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The Story Is with Elex Michaelson

Wisconsin Democratic Governor's Primary Too Early to Call; Graham, Norman Advance to South Carolina GOP Senate Runoff; Powerball Jackpot Climbs to Highest Total Since December; Total Solar Eclipse Will Be Visible From Russia to Greenland; Northern Hemisphere Will See Perseid Meteor Shower Thursday; Lisa Demuth Defeats Donald Trump- Backed Mike Lindell In Minnesota Governor Primary. Aired 2-3a ET

Aired August 12, 2026 - 02:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:01:10]

ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR: It's election night in America, which means you get a special third hour of THE STORY IS. I'm Elex Michaelson live for you in Los Angeles.

Election night not over yet because we're following a very close race in Wisconsin, super important, where percentage points or less than a percentage point away to figure out who is going to be governor, Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong or Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. We're looking at the margin here, right now, Crowley ahead by 2,782 votes, 39.9 percent to 39.6 percent. Election officials there say results will be delayed after incorrect files were submitted instead of ballot results. Those 28,000 missing ballots could decide who will take on Republican Tom Tiffany in November. Hong spoke to her supporters earlier about what she believes sets her apart from the projected Republican nominee.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FRANCESCA HONG (D), GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE OF WISCONSIN: When our neighborhoods and our neighbors are disappeared by uncontrolled ICE fascists, it's Tom Tiffany who shows up in support. And while he's doing that, we are fighting for hope. We are fighting for the freedom to show compassion to one another and to show care for the people around us.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: So, we were waiting for Crowley to make a speech, but apparently it looks like they're done for the night. This guy, very well dressed with the tuxedo look going on. It looks like the crews are cleaning up. I don't know if they're -- if they're watching us or another network, but thank you.

So, doesn't look like we're going to be getting that speech from him anytime soon. Let's take you to Minnesota. CNN projects that Senator Amy Klobuchar will win the Democratic primary for governor there. She's seeking to take over the office, outgoing Governor Tim Walz, who abandoned a bid for the third term because didn't look like he could win a bid for a third term.

We're going to get our panel in a second, but we start things off for the hour here in L.A. with Steven Olikara, a former U.S. Senate candidate in Wisconsin, senior fellow for political reform at the USC Schwarzenegger Institute, and founding CEO of Bridge Entertainment Labs. Stephen, welcome back. You know this state better than anybody. You've run in this state. You're talking to people on the ground in this state. Where are we at right now in the -- in the Senate race or the governor's race, and what's going on?

STEVEN OLIKARA, FORMER U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE IN WISCONSIN: Well, Elex, I'll tell you the group chats of Wisconsin Democrats have been blowing up all night, and I remember a particular moment about three four hours ago where a friend of mine and I we were looking at the returns in Madison, which is Francesca Hong's core area of support, and she was underperforming there, so that was the first sign that this night was going to be longer than you would expect.

And the other thing is, when you talk to undecided voters, of which there were many, that was consistent in the polling. Many of them have been breaking for Crowley by the folks I was talking to. Probably about nine out of 10 were breaking for Crowley.

So, there are a few things for people to recognize at home. One is that David Crowley is a serious force, and I think his name wasn't known as much nationally. But Milwaukee County Executive is a very serious position, and if you look at some of the reporting from the Journal Sentinel, the state's paper that reporters like Zachary Suri had been reporting on, David Crowley had achieved some major wins, particularly around reducing homelessness in the state, and I think that ties to something what Wisconsin is very proud of, which is a progressive tradition of achieving results.

[02:05:02]

And so, I think that, along with a number of other factors, obviously Tony Evers, the governor endorsing him, and David Crowley having a strong message, has led to the undecideds breaking for him, and simultaneously Francesca Hong, who you have to give her credit, this is still an amazing showing that she's having tonight.

Obviously, politics is an expectations game, but Francesca Hong really built a following around not only progressive issues, but specifically taking on these A.I. data centers, and that really helped to propel her campaign. But some of the late-breaking voters, I think, were concerned about her ability to perform in the general election and her preview of the general election that happened over the last two weeks, as she did a lot of national. Interviews and some of her past problem tweets during so-called woke one came back to haunt her.

So, things can still go either way, but I think Crowley, as we look at these remaining ballots from Milwaukee, probably has an edge.

MICHAELSON: And some of those, of course, were things like, you know, defund the police, tax the rich, but then also not very pro Thanksgiving or Valentine's Day or July 4th. So, we see the David Crowley headquarters. They're taking the sign down there, so it doesn't look like he's going to give a victory speech tonight. If he does in the morning, and would you say that right now it looks like the most likely outcome on this is that he wins this thing, what's the message for him potentially going into the general election, and how close a race could this be in November?

OLIKARA: Wisconsin is always a close state, so you'd have to expect that this is going to be a nail biter, even if David Crowley becomes the nominee. His core message is going to be pragmatic progressivism. You know, he's been driving this message in the last few days that being a progressive is not just about rhetoric, it's about delivering results.

And David Crowley came into this race being the person who had real governing as well as the legislative experience was actually more of a surprise that in the spring and early summer his campaign really wasn't catching steam. But now, if he does move on to the general election, he'll say, I'm a progressive who's going to challenge the status quo, but I also have governing experience, and I can build a statewide coalition.

When David Crowley ran for county executive in Milwaukee, he ran on a message of building bridges. And Elex, you know me, I love that kind of message. And you -- by the way, you need that kind of message to win statewide in Wisconsin. So, I think that's what he'll drive home if he wins tonight or tomorrow.

MICHAELSON: Great brand discipline for the guy from Bridge Entertainment, bringing the Bridges line into it. Steven Olikara, well done there.

By the way, we just heard from our colleague Jeff Zeleny who said that David Crowley is waiting for that last batch of absentee votes that are on these USB drives that apparently didn't get transported correctly, and he's likely not going to speak tonight. Likely going to speak tomorrow morning, which is not surprising based off of the pictures that we just saw there. But wanted to see those final numbers potentially turn this into a victory speech, something he could make for the morning shows in Wisconsin.

Let's bring back in our panel, Ron Brownstein, CNN political analyst and columnist with Bloomberg, Democrat Katie Porter, member of the House and ran for governor and senator here in California, Matt Klink, a Republican strategist as well as the owner and president of Klink Campaigns.

Ron, part of the reason that this race has gotten so much national attention is because not of the word Democrat, but the Democratic Socialists of America, something that Francesca Hong is proudly a part of, something no other Democratic nominee for governor has ever been a part of. And if she loses, is that a big loss for that movement?

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, you know, as we've talked about, the gains for the left to this point, to last week, primarily, not exclusively, primarily come in safe blue areas. The three Mamdani candidates in New York, Harris won over seven percent to all those districts, Denver district won by Democratic Socialists, Harris won over 70 percent in that district. Then Abdul El-Sayed won in a true swing state, Michigan, one of the states at the core.

MICHAELSON: He's not a Democratic socialist.

BROWNSTEIN: But has similar positions.

MICHAELSON: Adjacent.

BROWNSTEIN: Adjacent.

MICHAELSON: But that is important. Here he just says, I'm not -- I'm a capitalist.

BROWNSTEIN: Totally. And then this time you have the actual -- you know, someone who identifies as a democratic socialist, potentially the Democratic nominee, in a state where, as your, you know, last guest noted, a great night for the Democrats is when they win by 25,000 votes. Right? It is -- it is a -- it is a very competitive state at the heart of presidential politics.

[02:10:04]

And again, where you have not only kind of the symbolic implications of whether someone like that can win, the practical implications if Democrats lose this seat to Tom Tiffany, there's going to be complications in 2028 in certifying in all likelihood, given the way that he responded to the 2020 election.

So, the reason why this election, I think, has gotten so much attention, just as Michigan, was because it showed this democratic, this progressive wave to the point of socialism extending outside it, breaking beyond the boundaries where it had been contained, and moving into places where Democrats have to win in November.

MICHAELSON: And Congress member, a lot of people think of California as so far left or so far blue, but before we gerrymandered our elections, we had close congressional races where you actually had to run against a tough Republican and win, which is something that you did in Orange County and helped to flip a district there. You know what it's like to be in a close race against a Republican, and that's what we're looking at here in Wisconsin.

KATIE PORTER, FORMER CONGRESSWOMAN OF CALIFORNIA: Yes, and I think -- I mean, look, the point that Steven Olikara made about Crowley's administrative experience, I give him that. That's right. He knows how to -- he's had experience governing. That's great, he's running for governor.

What he hasn't had experience with is the entire multi-bajillion- dollar Republican right-wing machine, sort of coming at you, and that is a force to feel.

MICHAELSON: You know what that feels, right? PORTER: I know what that feels like, and he doesn't. Now, to be fair, neither does Francesca Hong. Both of the --

MICHAELSON: She's got a taste of that.

PORTER: She had a little taste of it.

MICHAELSON: She's gotten a few appearances on Fox News last week. Just a few.

PORTER: That's right. And so, I think both of them, in some ways. To me, what's sort of, as a Democrat, most disappointing about this election is, this is what we've got, two relatively untested, relatively -- I don't know, like unvetted.

MICHAELSON: You think it feels like a JV squad?

PORTER: I don't -- I don't want to say that because I mean, look, Francesca is a trailblazer. She's first Asian American woman elected in Wisconsin. She's built this campaign out of nothing. So, kudos to her for doing it.

And you heard great things about Crowley. He's brought homelessness down. That's something California hasn't been --

MATT KLINK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: We haven't been able to do that here.

PORTER: Hasn't been able to figure out to do that here in California.

MICHAELSON: We can elect somebody who'd do that.

PORTER: But you're saying, if you're asking, if you're -- if you're me and you're saying what does this race contribute to where Democrats go nationally, I think the answer is not much. Because neither of these people, I think, is likely, especially Crowley, is not going to be a major player in shaping the voice of the Democratic Party going forward.

BROWNSTEIN: They were each kind of the stand-ins, right? I mean, Sara Rodriguez was supposed to be the candidate of the center, and Mandela Barnes was supposed to be the candidate of the left, and neither of them really got traction.

I would say if Francesca Hong is the nominee and she loses, that would have an impact on Democrats.

(CROSSTALK)

KLINK: In a big way. Absolutely.

MICHAELSON: What would -- what would that message be?

BROWNSTEIN: No, look, I think it's a thing with El-Sayed. I mean, you know, the left is going to come out of the '28 primary season with a certain amount of momentum, but the story could change depending upon the results in the general election. You saw again here there are a lot of Democratic voters who are worried about electability. Hard to get back to the White House without winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin for Democrats. If El-Sayed doesn't win in November, and if she -- Hong is the nominee, and she doesn't win in November, I think that really changes the interpretation of this going into '28 for whoever will be the champion of the left, whether it's AOC or someone else.

MICHAELSON: Because progressives, Matt, have so often felt like they've been boxed out of the general election, sometimes by rigged election they would claim by the Democratic National Committee.

KLINK: They have, 2016 and 2020, absolutely.

MICHAELSON: And so, they haven't got that shot because they -- and so, now you're getting your shot in Michigan, and you may be getting your shot in Wisconsin. Here it is, put up or shut up.

KLINK: They've said, give us the chance, give a -- give me the ball, coach. I'm ready to (INAUDIBLE).

MICHAELSON: I can only prove electability if I'm on the ballot.

KLINK: If I'm allowed to be on the ballot, and now they have their opportunity in Michigan, I think it's going to be a clo -- probably a closer race than it would have been if the other candidate had won.

And look, I think that if Hong wins, that's -- I mean, $3.6 million from the Republican Governors Association spent to put her in that seat. They want to run against her. She's a much easier target. Crowley may be a progressive, but he will run as a more conventional Democrat, and that will create some problems. But it'll still be a really close race.

MICHAELSON: And Crowley would likely make almost no national headlines, right? And this becomes more of a local race, whereas Francesca Hong becomes more of a national story and a big test of the Democratic Socialists of America.

KLINK: It would blow up.

PORTER: But let me say, Francesca's policies, similar to Abdul that he -- Abdul El-Sayed ran on, are very popular things. Medicare for all may not be what the typical establishment Democrat is doing in Washington, but believe you me, when you pull Democratic voters, they like it getting money out of politics.

[02:15:00]

KLINK: Until you put a cost onto Medicare for all.

PORTER: Right. But things like the data center taking a position on that, that is a looming issue where establishment Washington doesn't have much to say, but the population does.

KLINK: Well, Republicans and -- BROWNSTEIN: Ssmall point of fact, though, unlike I think your position and Tom Steyer, she does not support trying to do that at the state level. She supports it as a national policy, but basically says it's not feasible for a state to do it, and she just wants to expand Badger Care, their Medicaid expansion.

But the basic point is right. I mean, you know, part of what we've seen in these primaries, I think, is really important. The center has not really been willing to challenge some of the left ideas. I mean, you have not -- you know, Becerra did not presumably by the end of that campaign support Medicare for all, but he wouldn't say that on the stage.

And the same thing. I mean, Haley Stevens did not challenge Medicare for all. She did not challenge abolishing as opposed to reforming ICE. The center is not really engaging with the left in these primaries. They're basically saying these positions make them unelectable. Not trying to make a case against them to Democratic voters, which is what Biden and Buttigieg did in 2020.

MICHAELSON: Last word, Matt.

KLINK: There's a reason why there is so much oxygen around these democratic socialists and super progressive candidates. They actually are saying we hate Donald Trump, but these are our ideas. The mainstream of the Democratic Party, they have one thing, Orange man bad, nothing else.

MICHAELSON: Orange man bad.

BROWNSTEIN: And reverse a lot of things he's done.

KLINK: And that's the challenge right now. That's why --

MICHAELSON: So, what is -- I mean, let me over time. But what is the demo -- the mainstream Democratic platform of what to do? What is the establishment democratic plan if they take over?

PORTEER: I don't know why you're looking at me.

MICHAELSON: I know you ran on ideas.

PORTER: I ran famously as a more progressive Democrat.

MICHAELSON: I know, but I still don't know it. I cover this for a living. I've moderated debates, and I could not tell you what the actual Democratic plan is for governing the country.

PORTER: Look, and I think that is our problem, and I think that is a problem that we are not going to solve unless we get some new people into Washington. They don't have to be new progressive people. That's why I think it's exciting that we're seeing some new, fresh blood even out of the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. We have to be the party of good ideas. Orange man bad, it's true, but it's not a new idea. We've been doing that now for 10 full years, we had that same line. BROWNSTEIN: You can get through a midterm election with that, really.

I mean, but you can't get through presidential.

Well, look, you're not going to fix the country very much while he's president in terms of passing Democratic I.D.

MICHAELSON: And you're probably not passing Medicare for all or abolishing ICE or any of that in its time around either.

All right, Katie Porter, Matt Klink, Ron Brownstein. We'll have more of you guys.

Coming up, Minnesota also counting primary votes. We'll have the latest results for key races, including governor and Senate. Our election night coverage continues right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:21:48]

MICHAELSON: To Minnesota now, some key primary election results. CNN projects state House Speaker Lisa Demuth has won the Republican nomination for governor. Damuth, the top elected Republican in Minnesota, defeated My Pillow founder and conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell, who was endorsed by Donald Trump. She now faces an uphill battle, taking on U.S. Senate Democrat Amy Klobuchar, who ran virtually unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Let's bring in our next panel of experts from Chicago. Mike Nellis, a Democratic strategist and host of "Endless Urgency", and from Stanford, Lanhee Chen, former Mitt Romney Policy Director and Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

Mike, let's start with you, and let's start with the Minnesota Senate race. We can bring those results up, which is interesting. It was a battle between left and more centrist candidate, and Peggy Flanagan, the lieutenant governor, endorsed by Bernie Sanders, endorsed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and endorsed by the retiring senator Tina Smith, defeating Angie Craig now is going to be the nominee against Michele Tafoya, the longtime sports reporter from NBC Sports Sunday Night Football, is going to be winning the Republican primary. How do you see that race?

MIKE NELLIS, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Yes, well, I think it's really exciting. It's a huge win for the left right now. Peggy Flanagan is the lieutenant governor. She's an amazing leader. I think she's going to be a great addition to the Democratic caucus. I think Republicans are going to have a hard time beating her. I think the Republicans are in a really tricky situation in Minnesota. They were celebrating when Governor Walz announced his retirement, and they're rewarded with Amy Klobuchar, who's very likely going to be the next governor. And she is a very savvy, brutal operator politically. You have to have a lot of respect for the grit that she brings to it, and then Donald Trump suffered a terrible loss in the primary because he endorsed the My Pillow guy, Mike Liddell, and he's finished in second place. And right now, Liddell's on the internet talking about how the

election was rigged against him. So, I feel like you have a massive mess for the Republicans. You have a good situation for the Democrats putting their best foot forward, and I think Peggy Flanagan and Andy Klobuchar are going to do great.

MICHAELSON: But Mike, wouldn't you rather run against Mike, the pillow guy?

NELLIS: I would, but I'll take any opportunity to remind people that Donald Trump is a lame duck, and his grip on the Republican Party is loosening.

MICHAELSON: Lanhee Chen, I know you're looking especially closely at what's happening right now in Wisconsin, which is the race that we still do not know who is going to win. David Crowley has a very small lead right now, about 3,885. So that's gone up a little bit since we looked at it the last time. So literally in the last few moments, that's gone up, which is good news for him because it was getting pretty close, she still has a chance to win if she wins big in the late numbers. We still got, you know, thousands of votes still to be counted. How do you see this race?

LANHEE CHEN, FORMER MITT ROMNEY POLICY DIRECTOR: Well, I think the question is always, to what degree are races like this nationalized? To what degree do they become part of the broader discussion around what's happening in our politics, control of the Congress, even though this is a governor's race?

[02:25:03]

And I think in that way, it looks like both Democrats and Republicans have something positive to draw from tonight. I think in Wisconsin, if David Crowley is able to hold on, they're going to have dodged the bullet of Francesca Hong, who I think would have been a big lead weight on a lot of Democratic candidates around the country. Her ideas, you know, as recently as a few years ago, as recently as a few weeks ago, would certainly, I think, have haunted a lot of Democratic candidates.

In the same way, for Republicans in Minnesota, look, avoiding Mike Lindell is a good outcome for Republicans because you would not have to deal with the kinds of things that he would say. To the degree that that race would be nationalized, it would be a problem for Republicans, I think.

So, the nationalization of our politics means that you have these candidates in states like Minnesota and Wisconsin, where they might be running state races. But fundamentally, what they say and what they do becomes part of this national discussion, and I think increasingly that's been the case in our politics.

MICHAELSON: And Lanhee, both of those candidates, to a degree, Francesca Hong and Mike the Pillow Guy, not to the same extent, have essentially been caricatures, right, or turned into caricatures for the other side and used on competing cable news networks as an example of the extremes of what the other side is, and to try to define the other side.

CHEN: Yes, I mean they've become avatars. There's no question about it. And then other candidates have to answer for what these people say, even if they may never have met them, they may not agree with them, they may think their ideas are completely wacky, but they're going to have to answer for questions around whether you think Thanksgiving should be canceled or whether you think there was a, you know, a conspiracy around this, that, or the other.

So, I do think that that is the challenge. Is that it's more than just what these people do in these individual races. It's what they do to their respective parties and their respective political movements nationally. And I certainly think that both of these candidates have exhibited exactly the reason why, frankly, the other side would have been delighted to run against. You know, Republicans would have loved to run against Francesca Hong in the same way Democrats probably would want to run against Mike Lindell.

MICHAELSON: and Mike Nellis, as we look at the numbers from Wisconsin, we are getting word that those USB drives have been processed and those outstanding absentee ballots are coming in, and as we look at those numbers, that David Crowley's lead has gone up, which means I imagine that CNN and other networks are getting close to potentially calling this race for David Crowley. It's hard to see a path at this point for Francesca Hong to win this race.

NELLIS: Yes, you would much rather be David Crawley in this moment. It just seems where the outstanding votes are going to be in his favor, and likely by the time we all wake up in the morning. Although you guys might be on for a little bit while longer, I'm going to bed right after this. We're going to find out who the winner in this race has been.

I sort of agree. I think this might be the best case scenario, though, for both the DSA wing of the party and the moderate wing of the party. I mean, I don't think it's fair to compare Francesca Hong to Mike Lindell. I think she ran a very serious campaign that was centering the issues that people are feeling and the troubles that they're experiencing in Wisconsin.

However, I think it's a very risky thing to put a candidate up who is that far to the left, who sort of like fumbled on some big issues, including some small stuff like talking about whether or not Thanksgiving is a good holiday or a bad holiday, which was a pretty rough clip. You don't want to take that risk there, especially when she's running against Tom Tiffany, who is an election denier and is basically going to do whatever Donald Trump does. So I think this is the best-case scenario.

And I'll add one final thought here too, which is David Crawley is a huge progressive. Like it's still a big win for the progressive wing of the party. I think we're elevating new generation of candidates, and maybe it's not exactly how you would have liked it to play out because the primary's been messy. But I think we're in a good spot, and we'll be in a good position to win this race in the general. MICHAELSON: Yes, we're likely to learn a lot more about David Crowley in the next 24 hours. Mike Nellis, Lanhee Chen, thank you for being with us, and he's likely to get a whole lot of money coming in from his Democratic friends as well.

We continue to follow results in Wisconsin, which right now look pretty good for David Crowley. The race still too close to call, but it may not stay that way for long. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:32:33]

MICHAELSON: It is still election night and election morning, depending on where you are. Back to one of our top stories, the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor. Still too close to call for the moment. State Assembly member Francesca Hong, tight race with Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Thin margin separates them. Crowley now ahead by almost 4,000 votes, 312,000 to 308,000. The winner will face Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany, who has been endorsed by President Trump.

We've been waiting, Ron, for this --

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: This last big batch -- tranche, whatever you want to call it.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

MICHAELSON: It was sort of Francesca Hong's big last hope.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: Didn't look too good for her.

BROWNSTEIN: No. You know, look, I think interesting to compare Wisconsin and Minnesota tonight because I think the story still is, with very few exceptions, El-Sayed is the biggest one, where electability is still a concern. In a swing state, Democratic voters are still shying away from the most liberal options. Minnesota is an easier state for Democrats to win than Wisconsin.

And Peggy Flanagan winning there, and Crowley apparently likely to win in Wisconsin, is revealing of what we've seen around the country.

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

BROWNSTEIN: One other point, the total turnout in this may reach about 90 percent of the presidential-year primary turnout.

MICHAELSON: Wow.

BROWNSTEIN: In 2020, in Wisconsin, Democratic voters are very engaged. And that is a reality that amid all of the kind of struggle in the party, is still out there facing Republicans in November.

MICHAELSON: I say two things that set El-Sayed apart. One, he is not a Democratic Socialist. And two, he is an exceptional political athlete.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah, he's good.

MICHAELSON: Who is one of the more charismatic people that's ever been on this set, whether you agree with him or don't.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: And a lot of these other people don't fit that category.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: There is some credit for credits due for being candidates. There are actually --

BROWNSTEIN: Candidate quality matters.

MICHAELSON: -- candidate quality matters.

KATIE PORTER, FORMER U.S. HOUSE DEMOCRAT: Candidate quality matters and I think sometimes Democrats get too caught up in these labels -- progressive, moderate. At the end of the day, it's not the only thing that matters, but candidate quality goes a long ways.

I would rather have a really talented, charismatic, strong voice with thoughtful policy, with leadership, who's a little more progressive. I would take that any day over kind of a moderate dud. I think that is a tradeoff.

[02:35:00]

Now I will say, I think here in Wisconsin, what we've got is two candidates, both of whom are progressive. One of them is a Democratic Socialist, but these are both progressive candidates and they are running against an election-denying Trump sycophant in Tom Tiffany.

I think, you know, this is not maybe the best example of the litmus test between progressive and moderate. I think the Michigan Senate race was a better example of that.

MICHAELSON: If Crowley holds on, which seems the most seems likely outcome at this point if we're being honest with the audience.

MATT KLINK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: What's the big takeaway?

KLINK: Well look, the guy that we have largely, you know, ignored tonight or called, you know, negative terms, this race in Wisconsin is going to be nail close.

I mean, it's going to be nip and tuck all the way through the end. (CROSSTALK)

MICHAELSON: You need a November, not only (inaudible).

KLINK: Correct.

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

KLINK: Now, I mean, Wisconsin races are always close. I think that David Crowley is going to learn more about everything he has ever done in the next two-and-a-half months and the voters of Wisconsin are going to learn that too. And again, Tom Tiffany has money right now. David Crowley will get the money. So --

MICHAELSON: And talk about the political strategy because this is the kind of stuff you work on, right?

KLINK: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: If you're working for Tom Tiffany, what is the next 24 hours look like?

KLINK: I would want -- why did this guy get no traction? Why did he drop out? Look at David Crowley's record. I mean, I would start picking and probing what's his background. I mean, there's so much research that needs -- I mean, I'm sure it's already largely been done, but I mean, just, I mean, every media interview this guy has ever done, they're going to pick through and then they're going to start dissecting it.

And again, he's got a lot of money. Wisconsin is not an expensive state to advertise in. So this is not going to be a shoe-leather state. This is going to be -- they're going to blow it out on connected TV and on the TV buy.

MICHAELSON: We're going to go around the horn. Final thought from each of you.

BROWNSTEIN: A good night in Wisconsin is when one party wins by 25,000. So it's going to be close. I'm just struck again, the generational -- the generational urge in the Democratic Party that we're seeing tonight, apart from these ideological fights, that is a consistent theme and one I think is going to be a big lesson for 2028.

MICHAELSON: Katie?

PORTER: Really motivated Democratic voters, really high turnout in these primaries than we saw last week in Michigan. We're seeing that again. That is really good news for Democrats. That helps Democrats not just win these races that we've been talking about, Elex, but it helps Democrats win local races.

It helps us win school board races. It helps us win assembly races. All of that stuff matters when there's so much standing up to Donald Trump to be done at every level of government. KLINK: Close primary campaigns make for good general election candidates. The fight in the primary is a proving ground for the general election. So I like -- I love that we're still talking about this race right now.

(LAUGH)

MICHAELSON: And I love that --

KLINK: It's fantastic.

(CROSSTALK)

MICHAELSON: -- we're still talking at 11:30 here on the West Coast --

KLINK: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: -- and 2:30 on the East Coast. And last week when you were all with us and we did an extra hour, our ratings actually grew in the 2 a.m. hour, which never ever happens.

KLINK: Right.

(LAUGH)

MICHAELSON: But happened because all three of you are so fun to watch and listen to. Thank you for hanging out for the last three hours.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

MICHAELSON: Our coverage though is not done and we're still awaiting a result here. So we're going to continue to talk about other elections happening as well. Just weeks after taking over her brother's U. S. Senate seat, Darline Graham is qualified for a runoff for a full term. We'll hear from her next, plus more analysis as we continue to wait the final numbers from Wisconsin here on "The Story Is."

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[02:41:43]

MICHAELSON: We are following election results in South Carolina, where two Republican Senate candidates are advancing to a runoff after a special primary following the death of longtime Senator Lindsey Graham. His sister, Darline, who was appointed to fill his seat, has now qualified for the October -- August 27th runoff. She'll face off against Representative Ralph Norman.

Graham had this to say about two key issues.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. DARLINE GRAHAM, (R-SC): I support the right to life. I believe that every human life is sacred and deserves protection. I strongly support the Second Amendment. I believe gun control is how steady you hold your weapon.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: Live now to Washington and Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy Editor at Inside Elections.

Please say your last name so I get it correct.

JACOB RUBASHKIN, DEPUTY EDITOR, INSIDE ELECTIONS: It's Rubashkin.

MICHAELSON: Rubashkin, thank you very much for staying up late for us, and you deserve to have it pronounced correctly.

(LAUGH)

After doing that, thanks for being with us.

Darline Graham, that's an easy last name to say -- as we bring up the vote totals, it says incumbent next to her name. She's been the incumbent for 28 days. She's running against Ralph Norman, who has been a five-term Congressman from South Carolina. How do you see that race from here, this very interesting dynamic of a new Senator with a name that people are so familiar with?

RUBASHKIN: This has been a real whirlwind. We are basically a month to the day since Lindsey Graham passed away and since Darline, his younger sister, was appointed to this seat. And less than that, since she became a real candidate for this race, a lot of people in the state and in D.C. didn't expect her to run in this election.

So things are very fluid. They're moving very quickly. This is a real race, though. I think Ralph Norman was the most difficult opponent for Darline Graham that she could have drawn in this very condensed two- week runoff. I think either of these two could end up winning the Republican nomination and likely being the next Senator from South Carolina.

MICHAELSON: And it is crazy to think of, just two weeks for all of this to happen, when you think about like a presidential election which goes over two-and-a-half years, that this is such a condensed time schedule as well. It's been a big night on a lot of different fronts, Wisconsin, Minnesota. We've seen elections around the country.

What's your big headline of the night? What's the story that stands out to you?

RUBASHKIN: You know, there are a lot of marquee contests here. The biggest one in Wisconsin, obviously we don't have a race call there yet, but David Crawley looks like he is in pole position to win that race narrowly.

If you want to call it the revenge of the moderates, I think that would be a somewhat fair assessment. But then you've got Peggy Flanagan winning that Democratic primary in a blowout in Minnesota. So the progressives have gotten their licks in too. Look, I think that what this is demonstrating is the breadth of the conflicting kinds of candidates and beliefs within the Democratic Party. You've got a wide variety of people from Luke Bronin out in Connecticut's first congressional district, who just ousted a 14-term incumbent, John Larson, running essentially from the right in that Democratic primary all the way to Francesca Hong, a Democratic Socialist, nearly winning the gubernatorial nomination in one of the premier swing states in Wisconsin.

[02:45:16]

MICHAELSON: And a reminder that candidate quality matters, and elections are local too, and there are local issues in all of these that are maybe not picked up on the national coverage that really can drive voters as well. And it's going to be --

Yeah.

MICHAELSON: -- fascinating to see where we go from here. It's clear though, Jacob, voters are engaged, especially on the Democratic side.

RUBASHKIN: Oh, absolutely. I mean, we heard this a little earlier. I think Ron was talking about the degree of primary voter turnout. We saw this in Michigan last week. Voter turnout was through the roof. This has been a consistent theme in Democratic primaries, certainly over the last couple of months.

Democratic voters are fired up, and they're looking for candidates who are reflecting that fire back at them. When you look at a candidate like Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, who got up there in her victory speech tonight and said, we need to tear ICE apart, I think those were her words, and remove them from our communities, especially in Minnesota.

But in Michigan, Dr. El-Sayed there in that primary, voters are looking for candidates who are reflecting their anger and frustration back at them. Whether they're moderate or more progressive, I think, is a secondary concern to whether voters think that they're up for the fight.

MICHAELSON: Jacob, staying up late with us to share his insights and his artwork, nicely done in the decorating behind you.

RUBASHKIN: Thank you.

MICHAELSON: Thanks so much for being with us. We continue to follow what's happening in Wisconsin. Up next, Steven Olikara, who ran for Senate there, really knows what's happening on the ground, has been in touch with everybody there. He'll be back with us.

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[02:50:44]

MICHAELSON: Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor, still too early to call. State Assembly Member, Francesca Hong, tight race with Milwaukee County Executive, David Crowley. Crowley now up by almost 4,000 votes. Hong running out of votes with 98 percent of the estimated vote in there. It's so close, Steven Olikara, former U.S. Senate candidate in Wisconsin. But it's looking really good for David Crowley right now.

STEVEN OLIKARA, FORMER DEMOCRATIC U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE FOR WISCONSIN: Absolutely. At this moment, right now, you want to be David Crowley.

MICHAELSON: Yeah.

OLIKARA: He -- the Milwaukee ballots have dropped. They have gone generally in David Crowley's favor. I expect that we'll see some news soon, hopefully very soon. But the big story right now is Tony Evers, the Governor of Wisconsin. This is someone who took a major political swing to resurrect David Crowley's campaign, put his entire force behind him.

This was not just an endorsement. For the last week to two weeks or so, right when Tony Evers came back from an international trip, he went right on the road with David Crowley. And in the past few days, you heard the tone in Governor Evers voice in saying, we're going to win this thing.

And having known Governor Evers a little bit, I don't think he has a great poker face, no offense to him. He really believed they're going to win this thing, and clearly tonight's results show that.

MICHAELSON: I just got another brief update. Now, Crowley up 3,211 votes ahead in this race, getting closer and closer. So what are the big issues that are going to be at the forefront, assuming this is now Crowley moving forward. What does the November election look like?

OLIKARA: So now, the race changes. Originally, people thought it was going to be socialism versus MAGA, but now you're going to have a race that's about progressive pragmatism versus MAGA, and that's a very different kind of race.

So Tom Tiffany, the Republican nominee, he is someone who is completely wrapped in the MAGA brand. That is a brand that is underwater in Wisconsin by about 15 to 20 points. And so now, the focus of the campaign is really going to be on the economy and affordability.

What it was almost about to be focused on were these culture war issues and Thanksgiving and abolishing ICE and the police and prisons. That was not a good ground for Democrats. But now, if you start talking about pocketbook issues, if you start talking about how the Iran War has been driving up costs, and David Crowley can say, hey, I've been serving in the Milwaukee County executive role as a leader, delivering results.

That is a completely different conversation and I think that's going to drive the election going forward.

MICHAELSON: Wisconsin is one of those states that it's very hard to see the Democrats winning the presidency without winning Wisconsin. When they've lost it is usually when they lose the presidency.

OLIKARA: Wisconsin has been the decider for national elections for a number of years now. Whether it's 2016, you go back, Wisconsin not just decides elections, but I think we help to decide our political culture as well. And I actually think this result tonight is obviously a game-changer for Wisconsin.

It's a game changer when you talk about the certification of the next presidential election in 2028, but it also reshapes who might emerge in the 2028 primary on the Democratic side. So this has massive, massive implications tonight, it is an earthquake.

MICHAELSON: And it makes it harder for Republicans to create that caricature because what Republicans do very, very well, and Democrats do it as well, but Republicans really do it on one of our competing networks, which is to take the most extreme person you've ever seen for one party and say that person is what every Democrat is.

So every Democrat is against Thanksgiving because she doesn't like Thanksgiving. They can't do that anymore if she's now not in the race.

[02:55:00]

OLIKARA: What's so unusual about this race that we've seen over the last few weeks is the general election had already started.

MICHAELSON: Right.

OLIKARA: And Tom Tiffany and Francesca Hong started going at each other. The Republicans started unloading their opposition on Fran. That became a trial run for Wisconsin Democrats, and they said, we don't like what we're seeing here.

MICHAELSON: Right.

OLIKARA: And so you're absolutely right. This election that was about to be focused on these cultural war issues are now going to be much more about Donald Trump and his economic record.

MICHAELSON: It's going to be really fun to watch, Steven. Thank you for being with us --

OLIKARA: My pleasure.

MICHAELSON: -- the last few hours --

OLIKARA: Thank you.

MICHAELSON: -- as our guide through all of this. One last story before we go. The Powerball jackpot is now the highest it's been since December. The grand prize has soared to an estimated $1 billion after nobody won in Monday night's drawing. The next one will happen on Wednesday. While the payout would be massive, it's still nowhere near the all-time Powerball record of $2 billion, won by a single ticket right here in California almost four years ago. The celestial sky will be putting on quite a show over the next few days. First up, a total solar eclipse that's set to cross over Iceland, Greenland, Spain and Russia. For about two minutes, the moon will line up perfectly with the sun, plunging several countries into darkness.

And in a rare alignment, the Northern Hemisphere will get a dazzling look at the Perseid meteor shower in the early hours of Thursday morning. NASA says the Perseids are the best meteor showers to observe.

Be sure to tune in to CNN Special Coverage of the Total Solar Eclipse at one o'clock Eastern. That's 10 o'clock here on the West Coast. Coverage will also be available on the CNN app. Thanks so much for joining us for the last three hours of "The Story Is." I'm Elex Michaelson. "CNN Newsroom" with Polo Sandoval is next, after a quick break. And maybe, just maybe, he'll get to call the race in Wisconsin. Thanks for watching.

[02:56:57]

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