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CNN Wolf Blitzer Reports

Mount St. Helens Erupts; Accident At Boston Area Elementary School Injures Several Critically; Analysis of Bush, Kerry Debate

Aired October 01, 2004 - 17:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

WOLF BLITZER, HOST: Happening now, tragedy in the Boston area. A school, a car has plowed into the group of children. Now, reports some are in the hospital.
Also happening now, Mount St. Helens let's loose in Washington State and the volcano may not be finished.

Stand by for hard news on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): CNN exclusive: target insurgents, U.S. led forces in Iraq are in all-out combat.

Back on the trail, fresh from their first face-off, Bush and Kerry wrap up their rhetoric.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Last night, Senator Kerry only continued his pattern of confusing contradictions.

SEN. JOHN KERRY, (D-MA) PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: He says, well, I don't know how you're going to pay for all of that. You're going to have a tax gap. My friends, this is the president who created a tax gap.

BLITZER: Who won round one?

Were the candidates playing loose with the truth? Today, the reality check and reaction from around the world.

Al Qaeda cornered? A very unusual message, allegedly from a top leader that indicates terrorists may feel trapped.

ANNOUNCER: This is WOLF BLITZER REPORTS for Friday, October 1, 2004.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: In Washington State, a sleeping giant is waking up. Thick, white smoke began pouring out of Mount St. Helens, the volcano that killed 57 people when it erupted in 1980.

After a week of earthquakes on the mountain, a CNN camera was trained on the 8,300 foot peak when the eruption began and it caught these dramatic pictures. You can see smoke beginning to pour out of the crater, marking Mount St. Helens first eruption since 1986. CNN's Kimberly Osias is on the scene for us. She's joining us now live with the latest -- Kimberly.

KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, the show may not be entirely over. We may be just in a brief intermission, a geological intermission, if you will. Because, of course, this is a very active ecosystem and there is nothing to point to that evidence, other than this example. It was amazing. It was fast and furious, just around noon Pacific time. Mount St. Helens erupted again. This is the first major activity since the last quake, the last big one in 1986, the last eruption.

Now, most of the earthquakes that we've seen, we've a spade of activity since last Thursday, were very, very shallow, some with a magnitude of 3.3 even. Scientists are sifting through the data to determine what happened, but it was a plume of steam and smoke and ash that just went upwards probably a 1,000 or so feet into the sky and then downwind. It took about 20 minutes or so, 25 maybe, for everything to dissipate.

They say that nobody was in danger, but they are still monitoring things to see exactly what happened. And we will, of course, follow this and have everything for you later -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Kimberly Osias on the scene for us. Thanks, Kimberly, very much. Joining us now on the phone from the state capital Olympia, is the Washington State governor Gary Locke. Governor, thanks very much for joining us. What's the latest information you're getting on this volcano?

GOV. GARY LOCKE, WASHINGTON STATE: Thanks very much, Wolf. Everything happened as predicted by the scientists. And since the earthquake, the massive earthquake and eruption almost 25 years ago, scientists have put in a huge array of sophisticated monitoring equipment and communication systems.

And so there's -- there was a huge release of steam mixed with some ash. It was everything that was expected. The area is still closed off to hiking and camping and we'll continue to monitor it.

The cloud of steam may have reached as high as 16,000 feet, but it's nothing that is stopping flights. Pilots are told that they should fly around it, as they would a thunder storm. Some flights out of Portland International Airport have been delayed as a precaution, but it's not having any effect on high altitude aircraft. And small aircraft are just advised to stay out of the way.

Now, there is a possibility there may be some further events later on over the next few days. The scientists are going to continue monitoring it. But it's really -- this big burp, as we kind of call it, was pretty much as was predicted.

BLITZER: And so, basically when Kimberly Osias reports, this could be an interruption, more on the way, there's no way of telling, scientifically, whether the more could be really dangerous as it was in 1980, or just another little burp? LOCKE: Nobody is really predicting a major catastrophic type eruption, similar to what occurred in 1980. The scientists have seen these -- a constant seismic activity, minor, minor earthquakes and they pretty much predicted that by this weekend that there would be some sort of major event and it happened today, and they said it's exactly what they were expecting. Never a catastrophic, huge eruption, similar to what happened in 1980, but really a steam release with ash mixed in.

They'll go back and see what happens over the next few days, monitor the type of underground movements, see what's in store in the future. But you know, people need to remember, Mount St. Helens is really an active volcano. It's always been active. It may have been dormant for 100 years, but has really always had some sort of activity ongoing.

BLITZER: Governor Locke, thanks very much for joining us. And good luck to you. Good luck to all our friends in Washington State. Governor Gary Locke of Washington.

Mount St. Helens remained inactive for more than 100 years, between 1857 and 1980. Then on the morning of May 18, 1980, it erupted, blowing off more than 1,000 feet from the top of the mountain and leaving a huge crater. The eruption wound up killing 57 people and causing approximately $3 billion in damage. Volcanic ash spread across the northwest. More than 900,000 tons of ash were cleaned up in the area around Washington State.

Not anything like that expected this time, fortunately. But we'll continue to watch it for our viewers.

We're also getting this in in another story across the country in Massachusetts, where police say an elderly driver's car jumped the curb outside an elementary school, injuring about a dozen people, including children.

This is in the town of Stonan, about 10 miles north of downtown Boston. Police chief is quoted as saying some of the victims were pinned against a wall. Three children and one adult are reported to be in critical condition. A school official says it appears to be a tragic accident.

One day after the United States began its assault on Samarra, the fighting continues today. U.S. commanders in Iraq say more than 109 insurgents have now been killed, but only one American, at least so far, has died. CNN's Jane Arraf is embedded with the U.S. Army's 1st Infantry Division.

JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, we are in the downtown part of Samarra, around the major shrine, shots were still ringing out. U.S. forces said they have taken control of about half the sectors of the city. They're continuing that battle, and they expect it to go on for at least another 24 hours.

Now, in that battle, which raged for hours, particularly around the shrine. As you mentioned, they say that they have killed dozen of insurgents, a total of more than 109.

It is apparent -- shots were ringing out as U.S. forces from a high (UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE) from rooftops, a classic urban warfare. As the U.S. forces responded with tank rounds, with air strikes, with everything at their disposal. They are determined to root out insurgents from this city -- Wolf.

BLITZER: CNN's Jane Arraf, embedded with U.S. troops in Samarra right now, where this battle continues.

There was funerals in Baghdad today. Families are mourning the deaths of 34 children killed when a bomb exploded yesterday at a government-sponsored celebration. The interim Iraqi government issued a statement saying the attack, and I'm quoting now, "pushes very hard at the limits of barbarity."

Fresh from their first debate, the candidates, George W. Bush and John Kerry, are back on the campaign trail with each man's camp claiming victory in last night's first face-off. We have reporters with both campaigns. Let's start with CNN's Elaine Quijano. She's traveling with the president in Manchester, New Hampshire -- Elaine.

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon to you, Wolf. President Bush called last night's debate revealing and said it continues to show patterns of inconsistency and contradictions by his opponent, Democratic Senator John Kerry.

Now, here, at his appearance in New Hampshire, and also at an earlier event today in Pennsylvania, the president topped off his usual stump speech with a kind of post debate rebuttal of Senator Kerry's argument. Now saying that Senator Kerry has a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of the war on terror.

In one example that the president cited, Senator Kerry's comments in discussing the U.S. taking preemptive action, a right Kerry said he would not cede as president but that still should pass the global test. Today, President Bush pounced on that idea today.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Senator Kerry said last night that America has to pass some sort of global test before we can use American troops to defend ourselves. He wants our national security decision subject to the approval of a foreign government. Listen, I'll continue to work with our allies and the international community, but I will never submit America's national security to an international test.

QUIJANO: Now, the Kerry campaign has fired back, saying this is another example of the president taking Senator Kerry's comments out of context. They say is one of credibility, reasons that can up to scrutiny both here in the United States as well as abroad. Meantime, the campaigning for the president continues. He heads to another battleground state tomorrow, Ohio -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Thanks very much, Elaine, for that report. John Kerry is staying in Florida through tomorrow with campaign events in Tampa and Kissimmee today. CNN national correspondent Frank Buckley is with the Kerry campaign.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Senator Kerry came here to Tampa to the University of South Florida for a huge rally, an arena-type rally with thousands of supporters. The Kerry campaign very happy with Senator Kerry's performance at the debate. They believe that he made successful arguments, that he can be a stronger commander-in-chief. They believe he put President Bush on the defensive about his policies in Iraq and in the war on terror. Senator Kerry continued his criticism at this rally here and continued to rebut President Bush's criticisms from the debate.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He says we don't want to wilt or waver. I don't know how many times I heard that. Mr. President, nobody is talking about leaving. Nobody is talking about wilting and wavering. We're talking about winning and getting the job done right.

BUCKLEY: Now, the campaign is pivoting to domestic issues. They believe that some of the same arguments they have made about foreign policy and about Iraq can be applied to domestic policy, this idea that the president can't fix problems if he doesn't acknowledge them and that he has made the wrong choices on both foreign policy and domestic policy. Senator Kerry at this rally mocked President Bush for questioning some of his homeland security proposals and how he might pay for them.

KERRY: He says, well, I don't know how you're going to pay for all that. You're going to have a tax gap. My friends, this is the president who created a tax gap by providing a tax cut to the wealthiest Americans instead of investing in homeland security in the United States.

BUCKLEY: Kerry campaign officials say they don't expect the poll numbers to change significantly immediately as a result of the debate last night, but they do believe that Kerry's performance in the debate will cause undecided voters to take a fresh look at Senator Kerry, just as the campaign pivots to domestic issues. Frank Buckley, CNN, Tampa, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Monitoring Mount St. Helens where we're watching this developing story. A spectacular scene today. The mountain spewing ash and a huge column of white steam. We'll update you on changes as they happen.

A call to action by Osama bin Laden's number two man. Ayman al- Zawahiri telling the young Muslims to, quote, "carry on the fight." But is he the one backed into the corner?

Plus this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: America in Korea is the most hated country of the world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: They can't vote, but they can voice their opinions. The world, much of it, at least, is weighing in on last night's presidential debate. In Miami, we'll go around the world and get a sampling of reaction.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: We're getting some new information now from Iraq following up what's happening right now in Fallujah. We have now learned that a U.S. war plane -- you're looking at these pictures we just got in. The attack was being described as rebel-held areas of the Iraqi city of Fallujah. According to one report, three people at least have been killed. Others have been injured in this raid. This is not the first time U.S. war planes have attacked targets in and around Fallujah. It's been going on now for several weeks. These are pictures just coming in to CNN right now.

Earlier, we reported on a major U.S. military offensive combined with Iraqi and coalition forces going in to Samarra also in the so- called Sunni Triangle.

Also in the Middle East, at least 8 more Palestinians have been killed in northern Gaza today bringing the total to 41. A total of three Israelis have died in the fighting. The Israeli army is trying to push Palestinian militants back so they can no longer fire homemade rockets in many cases into Israel. A rocket attack this week from Gaza killed two Israeli children.

There was also violence in Pakistan today. Officials say a suicide attacker walked into a Shiite mosque with a bomb during Friday prayers. At least 25 people were killed. 50 others were injured. Experts defused a second bomb outside the very same mosque. There has been no claim of responsibility, but Pakistani officials call the attack an act of terrorism aimed at destabilizing the country.

Amid all of this, there has been a new audiotape said to have been made by the top al Qaeda leader and it has surfaced, experts say, with one specific message that may have special significance. Our Brian Todd is joining us now live. He's following the story -- Brian.

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, the tape is extraordinary for that one message that is sent by Ayman al-Zawahiri and for some references that are not made.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TODD (voice-over): The message is certainly familiar. We shouldn't wait for the American, English, French, Jewish, Hungarian, Polish, and South Korean forces to invade Egypt, the Arabian peninsula, Yemen and Algeria and then start the resistance after the occupier had already invaded us. We should start now.

TODD: Following a technical CIA analysis, a U.S. intelligence official tells CNN there is, quote, "high confidence that a voice on an audiotape broadcast by the Al Jazeera Network is that of the al Qaeda's number two man, Ayman al-Zawahiri." But on the tape, there are some curious omissions. We hear no obvious time references, nothing indicating if this is new, no reference to the upcoming anniversary of the first U.S. strikes in Afghanistan, a hugely symbolic event for al Qaeda.

PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: This may have just been caught in the system, you know, the chain of custody may have taken some time to get this tape to al Jazeera to get it broadcast.

TODD: But experts agree, one segment of the message is extraordinary.

ZAWAHIRI (through translator): Oh, young man of Islam, here is our message to you. If we are killed or captured, you should carry on the fight.

TODD: This will be the first direct reference from Amin al Zawahiri to the possibility of being killed or captured. Could this be a sign that al Zawahiri feels his enemy is closing in?

BERGEN: It may indicate they maybe sort of feel they're on the ropes and that martyrdom, in their terms, is a real possibility.

TODD: And what of his boss? We have not heard from Osama bin Laden since early May, when a statement from the al Qaeda leader offered a bounty for killing top western officials in Iraq. Before last month's anniversary of 9/11, it was Amin al Zawahiri who appeared on videotape taunting U.S. forces.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TODD: Now, if bin Laden is not heard from for that anniversary of the U.S. airstrikes in Afghanistan, or at any time around the Afghan elections on October 9, one terrorism expert told me that could imply many things. And he said it would be odd if we heard nothing from bin Laden in the coming weeks, Wolf.

BLITZER: Brian Todd, thanks very much. Ominous words from Amin al Zawahiri.

We're continuing to monitor the other story we're following, what's happening atop Mount St. Helens. There has been, as you saw earlier, erupting ash and steam. We're watching this. We'll update you if any new activity unfolds.

Plus this.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BUSH: This nation of ours has a solemn duty to defeat this ideology of hate.

KERRY: We didn't need to rush to war without a plan to win the peace. (END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Round 1 is over, which candidate finished on top? We'll hear from Bush supporter Bernard Kerik and Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart. They'll join me live.

Plus, reaction from around the world. What the international community is saying about the debate and the candidates.

And America's best friend enters the hospital for a heart procedure. An update on British Prime Minister Tony Blair's health. All that coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: More now on the first presidential debate. Who really won the critical first round? We're going to hear from the top Kerry campaign adviser in just a few minutes. First, though, Bernard Kerik is joining us from our New York bureau. He's the former New York City police commissioner. More recently, he was a senior adviser to the Coalition Authority in Iraq. He's now back in New York.

Thanks very much, commissioner, for joining us.

You were there from May to September of last year. Is it fair to say the situation today, as far as internal security is concerned. is worse than it was when you were there?

BERNARD KERIK, FRM. NYC POLICE COMMISSIONER: Well, I think the attacks by insurgency is worse. Internal security, the every day crime issues that we had to deal with early on, I think that has been remediated. I think the terrorism and the insurgents, some of the leftover Baathists and Fedayeen and loyalists to Saddam, they're still there. And that's what they're dealing with today as we see these actions by the coalition members that are going on in Samarra, Fallujah and some of these other places in conjunction with the Iraqi authorities.

BLITZER: But it seems to be getting increasingly worse, and most of the experts, including General Abizaid, among others, suggesting it's even going to get worse between now and January, the end of January, and perhaps beyond, if these elections in Iraq take place as scheduled. Do you accept that assessment?

KERIK: Honestly, Wolf, I do. And if you go back to my interviews with you and others, in the last 9 months, I have said that continually. I agree with General Abizaid. He knows it better than anyone.

Our election and their election, that is the two focal points right now. They're trying to send a message. Trying to really demoralize our will here in this country.

Also, the political debates, the political rhetoric being spewn here, it's not good for the war on terrorism in Iraq, because terrorists today have the ability to watch CNN and other cable stations. And they believe if they continue this fight the way they're doing we will pull out and we will get out of the country.

BLITZER: But does the president have a responsibility to the tell the American people the truth of what's going on, based on what the CIA, his best intelligence, is telling him as opposed to an overly rosy scenario, which is what John Kerry is accusing the president of simply filtering and being overly optimistic when the facts on the ground don't bear that out?

KERIK: Honestly, I look at it from two perspectives. I have a personal interest in this, being somebody that had to bring out 23 members of the NYPD from ground zero, and I was on the ground in Iraq. The president's picture on Iraq isn't rosy, but it is optimistic and it's optimistic based on the Iraqi people, based on the progress we've had so far in the rest of the country and it's based on the commitment that he has to get the job done. This isn't rosy.

If you go back to his speech of September 20, 2001, he said then, and sometimes we forget. John Kerry may not have been paying attention. I think he forgets. The president said it would be long. It would come at a cost. A cost in life. A cost in money. And it wasn't going to be a short-term war. This is a long-term war. That's what you see going on today.

BLITZER: Let me interrupt for a second, though. The 9/11 commission and all the experts have said flatly there was no significant evidence, no evidence at all of any operational collaboration between Saddam Hussein and the then 9/11 terrorists, the al Qaeda network, that did what it did at the World Trade Center, at Pentagon here in Washington and in Pennsylvania. So, there really is no connection between Saddam Hussein, direct connection in 9/11.

KERIK: Well, honestly, Wolf, I've got to tell you, from somebody that was there, in both places, I hope we don't get a president that is only going to look for connections when global terrorism to 9/11. This is about the security of this...

BLITZER: But did he take the eye off the ball, and divert resources, valuable resources from the fight against al Qaeda and Afghanistan and elsewhere and divert those resources to a secondary threat, which was Saddam Hussein.

KERIK: No, I don't think so. And if you talk to General Abizaid, and you talk to Tommy Franks and you talk to the other military commanders, they're the ones on the ground with the strategic information. They don't believe so either.

I wasn't in one of those military commands, but those are the guys that count. Those are the guys that were on the grounds. They don't believe so.

And I think what's important is, we have to be proactive and preemptive. And that's what this president is doing. And God forbid, we don't, because there'll be more attacks in this country, which I don't want to see.

BLITZER: We'll leave it right there. Bernard Kerik, the former police commissioner in New York, thanks very much for joining us.

KERIK: Thanks, Wolf.

BLITZER: Later this hour, we'll here from a Democrat, Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart. He'll join me. He has a very different perspective.

To you, our viewers, here is your chance to weigh in on this story. Our Web question of the day is this. Who do you think won the first U.S. presidential debate? You can vote right now. Go to CNN.com/Wolf. We'll have the results for you later in this broadcast.

Efforts under way right now off the coast of Cape Cod to try to coax a great white shark out of the lagoon it has been circling in for more than a week. You're looking at these pictures from Cape Cod right now. We'll update you on what's happening there.

Plus, playing fast with the facts. Did the candidates stretch the truth in last night's debate? We'll do a reality check.

Plus, the grim discovery that could bring closure to an ongoing mystery.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back. Fact-checking the first presidential debate. Did the candidates get it right? We'll review. Plus, new poll numbers on which man one.

First, though, a quick check of some other stories now in the news.

Scientists along the coast of Massachusetts are trying to coax a great white shark out to sea. You're looking at these live pictures. They're live from Massachusetts where nets and electronic repellent devices have been strung in a bid to disrupt the shark's swimming patterns. The goal is to get the shark to swim through an inlet between islands and then out into the ocean. We'll watch this story for you. There it is.

Police in Salt Lake City have found human remains in a landfill where they've been searching for a body of the missing woman Lori Hacking. Investigators are trying to identify the remains. Hacking disappeared July 18. Her husband, Mark, has been charged with her murder.

The British prime minister, Tony Blair, is expected to spend the weekend relaxing at No. 10 Downing Street after undergoing a procedure to correct a sometimes irregular heartbeat. This morning's hospital procedure lasted about two hours and Blair was released early. Doctors say he is expected, expected, to make a complete recovery.

Keeping you informed, CNN, the most trusted name in news. In the wake of the first presidential debate, it looks like most Americans thought Senator John Kerry performed better. In a CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, 53 percent said Kerry won the debate; 37 percent said President Bush won it.

And even though there weren't any huge factual mistakes, both President Bush and Senator Kerry did stretch the truth a little bit or conveniently leave out some facts in the face-off.

Here is a closer look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): By and large, the two candidates avoided any really egregious blunders, but at times they came close. The president, for example, when he said this of the creator of the Pakistani nuclear bomb, Abdul Qadeer Khan, who also sold banned nuclear material to Libya, North Korea other so-called rogue states.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The A.Q. network has been brought to justice.

BLITZER: Rolled up rather than brought to justice would have been a better phrase, since Khan was immediately given a blanket pardon by President Pervez Musharraf. Pakistan even has refused to allow Khan, who lives in a grand villa, to be questioned by the representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Then there was this.

BUSH: Seventy-five percent of known al Qaeda leaders have been brought to justice.

BLITZER: That's the CIA estimate. Among terror specialists, it has been questioned. But more significantly, they say, the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq has resulted in thousands of new al Qaeda recruits and sympathizers around the world.

BUSH: Ten million people have registered to vote in Afghanistan in the upcoming presidential election.

BLITZER: Here, too, critics suggest that number has been inflated. The group Human Rights Watch accuse Afghan authorities of allowing multiple registration of voters.

And then there was this apparent appeal for votes among American Jews and other supporters of Israel.

BUSH: A free Iraq will help secure Israel.

BLITZER: Here, too, critics insist Palestinian opposition to Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza is likely to continue irrespective of what happens in Iraq.

Kerry had his share of questionable assertions as well, including this on Osama bin Laden. SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Unfortunately, he escaped in the mountains of Tora Bora. We had him surrounded. But we didn't use American forces, the best trained in the world, to go kill him. The president relied on Afghan warlords that he outsourced that job to. That's wrong.

BLITZER: But retired U.S. Army General Tommy Franks, now a Bush supporter, insists it was never certain that bin Laden was in Tora Bora.

RET. GEN. TOMMY FRANKS, FORMER CENTCOM COMMANDER: The fact of the matter is, within 72 hours of the time we receiving reporting on where Osama bin Laden was in Tora Bora, I received similar reporting everyplace from Baluchistan to a lake up to the northwest of Kandahar.

BLITZER: Kerry also charges that Bush got rid of U.S. Army Chief of Staff Eric Shinseki because he recommended that lots more U.S. troops would be needed to secure Iraq, a position the president and his advisers supposedly didn't want to hear.

KERRY: Instead of listening to him, they retired him.

BLITZER: But, in fact, Shinseki served out his full four years as chief of staff, a point acknowledged by former NATO Commander Wesley Clark, himself a Kerry supporter.

WESLEY CLARK (D), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: But what Rumsfeld did to him was, he named his successor a full year in advance in a way that basically cut Shinseki's legs out from under him inside the very sensitive bureaucracy of the Pentagon.

BLITZER: And, finally, there was this verbal gaffe.

KERRY: And I was probably one of the first senators, along with Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire, a former senator, go down into the KGB underneath Treblinka Square and see reams of files with names in them.

BLITZER: Treblinka was a Nazi death camp. Kerry meant to say Lubyanka, the notorious Soviet KGB prison in Moscow.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: And we've looked at how Americans are reacting to last night's presidential debate, but let's take a closer look and see how people overseas around the world are reacting to the debate.

CNN's Zain Verjee joining us now live with more on that -- Zain.

ZAIN VERJEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, many people overseas either stayed up late or got up early to watch the debate. They're watching the U.S. election campaign closely with the view that they, too, have a stake in the election outcome.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BUSH: You can be realistic and optimistic at the same time.

KERRY: ...tons of unsecured materials still in the...

BUSH: ...the American people to do everything I can to protect us.

VERJEE: Many Europeans stayed up past 4:00 a.m. to watch the debate. Britain's ITN reported that the president didn't make major mistakes.

At the offices of "Le Monde" in Paris, foreign editor Francoise Bonet (ph) said Kerry had emerged as a credible candidate with a concrete foreign policy vision. And on the streets of Paris, one student was heartened by Kerry's perspective.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He spoke about America with international vision and so this appeals to European public.

VERJEE: Russians, too, were following events at Coral Gables. One Moscow resident had a novel twist on conventional wisdom.

He was hoping for a Bush win, as it was easier for Russia to establish a relationship with the Republicans. The Democrats always disappointed Russia, he said.

Few editorials suggested that there had been a decisive outcome. London's "Financial Times" Web site said the debate was a tie, where there was no single moment which sealed the debate for one man. Most Arab media declared Kerry the winner, because he was more convincing, Al-Jazeera's Washington reporter saying Kerry came across as informed about the information in Iraq.

Some Iraqis stayed up until the small hours of the morning to watch and were quick to offer their opinions.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): We hope that Bush will win to honor his promises and eliminate terror.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): We support Kerry, because he says if he wins the elections, he will withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq. Bush wouldn't.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VERJEE: Wolf, interest in the debate also high in Asia, where people watched it on Friday morning. Japanese and South Korean news channels focused their coverage much more on differing Bush-Kerry positions on handling North Korea -- Wolf.

BLITZER: CNN's Zain Verjee reporting with the reaction from around the world. Zain, thanks very much.

The presidential debates, who won and who lost? We heard from the Republicans. Now senior Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart, he'll join us with the Democrats' perspective. Next up, the vice presidential debate. How important is it to the campaign? Our political analyst, Carlos Watson, has "The Inside Edge."

Plus, we'll show you some more amazing images from Mount Saint Helens, erupting for the first time in 18 years.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: More now on the presidential debate last night. Earlier, we spoke to Bernard Kerik, the former New York City police commissioner. He's a Bush supporter.

For the other side of the story, we have Joe Lockhart, a senior adviser to the Kerry campaign. He's joining us from the Kerry campaign headquarters. A lot of our viewers, of course, remember him as the White House press secretary during the Clinton administration.

Joe, thanks very much for joining us.

JOE LOCKHART, KERRY CAMPAIGN ADVISER: Good to be here, Wolf.

BLITZER: Let's talk about a couple of factual things that the Democratic candidate said last night. Eric Shinseki, the Army chief of staff, he served his full four years as Army chief of staff. He wasn't forced to retire.

LOCKHART: Listen, I think Wes Clark put it the best. The Pentagon has a way when they have Missouri who they think steps out of line, is saying something publicly that the president doesn't want to hear and, you know, as Wes Clark said, they announced his replacement a year early and by all effects, he was retired.

BLITZER: But he served his full four years. I think the candidate should be a little bit more precise in his words, don't you think?

LOCKHART: Well, listen, I think that everybody around town knows what happened here. And I don't think there's been a forceful pushback on this in the year and a half or two years since it happened.

I think now they're just looking to find anything that they can find some factual problem with.

BLITZER: General Franks, you heard him say, Tommy Franks, there was no hard evidence, no definitive word that Osama bin Laden was cornered with 1,000 of his guys in Tora Bora. There was a report, but there were reports he could have been in Baluchistan or Kandahar or elsewhere around the same time. Does Senator Kerry have hard evidence to the contrary?

LOCKHART: Well, there were many reports, not just one report, that he was in this area.

And I think Senator Kerry's view is, if there's a credible report that Osama bin Laden is hiding someplace, you send the best. You don't send some Afghan warlords to do your job for you. So even if he wasn't there, if they had credible reports, which Tommy Franks admitted they did, you send the best. That was the point.

BLITZER: The senator also complained in a memorable moment last night how the president sent American soldiers into war, battle, without the body armor, the Humvees, the protection that they really needed. If he was so concerned about the protection of these soldiers, why did he vote against the $87 billion, part of which was designed to give them better body armor, better protection?

LOCKHART: Listen, it is a fact that these troops went in, 10,000 out of 12,000 Humvees not reinforced with armor, soldiers going in, I think something like one in four or one in three soldiers not having the state-of-the-art Kevlar to protect themselves, the right kind of body armor.

This was before we went in. The $87 billion was after. And I think, as John Kerry talked about last night, it was about whether we were going to put this off and put the bill to our children or whether we do something more reasonable, pay for it now, ask for the wealthiest Americans, who had gotten a huge tax windfall, to pay for it. That is what that was about.

John Kerry as always supported the troops. Everyone knows that. He supported them because he was one. He volunteered and went to Vietnam, put his life on the line. He understands what it's like to be out there and how to support the troops.

BLITZER: I want you to correct the record, if you want to, a lot of reports quoting you as saying that this was a draw last night.

LOCKHART: Yes.

Listen, I think all of you in the journalism business should be a little bit careful about listening to The Drudge Report. Everyone says, oh, we don't, we don't, but you do. And you read it.

I was in the spin room last night when Mike McCurry asked me what the Republicans were saying about the event. What was their spin? And I turned to him and said, they say it's a draw. That's what the consensus is.

Matt Drudge and the Republican operatives seized on that, twisted my words and turned it around. It just shows how pathetic they are, Wolf. It really is pathetic. And I think everyone in the news business should take a deep breath and decide, maybe we should report on this. You guys all know my phone number. You can call me up and ask me.

BLITZER: All right, and we do. We invited you on this program today.

LOCKHART: Good.

BLITZER: Joe Lockhart, as usual, thanks very much for joining us.

LOCKHART: Thanks, Wolf.

BLITZER: We want to update our viewers on a story we reported earlier this hour, new information just coming into CNN right now. Salt Lake City police say Lori Hacking's remains have, indeed, been found.

The authorities say they used dental records to confirm that the remains found at a county landfill are, indeed, those of Lori Hacking. The 27-year-old woman has been missing since July 18. Her husband, who reported her missing the next day, has since been charged with her murder.

The No. 2 men preparing to take center stage. The vice presidential debate could be even tougher than the presidential debate was last night. It comes up Tuesday night. Will sparks fly? Our Carlos Watson has "The Inside Edge." He's coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Up next in election 2004, the vice presidential debate, Senator John Edwards taking on the incumbent, Dick Cheney.

For "The Inside Edge," we're joined now by CNN political analyst Carlos Watson, joining us today from Chicago.

Set the scene for us. What do you expect Tuesday night in Cleveland?

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, you know what's so interesting, Wolf, is that often vice presidential debates are ignored, even if they have great one-liners like in 1988 with Lloyd Bentsen and Dan Quayle.

But this one I expect more people to watch. I expect north of 40 million, as opposed to 28 or 29 million. And, Wolf, I expect this to be an incredibly aggressive debate. Yesterday, the two presidential contenders were relatively polite. They weren't as aggressive. I expect to hear more cross words between John Edwards and Vice President Cheney.

The other interesting thing, I think, will be the strategy. I think for Vice President Cheney, you'll find that instead of debating John Edwards, he really will be making points that challenge John Kerry. And so in many ways, he'll take an opportunity to try and continue the job that President Bush did.

In a very interesting way, I think you'll see John Edwards do the same thing and try and drive home points, particularly on Iraq, but also, by the way, on the issue of outsourcing.

BLITZER: Carlos, we're now getting word from Nielsen, 62.4 million people, Americans, watched the debate last night. That's a larger number than a lot of us thought.

WATSON: Certainly.

You know, in fact, we talked, Wolf, that we did expect, that, like so many things in this election, things would increase. That's 15 million more people, about 33 percent more, than who watched the first debate in 2000.

Interesting couple of things to think about, though, in the aftermath of the debate, the so-called spin game. I think the spin game, Wolf, this year is a very different spin game than what we saw in 2000, for a couple reasons. One, as we just said, 33 percent more people watched it. So it's harder to spin people who actually have firsthand knowledge.

No. 2, there are more players in the spin game who ultimately can decide what the final judgment on this debate was in terms of who was the winner. And I'm particularly thinking about blogs, but I'm also thinking about talk radio, not just conservative, but liberal talk radio.

And then one of the interesting things that is happening -- and you profiled some of this on the show earlier tonight -- is that we are beginning to care more about international perspectives, whether those come through Web sites, TV channels, etcetera. And so I think the spin game, which will continue at least through Sunday, I think will be furious.

But there will be more participants and I think it will be a different spin game than the one we saw in 2000, which, by the way, President Bush won thoroughly, the spin game, that is.

BLITZER: Were you surprised, Carlos, by some of the things we didn't hear last night?

WATSON: I guess I was.

There were two things that stood out, in particular. A conversation about foreign policy you would have thought would have more heavily involved the most populous nation on the face of the world, namely, China. And particularly given the growing trade deficit that we have with China, not to mention a number of other issues, including intellectual privacy and even AIDS, by the way, you thought would have come up. But we didn't hear much mention of China, if any, so, China certainly won.

And the other issue that I just highlighted was AIDS. AIDS, believe it or not, is a more foreign policy issue than some think.

BLITZER: Carlos Watson with "The Inside Edge" for us, as he does every Friday here on this program. Thanks, Carlos.

WATSON: Good to see you.

BLITZER: See you in Cleveland Tuesday.

And the results of our Web question of the day, that's coming up next. Plus, releasing steam. Those are amazing pictures we saw from Mount St. Helens. And it was captured all live.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Here is how you're weighing in on our Web question of the day. Look at this, Bush 22, Kerry 71, even matched, 7 percent. Remember, this is not a scientific poll.

Now our picture of the day and worth another look, Mount Saint Helens in Washington state erupting earlier today, sending a column of ash and steam almost two miles into the sky. The eruption came after days of rumblings deep inside the volcano and lasted about 20 minutes. Scientists described it, though, as a hiccup. We'll watch to see if it hiccups again.

This programming note. Next week, we'll have special coverage of the second presidential debate and the first and only vice presidential debate.

Please join me this weekend on Sunday for "LATE EDITION." Among my special guests, the national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, Sunday, noon Eastern.

"LOU DOBBS TONIGHT" starts right now.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com

Aired October 1, 2004 - 17:00 ET
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WOLF BLITZER, HOST: Happening now, tragedy in the Boston area. A school, a car has plowed into the group of children. Now, reports some are in the hospital.
Also happening now, Mount St. Helens let's loose in Washington State and the volcano may not be finished.

Stand by for hard news on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): CNN exclusive: target insurgents, U.S. led forces in Iraq are in all-out combat.

Back on the trail, fresh from their first face-off, Bush and Kerry wrap up their rhetoric.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Last night, Senator Kerry only continued his pattern of confusing contradictions.

SEN. JOHN KERRY, (D-MA) PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: He says, well, I don't know how you're going to pay for all of that. You're going to have a tax gap. My friends, this is the president who created a tax gap.

BLITZER: Who won round one?

Were the candidates playing loose with the truth? Today, the reality check and reaction from around the world.

Al Qaeda cornered? A very unusual message, allegedly from a top leader that indicates terrorists may feel trapped.

ANNOUNCER: This is WOLF BLITZER REPORTS for Friday, October 1, 2004.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: In Washington State, a sleeping giant is waking up. Thick, white smoke began pouring out of Mount St. Helens, the volcano that killed 57 people when it erupted in 1980.

After a week of earthquakes on the mountain, a CNN camera was trained on the 8,300 foot peak when the eruption began and it caught these dramatic pictures. You can see smoke beginning to pour out of the crater, marking Mount St. Helens first eruption since 1986. CNN's Kimberly Osias is on the scene for us. She's joining us now live with the latest -- Kimberly.

KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, the show may not be entirely over. We may be just in a brief intermission, a geological intermission, if you will. Because, of course, this is a very active ecosystem and there is nothing to point to that evidence, other than this example. It was amazing. It was fast and furious, just around noon Pacific time. Mount St. Helens erupted again. This is the first major activity since the last quake, the last big one in 1986, the last eruption.

Now, most of the earthquakes that we've seen, we've a spade of activity since last Thursday, were very, very shallow, some with a magnitude of 3.3 even. Scientists are sifting through the data to determine what happened, but it was a plume of steam and smoke and ash that just went upwards probably a 1,000 or so feet into the sky and then downwind. It took about 20 minutes or so, 25 maybe, for everything to dissipate.

They say that nobody was in danger, but they are still monitoring things to see exactly what happened. And we will, of course, follow this and have everything for you later -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Kimberly Osias on the scene for us. Thanks, Kimberly, very much. Joining us now on the phone from the state capital Olympia, is the Washington State governor Gary Locke. Governor, thanks very much for joining us. What's the latest information you're getting on this volcano?

GOV. GARY LOCKE, WASHINGTON STATE: Thanks very much, Wolf. Everything happened as predicted by the scientists. And since the earthquake, the massive earthquake and eruption almost 25 years ago, scientists have put in a huge array of sophisticated monitoring equipment and communication systems.

And so there's -- there was a huge release of steam mixed with some ash. It was everything that was expected. The area is still closed off to hiking and camping and we'll continue to monitor it.

The cloud of steam may have reached as high as 16,000 feet, but it's nothing that is stopping flights. Pilots are told that they should fly around it, as they would a thunder storm. Some flights out of Portland International Airport have been delayed as a precaution, but it's not having any effect on high altitude aircraft. And small aircraft are just advised to stay out of the way.

Now, there is a possibility there may be some further events later on over the next few days. The scientists are going to continue monitoring it. But it's really -- this big burp, as we kind of call it, was pretty much as was predicted.

BLITZER: And so, basically when Kimberly Osias reports, this could be an interruption, more on the way, there's no way of telling, scientifically, whether the more could be really dangerous as it was in 1980, or just another little burp? LOCKE: Nobody is really predicting a major catastrophic type eruption, similar to what occurred in 1980. The scientists have seen these -- a constant seismic activity, minor, minor earthquakes and they pretty much predicted that by this weekend that there would be some sort of major event and it happened today, and they said it's exactly what they were expecting. Never a catastrophic, huge eruption, similar to what happened in 1980, but really a steam release with ash mixed in.

They'll go back and see what happens over the next few days, monitor the type of underground movements, see what's in store in the future. But you know, people need to remember, Mount St. Helens is really an active volcano. It's always been active. It may have been dormant for 100 years, but has really always had some sort of activity ongoing.

BLITZER: Governor Locke, thanks very much for joining us. And good luck to you. Good luck to all our friends in Washington State. Governor Gary Locke of Washington.

Mount St. Helens remained inactive for more than 100 years, between 1857 and 1980. Then on the morning of May 18, 1980, it erupted, blowing off more than 1,000 feet from the top of the mountain and leaving a huge crater. The eruption wound up killing 57 people and causing approximately $3 billion in damage. Volcanic ash spread across the northwest. More than 900,000 tons of ash were cleaned up in the area around Washington State.

Not anything like that expected this time, fortunately. But we'll continue to watch it for our viewers.

We're also getting this in in another story across the country in Massachusetts, where police say an elderly driver's car jumped the curb outside an elementary school, injuring about a dozen people, including children.

This is in the town of Stonan, about 10 miles north of downtown Boston. Police chief is quoted as saying some of the victims were pinned against a wall. Three children and one adult are reported to be in critical condition. A school official says it appears to be a tragic accident.

One day after the United States began its assault on Samarra, the fighting continues today. U.S. commanders in Iraq say more than 109 insurgents have now been killed, but only one American, at least so far, has died. CNN's Jane Arraf is embedded with the U.S. Army's 1st Infantry Division.

JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, we are in the downtown part of Samarra, around the major shrine, shots were still ringing out. U.S. forces said they have taken control of about half the sectors of the city. They're continuing that battle, and they expect it to go on for at least another 24 hours.

Now, in that battle, which raged for hours, particularly around the shrine. As you mentioned, they say that they have killed dozen of insurgents, a total of more than 109.

It is apparent -- shots were ringing out as U.S. forces from a high (UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE) from rooftops, a classic urban warfare. As the U.S. forces responded with tank rounds, with air strikes, with everything at their disposal. They are determined to root out insurgents from this city -- Wolf.

BLITZER: CNN's Jane Arraf, embedded with U.S. troops in Samarra right now, where this battle continues.

There was funerals in Baghdad today. Families are mourning the deaths of 34 children killed when a bomb exploded yesterday at a government-sponsored celebration. The interim Iraqi government issued a statement saying the attack, and I'm quoting now, "pushes very hard at the limits of barbarity."

Fresh from their first debate, the candidates, George W. Bush and John Kerry, are back on the campaign trail with each man's camp claiming victory in last night's first face-off. We have reporters with both campaigns. Let's start with CNN's Elaine Quijano. She's traveling with the president in Manchester, New Hampshire -- Elaine.

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon to you, Wolf. President Bush called last night's debate revealing and said it continues to show patterns of inconsistency and contradictions by his opponent, Democratic Senator John Kerry.

Now, here, at his appearance in New Hampshire, and also at an earlier event today in Pennsylvania, the president topped off his usual stump speech with a kind of post debate rebuttal of Senator Kerry's argument. Now saying that Senator Kerry has a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of the war on terror.

In one example that the president cited, Senator Kerry's comments in discussing the U.S. taking preemptive action, a right Kerry said he would not cede as president but that still should pass the global test. Today, President Bush pounced on that idea today.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Senator Kerry said last night that America has to pass some sort of global test before we can use American troops to defend ourselves. He wants our national security decision subject to the approval of a foreign government. Listen, I'll continue to work with our allies and the international community, but I will never submit America's national security to an international test.

QUIJANO: Now, the Kerry campaign has fired back, saying this is another example of the president taking Senator Kerry's comments out of context. They say is one of credibility, reasons that can up to scrutiny both here in the United States as well as abroad. Meantime, the campaigning for the president continues. He heads to another battleground state tomorrow, Ohio -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Thanks very much, Elaine, for that report. John Kerry is staying in Florida through tomorrow with campaign events in Tampa and Kissimmee today. CNN national correspondent Frank Buckley is with the Kerry campaign.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Senator Kerry came here to Tampa to the University of South Florida for a huge rally, an arena-type rally with thousands of supporters. The Kerry campaign very happy with Senator Kerry's performance at the debate. They believe that he made successful arguments, that he can be a stronger commander-in-chief. They believe he put President Bush on the defensive about his policies in Iraq and in the war on terror. Senator Kerry continued his criticism at this rally here and continued to rebut President Bush's criticisms from the debate.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He says we don't want to wilt or waver. I don't know how many times I heard that. Mr. President, nobody is talking about leaving. Nobody is talking about wilting and wavering. We're talking about winning and getting the job done right.

BUCKLEY: Now, the campaign is pivoting to domestic issues. They believe that some of the same arguments they have made about foreign policy and about Iraq can be applied to domestic policy, this idea that the president can't fix problems if he doesn't acknowledge them and that he has made the wrong choices on both foreign policy and domestic policy. Senator Kerry at this rally mocked President Bush for questioning some of his homeland security proposals and how he might pay for them.

KERRY: He says, well, I don't know how you're going to pay for all that. You're going to have a tax gap. My friends, this is the president who created a tax gap by providing a tax cut to the wealthiest Americans instead of investing in homeland security in the United States.

BUCKLEY: Kerry campaign officials say they don't expect the poll numbers to change significantly immediately as a result of the debate last night, but they do believe that Kerry's performance in the debate will cause undecided voters to take a fresh look at Senator Kerry, just as the campaign pivots to domestic issues. Frank Buckley, CNN, Tampa, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Monitoring Mount St. Helens where we're watching this developing story. A spectacular scene today. The mountain spewing ash and a huge column of white steam. We'll update you on changes as they happen.

A call to action by Osama bin Laden's number two man. Ayman al- Zawahiri telling the young Muslims to, quote, "carry on the fight." But is he the one backed into the corner?

Plus this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: America in Korea is the most hated country of the world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: They can't vote, but they can voice their opinions. The world, much of it, at least, is weighing in on last night's presidential debate. In Miami, we'll go around the world and get a sampling of reaction.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: We're getting some new information now from Iraq following up what's happening right now in Fallujah. We have now learned that a U.S. war plane -- you're looking at these pictures we just got in. The attack was being described as rebel-held areas of the Iraqi city of Fallujah. According to one report, three people at least have been killed. Others have been injured in this raid. This is not the first time U.S. war planes have attacked targets in and around Fallujah. It's been going on now for several weeks. These are pictures just coming in to CNN right now.

Earlier, we reported on a major U.S. military offensive combined with Iraqi and coalition forces going in to Samarra also in the so- called Sunni Triangle.

Also in the Middle East, at least 8 more Palestinians have been killed in northern Gaza today bringing the total to 41. A total of three Israelis have died in the fighting. The Israeli army is trying to push Palestinian militants back so they can no longer fire homemade rockets in many cases into Israel. A rocket attack this week from Gaza killed two Israeli children.

There was also violence in Pakistan today. Officials say a suicide attacker walked into a Shiite mosque with a bomb during Friday prayers. At least 25 people were killed. 50 others were injured. Experts defused a second bomb outside the very same mosque. There has been no claim of responsibility, but Pakistani officials call the attack an act of terrorism aimed at destabilizing the country.

Amid all of this, there has been a new audiotape said to have been made by the top al Qaeda leader and it has surfaced, experts say, with one specific message that may have special significance. Our Brian Todd is joining us now live. He's following the story -- Brian.

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, the tape is extraordinary for that one message that is sent by Ayman al-Zawahiri and for some references that are not made.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TODD (voice-over): The message is certainly familiar. We shouldn't wait for the American, English, French, Jewish, Hungarian, Polish, and South Korean forces to invade Egypt, the Arabian peninsula, Yemen and Algeria and then start the resistance after the occupier had already invaded us. We should start now.

TODD: Following a technical CIA analysis, a U.S. intelligence official tells CNN there is, quote, "high confidence that a voice on an audiotape broadcast by the Al Jazeera Network is that of the al Qaeda's number two man, Ayman al-Zawahiri." But on the tape, there are some curious omissions. We hear no obvious time references, nothing indicating if this is new, no reference to the upcoming anniversary of the first U.S. strikes in Afghanistan, a hugely symbolic event for al Qaeda.

PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: This may have just been caught in the system, you know, the chain of custody may have taken some time to get this tape to al Jazeera to get it broadcast.

TODD: But experts agree, one segment of the message is extraordinary.

ZAWAHIRI (through translator): Oh, young man of Islam, here is our message to you. If we are killed or captured, you should carry on the fight.

TODD: This will be the first direct reference from Amin al Zawahiri to the possibility of being killed or captured. Could this be a sign that al Zawahiri feels his enemy is closing in?

BERGEN: It may indicate they maybe sort of feel they're on the ropes and that martyrdom, in their terms, is a real possibility.

TODD: And what of his boss? We have not heard from Osama bin Laden since early May, when a statement from the al Qaeda leader offered a bounty for killing top western officials in Iraq. Before last month's anniversary of 9/11, it was Amin al Zawahiri who appeared on videotape taunting U.S. forces.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TODD: Now, if bin Laden is not heard from for that anniversary of the U.S. airstrikes in Afghanistan, or at any time around the Afghan elections on October 9, one terrorism expert told me that could imply many things. And he said it would be odd if we heard nothing from bin Laden in the coming weeks, Wolf.

BLITZER: Brian Todd, thanks very much. Ominous words from Amin al Zawahiri.

We're continuing to monitor the other story we're following, what's happening atop Mount St. Helens. There has been, as you saw earlier, erupting ash and steam. We're watching this. We'll update you if any new activity unfolds.

Plus this.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BUSH: This nation of ours has a solemn duty to defeat this ideology of hate.

KERRY: We didn't need to rush to war without a plan to win the peace. (END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Round 1 is over, which candidate finished on top? We'll hear from Bush supporter Bernard Kerik and Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart. They'll join me live.

Plus, reaction from around the world. What the international community is saying about the debate and the candidates.

And America's best friend enters the hospital for a heart procedure. An update on British Prime Minister Tony Blair's health. All that coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: More now on the first presidential debate. Who really won the critical first round? We're going to hear from the top Kerry campaign adviser in just a few minutes. First, though, Bernard Kerik is joining us from our New York bureau. He's the former New York City police commissioner. More recently, he was a senior adviser to the Coalition Authority in Iraq. He's now back in New York.

Thanks very much, commissioner, for joining us.

You were there from May to September of last year. Is it fair to say the situation today, as far as internal security is concerned. is worse than it was when you were there?

BERNARD KERIK, FRM. NYC POLICE COMMISSIONER: Well, I think the attacks by insurgency is worse. Internal security, the every day crime issues that we had to deal with early on, I think that has been remediated. I think the terrorism and the insurgents, some of the leftover Baathists and Fedayeen and loyalists to Saddam, they're still there. And that's what they're dealing with today as we see these actions by the coalition members that are going on in Samarra, Fallujah and some of these other places in conjunction with the Iraqi authorities.

BLITZER: But it seems to be getting increasingly worse, and most of the experts, including General Abizaid, among others, suggesting it's even going to get worse between now and January, the end of January, and perhaps beyond, if these elections in Iraq take place as scheduled. Do you accept that assessment?

KERIK: Honestly, Wolf, I do. And if you go back to my interviews with you and others, in the last 9 months, I have said that continually. I agree with General Abizaid. He knows it better than anyone.

Our election and their election, that is the two focal points right now. They're trying to send a message. Trying to really demoralize our will here in this country.

Also, the political debates, the political rhetoric being spewn here, it's not good for the war on terrorism in Iraq, because terrorists today have the ability to watch CNN and other cable stations. And they believe if they continue this fight the way they're doing we will pull out and we will get out of the country.

BLITZER: But does the president have a responsibility to the tell the American people the truth of what's going on, based on what the CIA, his best intelligence, is telling him as opposed to an overly rosy scenario, which is what John Kerry is accusing the president of simply filtering and being overly optimistic when the facts on the ground don't bear that out?

KERIK: Honestly, I look at it from two perspectives. I have a personal interest in this, being somebody that had to bring out 23 members of the NYPD from ground zero, and I was on the ground in Iraq. The president's picture on Iraq isn't rosy, but it is optimistic and it's optimistic based on the Iraqi people, based on the progress we've had so far in the rest of the country and it's based on the commitment that he has to get the job done. This isn't rosy.

If you go back to his speech of September 20, 2001, he said then, and sometimes we forget. John Kerry may not have been paying attention. I think he forgets. The president said it would be long. It would come at a cost. A cost in life. A cost in money. And it wasn't going to be a short-term war. This is a long-term war. That's what you see going on today.

BLITZER: Let me interrupt for a second, though. The 9/11 commission and all the experts have said flatly there was no significant evidence, no evidence at all of any operational collaboration between Saddam Hussein and the then 9/11 terrorists, the al Qaeda network, that did what it did at the World Trade Center, at Pentagon here in Washington and in Pennsylvania. So, there really is no connection between Saddam Hussein, direct connection in 9/11.

KERIK: Well, honestly, Wolf, I've got to tell you, from somebody that was there, in both places, I hope we don't get a president that is only going to look for connections when global terrorism to 9/11. This is about the security of this...

BLITZER: But did he take the eye off the ball, and divert resources, valuable resources from the fight against al Qaeda and Afghanistan and elsewhere and divert those resources to a secondary threat, which was Saddam Hussein.

KERIK: No, I don't think so. And if you talk to General Abizaid, and you talk to Tommy Franks and you talk to the other military commanders, they're the ones on the ground with the strategic information. They don't believe so either.

I wasn't in one of those military commands, but those are the guys that count. Those are the guys that were on the grounds. They don't believe so.

And I think what's important is, we have to be proactive and preemptive. And that's what this president is doing. And God forbid, we don't, because there'll be more attacks in this country, which I don't want to see.

BLITZER: We'll leave it right there. Bernard Kerik, the former police commissioner in New York, thanks very much for joining us.

KERIK: Thanks, Wolf.

BLITZER: Later this hour, we'll here from a Democrat, Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart. He'll join me. He has a very different perspective.

To you, our viewers, here is your chance to weigh in on this story. Our Web question of the day is this. Who do you think won the first U.S. presidential debate? You can vote right now. Go to CNN.com/Wolf. We'll have the results for you later in this broadcast.

Efforts under way right now off the coast of Cape Cod to try to coax a great white shark out of the lagoon it has been circling in for more than a week. You're looking at these pictures from Cape Cod right now. We'll update you on what's happening there.

Plus, playing fast with the facts. Did the candidates stretch the truth in last night's debate? We'll do a reality check.

Plus, the grim discovery that could bring closure to an ongoing mystery.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back. Fact-checking the first presidential debate. Did the candidates get it right? We'll review. Plus, new poll numbers on which man one.

First, though, a quick check of some other stories now in the news.

Scientists along the coast of Massachusetts are trying to coax a great white shark out to sea. You're looking at these live pictures. They're live from Massachusetts where nets and electronic repellent devices have been strung in a bid to disrupt the shark's swimming patterns. The goal is to get the shark to swim through an inlet between islands and then out into the ocean. We'll watch this story for you. There it is.

Police in Salt Lake City have found human remains in a landfill where they've been searching for a body of the missing woman Lori Hacking. Investigators are trying to identify the remains. Hacking disappeared July 18. Her husband, Mark, has been charged with her murder.

The British prime minister, Tony Blair, is expected to spend the weekend relaxing at No. 10 Downing Street after undergoing a procedure to correct a sometimes irregular heartbeat. This morning's hospital procedure lasted about two hours and Blair was released early. Doctors say he is expected, expected, to make a complete recovery.

Keeping you informed, CNN, the most trusted name in news. In the wake of the first presidential debate, it looks like most Americans thought Senator John Kerry performed better. In a CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, 53 percent said Kerry won the debate; 37 percent said President Bush won it.

And even though there weren't any huge factual mistakes, both President Bush and Senator Kerry did stretch the truth a little bit or conveniently leave out some facts in the face-off.

Here is a closer look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): By and large, the two candidates avoided any really egregious blunders, but at times they came close. The president, for example, when he said this of the creator of the Pakistani nuclear bomb, Abdul Qadeer Khan, who also sold banned nuclear material to Libya, North Korea other so-called rogue states.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The A.Q. network has been brought to justice.

BLITZER: Rolled up rather than brought to justice would have been a better phrase, since Khan was immediately given a blanket pardon by President Pervez Musharraf. Pakistan even has refused to allow Khan, who lives in a grand villa, to be questioned by the representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Then there was this.

BUSH: Seventy-five percent of known al Qaeda leaders have been brought to justice.

BLITZER: That's the CIA estimate. Among terror specialists, it has been questioned. But more significantly, they say, the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq has resulted in thousands of new al Qaeda recruits and sympathizers around the world.

BUSH: Ten million people have registered to vote in Afghanistan in the upcoming presidential election.

BLITZER: Here, too, critics suggest that number has been inflated. The group Human Rights Watch accuse Afghan authorities of allowing multiple registration of voters.

And then there was this apparent appeal for votes among American Jews and other supporters of Israel.

BUSH: A free Iraq will help secure Israel.

BLITZER: Here, too, critics insist Palestinian opposition to Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza is likely to continue irrespective of what happens in Iraq.

Kerry had his share of questionable assertions as well, including this on Osama bin Laden. SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Unfortunately, he escaped in the mountains of Tora Bora. We had him surrounded. But we didn't use American forces, the best trained in the world, to go kill him. The president relied on Afghan warlords that he outsourced that job to. That's wrong.

BLITZER: But retired U.S. Army General Tommy Franks, now a Bush supporter, insists it was never certain that bin Laden was in Tora Bora.

RET. GEN. TOMMY FRANKS, FORMER CENTCOM COMMANDER: The fact of the matter is, within 72 hours of the time we receiving reporting on where Osama bin Laden was in Tora Bora, I received similar reporting everyplace from Baluchistan to a lake up to the northwest of Kandahar.

BLITZER: Kerry also charges that Bush got rid of U.S. Army Chief of Staff Eric Shinseki because he recommended that lots more U.S. troops would be needed to secure Iraq, a position the president and his advisers supposedly didn't want to hear.

KERRY: Instead of listening to him, they retired him.

BLITZER: But, in fact, Shinseki served out his full four years as chief of staff, a point acknowledged by former NATO Commander Wesley Clark, himself a Kerry supporter.

WESLEY CLARK (D), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: But what Rumsfeld did to him was, he named his successor a full year in advance in a way that basically cut Shinseki's legs out from under him inside the very sensitive bureaucracy of the Pentagon.

BLITZER: And, finally, there was this verbal gaffe.

KERRY: And I was probably one of the first senators, along with Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire, a former senator, go down into the KGB underneath Treblinka Square and see reams of files with names in them.

BLITZER: Treblinka was a Nazi death camp. Kerry meant to say Lubyanka, the notorious Soviet KGB prison in Moscow.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: And we've looked at how Americans are reacting to last night's presidential debate, but let's take a closer look and see how people overseas around the world are reacting to the debate.

CNN's Zain Verjee joining us now live with more on that -- Zain.

ZAIN VERJEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, many people overseas either stayed up late or got up early to watch the debate. They're watching the U.S. election campaign closely with the view that they, too, have a stake in the election outcome.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BUSH: You can be realistic and optimistic at the same time.

KERRY: ...tons of unsecured materials still in the...

BUSH: ...the American people to do everything I can to protect us.

VERJEE: Many Europeans stayed up past 4:00 a.m. to watch the debate. Britain's ITN reported that the president didn't make major mistakes.

At the offices of "Le Monde" in Paris, foreign editor Francoise Bonet (ph) said Kerry had emerged as a credible candidate with a concrete foreign policy vision. And on the streets of Paris, one student was heartened by Kerry's perspective.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He spoke about America with international vision and so this appeals to European public.

VERJEE: Russians, too, were following events at Coral Gables. One Moscow resident had a novel twist on conventional wisdom.

He was hoping for a Bush win, as it was easier for Russia to establish a relationship with the Republicans. The Democrats always disappointed Russia, he said.

Few editorials suggested that there had been a decisive outcome. London's "Financial Times" Web site said the debate was a tie, where there was no single moment which sealed the debate for one man. Most Arab media declared Kerry the winner, because he was more convincing, Al-Jazeera's Washington reporter saying Kerry came across as informed about the information in Iraq.

Some Iraqis stayed up until the small hours of the morning to watch and were quick to offer their opinions.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): We hope that Bush will win to honor his promises and eliminate terror.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): We support Kerry, because he says if he wins the elections, he will withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq. Bush wouldn't.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VERJEE: Wolf, interest in the debate also high in Asia, where people watched it on Friday morning. Japanese and South Korean news channels focused their coverage much more on differing Bush-Kerry positions on handling North Korea -- Wolf.

BLITZER: CNN's Zain Verjee reporting with the reaction from around the world. Zain, thanks very much.

The presidential debates, who won and who lost? We heard from the Republicans. Now senior Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart, he'll join us with the Democrats' perspective. Next up, the vice presidential debate. How important is it to the campaign? Our political analyst, Carlos Watson, has "The Inside Edge."

Plus, we'll show you some more amazing images from Mount Saint Helens, erupting for the first time in 18 years.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: More now on the presidential debate last night. Earlier, we spoke to Bernard Kerik, the former New York City police commissioner. He's a Bush supporter.

For the other side of the story, we have Joe Lockhart, a senior adviser to the Kerry campaign. He's joining us from the Kerry campaign headquarters. A lot of our viewers, of course, remember him as the White House press secretary during the Clinton administration.

Joe, thanks very much for joining us.

JOE LOCKHART, KERRY CAMPAIGN ADVISER: Good to be here, Wolf.

BLITZER: Let's talk about a couple of factual things that the Democratic candidate said last night. Eric Shinseki, the Army chief of staff, he served his full four years as Army chief of staff. He wasn't forced to retire.

LOCKHART: Listen, I think Wes Clark put it the best. The Pentagon has a way when they have Missouri who they think steps out of line, is saying something publicly that the president doesn't want to hear and, you know, as Wes Clark said, they announced his replacement a year early and by all effects, he was retired.

BLITZER: But he served his full four years. I think the candidate should be a little bit more precise in his words, don't you think?

LOCKHART: Well, listen, I think that everybody around town knows what happened here. And I don't think there's been a forceful pushback on this in the year and a half or two years since it happened.

I think now they're just looking to find anything that they can find some factual problem with.

BLITZER: General Franks, you heard him say, Tommy Franks, there was no hard evidence, no definitive word that Osama bin Laden was cornered with 1,000 of his guys in Tora Bora. There was a report, but there were reports he could have been in Baluchistan or Kandahar or elsewhere around the same time. Does Senator Kerry have hard evidence to the contrary?

LOCKHART: Well, there were many reports, not just one report, that he was in this area.

And I think Senator Kerry's view is, if there's a credible report that Osama bin Laden is hiding someplace, you send the best. You don't send some Afghan warlords to do your job for you. So even if he wasn't there, if they had credible reports, which Tommy Franks admitted they did, you send the best. That was the point.

BLITZER: The senator also complained in a memorable moment last night how the president sent American soldiers into war, battle, without the body armor, the Humvees, the protection that they really needed. If he was so concerned about the protection of these soldiers, why did he vote against the $87 billion, part of which was designed to give them better body armor, better protection?

LOCKHART: Listen, it is a fact that these troops went in, 10,000 out of 12,000 Humvees not reinforced with armor, soldiers going in, I think something like one in four or one in three soldiers not having the state-of-the-art Kevlar to protect themselves, the right kind of body armor.

This was before we went in. The $87 billion was after. And I think, as John Kerry talked about last night, it was about whether we were going to put this off and put the bill to our children or whether we do something more reasonable, pay for it now, ask for the wealthiest Americans, who had gotten a huge tax windfall, to pay for it. That is what that was about.

John Kerry as always supported the troops. Everyone knows that. He supported them because he was one. He volunteered and went to Vietnam, put his life on the line. He understands what it's like to be out there and how to support the troops.

BLITZER: I want you to correct the record, if you want to, a lot of reports quoting you as saying that this was a draw last night.

LOCKHART: Yes.

Listen, I think all of you in the journalism business should be a little bit careful about listening to The Drudge Report. Everyone says, oh, we don't, we don't, but you do. And you read it.

I was in the spin room last night when Mike McCurry asked me what the Republicans were saying about the event. What was their spin? And I turned to him and said, they say it's a draw. That's what the consensus is.

Matt Drudge and the Republican operatives seized on that, twisted my words and turned it around. It just shows how pathetic they are, Wolf. It really is pathetic. And I think everyone in the news business should take a deep breath and decide, maybe we should report on this. You guys all know my phone number. You can call me up and ask me.

BLITZER: All right, and we do. We invited you on this program today.

LOCKHART: Good.

BLITZER: Joe Lockhart, as usual, thanks very much for joining us.

LOCKHART: Thanks, Wolf.

BLITZER: We want to update our viewers on a story we reported earlier this hour, new information just coming into CNN right now. Salt Lake City police say Lori Hacking's remains have, indeed, been found.

The authorities say they used dental records to confirm that the remains found at a county landfill are, indeed, those of Lori Hacking. The 27-year-old woman has been missing since July 18. Her husband, who reported her missing the next day, has since been charged with her murder.

The No. 2 men preparing to take center stage. The vice presidential debate could be even tougher than the presidential debate was last night. It comes up Tuesday night. Will sparks fly? Our Carlos Watson has "The Inside Edge." He's coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Up next in election 2004, the vice presidential debate, Senator John Edwards taking on the incumbent, Dick Cheney.

For "The Inside Edge," we're joined now by CNN political analyst Carlos Watson, joining us today from Chicago.

Set the scene for us. What do you expect Tuesday night in Cleveland?

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, you know what's so interesting, Wolf, is that often vice presidential debates are ignored, even if they have great one-liners like in 1988 with Lloyd Bentsen and Dan Quayle.

But this one I expect more people to watch. I expect north of 40 million, as opposed to 28 or 29 million. And, Wolf, I expect this to be an incredibly aggressive debate. Yesterday, the two presidential contenders were relatively polite. They weren't as aggressive. I expect to hear more cross words between John Edwards and Vice President Cheney.

The other interesting thing, I think, will be the strategy. I think for Vice President Cheney, you'll find that instead of debating John Edwards, he really will be making points that challenge John Kerry. And so in many ways, he'll take an opportunity to try and continue the job that President Bush did.

In a very interesting way, I think you'll see John Edwards do the same thing and try and drive home points, particularly on Iraq, but also, by the way, on the issue of outsourcing.

BLITZER: Carlos, we're now getting word from Nielsen, 62.4 million people, Americans, watched the debate last night. That's a larger number than a lot of us thought.

WATSON: Certainly.

You know, in fact, we talked, Wolf, that we did expect, that, like so many things in this election, things would increase. That's 15 million more people, about 33 percent more, than who watched the first debate in 2000.

Interesting couple of things to think about, though, in the aftermath of the debate, the so-called spin game. I think the spin game, Wolf, this year is a very different spin game than what we saw in 2000, for a couple reasons. One, as we just said, 33 percent more people watched it. So it's harder to spin people who actually have firsthand knowledge.

No. 2, there are more players in the spin game who ultimately can decide what the final judgment on this debate was in terms of who was the winner. And I'm particularly thinking about blogs, but I'm also thinking about talk radio, not just conservative, but liberal talk radio.

And then one of the interesting things that is happening -- and you profiled some of this on the show earlier tonight -- is that we are beginning to care more about international perspectives, whether those come through Web sites, TV channels, etcetera. And so I think the spin game, which will continue at least through Sunday, I think will be furious.

But there will be more participants and I think it will be a different spin game than the one we saw in 2000, which, by the way, President Bush won thoroughly, the spin game, that is.

BLITZER: Were you surprised, Carlos, by some of the things we didn't hear last night?

WATSON: I guess I was.

There were two things that stood out, in particular. A conversation about foreign policy you would have thought would have more heavily involved the most populous nation on the face of the world, namely, China. And particularly given the growing trade deficit that we have with China, not to mention a number of other issues, including intellectual privacy and even AIDS, by the way, you thought would have come up. But we didn't hear much mention of China, if any, so, China certainly won.

And the other issue that I just highlighted was AIDS. AIDS, believe it or not, is a more foreign policy issue than some think.

BLITZER: Carlos Watson with "The Inside Edge" for us, as he does every Friday here on this program. Thanks, Carlos.

WATSON: Good to see you.

BLITZER: See you in Cleveland Tuesday.

And the results of our Web question of the day, that's coming up next. Plus, releasing steam. Those are amazing pictures we saw from Mount St. Helens. And it was captured all live.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Here is how you're weighing in on our Web question of the day. Look at this, Bush 22, Kerry 71, even matched, 7 percent. Remember, this is not a scientific poll.

Now our picture of the day and worth another look, Mount Saint Helens in Washington state erupting earlier today, sending a column of ash and steam almost two miles into the sky. The eruption came after days of rumblings deep inside the volcano and lasted about 20 minutes. Scientists described it, though, as a hiccup. We'll watch to see if it hiccups again.

This programming note. Next week, we'll have special coverage of the second presidential debate and the first and only vice presidential debate.

Please join me this weekend on Sunday for "LATE EDITION." Among my special guests, the national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, Sunday, noon Eastern.

"LOU DOBBS TONIGHT" starts right now.

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