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U.S. Forces On Alert for Al Qaeda Members Fleeing By Sea

Aired November 22, 2001 - 07:17   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush is vowing to destroy Osama bin Laden's terrorist network but the Pentagon says U.S. forces are now on alert for any al Qaeda members who may be trying to escape by sea.

For more on this, our Military Analyst Retired Air Force Major General Don Shepperd joins us. He's in Washington today. Good to see you, General. Happy Thanksgiving to you.

MAJ. GEN. DON SHEPPERD (RET.), U.S. AIR FORCE, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Same to you, Leon.

HARRIS: Let's start off with the new word that we just got moments ago. I'm sure you were watching a little while ago when our Allessio Vinci reported word of a settlement coming out of talks in Mazir-i-Sharif for surrender of Konduz. What do you make of this?

SHEPPERD: Well, it's good news. Nobody wants to see trapped soldiers killed unnecessarily. However, these surrender terms are very dicey. Remember when the Northern Alliance went into Konduz the first time to reportedly talk about surrender, they were attacked. So although there's been an agreement, it has to be carried out.

The idea, basically, is that the Taliban are going to be allowed to surrender and march out and the foreign fighters in the city of Konduz are going to be interred and tried. So there's a lot of details still to come out and all this is supposed to take place between now and Sunday. Reportedly, the air strikes have stopped. That's what we've heard this morning. But again, lots to be done here.

You've always got the 10 percent that doesn't get the word, so you show up to accept the surrender and somebody starts shooting and the whole thing can fall apart. A lot still to go here.

HARRIS: Yes. Let's talk for a second about those, the so-called foreign Taliban members. Now, these are the Arab and the Pakistanis who have been in there fighting as, with the Taliban, and basically have made up a very strong part of the Taliban faction there in the country. And we know that President Bush has said he does not want them to be able to leave the country to go back to their own countries and wreak havoc from there once again.

With this surrender agreement, what's to keep that from happening?

SHEPPERD: Well, you can inter them within the country of Afghanistan or ship them to another country to be interred. Clearly, we do not want these people to escape and be able to attack our troops and come back and fight again. You know, they've tried to do a U.N. brokered surrender to allow them -- or a corridor to allow them to retreat to Pakistan and the U.S. said no dice, wisely so.

HARRIS: Right. Right. Right. Now, with this development there in Konduz and with all of the rapid gains that the Northern Alliance or so-called, the union there has been able to force across the country now, they pretty much control almost the entire country, why is it that Kandahar is still holding strong? Why is it that Kandahar and the Taliban there have been able to resist anything?

SHEPPERD: Well, Kandahar is a much more convoluted situation. Remember, there hasn't been any fighting going on there because the Northern Alliance and the opposition that's come from the north has taken about 75 percent of the country. But Taliban, but the Taliban stronghold has been Kandahar down there.

Now, reportedly what's going on is Mullah Omar has been negotiating the turnover of Kandahar to the tribal chiefs from the area, but the tribal chiefs, the Pashtun tribal chiefs, are from whence the support of the Taliban came in that area. So it's unclear if you turn control back to them where their sentiments really lie.

Remember, Hamid Karsi has been trying to be down in that area and whip up activity from the Pashtun tribal chiefs to attack the Taliban in Kandahar. So there's lots to be done, but it does not look a fight is shaping up any time soon there. I'd be surprised if it's not negotiated down there, too. But it's much more murky down in that area.

HARRIS: Yes, OK, then, how about the case of where is Osama? That question, of course, is the perennial question here. How about the area now that the U.S. and the coalition think that he may actually be? Has that area shrunk any in the last few days?

SHEPPERD: Well, we think he's probably in the Kandahar area is the best information that we can get right now. That's where we think he is. But there's so many places in that country he could be. But clearly he's running out of friends, he's running out of places to go. If you or anybody else know where he is, $25 million is laying on the table for you. But, of course, he can escape from that country. And we've got a telestrator here in Washington that I can use if we can go to it.

HARRIS: Let's see it.

SHEPPERD: And take a look at his possibilities. Basically, coming out of Afghanistan, he could go over land down to the sea. There are several seaports down here in Pakistan. He could go over land and around and he could get on a boat down here. And then once he gets on that boat, of course, he could go into Oman right here. He could go further south down to this area and go down to, go down into Somalia or Yemen, for instance, any of those areas.

Now, Yemen is his ancestral home.

The problem for him is no matter where he goes, whoever accepts him is going to suffer his same fate. It's very clear that their next immigrant will be the U.S. military and anybody that houses him their next visitor is going to be a 2,000 pound bomb from a U.S. aircraft.

HARRIS: Yes.

SHEPPERD: He's really running out of options.

HARRIS: Are you betting that he's in a house right now or in the mountains?

SHEPPERD: I'm betting he's in the mountains in a cave and I'm betting he's also moving. I'm betting it's also going to be very difficult to get him our wherever he is. And I'm also betting in the end that he's probably going to take his own life.

HARRIS: We see the General is a betting man.

Thanks for betting with us this morning. Appreciate it, General. Thank you for coming in on Thanksgiving and we'll talk to you a bit later on this morning.

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