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CNN Wolf Blitzer Reports

What Will the Remaining Taliban and Al Qaeda Fighters Do?

Aired December 11, 2001 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: (AUDIO GAP) The Pentagon warns, it's not over.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: We all know that a wounded animal can be dangerous.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: We'll go live to Afghanistan and the Pentagon.

Will Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda loyalists surrender? I'll ask Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Richard Shelby, strategist Eliot Cohen of Johns Hopkins University, and retired General Wesley Clark, CNN military analyst and former NATO supreme commander, as we go into the WAR ROOM.

Good evening. I'm Wolf Blitzer reporting tonight from Washington. The search for Osama bin Laden and his key lieutenants as well as for the Taliban leaders has taken a new and dramatic turn. Tonight Afghan troops allied with the United States have set a deadline of 10:30 p.m. Eastern, about three and a half hours from now.

Their demand to the Taliban and al Qaeda is simple: surrender or die.

We'll have details shortly, but first a quick check of the latest developments in the U.S. war against terrorism.

Three months to the day after the September 11 terror attacks the federal government filed its first criminal indictment directly tied to the case. Zacarias Moussaoui, a French citizen, is charged with conspiring to commit acts of terrorism and murder in association with Osama bin Laden's terror network.

Four of the six counts carry the death penalty.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN ASHCROFT, ATTORNEY GENERAL: The indictment issued today is a chronicle of evil, a carefully documented, year by year, month by month, day-by-day account of a terrorist conspiracy that gathered both force and intensity in the weeks before September 11. (END VIDEO CLIP)

Three months to the minute after the start of those attacks the nation and the world paid tribute to the victims. Hundreds of police and firefighters joined the ceremony at New York's ground zero, while at the damaged Pentagon, the defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, said U.S. forces are teaching Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda, quote, "a lesson."

And in Afghanistan time may be running out for al Qaeda forces at Tora Bora in eastern Afghanistan. Anti-Taliban fighters, backed by U.S. air support, pounded the mountain stronghold, pushing its defenders away from the base. And anti-Taliban forces gave al Qaeda an ultimatum: simply put, surrender or die. They set a deadline of 8 a.m. Wednesday morning Afghan time, 10:30 p.m. Eastern time tonight here in the United States.

CNN's Christiane Amanpour is live in Kandahar and she has details of all the late developments -- Christiane.

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, the new interim governor and new interim leader of Afghanistan is vowing, come what may, to put an end to terrorism. And it appears that perhaps the end of the al Qaeda, at least in this stage, may in sight. We are not at all sure about the confirmation about the so-called surrender terms, but the Eastern Alliance, the group of anti-Taliban forces, which have been helping on the ground pound the Tora Bora cave complex, are now saying they had a face-to-face meeting with representatives of the al Qaeda network who have been holed up there for several week now.

They say they had that meeting on Tuesday, and that they told them they had a deadline of this morning Afghan time, as you mentioned, to lay down their arms or face continued heavy U.S. air assault. As I said, the Pentagon says that it has no confirmation of that, and that its air campaign will continue.

But a complex was captured today by the eastern alliance forces, and journalists were able to see some of the caves and a big part of the complex there. They found a lot of ammunition strewn around. There were bodies. They also found weights in a weight room and targets for target practice.

According to some journalists, evidence that there may have been training going on there. We also know that according to the Eastern Alliance fighters, many of the al Qaeda people have escaped from there and are believed now to be heading away from the region toward Pakistan. For its part, Pakistan is trying to step up the border patrols and to make sure that no al Qaeda or other suspects move into its territory.

On the diplomatic front, as I said, the new interim leader of Afghanistan is vowing to step up his efforts to make sure that terrorism ends in this country, that this country no longer remains a safe haven or a sanctuary for terrorists. He is about to go to the capital, Kabul, to talk to officials there, including the senior U.N. official about the future makeup of this government and procedures to set this government in place on December 22 -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Christiane, assuming they don't surrender, the al Qaeda and Taliban forces, what is the sense in Afghanistan right now, how much longer can they hold out?

AMANPOUR: Well, the feeling is that the last few weeks, in fact, the last few months have shown, that very, slowly but surely these pockets of resistance are being wiped out. For instance in Kandahar we were told over the weekend during the handover of this city, that there were several hundred al Qaeda members holed up and surrounded by anti-Taliban forces. We weren't allowed to get near it -- we didn't see it, but we heard from people here, that that pocket of resistance has been wiped out. They told us all the people had been killed.

We are not sure, but what we have seen on the ground is that slowly but surely these pockets are being wiped you. The question is, where do the al Qaeda people go? That's a main concern, not just for the U.S., but also for the people on the border in Pakistan, for instance, and indeed in Kandahar we are told that some of the Arab mercenaries, some of the former Taliban have melted into the population and those are being hunted down.

BLITZER: Still a very volatile situation. Christiane Amanpour, thank you very much. And this note: Christiane will have much more at the top of the hour in her SPECIAL REPORT, LIVE FROM AFGHANISTAN.

Meanwhile, while Afghanistan's Eastern Alliance fighters have gained significant ground against al Qaeda diehards, U.S. air power has cleared way. Let's go live to our military affairs correspondent, Jamie McIntyre. He is over at the Pentagon with more -- Jamie.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, at the Pentagon they are a little concerned about what is going to happen with this supposed surrender ultimatum that is out there pending over the next several hours. But meanwhile, the Pentagon is turning its focus on trying to everything it can to prevent Taliban or al Qaeda leaders, in particular Osama bin Laden, from escaping Afghanistan.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(voice-over): On Sunday the U.S. dropped its biggest conventional bomb, a 15,000 pounder designed to clear landing zones on a concentration of al Qaeda fighters dug in near a cave near Tora Bora, where Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: No cave is deep enough to escape the patient justice of the United States of America.

MCINTYRE: U.S. special forces have gotten a close-up look of the aftermath of the powerful blast, and report it devastated an area of several hundred meters.

GEN. RICHARD MYERS, JOINT CHIEFS CHAIRMAN: Our affect was to kill al Qaeda.

QUESTION: What did your people on the ground see? MYERS: Dead al Qaeda.

MCINTYRE: With at least some besieged al Qaeda forces near Tora Bora now contemplating a surrender ultimatum, the Pentagon is worried about sealing the border to prevent Osama bin Laden and other wanted men from escaping.

DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: It's a very complicated area to try to seal and there is just simply no way to put a perfect cork in the bottle.

MCINTYRE: Pentagon sources say several U.S. AC-130 gun ships are now patrolling near Afghanistan's border with Pakistan aided by unmanned spy planes. And Pakistan has reinforced its side of the border as well. But the U.S. has reports that some Taliban in Kandahar are trying to bribe their way to freedom.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

Pentagon officials tonight report more battlefield success is near Tora Bora with al Qaeda forces losing ground in the face of offensives from two separate opposition groups under two commanders. The reports say that the al Qaeda, the last of the al Qaeda are being pushed back in the Agram (ph) and Wazir (ph) valleys with the help of U.S. special forces who are calling in punishing airstrikes -- Wolf.

BLITZER: So, Jamie, I take it that in advance of this deadline, there has been really no letup in the U.S. airstrikes?

MCINTYRE: No. Somebody in the Pentagon asked today about a cease-fire. And the Pentagon has said that they don't believe in cease-fires at this point. They are waiting to see what happens with the ultimatum, but those two different opposition commanders are still battling against al Qaeda forces in the valley. The as Qaeda have pretty much lost the high ground and are surrounded in a very disadvantageous position. So, the Pentagon is waiting to see if in fact any of these fight-to-the-death fighters will decide to, at the last moment, go ahead and surrender.

BLITZER: Jamie McIntyre from the Pentagon. Thank you very much.

Surrender or die. That is the ultimatum facing al Qaeda fighters cornered in the mountains of Tora Bora. The deadline as we have been reporting, three and a half hour from now, actually a little less.

Joining me now in the CNN WAR ROOM: Senator Richard Shelby. He is the vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. CNN military analyst and former NATO supreme allied commander, Retired General Wesley Clark, and Eliot Cohen, an expert in strategy and military power at the Johns Hopkins University school of advanced international studies, which happens to be my alma mater.

Remember, you can e-mail your WAR ROOM questions. Just go to my Web site, cnn.com/wolf. That's also, by the way, where you can find my daily column.

Let me go right to Senator Shelby.

What do you think these al Qaeda force are going to do facing this ultimatum?

SEN. RICHARD SHELBY (R), INTELLIGENCE CMTE.: I don't know what they are going to do, but looking at their precarious situation, I believe they should surrender. They might do the opposite and continue to fight, but time is not on their side.

BLITZER: General Clark, what do you think?

GEN. WESLEY CLARK (RET.), FMR. NATO SUPREME COMMANDER: I always go on rule of thirds: One-third will surrender, one-third will fight, and one-third'll sneak out.

BLITZER: Eliot?

ELIOT COHEN, JOHN'S HOPKINS UNIVERSITY: My guess is that actually a fair number will get away. But, you know, the really -- it seems to me -- the critical issue is that we not think that this is the end of al Qaeda. It may be the end of al Qaeda in Afghanistan, but as it's pointed out, this is an outfit that has its elements in about 60 different countries. We know that they've planned the things that they have done years ahead. So I think the safe assumption is there are cells of al Qaeda all over the place. And we may not have seen the last from them.

BLITZER: I want to put up on the map, and where going to get to those cells in just a few moments. But if we put up a map of where these -- the ultimatum has been given, if you take a look, over here in eastern Afghanistan, this Tora Bora area. Right alongside the border with Pakistan, someplace that presumably, as Eliot says, Senator, some of them could slip away.

SHELBY: Well, if you accept General Clark's premise, and we have no argument with him, he's got a lot of experience here. If a third slip away, we are going to have deep problems down the road. They will surface again in some form. What we have got to do is contain them, if we can. If they do slip away, hunt them down.

BLITZER: General Clark, Bob from Superior, Colorado, e-mailed us this question: "If Osama bin Laden does manage to escape and if we manage to track him to his new 'hideout,' do you feel that the U.S. will be as aggressive in getting him from that country, as we've been in Afghanistan?"

CLARK: I think we'll be even more aggressive. American power has proved now. We have taught lessons, not only to al Qaeda, but we've taught lessons to a lot of people watching us around the world. We'll go get him.

BLITZER: You mentioned, Eliot, that al Qaeda has cells all over the world and many countries -- some have said, 50, 60, 70 countries. We have a map some of the places that -- there's been widespread speculation where either Osama bin Laden or other of his key lieutenants, perhaps even Mullah Omar could escape. And if we take a look over here, there's been wide speculation about Chechnya, for example, which is across the border -- not too far away, or Sudan or Somalia.

What are the most realistic options, where if he could, he might wind up, and the U.S. might find itself in another military operation?

COHEN: Well, I think he's going to be looking for a place where there isn't much of a government. And the truth of the matter is, wherever he goes it's going to be a lot more difficult for him than Afghanistan was -- he a friendly government. After what's just happened to the Taliban, no government is going to want to protect this guy. But the real issue is that you've got these cells, which are semi-autonomous, which have already done the preparatory work that they've done. As I've said, you know, they took years to plan the attack on the Cole, they took years to plan the attack on the embassies. They took years to plan September 11. So what we have to worry about is the people whose names we don't know.

BLITZER: Senator Shelby, the so-called sleeper cells, that are out there -- they may be in New Jersey, or Michigan, or California -- or in Alabama, you're home state, how worried should the American public be right now?

SHELBY: I think the American people should be alert, but not panicky. We are doing well, at the moment, but there could be a surprise here and there. We've been put on alert by top people in our government several times. I'm sure we will be begin, and there could be a surprise, but if a third of the people of the al Qaeda get away, they will resurface somewhere, if we don't hunt them down. We've got to get them, we've got to extinguish this group.

BLITZER: U.S. military -- this is a new mission, to a certain degree for the military, your generation, of course, was trained to fight a cold war against the old Soviet Union. This is a whole new ball game.

CLARK: Well, we've built up the counter-terrorist force really after the desert war in 1980. And we've got a lot of guys, like General Wayne Downing and others who've spent their entire professional lives developing the ability to track down people, and go after them. So in reality, we're back to a more familiar face now we've split apart their support. We've gotten rid of their support base in what was supposed to be the toughest sanctuary in the world. And now wherever they go, we've been there. We're probably already there in many of these places, and we may welcome them when they arrive.

BLITZER: Here's a question, Eliot, from Mark in Toronto Heights, Pennsylvania: "If bin Laden escapes from Afghanistan, do you think he'll make a run for Iraq?"

COHEN: I doubt that the Iraqis will take him, because I think they know that their in the crosshairs. And they would like to avoid him. This doesn't mean we should not go after Iraq, we probably should at some point, exactly when remains to be determined. But the key thing, here is -- I think -- we'll focus a lot on Osama bin Laden. I certainly hope we'll get him. I'd rather not have him taken prisoner, but be finished off somewhere, but even if that happens that doesn't mean this is over, not by a longshot.

BLITZER: Let's have an e-mailer for you, Senator Shelby, Peggy in Glencoe, Illinois: "What kind of strategy allowed Mullah Omar, the spiritual leader of the Taliban, to escape -- why wasn't he surrounded? Do you think Karzai -- Hamid Karzai, the new leader for six months of Afghanistan -- allowed Omar to escape?

SHELBY: Well, I don't know if he allowed him to escape, but the conditions on the surrender of Kandahar, was porous to say the least. I don't know what kind of deals they have in the tribe -- the tribal groups there, but it was too easy.

BLITZER: And that raises a question, Senator Shelby, how good is U.S. intelligence here. You're a former chairman now the vice chairman of the Intelligence Committee, at this point, three months after September 11, to the day, how good is the intelligence on what's happening, on the ground, in Afghanistan.

SHELBY: I believe our intelligence of what's happening now, in a fluid situation, in Afghanistan is good and it will get better every day as our troops move. General Clark can speak to that well, because as you move and you capture cities, you capture areas, you learn a heck of a lot on the ground.

CLARK: That's exactly right. We are going through documents, we're talk to people. We've got people now, no doubt, coming up and saying I was never Taliban, but let me tell you this about them. And that's going all be part of the record, and we'll be following these people. It's very important, if we get some people surrendering tomorrow that we interrogate those people instantly. We bring that information to bear and run them down. Because if a third do try to get away, you know, it's our mission not to let them get away.

BLITZER: You did a post-mortem on the Gulf War, the effectiveness of the U.S. military strikes at that time. How is the U.S. military doing right now, as far as you can tell?

COHEN: Well, this is a phenomenal achievement, you know, the idea that we would take this surprise punch, and then within a couple months be operating in Afghanistan of all places. And not just operating, but operating extraordinarily successfully, it's amazing. I would point to really three things -- that are striking about it; first is our intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance -- those unmanned aerial vehicles, those have all developed tremendously since Gulf War. I think, second, a kind of hidden asset that people didn't realize that we had, the special operation forces, those are just extraordinary people. And --

BLITZER: And they were always the step child of the U.S. military.

COHEN: Absolutely. And it will be interesting to see what happens, after this war is over, whether attitudes towards specials operations change, whether they get a different kind of budget that they used to have. Whether their increased in size, that makes a big difference. And third thing is weaponry. The Gulf War, you know, we were not routinely using precision-guided weapons. We didn't have weapons that you can drop through bad weather. Well, now we have that, and you've really seen extraordinary effectiveness. With each of these wars, and I'm sure General Clark remembers this, there are people saying air power can't do very much, well air power in conjunction with smart people on the ground can actually do an enormous amount.

BLITZER: Let me ask General Clark. Has -- there a greater respect now for special operations forces in the hierarchy of the U.S. military than used to be the case? Because in the old days, as you know, that was a fast track to nowhere.

CLARK: We always respected them, at least after the Vietnam period. They are a phenomenal group of people, they've done great things before this and no one is surprised, who knows them, that they've done a great job here. It has been phenomenal. It's what we could have done in other operations. The difference here is we are talking about strategy between, let's say, this operation in Kosovo -- it's not only the technology here, but the fact that we do have eyes on the ground and we did work with the local people here in a way we didn't in the Kosovo campaign. And so that let air power be even more effective. And I think that's the real answer, it's a combination of air and people on the ground that makes it work.

BLITZER: Stand by, we've got a lot more to talk about. When we come back, one of our guests has seen it and calls it a smoking gun. What will be the impact of the latest bin Laden videotape? Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back.

Tomorrow we all may see what the Senate Intelligence Committee vice-chairman has already seen, Richard Shelby, that videotape of which Osama bin Laden purportedly boasts about the September 11 terrorists attacks. Senator Shelby, you have already seen it and you want the administration to release it.

SHELBY: I do, but I believe we should leave that up to the administration as to the timing. They are the policy makers. I think President Bush, Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz and Vice President Cheney have spoken about it at large. I have seen the tapes. But we have to protect our sources and methods. If we can do that and release the tape to the people of the world, I think it's the smoking gun.

BLITZER: And it's -- what you have seen, there's no doubt, he gloats, he brags. He is happy. He confesses, in effect, to being behind the September 11 attack?

SHELBY: Absolutely. And it's a sad state of affairs when you see someone gloating as joyful in what happened on September 11. This is damnable evidence against Osama bin Laden. BLITZER: Eliot Cohen, is it going to make a difference among those who simply don't believe the United States?

COHEN: No, I don't think so. I mean, I think if -- when you are talking about the Middle East, there are people who believe in all kinds of conspiracy theories. They won't be reassured. And we just have to accept that.

BLITZER: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) simply believe those in the Arab world, the Muslim world, elsewhere around the world, that this is all just more propaganda, a trick by the United States.

CLARK: Well, I think that's one of the hesitations the administration has had in letting it this come out, because they know it will be controversial.

BLITZER: The editorial, Senator Shelby, in today's "New York Times": The White House debate over how to handle the tape wouldn't be necessary if the administration hadn't tried to stifle the broadcast of earlier bin Laden videos and the publication of transcripts of those statements.

What's different between this videotape and the earlier Al Jazeera videotapes that the White House didn't want us to broadcast?

SHELBY: I believe earlier tapes were propaganda and perhaps messages, you know, that were contrived to get out. I believe that the tape that the president, the vice president and this senator and others have been talking about was a tape made for internal use. It was not made to get out.

BLITZER: Is there a big difference, Eliot Cohen?

COHEN: I'm not so sure. I think it's a good idea for the American people to understand what we are dealing with and what motivates the people that we are opposed to. I mean, there's a part of me that would like the American people to see the poison that is out there on stations like Al Jazeera and to understand that this is a war.

BLITZER: Is that your sense as well?

CLARK: Well, I think it's very important that this kind of evidence be released to the world because what we're struggling with here is not only the use of military, but the use of ideas. We have got to persuade people around the world, and there are a lot of people who are sort of halfway persuaded, even among some of our allies. People aren't quite sure what all this was about. And let's gets all the facts out there. We have got to nothing to hide here. We ought to show it all.

BLITZER: Senator Shelby, you -- this is three months to the day since September 11, a little bit more than two months since the U.S. launched the first air strikes. You have been impressed in leadership over at the Pentagon, per se, in making a difference on the battlefield. Tell us why. SHELBY: Well, I think it starts with the secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz. They are committed to winning this war. They are looking nowhere else. They are not looking back. They are not looking at the political equation. It's real, real tough leadership over there and America is going to be better because of it.

BLITZER: You sense a difference as well, haven't you.

CLARK: Oh, I think you've got a guy over there who really takes charge. He's a risk taker. He's also a man who takes responsibility. He seeks responsibility and he makes decisions.

BLITZER: Eliot, does that make it easier for the troops to fight?

COHEN: Oh, much easier. But more importantly, it makes it easier for the generals. I mean, generals want to be led same as the troops do. And they have to be led. And that's exactly what Secretary Rumsfeld is doing. I wouldn't want to put General Clark on the spot, but there is a very stark contrast between what you are seeing now and what you said you saw in the war that he had to fight.

BLITZER: In the interest of full disclosure, the deputy defense secretary, your former boss, Paul Wolfowitz, the dean at SAIS, School of Advanced International Studies.

COHEN: True, but professors rarely say nice things about deans. So I have to be honest.

(LAUGHTER)

BLITZER: Thank you very much, Eliot Cohen, Senator Shelby, General Clark, appreciate it.

And a message about missiles: Just ahead, the Bush administration signals a new determination to pursue a controversial defense strategy.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back. Here's a quick look at the latest developments.

President Bush plans to notify Russia soon that the United States will withdraw from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Russian officials tell CNN the U.S. has already signaled its intentions. The U.S. has tested elements of a proposed missile defense shield which President Bush says is needed to guard against an attack by a rogue state or terror group. This speech today, the president said the ABM Treaty was written in a different era for a different enemy.

As we've been reporting, the deadline is approaching, an ultimatum issued to battered al Qaeda fighters holed up in the Tora Bora mountains. Anti-Taliban forces gave the al Qaeda troops until 10:30 p.m. Eastern time tonight to surrender or die. The White House led the nation in remembering the victims of the September 11 terrorist attacks. President Bush began with a memorial at the exact moment when the first hijacked plane hit the World Trade Center three months ago today. More than 80 countries paused to remember the attacks.

And that's all the time we have tonight. Please join me again tomorrow twice at both 5:00 and 7:00 p.m. Eastern. Until then, thanks very much for watching. I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington. "CROSSFIRE" begins right now.

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