Joining us now is one of the experts in that space, Mike Madrid, Co-Founder of The Lincoln Project, Founder of the Latino Working Class Project. Mike joins us from London. Good morning to you.

MIKE MADRID, CO-FOUNDER, THE LINCOLN PROJECT: Elex, good morning to you. Good evening to you.

[02:45:00]

MICHAELSON: Yeah, so check, you're looking deep into the numbers on the governor's race right now. What stands out to you that maybe the average person isn't seeing?

MADRID: Well, look, we do stand on the cusp of potentially having a Latino well-positioned to become governor for the first time in 150 years. As somebody who's been studying that vote, this is a pretty big breakthrough moment.

One of the fascinating things is you are seeing Becerra winning this vote, the Latino vote, but not by the margins, I think, that you would expect. What he is doing is he's commanding a much larger share of kind of white, upper-middle class voters. So you're seeing these oddities like Napa County. East Bay County is performing better for Xavier Becerra than you would expect.

Tom Steyer actually keeping those margins closer in some heavy Hispanic communities. This is changing the way I think the Democratic Party is going to approach politics. It's certainly leading us to a new chapter of California politics. And I think that the way that we look at coalitions are going to be very, very different going forward.

MICHAELSON: You've known Xavier Becerra for decades. You've worked with and worked against so many of the state's top Latino leaders. Is he the one that you would have thought would be the one to get that job?

MADRID: That's a great question. The answer, I suppose, would be no. I mean, I didn't. He was always kind of the person who was always putting in the work, quietly making policy happen. He's that, you know, the reputation he has of being kind of this, you know, more of an accountant than he is a barn burner on the campaign trail. But that's clearly the moment. So much of politics is timing. And his time came. It arrived.

And he, I think, is meeting the moment, at least as it relates to campaigns. What his leadership style is going to be going forward, I think, is kind of going to be up to him. People change when they become the executive of a state this big.

He will be challenged. And I think all of his experience over three- and-a-half decades, 35 years of California policymaking, has prepared him for this moment. He's obviously not the general, he's got Steve Hilton is the way it looks. If that's the case, I think you're going to see some real concerted focus about addressing middle-class issues in a way that we haven't really seen over the past 16 or so years in California.

MICHAELSON: What would you say, and this is just really quick because we're almost out of time, is the percentage chance at this point for Tom Steyer to make the top-two?

MADRID: Oh, I think it's less than 25 percent, less than 20 percent. And that number is -- he is down seven points right now, basically statewide six points. He's going to have to dramatically outperform on Election Day, not just those six points, but overcome some significant barriers. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No.

MICHAELSON: Mike Madrid, thanks so much for joining us. We appreciate the straight talk. More of our panel when we come back.

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[02:52:06]

MICHAELSON: Turning now to the California primaries, where the crowded race for governor is starting to open up. The state runs what's called a jungle primary, top-two vote getters, regardless of party, and that's a look at where the numbers are right now.

Our panel, final thoughts after a busy night on our four-hour show. Peter Hamby, final thoughts?

(LAUGH)

HAMBY: I think whatever happens with Spencer Pratt, unlikely to win if he advances to the general election. But it is -- the story of Spencer Pratt is a reminder to Democrats that they can't abandon public safety --

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

HAMBY: -- as an issue that people care about. It really is something that median voters don't believe Democrats care about, even today. And Karen Bass and Nithya Raman didn't really address it over the last year or so. Spencer Pratt stepped in there, grabbed it for himself, and you know, affordability, public safety, these are things that matter to normal people rather than academic issues or talking point plans or academic plans that Democrats have been talking about for years and years now. It's back to basics.

MICHAELSON: Elisha, final thoughts?

KRAUSS: I would say that maybe the Democrats need to not rely so much on every Republican is a mini-Trump, because not every Republican is a mini-Trump. And clearly, every Democrat who's been running the state for the last 16 years has utterly failed, has been serving -- every Democrat that served the city of L.A., including former Mayor Garcetti, who was here earlier, I would argue, has utterly failed.

So that argument isn't going to work with the average voter, I think, for the long and tall. Maybe it'll work for them in November. I sure as heck hope it doesn't. But maybe a little advice to the Democrats, get different talking points and start to do things, or you're going to continue to see incumbents like Karen Bass not do so hot.

MICHAELSON: But, I mean, is there an example, though, of Democrats in this state losing when using that strategy, actually losing an election?

KRAUSS: I mean, there's been some close calls, and we'll see what happens.

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

KRAUSS: But I mean, there's a reason why Gavin Newsom and the Democrats wanted to gerrymander so bad.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah. I think that's good advice for 2028. And Democrats clearly have a lot of their own to refurbish. But I think the history is pretty clear, at least for the last several decades, that by far the single most important factor in a midterm election is voters' assessments of the sitting president, far more than the view of the party that's out of the White House. You know, in 2018, 90 percent of voters who said they disapproved of Trump voted Democratic for the House. In 2020, it was 93 percent. Susan Collins, in his first term, was the only Republican Senate incumbent or challenger who won in a state where his approval rating was below -- was net negative. And I think that is the challenge facing Republicans. It's a challenge facing Democrats.

In the red states, they have to win for the Senate. If Trump's above 50, it's going to be really hard in places like Texas, Iowa, and Ohio. But anywhere where Trump is under 50 is going to be competitive. And the fact that that now extends potentially to some of these blue- collar districts too, in places like Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin, that's what gives the Democrats the opportunity to build a little bit of a cushion in the House.

[02:55:00]

KRAUSS: I think a lot of voters, including Democratic voters that I talked to, because heck, I live in a liberal Mecca.

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

KRAUSS: -- and 90 percent of my circle of friends and family are on the left, is they want to hear solutions from Democrats. They don't just want to hear Trump bad, Orange Man bad.

You have small business owners, you have multi-generational immigrant families, you have public school teachers that are going, OK, so Democrats, yes I agree Trump bad, but what are you going to do for me?

MICHAELSON: But quickly Peter, the folks that really made those arguments, folks like Matt Mahan and Antonio Villaraigosa --

HAMBY: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: -- got killed.

HAMBY: And Katie Porter. Like people who ran on issues and ideas and here's what I've done to fix homelessness or build housing. They weren't lashing Trump constantly and they didn't get out of single digits. You can see on the screen right there.

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

BROWNSTEIN: I think all this is going to matter in '28, but like, we're talking about the lowest consumer confidence ratings the University of Michigan has ever polled.

Basically, if you're standing on the other side of that, that's the main thing you need at this point.

(CROSSTALK)

MICHAELSON: Thank you guys so much for being with us for the last four hours of coverage here. It's been a really interesting night and a privilege to be able to witness history with all of you at home. We still don't know who won here in California. It could take us three weeks to count the votes, but we'll be with you every step of the way here on "The Story Is." I'm Elex Michelson in Los Angeles. Polo Sandoval picks up our coverage right after this.

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