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On the Story
Deep Throat's Identity Revealed; Bush Rejects Accusations U.S. Detention Camps Are Run Like Soviet Gulags
Aired June 05, 2005 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone. I'm Tony Harris at the CNN Center in Atlanta. ON THE STORY is straight ahead, but first some headlines.
"Now in the News." Police in Aruba are interrogating two men in the disappearance of an Alabama high school senior. Both worked as security guards near the hotel where Natalee Holloway was staying. The 18-year-old honor student, who was on a graduation trip, was last seen Monday as she left a night club. A live report from Aruba is straight ahead.
Former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein will face only a dozen charges at his upcoming trial. That word from a spokesman for Iraq's prime minister. Hussein could face up to 500 charges, but the prime minister says prosecuting him for all of those crimes would be a waste of time. Officials say the trial will probably begin within two months.
In their hunt for insurgents, American Marines and Iraqi soldiers have discovered a massive underground bunker near Fallujah. The bunker, as big as nine football fields, contained large stores of weapons, ammunition and supplies. No insurgents were in the bunker when it was discovered. I'm Tony Harris in Atlanta. Those are the headlines. ON THE STORY starts right now.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Welcome to CNN's ON THE STORY where our journalists have the inside word on the stories we covered this week. I'm Candy Crowley. ON THE STORY is slipping back in time to the 1970s, remembering Watergate, revealing Deep Throat.
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I'm Dana Bash. ON THE STORY of President Bush rejecting the accusation that U.S. terror prisons are like the Soviet era gulags.
KATHLEEN HAYS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And I'm Kathleen Hays. ON THE STORY of a new face, maybe some new rules at the SEC, the federal agency that oversees U.S. corporations and tries to protect investors.
Also coming up, we'll go to Iraq where CNN's Jane Arraf is ON THE STORY with U.S. troops. We'll go to California where the jury now has the Michael Jackson child sex case.
And at the end of the hour, our "What's Her Story?" segment, the runaway bride in court. E-mail us at OnTheStory@CNN.com.
Now straight to developments in the case of the missing Alabama girl in the Caribbean.
CROWLEY: The story is developing in the search for the American teenage girl in Aruba. Natalee Holloway disappeared Monday on a senior class trip to the Caribbean resort.
Joining us from Aruba via video phone, Aruba journalist, Dilma Arends. Dilma, I know you went with the police this morning into the search of the two houses. What were they looking for and what did they get?
DILMA ARENDS, ARUBA JOURNALIST: They were looking specifically for two men. There were two men living in separate homes in the area of San Nicholas. And the team first went to one house where they confiscated two cars, arrested one man and then moved on to a second home where they arrested another person and confiscated some materials. We were not able to get confirmation what else they got, but they took some things with them in plastic bags.
CROWLEY: Dilma, what can you tell us about the reaction in Aruba, the reaction from the girl's family or classmates who were there?
ARENDS: Well, Aruba woke up to the story on Tuesday, actually, because, even though Natalee went missing on Monday morning, the news didn't break out until the next day. At first many Arubians were calm. They did not panic, because this has happened in the past and not even in the recent past, where tourists, usually American girls they stay for a couple days. Somehow they always resurfaced and that's why the police also took that -- they took it serious, but they were not out there because it's something that they've seen happening and we've seen happening, as well. However, when the mother came down to the island, then the whole feeling of urgency started to resurface and that's how the whole community got involved.
CROWLEY: Dilma...
ARENDS: Certainly, I think there's a lot of interest from the communities to try to solve this case.
BASH: Dilma, two people arrested this morning and it's important to note that Natalee Holloway is still missing and apparently has been for now almost a week. So what are police telling you about what they think her fate might be at this point? Are they thinking that they might change the status of it to -- go ahead.
ARENDS: They haven't changed the status. They have, they never wanted to really establish whether it was a kidnap or a disappearance. They kept saying that she's missing, that they do not exclude kidnapping. They do not exclude even murder. They do not exclude anything. But, they keep on insisting that she is missing and that they are conducting their investigation in that pattern.
CROWLEY: Dilma what can you tell us about the number of forces that are out looking? I know that the girl's mother called for more FBI people to come down. Have you ever seen anything quite like this down there in the search for a missing American or anybody else on the island?
ARENDS: Well, no and however, the police here have experience in solving cases like this. I mean, they have done so in the past. However, because of the urgency, especially from the girl's family, they accepted and they welcomed, as a matter of fact, the U.S. help. Three FBI agents arrived at the scene of one of the arrests later on, and they were also -- with their bags -- we don't know exactly what they did, but they were also in the house conducting some investigation. So, I think there is cooperation. However, the Arubian police, under the guidance of Mr. Jan van der Straaten, they have -- they have solved several cases in the past, so there is a big trust that they can do this, as well.
CROWLEY: Thanks so much, Dilma Arends. We'll be checking back with you for developments as you get them from the Aruba case.
Now on to Watergate and the three-decade secret of Deep Throat. I am back on that story after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CROWLEY: W. Mark Felt looking much more like the grandfather next door than a dashing crime fighter-turned secret source that brought down a president. We all got that same quick glimpse of the Hoover G-man this week as we learned that he was Deep Throat, the source who helped the "Washington Post" crack Watergate, uncovering wrongdoing by the president and his team.
BASH: Candy, we now know that the number two man at the FBI was Deep Throat, but we still don't know why. Why did he do it?
CROWLEY: I love this, because one of the things as a reporter, as you know, is that you always have to keep in mind why your source is leaking what they're leaking because they're doing it for a reason, whether, either because they like seeing it on the front page of the paper or because they've got a beef with whoever they're telling you about. But to this day, 32 years later, what we have learned from Bernstein and Woodward is they don't really know. And I can tell you this divided the law enforcement community a lot. Why did he leak and did he have to?
HAYS: It's interesting, because when I think back to that time, there was a strong, strong you know, anti-Nixon, "get him" sentiment in this country and I think many people didn't question Deep Throat's motives. But you did a story this week looking at the reactions of his friends, of his relatives, people in the law enforcement community. Let's get a snippet for a flavor of the debate that's going on now.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOAN FELT, DAUGHTER OF MARK FELT: My dad, I know him -- I know him so well and he's a great man. He's so kind, he's so attentive to other people and loving.
CROWLEY (voice-over): This is not the man a young agent named Skip Brandon met the day he went to present a case to headquarters.
HARRY "SKIP" BRANDON, FORMER FBI AGENT: As an agent, I wasn't really making the presentation. I think I was here to drive the car, but it still almost put fear in your mind. You're going to go up and see him. And he was very -- he is a tough guy.
CROWLEY: Felt had risen to number two at the agency by then -- he hoped one day to get the top job. Now he was running day-to-day operations, seeing to it that procedure was followed. He was Hoover's henchman.
OLIVER "BUCK" REVELL, FORMER FBI ASSISTANT DIRECTOR: He was a very stern, very disciplined, very precise-type individual, very little tolerance for any deviation. He was essentially the enforcer for J. Edgar Hoover on rules and regulations.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY: Hard to remember now how really feared, revered and all those things J. Edgar Hoover was. The Hoover FBI was a power unto itself and therefore, so was Mark Felt. I think you also saw those two men had exactly opposite reactions when we talked to them about how they felt about Felt.
HAYS: But the defense of Felt is that, look, this cover up extended to such high levels. You know, the attorney general is in on it. You couldn't trust the acting FBI director, Patrick Gray. So his best choice of making sure that this thing was busted wide open was getting the press involved.
CROWLEY: True enough. That's what his supporters say. The critics and those inside the FBI and the traffic on the e-mails has been amazing. And former law enforcement folks, as well as current said, listen, first of all, he was leaking or at least heading them in the right direction within days of the Watergate break-in when no one dreamed that Richard -- Richard Nixon had just been elected by a very wide margin over George McGovern. He was a popular president at the time.
Nobody dreamed he was involved or that his campaign was involved, so he was leaking right away. It wasn't like this, oh, my goodness, everybody is against us, I've got to get this out. The other thing that Buck Revell, who was also a number two at the FBI later on said was, why don't you go give a press conference, say, listen here, these things are happening and then quit, because he was number two at the FBI. I mean, somebody would listen to him. Why not go to Judge Sirica who was -- probably should get most of the credit for Watergate and how it ended. So there are a lot of people that really felt that there was something more to this than just peace, justice and the American way because there were, there were ways he could have gone about it, they felt.
BASH: Candy, the way this unfolded was really dramatic, needless to say, but the question that I still have is, really why the family wanted this to be out there. In the "Vanity Fair" article it says, it makes clear that Mark Felt's daughter convinced him by saying, Bob Woodward is going to get not only the fame, but the money and we want money, too here. How much is that a part of this here?
CROWLEY: Hard to tell, because you've seen what we heard from the man himself, which was hi, how are you? You know, good-bye. Clearly Woodward had grave reservations about whether he was doing this voluntarily. We saw that time that sort of farcical parallel universes going on, when the "Vanity" story came out with Mark Felt saying, being quoted as saying, "I'm Deep Throat. And Woodward and Bernstein -- well, we've always said that we won't say a word, and it, you know, it became sort of untenable." But we are told by "The Washington Post" in fact that Woodward was not convinced that this gentleman really was doing this voluntarily. That he didn't have -- still isn't convinced. So, we'll have to see. The question is, can he write a book?
HAYS: Because there could be a lot of money. And I don't know Bob Woodward, but one can't help but wonder if part of what he wants is to control this story, too. He's got a book in the works. He could make a lot more. He's already made a lot of money on this story. It's not like Felt is the only one...
CROWLEY: I actually didn't hear anybody say, oh, listen, this guy shouldn't make any money. He wants to make it. The question is, here is a man who is clearly conflicted about his role. He kept it secret for 32 years. So obviously, it seems to me that Woodward's concern here is he didn't want this to happen -- perhaps because of some of the reaction we saw from the law enforcement community -- while he was alive. So, I think there's that. There's no question that he could make money. The question is, does he remember the story? Does he have enough grasp of the detail of it to make it interesting and to be able to have something to say? That's what we don't know at this point.
BASH: One of the other fascinating things that was unearthed here was that Bob Woodward met him when he was in the Navy and it was just a fluke. They met at the White House. He went, he basically met him in a waiting room at the White House.
CROWLEY: What's interesting is that while lots of times a source on a breaking story can be a press secretary, someone that you really haven't had that much contact with. The fact of the matter is, I think most of us have gotten our best stories from people we've had a long history with because something this huge, you know, no one's going to hand to you because you just happen to be calling them. So it was interesting to me and not surprising when you look at it that this was somebody who was a bit of a mentor. Clearly Woodward still has some respect, some affection for him. He went to visit him when he was out in California in the late '90s, I guess.
HAYS: Quickly, Candy, is this anything more than a footnote in history? Are there any lessons for today?
CROWLEY: Oh, my goodness, I mean there's huge lessons. The entire current modern Washington was built on the ashes of the Nixon administration. We have FEC rules because of Watergate. We have campaign finance reform because of Watergate. We got whole new droves of journalists because of Woodward and Bernstein. We have -- the really interesting thing that we found out when I was looking through some of the polling from that period now and one of the questions, do you trust your government? Above 50 percent, Richard Nixon happens, '73 and '74, dropped to 36 percent. That's still where it is, so that very adversarial, don't trust a thing the government says is all the direct descendant of Watergate and the Nixon administration.
BASH: We're going to talk about what impact that had, perhaps, on the current administration and everything that the president is trying to deal with at this point -- from scandals of a past president to questions President Bush faced in his news conference this week. I'm back on that story right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The American people expect people of both parties to work together. They look forward to the Congress setting aside partisan differences, getting something done. So do I. I'm looking forward to that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: Getting something done is what the American people want, the president said this week. But the question is, do they really want what is on Mr. Bush's agenda and will Republicans in Congress stick with him on the tough stuff like reforming Social Security? Welcome back. I'm Dana Bash and we're ON THE STORY.
HAYS: It is hard to believe this is the same president who in his first term got two round of tax cuts through and just in the first part of his term, the budget he wanted. What happened? Six months later he's running out of gas.
BASH: I'll tell you, this press conference was so emblematic of the problems perhaps they've had right now. They had this press conference with, particularly, during last week when Congress is out of town, in recess, so they could cut through the noise, that's what one aide describes it as, which of course means when opposition is not around. As the president is finishing 50 minutes in the Rose Garden with reporters, on my Blackberry comes the "Vanity Fair" headline `We Know Who Deep Throat Is.' It's like, you know, this guy can't catch a break at this point. He can't even get his message out when Congress isn't around.
Now, granted, the truth of the matter is, in this press conference, he did sit with reporters for 50 minutes, but he didn't really say much. And that is really the goal here -- it's just to say what he has been saying over and over again, reforming Social Security. Yes, he understands that things are tough in Iraq, but don't worry, they'll be OK. Yes, people aren't necessarily feeling the economy getting better, but he promises it is. So that is really the goal, but he's having trouble.
CROWLEY: The question I have when I look at all of this is, is it the election cycle starts earlier, as in right after the re- election of an incumbent president or is it something this incumbent president is doing?
BASH: Well, actually, funny that you ask because we have a poll that might answer that question. The president -- the CNN/Gallup poll, the last one that was done, it showed his approval rating at about its lowest point, 46 percent.
But when you ask a question about the issues, I think we have a poll that says, does Bush agree with you on issues that matter? Only 40 percent say yes; 57 percent say no.
So that might answer the question and it certainly might answer why House Republicans, in particular, are not really that enthralled with what the president is trying to do. Many of the House Republicans are very safe. You know, they won much bigger than President Bush did in the last election. But they're looking around. They're saying nobody is calling me and saying, please reform Social Security. And they're saying, well, you know what? People are calling and saying, why is the economy not great? Why are gas prices so high and that's what I want to be talking about. That's what I want to be pushing through, because, guess what, I'm on the ballot next and he's never going to be again.
HAYS: One of the criticisms that that I'm reading, that I'm hearing of Bush, is he's running his presidency as though he were still running for office, in that he is still playing to his conservative base. You take something like embryonic stem cell research, which some of the House Republicans have gone against, which Bush was not always so against -- clearly seems like a far right issue to push. Maybe even the personal accounts. Do you think that is a valid criticism? And what are White House aides saying? Do they think this is a strategy that works?
BASH: The interesting thing about this White House -- and Candy, you know this for sure, covering the president since he was governor -- is that the way one Bush adviser described it a long time ago and I still think they operate this way is, when the polls are high, we don't dance in the end zone and when the polls are low we don't cry in our beer. That is still the way they seem to be operating at this point. The president still has his eye on the ball and for him at this point, the big prize is Social Security and he said this week, he's going to keep talking about it. Next week he's going to go out and talk about it more and more. He's not going to stop.
CROWLEY: Like trying to turn a freighter, right?
BASH: The interesting difference is that in his first term, for various reasons, they were able to pull Democrats along, pull Democrats across party lines. But Democrats, so far, have been very lock step on this, on this particular issue, Social Security. My favorite phrase from the president's press conference last week was, it's going to take time. It's like water cutting through rocks. I'm no geologist but I think it takes more than three-and-a-half years for water to cut through rocks and that is his problem right now.
CROWLEY: Let me ask you -- a right hand turn here: Gitmo. We had the Amnesty International report which was the president -- all over town they all went, This is terrible, what the Amnesty International report has said. How much of a drag is Gitmo on the administration at this point?
BASH: That is a really good question, Candy. This latest Amnesty report, which said that the Gitmo, what is going on at Gitmo is akin to what happened to the Soviet era, the gulags. And across the administration, you had the president, the vice president, the secretary of Defense essentially going and attacking Amnesty International. I think we have a sound bite from the president during the press conference, talking about it. Let's take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: I am aware of the Amnesty International report. It's absurd. It's an absurd allegation. The United States is a country that is -- promotes freedom around the world. When there's accusations made about certain actions by our people, they're fully investigated in a transparent way. It's just an absurd allegation.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: So, there you hear the president calling the allegation absurd and you do certainly have even some people who don't support the administration saying, look, to call it a gulag is an extreme label that really sort of misses the point. But, on the other hand, you also have late on Friday night, the military admitting while, what "Newsweek" said, which is that the Koran was flushed down the toilet didn't happen, there were five incidents where the Koran was mistreated.
So you do have sort of a steady drum beat of bad news coming out of an area that, as an issue that certainly existed for a long time, but, recently, the reports and the news have really gotten a lot more play. So, I would be willing to bet that once Congress comes back, Democrats are going to be screaming louder and louder for an independent investigation and even bigger questions about whether or not Guantanamo is really appropriate.
HAYS: Interesting how people have so many questions about Harry Reid taking on the leadership for the Democrats. He seems to be doing a pretty good job so far going up against President Bush and marshaling these issues.
From the White House to the war in Iraq. We'll go live to northwestern Iraq and our Jane Arraf back ON THE STORY fighting the insurgency.
Also at the White House this week, a new watchdog over the markets: so who stands to gain?
We'll go to Los Angeles. The final act of the drama of the Michael Jackson trial. "Newsweek's" Allison Samuels is on the story.
And our "What's Her Story" segment at the end of the hour, partial payback for the runaway bride. That's all coming up plus a check on what's making headlines right now. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARRIS: And good morning, everyone. I'm Tony Harris at the CNN Center in Atlanta. ON THE STORY continues in a moment, but first, headlines "Now in the News."
Police in Aruba have arrested two suspects in the disappearance of 18-year-old Natalee Holloway. The police chief also tells CNN the two men worked as security guards near the hotel where Holloway was staying and were not among the three men last seen with Holloway last week.
NASA scientists have freed the Mars Rover Opportunity from a sand dune. It took engineers nearly five weeks to figure out how to maneuver the rover out of the pit. Opportunity and its twin, Spirit, have lasted well beyond their initial three-month mission.
People in the Midwest are not only picking up after a series of tornadoes yesterday, there's a chance they could get hit again today. You're looking at a twister that touched down in Oklahoma yesterday. The wicked weather damaged homes and caused power outages throughout the Midwest.
Those are the headlines "Now in the News." Now back to CNN's ON THE STORY.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: More Americans are working today than ever before. Small businesses are flourishing, families are taking home more of what they earn.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYS: President Bush midweek, singing the praises of a strong economy. But Friday, new numbers showed fewer-than-expected new jobs last month.
Welcome back. I'm Kathleen Hays. And we're ON THE STORY.
BASH: And Kathleen, that jobs report was a big shocker. Describe the impact of it.
HAYS: Well, it certainly hit Wall Street smack dab in the face, and there's been a big debate. There's been mixed numbers on the economy, but I want to -- the thing about the jobs report is, is it's the first national report to come out every month.
It covers all the economy, all the sectors, the whole country. And hiring, of course, is a really good barometer of how businesses feel they're doing. This was the smallest increase in jobs, 78,000 jobs, created net in May since August of 2003.
Now, earlier in the week, there was a manufacturing survey, also closely watched. I talked to the nation's purchasing managers, and they give a sense of orders and output and hiring. It also slowed. Still growing, like the jobs still growing, but not as fast.
Also, back to these levels of like summer 2003, and people are saying, well, but they're still hiring. This could just be a lull. That's what the optimists are saying. And people that aren't optimistic are saying, look, something has happened. The economy is not going into a recession, but it has definitely slowed down.
CROWLEY: Is there any thought -- I mean, I think back to the campaign, where every month the jobs reports in the fall, everybody was looking at it, the Bush administration, the Kerry campaign, and they also were sub-par. We could say, oh, the economy is still in a slowdown.
Is it possible that the economy has just changed over time, that there are not the jobs out there? Because I feel like we have been saying the jobs report was disappointing now for about a year-and-a- half.
HAYS: Well, actually, it has picked up, though. And I think you're right, the focus in the broader political world, certainly Washington, off of the jobs report, well, it has gotten better. It's been averaging 170,000, 180,000 jobs a month. And people say you need about 150,000 new jobs every month to keep up just with new people coming into the labor force and keeping the unemployment rate steady, which actually fell a little bit last month. But on Wall Street, and for people who are watching investments and watching the economy and thinking about jobs, this is still a very important report.
President Bush mentioned small businesses. We're getting increasing reports there.
There's the National Federation of Independent Business. They survey their members. They are planning on hiring a lot.
There's a new smaller survey which actually -- it has a lot of people, but it's concentrated in the Midwest. It's a payroll outfit that does online payroll services.
They have like 14,000 clients. They show like .7 percent increase in hiring in the first five months of the year. They think things are really slowing down.
And it's an important debate, because if you're looking for a job, especially in certain sectors, it could be bad. If you're thinking of investing it's important, because it has a lot to do with what interest rates are doing. If you want to refinance your house it's important, because it could mean a higher or lower mortgage rate.
The linkages are very, very direct. And they can jump really quickly on these kinds of reports.
BASH: I can just say, Candy, that based on what you just said about the campaign, our focus on the jobs report, after the campaign, when the jobs reports had been looking much better, I certainly heard from the White House about, you know, well, why aren't you reporting it now that the news is good? HAYS: All right.
BASH: So I can definitely add to that, but talk about gas prices, because that is the one thing that the White House is freaked about, because they know that the president says he can't do anything about it.
How much is that playing into this, to the jobs report, to the economy in general?
HAYS: Well, certainly for consumers, it's the dark cloud, right? Because probably the jobs report has gotten a little better. But -- and I think you've got to remember, we have two -- a lot of people are talking about bifurcating the economy.
If you have a well-paying job that's secure and you've owned your home for a while, you're sitting pretty. If you are somebody who's been downsized, or you work in the kind of blue collar job that has gone overseas, or so much global competition -- even if you still have a job, your wages are smooshed down, or maybe you're a retired worker and somebody's going to dump your benefits because they're going bankrupt, those are the people who are most hurt by these high gas prices.
The president says, pass my energy bill. A lot of people say, you can pass that energy bill tomorrow and any effect will take 10 years. And meanwhile, we are just at the mercy of the global oil market, and there's demand. We use lots of oil.
We've been driving SUVs. The Chinese are starting to drive now, too, and that pushes up crude oil, and that's about half the price of the gasoline. So there's not too much the president can do about it immediately.
CROWLEY: So from the economy to Jane Arraf. We're going to go to Iraq right after this break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: I was heartened to see the Iraqi government announce 40,000 Iraqi troops are well trained enough to help secure Baghdad. That's a very positive sign.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CROWLEY: A very positive sign, says President Bush this week, about Iraqi troops participating in Operation Lightning, the latest bid to clamp down on deadly attacks on U.S. forces and Iraqis.
Welcome back. We're ON THE STORY with CNN Senior Baghdad Correspondent Jane Arraf in northwestern Iraq, near Telafar.
Jane, let me talk just a second about Operation Lightning. I'm not sure -- the president sort of seemed to say it was a -- you know, we're going after insurgents and that's a good thing, but it seems to me that it was more for the idea that it actually happened at all than what came out of Operation Lightning.
JANE ARRAF, CNN SR. BAGHDAD CORRESPONDENT: That's pretty well it, Candy. You know, part of the problem was that the minister of the interior, Iraqi minister of interior, the minister of defense, the new guys on the block, got up and said, we're going to do some amazing thing. We're going to have 40,000 troops in Baghdad. Police and soldiers and Iraqis are going to love it, and we're going to circle the city like an iron bracelet.
Well, that turned out a little bit to be hyperbole. What did happen, though, was actually quite fascinating.
We were out on some of those overnight raids with Iraqi army, and it was so interesting watching the interaction between this fledgling Iraqi army and their American minders, essentially. At one meeting, just before a major mission, the American adviser was telling them they really should wrap up that meeting because they have to get out and start the mission, and the Iraqi general was saying, no, we've got lots of time.
So, as it was, it started 20 minutes late. But they certainly have a different way of doing things. And the Iraqis are demonstrating that they do have their own way.
BASH: Jane, I want to go back to what you just heard President Bush say in the Rose Garden, talking about how things are going OK in Iraq, the insurgency is -- is really sort of being controlled, or at least they're getting -- they're getting to that point, that the Iraqi military is being beefed up. But the president is getting some more and more pushback from Democrats, even some Republicans, about that -- those Rose Garden statements -- that they're too rosy, essentially, and that he's not really being -- leveling with the American people about what's really going on there.
You are there now, you've been there for so long. Give us some context and let us know from your perspective how things are going based on what the president says.
ARRAF: You know, it's the kind of thing you only really know unless you're out there on the streets. And just an hour ago, we were out in the city of Telafar with U.S. forces from the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment.
Now, these guys got here about three weeks ago. There are 4,000 of them, which is a dramatic increase.
They are unable to drive in Humvees in the streets of that city. They think it's too dangerous. They're going around in Bradley Fighting Vehicles. And what we're finding when we go around with them is a police force that is too afraid to leave the police station, mothers who are afraid to send their children to school, an Iraqi army that's wondering what to do about this, and tribal leaders who are saying, well, just go in and bomb these neighborhoods. It is an incredibly complicated situation that no one bargained for. And although you can point the finger and say, yes, there's progress, when you get out here -- and this is a huge part of the country -- you kind of wonder how it's all going to come together.
HAYS: And what about the split between Shia leadership and Sunni leadership at this point, particularly in this new Iraqi military?
ARRAF: That's another really interesting thing. Again, I'm just now -- you know, I've been here for years, and I'm just now realizing how complicated, intensely, immensely problematic this country really is. And what we're seeing a lot of is a lot of talk of Shia and Sunni that never existed before.
In one -- we were at one woman's home this afternoon, and she sends her kids to school occasionally, but she says she's still afraid, even though this was a Turkoman woman. And she said she saw insurgents about to launch an attack, and she went out and yelled at them.
So there are pockets of that here. But she is Shia, she's married to a Sunni.
What we are finding, though, when it comes particularly to the police and the army, is they're being very, very careful to almost have a quota system for those numbers. Some people think that it's disturbing, alarming, could lead to civil war -- some people think it's necessary.
CROWLEY: Jane, you went to this tribal meeting. And I wanted to ask you, one of the things that you hear -- and I talked to some people this week in the U.S. who said, sooner or later, the Iraqis are going to get tired of the insurgency. It's not just the U.S. against the insurgents, but there are a lot of civilians being killed.
Are you seeing any sign within the tribal meeting or any place else you've been that Iraqis are now looking around and saying, we really have to stop all of this?
ARRAF: We are. One of the amazing things was going into this meeting yesterday at an Iraqi army base where they have flown in tribal leaders, flown them in under cover of night, because these are people who have had assassination attempts on them, they've been mortared, they've been rocketed, they've had relatives killed, and they stood up and said, something has to be done about this.
Some of them said, "We know where these insurgents, these terrorists, whatever you want to call them, are. We know where their neighborhoods where there are attacks that take place, we know where there are places where there are no attacks. We can do something about this."
Now, the cost of doing something about that is extremely high. The cost of a neighbor reporting something in his neighborhood is possible loss and risk to his family. It's not quite at that turning point where you are getting enough people to drive insurgents out of the neighborhoods, but Iraqi officials and U.S. officials say they are getting more information from Iraqis.
CROWLEY: Thanks, Jane Arraf. As always, we are eternally grateful for your reports here on ON THE STORY and across the network. We will keep watching. Thanks a lot.
We are heading West now. The child sex trial of former superstar Michael Jackson is in its final phase, in the jury's hands. We're back ON THE STORY after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CROWD: Fight, Michael, fight! Fight, Michael, fight!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CROWLEY: Michael Jackson's fans yelling, "Fight, Michael, fight," as the lengthy legal drama enters the final act this week.
Welcome back. We are ON THE STORY.
And giving us a front row seat to the Jackson trial is "Newsweek's" national correspondent, Allison Samuels in Los Angeles.
Allison, it strikes me that we are at that point in a trial where all we have are questions and you can't possibly have any answers. How long are they going to stay out? How are they going to decide? But try to give us a sense of the feel in the halls of the courthouse and what people are saying.
ALLISON SAMUELS, "NEWSWEEK": You know, over the last couple of days, and certainly since Friday, many people I know who are around the case feel that it will go a couple days. I mean, I think everybody sort of assumes that we will get a verdict by the end of the week. Some people feel like it will be a little earlier than that, possibly Tuesday.
But I think everybody feels that with the conspiracy charges it won't be that difficult, but the molesting, you know, charges will be where the jurors will probably have their longest sort of negotiations. And there's -- therein lies why they're not really sure if it will be the entire week.
HAYS: And Allison, on the conspiracy charge is the idea that there was a point where the Jackson people kind of forced this young man and his mother to come back to Neverland.
SAMUELS: Right.
HAYS: You're saying that that's probably a slam dunk, he won't be guilty on that. But tell us more about the molestation charge. What is the -- what do the jurors have to be convinced of? Whose veracity? Who die do they have to believe?
SAMUELS: Well, I think they have to believe this young kid, particularly, according to everyone, the tape that appeared last week in closing arguments of the child when he was 13 talking to the police, from all indications was very, very touching and was very believable. And this is from both Michael's camp and the prosecution.
So I think that becomes tough, because prior to that I think the defense had done a pretty good job in making the entire family seem a little shady, portraying the mother as very much an opportunist, and also somewhat the child, you know, with the J.C. Penney situation, telling lies to get things and to get money. I think the prosecution -- you know, the defense had done a really good job in sort of making that something where you go, OK, I'm not sure about this, this could really just be a shakedown.
But then you saw the tape with the child, with his mother not around, sounding very childlike, sounding like a child who had been harmed and mentally damaged by something that had happened to him. And I think, you know, a juror will have to probably take extra time to think about that.
BASH: You talk about the defense's closing arguments, but what about the prosecution closing arguments? What did they say? What was sort of their big picture point that perhaps could have hit home the most with the jurors?
SAMUELS: I think they were able on a very -- in a subtle way to sort of make the point that Michael has been here before. And I think that's a lasting sort of thought to sort of leave the jurors with, because, you're -- you know, I'm sure they've been instructed that only so much of that could actually get in. But the judge did allow for the prosecution to be able to mention, you know, that there have been past incidents.
And I just think with that being the case, that leaves the jurors with a whole -- I would hate to be a juror on this case just because I think it so easily could go either way from the standpoint of Michael with his weird behavior and weird background to the aspect of the parents, with their equally suspicious background. I think this is probably the worse-case scenario for a juror.
CROWLEY: Allison, tell us about the defendant himself and his health, his demeanor.
SAMUELS: He -- as you know, he's supposedly did go to the hospital on Thursday night. His people have been sort of hesitant to sort of talk about what was wrong, but my sources say dehydration, severe anxiety attacks.
And if you look at him, if you look at the way he was on Friday in court, it's clear he lost several pounds. And you have to say "several," because I don't think he had many pounds, you know, sort of to lose. So even a pound is a tremendous sort of, you know, look -- looks for him.
He was just -- not horrible looking, but it was really frightening watching him go into the courtroom on Friday. And I think his family is concerned about him. I think everyone around him is concerned about him, because he's sort of gradually falling down into this sort of place where I don't think he can be reached. I think that is what the family is concerned about.
HAYS: Allison, and I'm sure the concern is that if he is sent to prison, that this -- that he's in a very bad condition for starters. What kind of jail time is he facing if convicted on molestation charges?
SAMUELS: I mean, he can do up to 20 years, if not more, depending on some of the other charges, which, you know, like I said, I'm not sure that the conspiracy charge will stick, nor of giving alcohol to a minor. But for the molesting charge, molestation charge, he can actually do up to 20 years.
And I know his friends and family feel he, you know, will basically just lose it if that happens. They don't see him getting through that at all.
BASH: Allison Samuels, thank you very much. We look forward to your reports in "Newsweek," and particularly as you report this coming week, as we expect to get some kind of verdict from the jury.
And we're back ON THE STORY right after this.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANNOUNCER: The runaway bride can't escape the law. "What's Her Story" now? More when we return.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANNOUNCER: Jennifer Wilbanks. "What's Her Story" now?
A judge sentenced Georgia's runaway bride's this week to two years' probation and 120 hours of community service for lying to police. Wilbanks skipped town April 26, four days before her wedding, and later told police she was kidnapped and assaulted. Once investigators determined she lied, Wilbanks confessed to a case of cold feet.
JENNIFER WILBANKS, RUNAWAY BRIDE: Your Honor, I'm truly sorry for my actions. And I just want to thank Gwinnett County and the city of Duluth for all their efforts. That's all.
ANNOUNCER: She paid her home town $13,000, a fraction of the search cost. In court, Wilbanks was accompanied by her fiance and wearing an engagement ring.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY: The headline for many of us here at CNN this week was the departure of anchor and correspondent and friend Judy Woodruff. We call in our business -- when you say something nice about somebody on the air, we call it a valentine. So here is my valentine to Judy.
You know, she was our canary in the cave. She went in where no one had gone before to breathe the air. She was at the White House, one of the first correspondents there. You know, steadily paved the way for all of us, while being a terrific mother of three and raising three kids, and, for heaven's sakes, being married to Al Hunt.
So, you know, Judy, I can't give you valentines enough.
BASH: And the amazing thing is, like some other people who are sitting here, she was always the person, the kind of person who would turn around and look back and say, "Who else is coming up? How can I help you?" That's what she did to me -- for me, for sure. And that was really what...
HAYS: Great professional lady.
BASH: Yes.
CROWLEY: We can go on forever.
Thanks to my colleagues. And thank you for watching ON THE STORY. We will be back next week.
Up next on CNN, a special one-hour town hall edition of "RELIABLE SOURCES" about the 30-year secret of Deep Throat.
Straight ahead, a check on what's making news right now.
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TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone. I'm Tony Harris at the CNN Center in Atlanta. ON THE STORY is straight ahead, but first some headlines.
"Now in the News." Police in Aruba are interrogating two men in the disappearance of an Alabama high school senior. Both worked as security guards near the hotel where Natalee Holloway was staying. The 18-year-old honor student, who was on a graduation trip, was last seen Monday as she left a night club. A live report from Aruba is straight ahead.
Former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein will face only a dozen charges at his upcoming trial. That word from a spokesman for Iraq's prime minister. Hussein could face up to 500 charges, but the prime minister says prosecuting him for all of those crimes would be a waste of time. Officials say the trial will probably begin within two months.
In their hunt for insurgents, American Marines and Iraqi soldiers have discovered a massive underground bunker near Fallujah. The bunker, as big as nine football fields, contained large stores of weapons, ammunition and supplies. No insurgents were in the bunker when it was discovered. I'm Tony Harris in Atlanta. Those are the headlines. ON THE STORY starts right now.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Welcome to CNN's ON THE STORY where our journalists have the inside word on the stories we covered this week. I'm Candy Crowley. ON THE STORY is slipping back in time to the 1970s, remembering Watergate, revealing Deep Throat.
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I'm Dana Bash. ON THE STORY of President Bush rejecting the accusation that U.S. terror prisons are like the Soviet era gulags.
KATHLEEN HAYS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And I'm Kathleen Hays. ON THE STORY of a new face, maybe some new rules at the SEC, the federal agency that oversees U.S. corporations and tries to protect investors.
Also coming up, we'll go to Iraq where CNN's Jane Arraf is ON THE STORY with U.S. troops. We'll go to California where the jury now has the Michael Jackson child sex case.
And at the end of the hour, our "What's Her Story?" segment, the runaway bride in court. E-mail us at OnTheStory@CNN.com.
Now straight to developments in the case of the missing Alabama girl in the Caribbean.
CROWLEY: The story is developing in the search for the American teenage girl in Aruba. Natalee Holloway disappeared Monday on a senior class trip to the Caribbean resort.
Joining us from Aruba via video phone, Aruba journalist, Dilma Arends. Dilma, I know you went with the police this morning into the search of the two houses. What were they looking for and what did they get?
DILMA ARENDS, ARUBA JOURNALIST: They were looking specifically for two men. There were two men living in separate homes in the area of San Nicholas. And the team first went to one house where they confiscated two cars, arrested one man and then moved on to a second home where they arrested another person and confiscated some materials. We were not able to get confirmation what else they got, but they took some things with them in plastic bags.
CROWLEY: Dilma, what can you tell us about the reaction in Aruba, the reaction from the girl's family or classmates who were there?
ARENDS: Well, Aruba woke up to the story on Tuesday, actually, because, even though Natalee went missing on Monday morning, the news didn't break out until the next day. At first many Arubians were calm. They did not panic, because this has happened in the past and not even in the recent past, where tourists, usually American girls they stay for a couple days. Somehow they always resurfaced and that's why the police also took that -- they took it serious, but they were not out there because it's something that they've seen happening and we've seen happening, as well. However, when the mother came down to the island, then the whole feeling of urgency started to resurface and that's how the whole community got involved.
CROWLEY: Dilma...
ARENDS: Certainly, I think there's a lot of interest from the communities to try to solve this case.
BASH: Dilma, two people arrested this morning and it's important to note that Natalee Holloway is still missing and apparently has been for now almost a week. So what are police telling you about what they think her fate might be at this point? Are they thinking that they might change the status of it to -- go ahead.
ARENDS: They haven't changed the status. They have, they never wanted to really establish whether it was a kidnap or a disappearance. They kept saying that she's missing, that they do not exclude kidnapping. They do not exclude even murder. They do not exclude anything. But, they keep on insisting that she is missing and that they are conducting their investigation in that pattern.
CROWLEY: Dilma what can you tell us about the number of forces that are out looking? I know that the girl's mother called for more FBI people to come down. Have you ever seen anything quite like this down there in the search for a missing American or anybody else on the island?
ARENDS: Well, no and however, the police here have experience in solving cases like this. I mean, they have done so in the past. However, because of the urgency, especially from the girl's family, they accepted and they welcomed, as a matter of fact, the U.S. help. Three FBI agents arrived at the scene of one of the arrests later on, and they were also -- with their bags -- we don't know exactly what they did, but they were also in the house conducting some investigation. So, I think there is cooperation. However, the Arubian police, under the guidance of Mr. Jan van der Straaten, they have -- they have solved several cases in the past, so there is a big trust that they can do this, as well.
CROWLEY: Thanks so much, Dilma Arends. We'll be checking back with you for developments as you get them from the Aruba case.
Now on to Watergate and the three-decade secret of Deep Throat. I am back on that story after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CROWLEY: W. Mark Felt looking much more like the grandfather next door than a dashing crime fighter-turned secret source that brought down a president. We all got that same quick glimpse of the Hoover G-man this week as we learned that he was Deep Throat, the source who helped the "Washington Post" crack Watergate, uncovering wrongdoing by the president and his team.
BASH: Candy, we now know that the number two man at the FBI was Deep Throat, but we still don't know why. Why did he do it?
CROWLEY: I love this, because one of the things as a reporter, as you know, is that you always have to keep in mind why your source is leaking what they're leaking because they're doing it for a reason, whether, either because they like seeing it on the front page of the paper or because they've got a beef with whoever they're telling you about. But to this day, 32 years later, what we have learned from Bernstein and Woodward is they don't really know. And I can tell you this divided the law enforcement community a lot. Why did he leak and did he have to?
HAYS: It's interesting, because when I think back to that time, there was a strong, strong you know, anti-Nixon, "get him" sentiment in this country and I think many people didn't question Deep Throat's motives. But you did a story this week looking at the reactions of his friends, of his relatives, people in the law enforcement community. Let's get a snippet for a flavor of the debate that's going on now.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOAN FELT, DAUGHTER OF MARK FELT: My dad, I know him -- I know him so well and he's a great man. He's so kind, he's so attentive to other people and loving.
CROWLEY (voice-over): This is not the man a young agent named Skip Brandon met the day he went to present a case to headquarters.
HARRY "SKIP" BRANDON, FORMER FBI AGENT: As an agent, I wasn't really making the presentation. I think I was here to drive the car, but it still almost put fear in your mind. You're going to go up and see him. And he was very -- he is a tough guy.
CROWLEY: Felt had risen to number two at the agency by then -- he hoped one day to get the top job. Now he was running day-to-day operations, seeing to it that procedure was followed. He was Hoover's henchman.
OLIVER "BUCK" REVELL, FORMER FBI ASSISTANT DIRECTOR: He was a very stern, very disciplined, very precise-type individual, very little tolerance for any deviation. He was essentially the enforcer for J. Edgar Hoover on rules and regulations.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY: Hard to remember now how really feared, revered and all those things J. Edgar Hoover was. The Hoover FBI was a power unto itself and therefore, so was Mark Felt. I think you also saw those two men had exactly opposite reactions when we talked to them about how they felt about Felt.
HAYS: But the defense of Felt is that, look, this cover up extended to such high levels. You know, the attorney general is in on it. You couldn't trust the acting FBI director, Patrick Gray. So his best choice of making sure that this thing was busted wide open was getting the press involved.
CROWLEY: True enough. That's what his supporters say. The critics and those inside the FBI and the traffic on the e-mails has been amazing. And former law enforcement folks, as well as current said, listen, first of all, he was leaking or at least heading them in the right direction within days of the Watergate break-in when no one dreamed that Richard -- Richard Nixon had just been elected by a very wide margin over George McGovern. He was a popular president at the time.
Nobody dreamed he was involved or that his campaign was involved, so he was leaking right away. It wasn't like this, oh, my goodness, everybody is against us, I've got to get this out. The other thing that Buck Revell, who was also a number two at the FBI later on said was, why don't you go give a press conference, say, listen here, these things are happening and then quit, because he was number two at the FBI. I mean, somebody would listen to him. Why not go to Judge Sirica who was -- probably should get most of the credit for Watergate and how it ended. So there are a lot of people that really felt that there was something more to this than just peace, justice and the American way because there were, there were ways he could have gone about it, they felt.
BASH: Candy, the way this unfolded was really dramatic, needless to say, but the question that I still have is, really why the family wanted this to be out there. In the "Vanity Fair" article it says, it makes clear that Mark Felt's daughter convinced him by saying, Bob Woodward is going to get not only the fame, but the money and we want money, too here. How much is that a part of this here?
CROWLEY: Hard to tell, because you've seen what we heard from the man himself, which was hi, how are you? You know, good-bye. Clearly Woodward had grave reservations about whether he was doing this voluntarily. We saw that time that sort of farcical parallel universes going on, when the "Vanity" story came out with Mark Felt saying, being quoted as saying, "I'm Deep Throat. And Woodward and Bernstein -- well, we've always said that we won't say a word, and it, you know, it became sort of untenable." But we are told by "The Washington Post" in fact that Woodward was not convinced that this gentleman really was doing this voluntarily. That he didn't have -- still isn't convinced. So, we'll have to see. The question is, can he write a book?
HAYS: Because there could be a lot of money. And I don't know Bob Woodward, but one can't help but wonder if part of what he wants is to control this story, too. He's got a book in the works. He could make a lot more. He's already made a lot of money on this story. It's not like Felt is the only one...
CROWLEY: I actually didn't hear anybody say, oh, listen, this guy shouldn't make any money. He wants to make it. The question is, here is a man who is clearly conflicted about his role. He kept it secret for 32 years. So obviously, it seems to me that Woodward's concern here is he didn't want this to happen -- perhaps because of some of the reaction we saw from the law enforcement community -- while he was alive. So, I think there's that. There's no question that he could make money. The question is, does he remember the story? Does he have enough grasp of the detail of it to make it interesting and to be able to have something to say? That's what we don't know at this point.
BASH: One of the other fascinating things that was unearthed here was that Bob Woodward met him when he was in the Navy and it was just a fluke. They met at the White House. He went, he basically met him in a waiting room at the White House.
CROWLEY: What's interesting is that while lots of times a source on a breaking story can be a press secretary, someone that you really haven't had that much contact with. The fact of the matter is, I think most of us have gotten our best stories from people we've had a long history with because something this huge, you know, no one's going to hand to you because you just happen to be calling them. So it was interesting to me and not surprising when you look at it that this was somebody who was a bit of a mentor. Clearly Woodward still has some respect, some affection for him. He went to visit him when he was out in California in the late '90s, I guess.
HAYS: Quickly, Candy, is this anything more than a footnote in history? Are there any lessons for today?
CROWLEY: Oh, my goodness, I mean there's huge lessons. The entire current modern Washington was built on the ashes of the Nixon administration. We have FEC rules because of Watergate. We have campaign finance reform because of Watergate. We got whole new droves of journalists because of Woodward and Bernstein. We have -- the really interesting thing that we found out when I was looking through some of the polling from that period now and one of the questions, do you trust your government? Above 50 percent, Richard Nixon happens, '73 and '74, dropped to 36 percent. That's still where it is, so that very adversarial, don't trust a thing the government says is all the direct descendant of Watergate and the Nixon administration.
BASH: We're going to talk about what impact that had, perhaps, on the current administration and everything that the president is trying to deal with at this point -- from scandals of a past president to questions President Bush faced in his news conference this week. I'm back on that story right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The American people expect people of both parties to work together. They look forward to the Congress setting aside partisan differences, getting something done. So do I. I'm looking forward to that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: Getting something done is what the American people want, the president said this week. But the question is, do they really want what is on Mr. Bush's agenda and will Republicans in Congress stick with him on the tough stuff like reforming Social Security? Welcome back. I'm Dana Bash and we're ON THE STORY.
HAYS: It is hard to believe this is the same president who in his first term got two round of tax cuts through and just in the first part of his term, the budget he wanted. What happened? Six months later he's running out of gas.
BASH: I'll tell you, this press conference was so emblematic of the problems perhaps they've had right now. They had this press conference with, particularly, during last week when Congress is out of town, in recess, so they could cut through the noise, that's what one aide describes it as, which of course means when opposition is not around. As the president is finishing 50 minutes in the Rose Garden with reporters, on my Blackberry comes the "Vanity Fair" headline `We Know Who Deep Throat Is.' It's like, you know, this guy can't catch a break at this point. He can't even get his message out when Congress isn't around.
Now, granted, the truth of the matter is, in this press conference, he did sit with reporters for 50 minutes, but he didn't really say much. And that is really the goal here -- it's just to say what he has been saying over and over again, reforming Social Security. Yes, he understands that things are tough in Iraq, but don't worry, they'll be OK. Yes, people aren't necessarily feeling the economy getting better, but he promises it is. So that is really the goal, but he's having trouble.
CROWLEY: The question I have when I look at all of this is, is it the election cycle starts earlier, as in right after the re- election of an incumbent president or is it something this incumbent president is doing?
BASH: Well, actually, funny that you ask because we have a poll that might answer that question. The president -- the CNN/Gallup poll, the last one that was done, it showed his approval rating at about its lowest point, 46 percent.
But when you ask a question about the issues, I think we have a poll that says, does Bush agree with you on issues that matter? Only 40 percent say yes; 57 percent say no.
So that might answer the question and it certainly might answer why House Republicans, in particular, are not really that enthralled with what the president is trying to do. Many of the House Republicans are very safe. You know, they won much bigger than President Bush did in the last election. But they're looking around. They're saying nobody is calling me and saying, please reform Social Security. And they're saying, well, you know what? People are calling and saying, why is the economy not great? Why are gas prices so high and that's what I want to be talking about. That's what I want to be pushing through, because, guess what, I'm on the ballot next and he's never going to be again.
HAYS: One of the criticisms that that I'm reading, that I'm hearing of Bush, is he's running his presidency as though he were still running for office, in that he is still playing to his conservative base. You take something like embryonic stem cell research, which some of the House Republicans have gone against, which Bush was not always so against -- clearly seems like a far right issue to push. Maybe even the personal accounts. Do you think that is a valid criticism? And what are White House aides saying? Do they think this is a strategy that works?
BASH: The interesting thing about this White House -- and Candy, you know this for sure, covering the president since he was governor -- is that the way one Bush adviser described it a long time ago and I still think they operate this way is, when the polls are high, we don't dance in the end zone and when the polls are low we don't cry in our beer. That is still the way they seem to be operating at this point. The president still has his eye on the ball and for him at this point, the big prize is Social Security and he said this week, he's going to keep talking about it. Next week he's going to go out and talk about it more and more. He's not going to stop.
CROWLEY: Like trying to turn a freighter, right?
BASH: The interesting difference is that in his first term, for various reasons, they were able to pull Democrats along, pull Democrats across party lines. But Democrats, so far, have been very lock step on this, on this particular issue, Social Security. My favorite phrase from the president's press conference last week was, it's going to take time. It's like water cutting through rocks. I'm no geologist but I think it takes more than three-and-a-half years for water to cut through rocks and that is his problem right now.
CROWLEY: Let me ask you -- a right hand turn here: Gitmo. We had the Amnesty International report which was the president -- all over town they all went, This is terrible, what the Amnesty International report has said. How much of a drag is Gitmo on the administration at this point?
BASH: That is a really good question, Candy. This latest Amnesty report, which said that the Gitmo, what is going on at Gitmo is akin to what happened to the Soviet era, the gulags. And across the administration, you had the president, the vice president, the secretary of Defense essentially going and attacking Amnesty International. I think we have a sound bite from the president during the press conference, talking about it. Let's take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: I am aware of the Amnesty International report. It's absurd. It's an absurd allegation. The United States is a country that is -- promotes freedom around the world. When there's accusations made about certain actions by our people, they're fully investigated in a transparent way. It's just an absurd allegation.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: So, there you hear the president calling the allegation absurd and you do certainly have even some people who don't support the administration saying, look, to call it a gulag is an extreme label that really sort of misses the point. But, on the other hand, you also have late on Friday night, the military admitting while, what "Newsweek" said, which is that the Koran was flushed down the toilet didn't happen, there were five incidents where the Koran was mistreated.
So you do have sort of a steady drum beat of bad news coming out of an area that, as an issue that certainly existed for a long time, but, recently, the reports and the news have really gotten a lot more play. So, I would be willing to bet that once Congress comes back, Democrats are going to be screaming louder and louder for an independent investigation and even bigger questions about whether or not Guantanamo is really appropriate.
HAYS: Interesting how people have so many questions about Harry Reid taking on the leadership for the Democrats. He seems to be doing a pretty good job so far going up against President Bush and marshaling these issues.
From the White House to the war in Iraq. We'll go live to northwestern Iraq and our Jane Arraf back ON THE STORY fighting the insurgency.
Also at the White House this week, a new watchdog over the markets: so who stands to gain?
We'll go to Los Angeles. The final act of the drama of the Michael Jackson trial. "Newsweek's" Allison Samuels is on the story.
And our "What's Her Story" segment at the end of the hour, partial payback for the runaway bride. That's all coming up plus a check on what's making headlines right now. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARRIS: And good morning, everyone. I'm Tony Harris at the CNN Center in Atlanta. ON THE STORY continues in a moment, but first, headlines "Now in the News."
Police in Aruba have arrested two suspects in the disappearance of 18-year-old Natalee Holloway. The police chief also tells CNN the two men worked as security guards near the hotel where Holloway was staying and were not among the three men last seen with Holloway last week.
NASA scientists have freed the Mars Rover Opportunity from a sand dune. It took engineers nearly five weeks to figure out how to maneuver the rover out of the pit. Opportunity and its twin, Spirit, have lasted well beyond their initial three-month mission.
People in the Midwest are not only picking up after a series of tornadoes yesterday, there's a chance they could get hit again today. You're looking at a twister that touched down in Oklahoma yesterday. The wicked weather damaged homes and caused power outages throughout the Midwest.
Those are the headlines "Now in the News." Now back to CNN's ON THE STORY.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: More Americans are working today than ever before. Small businesses are flourishing, families are taking home more of what they earn.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYS: President Bush midweek, singing the praises of a strong economy. But Friday, new numbers showed fewer-than-expected new jobs last month.
Welcome back. I'm Kathleen Hays. And we're ON THE STORY.
BASH: And Kathleen, that jobs report was a big shocker. Describe the impact of it.
HAYS: Well, it certainly hit Wall Street smack dab in the face, and there's been a big debate. There's been mixed numbers on the economy, but I want to -- the thing about the jobs report is, is it's the first national report to come out every month.
It covers all the economy, all the sectors, the whole country. And hiring, of course, is a really good barometer of how businesses feel they're doing. This was the smallest increase in jobs, 78,000 jobs, created net in May since August of 2003.
Now, earlier in the week, there was a manufacturing survey, also closely watched. I talked to the nation's purchasing managers, and they give a sense of orders and output and hiring. It also slowed. Still growing, like the jobs still growing, but not as fast.
Also, back to these levels of like summer 2003, and people are saying, well, but they're still hiring. This could just be a lull. That's what the optimists are saying. And people that aren't optimistic are saying, look, something has happened. The economy is not going into a recession, but it has definitely slowed down.
CROWLEY: Is there any thought -- I mean, I think back to the campaign, where every month the jobs reports in the fall, everybody was looking at it, the Bush administration, the Kerry campaign, and they also were sub-par. We could say, oh, the economy is still in a slowdown.
Is it possible that the economy has just changed over time, that there are not the jobs out there? Because I feel like we have been saying the jobs report was disappointing now for about a year-and-a- half.
HAYS: Well, actually, it has picked up, though. And I think you're right, the focus in the broader political world, certainly Washington, off of the jobs report, well, it has gotten better. It's been averaging 170,000, 180,000 jobs a month. And people say you need about 150,000 new jobs every month to keep up just with new people coming into the labor force and keeping the unemployment rate steady, which actually fell a little bit last month. But on Wall Street, and for people who are watching investments and watching the economy and thinking about jobs, this is still a very important report.
President Bush mentioned small businesses. We're getting increasing reports there.
There's the National Federation of Independent Business. They survey their members. They are planning on hiring a lot.
There's a new smaller survey which actually -- it has a lot of people, but it's concentrated in the Midwest. It's a payroll outfit that does online payroll services.
They have like 14,000 clients. They show like .7 percent increase in hiring in the first five months of the year. They think things are really slowing down.
And it's an important debate, because if you're looking for a job, especially in certain sectors, it could be bad. If you're thinking of investing it's important, because it has a lot to do with what interest rates are doing. If you want to refinance your house it's important, because it could mean a higher or lower mortgage rate.
The linkages are very, very direct. And they can jump really quickly on these kinds of reports.
BASH: I can just say, Candy, that based on what you just said about the campaign, our focus on the jobs report, after the campaign, when the jobs reports had been looking much better, I certainly heard from the White House about, you know, well, why aren't you reporting it now that the news is good? HAYS: All right.
BASH: So I can definitely add to that, but talk about gas prices, because that is the one thing that the White House is freaked about, because they know that the president says he can't do anything about it.
How much is that playing into this, to the jobs report, to the economy in general?
HAYS: Well, certainly for consumers, it's the dark cloud, right? Because probably the jobs report has gotten a little better. But -- and I think you've got to remember, we have two -- a lot of people are talking about bifurcating the economy.
If you have a well-paying job that's secure and you've owned your home for a while, you're sitting pretty. If you are somebody who's been downsized, or you work in the kind of blue collar job that has gone overseas, or so much global competition -- even if you still have a job, your wages are smooshed down, or maybe you're a retired worker and somebody's going to dump your benefits because they're going bankrupt, those are the people who are most hurt by these high gas prices.
The president says, pass my energy bill. A lot of people say, you can pass that energy bill tomorrow and any effect will take 10 years. And meanwhile, we are just at the mercy of the global oil market, and there's demand. We use lots of oil.
We've been driving SUVs. The Chinese are starting to drive now, too, and that pushes up crude oil, and that's about half the price of the gasoline. So there's not too much the president can do about it immediately.
CROWLEY: So from the economy to Jane Arraf. We're going to go to Iraq right after this break.
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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: I was heartened to see the Iraqi government announce 40,000 Iraqi troops are well trained enough to help secure Baghdad. That's a very positive sign.
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CROWLEY: A very positive sign, says President Bush this week, about Iraqi troops participating in Operation Lightning, the latest bid to clamp down on deadly attacks on U.S. forces and Iraqis.
Welcome back. We're ON THE STORY with CNN Senior Baghdad Correspondent Jane Arraf in northwestern Iraq, near Telafar.
Jane, let me talk just a second about Operation Lightning. I'm not sure -- the president sort of seemed to say it was a -- you know, we're going after insurgents and that's a good thing, but it seems to me that it was more for the idea that it actually happened at all than what came out of Operation Lightning.
JANE ARRAF, CNN SR. BAGHDAD CORRESPONDENT: That's pretty well it, Candy. You know, part of the problem was that the minister of the interior, Iraqi minister of interior, the minister of defense, the new guys on the block, got up and said, we're going to do some amazing thing. We're going to have 40,000 troops in Baghdad. Police and soldiers and Iraqis are going to love it, and we're going to circle the city like an iron bracelet.
Well, that turned out a little bit to be hyperbole. What did happen, though, was actually quite fascinating.
We were out on some of those overnight raids with Iraqi army, and it was so interesting watching the interaction between this fledgling Iraqi army and their American minders, essentially. At one meeting, just before a major mission, the American adviser was telling them they really should wrap up that meeting because they have to get out and start the mission, and the Iraqi general was saying, no, we've got lots of time.
So, as it was, it started 20 minutes late. But they certainly have a different way of doing things. And the Iraqis are demonstrating that they do have their own way.
BASH: Jane, I want to go back to what you just heard President Bush say in the Rose Garden, talking about how things are going OK in Iraq, the insurgency is -- is really sort of being controlled, or at least they're getting -- they're getting to that point, that the Iraqi military is being beefed up. But the president is getting some more and more pushback from Democrats, even some Republicans, about that -- those Rose Garden statements -- that they're too rosy, essentially, and that he's not really being -- leveling with the American people about what's really going on there.
You are there now, you've been there for so long. Give us some context and let us know from your perspective how things are going based on what the president says.
ARRAF: You know, it's the kind of thing you only really know unless you're out there on the streets. And just an hour ago, we were out in the city of Telafar with U.S. forces from the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment.
Now, these guys got here about three weeks ago. There are 4,000 of them, which is a dramatic increase.
They are unable to drive in Humvees in the streets of that city. They think it's too dangerous. They're going around in Bradley Fighting Vehicles. And what we're finding when we go around with them is a police force that is too afraid to leave the police station, mothers who are afraid to send their children to school, an Iraqi army that's wondering what to do about this, and tribal leaders who are saying, well, just go in and bomb these neighborhoods. It is an incredibly complicated situation that no one bargained for. And although you can point the finger and say, yes, there's progress, when you get out here -- and this is a huge part of the country -- you kind of wonder how it's all going to come together.
HAYS: And what about the split between Shia leadership and Sunni leadership at this point, particularly in this new Iraqi military?
ARRAF: That's another really interesting thing. Again, I'm just now -- you know, I've been here for years, and I'm just now realizing how complicated, intensely, immensely problematic this country really is. And what we're seeing a lot of is a lot of talk of Shia and Sunni that never existed before.
In one -- we were at one woman's home this afternoon, and she sends her kids to school occasionally, but she says she's still afraid, even though this was a Turkoman woman. And she said she saw insurgents about to launch an attack, and she went out and yelled at them.
So there are pockets of that here. But she is Shia, she's married to a Sunni.
What we are finding, though, when it comes particularly to the police and the army, is they're being very, very careful to almost have a quota system for those numbers. Some people think that it's disturbing, alarming, could lead to civil war -- some people think it's necessary.
CROWLEY: Jane, you went to this tribal meeting. And I wanted to ask you, one of the things that you hear -- and I talked to some people this week in the U.S. who said, sooner or later, the Iraqis are going to get tired of the insurgency. It's not just the U.S. against the insurgents, but there are a lot of civilians being killed.
Are you seeing any sign within the tribal meeting or any place else you've been that Iraqis are now looking around and saying, we really have to stop all of this?
ARRAF: We are. One of the amazing things was going into this meeting yesterday at an Iraqi army base where they have flown in tribal leaders, flown them in under cover of night, because these are people who have had assassination attempts on them, they've been mortared, they've been rocketed, they've had relatives killed, and they stood up and said, something has to be done about this.
Some of them said, "We know where these insurgents, these terrorists, whatever you want to call them, are. We know where their neighborhoods where there are attacks that take place, we know where there are places where there are no attacks. We can do something about this."
Now, the cost of doing something about that is extremely high. The cost of a neighbor reporting something in his neighborhood is possible loss and risk to his family. It's not quite at that turning point where you are getting enough people to drive insurgents out of the neighborhoods, but Iraqi officials and U.S. officials say they are getting more information from Iraqis.
CROWLEY: Thanks, Jane Arraf. As always, we are eternally grateful for your reports here on ON THE STORY and across the network. We will keep watching. Thanks a lot.
We are heading West now. The child sex trial of former superstar Michael Jackson is in its final phase, in the jury's hands. We're back ON THE STORY after this.
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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CROWD: Fight, Michael, fight! Fight, Michael, fight!
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CROWLEY: Michael Jackson's fans yelling, "Fight, Michael, fight," as the lengthy legal drama enters the final act this week.
Welcome back. We are ON THE STORY.
And giving us a front row seat to the Jackson trial is "Newsweek's" national correspondent, Allison Samuels in Los Angeles.
Allison, it strikes me that we are at that point in a trial where all we have are questions and you can't possibly have any answers. How long are they going to stay out? How are they going to decide? But try to give us a sense of the feel in the halls of the courthouse and what people are saying.
ALLISON SAMUELS, "NEWSWEEK": You know, over the last couple of days, and certainly since Friday, many people I know who are around the case feel that it will go a couple days. I mean, I think everybody sort of assumes that we will get a verdict by the end of the week. Some people feel like it will be a little earlier than that, possibly Tuesday.
But I think everybody feels that with the conspiracy charges it won't be that difficult, but the molesting, you know, charges will be where the jurors will probably have their longest sort of negotiations. And there's -- therein lies why they're not really sure if it will be the entire week.
HAYS: And Allison, on the conspiracy charge is the idea that there was a point where the Jackson people kind of forced this young man and his mother to come back to Neverland.
SAMUELS: Right.
HAYS: You're saying that that's probably a slam dunk, he won't be guilty on that. But tell us more about the molestation charge. What is the -- what do the jurors have to be convinced of? Whose veracity? Who die do they have to believe?
SAMUELS: Well, I think they have to believe this young kid, particularly, according to everyone, the tape that appeared last week in closing arguments of the child when he was 13 talking to the police, from all indications was very, very touching and was very believable. And this is from both Michael's camp and the prosecution.
So I think that becomes tough, because prior to that I think the defense had done a pretty good job in making the entire family seem a little shady, portraying the mother as very much an opportunist, and also somewhat the child, you know, with the J.C. Penney situation, telling lies to get things and to get money. I think the prosecution -- you know, the defense had done a really good job in sort of making that something where you go, OK, I'm not sure about this, this could really just be a shakedown.
But then you saw the tape with the child, with his mother not around, sounding very childlike, sounding like a child who had been harmed and mentally damaged by something that had happened to him. And I think, you know, a juror will have to probably take extra time to think about that.
BASH: You talk about the defense's closing arguments, but what about the prosecution closing arguments? What did they say? What was sort of their big picture point that perhaps could have hit home the most with the jurors?
SAMUELS: I think they were able on a very -- in a subtle way to sort of make the point that Michael has been here before. And I think that's a lasting sort of thought to sort of leave the jurors with, because, you're -- you know, I'm sure they've been instructed that only so much of that could actually get in. But the judge did allow for the prosecution to be able to mention, you know, that there have been past incidents.
And I just think with that being the case, that leaves the jurors with a whole -- I would hate to be a juror on this case just because I think it so easily could go either way from the standpoint of Michael with his weird behavior and weird background to the aspect of the parents, with their equally suspicious background. I think this is probably the worse-case scenario for a juror.
CROWLEY: Allison, tell us about the defendant himself and his health, his demeanor.
SAMUELS: He -- as you know, he's supposedly did go to the hospital on Thursday night. His people have been sort of hesitant to sort of talk about what was wrong, but my sources say dehydration, severe anxiety attacks.
And if you look at him, if you look at the way he was on Friday in court, it's clear he lost several pounds. And you have to say "several," because I don't think he had many pounds, you know, sort of to lose. So even a pound is a tremendous sort of, you know, look -- looks for him.
He was just -- not horrible looking, but it was really frightening watching him go into the courtroom on Friday. And I think his family is concerned about him. I think everyone around him is concerned about him, because he's sort of gradually falling down into this sort of place where I don't think he can be reached. I think that is what the family is concerned about.
HAYS: Allison, and I'm sure the concern is that if he is sent to prison, that this -- that he's in a very bad condition for starters. What kind of jail time is he facing if convicted on molestation charges?
SAMUELS: I mean, he can do up to 20 years, if not more, depending on some of the other charges, which, you know, like I said, I'm not sure that the conspiracy charge will stick, nor of giving alcohol to a minor. But for the molesting charge, molestation charge, he can actually do up to 20 years.
And I know his friends and family feel he, you know, will basically just lose it if that happens. They don't see him getting through that at all.
BASH: Allison Samuels, thank you very much. We look forward to your reports in "Newsweek," and particularly as you report this coming week, as we expect to get some kind of verdict from the jury.
And we're back ON THE STORY right after this.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANNOUNCER: The runaway bride can't escape the law. "What's Her Story" now? More when we return.
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(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANNOUNCER: Jennifer Wilbanks. "What's Her Story" now?
A judge sentenced Georgia's runaway bride's this week to two years' probation and 120 hours of community service for lying to police. Wilbanks skipped town April 26, four days before her wedding, and later told police she was kidnapped and assaulted. Once investigators determined she lied, Wilbanks confessed to a case of cold feet.
JENNIFER WILBANKS, RUNAWAY BRIDE: Your Honor, I'm truly sorry for my actions. And I just want to thank Gwinnett County and the city of Duluth for all their efforts. That's all.
ANNOUNCER: She paid her home town $13,000, a fraction of the search cost. In court, Wilbanks was accompanied by her fiance and wearing an engagement ring.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY: The headline for many of us here at CNN this week was the departure of anchor and correspondent and friend Judy Woodruff. We call in our business -- when you say something nice about somebody on the air, we call it a valentine. So here is my valentine to Judy.
You know, she was our canary in the cave. She went in where no one had gone before to breathe the air. She was at the White House, one of the first correspondents there. You know, steadily paved the way for all of us, while being a terrific mother of three and raising three kids, and, for heaven's sakes, being married to Al Hunt.
So, you know, Judy, I can't give you valentines enough.
BASH: And the amazing thing is, like some other people who are sitting here, she was always the person, the kind of person who would turn around and look back and say, "Who else is coming up? How can I help you?" That's what she did to me -- for me, for sure. And that was really what...
HAYS: Great professional lady.
BASH: Yes.
CROWLEY: We can go on forever.
Thanks to my colleagues. And thank you for watching ON THE STORY. We will be back next week.
Up next on CNN, a special one-hour town hall edition of "RELIABLE SOURCES" about the 30-year secret of Deep Throat.
Straight ahead, a check on what's making news right now.
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