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The Story Is with Elex Michaelson
Wisconsin Democratic Governor's Primary Too Close to Call; Six States Hold Primaries That Could Impact Midterm Elections; One-on-One with Democratic Congressional Candidate Sam Forstag. Aired 12-1a ET
Aired August 12, 2026 - 00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Elex Michaelson, live in Los Angeles. And time to say my three favorite words.
Election night in America. We've got the graphics, the music, the panel standing by, and we've got a really close race.
We're talking about Wisconsin. Check out the latest numbers in the Democratic primary there for governor. Democratic socialist Francesca Hong, Milwaukee County executive David Crowley, locked in a nail biter of a race. This one could not be any closer. Less than 4,000 votes separating the two. A lot of attention. A lot of attention, a lot of money spent here to take on Republican Tom Tiffany in November.
In South Carolina, the special Republican Senate primary will go to a runoff after no candidate got over 50 percent of the vote. CNN projects that Darline Graham, the sister of late Senator Lindsey Graham and Congressman Ralph Norman will compete in that runoff in two weeks.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DARLINE GRAHAM, REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE U.S. SENATE: I want to thank the Republican voters of South Carolina for having confidence in me. I look forward to the next two weeks meeting with you, listening to your concerns, and telling you more about me and my conservative values.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAELSON: CNN is also tracking primaries in Vermont, Connecticut, Alabama, and Minnesota. We'll bring you updates on those races throughout the next three hours here on THE STORY IS.
Let's drill down on the Wisconsin governor's race. You know that it's a big night when John King is up after midnight Eastern.
And, John, your magic wall is still doing its thing.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The batteries are still working, Elex. Let's hope they last a few more minutes in the magic wall. Look, we're up late because we have another very evenly divided race
in these Democratic primaries. Last time we spoke, it was Michigan, the Senate primary there. A similar story playing out here in Wisconsin tonight. This is a governor's primary for the Democratic nomination. You have a progressive candidate, Francesca Hong, a Democratic socialist, against the more establishment candidate, David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, has the backing of the current governor, Democratic governor. And you have a very close race.
As you noted, this is 40 percent, if you round that up, 40 percent. 3,365 votes, that is tight. I have to tell you, given the way this race has been in the last couple of hours, that's actually the most comfortable lead any candidate has had in the last couple of hours with this race has been 300 votes, 200 votes, 1,000 votes, and swinging back and forth. So we're at 87 percent. So the question is, what's left out there to count, right? Does that hold?
Here's one way to look at that. We look here at the live outstanding votes. What we know is still out. I'll move the map just a little bit so you can see it. The larger the circle means the more votes still to be counted in that location. So I want to move this up a little bit. I'm just seeing the banners on the screen there. So I want to move this up so you can see it. So you see a lot of votes still in Milwaukee where Crowley is leading right now.
No guarantee the rest of the votes will come his way. But that's a good sign. If you're in Crowley headquarters. You see the big circle here. That's Dane County, that's Madison, the University of Wisconsin, the most progressive liberal county in the state where Francesca Hong is from. That's her base. To the naked eye, you see more light blue, which would suggest to you that if the votes that are still out come in in the same way as the votes in those places already counted a slight advantage to Mr. Crowley, to the naked eye, can move this back a little bit now and pop out as you look at it.
One other factor, Elex, as we go through this and then ask me anything you want, if you have the time or move on to your great panel, if you look at how close this is again, 40 to 40. So one of the questions is why doesn't that add up to 100? Well, we've had a number of candidates in this race. Several have dropped out. There are a couple of lesser candidates still on the ballot. So as we watch this race play out and we're watching it, we have to remember this.
We have a very close race, and guess what, about 21 percent of the vote, a little less than that, 20 percent of the vote is going to other candidates. And if you mailed in your ballot early in some states, like in Michigan, when Mallory McMorrow dropped out, if you had cast a ballot for her, Michigan allows you to, quote-unquote, "spoil it." You go up to election officials and you say, I want to cancel my mail-in ballot and take it back.
Wisconsin does not allow that. So when these -- some of these other candidates who dropped out, if you had sent a ballot in the mail for them or showed up and dropped off in a drop box, an early ballot for them, in Wisconsin, you can't change your mind. That will be impossible to figure out how those people would have voted otherwise. But that is definitely a factor tonight when you think of all those votes cast for other candidates, when you have a race that is this close now at 87 percent.
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Still some votes to count. Again, in the last few hours, that's a big lead. But in a big state like Wisconsin, 3400 votes is not a lot.
MICHAELSON: Well, and when we were talking during the Michigan race last week, Haley Stevens was overperforming the late polls against Abdul El-Sayed. The late polls had showed Francesca Hong up pretty easily. I mean, David Crowley seems to be outperforming them, right?
KING: I think, look, there have been questions for the last decade about polling ever since more people are on cell phones and other things. The Trump dynamic has had a part on that. I think that one of the issues pollsters still have is reaching out to black voters. Number one, can't trust the system. Working class voters, I know you have Mr. Brownstein on your panel. He understands this issue even better than I do.
The polling industry has become a question mark, even though the people who do it are very good people. They're data scientists and they know what they're doing. But there's no question that every cycle there's been a question of, you know, what are we missing? What are the pollsters missing here? And I do think after what happened in Michigan and now you get to Wisconsin, that certainly be a conversation going forward.
The big issue is who is your candidate going to be? Is that candidate going to hold this state in November if you're the Democrat? But there's no question that as we watch this fight play out in the Democratic Party, the data is a piece. The data is a piece of it in terms of there are people who tuned in tonight thinking that was going to be a blowout, just like there were people who tuned in in Michigan thinking it was going to be a big race. That's not what we're seeing.
I mean, you know, the Democratic voters will settle this. And we'll see if, just like in Michigan, someone is going to win here by a very narrow margin, just like happened in Michigan. The question is, do the wounds heal quickly? And can you move on to November? But when you say there's a divide in the Democratic Party, those numbers tell you it's right there, right in the middle.
MICHAELSON: It is right there. And just like we saw in Michigan, it could not be closer. It's going to be fascinating to watch those numbers come in over the next few hours.
John King, honored to have you be a part of our show here on THE STORY IS. Thank you.
Now to another legend in politics, CNN's Jeff Zeleny, is live for us in Madison, Wisconsin, at Francesca Hong's watch party.
How are those numbers translating there? And are people there surprised, Jeff? JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Elex, there is
no doubt that there is significant surprise here. We are at the Atwood Music Hall in Madison. There are still a significant number of people here, as you can see, but the crowd has thinned considerably. The reality is they were led to believe, supporters hoped that this would be an early night like Michigan, that this would be an early progressive victory. That has not happened, and for all the reasons John was talking about, yes, polling certainly was interesting. But there was also a big share of undecided voters heading into the final stage of this race.
And the undecided voters, without question, at least talking to many Democratic officials, broke toward David Crowley. I mean, Governor Tony Evers was making the explicit argument here as he traveled across the state with David Crowley that Democrats needed to pay attention to electability in the fall. They really tried to win over those undecided voters, but also the other voters or the other candidates that John was talking about, very significant in Wisconsin. And here is why.
Up until just a couple of weeks ago, there was an entirely bigger slate of candidates. Sarah Rodriguez, the current lieutenant governor, was in the race. The former lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes, was in the race. They both dropped out in recent weeks for various reasons, but they still had their names on the ballot. And a lot of people who voted by mail voted for them. And that adds up to more than 50,000 votes.
There's another candidate right here in Madison, Kelda Roys. She is a state legislator, a progressive state legislator. She also has more than 50,000 votes. So when you add those up, it is more understandable to why this is such a nail biter between Francesca Hong and David Crowley. David Crowley is up, as John was just saying, there by about 3,000 votes or so. It's gone back and forth a bit. But Francesca Hong has only been in the lead about one time.
So what is left? Madison, Dane County, right here where Francesca Hong is from. She's performing well here, but she is still narrowly behind statewide. So the outstanding vote in Milwaukee, the advisers from both campaigns tell me they have their eye on that, as well as the vote here in Madison and Dane County. But the bottom line here is for all the suggestions that this would be a huge progressive show of support that has not happened.
This is a divided Democratic Party, and it really reflects the conversations I had with voters all day long, Elex, who even some of the most liberal voters they acknowledged, look, we live in Madison. We are left-leaning liberal voters. They were concerned about the electability of Francesca Hong -- Elex.
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MICHAELSON: Yes. It's been remarkable to see those conversations you've had with voters over the last few days.
Jeff, stay with us. We don't know if and when Francesca Hong will come out and speak, but if she does, we will bring that to you live. Great to have you part of our conversation, Jeff.
Now let's bring in our panel. As we mentioned, Ron Brownstein, a senior political analyst, opinion columnist with Bloomberg, Democrat Katie Porter served in the United States House and ran for governor and senator here in California. And Matt Klink is a Republican strategist as well as the owner and president of Klink Campaigns.
Welcome back. We were all together last week. It was so much fun. We said let's bring the group back together again.
Ron, as our senior analyst, let's start with you. The big, big thing standing out to you so far.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Second verse, same as the first. I mean, very similar to the story in Michigan last week. I mean, it is the encapsulation of a Democratic Party that is very closely divided and is dividing along familiar lines in these races one after another. Last week in Michigan, we saw El-Sayed run better with young voters, college educated voters. Haley Stevens run best with noncollege voters and older voters.
Preliminary analysis, again, and black voters, preliminary analysis again in Wisconsin. Same sort of story where Crowley is running better in precincts with older voters, black voters, and Hong is doing best with younger and college educated. This is a Democratic Party that is very closely divided. And this is, I think, an embodiment of that. But it matters a lot who, you know, who wins this nomination because they are very different general election candidates.
One thing to note, though, 50 percent more votes, at least in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary tonight. So whichever one wins, you still have that imbalance of intensity.
MICHAELSON: You know, Congresswoman, Francesca Hong has gotten a lot of attention over the last week for some of the things that some would say are more extremist that she said. They've been all over the news, not only in Wisconsin, but nationally as well. It seems like that may have had an impact.
KATIE PORTER, FORMER U.S. HOUSE DEMOCRAT: It might have. But I think what I'm -- I actually don't see this as similar to Michigan. So it's interesting that you started there because I think what we saw in Michigan was very intense enthusiasm for two really strong, skillful candidates. And I think here, one of the things you can see is that fully 20 percent of people didn't like either of these two. And pretty late in the game.
BROWNSTEIN: Or voted while the other ones are still in the race.
PORTER: That's right. But, I mean, but weren't -- these weren't the top two choices for 20 percent of votes.
MICHAELSON: Well, and Crowley dropped out of the race at one point.
BROWNSTEIN: Right.
PORTER: That's right.
MICHAELSON: And then everybody else dropped out and he said, I guess I'll try.
PORTER: The resurrection. The resurrection, right?
MICHAELSON: And so -- and right now he's winning.
PORTER: So I think that is quite, quite different. I think there's no doubt that Francesca is kind of trying to play the Abdul routine, like become a national hero, try to fundraise off it. I don't think that's going to help her win tonight in Wisconsin, and I don't think it's going to help her win in the general election.
MICHAELSON: Meaning you think that she's not a very strong general election candidate?
PORTER: I think she's certainly not been heading in the right direction. I think we saw Abdul toward the end of his campaign get more savvy about what the general election would require of him, and I think we've seen her do the opposite.
MICHAELSON: Yes. Meaning --
BROWNSTEIN: Running against Thanksgiving.
MICHAELSON: Running against Thanksgiving and July 4th and Valentine's Day.
PORTER: I mean, I was personally accused of hating Christmas by Lauren Boebert. So it does go around so.
(LAUGHTER)
MICHAELSON: Right. How do you see this? Because it seems like Republicans were really excited at the prospect of Francesca Hong being the nominee.
MATT KLINK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: The Republican Governors Association was so excited they dropped $3.6 million into the race for Francesca Hong because they want to run against her. So she's clearly -- she's a much weaker candidate. I think that it's interesting here you have the incumbent Democratic governor who's not seeking reelection, Tony Evers, coming out and really being very divisive in his statements about who will make a better general election candidate. That didn't happen in Michigan. So I mean --
(CROSSTALK)
BROWNSTEIN: Well, Whitmer didn't endorse -- I mean, Whitmer --
KLINK: No, she did. She did. She just didn't wait.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, it was late. It was late, and she did -- look.
PORTER: Yes, but -- KLINK: But he's campaigning for her.
PORTER: I mean, there were a lot of people --
BROWNSTEIN: The core similarity, though, between Michigan and Wisconsin is the nature of the coalition on each side. And, you know, we used to talk about the one track and the beer track in presidential -- Democratic presidential primaries. It sort of scrambled a little bit at the presidential level.
But these races are classic throwbacks. It's like the Democratic DNA is kind of unraveling and you see kind of that modern party of young voters and college educated voters on one side, and then black voters, non-college and senior voters on the other. And in these states, you see, week after week, it's almost exactly 50-50.
MICHAELSON: And one other difference, Matt, is that Abdul El-Sayed did not call himself a Democratic socialist. Francesca Hong does. And we have not seen a Democratic nominee in a major swing state who calls themselves a Democratic socialist ever before.
KLINK: Correct. I mean, look, I think that her problem with that is if you're going to -- if you're going to wear it, wear it.
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She tried to wear it and then walk it back and equivocate. And then all you end up doing is pissing off people on both sides. I mean, be true to yourself, if you're going to run as a socialist, run as a socialist, and be unapologetic about it. At least you're enthusiastic about something. But the people who don't like her are never going to change their mind and the people who support her are like, wait, she's backtracking on this, which is attractive to me.
So I think it shows, as you said, Katie, she got weaker as the campaign crescendoed to the final vote. And that really hurt her.
PORTER: To be honest, I don't think Crowley was ever strong. So I don't think this is -- I think this is just really different where I thought both Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens in Michigan ran really tough, really smart campaigns, great staffing, great advisers. This has been a little bit more of a hot mess.
MICHAELSON: But is his -- are people voting for Crowley or are they voting against Hong?
BROWNSTEIN: No. They're voting against Hong. I mean, I think --
PORTER: I think so.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes. I mean, he's clearly just the vehicle -- you know, look.
PORTER: He's the other choice. BROWNSTEIN: He's the other choice. You've got a state where Donald
Trump's disapproval, again, like in Michigan, is close to 60 percent. It's not complicated to win this as a Democrat this year. You only have to win somewhere between 80 percent and 85 percent of people who disapprove of Trump. Democratic voters, at least half of them, are saying, we just want someone who will do that, not someone who was promising a revolution.
MICHAELSON: How important is that word, socialist, Democratic, socialist?
PORTER: I mean, this has been thrown at every Democrat from the most moderate to actual socialist in the time I've been in politics. And I think it still carries a level of toxicity for older voters in particular. And maybe to your point, for working class voters or voters with less education. I think on the part of college educated voters, on the part of young people, they have a completely different understanding of what that word means.
They think it means that a government that will stand up to corporate power. That's what Democratic socialism means to them.
MICHAELSON: And they also did not grow up with the USSR.
KLINK: Yes, there's no Cold War.
MICHAELSON: Right? There was no Cold War. Communism was not a thing. They weren't hiding under the desks for, you know --
BROWNSTEIN: Duck and cover.
MICHAELSON: That sort of thing.
BROWNSTEIN: You know, by the way, let's not lose sight of the fact that the left single payer Bernie-style candidate is winning by 20 points tonight in the Senate primary.
MICHAELSON: Yes.
BROWNSTEIN: In Minnesota. And it just -- it continues the pattern. I mean, each side in this has won significant races along the way. There's been no knockout. I mean, this is kind of a 15-round, on points fight between the left and center in the Democratic primary this year. And it really kind of foreshadows what we may see in 2028. Absolutely.
MICHAELSON: And of course, we saw that in 2016 with Hillary versus Bernie. And we saw it again in 2020 as well with Biden versus Bernie.
BROWNSTEIN: And I'm going to say, I think each of these states split between Bernie one year, Michigan and Wisconsin. Bernie won them once and didn't win them again. And so there's -- these are real battlegrounds.
MICHAELSON: So you guys are sticking with us. We will talk about what's happening in Minnesota. We'll talk about what happened in South Carolina tonight. Also really interesting congressional race in Connecticut to talk about as well, when you guys are back with us, as we continue to follow election results from Wisconsin. We keep getting more and more numbers coming in between Crowley and Hong. We will keep updating those numbers next.
And also we want to get to some important news. CNN learning more about how the Secret Service moved President Trump off of Air Force One and into another aircraft in Turkey without anyone else noticing. We have details on that. Plus an update on the earthquake that we are following in Colombia. Stay with us.
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MICHAELSON: Let's take you live right now to Madison, Wisconsin. You see right there, Francesca Hong coming out to speak and address supporters as this race still too close to call. Let's listen in.
FRANCESCA HONG, DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR WISCONSIN GOVERNOR: What a room of beautiful people. Oh, it's so, so wonderful to see you all. To you all, to my family, volunteers, our amazing campaign staff, and to those in the movement that brought us all here. Teachers, unions, farmers, nurses, parents, students, folks on the line, in the dish pit, folks in cubicles, to the regular everyday people of every age, faith, zip code, to people in every corner of this state, it is an honor of my lifetime to be your candidate for governor.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
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HONG: Wisconsin, we have built something that will change politics forever. The work we have done will be remembered forever. I know we don't have the final results right now, but what I do know is that we are ready to keep fighting. And I feel confident. But more importantly, I am so deeply, deeply grateful to my core for how hard you have all fought and for what this fight, our movement, means for all of Wisconsin.
We are fighting to become once more what Wisconsin has always been. A place where our future is determined not by corporations and billionaires. But our future that's determined by the working class people who live here.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
HONG: We fought through this primary because Wisconsinites have rejected the politics of fear, of apathy and division. We are here tonight because thousands and thousands of Wisconsinites across this great state came together in living rooms, in backyards, in bars, in church basements and community centers. And we came together to demand something new and something better. People across this state have given themselves in ways we have never seen before in this state.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We love you. HONG: We love you, too.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
HONG: And so many of you, so many people across this state have given themselves because they see themselves in our movement. I can't -- I can't tell you, I can't tell you enough how much it means to see you all here, and then to have seen all the art, the music, the community bracelets, mutual aid. We are growing community through a campaign. And through hundreds and thousands of conversations that we've had in places that I don't think folks were expecting to talk about a gubernatorial campaign.
I met so many folks who knocked their first door with this campaign who -- yes.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
HONG: Folks who organized their first event, made their first phone call, text. Hey, they may have even broken no contact to tell their exes to make a plan to vote. And they, they did it. You did it because you truly care for the people of this state, and you care about our shared future, and you care about opportunity for others, for strangers.
We have built a beautiful, multigenerational, multi-partisan, multiracial working class movement.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
HONG: And, and it is a movement that meets the moment. This is unprecedented here. And this, this is how we're going to win together in November. And for Novembers to come.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
HONG: The fight continues no matter what because no matter who wins this primary, we're going to continue to fight for each other. We are going to collectively reject despair, and we are going to unite. We're fighting for our communities whose land Tom Tiffany happens to be selling to big tech and big oil.
(CROWD BOOS)
HONG: Where it's Tom Tiffany's Medicaid cuts that are shutting down our hospitals.
(CROWD BOOS)
HONG: And when our neighborhoods -- defund Tom Tiffany.
[00:30:06]
And when our neighborhoods -- when our neighborhoods and our neighbors are disappeared by uncontrolled ICE fascists, it's Tom Tiffany who shows up in support. (CROWD BOOS)
HONG: And while he's doing that, we are fighting for hope. We are fighting for the freedom to show compassion to one another, and to show care for the people around us. But our compassion, our compassion is not soft. It is resolute, it is tenacious, and it will never yield.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
HONG: It is a demand that we are fighting for each other. And in 11 weeks, no matter who's on this ballot, y'all, we are going to fight to win for one another.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
(CROWD CHANTING)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We will win. We will win.
HONG: We will win together, united. Because everyone who's running in this race, they know that we can make better possible and we must make better possible. And together with each other and for each other, we will make better possible.
Thank you all so much from the bottom of my heart. Thank you, thank you, thank you.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
MICHAELSON: Francesca Hong there speaking as this race still too close to call.
Jeff Zeleny is in the room.
Jeff, did that sound like a victory speech to you?
ZELENY: It did not sound like a victory speech, Elex. I mean, you can see behind me here the crowd certainly was eager to see Francesca Hong. They've been waiting for several hours for that. It did not sound like a victory speech. It sounded like a bit of a placeholder. And of course, both campaigns, both candidates, are waiting for more votes to be counted in Milwaukee County, a few more here in Dane County and a few other places.
But the reality here is the victory speech that Francesca Hong had planned to give, and her supporters were quite confident that that would happen in the early hours right after the polls closed here at 8:00, did not materialize. This was not the race they were expecting. They were not expecting as tough of a close from David Crowley. So I took a note of one thing she said, Alex, she said, Wisconsin, we beat -- we built something that will change politics forever. The work we have done will be remembered. Almost in the past tense there.
So asking her advisers as the speech was going on, they said it's not a concession speech. They're waiting for these -- the votes to be counted. But it certainly did not sound like a victory speech as well. She clearly was on the beginning stages of trying to unify the party whichever candidate wins. She talked about Tom Tiffany, the Republican nominee for governor as well.
But, Elex, this was not what this crowd was expecting here. They're lingering around a bit longer, but it looks like this will go on. Now we are almost in the early morning hours of Wednesday here. But to answer your question, not a victory speech -- Elex.
MICHAELSON: And we will still waiting to hear if Crowley will give what sounds more like a victory speech.
Jeff Zeleny, great to have you with us live from --
ZELENY: And I'm told, Elex, I'm told -- I'm told, Elex, that David Crowley is waiting for Milwaukee absentee ballots to come in. And he may be speaking sometime coming up, but just talking to his advisers, they say they are waiting for a few more Milwaukee votes to come in.
MICHAELSON: So that they could give a victory speech potentially. And we'll see if this race is even called in the next hour or two once those votes come in.
ZELENY: We will see.
MICHAELSON: Jeff Zeleny, thank you for that.
By the way, Congresswoman Porter, did you like her outfit choice of anything?
PORTER: I liked the turquoise. I'm not so sure about the speech, but I thought the color choice is solid.
MICHAELSON: You guys were wearing the exact same thing.
PORTER: Solid.
MICHAELSON: Yes. All right. More from them and more results when we come back. Stay with us. You're watching election night in America here on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[00:39:35]
MICHAELSON: It is election night in America. Our panel is still with us as we continue to focus in on Wisconsin. We get new numbers every moment. Let's show you where the numbers are right now in that race. David Crowley is still ahead. Francesca Hong behind. But about 3,000 votes or so separate the two. A very close race, still too close to call.
[00:40:02]
We just heard from Francesca Hong, Congresswoman. As somebody who has given these speeches before on nights when you don't know what's going to happen, what did you think of what she said? PORTER: Low energy. I would say. I was surprised, especially in a room
where we heard so much enthusiasm for her. I didn't think she played off that very well. I've given speeches where I lost with a lot more energy than that. So I think that's not a great sign about how she's feeling going on to that stage.
I also thought it was an odd speech. Devoid of policy in any way. Lots of buzzwords, movement, community, kind of every kind of kindergarten kumbaya word that I could think of. But I didn't come away with a sense of what she's actually fighting for. So we didn't hear her talk about things like Medicare for All. We didn't hear her talk about things like fighting racial profiling or hate crimes, or some of the work that she's actually done. So it was an odd kind of speech, I thought.
MICHAELSON: And she didn't even say the word, Matt, Tom Tiffany for a long time.
KLINK: A long time like three quarters of the way through the speech.
MICHAELSON: Yes. Who's somebody who's a Republican congressman, who's going to go on and be the Republican nominee for governor didn't get into that.
KLINK: No. I mean, look, having been in the backroom with candidates before these speeches, it's all about expectation management. And you don't want them to get too high or too low, especially in a situation like this. And I mean, I agree with Katie. She came out and she was just, I mean, deflated.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
KLINK: And we kept on saying, God, this doesn't sound like a victory speech as you know, like --
BROWNSTEIN: A lot of past tense.
KLINK: Yes.
BROWNSTEIN: And all that we have accomplished. Right? It wasn't like all that we're going to accomplish. It was kind of like -- it sounded like this was the terminus.
KLINK: She did do a little bit of contrast with Tom Tiffany. I mean, he's got -- he has 10 X over the next candidate, which sounds like a big number now in terms of money, that will -- the Democrats will equal that within about three weeks.
PORTER: I mean, it's not hard to punch at Tom Tiffany especially in Wisconsin. This is not --
MICHAELSON: This is somebody you served in Congress with.
PORTER: I served in Congress with.
MICHAELSON: Not your close friend. PORTER: You know, he's a nice man. Not super strong candidate, not
super dynamic. I think it would have been very easy to give a very rousing speech about the future of Wisconsin, about the future of the country. She could have taken a stab at Donald Trump very easily. He's way underwater there. That's low-hanging fruit and she didn't do it.
KLINK: She didn't take it -- Yes.
BROWNSTEIN: Tom Tiffany tried to invalidate his own state's votes in 2020. I mean, that's going to be something to deal with if he has a, you know, a serious --
PORTER: Yes. It's not hard to come up, like I said, it's not hard to hit that target.
BROWNSTEIN: Right. Yes.
MICHAELSON: So let's talk about what's going on right now in Minnesota. They've got a few different interesting races. But let's start on the Democratic side in the Senate race, where there -- this is to replace Tina Smith in the United States Senate. And we do now have a winner in this race.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Absolutely.
MICHAELSON: This was a battle between the progressives and the moderates. Peggy Flanagan, who's been backed, the lieutenant governor of that state, backed by Bernie Sanders, AOC, and by Tina Smith, defeating Angie Craig, who is a member of the House who was backed by Nancy Pelosi and Hakeem Jeffries and some of the more establishment House Democrats. This is -- let's look real quickly while we have it.
The Republican race there for Senate, not as close. Michele Tafoya who a lot of people remember as a sports broadcaster, doing Sunday night football with Al Michaels and being on TV for many, many years, is ahead big time and is going to win that Republican primary. So it's going to be Peggy Flanagan versus Michele Tafoya in Minnesota.
And this is that battle on the Democratic side, Ron, you've been talking about.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Yes. Look, this was another left center battle in the Democratic Party. Peggy Flanagan and Medicare for All, supporter Angie -- Craig was hurt by voting for that Laken Riley Act early on. You know, didn't seem to be standing up to Trump enough, but I want to point out something else. Beside the ideological fight, Peggy Flanagan is 46. Abdul El-Sayed is 41, David Crowley is 40. Francesca Hong is 37.
The candidate, the Hartford mayor who beat John Larson in Connecticut today is 47. And by the way, that makes us the most incumbents who've lost in primaries since at least 1970 or 1962, depending on how you count.
MICHAELSON: And he was running against a candidate, a congressman who's 78. BROWNSTEIN: Seventy-eight. So, you know, there is, in addition to kind
of an ideological uprising going on or a contest in the Democratic Party, there's something going on beyond that that is really not in dispute. And there's an overwhelming desire in the Democratic Party post Biden for a generational transition. And I think that's going to be one of the most powerful lessons out of this primary season.
Again, looking toward 2028, Barack Obama was 45 years old when he announced for president. And I think someone who's in their 40s or early 50s --
MICHAELSON: Bill Clinton was --
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MICHAELSON: When is his 40s as well.
[00:45:04]
BROWNSTEIN: He was also 45 when he announced for president, I think. In 1991 he would have been 45.
MICHAELSON: Yes. And so -- and J.D. Vance only 41 right now.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Just the generational aspect of this can get lost in the ideological fight. But it is real as well on the Democratic side.
MICHAELSON: Thank you, President Biden, for that. Right, Matt?
KLINK: A hundred percent. I mean, look, we need more young people in politics. The 70-year-olds, they've had their time. They should go chase the little round ball on a green golf course or --
MICHAELSON: Does that include the Republican president of the United States who's --
KLINK: Hey, I think that we should have more younger people in office irrespective of political party. So --
PORTER: And I think that's actually interesting to hear you say that because Republicans actually have done, notwithstanding President Trump.
KLINK: Correct. No. Yes, absolutely.
PORTER: As the extreme example of old age. But -- in office. But Republicans have actually done a better job generally cultivating younger candidates. When I got to Congress, one of my big surprises was I thought that Republicans were the party of old people. I was wrong.
KLINK: Yes, but they were.
PORTER: They were. But they made that shift.
KLINK: They evolved out of it. Yes. PORTER: They made that shift. You probably tell me strategically
whether it was five, 10 years ago, but it definitely was time. They have a real system to lift up newer people. And I think about Angie Craig. She was elected with me in 2018. She has been waiting and waiting now eight years. If she were a Republican, she would have already been a committee chair by now.
KLINK: Higher up, absolutely.
PORTER: Had a gavel, had policy behind her.
BROWNSTEIN: Let me ask you a question. Going into this, the assumption was pretty broad that Amy Klobuchar is almost certainly going to be elected governor, and that she would appoint the loser to her seat in the primary. After you've lost by 20 points, though, can she do that?
KLINK: Well, she can.
BROWNSTEIN: Obviously she can. But would it make sense or would it or would voters kind of recoil against that?
KLINK: It depends how much -- if she crushes in Minnesota she could do anything she wants.
BROWNSTEIN: I'm not worried about her. I'm saying if you put Craig in the seat, could Craig defend the seat?
KLINK: Oh, I think she can.
BROWNSTEIN: She can.
MICHAELSON: And let's look at those numbers, Ron, since you brought it up. So that's also on the ballot tonight. Minnesota Governor Amy Klobuchar, of course, the senator who ran for president, big national figure. This wasn't even close. 89.6, she basically cleared the field when she got into this race. We don't even have pictures of the other people that she was running against.
In terms of the Republican battle for governor, we got a lot of attention on Mike Lindell, the MyPillow guy who's run all those ads and claim that the election was rigged without evidence and has his own TV network and his camera person in the White House and all the rest of it. Trump endorsement didn't work here. Lisa Demuth is the Republican nominee.
Your take, Matt, on Mike the pillow guy, and why he did not win.
BROWNSTEIN: Got a little smothered with the pillow tonight. Yes.
KLINK: Yes -- the jokes write themselves. Right? No, I mean, look, he -- there's a big difference between hawking pillows on television and running for governor in any state.
MICHAELSON: What about hawking election conspiracy?
KLINK: Well, that doesn't help either. But again, this is a Republican primary. But he did run against the House speaker, someone who probably knew Minnesota government inside and out and could out- govern, out-government him when they're talking. So -- and that's still even matters in Republican primaries.
BROWNSTEIN: Look at how many votes again. Look at how many votes are cast in these two primaries. I mean, this is like 400,000 almost? The Democrats is going to be, what, 700,000? Same thing as Michigan, same thing as Wisconsin.
PORTER: I think the lesson here is, again, Democrats shouldn't be such weenies about primaries. We're so fearful of them. The hand-wringing from elected leadership, from party leaders about primaries. But what do we keep seeing? Huge Democratic turnout candidates that are getting better and sharper because of it. I will say, if I am Senator Klobuchar, I am really -- I'm sad that I'm not going to face Mike the pillow guy. He would have been my preferred opponent. The fundraising opportunity.
KLINK: Gosh, yes.
PORTER: I still think she's going to win. I think Senator Klobuchar is terrific, but she's going to have a tougher --
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MICHAELSON: This is a reminder to Democrats and this was maybe another lesson from 2024 that close primaries are good for the system.
KLINK: Absolutely.
MICHAELSON: It gets people involved in the system. And maybe when you anoint people, it doesn't always work because then people don't have buy in into it. Last word, Ron.
BROWNSTEIN: Look, Trump is really unpopular in Minnesota. Should be a good year for Democrats, but so is the outgoing governor.
KLINK: Yes, Tim Walz.
BROWNSTEIN: And so it could be a little complicated for Peggy.
KLINK: And there could be some local level politics.
BROWNSTEIN: Peggy Flanagan is --
KLINK: You're going to hear Flanagan-Walz a lot.
BROWNSTEIN: You are going to hear Flanagan-Walz a lot. Yes.
MICHAELSON: You guys are sticking around. Still ahead, this is really interesting. Speaking of the next generation of candidates, a smoke jumper won the Democratic primary for U.S. House seat in Montana. Can Sam Forstag flipped the district from Republican control? You see him there? He doesn't look like the average candidate.
[00:50:01] He is with us live in studio, when we come back.
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SAM FORSTAG, U.S. HOUSE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE: I know what it's like to work 1,000 hours of overtime and still be holding on by my fingernails, and I've seen the Montana we love burn around us while corporations and billionaires buy up our housing, gut our healthcare in retirement, and strip it all down for parts just to sell it back to us. We're in crisis.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[00:55:05]
MICHAELSON: Democratic congressional candidate Sam Forstag is with me now in the studio. You just saw his ad there.
Welcome to THE STORY IS. You're not your typical congressional candidate. You're a 32-year-old smokejumper, which means you help to stop fires before they start. How did you end up as a Democratic congressional candidate and why a Democrat?
FORSTAG: Well, I started running, actually, because I was working as a smokejumper for the Forest Service until seven months ago. And like you said, we parachute into remote fires, put them out while they're still small. And I was also a leader in my union's local when all the DOGE cuts started. And what that meant in our state was overwhelmingly the lowest paid workers we got. Losing their jobs, having their lives turned upside down. And a lot of those are my members.
When I reached out to Ryan Zinke, the Republican in this seat, time and time again I got crickets. So I said, if he's going to come after my members and my coworkers' jobs, I'm going to come and take his.
MICHAELSON: Yes.
FORSTAG: And he's dropped out of this race so I think we're well on our way. We're polling dead even in Montana's First. And I think people are excited to see what you're talking about, a different kind of candidate and somebody who knows what it's been like on the ground for a whole lot of people in a state like Montana who are struggling just to afford the basics, like housing or health care or childcare.
MICHAELSON: You don't look like the typical Democrat that people are thinking of Democrats right now.
FORSTAG: Well, I think.
MICHAELSON: Why, why are you a Democrat?
FORSTAG: I'm a Democrat because of the party that we used to have coming out of Montana. I mean, we used to send Democrats from Montana who bent the course of this country for the better. I mean, we had folks like Pat Williams who, you know, took his time in a place like Butte, Montana, the Gibraltar of unionism, and he brought that experience to be an advocate for labor and for working people in Congress.
People like Mike Mansfield, who helped pass the programs of the great society. Those programs like Medicare and Medicaid, NPR and PBS, those are precisely the things that are under attack right now, and that a lot of people like me have depended on, whether it's a kid whose belly is full thanks to food stamps or, you know.
MICHAELSON: Mike Mansfield used to be the Democratic leader in the Senate. "The New York Times" wrote an article, "To Win Back the House Democrats Take the Fight to Deep Red Areas," and they profiled you as part of that as well. Why do you think it is that Democrats have lost Montana for so long? And what do you think is the message that's resonating on the ground to change that?
FORSTAG: I think there are a lot of people, working people or union members or young folks, who felt like the Democratic Party left us behind. And so what do you do when that happens? You leave the party behind yourself and you don't have to look any further than the numbers, right? I mean, people making under 100,000 bucks a year. Well, most of them didn't vote for Democrats last year.
Union members, well, we lost about half of them. And a lot of young people, folks around my age did not show up to the polls because we weren't given any cause for hope in politics. I showed up, but you know what? If we got two generations of people in a place like Montana and a lot of the country who can't conceive of ever owning a home, well, it doesn't seem like the people in power are addressing our problems the way that we need them to.
And government, first and foremost, should be a thing that we are able to pull together and create to make sure that people can meet their basic material needs when the market is not meeting them, and the market is failing to meet a whole lot of basic needs. And it's not just housing, it's health care and child care, and it's public services, and it's our public lands that just, well, got gutted by the folks in power, claiming it was all about efficiency.
And what it's really about is them privatizing so many of these basic services to make a little bit more money for their donors or getting them elected. And we got to change that ourselves.
MICHAELSON: Interesting. The issues you're talking about are very much about economics and not necessarily social issues, but it's about people's pocketbooks and their safety as well.
FORSTAG: Yes.
MICHAELSON: Best of luck out on the campaign trail. Sam, thank you so much for joining us on a busy night here.
FORSTAG: Thank you for having me. And if anyone is willing to help, go to SamforMontana.com. It's all spelled out. I mean, it is a rare thing to see a working person in the halls of power, and it's going to take all the help that we can possibly get to make that happen. I appreciate you having me on, and I hope some of the people watching will be willing to help us.
MICHAELSON: Thank you, Sam.
And that's it for this hour of election night in America. It's not over yet. The next hour begins after a quick break. Wisconsin still too close to call. We're getting new numbers. Plus, we expect to hopefully hear from David Crowley. Stay with us.
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