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On the Story
What Will Bush Do With His Political Capital?
Aired November 06, 2004 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BETTY NGUYEN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, good morning to you. I'm Betty Nguyen at the CNN Center here in Atlanta, checking today's headlines.
In Iraq, extreme violence and a heavy toll today in Samarra. At least 34 people were killed and dozens wounded this morning in a series of car bomb explosions and mortar attacks in the city north of Baghdad.
Explosions and gunfire also this morning in Fallujahh. U.S. warplanes are again pounding targets in and around the rebel-held Iraqi city. Meantime, U.S. tanks have been in action in northeastern Fallujahh. The attacks are laying the groundwork for what is expected to be a major offensive by U.S. and Iraqi forces.
Also in Iraq, 20 U.S. Marines have been wounded in an attack on their convoy. It happened near the town of Ramadi, which is west of Baghdad. The area has been an insurgent stronghold.
In France, supporters of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat held a vigil outside the hospital where he lay in a coma. U.S. officials say Arafat is on life support and negotiations are under way to arrange for his burial. Senior Palestinian sources insist Arafat is in stable condition and not in any immediate danger.
Those are the headlines "Now in the News." I'm Betty Nguyen at CNN Center here in Atlanta. ON THE STORY starts right now.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to CNN's ON THE STORY, where our journalists have the inside words on the stories we covered this week. I'm Candy Crowley, ON THE STORY of the election. What made the difference in the campaign, and who gets praise and who gets blame?
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I'm Dana Bash, ON THE STORY of how President Bush will spend his new political capital and try to fulfill promises he made on the campaign trail.
KATHLEEN HAYS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And I'm Kathleen Hays, ON THE STORY of that Bush rally on Wall Street and the Bush plan for Social Security.
Later in the hour, Fionnuala Sweeney is ON THE STORY of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, hospitalized in Paris. Also coming up, we'll go to Iraq, where Jane Arraf is with U.S. troops massing around the insurgent holdout of Fallujahh. And Rusty Dornin is ON THE STORY of the Scott Peterson murder trial as the jury deliberates his fate.
E-mail us at ONTHESTORY@CNN.COM.
Now straight to Dana Bash and the election victory.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: America has spoken. And I'm humbled by the trust and the confidence of my fellow citizens. With that trust comes a duty to serve all Americans. And I will do my best to fulfill that duty every day as your president.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: President Bush Wednesday afternoon formally claiming his reelection victory after what he called a long night and a great night. And the president said his new term is a new opportunity to reach out to the whole nation, even the 55 million Americans who voted against him.
CROWLEY: Well, back to that long night, great night, it began in the day. I felt like you and I were living in these parallel universes.
BASH: Absolutely.
CROWLEY: Just the mere -- everything was so up in the Kerry campaign that day. Take me back to the Bush campaign.
BASH: Everything was so up in the Kerry campaign, and in the Bush campaign, I wouldn't say it was outright panic, but I would say a lot of concern. Because what they were looking at, these exit poll numbers, which we all get, which were posted on the Internet, which we don't report because we don't want to do anything to turnout, but we all see them. And they showed Kerry doing remarkably well in all of the key states.
And you had the Bush -- the president's top strategists essentially laying out what they described a little bit later all of their data on the table, trying to figure out, wait a minute, where did we go wrong, what's happening? And then they started to look at some of the -- of the -- of the numbers, and said that it showed that like 58 percent of the electorate were women, which would have shown a tremendous shift in the electorate.
So then they started thinking, well, you know what, maybe it's not going to go as well for Kerry. But still, they understood that the Kerry people were essentially elated, and they were very, very concerned.
But then it definitely started to shift a little bit as the -- as the returns came in. But there was definitely, I would say, Candy, like a three to four-hour window on Election Day where they didn't breathe. They were holding their breath.
HAYS: Well, and because of the exit polls, many people in the news business and, therefore, people outside the news business who know people in the news business were convinced that John Kerry, President Kerry was all set to starting to lining up his cabinet. At what point in the evening did President Bush's team say, oh, my gosh, it really has turned in their favor?
I went to bed a little after midnight, kept waking up all night. And finally at 5:00, "I've got to get up and see what's happening." And there it was, 254-252, not yet a done deal.
BASH: Well, it really did affect the dynamic of the day. But definitely it was when they started to get the real returns, right?
I mean, don't you think, Candy, the real returns, when they started to come in, exit polls showing that President Bush was not doing that well in South Carolina, a place where he should have and ended up having -- had a blowout. Then they started realizing, wait a minute...
CROWLEY: Virginia.
BASH: ... these numbers, Virginia, South Carolina, these numbers are not -- are not that right. Then the dynamic completely changed.
I was over at Bush-Cheney headquarters, and then suddenly all of the senior strategists and the top officials started coming down and talking to us and tried to explain where they thought the state of play was, trying to sort of spin us a little bit more, at that point, when they had actually tried to figured out what was going on.
But it was essentially at the point where they really thought that they won Ohio, which was the final, that they sent us over to the Reagan headquarters where -- the Reagan Building, where the president was going to come out for this victory speech. And we got there and nobody showed up.
We were waiting, we were waiting at 4:00 in the morning, 5:00 in the morning. Where is everybody? Well, they decided that they were going to -- that they were going to wait for Kerry to actually concede because there were all these questions about the provisional ballots.
But it certainly made for a long night. And they weren't actually sure, even until that morning, even until Wednesday morning, whether the president was just going to come out and say, you know, "Look, I declare victory," or wait until Kerry conceded.
CROWLEY: Spinning forward, you know I look at this and I think there is nothing freer than a politician who doesn't have to run again for office.
BASH: Absolutely.
CROWLEY: It is maybe when they can most do and be who they really are, not having to worry about constituencies. Where do you see this? Is this -- is this an administration that's going to go right, middle, a little bit -- I mean, how do you see them moving? BASH: You know, it is really unclear. Basically, what -- if you listen to what the president said in his news conference, I mean, he just said it: "I've got political capital and I intend to spend it." But what his focus was not -- at the news conference and also a the victory speech on two big domestic issues, agenda items, which you certainly know a lot about, Social Security reform and tax reform.
And these are the issues that he is definitely going to try to push for. And they're going to take a lot of political capital. And it's going to be very hard.
It's sort of going to be interesting to see how he reconciles these two ideas of reaching across the aisle to Democrats and spending political capital on issues that Democrats hate; philosophically, fundamentally oppose. But look, I mean, if you look at the results, he got -- he did get tremendous turnout and tremendous support among people that are somewhat unlikely, perhaps, people who are lower to middle income that you would maybe possibly think traditionally would vote Democrat.
He got a lot of the people that he was really reaching out to on the moral issues. And it's going to be interesting to see whether or not he does reach for and push some of the social issues that he talked so much about, Candy, during the campaign when he went to these areas, the rural areas. He really played it up. It's going to be interesting to see whether or not he pushes that legislatively.
HAYS: And I think that's why a lot of Kerry supporters are concerned. I think it was very interesting in that news conference when the president went out of his way to say, you know, separation of church and state. Because there has been so much discussion about how he talks about religion, uses it in his office.
But he said, you know, you don't have to be any religion to be an American. And yet, I think many people who did not vote for President Bush are wondering how much focus will be -- he talked -- I was surprised how much he's going to commit his political capital to Social Security reform.
BASH: Yes.
HAYS: This is a tough deal, a tough road to hoe. But how much do you think on the legislative side he's going to get bogged down? Does it really mean that much to President Bush, I guess is what I'm asking, or is this just part of his campaign ploy on the social issues?
BASH: On the social issues. Well, I think that the other thing about the moral or social issues that's interesting to point out is that it is not just about necessarily gay marriage or about abortion.
It is also -- when he talks about moral issues, it is also about character. And that's what he really tried to push at the end of the campaign.
It's, "I'm the guy you know, I'm the guy you trust and I'm the guy you want." So the moral issues and the moral sort of section that people talked about, yes, they voted on, could perhaps be -- and we don't have any -- necessarily evidence to this -- the fact that they just essentially relate to the president and what he believes in because they maybe knew him and understood him better than they understood John Kerry.
CROWLEY: Yes. You know, one of the things that's going to be interesting, I think, is to see where he does spend that capital. But I thought in his acceptance speech, or whatever we call it, the victory speech, when he spoke directly, he said, "I want to talk to the 54 million people that voted for John Kerry. I want to be president of all of you. I'm going to work very hard to earn your trust."
Because the key thing, obviously, on the Democratic side is you can't trust this guy, he's lying to you.
BASH: Right.
CROWLEY: I mean, that sort of thing. And it's hard to see how he's going to do that balance between the two issues, say -- I wanted to ask you if you look back on this campaign and see any one point that capsulizes the campaign or that you think it turned here, or this was a moment in retrospect that was big?
BASH: That's an interesting question. You know, maybe this is too easy, but probably after the third debate.
I mean, they were all -- the Bush campaign, as you would expect they should be, they were very upset and very nervous after the first debate, even the second debate. After the third debate, you saw the sigh of relief, you heard the sigh of relief, and you sort of -- you know, you got the sense from them, OK, we're back in the game, we feel good, we feel much better. You definitely got the sense that that was sort of turning back to where they thought that they were before, and after the stinging after -- after the debates was sort of over.
CROWLEY: Well, as the Republicans celebrate victory, the Democrats are figuring out their failure and their future. I'm back on that story after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It was a privilege and a gift to spend two years traveling this country, coming to know so many ever you. I wish that I could just wrap you up in my arms and embrace each and every one of you individually all across this nation. I thank you from the bottom of my heart.
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CROWLEY: John Kerry conceding defeat Wednesday where it began, in Boston, when he said all they had was hope and a vision. On Wednesday, he urged his supports to keep up the fight.
BASH: So Candy, we talked just now about how confident the Kerry campaign was, even up to the day of the election. Now that they didn't win, what are they saying they think was their biggest mistake?
CROWLEY: You know, it depends on which Democrat you talk to, OK? I mean, this is a party that's going to have a lot -- I have people that I've talked to since then that said, you know, he was too liberal, it was liberal Massachusetts. People didn't trust him, the "L" word stuck.
I've had people saying, you know, he wasn't liberal enough. He wasn't Howard Dean. He should have, you know, gone after all of these things.
From the beginning he had a huge problem, and that was he voted for the war when his party was against the war. And then he voted against the $87 billion that we now have to -- you know, that he's had to explain through the entire thing.
But in the end, what does it get down to? It gets down to message and messenger. All messengers are flawed. This one had a particularly high benchmark.
He had to convince the public to throw out a commander in chief in a time of war. And they always said that was a high bar.
They feel that he met the criteria of "I can be commander in chief." But, you know, when people go into that voting booth -- and Democrats will tell you this, Republicans will tell you this -- there is an -- there is an X factor there that's just your gut, who do I trust? And the Bush campaign did a very good job of undermining that.
HAYS: Well, there's so many issues here. One that comes to mind, though, is that -- let's be honest, that throughout this campaign, a lot of what drove the Democrats was, let's get Bush out of office. So many people adamantly against the president, really against the war.
So it seemed like they were looking -- the Democrats were somebody who could beat Bush. And that was part of the problem, that they never found a candidate or a message or a vision that clearly defined where they were going, except we're going to get rid of Bush.
CROWLEY: Absolutely. The message was not Bush.
HAYS: Yes.
CROWLEY: And that, in the end, can't sustain -- and they tried to do that. They tried so many -- I cannot tell you how many times we would start off a week and we would get a weekly briefing of someone saying, "OK, we're going to turn the corner now. We're going to talk about the economy and health care. Because in those red states, that's what they really care about, jobs."
And then we'd spend the entire week talking about Iraq. BASH: And every time they did that, the Bush campaign went, "Yahoo."
CROWLEY: Exactly.
BASH: That was their message.
CROWLEY: Exactly. So it was very tough because it was just the elephant in the living room. It was very hard, you know, to ignore Iraq.
HAYS: But the other thing that gets me is that I think many pundits, many writers and commentators say, well, how could -- how could, you know, middle class Americans and low income Americans vote against their own interests and vote for George Bush? I think that people maybe don't understand that there are many people of modest means who either don't vote their pocket book or maybe feel they share President Bush's vision of the economy, the ownership society, you know, you can invest, you can start your own business.
CROWLEY: A boot strap sort of...
HAYS: Exactly.
CROWLEY: And absolutely. And I think they tried very hard with John Edwards to reach out to rural voters. It clearly didn't work.
But I think, also, that there just is something that voters liked about George Bush and things that voters didn't like about John Kerry. And the Bush campaign was very good at exploiting those.
And, you know, John Kerry is not an unlikable guy. I mean, you know him. He's not at all.
It's just that he -- there is a reserve about him that never reached out and said, OK, we all know why you should vote against George Bush, and here's why you should vote for me. He never could quite -- I mean, I thought that last "I wish I could reach out and hold you all in my arms," it was such an unKerryesque sort of sentiment that was said with great emotion. You know?
BASH: Candy, one thing that is just fascinating is what we call the ground war, the ground game, the get-out-the-vote operation at the end. And Karl Rove and the Bush campaign said from day one of this term that they were not going to get beaten like they were four years ago by the Democrats.
And they had this unbelievable operation. They had the 1.4 million volunteers, three times as many as last time.
Did the Democrats just get caught flat-footed? What happened?
CROWLEY: What's interesting is I don't think that the Republicans talked about it nearly so much as the Democrats.
BASH: They were stealth. CROWLEY: It was like the whole stealth operation going on. And what we heard daily, in e-mails, on the phone, you know, MoveOn.org, about ACT, Americans Coming Together, there were any number of people out there -- a lot of things -- and Republicans will tell you this and Democrats are beginning to wonder -- some of those organizations were set up and they had paid people that went to Ohio, that went to West Virginia and -- to register voters.
The Bush campaign was entirely voluntary. Well, passion says a lot in politics. And so, you know, it's interesting that despite the fact that Democrats outspent the Republicans on the ground war, the ground war still came in for the Republicans.
So you have to again look at -- and back to an original thing, sometimes I wondered, were they overdoing the anti-Bush -- where they overdoing the anti-Bush rhetoric? Were they overdoing it, you know, with -- there was a famous fundraiser in New York that the Bush team glommed on to for Kerry, where they said some really perfectly awful things about George Bush. They were off color, they were pretty -- you know, he's a thug, he's a murder, that kind of thing.
There was a lot of that kind of rhetoric out there. People don't want to believe that about their president. And I wonder insofar -- it wasn't what John Kerry said. But these were people affiliated with him.
BASH: And it played right into the values thing.
HAYS: Right.
BASH: It played right into the values thing for the president.
CROWLEY: Yes.
HAYS: Well, and speaking of people affiliated with him, Hollywood stars, rock stars affiliated with him, Teresa Heinz Kerry affiliated with him, a very wealthy woman with kind of an enigmatic personality for many people, the gay rights marriage thing stuck to John Kerry, despite the fact he had almost an identical position to President Bush.
CROWLEY: Absolutely. I mean, he was -- he was against the constitutional amendment, saying we don't need to mess with the Constitution about this. But he always -- John Kerry always said I'm against gay marriage, I'm for civil rights.
BASH: Civil unions.
CROWLEY: I guess civil rights is the wrong -- civil unions, all right. And the reason I mix that up is that I remember early on we were down South in a black forum. I think it was a church. It was a Sunday.
And an African-American woman stood up and said, you know, "I really -- I want to support you. I really like you. I like what you stand for. But stop equating gay rights with civil rights, because it is not the same thing. That's an insult to me."
BASH: Wow.
CROWLEY: And then she said, you know, "The bible says..." and this and that. And it was a little one of those canaries, you know, that sent him to the cave.
I talked to black Republicans, particularly the secretary of state in Ohio, who said, "I think that they are underestimating the values issue in African-American communities."
BASH: And it wasn't an accident, I don't think, that there were, what, 11 ballot issues in the states...
CROWLEY: Right, in Ohio.
BASH: ... on the American -- I mean, it was really out there. It was out there, and it was an issue that voters were really focused on. And people just did not support John Kerry's position on it.
CROWLEY: Even though it was the same...
BASH: Even though it was the same position.
CROWLEY: It was -- and I think that then it gets back to exactly what you're saying. Was it gay marriage? Was it abortion? Was it all of these wedge issues?
Or was it, "Here's the guy I trust. I know what he's saying. You know, I know where he stands?" And they weren't always quite sure of where John Kerry stood.
BASH: Well, Candy, we're going to have a lot more talk about this later. And, of course, in the next four years, as we talk about '08, because, of course, it is never too early for that, but now we're going to talk about the war in Iraq, which, of course, never paused for the campaign here at home. And U.S. forces have been preparing for a possible major assault around Fallujahh.
Our Jane Arraf is right there ON THE STORY, and we'll talk to her right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: There's a recognition that these -- some of these people must be defeated. And so that's what they're thinking about. That's why you're hearing discussions about potential action in Fallujahh.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF: That was President George Bush talking about what is expected to be the decisive battle since the end of major combat.
Welcome back to ON THE STORY. I'm Jane Arraf, near Fallujah.
HAYS: And Jane, we know you can't tell us where you are, who you're with, what plans may lie ahead that you know about. But it's clear this battle in Fallujahh is -- is imminent. And are -- is there a feeling among the troops that this is just the first of a new tougher wave to come with a reelected George Bush, who now feels he has a mandate from the people?
ARRAF: That's a really interesting thought. It's been brewing for a long time.
Now, certainly, there was the feeling that if he lost, then that could change things. But really, what this is seen as is the culmination of weeks, months of negotiations, of efforts, of attempts to allow Iraqis to handle things in Fallujahh. And a realization, it seems, among the military and some Iraqi political leaders that the only way to do this is really to go down to ground and battle these insurgents in Fallujahh.
And it promises to be absolutely dreadful. This is -- there are no illusions here that this not going to be long, drawn out and potentially, very, very bloody.
CROWLEY: Jane, forgive me, but it seems to me that we've always been preparing for the battle of Fallujah. What gives us the sense that it's happening now? I feel like we've had this conversation with you for a while.
ARRAF: You're absolutely right. It's the same with a lot of things in Iraq. It sort of seems we've done that before.
But this one, the difference is -- one of the differences is, we're here. And a lot of journalists are here. And there are an awful lot of soldiers here at this undisclosed location near Fallujah.
There are, in fact -- we're told we that can say there are more than 10,000 of them. So that certainly sends a signal.
And there really is a feeling that it is rolling towards the deadline of Iraqi elections. If they don't get Fallujah settled, they will never be able to hold elections, the American force can never leave. And it will set in force a chain of events that will be very, very hard to recover from.
It is hard to get across exactly how much is riding on this. It is immense, the stakes here.
BASH: Jane, talk a little bit more about that, about the impact that this battle of Fallujah would have and could have on the elections that are scheduled for January.
ARRAF: It's kind of precarious right now. You go out in the streets -- we've been out in Baghdad -- just before I left, I was in Baghdad talking to people in the streets about how they felt about Iraqi elections coming up, the American elections, and whether Fallujah mattered. And it does matter to them. To the Sunnis, to a lot of Sunni Muslims in Iraq, Fallujah is a symbol. And even if they welcome American forces here, they do not want to see this city destroyed. They don't want to see civilians die, which is certainly going to happen.
And it is going to be turned into a public relations campaign. We've seen that before, and we will see it even more so now. That there is a feeling here that once they go in, the Marines and the Army and everyone supporting them, once they go in, they're not going to leave until this is finished. And that really bodes dire consequences for Iraqis in this area and for the ripple effect of how Iraqis outside Fallujah will feel about this.
HAYS: Well, you know, so many Iraqis already fleeing. Who are the people who can't leave? Is there nowhere to go? Is it impossible to get out of the city now?
And what about the troops who can't just sit back and, you know, fire big bombs at destinations miles away? Soldiers are going to go into the city with their weapons, house to house. This is real honest to goodness combat.
ARRAF: It sure is. And I've been trying to figure out exactly how many civilians there are still there.
We've heard various estimates from 30,000 to 90,000. And 90,000 would be close to a third of the population of Fallujah.
Now, a lot of people have left. This has been coming for a long time, as we've said. And the prime minister here has warned that the window of opportunity is closing, that, essentially, they are heading towards an attack, if these people don't give up the insurgents.
But there will inevitably be a lot of people who can't leave. They're too poor. They don't have the means to leave. They're sick perhaps.
And there will be people, a certain amount, according to U.S. forces, who are being kept there against their will. And there will be people -- there are people we know who believe this is the last stand.
They may be insurgents. They may consider themselves nationalists. But they believe Fallujah is the last stand against the American forces, and they are going to stay no matter what.
HAYS: Jane, thanks so much for this. But before we let you go, what are you look for ON THE STORY in coming days?
ARRAF: Well, it's going to be interesting to see what unfolds close to here in Fallujah, as well as those Iraqi elections. Absolutely fascinating.
Again, this week we were out talking to people. They are beginning to register for elections, Iraqis. Extraordinary. So those two things, what happens with Iraq and its elections, and what happens in Fallujah? Both of them interlinked.
HAYS: Well, Jane, it's great to see you -- see you in such great spirits. We hope you stay safe. And we'll look forward to seeing you again soon ON THE STORY.
ARRAF: Thanks, everybody.
HAYS: From Iraq, to the economy, the stock market celebrated the Bush victory with a big rally. I'm back on that story in a moment.
Also, we're -- coming up, we're going to Paris, where CNN's Fionnuala Sweeney is ON THE STORY of Yasser Arafat's condition. And Rusty Dornin is ON THE STORY of the final chapter in the Scott Peterson murder trial.
All coming up, plus a check on what's making news at this hour.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
Call of that coming up.
NGUYEN: Well, good morning. I'm Betty Nguyen.
It is another violent day in Iraq. Twenty U.S. Marines were wounded when their convoy was attacked in Al Anbar Province, which is near Ramadi.
At Samarra, which is north of Baghdad, car bomb explosions and mortar attacks killed 34 Iraqis and wounded dozens. Iraqi police officers are among the victims.
Terrorism and togetherness are among President Bush's topics in today's recorded radio address.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
BUSH: Now the election is behind us, and our country is ready to move forward, our nation is fighting and continuing the war on terror, and every American has a stake in the outcome. Republicans, Democrats and Independents love our country. And together, we will protect the American people. We will persevere until the enemy is defeated and our nation is safe from danger.
Every civilized country also has a stake in the outcome of this war. Whatever our past disagreements, we share a common enemy and common duties to confront disease and hunger and poverty in troubled regions of our world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
NGUYEN: And the president promises to continue reaching out to friends and allies.
Right about now some high-flying adventurers are picking up the X Prize in St. Louis. Burt Rutan's Mojave Aerospace Ventures will get a check for $10 million. Not a bad way to start your Saturday.
The company's rocket plane won the prize for breaking through the Earth's atmosphere twice in two weeks. SpaceShipOne flew into space over the California desert on September 29 and again on October 4.
Those are the headlines right now. I'm Betty Nguyen at the CNN global headquarters. Now it is back to ON THE STORY.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RICHARD CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This has been a consequential presidency which has revitalized our economy and reasserted the confident American role in the world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYS: The victorious Bush-Cheney team was handed new evidence on a revitalized economy at the end of the week. A surge in new jobs last month up 337,000. Way above what was expected.
Welcome back. We're ON THE STORY.
BASH: Kathleen, I have to say, I just laughed. When I saw that number on Friday morning, I just laughed. After how many months of the Bush campaign and the White House promising this was going to happen, it actually happened.
HAYS: And, you know, it wasn't just that overall number. It was also the fact that, you know, the government is constantly fine-tuning these numbers. It's a huge economy, and, you know, the numbers come in, in bits and pieces sometimes.
But if you look at the revisions in August and September, there were 100,000 more jobs out of that than people thought. So people look at it, it looks great.
There was -- some of the jobs are construction, you know, the rebuilding in Florida, 71,000 construction jobs. But, you know, the services industry, where most people are employed, if you think of education and health care and professional services and managers, there was a very strong gain.
There, look, you can see it -- 272,000. That's the kind of number you see when things are really good.
And, of course, the worrisome part is the one at the bottom. Manufacturing down 5,000 jobs. There still seems to be, even though the manufacturing sector is improving, no jobs there.
But good news for the Bush administration. If you get more numbers like this, it's like, yes, it really does vindicate, I would think, their policies to a certain extent. But you have to see more.
BASH: And he's not the first president now since Herbert Hoover to lose jobs, right?
HAYS: Very close.
(CROSSTALK)
HAYS: Well, let me -- yes, because I did the math yesterday. If you go from January 2001 to October 2004, he is still down 371,000 jobs. I worked through this with somebody at the Labor Department. OK?
So, over the next two months, if they can make 200,000 jobs each month, he doesn't lose jobs. But as, you know, Jerry Bernstein (ph), Economic Policy Institute, now we know this is a liberal think tank that's been hammering at all things wrong with the Bush administration.
He said, whoop-de-do. You know, beating Herbert Hoover is not exactly a very high par.
(LAUGHTER)
HAYS: And, you know, we're going to need to see more job growth. There's still one in 10, nearly one in 10 Americans who are unemployed or really can't find the kind of job they want. And I got this from Steve Hipple, Bureau of Labor and Statistics, said, "You can quote me on this."
And so, I mean, there really are a lot of people still out of work. And that's why jobs have to keep growing like this.
CROWLEY: So let me ask you about Wall Street. We all know that when something becomes certain, Wall Street likes it because they don't like uncertainty. So I'm judging we're in the wrong business.
But anyway, in general, does Wall Street think George Bush is better for business than John Kerry would have been? Are they happy, unhappy?
HAYS: There's two big parts to this, Candy. And one part is that this is the man who cut taxes, he wants to make the tax cuts permanent. And he cut taxes also on dividends and capital gains.
Business really, really like this. No doubt about it. And I think they were a little bit worried about John Kerry starting to raise some taxes, coming in with a big health care plan. And so they are very happy.
And the election uncertainty is over. And typically, you get some kind of rally in the stock market once that clears up.
But, you know, there's another big part of this. And that is the budget deficit. And Wall Street right now is not focused on that.
President Bush has been one of the biggest-spending presidents in history. His supporters say, well, yeah, but he to run for reelection, and now he can rein that back in.
The dollar this week didn't get too much attention in the mainstream press. But it weakened steadily because I think the foreign exchange traders are worried about foreign investors losing confidence in us, in investing in the United States with a budget deficit that remains bigger, gets bigger. And they're worried about the trade deficit.
BASH: And there's probably also concern about the cost of the president's plans, particularly Social Security reform. I mean, there are some estimates that -- that privatizing, even for young people, will cost, what, like $2 trillion?
HAYS: $1.5 to $2 trillion. And that estimate came from President Bush's own Social Security Commission. So it's a good, solid number.
You know, I have to say, when he gave that -- that long press conference, which someone said sounds like a State of the Union Address, almost, it's interesting to me. When he talked about spending his capital, the first thing on the list Social Security reform, tax reform, all these really hard core economic things right at the top. And he seems very, very serious about doing this.
These personal accounts, oh, boy. Supporters say that it will finally give people part of this ownership society. You know, even people of low, modest means can take some Social Security money and start investing it. The advocates also say they think it will be set up so you're confined to very conservative investments.
Now...
CROWLEY: But don't even conservative investments beat what -- the Social Security gain? I mean, isn't -- hasn't that always been -- the selling point was even if you invest conservatively...
HAYS: In government bonds, for example. And that's the question. Will -- how -- will people be given just a limited pool of choices?
Wall Street salivating, hoping it means, oh, boy, invest in all kinds of mutual funds. But the people I talked to this week from the conservative think tanks said pretty much no, that people would not be in Internet funds and that kind of a thing.
But the other question is a big picture question. It's going to cost money to do this, as you point out. Because if I am paying taxes to the government, my Social Security tax, and now I can take some of that tax and invest it, that's money that's not going into the general revenues, which is what all Social Security goes to and it gets paid out.
So how will that be made up? Will you cut the benefits for retires? They're saying no, you know?
BASH: It sounds like John Kerry.
HAYS: What will happen? And I think that's the unanswered question. And it comes full circle, again, because this president, for whatever reasons, has -- is coming into this with a big budget deficit. So where does he find the money for this reform?
CROWLEY: Ask him at the next news conference.
Not just the economy at home and war in Iraq on the White House agenda. The health of ailing Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat reminded everyone this week of dangerous uncertainties in the Middle East. We'll check in with Fionnuala Sweeney in Paris when we're back ON THE STORY.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: My first reaction is god bless his soul. And my second reaction is -- is that we will continue to work for a free Palestinian state that's at peace with Israel.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: President Bush, after being asked about reports that Yasser Arafat had died, that turned out not to be true. But his condition is still very hard to pin down, as is the impact his death might have on the Mideast.
Keeping watch in Paris outside Arafat's hospital is CNN's Fionnuala Sweeney.
And Fionnuala, the first question is, what's the latest? What is the condition of Yasser Arafat?
FIONNUALA SWEENEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the latest is pretty much the same as it has been over the past couple of days. The Palestinian authorities both in Ramallah and those in the delegation here accompanying Yasser Arafat to Paris at pains to say that is only the medical team now in the hospital here behind me that is allowed to give out any information.
The last statement we had was almost 24 hours ago, in which it was said that his condition had not changed. And that is what we're hearing today, that Yasser Arafat is still in intensive care. His position hasn't changed one way or the other. He is stable, but by all accounts remains critically ill -- Dana.
CROWLEY: Fionnuala, run me back over that again. Who is giving you this information, and how sure are you of its veracity? I know that there is a lot of political at stake in the condition of Yasser Arafat. So I'm wondering who is telling you and whether you actually believe it.
SWEENEY: Well, there's a lot of confusion at the moment, both here in Paris, and, indeed, in the West Bank, around the world about Yasser Arafat's condition. I think I should point out before I say anything further that under French rule doctors are not obligated to release any information about a particular patient.
And while the Palestinian leader is the Palestinian Authority president, he is a leader without a state. And, as such, he is a private citizen here in many ways, incapacitated in the hospital behind me.
His wife also, Suja, has a large say in what is being released to the public. And it was to that end that last night she sent out the PLO foreign minister to talk to the press to say that, as of that moment, nobody would give any information about the condition of Yasser Arafat except the hospital. He then, of course, went on to break his own embargo almost immediately by saying the president was in "good health" and it might take some time.
So the other people that we're talking to, of course, are people on the ground, people in Ramallah, people here in Paris. But nobody is saying anything on the record. And it is very hard to put together the pieces, except to say that clearly Yasser Arafat is still alive -- Dana.
HAYS: Well, Fionnuala, yesterday there were even reports that he was brain dead, that he was being kept alive by machines. Later, Palestinians said, oh, no, no, he is even conscious. Can you give us some context as to why -- let's say he is in a coma -- why people wouldn't say that? Is there some risk of the political position at stake of the various parties to be giving all this information that seems to be so contradictory at times?
SWEENEY: Well, there's a huge difference between being unconscious and being in a coma. And I think that is why some of the confusion has arisen, because one can be unconscious and not be in a coma. One can be in a coma and it might not be reversible.
Yesterday, Leila Shahid, who's the Palestinian envoy to Paris, said that Yasser Arafat was in a coma but doctors believed it was reversible. I think there is a lot of confusion here.
The Palestinian Authority president was understood to have been undergoing tests on Wednesday. Tests now -- and this is unconfirmed -- for which he might have been sedated. And that is why some Palestinian officials would say he is merely being sedated and that's why he is slipping in and out of consciousness.
So this is a huge gray area. And I think what everybody here is now being careful about, and particularly among the delegation here in Paris and those in Ramallah, is to be very careful about the kind of language that they use.
They're saying, you know, "coma" is a magical term. And so and so -- I'm not a doctor, they're not a doctor. You can't take what we're saying as being guaranteed, because there is a huge difference between being in a coma and being unconscious.
So that is part of the confusion here. And also, I'm afraid to say that when the French authorities here in the hospital behind us issued statements over the last two days, they tended to have been once a day, lasting less than one minute long. And rather than actually clarifying the situation, tend to actually, you know, give rise to even further speculation. CROWLEY: A tough assignment. Fionnuala Sweeney, thanks so much for your input.
From Paris and the Middle East, back to California and the story that kept grabbing headlines for almost two years. We're back on that story with Rusty Dornin after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JUDGE ALFRED DELUCCHI, SCOTT PETERSON TRIAL: The only time you can discuss this case is when you're back in the jury room, you're conducting your deliberations, and then only when all 12 jurors are present. Then you can discuss it until you're blue in the face.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RUSTY DORNIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That was Judge Alfred Delucchi, giving final instructions to the jury to begin their deliberations in the Scott Peterson murder trial. It is a case that's captured the country for nearly two years. The trial was five months now. The moment of judgment approaches.
Welcome back. I'm Rusty Dornin in San Francisco. We're ON THE STORY.
HAYS: Rusty, I can imagine the atmosphere in the courtroom, you know, weeks and weeks of evidence and testimony. But when you get down to this point, the tension rises. What do you see in the faces of the jurors, for example?
DORNIN: The jury all along has been very stone face, very difficult to read. Taking notes at certain times. That sort of thing.
But the time during the jury instructions, it was very somber, very dramatic. I think there were a lot of emotions running through the courtroom, apprehension, relief that this was over, that they were finally going to come to a decision.
CROWLEY: Rusty, you know, I've got to ask you about the families in the courtroom. What's been your observation of, on both sides of that, how they've held up. Have they been in there all the time?
DORNIN: They're there every single day, particularly Scott Peterson's family. Some members -- there's usually four or five people who are there.
They do have a couple members of their family, too, that can speak to the press because they're not covered by the gag order. On the other hand, Laci Peterson's family, there is no one from her family that does speak to the press after some of these court proceedings.
But they are also very somber in the courtroom. There was an incident where they did have a couple words between the two families. The judge quickly said, listen, we don't want this to happen, we don't want any problems. So they now make sure the families come through separate entrances with the bailiffs.
BASH: And Rusty, do you know exactly what the jury is asking for? They've asked to review some new evidence. Do you know what it is and whether that sort of tells you anything?
DORNIN: Well, the first full day of deliberations they asked to see some photos of the inside of Scott and Laci Peterson's house. Yesterday, the did ask -- apparently on Monday they're going to take a look at the 14-foot boat that Scott Peterson said he used to go out fishing that day.
Also, they asked for some phone records between Scott Peterson and his wife Laci. Also, taped conversations between Sharon Rocha and Scott Peterson. There was one conversation where she left a message about them finding an anchor in the bay. And you can hear Scott Peterson whistle in the background. That's about it I think they're going to be looking at on Monday.
HAYS: So, at this point, what do you think this hinges on? You know, they have to make decisions about first-degree murder versus second-degree murder, whether he's guilty at all. When you listen to these deliberations, what do you think are the two or three key things?
DORNIN: Well, I think -- you know, there's a lot of emotion going here that the prosecution has brought out in their closing arguments in terms of, look, their strongest argument is he went fishing where his wife and unborn son washed ashore. That is their strongest argument.
They say this is a man with a motive for murder because he really didn't want to be a father. Of course, they brought out the affair with Amber Frey and that sort of thing.
On the other hand, the defense is saying, look, he had no reason to kill his wife. You can hate him, but don't convict him because of that.
There was no motive for a murder, there was no murder weapon, there was no crime scene and there was no cause of death. So it's really difficult to tell.
One of the key things may be this jury foreman who was elected. And I think most of us figured it would be him.
He is a doctor and a lawyer. He went into the deliberation room with 12 notebooks underneath his arm. So he took meticulous notes. He's going to be taking them through every step of that testimony and picking it apart. And both sides are seeing that as a good thing.
CROWLEY: Well, 12 notebooks sounds like a long deliberation. Rusty, campaigns have buzz to them, they have feel to them. You know when they're up, you know when they're down. What's the buzz inside the courtroom? Does it favor one verdict or another?
DORNIN: It really doesn't. And it's funny, because of the court watchers, people have gone back and forth throughout this trial, depending on how the testimony has gone, depending on how the prosecution or defense had presented their case that day or that week.
Yesterday, it was very interesting because both sides, when they were called back into chambers -- they also apparently had some kind of a jury issue. It wasn't health related, wasn't scheduling that was resolved, but could crop up next week. It was very mysterious.
But both sides were smiling when they came out of the courtroom. Very difficult to read.
BASH: And Rusty, didn't Mark Geragos say that he was going to have some new evidence that was going to help his client, Scott Peterson? Did that ever happen?
DORNIN: Well, he said he was going to prove him stone-cold innocent. He said he was going to provide witness that saw Laci Peterson. He did not provide any of that.
The interesting thing was there were a lot of expectations because the prosecutors seemed very weak in their case in the beginning. But they had a strong closing argument.
And on the other hand, Mark Geragos was strong during the prosecution's case. He really brought out a lot of his own elements. But when he did his close, a lot of people felt that he wasn't as flamboyant, he wasn't -- he didn't come out with the things that he promised to in the beginning.
BASH: Rusty, thank you very much. We'll all be watching.
And we're back ON THE STORY right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HAYS: Thanks so much to my colleagues for another great show. Thank you for watching ON THE STORY.
We're back next week. Hope to see you then.
Still ahead, "PEOPLE IN THE NEWS," focusing this week on Tom Hanks and Rod Stewart.
Straight ahead, let's check on what's making news right now.
NGUYEN: Good morning. I'm Betty Nguyen at the CNN Center here in Atlanta.
"PEOPLE IN THE NEWS" begins in just a moment. But first, here's a look at stories "Now in the News."
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Aired November 6, 2004 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BETTY NGUYEN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, good morning to you. I'm Betty Nguyen at the CNN Center here in Atlanta, checking today's headlines.
In Iraq, extreme violence and a heavy toll today in Samarra. At least 34 people were killed and dozens wounded this morning in a series of car bomb explosions and mortar attacks in the city north of Baghdad.
Explosions and gunfire also this morning in Fallujahh. U.S. warplanes are again pounding targets in and around the rebel-held Iraqi city. Meantime, U.S. tanks have been in action in northeastern Fallujahh. The attacks are laying the groundwork for what is expected to be a major offensive by U.S. and Iraqi forces.
Also in Iraq, 20 U.S. Marines have been wounded in an attack on their convoy. It happened near the town of Ramadi, which is west of Baghdad. The area has been an insurgent stronghold.
In France, supporters of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat held a vigil outside the hospital where he lay in a coma. U.S. officials say Arafat is on life support and negotiations are under way to arrange for his burial. Senior Palestinian sources insist Arafat is in stable condition and not in any immediate danger.
Those are the headlines "Now in the News." I'm Betty Nguyen at CNN Center here in Atlanta. ON THE STORY starts right now.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to CNN's ON THE STORY, where our journalists have the inside words on the stories we covered this week. I'm Candy Crowley, ON THE STORY of the election. What made the difference in the campaign, and who gets praise and who gets blame?
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I'm Dana Bash, ON THE STORY of how President Bush will spend his new political capital and try to fulfill promises he made on the campaign trail.
KATHLEEN HAYS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And I'm Kathleen Hays, ON THE STORY of that Bush rally on Wall Street and the Bush plan for Social Security.
Later in the hour, Fionnuala Sweeney is ON THE STORY of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, hospitalized in Paris. Also coming up, we'll go to Iraq, where Jane Arraf is with U.S. troops massing around the insurgent holdout of Fallujahh. And Rusty Dornin is ON THE STORY of the Scott Peterson murder trial as the jury deliberates his fate.
E-mail us at ONTHESTORY@CNN.COM.
Now straight to Dana Bash and the election victory.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: America has spoken. And I'm humbled by the trust and the confidence of my fellow citizens. With that trust comes a duty to serve all Americans. And I will do my best to fulfill that duty every day as your president.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: President Bush Wednesday afternoon formally claiming his reelection victory after what he called a long night and a great night. And the president said his new term is a new opportunity to reach out to the whole nation, even the 55 million Americans who voted against him.
CROWLEY: Well, back to that long night, great night, it began in the day. I felt like you and I were living in these parallel universes.
BASH: Absolutely.
CROWLEY: Just the mere -- everything was so up in the Kerry campaign that day. Take me back to the Bush campaign.
BASH: Everything was so up in the Kerry campaign, and in the Bush campaign, I wouldn't say it was outright panic, but I would say a lot of concern. Because what they were looking at, these exit poll numbers, which we all get, which were posted on the Internet, which we don't report because we don't want to do anything to turnout, but we all see them. And they showed Kerry doing remarkably well in all of the key states.
And you had the Bush -- the president's top strategists essentially laying out what they described a little bit later all of their data on the table, trying to figure out, wait a minute, where did we go wrong, what's happening? And then they started to look at some of the -- of the -- of the numbers, and said that it showed that like 58 percent of the electorate were women, which would have shown a tremendous shift in the electorate.
So then they started thinking, well, you know what, maybe it's not going to go as well for Kerry. But still, they understood that the Kerry people were essentially elated, and they were very, very concerned.
But then it definitely started to shift a little bit as the -- as the returns came in. But there was definitely, I would say, Candy, like a three to four-hour window on Election Day where they didn't breathe. They were holding their breath.
HAYS: Well, and because of the exit polls, many people in the news business and, therefore, people outside the news business who know people in the news business were convinced that John Kerry, President Kerry was all set to starting to lining up his cabinet. At what point in the evening did President Bush's team say, oh, my gosh, it really has turned in their favor?
I went to bed a little after midnight, kept waking up all night. And finally at 5:00, "I've got to get up and see what's happening." And there it was, 254-252, not yet a done deal.
BASH: Well, it really did affect the dynamic of the day. But definitely it was when they started to get the real returns, right?
I mean, don't you think, Candy, the real returns, when they started to come in, exit polls showing that President Bush was not doing that well in South Carolina, a place where he should have and ended up having -- had a blowout. Then they started realizing, wait a minute...
CROWLEY: Virginia.
BASH: ... these numbers, Virginia, South Carolina, these numbers are not -- are not that right. Then the dynamic completely changed.
I was over at Bush-Cheney headquarters, and then suddenly all of the senior strategists and the top officials started coming down and talking to us and tried to explain where they thought the state of play was, trying to sort of spin us a little bit more, at that point, when they had actually tried to figured out what was going on.
But it was essentially at the point where they really thought that they won Ohio, which was the final, that they sent us over to the Reagan headquarters where -- the Reagan Building, where the president was going to come out for this victory speech. And we got there and nobody showed up.
We were waiting, we were waiting at 4:00 in the morning, 5:00 in the morning. Where is everybody? Well, they decided that they were going to -- that they were going to wait for Kerry to actually concede because there were all these questions about the provisional ballots.
But it certainly made for a long night. And they weren't actually sure, even until that morning, even until Wednesday morning, whether the president was just going to come out and say, you know, "Look, I declare victory," or wait until Kerry conceded.
CROWLEY: Spinning forward, you know I look at this and I think there is nothing freer than a politician who doesn't have to run again for office.
BASH: Absolutely.
CROWLEY: It is maybe when they can most do and be who they really are, not having to worry about constituencies. Where do you see this? Is this -- is this an administration that's going to go right, middle, a little bit -- I mean, how do you see them moving? BASH: You know, it is really unclear. Basically, what -- if you listen to what the president said in his news conference, I mean, he just said it: "I've got political capital and I intend to spend it." But what his focus was not -- at the news conference and also a the victory speech on two big domestic issues, agenda items, which you certainly know a lot about, Social Security reform and tax reform.
And these are the issues that he is definitely going to try to push for. And they're going to take a lot of political capital. And it's going to be very hard.
It's sort of going to be interesting to see how he reconciles these two ideas of reaching across the aisle to Democrats and spending political capital on issues that Democrats hate; philosophically, fundamentally oppose. But look, I mean, if you look at the results, he got -- he did get tremendous turnout and tremendous support among people that are somewhat unlikely, perhaps, people who are lower to middle income that you would maybe possibly think traditionally would vote Democrat.
He got a lot of the people that he was really reaching out to on the moral issues. And it's going to be interesting to see whether or not he does reach for and push some of the social issues that he talked so much about, Candy, during the campaign when he went to these areas, the rural areas. He really played it up. It's going to be interesting to see whether or not he pushes that legislatively.
HAYS: And I think that's why a lot of Kerry supporters are concerned. I think it was very interesting in that news conference when the president went out of his way to say, you know, separation of church and state. Because there has been so much discussion about how he talks about religion, uses it in his office.
But he said, you know, you don't have to be any religion to be an American. And yet, I think many people who did not vote for President Bush are wondering how much focus will be -- he talked -- I was surprised how much he's going to commit his political capital to Social Security reform.
BASH: Yes.
HAYS: This is a tough deal, a tough road to hoe. But how much do you think on the legislative side he's going to get bogged down? Does it really mean that much to President Bush, I guess is what I'm asking, or is this just part of his campaign ploy on the social issues?
BASH: On the social issues. Well, I think that the other thing about the moral or social issues that's interesting to point out is that it is not just about necessarily gay marriage or about abortion.
It is also -- when he talks about moral issues, it is also about character. And that's what he really tried to push at the end of the campaign.
It's, "I'm the guy you know, I'm the guy you trust and I'm the guy you want." So the moral issues and the moral sort of section that people talked about, yes, they voted on, could perhaps be -- and we don't have any -- necessarily evidence to this -- the fact that they just essentially relate to the president and what he believes in because they maybe knew him and understood him better than they understood John Kerry.
CROWLEY: Yes. You know, one of the things that's going to be interesting, I think, is to see where he does spend that capital. But I thought in his acceptance speech, or whatever we call it, the victory speech, when he spoke directly, he said, "I want to talk to the 54 million people that voted for John Kerry. I want to be president of all of you. I'm going to work very hard to earn your trust."
Because the key thing, obviously, on the Democratic side is you can't trust this guy, he's lying to you.
BASH: Right.
CROWLEY: I mean, that sort of thing. And it's hard to see how he's going to do that balance between the two issues, say -- I wanted to ask you if you look back on this campaign and see any one point that capsulizes the campaign or that you think it turned here, or this was a moment in retrospect that was big?
BASH: That's an interesting question. You know, maybe this is too easy, but probably after the third debate.
I mean, they were all -- the Bush campaign, as you would expect they should be, they were very upset and very nervous after the first debate, even the second debate. After the third debate, you saw the sigh of relief, you heard the sigh of relief, and you sort of -- you know, you got the sense from them, OK, we're back in the game, we feel good, we feel much better. You definitely got the sense that that was sort of turning back to where they thought that they were before, and after the stinging after -- after the debates was sort of over.
CROWLEY: Well, as the Republicans celebrate victory, the Democrats are figuring out their failure and their future. I'm back on that story after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It was a privilege and a gift to spend two years traveling this country, coming to know so many ever you. I wish that I could just wrap you up in my arms and embrace each and every one of you individually all across this nation. I thank you from the bottom of my heart.
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CROWLEY: John Kerry conceding defeat Wednesday where it began, in Boston, when he said all they had was hope and a vision. On Wednesday, he urged his supports to keep up the fight.
BASH: So Candy, we talked just now about how confident the Kerry campaign was, even up to the day of the election. Now that they didn't win, what are they saying they think was their biggest mistake?
CROWLEY: You know, it depends on which Democrat you talk to, OK? I mean, this is a party that's going to have a lot -- I have people that I've talked to since then that said, you know, he was too liberal, it was liberal Massachusetts. People didn't trust him, the "L" word stuck.
I've had people saying, you know, he wasn't liberal enough. He wasn't Howard Dean. He should have, you know, gone after all of these things.
From the beginning he had a huge problem, and that was he voted for the war when his party was against the war. And then he voted against the $87 billion that we now have to -- you know, that he's had to explain through the entire thing.
But in the end, what does it get down to? It gets down to message and messenger. All messengers are flawed. This one had a particularly high benchmark.
He had to convince the public to throw out a commander in chief in a time of war. And they always said that was a high bar.
They feel that he met the criteria of "I can be commander in chief." But, you know, when people go into that voting booth -- and Democrats will tell you this, Republicans will tell you this -- there is an -- there is an X factor there that's just your gut, who do I trust? And the Bush campaign did a very good job of undermining that.
HAYS: Well, there's so many issues here. One that comes to mind, though, is that -- let's be honest, that throughout this campaign, a lot of what drove the Democrats was, let's get Bush out of office. So many people adamantly against the president, really against the war.
So it seemed like they were looking -- the Democrats were somebody who could beat Bush. And that was part of the problem, that they never found a candidate or a message or a vision that clearly defined where they were going, except we're going to get rid of Bush.
CROWLEY: Absolutely. The message was not Bush.
HAYS: Yes.
CROWLEY: And that, in the end, can't sustain -- and they tried to do that. They tried so many -- I cannot tell you how many times we would start off a week and we would get a weekly briefing of someone saying, "OK, we're going to turn the corner now. We're going to talk about the economy and health care. Because in those red states, that's what they really care about, jobs."
And then we'd spend the entire week talking about Iraq. BASH: And every time they did that, the Bush campaign went, "Yahoo."
CROWLEY: Exactly.
BASH: That was their message.
CROWLEY: Exactly. So it was very tough because it was just the elephant in the living room. It was very hard, you know, to ignore Iraq.
HAYS: But the other thing that gets me is that I think many pundits, many writers and commentators say, well, how could -- how could, you know, middle class Americans and low income Americans vote against their own interests and vote for George Bush? I think that people maybe don't understand that there are many people of modest means who either don't vote their pocket book or maybe feel they share President Bush's vision of the economy, the ownership society, you know, you can invest, you can start your own business.
CROWLEY: A boot strap sort of...
HAYS: Exactly.
CROWLEY: And absolutely. And I think they tried very hard with John Edwards to reach out to rural voters. It clearly didn't work.
But I think, also, that there just is something that voters liked about George Bush and things that voters didn't like about John Kerry. And the Bush campaign was very good at exploiting those.
And, you know, John Kerry is not an unlikable guy. I mean, you know him. He's not at all.
It's just that he -- there is a reserve about him that never reached out and said, OK, we all know why you should vote against George Bush, and here's why you should vote for me. He never could quite -- I mean, I thought that last "I wish I could reach out and hold you all in my arms," it was such an unKerryesque sort of sentiment that was said with great emotion. You know?
BASH: Candy, one thing that is just fascinating is what we call the ground war, the ground game, the get-out-the-vote operation at the end. And Karl Rove and the Bush campaign said from day one of this term that they were not going to get beaten like they were four years ago by the Democrats.
And they had this unbelievable operation. They had the 1.4 million volunteers, three times as many as last time.
Did the Democrats just get caught flat-footed? What happened?
CROWLEY: What's interesting is I don't think that the Republicans talked about it nearly so much as the Democrats.
BASH: They were stealth. CROWLEY: It was like the whole stealth operation going on. And what we heard daily, in e-mails, on the phone, you know, MoveOn.org, about ACT, Americans Coming Together, there were any number of people out there -- a lot of things -- and Republicans will tell you this and Democrats are beginning to wonder -- some of those organizations were set up and they had paid people that went to Ohio, that went to West Virginia and -- to register voters.
The Bush campaign was entirely voluntary. Well, passion says a lot in politics. And so, you know, it's interesting that despite the fact that Democrats outspent the Republicans on the ground war, the ground war still came in for the Republicans.
So you have to again look at -- and back to an original thing, sometimes I wondered, were they overdoing the anti-Bush -- where they overdoing the anti-Bush rhetoric? Were they overdoing it, you know, with -- there was a famous fundraiser in New York that the Bush team glommed on to for Kerry, where they said some really perfectly awful things about George Bush. They were off color, they were pretty -- you know, he's a thug, he's a murder, that kind of thing.
There was a lot of that kind of rhetoric out there. People don't want to believe that about their president. And I wonder insofar -- it wasn't what John Kerry said. But these were people affiliated with him.
BASH: And it played right into the values thing.
HAYS: Right.
BASH: It played right into the values thing for the president.
CROWLEY: Yes.
HAYS: Well, and speaking of people affiliated with him, Hollywood stars, rock stars affiliated with him, Teresa Heinz Kerry affiliated with him, a very wealthy woman with kind of an enigmatic personality for many people, the gay rights marriage thing stuck to John Kerry, despite the fact he had almost an identical position to President Bush.
CROWLEY: Absolutely. I mean, he was -- he was against the constitutional amendment, saying we don't need to mess with the Constitution about this. But he always -- John Kerry always said I'm against gay marriage, I'm for civil rights.
BASH: Civil unions.
CROWLEY: I guess civil rights is the wrong -- civil unions, all right. And the reason I mix that up is that I remember early on we were down South in a black forum. I think it was a church. It was a Sunday.
And an African-American woman stood up and said, you know, "I really -- I want to support you. I really like you. I like what you stand for. But stop equating gay rights with civil rights, because it is not the same thing. That's an insult to me."
BASH: Wow.
CROWLEY: And then she said, you know, "The bible says..." and this and that. And it was a little one of those canaries, you know, that sent him to the cave.
I talked to black Republicans, particularly the secretary of state in Ohio, who said, "I think that they are underestimating the values issue in African-American communities."
BASH: And it wasn't an accident, I don't think, that there were, what, 11 ballot issues in the states...
CROWLEY: Right, in Ohio.
BASH: ... on the American -- I mean, it was really out there. It was out there, and it was an issue that voters were really focused on. And people just did not support John Kerry's position on it.
CROWLEY: Even though it was the same...
BASH: Even though it was the same position.
CROWLEY: It was -- and I think that then it gets back to exactly what you're saying. Was it gay marriage? Was it abortion? Was it all of these wedge issues?
Or was it, "Here's the guy I trust. I know what he's saying. You know, I know where he stands?" And they weren't always quite sure of where John Kerry stood.
BASH: Well, Candy, we're going to have a lot more talk about this later. And, of course, in the next four years, as we talk about '08, because, of course, it is never too early for that, but now we're going to talk about the war in Iraq, which, of course, never paused for the campaign here at home. And U.S. forces have been preparing for a possible major assault around Fallujahh.
Our Jane Arraf is right there ON THE STORY, and we'll talk to her right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: There's a recognition that these -- some of these people must be defeated. And so that's what they're thinking about. That's why you're hearing discussions about potential action in Fallujahh.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF: That was President George Bush talking about what is expected to be the decisive battle since the end of major combat.
Welcome back to ON THE STORY. I'm Jane Arraf, near Fallujah.
HAYS: And Jane, we know you can't tell us where you are, who you're with, what plans may lie ahead that you know about. But it's clear this battle in Fallujahh is -- is imminent. And are -- is there a feeling among the troops that this is just the first of a new tougher wave to come with a reelected George Bush, who now feels he has a mandate from the people?
ARRAF: That's a really interesting thought. It's been brewing for a long time.
Now, certainly, there was the feeling that if he lost, then that could change things. But really, what this is seen as is the culmination of weeks, months of negotiations, of efforts, of attempts to allow Iraqis to handle things in Fallujahh. And a realization, it seems, among the military and some Iraqi political leaders that the only way to do this is really to go down to ground and battle these insurgents in Fallujahh.
And it promises to be absolutely dreadful. This is -- there are no illusions here that this not going to be long, drawn out and potentially, very, very bloody.
CROWLEY: Jane, forgive me, but it seems to me that we've always been preparing for the battle of Fallujah. What gives us the sense that it's happening now? I feel like we've had this conversation with you for a while.
ARRAF: You're absolutely right. It's the same with a lot of things in Iraq. It sort of seems we've done that before.
But this one, the difference is -- one of the differences is, we're here. And a lot of journalists are here. And there are an awful lot of soldiers here at this undisclosed location near Fallujah.
There are, in fact -- we're told we that can say there are more than 10,000 of them. So that certainly sends a signal.
And there really is a feeling that it is rolling towards the deadline of Iraqi elections. If they don't get Fallujah settled, they will never be able to hold elections, the American force can never leave. And it will set in force a chain of events that will be very, very hard to recover from.
It is hard to get across exactly how much is riding on this. It is immense, the stakes here.
BASH: Jane, talk a little bit more about that, about the impact that this battle of Fallujah would have and could have on the elections that are scheduled for January.
ARRAF: It's kind of precarious right now. You go out in the streets -- we've been out in Baghdad -- just before I left, I was in Baghdad talking to people in the streets about how they felt about Iraqi elections coming up, the American elections, and whether Fallujah mattered. And it does matter to them. To the Sunnis, to a lot of Sunni Muslims in Iraq, Fallujah is a symbol. And even if they welcome American forces here, they do not want to see this city destroyed. They don't want to see civilians die, which is certainly going to happen.
And it is going to be turned into a public relations campaign. We've seen that before, and we will see it even more so now. That there is a feeling here that once they go in, the Marines and the Army and everyone supporting them, once they go in, they're not going to leave until this is finished. And that really bodes dire consequences for Iraqis in this area and for the ripple effect of how Iraqis outside Fallujah will feel about this.
HAYS: Well, you know, so many Iraqis already fleeing. Who are the people who can't leave? Is there nowhere to go? Is it impossible to get out of the city now?
And what about the troops who can't just sit back and, you know, fire big bombs at destinations miles away? Soldiers are going to go into the city with their weapons, house to house. This is real honest to goodness combat.
ARRAF: It sure is. And I've been trying to figure out exactly how many civilians there are still there.
We've heard various estimates from 30,000 to 90,000. And 90,000 would be close to a third of the population of Fallujah.
Now, a lot of people have left. This has been coming for a long time, as we've said. And the prime minister here has warned that the window of opportunity is closing, that, essentially, they are heading towards an attack, if these people don't give up the insurgents.
But there will inevitably be a lot of people who can't leave. They're too poor. They don't have the means to leave. They're sick perhaps.
And there will be people, a certain amount, according to U.S. forces, who are being kept there against their will. And there will be people -- there are people we know who believe this is the last stand.
They may be insurgents. They may consider themselves nationalists. But they believe Fallujah is the last stand against the American forces, and they are going to stay no matter what.
HAYS: Jane, thanks so much for this. But before we let you go, what are you look for ON THE STORY in coming days?
ARRAF: Well, it's going to be interesting to see what unfolds close to here in Fallujah, as well as those Iraqi elections. Absolutely fascinating.
Again, this week we were out talking to people. They are beginning to register for elections, Iraqis. Extraordinary. So those two things, what happens with Iraq and its elections, and what happens in Fallujah? Both of them interlinked.
HAYS: Well, Jane, it's great to see you -- see you in such great spirits. We hope you stay safe. And we'll look forward to seeing you again soon ON THE STORY.
ARRAF: Thanks, everybody.
HAYS: From Iraq, to the economy, the stock market celebrated the Bush victory with a big rally. I'm back on that story in a moment.
Also, we're -- coming up, we're going to Paris, where CNN's Fionnuala Sweeney is ON THE STORY of Yasser Arafat's condition. And Rusty Dornin is ON THE STORY of the final chapter in the Scott Peterson murder trial.
All coming up, plus a check on what's making news at this hour.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
Call of that coming up.
NGUYEN: Well, good morning. I'm Betty Nguyen.
It is another violent day in Iraq. Twenty U.S. Marines were wounded when their convoy was attacked in Al Anbar Province, which is near Ramadi.
At Samarra, which is north of Baghdad, car bomb explosions and mortar attacks killed 34 Iraqis and wounded dozens. Iraqi police officers are among the victims.
Terrorism and togetherness are among President Bush's topics in today's recorded radio address.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
BUSH: Now the election is behind us, and our country is ready to move forward, our nation is fighting and continuing the war on terror, and every American has a stake in the outcome. Republicans, Democrats and Independents love our country. And together, we will protect the American people. We will persevere until the enemy is defeated and our nation is safe from danger.
Every civilized country also has a stake in the outcome of this war. Whatever our past disagreements, we share a common enemy and common duties to confront disease and hunger and poverty in troubled regions of our world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
NGUYEN: And the president promises to continue reaching out to friends and allies.
Right about now some high-flying adventurers are picking up the X Prize in St. Louis. Burt Rutan's Mojave Aerospace Ventures will get a check for $10 million. Not a bad way to start your Saturday.
The company's rocket plane won the prize for breaking through the Earth's atmosphere twice in two weeks. SpaceShipOne flew into space over the California desert on September 29 and again on October 4.
Those are the headlines right now. I'm Betty Nguyen at the CNN global headquarters. Now it is back to ON THE STORY.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RICHARD CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This has been a consequential presidency which has revitalized our economy and reasserted the confident American role in the world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYS: The victorious Bush-Cheney team was handed new evidence on a revitalized economy at the end of the week. A surge in new jobs last month up 337,000. Way above what was expected.
Welcome back. We're ON THE STORY.
BASH: Kathleen, I have to say, I just laughed. When I saw that number on Friday morning, I just laughed. After how many months of the Bush campaign and the White House promising this was going to happen, it actually happened.
HAYS: And, you know, it wasn't just that overall number. It was also the fact that, you know, the government is constantly fine-tuning these numbers. It's a huge economy, and, you know, the numbers come in, in bits and pieces sometimes.
But if you look at the revisions in August and September, there were 100,000 more jobs out of that than people thought. So people look at it, it looks great.
There was -- some of the jobs are construction, you know, the rebuilding in Florida, 71,000 construction jobs. But, you know, the services industry, where most people are employed, if you think of education and health care and professional services and managers, there was a very strong gain.
There, look, you can see it -- 272,000. That's the kind of number you see when things are really good.
And, of course, the worrisome part is the one at the bottom. Manufacturing down 5,000 jobs. There still seems to be, even though the manufacturing sector is improving, no jobs there.
But good news for the Bush administration. If you get more numbers like this, it's like, yes, it really does vindicate, I would think, their policies to a certain extent. But you have to see more.
BASH: And he's not the first president now since Herbert Hoover to lose jobs, right?
HAYS: Very close.
(CROSSTALK)
HAYS: Well, let me -- yes, because I did the math yesterday. If you go from January 2001 to October 2004, he is still down 371,000 jobs. I worked through this with somebody at the Labor Department. OK?
So, over the next two months, if they can make 200,000 jobs each month, he doesn't lose jobs. But as, you know, Jerry Bernstein (ph), Economic Policy Institute, now we know this is a liberal think tank that's been hammering at all things wrong with the Bush administration.
He said, whoop-de-do. You know, beating Herbert Hoover is not exactly a very high par.
(LAUGHTER)
HAYS: And, you know, we're going to need to see more job growth. There's still one in 10, nearly one in 10 Americans who are unemployed or really can't find the kind of job they want. And I got this from Steve Hipple, Bureau of Labor and Statistics, said, "You can quote me on this."
And so, I mean, there really are a lot of people still out of work. And that's why jobs have to keep growing like this.
CROWLEY: So let me ask you about Wall Street. We all know that when something becomes certain, Wall Street likes it because they don't like uncertainty. So I'm judging we're in the wrong business.
But anyway, in general, does Wall Street think George Bush is better for business than John Kerry would have been? Are they happy, unhappy?
HAYS: There's two big parts to this, Candy. And one part is that this is the man who cut taxes, he wants to make the tax cuts permanent. And he cut taxes also on dividends and capital gains.
Business really, really like this. No doubt about it. And I think they were a little bit worried about John Kerry starting to raise some taxes, coming in with a big health care plan. And so they are very happy.
And the election uncertainty is over. And typically, you get some kind of rally in the stock market once that clears up.
But, you know, there's another big part of this. And that is the budget deficit. And Wall Street right now is not focused on that.
President Bush has been one of the biggest-spending presidents in history. His supporters say, well, yeah, but he to run for reelection, and now he can rein that back in.
The dollar this week didn't get too much attention in the mainstream press. But it weakened steadily because I think the foreign exchange traders are worried about foreign investors losing confidence in us, in investing in the United States with a budget deficit that remains bigger, gets bigger. And they're worried about the trade deficit.
BASH: And there's probably also concern about the cost of the president's plans, particularly Social Security reform. I mean, there are some estimates that -- that privatizing, even for young people, will cost, what, like $2 trillion?
HAYS: $1.5 to $2 trillion. And that estimate came from President Bush's own Social Security Commission. So it's a good, solid number.
You know, I have to say, when he gave that -- that long press conference, which someone said sounds like a State of the Union Address, almost, it's interesting to me. When he talked about spending his capital, the first thing on the list Social Security reform, tax reform, all these really hard core economic things right at the top. And he seems very, very serious about doing this.
These personal accounts, oh, boy. Supporters say that it will finally give people part of this ownership society. You know, even people of low, modest means can take some Social Security money and start investing it. The advocates also say they think it will be set up so you're confined to very conservative investments.
Now...
CROWLEY: But don't even conservative investments beat what -- the Social Security gain? I mean, isn't -- hasn't that always been -- the selling point was even if you invest conservatively...
HAYS: In government bonds, for example. And that's the question. Will -- how -- will people be given just a limited pool of choices?
Wall Street salivating, hoping it means, oh, boy, invest in all kinds of mutual funds. But the people I talked to this week from the conservative think tanks said pretty much no, that people would not be in Internet funds and that kind of a thing.
But the other question is a big picture question. It's going to cost money to do this, as you point out. Because if I am paying taxes to the government, my Social Security tax, and now I can take some of that tax and invest it, that's money that's not going into the general revenues, which is what all Social Security goes to and it gets paid out.
So how will that be made up? Will you cut the benefits for retires? They're saying no, you know?
BASH: It sounds like John Kerry.
HAYS: What will happen? And I think that's the unanswered question. And it comes full circle, again, because this president, for whatever reasons, has -- is coming into this with a big budget deficit. So where does he find the money for this reform?
CROWLEY: Ask him at the next news conference.
Not just the economy at home and war in Iraq on the White House agenda. The health of ailing Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat reminded everyone this week of dangerous uncertainties in the Middle East. We'll check in with Fionnuala Sweeney in Paris when we're back ON THE STORY.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: My first reaction is god bless his soul. And my second reaction is -- is that we will continue to work for a free Palestinian state that's at peace with Israel.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: President Bush, after being asked about reports that Yasser Arafat had died, that turned out not to be true. But his condition is still very hard to pin down, as is the impact his death might have on the Mideast.
Keeping watch in Paris outside Arafat's hospital is CNN's Fionnuala Sweeney.
And Fionnuala, the first question is, what's the latest? What is the condition of Yasser Arafat?
FIONNUALA SWEENEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the latest is pretty much the same as it has been over the past couple of days. The Palestinian authorities both in Ramallah and those in the delegation here accompanying Yasser Arafat to Paris at pains to say that is only the medical team now in the hospital here behind me that is allowed to give out any information.
The last statement we had was almost 24 hours ago, in which it was said that his condition had not changed. And that is what we're hearing today, that Yasser Arafat is still in intensive care. His position hasn't changed one way or the other. He is stable, but by all accounts remains critically ill -- Dana.
CROWLEY: Fionnuala, run me back over that again. Who is giving you this information, and how sure are you of its veracity? I know that there is a lot of political at stake in the condition of Yasser Arafat. So I'm wondering who is telling you and whether you actually believe it.
SWEENEY: Well, there's a lot of confusion at the moment, both here in Paris, and, indeed, in the West Bank, around the world about Yasser Arafat's condition. I think I should point out before I say anything further that under French rule doctors are not obligated to release any information about a particular patient.
And while the Palestinian leader is the Palestinian Authority president, he is a leader without a state. And, as such, he is a private citizen here in many ways, incapacitated in the hospital behind me.
His wife also, Suja, has a large say in what is being released to the public. And it was to that end that last night she sent out the PLO foreign minister to talk to the press to say that, as of that moment, nobody would give any information about the condition of Yasser Arafat except the hospital. He then, of course, went on to break his own embargo almost immediately by saying the president was in "good health" and it might take some time.
So the other people that we're talking to, of course, are people on the ground, people in Ramallah, people here in Paris. But nobody is saying anything on the record. And it is very hard to put together the pieces, except to say that clearly Yasser Arafat is still alive -- Dana.
HAYS: Well, Fionnuala, yesterday there were even reports that he was brain dead, that he was being kept alive by machines. Later, Palestinians said, oh, no, no, he is even conscious. Can you give us some context as to why -- let's say he is in a coma -- why people wouldn't say that? Is there some risk of the political position at stake of the various parties to be giving all this information that seems to be so contradictory at times?
SWEENEY: Well, there's a huge difference between being unconscious and being in a coma. And I think that is why some of the confusion has arisen, because one can be unconscious and not be in a coma. One can be in a coma and it might not be reversible.
Yesterday, Leila Shahid, who's the Palestinian envoy to Paris, said that Yasser Arafat was in a coma but doctors believed it was reversible. I think there is a lot of confusion here.
The Palestinian Authority president was understood to have been undergoing tests on Wednesday. Tests now -- and this is unconfirmed -- for which he might have been sedated. And that is why some Palestinian officials would say he is merely being sedated and that's why he is slipping in and out of consciousness.
So this is a huge gray area. And I think what everybody here is now being careful about, and particularly among the delegation here in Paris and those in Ramallah, is to be very careful about the kind of language that they use.
They're saying, you know, "coma" is a magical term. And so and so -- I'm not a doctor, they're not a doctor. You can't take what we're saying as being guaranteed, because there is a huge difference between being in a coma and being unconscious.
So that is part of the confusion here. And also, I'm afraid to say that when the French authorities here in the hospital behind us issued statements over the last two days, they tended to have been once a day, lasting less than one minute long. And rather than actually clarifying the situation, tend to actually, you know, give rise to even further speculation. CROWLEY: A tough assignment. Fionnuala Sweeney, thanks so much for your input.
From Paris and the Middle East, back to California and the story that kept grabbing headlines for almost two years. We're back on that story with Rusty Dornin after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JUDGE ALFRED DELUCCHI, SCOTT PETERSON TRIAL: The only time you can discuss this case is when you're back in the jury room, you're conducting your deliberations, and then only when all 12 jurors are present. Then you can discuss it until you're blue in the face.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RUSTY DORNIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That was Judge Alfred Delucchi, giving final instructions to the jury to begin their deliberations in the Scott Peterson murder trial. It is a case that's captured the country for nearly two years. The trial was five months now. The moment of judgment approaches.
Welcome back. I'm Rusty Dornin in San Francisco. We're ON THE STORY.
HAYS: Rusty, I can imagine the atmosphere in the courtroom, you know, weeks and weeks of evidence and testimony. But when you get down to this point, the tension rises. What do you see in the faces of the jurors, for example?
DORNIN: The jury all along has been very stone face, very difficult to read. Taking notes at certain times. That sort of thing.
But the time during the jury instructions, it was very somber, very dramatic. I think there were a lot of emotions running through the courtroom, apprehension, relief that this was over, that they were finally going to come to a decision.
CROWLEY: Rusty, you know, I've got to ask you about the families in the courtroom. What's been your observation of, on both sides of that, how they've held up. Have they been in there all the time?
DORNIN: They're there every single day, particularly Scott Peterson's family. Some members -- there's usually four or five people who are there.
They do have a couple members of their family, too, that can speak to the press because they're not covered by the gag order. On the other hand, Laci Peterson's family, there is no one from her family that does speak to the press after some of these court proceedings.
But they are also very somber in the courtroom. There was an incident where they did have a couple words between the two families. The judge quickly said, listen, we don't want this to happen, we don't want any problems. So they now make sure the families come through separate entrances with the bailiffs.
BASH: And Rusty, do you know exactly what the jury is asking for? They've asked to review some new evidence. Do you know what it is and whether that sort of tells you anything?
DORNIN: Well, the first full day of deliberations they asked to see some photos of the inside of Scott and Laci Peterson's house. Yesterday, the did ask -- apparently on Monday they're going to take a look at the 14-foot boat that Scott Peterson said he used to go out fishing that day.
Also, they asked for some phone records between Scott Peterson and his wife Laci. Also, taped conversations between Sharon Rocha and Scott Peterson. There was one conversation where she left a message about them finding an anchor in the bay. And you can hear Scott Peterson whistle in the background. That's about it I think they're going to be looking at on Monday.
HAYS: So, at this point, what do you think this hinges on? You know, they have to make decisions about first-degree murder versus second-degree murder, whether he's guilty at all. When you listen to these deliberations, what do you think are the two or three key things?
DORNIN: Well, I think -- you know, there's a lot of emotion going here that the prosecution has brought out in their closing arguments in terms of, look, their strongest argument is he went fishing where his wife and unborn son washed ashore. That is their strongest argument.
They say this is a man with a motive for murder because he really didn't want to be a father. Of course, they brought out the affair with Amber Frey and that sort of thing.
On the other hand, the defense is saying, look, he had no reason to kill his wife. You can hate him, but don't convict him because of that.
There was no motive for a murder, there was no murder weapon, there was no crime scene and there was no cause of death. So it's really difficult to tell.
One of the key things may be this jury foreman who was elected. And I think most of us figured it would be him.
He is a doctor and a lawyer. He went into the deliberation room with 12 notebooks underneath his arm. So he took meticulous notes. He's going to be taking them through every step of that testimony and picking it apart. And both sides are seeing that as a good thing.
CROWLEY: Well, 12 notebooks sounds like a long deliberation. Rusty, campaigns have buzz to them, they have feel to them. You know when they're up, you know when they're down. What's the buzz inside the courtroom? Does it favor one verdict or another?
DORNIN: It really doesn't. And it's funny, because of the court watchers, people have gone back and forth throughout this trial, depending on how the testimony has gone, depending on how the prosecution or defense had presented their case that day or that week.
Yesterday, it was very interesting because both sides, when they were called back into chambers -- they also apparently had some kind of a jury issue. It wasn't health related, wasn't scheduling that was resolved, but could crop up next week. It was very mysterious.
But both sides were smiling when they came out of the courtroom. Very difficult to read.
BASH: And Rusty, didn't Mark Geragos say that he was going to have some new evidence that was going to help his client, Scott Peterson? Did that ever happen?
DORNIN: Well, he said he was going to prove him stone-cold innocent. He said he was going to provide witness that saw Laci Peterson. He did not provide any of that.
The interesting thing was there were a lot of expectations because the prosecutors seemed very weak in their case in the beginning. But they had a strong closing argument.
And on the other hand, Mark Geragos was strong during the prosecution's case. He really brought out a lot of his own elements. But when he did his close, a lot of people felt that he wasn't as flamboyant, he wasn't -- he didn't come out with the things that he promised to in the beginning.
BASH: Rusty, thank you very much. We'll all be watching.
And we're back ON THE STORY right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HAYS: Thanks so much to my colleagues for another great show. Thank you for watching ON THE STORY.
We're back next week. Hope to see you then.
Still ahead, "PEOPLE IN THE NEWS," focusing this week on Tom Hanks and Rod Stewart.
Straight ahead, let's check on what's making news right now.
NGUYEN: Good morning. I'm Betty Nguyen at the CNN Center here in Atlanta.
"PEOPLE IN THE NEWS" begins in just a moment. But first, here's a look at stories "Now in the News."
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