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Can U.S. Halt Mideast Killings?; How Much of Conflict Lies With Personalities of Arafat, Sharon?; Mideast Conflict Hits Home at Gas Pump
Aired April 13, 2002 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: There will not be a solution that will be produced by terror or will be produced by a response to terror.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KATE SNOW, HOST: High-stakes diplomacy. Can the United States halt Mideast killing, and at what risk to its own war against terrorism? We'll talk to Senator Jon Kyl, Republican of Arizona, about the Powell visit, the special U.S. alliance with Israel, and what the U.S. can win or lose.
How much does Mideast upheaval boil down to two men, Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat? We'll hear from guests with face-to-face familiarity with these two leaders.
And Mideast fighting and the war on terrorism hit home at the gas pump. Has the U.S. already waited too long to break its addiction to imported oil? And what choices are left?
All just ahead on CNN's SATURDAY EDITION.
Good morning to California, the rest of the West, and our viewers across North America. I'm Kate Snow in Washington. We will have the latest on the Mideast violence and the Powell mission. Our gusts come with new insights on what's happening and what may lie ahead.
In a few minutes, we'll bring you the president's radio address live. A few days before April 15, he's talking taxes. We'll have editorial cartoons and My Turn, a look at the week.
As always, we want your questions, as well. The address is saturday.edition@cnn.com.
Senator Jon Kyl in just a moment, but first a news alert.
(NEWSBREAK)
We're just a couple of minutes away from the president's weekly radio address, but joining us first is Arizona Republican Senator Jon Kyl. He is a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, also sits on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. He was with former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as he made the Washington rounds earlier this week.
Senator Kyl, thanks for being with us.
SEN. JON KYL (R), ARIZONA: My pleasure.
SNOW: Yasser Arafat, should Colin Powell sit down with him tomorrow?
KYL: That's his call. If he wants to do it, fine. If he doesn't do it, I wouldn't blame him. But I think the statement that you just referred to is essentially irrelevant. It doesn't appear to say a whole lot. It talks about the cycle of violence, trying to equate the Israeli defense of its citizens with the terrorism. And we've heard statements from Arafat in the past. But if that's what Powell thinks he needs to have the meeting, then fine.
SNOW: Very quickly, do you think they're being too soft on Arafat?
KYL: Well, I think the president and his spokesman earlier this week made a very important point in that regard. They said all of the attention has been focused on the Israeli withdraw. How about the Arab states that Powell had been meeting with? The leader's trying to convince them to stop supporting the terror, and he didn't get very far with it apparently.
SNOW: We're going to take a quick break, listen to President Bush as he delivers his weekly radio address. We'll come right back.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Good morning.
Monday is tax day, and this year tax day will be different. This year, your tax rates are lower and you will keep more of your hard- earned money to spend or save as you see fit. Last year, I signed a tax relief bill that will continue to reduce federal taxes by more than a trillion dollars over the next 10 years.
Relief began almost immediately. Single taxpayers received checks for up to $300. Single parent taxpayers received up to $500, and married couples received up to $600. By now, American taxpayers have already benefited from $57 billion in tax relief.
Yet when it comes to tax relief, once is not enough. So the best news is that tax relief is continuing this year. The child credit was increased to $600 and made available to lower-income Americans. For a single mom with two kids making $18,000, this one change alone provides $800 in tax relief.
We're beginning a new low, 10 percent bracket this year. We are making it easier for low-income workers to take their first steps up the ladder of opportunity. And starting this year, you will be able to save more of your money tax-free, whether in an education savings account, an IRA, or a 401(k). Tax relief helps the working people of our country with more money to provide for their families and pay their bills.
And perhaps the best news of all is that even more relief is on the way for many years to come. The tax bill will continue to increase the child credit, up to $1,000 per child by the year 2010. The marriage tax will be reduced, and the unfair death tax will be completely abolished.
Millions of successful small businesses that pay on the personal- income-tax schedule will find their taxes are going down. And when the tax cut is fully phased in, 43 million married couples will see their taxes reduced on average by over $1,700 per year. Thirty-eight million families with children will receive an annual tax cut of almost $1,500 to help pay for education, child care or other expenses. Eleven million single mothers will be able to keep an average of $770 more of their income each year to care for their children. Thirteen million seniors will see their taxes reduced on average by more than $900. And 3.9 million Americans will have their income tax liability completely eliminated.
Next week, the House will take up legislation to make this tax relief permanent, and I urge Congress to pass this vital measure.
Tax relief is a crucial part of my administration's overall economic growth agenda, to create more high-paying jobs. Like our balanced energy plan and our determination to knock down trade barriers, tax relief will help you achieve the economic security you need to realize your dreams.
Thank you for listening.
SNOW: President Bush with his weekly radio address, talking taxes.
We're sitting here with Senator Jon Kyl, Republican from Arizona.
Did you pay your taxes yet?
KYL: We have filed for an extension.
(LAUGHTER)
SNOW: Oh, no. Well, all right. Most of us have until Monday to get it done.
Let me go back to the Middle East, because we were deep into that a moment ago, Yasser Arafat and the question whether Powell should be meeting with him. There are Republicans who are, I think, privately we're hearing, being very critical -- privately -- of the administration that they're walking too fine of a line, being too neutral. But doesn't the U.S. have to be neutral?
KYL: Well, the United States has never pretended to be neutral in the Middle East. We recognize that Israel is our best ally in that region, and everybody knows that. And the Arab states, I think, have accommodated to that.
But the United States has also been the only country that could really mediate between Arab and Israeli issues. And so we have generally played that role. But it's within the context of being a very good ally of Israel.
SNOW: Should President Bush not have made the call on Israel to withdraw from the West Bank?
KYL: Well, it's hard for somebody who is not privy to all of the things that he's dealing with. He's talking to these leaders by telephone. Powell is reporting to him and so on. And I think it's not appropriate to second guess the president, particularly when Colin Powell is in the region trying is best to bring the parties together, to try to get some kind of a cease-fire.
SNOW: Senator Jon Kyl, stay with us a for a few minutes. We're going to take a quick break. When we come back, we'll check in in the region and talk about some of the developing news there.
We will come right back with more with Senator Jon Kyl. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SNOW: We're going to check in now with CNN's Andrea Koppel, who is in Jerusalem in the region following Secretary Colin Powell's visit over there. Andrea, tell us the latest, the reaction from the U.S. government to this Palestinian Authority statement.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN STATE DEPARTMENT CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon Kate. Well right now, we have spoken with some of the those who are in Secretary Powell's traveling party, and they say that they are working a statement up right now, and that it looks good. I think reading between the lines here, the statement that was made condemning terrorism and acts of violence of all kinds by Yasser Arafat and the Palestinian leadership does seem to satisfy the most fundamental requests or precondition, if you will, that Secretary Powell put forward yesterday before Chairman Arafat as a condition for this meeting to go ahead.
And so I think that it's fair to assume at this point that the U.S. will at some point today say that Secretary Powell's meeting will go ahead. As you know, it was supposed to happen today, it was supposed to happen on Saturday in Ramallah at Yasser Arafat's besieged compound, and following Friday's suicide bombing, Secretary Powell put it on hold for at least 24 hours.
This is a meeting, Kate, that the U.S., that Secretary Powell very much wants to go forward, but under the conditions felt that it would be unseemly for him to travel to meet with Yasser Arafat when the young woman who blew herself up yesterday was a Palestinian woman from the settlement -- rather from the refugee camp of Jenin in the West Bank.
It has really been an untenable situation thus far. Secretary Powell met with Ariel Sharon, the prime minister, yesterday, didn't get what he needed, the quick withdrawal of Israeli forces from the West Bank. And now the secretary really does need to have this meeting with Yasser Arafat, to try to nudge this forward, Kate.
SNOW: Andrea Koppel, live from Jerusalem, following the story there. Thank you so much.
We're continuing our conversation here in Washington with Republican Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona.
Senator Kyl, why so much support in the Congress for Israel?
KYL: Well, historically, Israel has been the only democracy in the Middle East. It helped us during the time of the Cold War. We have very long-standing ties with the Jewish people. And of course, after the United Nations really established the state of Israel following World War II, we were one of the primary allies that helped Israel in its various conflicts. So there are a lot of ties between the American people and Israel.
SNOW: Palestinians say that Israel is violating them, is in there with tanks running over houses with sometimes people inside, innocent civilians. They say snippers are shooting while children are crossing plazas. Isn't there equal amount of blame on both sides of this though?
KYL: No, there isn't. You know, I suppose people in Afghanistan could point to certain civilian casualties that occurred there as a result of the United States military action going after the Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Innocent civilians unfortunately get killed in war. That's one of the things that's so tragic about this whole thing.
But I think Israel has tried to be careful in going after the terrorists. Bear in mind that Israel didn't attack anybody. Israel was attacked. It's citizens were attacked on an almost-daily basis.
SNOW: So you see this in the context clearly of the war of terrorism?
KYL: Indeed. This is Israel's war on terrorism. And it is too bad that sometimes innocent civilians are killed in the context of battle, but at least the Israelis didn't set out to kill innocent civilians, as the terrorism bombers have done.
SNOW: Is it consistent then for the U.S. to have the war on terrorism going on and yet not equally support Israel, an ally?
KYL: I think we have been supporting Israel, and that's one of the reasons that Secretary Powell went to the region. Again, one of the key things that the president's spokesmen have said is that Secretary Powell wanted to talk to these other Arab leaders who are the ones that really prop Arafat up, who harbor, sponsor, finance that terrorism.
And I don't think he got the answers that he wanted from those Arab leaders, and I'm sure he was very disappointed in them. Because until they cut off their support from Arafat, he will be able to continue to engender the hatred and develop the terrorists who will attack Israelis.
SNOW: What can Powell do if he sits down with Arafat tomorrow?
KYL: I don't know. I suspect he'll deliver a very tough message, and Colin Powell can do that.
KYL: It is literally Arafat's last chance. I suspect, but I don't know, that that will be one of the messages he delivers.
SNOW: You think they're fed up with Arafat?
KYL: Oh, yes. Oh, yes.
SNOW: You suggested earlier this week that he's reaching the limit.
KYL: Everybody is fed up with Arafat, and I think that's a fair thing to say. He has broken promise after promise after promise. He hasn't helped his own people. He had the ability to accept a Palestinian state with virtually everything that they had ever asked for. Turned it down because the militant terrorist-oriented Palestinians don't really want the state that they were offered; they want a state that includes all of Israel. That's unacceptable.
SNOW: You sort of played host this week to Benjamin Netanyahu, the former prime minister of Israel. He was on Capitol Hill, had a number of different meetings with Republicans and Democrats alike. I'd like to play a quick soundbite of something he said, some strong words from Mr. Netanyahu.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BENJAMIN NETAYAHU, FORMER ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: If we do not shut down the terror factories that Arafat is hosting, those terror factories that are producing human bombs, it is only a matter of time before suicide bombers will terrorize your cities here in America. If not destroyed, this madness will strike in your buses, in your supermarkets, in your pizza parlor, in your cafes.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SNOW: Terrifying words, do you agree?
KYL: Yes. Well, he expressed those both to members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, and I heard a lot of expressions by fellow senators that we're very concerned that what said could well be true.
SNOW: In a position paper that you wrote, it was on your web site, you wrote earlier, I think a week ago, that if you think about it in terms of the U.S., if something like this were happening in the U.S., if there were suicide bombers going into shopping malls, I think you said, in various American cities, it would be seen completely differently. But do you think that actually could happen? KYL: Yes, it could happen. And by the way, I think most Americans do view this as -- view these acts of terror as just exactly what they are, and I think that's why they're instinctively supportive of the Israeli government going after the terrorists, trying to stop it.
But I think that Netanyahu is correct, that you've got to stop terrorism or it will spread. And as a member of the Intelligence Committee, I can tell you that there are organizations every bit as bad, if not worse, than Al Qaeda, and they have a presence in the United States and they have fostered suicide bombing.
SNOW: Because you sit on that Intelligence Committee, you're privy to a lot of intelligence information that I'm sure you can't discuss. But I wonder, do you feel more confident or less confident now, post-9/11, about our intelligence capabilities, about being able to track down terrorists?
KYL: We have made a lot of progress since September 11, and it was necessary. Actually, September 11 made it possible for us to go after a lot of these people in other countries, too, because we've gotten a lot of help from countries all over the world, even some countries that haven't been that friendly toward us in the past. But we've gotten a lot of help in rounding these people up.
We're not done by a long shot. But we have stopped, not in the United States but abroad, we have actually stopped several acts of terror against United States facilities or Americans as a result of the intelligence that we picked up.
SNOW: Is Congress being kept abreast of all this? There have been some complaints from the other side of the aisle. Senator Daschle, again this week, said, "You've got to keep us more informed," the Congress more informed.
KYL: Well, about once every week or two, we get a briefing from Secretary Rumsfeld, from the head of the CIA, from people like Paul Wolfowitz, Secretary Powell has been there, members of the Joint Chief. So we get a lot of briefings. And of course, in his position as majority leader, Tom Daschle has but to ask and his questions will be answered.
SNOW: Senator Jon Kyl, Republican from Arizona, I really appreciate your time this morning. Some interesting insights on the Middle East.
KYL: Thanks, Kate.
SNOW: Straight ahead, up and down gas prices here at home. What are the links to the Mideast, fighting the war on terror, and an outdated energy policy? We'll talk to two experts when CNN's Saturday Edition continues.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) ARI FLEISCHER, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: As the American consumers know, they're increasingly paying for -- paying more money at the gas pump to fill up their car. And Saddam Hussein has just said that he would cut off oil to the United States.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SNOW: White House press secretary Ari Fleischer commenting on rising pump prices here at home and the downside of U.S. dependence on Mideast oil.
Joining us now is Daniel Yergen. He is author of the 1992 Pulitzer Prize winning book, "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power." His series, "The Commanding Heights, the Battle for the World Economy," is running right now on PBS. He is also the president of Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
Also with us, Christopher Flavin. He is president of the Worldwatch Institute.
Both of you have long experience in this area of oil and energy. How real, Daniel Yergen, to you think is the connection between Mideast violence and prices at the pump here in the U.S.?
DANIEL YERGEN, AUTHOR, "THE PRIZE": What we've seen in this last couple of weeks is that some of it is the Middle East, but at least as important over the last week or two was the disruptions in Venezuela and the threat of chaos from that country. And we've seen prices ease off with this change in the political situation in Venezuela.
SNOW: Is a lot of it about fear of a crisis in the Mideast more than the reality of a crisis, do you think?
CHRISTOPHER FLAVIN, WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE: Well, I think the reality is that we have a relatively tight overall oil market these days. I mean, it's tighter than it's been generally for most of the last 20 years.
There is certainly some ability to increase production in the relatively short run, but it's fairly limited. And most of that swing capacity, as it's called, is in the Middle East, this politically vulnerable region. And that's why I think you see the market reacting to even the possibility of a disruption. SNOW: Dan, you have said that this could have serious impact on the overall U.S. economic recovery that we seem to be on now. Explain that. I mean, just oil has that much impact?
YERGEN: Well, we saw that at the end of 2000 when people said, "Oh, oil and natural gas, it's old economy." And then it turned out it was one of the factors -- not the only one, by any means -- that pushed us into recession.
And if we saw oil prices above $30 a barrel for a while and uncertainty, both the direct economic effects and the effects on psychology would be very important. And there is concern here in Washington that this would abort the recovery. And I think just what you said before about psychology and panic is one of the elements you have to take into account and...
SNOW: The fear of something going wrong.
YERGEN: Yes.
SNOW: Remind us. What are we at now? You said $30 a barrel is bad. Where are we now?
YERGEN: Well, we're now at about $24, just under $24 a barrel.
SNOW: Gas prices this summer, do people have reason to be worried about their summer travel plans? Do you see it? Can you predict at all? Do we see it going up, or does it really depend on what happens in the Middle East?
FLAVIN: Well, I think that that's the thing that's disturbing, is that it is very unpredictable. It really depends on events.
I think you could write quite an optimistic scenario if things don't get out of control in the Middle East, if we don't have another major terrorist incident. I expect that we'll actually see prices significantly decline from where they are now.
But certainly, any major disruption at this state, whether it be in Venezuela or Saudi Arabia or someplace else, could cause real hardship for the consuming public.
SNOW: Iraq said this week, they encouraged a lot of Arab countries to form a boycott. Nobody joined them, but they themselves are going to at least stop producing...
YERGEN: Right.
SNOW: ... stop sending oil to Israel's allies, including the U.S., for at least up to a month, I guess, is the way they put it.
YERGEN: Right.
SNOW: Does that have a real impact?
YERGEN: Not really. Initially, early in the week you saw it, but it was sort of greeted with deafening silence. Most of the exporters, the last thing they want to do is put an embargo against the United States and other countries, their major customers, because it's their own national revenues that they would be cutting off.
SNOW: They make money.
YERGEN: Yes. It's what they live on.
SNOW: Do you want to comment on that? Do you think it has much impact?
FLAVIN: It certainly doesn't in the short run, because there is the capacity of other countries in the Middle East that are much more friendly to the United States to make up for that production.
I think that the concern that we have to have, though, is about the overall public opinion. While the leaders in these countries are certainly supportive of us, it's clear that the majority of the public in most of the Middle Eastern countries are four-square behind the Palestinians.
And so, you have to look at the medium and longer run and really wonder, I mean, politically, whether those countries are going to be able to hang on indefinitely.
And I think it's one of the reasons that Secretary Powell's trip to the Middle East is so important now, because we do have to deal with those longer-term, underlying issues.
YERGEN: And until the situation stabilizes, there's going to be a risk in the market right now. Right now there's a giant sigh of relief at the end of this past week, but if the situation -- you can expect prices to go up...
SNOW: Because it went back down at little bit at the end of the week.
YERGEN: Yes.
SNOW: If the U.S. invades Iraq again, it's probably going to be under the banner of the war on terrorism. It's not going to be like the last time around, where it's all about oil and all about energy security.
So do you think the war on terrorism has lessened the role of oil in politics or increased the role of oil in politics?
FLAVIN: I think it has certainly increased the role of oil. And we've now brought Central Asia, which is the area of the world that many thought would be able to begin to join the Middle East as a major producer.
And I think the real danger that exists -- and again, this is why the administration is so focused on the Middle East right now -- is that, you know, if we were to have a war against Iraq, and if we were not to have the Saudis and the Kuwaitis, the other Gulf states with us, then you really could be looking at an apocalyptic situation.
YERGEN: Yes. I mean, I think you certainly saw here in Washington, several weeks ago, you had a strong sense that there was a consensus, actually, a pretty strong consensus about acting on Iraq because of a concern about weapons. But what's happened, of course, with the Arab-Israel situation has really created new constraints in terms of what the U.S. can do and how isolated the U.S. would be.
SNOW: Right. We'll talk a little bit more in just a second, the politics of oil, the impact on your wallet. Our guests are going to take your questions and e-mails, as well, when CNN's Saturday Edition returns.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SNOW: An important source of information about the news of the day, the terrorism war, and Mideast violence can be found at cnn.com. The AOL keyword, of course, CNN.
It's time for a check of the hour's top stories. Here's Kyra Phillips in Atlanta with this news alert.
(NEWSBREAK)
SNOW: Back to terrorism now, Mideast and U.S. energy supplies. World events have revved up congressional debate over drilling in the Alaskan wilderness, with critics poking fun at the administration.
Well, we were waiting for some sound there. I apologize. We were waiting for sound from Senator Ron Wyden, a Democrat of Oregon, who spoke out this week, poking a little bit of fun at the Senate's ANWR provision, the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, saying that it's all a big game, basically.
Let's talk a little bit about that. The Senate is set to consider that part of the energy bill this week. Is the U.S. so dependent on the Middle East, for example -- part of the bill is to increase domestic supplies. How important do you think it is to increase domestic supply?
YERGEN: Well, the Middle East is about 25 percent of our total exports, and of course, the Middle East is central to world energy supplies. I think if you're looking at what the U.S. ought to do on energy, it's been pretty clear that we should act on conservation, we should act on renewables, and we have to act on production. Otherwise, our imports just go up and up.
SNOW: What to pick that up? What do you make of the Senate energy bill that says, look, we've got to broaden, we've got to diversify, or else the U.S. is going to be in trouble?
FLAVIN: Unfortunately, the amount of oil that's projected to be in the Arctic refuge is not a significant amount of oil when it comes to the problem that we're dealing with. I mean, the world...
YERGEN: I have to disagree with that. I mean, no one knows because they really haven't drilled.
FLAVIN: Well, the...
(CROSSTALK)
YERGEN: ... of the 19th century was asked once whether oil is there. He said, "You'll only know when...
FLAVIN: Yes, but...
YERGEN: Maybe there is very little. But it's just, both sides make very affirmative statements, but you don't know. FLAVIN: Right. But even the more optimistic estimates, by those that are strong proponents, argue that you might get another million barrels a day.
YERGEN: Which is more than we import from Iraq right now.
FLAVIN: Yes, but we're also in a world where we're producing, worldwide, more than 70 million barrels a day. The Saudis can literally increase or decrease, in response to what they want to do, their production by that much in a matter of days. So it's not going to fundamentally change the balance.
You know, you can make a case for it or against it, but I think it's important to see that it's relatively marginal compared to, for example, the gains that we could make if we were to pass the fuel- economy standards that were considered in the Senate a couple weeks ago, which -- and this is just a matter of simple mathematics -- had the potential to yield many times that amount of oil.
SNOW: I want to get in a phone call quickly. There's somebody holding for us, on the line from Illinois.
Are you there, caller?
CALLER: Yes, thank you.
SNOW: Go ahead.
CALLER: I'm a small, independent oil producer, and I can understand the importance of low gasoline prices to consumers. But what are the implications of crude and gasoline prices going too low and remaining low?
YERGEN: What happens when prices go very low, you get a bust and a boom situation. You wipe out -- as lower U.S. domestic production, I mean, our imports go up and set the stage for higher imports. So when they get too low, ultimately they set the stage for the next price increase.
SNOW: So any kind of volatility, whether it's real low or real high prices, is not good?
YERGEN: Yes. I mean, that's right. You just wipe out some of our production. And also, you make it harder for alternatives and renewables to compete because the prices then are very cheap.
SNOW: Going back to the supply, again, I still feel like I want to get at that a little bit more, because I think that there is this sense that the U.S. is very dependent on other countries, whether it's the Middle East or Venezuela or Russia or...
YERGEN: Well, we import much more oil today than we did in 1973 at the time of the embargo.
What's happened is it's diversified and there's more oil production in more places. And one of the most interesting things, Kate, right now is the recovery of the Russian oil industry, which is now up there again producing at the same levels as the Saudis. And in this new relationship last week, President Bush referred to Russia as our "new friend"...
SNOW: Right.
YERGEN: That there's this new thought that Russia will play a larger role in the world oil market than it has in recent years.
FLAVIN: I guess I would not be quite so optimistic, looking at the current situation. It's true that, because of our geographic location, we're importing more from other South American countries, for example. But the fact is, the Middle East dominance, in terms of total world oil supplies and in terms of the total world oil market, is continuing to grow.
And we are part of a world market. I mean, one of the things that I think is sometimes hard to understand is that, if you get a crisis in the Middle East, for example, it's the price that we will experience. And all oil prices will go up, whether you're importing oil from Venezuela, whether you're producing oil in Texas, whether it's coming from Alaska. It's all going to go to that world price.
And so I do think that there is a real vulnerability, and in fact, I think it's a greater vulnerability now than it's been for some time, unfortunately.
SNOW: A quick e-mail here I want to get in from a viewer. "Why don't we just go in and take the oil," this viewer says, "instead of being bent over the barrel all the time?" Just go in and take it, says Gil.
(LAUGHTER)
FLAVIN: That's yours, Dan.
(LAUGHTER)
YERGEN: I mean, that notion -- periodically, that frustration has appeared since 1973.
SNOW: Yes, this isn't new.
YERGEN: Yes, this isn't new. I mean, a lot of these things have a sense of a record, coming around again. But I think that, you know, it's part of other countries. You can't do it. It's their oil. It's not our oil.
SNOW: I guess we're going to take a quick break right now. And when we come back, when we come back, as Secretary of State -- I'm sorry, am I thanking the guests now?
OK. Sorry about that. I just want to make sure I don't say thank you -- I wanted to say thank you to you before we leave you.
(LAUGHTER) Daniel Yergen and also Christopher Flavin of Worldwatch, thank you so much for both of you.
Your piece, the last part of your documentary Wednesday night this week, we'll watch for that.
YERGEN: Wednesday night, PBS.
SNOW: Thank you so much. Sorry for that.
As Secretary of State Colin Powell tries to maintain a U.S. balancing act in the Mideast, we'll get some special insight from two guests on the two men at the center of the crisis, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Chairman Yasser Arafat.
CNN's SATURDAY EDITION will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SNOW: Mideast violence fired up political cartoonists this week.
Dick Loker (ph) of the Chicago Tribune shows President Bush behind the wheel. In his mirror, a view of the Mideast entanglement and the warning, "Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear."
Dick Wright (ph) of the Columbus Ohio Dispatch shows Middle East casualties. Two coffins are side by side, one draped with the Israeli flag, one with the Palestinian flag. Beside them lies a toppled pump labeled "low gas prices."
Michael Ramirez (ph) of the Los Angeles Times shows the Mideast in flames with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein pouring oil on the fire.
Bob Garrel (ph) of Creators Syndicate shows two children in a smoking landscape. Says one, "Let's play Arabs and Israelis. The game goes on with nobody ever winning."
The game, of course, is not between two little boys but between two grown men, two leaders, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.
Joining us to now talk about what makes each of them tick and whether compromise is even part of their vocabulary are two guests: In New York is John Wallach. He has spoken with Yasser Arafat more than 100 times, is co-author of the book, "Arafat in the Eyes of the Beholder." Mr. Wallach is also the founder and president of the organization Seeds of Peace. In Chicago is Tim McNulty. He is the associate managing editor of foreign news for the Chicago Tribune and has interviewed Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
John Wallach, Arafat and the Palestinian organization today released a statement, although we're not clear on whether it's actually from Mr. Arafat in his own words, condemning violence against both Palestinian and Israeli civilians.
Do you think he could have written that statement? Do you think he's directing all of this?
JOHN WALLACH, AUTHOR, "ARAFAT IN THE EYES OF THE BEHOLDER": Well, I'm not sure that he's ever directed any of it. I mean, he's certainly -- the fact that it was issued in his name is significant. It's enough, probably, to get a Powell meeting set up for tomorrow.
But I think the issue is a different one. The issue is, what is he going to do to implement any words?
Let me just quote, if I can, Kate, a statement that he made on December 16 in a speech in Arabic to the Arab people. He said, "We would like to reiterate again here today that all sorts of armed activities should be stopped, and there should be no more attacks, especially the suicide and bombing attacks that we have always condemned. And we will arrest all those who plan these attacks."
Well, that's what's missing. That was December 16. It's now -- January, February, March, April -- four months later.
And I think if Powell has a message, it will be that you've got to implement your words, you've got to act now, or it will be too late. I really do believe that this is Arafat's last opportunity.
SNOW: What do you think it is that makes Chairman Arafat tick? I mean, tell us a little bit about his personality. You've met him so many times.
WALLACH: Well, you know, he's a strange fellow. He's authoritarian, imperial. I remember when my wife and I wrote the book some years ago, "Arafat in the Eyes of the Beholder," when an interview was over, he would literally stare straight ahead. He wouldn't look at you, as if you were not in the room anymore, and that was your signal to leave after spending three or four hours with him.
I remember the very first time that we saw him, back in 1988, '89, when we began the series of interviews with him. He was watching a Tom and Jerry cartoon, and he was transfixed on the cartoon. We didn't dare interrupt him. Now, that cartoon says a lot, because it's Jerry, the mouse, that is always outwitting Tom, the tomcat, and always surviving.
And I think until today, Kate, it's been victory for Arafat, as occurred in his own mind (UNINTELLIGIBLE) in Beirut in 1982, simply to survive, simply to survive against such overwhelming odds, be it the United States, be it Ariel Sharon. But now the situation has changed. He has to do more than survive if he's going to regain any of the credibility and legitimacy that he's had in the past.
SNOW: Tim McNulty, the other side. Take us into the mind of Ariel Sharon. What's the thumbnail sketch of his personality?
TIM MCNULTY, "THE CHICAGO TRIBUNE": Well, I think you have to go back to '82, as well, with Sharon and Lebanon and what he did. You have to remember that he's, whatever politician he has become, he is at heart a military man. He's the one who sees objectives and missions, and he goes after it, and then goes after it perhaps even beyond -- in '82, the case, beyond what the cabinet wanted him to do.
I think one thing you have to remember about him too, also, is that he means what he says, he says what he means. When he sees Arafat as an enemy, he means that. When he says he's not going to negotiate with Arafat, I think he means that, as well.
When he says that he doesn't want to reoccupy the West Bank, I think that's what he's saying because he knows that that is not a viable -- but at the same time, what he's not saying is that he's going to subdue the West Bank.
WALLACH: Well, I think...
SNOW: Let me...
WALLACH: Tim, the problem here is that, while he's said he's not willing to reoccupy the West Bank, he has not laid out a vision for a Palestinian state or the end of occupation. That, I think, is the biggest problem that Colin Powell has on this peace mission.
WALLACH: Unless he can persuade the bulk of the Palestinian people, the majority of the Palestinian middle class, that there is hope, that there is some plan for a Palestinian state, for the dismantlement of the settlements, for the sharing of Jerusalem, there is no reason to believe that this terror is going to stop.
(CROSSTALK)
SNOW: Gentlemen, can I interrupt you for just a second. We have a little bit of developing news. I just want to get this on the air.
CNN's Andrea Koppel, who is over in Jerusalem, reporting back from a senior administration official that an announcement is going to come within the hour of a meeting, as we expected, a meeting between Colin Powell and Yasser Arafat to take place tomorrow, on Sunday.
So I just wanted to get that in there. CNN's Andrea Koppel saying a senior administration official says an announcement within the hour that Powell will go ahead and have that meeting with Yasser Arafat tomorrow, after having postponed that meeting today.
Sorry to interrupt our two guests. John Wallach, I will go back to you now. You were just about to interject.
WALLACH: Yes, I just want to say that the issue here for Colin Powell is he could spend -- he could eat up a whole week just negotiating the terms of an Israeli withdrawal from the current reoccupation and Arafat's accession to a cease-fire.
That will take us back really to where we were before the Israelis went in. But it won't take us very far, because you have a situation, as Tim pointed out, in which these two men -- it's inconceivable that they would ever meet with each other, that they would ever negotiate with each other.
So Colin Powell has two options. One is either to get deputies to both of them together to begin some real political negotiations over the future of the territories, or to put some kind of American peace proposal. And he can't simply negotiate a cease-fire and go home and call it victory. He's got to be willing to stay in the area.
MCNULTY: Yes, I think...
SNOW: We're going to talk more -- let's talk more about the two leaders in just a moment. We've got to take a quick break here. If you'll stay with us, John Wallach and Tim McNulty. We'll take your questions also, when CNN's SATURDAY EDITION returns.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SAEB ERAKAT, PALESTINIAN CABINET MINISTER: Sharon's incursions and attacks and aggression against Palestinians is aimed at killing Palestinians and not providing Israelis with security. This is a war of aggression against Palestinians. All of our towns and villages and refugee camps are under siege, under (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SNOW: Palestinian cabinet minister Saeb Erakat speaking earlier, making it clear where he thinks the responsibility for this Middle East crisis lies.
We continue to monitor some breaking news. CNN's Andrea Koppel reporting now that a senior administration official says that soon they will make an official announcement that Colin Powell, Secretary Powell, will sit down and meet tomorrow, on Sunday, with Yasser Arafat. That meeting had been postponed from today.
The Palestinians put out a statement earlier today condemning violence. Now this word from a senior administration official that that meeting tomorrow will go forward.
We will check in with Andrea Koppel just as soon as we can.
For now, we are going to continue our conversation with John Wallach, the author of a book about Yasser Arafat, and the Chicago's Tribune's Tim McNulty, who has covered Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Tim, they are both very brisk people, very stubborn people, as I understand. Your colleague there a few minutes ago, Mr. Wallach, said they can't possibly sit down together. Do you think that's true, that they're just too stubborn to sit down together?
MCNULTY: Well, I think Sharon has no intention of ever sitting down with Arafat. He certainly, as John pointed out once, he has met with him only one time. He has never shaken his hand.
I think the other thing we have to kind of recall is not be blinded by whether there is going to be a meeting or not a meeting, because Powell met with Sharon yesterday and nothing came of that. Whether he meets with Arafat tomorrow and anything comes of that is yet to be seen. I think we have to look at what people actually do.
Sharon is the man who has, with the settlements, always been concerned about facts on the ground. And I think that is what is doing at the moment. He is creating the facts on the ground in the West Bank. Whether it is occupying or not is maybe a semantic to what he is doing, what Palestinian Authority is left to govern in the West Bank and Gaza. I think he is much more concerned, as a military person, to setting out the lay of the land, the geography and the landscape for the next coming years.
SNOW: And for him, any kind of retreat is like a military retreat. I mean, it will -- well, it is a military retreat. But, I mean, for him, as a military man, I suppose any kind of retreat is seen as a real downfall.
MCNULTY: I think he repositions himself. And he is also -- he's been around for all of Israel's wars. He reflects the military history of Israel, both the triumphs and the failures of it.
And he's also been around for a great number of American presidents, so he knows what they want to hear. And at times he will say things that he believes the U.S. wants to hear, but he also has his own mind. And I don't think he's ever deterred by the concern or a new president.
SNOW: John Wallach...
WALLACH: That's...
SNOW: Go ahead.
WALLACH: Well, I was going to say I think that's the real tragedy here that you have -- history has thrown up these two individuals who detest each other, who are both very popular within their own constituencies, who will probably never agree to meet to negotiate.
And yet, if one thinks about it, to go down in history as peacemakers -- and I'm convinced that both of these people would like to go down in history as peacemaker -- they need each other. This is the great irony. They will not go down in history, either one of them, without negotiating with the other.
SNOW: Both of them have rising popularity right now. Both, within their respective camps, are enjoying soaring popularity levels. Do you think the people will continue to support them if they don't agree to do something soon?
MCNULTY: As long as there is going to be -- if there are suicide bombings in Israel. And Bibi Netanyahu is on the -- if there is a right of Sharon, he is filling that position and pressing for even more. He wanted -- he was in Washington and wants Israel to exile Arafat to some other country.
And so, I think there is, right now -- Sharon's position is absolutely most popular with the Israelis and will continue to be. WALLACH: I think the problem on the Palestinians side, Kate, is that this is no alternative for the large majority of Palestinian people to the violence and terror that is being practices by Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al-Aqsa Brigades.
What Colin Powell has got to start is a process. Remember that term "peace process"? Everybody has forgotten. There has got to be a process that gives hope to the majority of Palestinian people. Otherwise, they will support these bombers. They don't consider them terrorists. Hamas has a different reputation within the Palestinian Authority, and indeed, the very existence of the Al-Aqsa Brigades as a part of Fatah, Arafat's own organization, is a sign of how popular Hamas and Islamic Jihad have become, that Arafat had to launch his own military wing, if you will, in order to compete with them.
SNOW: John Wallach...
MCNULTY: I suspect...
SNOW: I'm sorry, John Wallach, Tim McNulty, I'm going to have to stop it there. I'm sorry. We're running out time, and we want to get to the White House. I'm sorry. Thank you to our two guests.
We want to get to the White House and Kelly Wallace, who has some more information about the developing story, about the meeting tomorrow with Colin Powell and Yasser Arafat -- Kelly.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, hello to you, Kate. I can tell you, no White House confirmation just yet that Secretary of State Colin Powell will in fact meet on Sunday with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, but the word from our State Department colleagues Andrea Koppel and Elise Labuch (ph) that we should expect the statement within the hour, that yes, in fact, the secretary will meet with Mr. Arafat on Sunday.
Clearly, Secretary Powell, President Bush put a forward a key demand. They wanted the Palestinian leader to come out and condemn Friday's suicide bombing and denounce terrorism. U.S. officials, Kate, throughout the morning have been looking carefully, in the words of one top aide, at this statement. The statement was in Arabic, which U.S. officials definitely wanted. It was widely distributed to reporters to have maximum circulation. Another thing that U.S. officials found very, very interesting -- they were looking to see exactly what was said.
Again, I can tell you, no independent White House confirmation. President Bush at Camp David met this morning with his National Security Council team, but I can also tell you that U.S. officials have said that really ultimately the decision whether to meet with the Palestinian leader really rests with Secretary Powell, that Mr. Bush has given the secretary, quote, "maximum flexibility," so it is his decision to make. In the words from our State Department colleague, it looks like that meeting will happen, Kate, on Sunday.
SNOW: So it looks like it would have been Powell's reading of that statement that really mattered here, Kelly, more so than what Washington officials back here in Washington thought?
WALLACE: Certainly, Kate, as you know, U.S. officials here in Washington definitely weighing in. The State Department colleagues traveling with the secretary weighing in. All definitely weighing in to read that statement.
The key, though, really ultimately was going to be Powell's call. If Powell felt that these demands were met and if he felt that such a meeting would go forward, it was really his call. He is on the ground meeting with the parties, U.S. officials say, so it's ultimately his call to decide whether to meet with the Palestinian leader -- Kate.
SNOW: And we don't have any idea when this meeting would happen or what kind of circumstances it would be, but can we assume that it would be like what was going to happen today, where Powell would to go the compound to meet with Arafat?
WALLACE: We certainly can, but again, you know, we're speculating. Clearly, we look like it could be Sunday morning, and looks like it would be in Ramallah, but again, we just don't know that yet -- Kate.
SNOW: OK, Kelly Wallace at the White House.
We are going to -- are we taking a quick break? OK, no break. I'm sorry. No break.
We're going to take a quick turn here to a segment that we call "My Turn," which is our sort of capping moment on this show when I reflect back a little bit on the week.
I spent this week away from Mideast politics in Cleveland, Ohio, covering a story of a very different breed. Jim Traficant, the flamboyant congressman with the wild hair and the leisure suits, didn't disappoint.
After he was convicted on all 10 counts of bribery, racketeering and tax fraud, the congressman declared he would not resign. In fact, he had choice words for Democrat Leader Dick Gephardt, who had called for his resignation.
And get this: House rules don't actually ban him from voting now in Congress. Convicted criminals are told they, quote, "should refrain" from voting, but there's no outright ban.
So Traficant could be back on the House floor next week. If that happens, just one member could get mad enough to beam him up for good, expel him from Congress. And that's one House debate you don't want to miss.
And that wraps up our SATURDAY EDITION show. Thanks for watching. I'm Kate Snow in Washington.
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