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CNN Wolf Blitzer Reports
Osama bin Laden Speaks Out; Does Shoe Bomb Suspect Have Ties to al Qaeda?
Aired December 26, 2001 - 17:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Now on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS, "America Strikes Back."
After weeks of silence, word from Osama bin Laden, on what's said to be a new videotape.
Does shoe bomb suspect, Richard Reid, have ties to al Qaeda? Were there warning signs?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And it became clear to us that he was learning the more extreme and unacceptable views, regarding jihad and islam.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: And a face-off between nuclear neighbors. Will the U.S. be forced to take sides?
Hello, I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington. It's been some time since we've heard from Osama bin Laden. But this afternoon CNN has received part of a videotape of bin Laden through the Arab news network, Al- Jazeera. As usual, bin Laden's location is secret. And the timing is unclear as well. For what it's worth, bin Laden says the recording occurred about three months after the terror attacks on New York and Washington. That would be about December 11th, if the claim is accurate.
There is something about the tape that immediately caught our attention. The left-handed bin Laden gestures frequently with his right hand, but not at all with his left. In fact, his left arm seems never to move. It may be worth considering, as we view these excerpts.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OSAMA BIN LADEN, AL QAEDA LEADER (through translator): After three months since the attacks, the blessed attacks that took place against the head of the snake, the United States, and after two months since the crusader campaign started against Islam, we would like to speak on some of the implications of those incidents. They condemn terror. We say our terror against America is blessed terror, in order to put an end to suppression.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: For more on all of this, our terrorism expert, Peter Bergen, author of "Holy War, Inc." You actually interviewed Osama bin Laden. As we look at this videotape, what comes to your mind? You've studied him for years.
PETER BERGEN, TERRORISM EXPERT: Well, he continues to look -- he is much older than someone who's 44 should look like. His beard is now almost completely white. But we've seen that in the past videotapes. But if you look at videotapes a year ago, he was really in much better shape. But, I mean, for running around the Afghan mountains, avoiding daisy cutters, that certainly ages one.
BLITZER: And if you take a look at the outfit, the gun, the headdress, all of that is typical Osama bin Laden, right?
BERGEN: Yeah. And the small rifle, which never leaves his side, is always there.
BLITZER: And the fact that he's gesturing with his right hand, even though, as you know, he's a lefty. What does that mean, if anything?
BERGEN: I'm not sure. I think when we see more of the tape tomorrow, I think it may be clearer. After all, we're only seeing an excerpt right now.
BLITZER: Al-Jazeera ran about 5 minutes of the excerpt, and we're looking at this excerpt right now. They say they're going to run the whole 30-minute tape tomorrow. But in the excerpt, we did see him gesturing with his right hand, I guess, presumably, maybe his left arm could be injured, if, in fact, he's not moving it at all. We'll watch that very closely, obviously.
He says on the videotape that it was done around December 11, three months after the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. And he backs it up with some information that presumably would indicate that he may have been alive at that time.
BERGEN: Well, he said a couple of kind of confusing things. He says three months after the attacks on New York, and two months after the beginning of the American strikes against Afghanistan. But then later, he says references to an attack on a base in Khost, in eastern Afghanistan, in a mosque. And that attack actually took place in mid- November. He also mentions a man called Jalali Khani (ph), who was a fairly senior Taliban figure who survived that attack.
But -- and he says that happened a few days ago. So it seems to me this is rather confusing. Because if you take the second time reference, that will put it in late November. If you take the two earlier time references, that would put it in mid-December. So I think it's quite ambiguous when the tape was taken.
BLITZER: The thrust of his message, though, was consistent with everything he's said earlier. Mainly, the United States is the enemy of Islam. He is still trying to win the hearts and minds of the Muslim world.
BERGEN: Well, it doesn't seem to have worked out very well. Overwhelmingly, Muslims are the people going after him, whether they're Afghans or Pakistanis. He didn't get the outpouring of popular support I think he wanted. And I think he overplayed his hand.
BLITZER: Let's take a look at some of the pictures. This is the latest videotape Al-Jazeera ran, about an hour and a half or so ago. But we have some other pictures of Osama bin Laden that were taken earlier. You can see it over here. Do you see any discernible, any visible difference between the way he looked in early October and this earlier videotape, and way he looks now, presumably, at least as of two weeks ago?
BERGEN: I don't think there's a huge difference. I mean, he's wearing almost exactly the same clothes. His beard may be just -- well, his beard is maybe a little whiter now with this more recent videotape. But I think it's very much the same bin Laden we saw on October 7.
BLITZER: Do you get the sense that this is a man -- if you read carefully, the translation of what he says, is a man who's desperate right now?
BERGEN: I don't -- I don't get that impression. I mean, I think that bin Laden is firmly convinced that God is on his side and everything he is doing is correct. So that doesn't usually lend itself to a desperate frame of mind.
Unfortunately, God doesn't usually decide -- you know, to make people like bin laden on their side. But I think bin Laden really does believe that. And that's one of the reason why he's willing to kill so many people.
BLITZER: Because he's 100 percent convinced what is he doing is justified. If you'll also take a look at what you know has been going on in Tora Bora over the last couple weeks there, heavy U.S. bombing. If he were alive then, and made this videotape two weeks ago, it doesn't necessarily mean he is alive right now.
BERGEN: No, as Tommy Franks and various other people and Musharraf have said, it's possible he's dead. Or it's possible he is in Pakistan. I believe that he's probably still in Afghanistan.
BLITZER: Why do you believe that?
BERGEN: I think he just knows that country so well. And if you look at the history of Pakistan's relation to the United States, Pakistan has been quite helpful in terms of extraditing people, like Ramsi Yousef, the mastermind of the first bombing of the Trade Center, Mira al-Qamsi (ph), who shot up the CIA in 1995.
So Pakistan wouldn't have a moment's hesitation, in terms of handing over bin Laden to the United States. And in fact, bin Laden has issued statements against Pakistan. In the last six to eight weeks, he issued a statement saying the Pakistan government was not Islamic. So he really changed his tune. Musharraf's government, the military dictator of Pakistan, has really been quite aggressive in going after al Qaeda.
BLITZER: Is there a sense that this terrorist mastermind had an escape evasion plan in place that would allow him to continue to operate from some secret location inside Afghanistan?
BERGEN: I think two things. First of all, we know that bin Laden underestimated how successful the attack on the Trade Center was. So he may have underestimated the American response. And he may not have understood it was going to be so overwhelming. On the other hand, he's also a rather diabolically smart guy, and underestimating him has proven to be a mistake in the past. So presumably, someone who is quite smart might have an exit strategy of some kind. What it is, I don't know.
BLITZER: And some of his top lieutenants, presumably, are still at large with him.
BERGEN: Yes, apparently the only person that's actually been killed Mohammed Atef, the military commander. Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the No. 2 is still at large, apparently. Mullah Omar is still at large. A number of others President Bush spoke of, there are a number of other people who appear to be either at large or unaccounted for, because they're missing in action somewhere in those caves.
BLITZER: And all these other reports that we've heard, that he may have gotten on a boat someplace and escaped that way, or shown up in some you know, corner of Pakistan that the central government of President Musharraf may not have complete control over -- you tend to discount all those?
BERGEN: I tend to, because these reports have been going on for years, about how he's going to go to Chechnya, or Somalia or Yemen. And it never happened. Don't forget, that this is a country that bin Laden has been visiting on and off since 1982. He knows it pretty well. He feels comfortable there. It would be unlikely that he would leave, I think.
BLITZER: OK, Peter Bergen, the author of "Holy War, Inc." the new bestseller. Thank you very much, our CNN terrorism analyst, for joining us.
BERGEN: Thank you.
BLITZER: President Bush left Washington today for his ranch in Texas. In Crawford, CNN White House correspondent Major Garrett is trying to report on whether the president has reacted to the latest statement from Osama bin Laden. Have you gotten any reaction whatsoever yet, Major?
MAJOR GARRETT, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: No, Wolf. The White House is really a bit hand strung in this regard. First of all, it didn't expect the tape to be released. Second of all, many senior advisers are not here with the president at the Crawford ranch. Many of them are taking what the president considers to be a well deserved vacation. And they're scattered around the country. They're trying to get in touch with each other.
And what we might expect, Wolf, is what we have seen in the past when bin Laden has put out a tape. Because the Bush administration and his coalition partners have been most sensitive to reaction of that tape in the Arab speaking world, and so, in the past, have put forward former U.S. ambassador to Syria, Chris Ross, who speaks perfect Arabic, and put him forward on Al-Jazeera to respond in an official way to whatever it is that bin Laden has said in previous tapes -- that maybe, in fact, what happens this time, there is absolutely no word from advisers here at Crawford that that's what's going to happen this time.
But in the past, that has been the pattern. So that suggests something that may happen in the future. What we do know is the president is with the first lady and the first lady's mother, at the Crawford ranch. The president is here for a little bit of rest and relaxation, but also, of course, to monitor all fronts of the war on terrorism and prepare for what promises to be a difficult legislative year in that election year of Congress. Plus, also begin the first drafting of his "State of the Union" address, due in late January -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Major Garrett in Crawford, Texas with the president. Thank you very much.
Joining us now to talk more about the Osama bin Laden rumors, the Osama bin Laden videotape, and much more, the former NATO supreme allied commander, General Wesley Clark. He, of course, is now a CNN military analyst.
You have seen, like all of us, General Clark, this little excerpt from the latest Osama bin Laden tape. What is your sense?
GEN. WESLEY CLARK (RET), FMR. NATO SUPREME COMMANDER: My sense is that he made it, he made it under pressure, but it's not clear where he is today.
BLITZER: But do you believe it looks like a real, an authentic tape, not some phony doctored tape, that was made perhaps weeks or months ago?
CLARK: It looks real to me.
BLITZER: And did he get the sense -- did you get the sense just watching the brief excerpt, that we ran -- that this is an Osama bin Laden who is on the run, or he's still sort of confident that he's got a job to do?
CLARK: I think this is an Osama bin Laden who is down but not out. And he is trying to rally support. He's trying to put the best face on his current position. And he is hoping people will rally to him and support him. BLITZER: A lot of viewers, a lot of people who e-mail me around the world, they say, look, the United States military got the job done, together with the allies, including the anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan. There's a new government in place, the Taliban has been effectively destroyed. Al Qaeda is on the run. Why is it so hard to find Osama bin Laden?
CLARK: Well, we always knew. And everyone always warned in the public about the difficulty of going after one man, and the danger of letting this campaign focus on one man. It's a needle in a haystack. And he may well be dead. He may be in one of those caves there. He may have been caught out in the open. He may have been hit by a bomb and blown to pieces. We may never find this guy.
On the other hand, he may have escaped. And as Peter Bergen said, he may be hiding in Afghanistan somewhere, in a safe area where his money offsets the $25 million reward that the United States government is offering.
BLITZER: It now looks like the U.S. Marines are not going to necessarily go in that Tora Bora area and search cave by cave for Osama bin Laden. Perhaps some others might get that job done. But that is a huge area with enormous dangers and difficulties, isn't it?
CLARK: It is a huge area. But I would have to guess that the reason for their not going in is that we've done a survey of the area and we must feel that it's not worth it. And that the current effort, led largely by the Northern Alliance, Eastern Alliance tribes, is working satisfactorily. It would be treasure trove of intelligence if there really were the caves that were in there with all of the documentation and the escape routes to Pakistan, and all of the things we heard in the run-up to the Tora Bora campaign.
But we've actually seen no reports of such. All of the reports we've seen of the caves are thus far shallow holes in the ground, holding ammunition and extra RPGs and so forth. And that's not really the way they were portrayed by us. We either haven't found them, or it wasn't exactly the way we thought it was.
BLITZER: If you had a sense right now -- and you know that the United States over the years has been on the lookout, manhunt, for other individuals, going back to Noriega in Panama -- how difficult right now in comparison to some other searches is this search for Osama bin Laden? You have you extensive experience, obviously, in the Balkans, and some of the alleged war criminals that the United States was looking for there.
CLARK: Any search for a specific individual will depend on people around him being disloyal. So what we've got to hope here is that there are disloyal individuals around Osama bin Laden who will, in fact, turn him in. Some friend of a friend is going to hear something and report it.
In Bosnia, we've never gotten Radovan Karadzich. Some people say that there was a lack of will. But in my experience, we never had the specific, hard intelligence that would have justified the kind of major operation that people anticipated would be required.
In the case of Noriega, he went into a specific location. He went in with a Plasencia. The Plasencia reported it and we got the word out. And of course, once you know where someone is and can you box them in, then it is a matter of time. So in this case, we need some help from people on the ground.
BLITZER: Let's get back, General Clark, to the videotape, the Osama bin Laden videotape, that Al-Jazeera aired a little while ago. We ran a brief excerpt of it as well. We are now hearing that Al- Jazeera received this videotape yesterday, received it in the mail from Pakistan. What does that say to you, if you are trying to pinpoint how it was made, when it was made, the fact that Al-Jazeera says they received it in the mail from Pakistan?
CLARK: It means there are still lines of communication from al Qaeda, out of Afghanistan, and into Pakistan. And he still has a base of support there, despite the efforts of the Musharraf government to get rid of the al Qaeda network. It's still there in Pakistan.
BLITZER: How frustrating is it to U.S. military personnel, who are now obviously on the front lines engaged in this war in Afghanistan, to take a look and see these images, these pictures of Osama bin Laden with that weapon next to him, speaking to the world, if you will?
CLARK: I don't think the military personnel who are engaged are that frustrate by this. I mean, they know this is going to be a long campaign. And no one knows really better than the military people who have been involved in the past, how difficult it is to get a single person. But I will tell you this about the United States armed forces: The people in the United States armed forces are prepared to go the duration.
Whatever country, whatever groups, whatever the future holds, they're going to be ready emotionally and with their technical confidence and all their capabilities. They're going to be able to go as long as it takes and as far as it takes to get this guy. So I think it's really a matter of maintaining patience, maintaining confidence, balance. Get the intelligence out there, work many different areas, many different avenues of information. And let's see what happens.
BLITZER: General Wesley Clark, thank you very much for joining us. We always appreciate it.
CLARK: Thank you, Wolf.
BLITZER: We'll have much more of the Osama bin Laden videotape ahead this hour. I'll talk to the defense and intelligence analyst David Isby about the tape's significance in the hunt for bin Laden.
And next, the shoe bomb suspect, Richard Reid. What's in his past that may, repeat, may, link him to al Qaeda?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BLITZER: Welcome back. It's not a fully developed image yet, but in the case of Richard Reid, some of the dots are being connected. And the shape that's emerging is that of a man who discovered mainstream Islam, then radical Islam, and may have established links to al Qaeda.
Government sources now are saying Reid probably had accomplices in his apparent attempt to detonate explosives aboard a commercial flight last weekend. As you've probably heard by now, the explosives were stashed in his shoes. The story begins in London at the mosque Reid attended, with CNN's Jim Boulden.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JIM BOULDEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The Brixton mosque in south London is on the defensive once again, admitting that a suspected terrorist in U.S. custody was a regular there. Richard Reid, known to the mosque as Abdel Rahim, is now in custody for allegedly trying to ignite an explosive device on an American Airlines flight from Paris on Saturday.
Zacarias Moussaoui, indicted for alleged involvement with the September 11 hijackers, attended the mosque in the mid 1990s. As for Reid, the mosque's leader remembers meeting a very different young London born man of British and Jamaican origin, than the one under arrest in Boston.
ABDUL HAQQ BAKER, CHAIRMAN, BRIXTON MOSQUE: He came, if I remember right, '96-'97, having just left prison. And we know that because he came to us and said it's been recommended that you are the ones who are in touch with what I've come to learn from you. He attended our Arabic classes. He was attending the five daily prayers. He was here everyday. So we got to know him relatively well. A very amicable, affable, young individual. Very street wise.
BOULDEN: Reid even got a job through the mosque selling incense outside the Brixton underground train station. But then he left for a time, and Baker says Reid started to change. He came back wearing military fatigues, like many young men in Brixton.
BAKER: It's when he started coming back to the mosque, giving a comparative view of jihad, and asking us what we thought of that. And we clearly told him this is wrong. Wherever you got this teaching, desist from seeing those people. This is an extreme view. And we would show him the correct position, with regards to jihad and Islam. Obviously, now we have seen that didn't satisfy him.
BOULDEN: Baker is not sure if Moussaoui and Reid ever met at the mosque. But the Brixton mosque is seen as moderate, and Baker says dissatisfied Muslims have go elsewhere to learn out about jihad or holy war. The south London mosque attracts mostly British-born converts to Islam. Brixton is one of London's most culturally diverse areas, and has been marked by racial incidents in the past.
Baker has warned police that there are hundreds of other young men in south London who are being influenced by the same people who allegedly changed Reid.
BAKER: The call of the extremists and their education is effective, to make an individual who we knew and didn't have any problems with, turn to what he has turned to now. And I must emphasize, our concern is how many more individuals in the other mainstream cultural mosques, have they got to.
BOULDEN: Baker says the Reid he knew was easily led, and says he is convinced that if Reid did what has been alleged, then he was sent on a trial run to see if the plan would work. And he says Reid is not the type to think of this plot on his own.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
Now, the question here of course is whether Reid knew Moussaoui, and whether they met each other at the mosque. It's just not known whether they knew each other. Their time here did overlap, Wolf. But it is not clear where they got their instructions to do what they have done -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Anybody else, Jim, coming out and talking about Mr. Reid? Anyone, any relatives, for example, that he may have in Britain?
BOULDEN: Well, CNN has learned tonight that when Reid lived in Brixton, he lived with his aunt and lived with his cousin. We have not been able to contact them yet. His mother apparently lives in southwest England. His father, who is Jamaican, we have not been able to locate. So as of now, we've heard nothing from anybody who knew him as he was growing up. The mosque here only met him in his early 20s.
BLITZER: And I take it, Jim, that all the earlier reports of some Sri Lankan connection, that Osama bin Laden is not the case.
BOULDEN: Yes, we're not sure where that came from at all. Of course, we heard he got his passport in Belgium. We don't know where that came from either. It wasn't until Monday morning, when the Brixton mosque people opened up their newspapers and saw his picture, realizing that he was British born, raised here with a very strong south London accent, came from the streets, knew Brixton very well, had jobs here. A man of mixed races, they said, British mother, Jamaican father.
The question is, living here in London, why he didn't fly out of London. That's a question investigators are very keen to find out. What took him to Paris? Was the person who allegedly was helping him based in London or based in Paris? And that, we don't know yet -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Jim Boulden, our man in London. I know you'll be on this story. Thank you very much for helping us get more information.
And another strand of the story is coming out of the Pentagon today. Sources there have told us the suspected al Qaeda members being held in Afghanistan, at least some of them, claim to recognize pictures of Reid. CNN's Kathleen Koch is standing by with that, and she has some more -- Kathleen.
KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, at this point we do not know which detainees specifically were shown Reid's pictures, whether they were some of the 17 held in Kandahar at that Marine prison there, or if they were some of the eight on board the USS Peleliu, the amphibious warship in the Arabian Sea. But apparently, some of them, upon seeing Reid's picture, said yes, that they remembered seeing him at a terrorist training camp in Afghanistan.
We haven't heard when this perhaps occurred, or which camp it was specifically. The Bush administration, though, is cautioning that at this point, they have no information to back up these claims by the detainees, who could very well be lying, and could simply be telling investigators just what they want to hear.
U.S. officials, though, are very interested in this new information, because it would be the first strand of information directly linking Reid to a terrorist organization. One senior official telling CNN that it basically opens the door really to follow that path. And it's a very interesting path right now, because investigators have found that the explosive that was in Reid's shoes apparently was very, very sophisticated, and much more sophisticated, they believe, than one individual could have come up with on his own -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Kathleen, let's shift gears back to our top story, the latest Osama bin Laden videotape. We heard our White House correspondent, Major Garrett, say there is little reaction if any, coming out of the White House. Any reaction coming out of the Pentagon?
KOCH: We spoke to the U.S. Central Command about it this afternoon. They say they have not yet had an opportunity to view this type in its entirety. So they have very little to say about it. However, obviously, the Pentagon is most interested in when and where it was shot. And they admit that that's going to be very difficult to establish. They wouldn't speak to the validity of any of Osama bin Laden's claims on the tapes, saying they believe most of them are generally fabrications.
Of course, one item, bin Laden over and over again on the tape says how much the U.S. bombing in Afghanistan proves that the U.S. and West hate Islam. And that is something of course that the Pentagon takes great issue with. Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld has been clear from the start to point out that the U.S. has no argument whatsoever with the religion of Islam, that it is terrorism that the U.S. wants to remove from Afghanistan -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Kathleen Koch at the Pentagon, thank you very much.
And an update on today's developments, including an in-depth analysis of the latest videotape of Osama bin Laden. The defense analyst David Isby will join us when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BLITZER: In just a few moments, the latest tensions between India and Pakistan, but first another quick check of the latest developments in America's new war.
CNN has received part of a tape of Osama bin Laden through the Arabic news network Al-Jazeera. It's unclear whether or when the tape was made. On several occasions, bin Laden refers to events, including the U.S. bombing of a mosque which occurred November 16. He also claims the tape is being recorded some three months after the terror attacks in New York and Washington.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OSAMA BIN LADEN, AL QAEDA LEADER (through translator): After three months since the attacks, the blessed attacks that took place against the head of the snake, and after two months since the crusader campaign started against Islam, we would like to speak on some of the implications of those incidents.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: CNN has learned that Al-Jazeera received the tape yesterday. It arrived by mail from Pakistan. We expect to see much more of it tomorrow.
The American Airlines shoe-bomb suspect may have ties to al Qaeda. Richard Reid worshipped at a mosque in London attended by a September 11 suspect. Also, Pentagon officials say al Qaeda suspects held in Afghanistan claim to recognize Reid's photograph.
Searching the caves of Tora Bora, not a job for the United States Marines Corps: In an apparent reversal of previous plans, Pentagon sources say the Marines are staying put at their bases near Kandahar. They say U.S. special forces will continue to aid Afghan militias in the dangerous cave duty.
Afghanistan's interim leader says the terrorists sheltered by the Taliban have largely been defeated. But Hamid Karzai says that pockets of terrorists still remain. He says the U.S.-led coalition should stay in Afghanistan to help root them out.
The excerpt of that videotape from Osama bin Laden shown today raises many questions about the leader of the al Qaeda network. Joining me now to discuss the bin Laden tape: David Isby, the defense policy analyst, former correspondent for "Jane's Intelligence Review."
David, thank you very much for joining us.
DAVID ISBY, DEFENSE POLICY ANALYST: Thank you.
BLITZER: You have seen the videotape. And we will show some more of it here on our screen. Is this the Osama bin Laden that you have seen in the past?
ISBY: Certainly something close to it. I'm very glad this is not what he found in the wreckage of Jalalabad, because he certainly looks less lifelike than he has in the past.
But, basically, he needs to project that "I am still alive." He needs to -- again, he restates why he is doing this. He's here to create a clash of cultures. This is restating for his supporters his war aims. He also tries to invoke stories. He selects his one Afghan supporter who probably has some name recognition internationally, Jalaluddin Haqqani, and said: See, he has been spared. I have been spared.
And he wants to draw the theological implications of that, that since they have been able to get them, "I am blessed. They are not." So I think that is perhaps one of the goals. Plus, of course, our fear of signaling. He has still got the same camouflage jacket, still the same weapon, the same -- which is a little weapon with the wrong magazine, a magazine that doesn't belong on that weapon. And those two between them may be signals.
BLITZER: But is that a traditional way that he uses that weapon over there, with the wrong magazine?
ISBY: It's his weapon. Now, whether -- when you photograph that weapon, whether it means something to al Qaeda sleeper cells -- if were you to take it away and replace it with a different weapon in the picture, or he was to wear non-camouflage like I said, that could be the signals.
BLITZER: You speculate in the past where Osama bin Laden may be. Looking at this videotape, do we learn anything new about Osama bin Laden as far as his whereabouts today are concerned?
ISBY: Certainly not his whereabouts -- certainly, again, they are more the concern of operational security. Background here is an Afghan blanket. It wasn't like the previous, the big outdoor scene, where the geologists were able to recognize the sandstone formation as being in part of Eastern Afghanistan. This could be done in a basement of a safe house, in Pakistan, in a cave somewhere.
So, by doing it this way, like I said, without any reference to time, except within a few-week window, he has sort of cut himself free. And if he going to talk some more, he is going to have to build this mystique: "I have been spared to do great things for my cause and create this culture war." So he is going to have to build on this mystique. And he still has a long ways to go to counteract what happened to his cause.
BLITZER: I want to show our viewers some contrast between this latest Osama bin Laden videotape -- and you see him raising his right hand as we are watching him right you now -- and let's show some of the earlier Osama bin Laden videotape that was done a couple months ago. You see the monitor over here. And you see the difference.
Is there much of a difference there?
ISBY: I certainly think so. This is a man who is obviously -- he was never in good health to begin with. He has had long-running health problems. And it's likely that these have been aggravated. He suffers the loss of friends and family.
Also, I suspect his usual writers aren't there to provide him with his accustomed rhetoric, so he has probably had to wing it on that account -- so, as an improvised production, certainly less effective. Plus, he doesn't have victory to back it up.
BLITZER: And very briefly, Peter Bergen seems to thinks he is still in Afghanistan someplace. What do you think?
ISBY: I will bet on Pakistan.
BLITZER: On Pakistan, not Afghanistan.
ISBY: That's right.
BLITZER: All right, we will watch and see. David Isby, thank you very much.
ISBY: You're welcome.
BLITZER: And seeing Osama bin Laden on videotape is no guarantee he is still alive today.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HAMID KARZAI, AFGHANISTAN INTERIM GOVERNMENT CHAIRMAN: We don't know where he is. We received, of course, now and then, that he may be here or there.
PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, PRESIDENT OF PAKISTAN: The bombardment of all the caves that have been conducted, there is a great possibility that he may have lost his life there. And if he does enter -- if we identify him, he will be handed over.
BLITZER (voice-over): He's alive. He is dead. He is stuck in a cave. He got out by mule, by boat, by plane. He is in Afghanistan or maybe Pakistan, or Chechnya.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I don't know where he is. I haven't heard much from him recently, which means he could be in a cave that doesn't have an opening to it anymore.
BLITZER: The truth is, the world's most wanted man seems to have vanished. That hasn't stopped the speculation, especially in the Muslim world, some theories from the Pakistani press.
"The Pakistan Observer" says bin Laden died of lung disease and was buried in mid-December in Tora Bora. Other reports say he had his own men shoot him as U.S. forces closed in on the mountain stronghold.
Here in the United States, "The Washington Times" suggests he got out through the Arabian Sea on one of al Qaeda's merchant ships. Another report says he slipped into a sympathetic region of Pakistan long before the bombs started falling on Tora Bora.
GEN. TOMMY FRANKS, COMMANDER, U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND: If he is in Pakistan, then it's only a matter of time until the Pakistanis will find him. That's my view. So it may here. And it maybe somewhere else. But it's only a matter of time before we find him.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: If Osama bin Laden is alive and fled to Pakistan, where could he be and who is helping him?
Joining us now to help us better understand this story, Karl Inderfurth, the former assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs. He is currently professor of international relations at George Washington University.
Thanks for joining us. What do you think about Osama bin Laden? Where is he right now?
KARL INDERFURTH, FORMER ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE: Well, if he in Pakistan, I think he ought to keep going, because there are a lot of Pakistani paramilitary that are looking for him. The Pakistani government has turned over terrorists to the U.S. before. They will do it again. There is a $25 million reward.
He does have sympathy in that area, in these tribal areas. But I think that he will be spotted and somebody will turn him in or somebody will kill him.
BLITZER: Are there areas in Pakistan where you say he has sympathy where the government of President Musharraf doesn't have the access, the control over those areas, that would enable him to remain at large?
INDERFURTH: The areas in the north, there is less control there. These are the so-called tribal areas. These are the ones that have been very supportive of the Taliban and sympathetic to bin Laden. But the Pakistani military and intelligence operate in those areas. And, again, they will be looking for bin Laden.
BLITZER: So you have no doubt, if he is in Pakistan, the government of President Musharraf will do everything it can to find him and capture or kill him, if you will?
INDERFURTH: No doubt.
BLITZER: What about the whole Osama bin Laden tape -- and we're showing our viewers right now -- the one that was released by Al- Jazeera today? And you see it here on our monitor.
You have studied this man for a long time. You were the highest- ranking U.S. official for a long time that had regular meetings with Taliban leaders who were harboring, protecting him. What is your sense of what we are seeing today?
INDERFURTH: Well, I never met bin Laden. Nor did I meet Mullah Omar. I met the other officials that surrounded Mullah Omar. I think this is a tape to try to send signals that he is still out there. But, again, I think his days are numbered. I think that if he has moved to Pakistan, he will be captured or killed. And so, therefore, he will be on the run. But where he is now, he could be in one of those caves dead.
BLITZER: All right, stand by. I want to get your expertise on another area as well.
Tensions, of course, continue to increase between the nuclear rivals, India and Pakistan. Both nations have been building up their military forces along their border -- the latest issue between the longtime rivals: a December suicide attack on India's parliament. India blames militants based in Pakistan. Leaders of both nations say they are prepared for the worst.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MUSHARRAF: We confront an external and internal challenge. But let me assure my countrymen that your armed forces are fully prepared and capable of defeating all challenges by the Grace of Allah.
ATAL BIHARI VAJPAYEE, INDIAN PRIME MINISTER (through translator): There is concern in many countries across the world that if there is a war between India and Pakistan, then what will happen? Their concern is but natural. We don't want war, but war is being thrust upon us.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: You spent four years in the Clinton State Department as the top official on South Asian affairs. And you saw the nuclear tensions develop between India and Pakistan. How concerned should Americans be right you now about what is going on?
INDERFURTH: Well, I think those in the region are the ones that should be most concerned. Tensions are very high because of the December 13 terrorist attack on the Indian parliament. The Indians are trying to decide how to respond, as any country would. This was an attack that, had it gone even worse, there would have been large numbers of Indian parliamentarians. Perhaps the prime minister was a target.
This could have been much worse. But, as it was, a dozen people were killed. And India much respond in some fashion.
BLITZER: In the scale of history, how serious is this current friction between India and Pakistan, because, as we all know, over 50 years, largely involving Kashmir, there has been a number of these kind of tense moments.
INDERFURTH: Well, there have been three wars and a number of times when they almost went to war. This is the almost category. I don't want to either saber-rattle or missile-rattle at this point. They are trying to see what steps can be taken to bring these terrorist groups that may be responsible for this under control. And that's what the Indians want President Musharraf to do.
BLITZER: So, where should the U.S. stand: on the one hand, the world's largest democracy, India; on the other hand, Pakistan, which has been extremely helpful to the United States in the war in Afghanistan?
INDERFURTH: The U.S. should try to be talking to both countries. It's important for the U.S. to do that. And I know that Secretary Powell is in frequent contact both with Prime Minister Vajpayee and President Musharraf. It may be necessary at some point for President Bush to get directly involved.
President Clinton did that during a cargo crisis in Kashmir in 1999. And he played a very useful role in diffusing that. So, at some point, the president may have to get involved.
BLITZER: Karl Inderfurth -- his friends call him Rick.
INDERFURTH: Yes.
BLITZER: Thanks for joining us.
INDERFURTH: Thank you, Wolf.
BLITZER: And more tensions, of course, between India and Pakistan -- tonight, here in the CNN "War Room," joining me, the former national security adviser, Samuel Berger. That's at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, 4:00 Pacific. And you can participate. Go to my Web page, CNN.com/wolf. Click on "Send Questions." I will try to get as many of those questions answered by our panel as possible. And while you are on my Web page, you can read my daily online column. Again, that is CNN.com/wolf.
After Afghanistan, what is the next front in America's war on terror? We will check in on a country where the U.S. military has operated and pulled out.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back.
As fighting in Afghanistan winds down, the United States is considering other countries to target in the war on terrorism. One country on the list: Somalia. Wracked by years of civil war, Somalia is considered a possible new headquarters for al Qaeda and maybe even a refuge for Osama bin Laden.
Here to talk about how Somalia fits into the global crackdown on terrorism is Ernest Wilson. He is a former National Security Council official.
Mr. Wilson, thank you for joining us.
So, where does Somalia fit in the war on terrorism?
ERNEST WILSON, FORMER NATIONAL COUNCIL OFFICIAL: Well, I think it plays an important role. It's right there in the neighborhood. It's right across from Saudi Arabia. As importantly, bin Laden used to live in Sudan, which is close to that country. And the bombings that took place in Kenya and in Tanzania in 1998 were the work, we think, of bin Laden. And he used Somalia as a base. So it's an area he knows well.
BLITZER: And, like Afghanistan, Somalia right now is a country that virtually doesn't even have a central government that can control the place.
WILSON: Absolutely. It is a classic failed state. The government that is in place of President Hassan barely controls the capital of Mogadishu, much less the outlying areas. So that is something, of course, that the al Qaeda network would want to find.
BLITZER: Does al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden have a network of supporters, sympathizers already in place if he wanted to escape to there?
WILSON: The evidence suggests that that is the case. Going back as far as '93, there have been al Qaeda elements in the country. And there is evidence that there are sympathizers and supporters already in place, which is why the Central Intelligence Agency has put assets in the area and has significant overflights taking place right now.
BLITZER: You served on the National Security Council in 1993, when the U.S. had an earlier encounter in Mogadishu, a very unpleasant encounter. What does that mean for the current U.S. effort?
WILSON: Well, I think that we have come a long way and we've learned a lot. Those were in the early days of the Clinton administration. Over the course of that administration and into the current one, we have learned several things. One, you have got to know what's going on the ground. Somalia is a very complicated country with many clans that one has to know.
BLITZER: Warlords, they used to...
WILSON: Warlords, absolutely. Aidid, for example, was the one who led the murder of 18 American soldiers.
In addition, we know that we have got to get collateral assets on the ground, both tanks and other kinds of material and support. We also understand that this is important to us, that after 9/11, Somalia is closer than we thought it was.
BLITZER: Aidid son's is still around, although the original Aidid is dead. Is he someone who can play a productive or a not-so- productive role?
WILSON: I think it's difficult to say at this point. He's made a lot of statements. He clearly wants to play an important role. But what he is confronting is what the United States government is confronting, is that not everyone, not every Somali, by any means, wants to have al Qaeda active in their country.
BLITZER: So, it sounds like Somalia is very much like Afghanistan. Do you envision the Bush administration going in there and using the Afghan model to go in and try to root out terrorist cells in Somalia, the way it has done in Afghanistan?
WILSON: Well, I have talked to people in the administration. And what they are saying is that they are taking precautionary measures right now. There are diplomatic measures. There are intelligence, human intelligence things that can be done.
But I think, if there were sure and hard evidence that al Qaeda was operating cells in Somalia, I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of military intervention.
BLITZER: Ernest Wilson, thanks for joining us.
WILSON: Thank you.
BLITZER: Appreciate it.
And there is one group living in Somalia that the United States is very interested in learning more about. You can get an in-depth look at that tonight, 8:00 Eastern, on "LIVE FROM AFGHANISTAN" with our own Nic Robertson.
The Channel Tunnel was reopened today about eight hours after 500 refugees in two waves rushed the French entrance, trying to head toward Britain. The tunnel was closed while an exhaustive sweep was conducted. None of the refugees made it through the 25-mile tunnel.
Torrential rains in Brazil killed at least 46 on Christmas Eve. The rain continues to fall, hampering rescue efforts and dimming hopes of finding survivors from among the 38 people who are missing.
Bush fires have forced nearly 3,000 people from their homes in Southeast Australia. About 100 fires are burning, up from about 70 on Christmas Day. Fire officials say many were caused by lightning, but suspect several were deliberately set.
We will check the "Newswire" next, including more snow -- get this -- in Buffalo. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: On our "Newswire" today: an intense search in Chicago for 16-month-old Jasmine Anderson. The child was taken from a Greyhound bus station on Christmas Eve. The child's mother says a woman with a tattoo on her neck took the child after offering the mother and her two children a ride.
Low-pressure and lake-effect snow bring the Buffalo, New York area a white Christmas with a vengeance. More than 2 feet of snow fell since Monday. As much as another foot-and-a-half could fall by tomorrow. That's a lot of snow.
Let's go to New York now and get a preview of "LOU DOBBS MONEYLINE." That begins at the top of the hour.
Jan Hopkins is filling in for Lou -- Jan.
JAN HOPKINS, "LOU DOBBS MONEYLINE": Thanks, Wolf.
Coming up tonight: Osama bin Laden calls the attacks against the United States "blessed terror." We will discuss the latest bin Laden tape and the crumbling situation between India and Pakistan with international intelligence expert George Friedman.
And on the day after Christmas, we will tell you which stores did well this season and which did not. It's all coming up at the top of the hour -- back to Wolf in Washington.
BLITZER: Thank you very much, Jan.
And I will have a final word about 10 words when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: It's been an eventful year. And that has even affected the way we talk. YourDictionary.com has a top-10 list of words from 2001. Let's go through them.
No. 10: foot-and-mouth.
No. 9, inspired by the talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Oprahization.
Eight: -stan, as in the ends of nations' names, like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan.
Seven: wizard, inspired by films like "Harry Potter."
Six: Euro, the new currency of the European Union.
Five: anthrax.
Four: God.
Three: jihad, the word used by some to signify a holy war.
Two: the letter W. or Dubya, as the nickname for President George W. Bush.
And No. 1: ground zero.
Words from 2001.
I'll be back in one hour with the CNN "War Room." Among my guests, the former national security adviser, Samuel Berger. He will be here at 7:00 Eastern, 4:00 on the West Coast.
Until then, I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington. Thanks very much for watching. CNN's coverage of America's new war continues with "LOU DOBBS MONEYLINE." And that begins right now.
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