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CNN Wolf Blitzer Reports

Bush, Kerry Campaign in Florida; Flu Shot Shortage May Influence Presidential Election

Aired October 18, 2004 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


WOLF BLITZER, HOST: Happening now. President Bush is about to touch down here in Florida, his 31st state visit to the Sunshine State since winning the White House four years ago. Not surprisingly Senator Kerry has been spending the day in Florida as well. New polls show this state once again very much up for grabs.
Stand by for hard news on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): Battling in the battleground states.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Senator Kerry has a record, the kind to weaken American intelligence. I'm working every day to strengthen American intelligence.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Despite the president's arrogant boasting that he has done everything right in Iraq and he's made no mistakes, the truth is beginning to catch up with him.

BLITZER: Terror team. Will a pledge of allegiance lead to a new wave of violence in Iraq?

Fifteen days to go but some voters are already voting.

Shot shortage.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm sorry this is becoming a political issue. This is really a health issue.

BLITZER:: Influenza and the election.

ANNOUNCER: This is WOLF BLITZER REPORTS for Monday, October 18, 2004.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: With just over two weeks to election day, President Bush seems to have bounced back from his debates with Democratic candidate John Kerry. Polls now showing Senator Kerry closed the gap during those faceoffs, the original faceoffs turning the race into a dead heat. But now a poll of polls taken during the past few days shows the president has regained the lead. Our average of five major national polls shows the president ahead by some five percentage points. Both campaigns are targeting battleground states which could go either way, among them Florida where the last election was decided. Senator Kerry is there, the president arriving in Florida once again any minute now. Earlier, the president preached to the party faithful in New Jersey. We'll have a full report on that coming up.

We begin, though, with Senator Kerry. Let's go live to our national correspondent Frank Buckley. He is joining us in Tampa -- Frank.

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATL. CORRESPONDENT: Senator Kerry here in Tampa to deliver one of a series of speeches that Kerry aides are calling closing arguments of the campaign as the election season winds down. Election day now just about two weeks away. Senator Kerry also taking this opportunity here to in addition to talking about healthcare, which was the topic of the day, to criticize President Bush on Iraq. The senator picking up on a "Washington Post" article today that the former top commander in Iraq, Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez complained of dire supply shortages to the Pentagon that threatened effective combat operations in the winter of 2003. Senator Kerry using the article to press his argument that President Bush misled Americans on Iraq.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KERRY: Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez argued last winter that without increased supplies and these are his words, "I cannot continue to support sustained combat operations." The day after General Sanchez wrote his letter, George Bush went out and told the American people our troops were properly equipped. Despite the president's arrogant boasting that he has done everything right in Iraq and that he's made no mistakes, the truth is beginning to catch up with him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BUCKLEY: Now Bush campaign officials said this was an instance of Senator Kerry once again grasping at headlines as they put it. They said this was hypocritical coming from Senator Kerry given his vote against $87 billion in post war funding in Iraq. Meanwhile here in Florida, it is the first day of voting in this election as early voting gets underway. Earlier today Senator Kerry was in West Palm Beach where he looked for support from senior citizens, helping them get into a van as they were taken to some of the polls to begin the voting. Senator Kerry saying to them and to other supporters that it was best to vote now, to vote early so that people won't have to stay up too late on November 2 -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Frank Buckley in Florida for us. Thanks, Frank, very much.

Let's get a report now on the president's day. For that we turn to our White House correspondent, Dana Bash.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Fifteen days out, a carefully calculated trip to New Jersey, a state that hasn't voted Republican in three elections. The president laid into John Kerry as weak on a crucial issue here, terrorism.

BUSH: My opponent has a fundamental misunderstanding of the war on terror. A reporter recently asked Senator Kerry how September 11 changed him. He replied, it didn't change me much at all.

BASH: In a blistering speech the president ticked through his opponent's Senate record and campaign statements saying Kerry would hurt Americans by playing defense with terrorists not offense.

BUSH: Senator Kerry's approach would permit a response only after America is hit. This kind of September the 10th attitude is no way to protect our country.

BASH: The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows terrorism tops the issues determining which candidate voters will choose with the economy slightly behind. The president's advantage on terrorism is still larger than on any other issue, 22 points over John Kerry. This speech was about making sure that lead doesn't slip. And Mr. Bush repeatedly tied terrorism to Iraq. He accused Kerry of having a policy of protest and defeatism.

BUSH: He refuses to acknowledge progress or praise the growing democratic spirit in Iraq.

BASH: Kerry aides say the president distorted his record to play the politics of fear. John Edwards in Florida...

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He's exploiting a national tragedy for personal gain and it's the lowest kind of politics.

BASH: Mr. Bush lost New Jersey big last time around and has not really competed for its 15 electoral votes which have looked solid for Kerry. Now some polls have Kerry's lead slipping. Others show a dead heat. The Garden State lost some 700 residents on September 11 and experts say Mr. Bush's leadership on terrorism is responsible for his surprise surge here.

(on camera): The Bush campaign sees this trip as a two-fer. First taunt the Kerry campaign in the hopes they spend some money in a state that should be solidly theirs. But also come to southern New Jersey a Philadelphia media market in hopes of having some play in an area that could determine Pennsylvania which both sides agree is very much a battleground state. Dana bash, CNN, New Jersey.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Call it the stick and the carrot. As U.S. forces hammer insurgent targets, Iraq's interim government is offering insurgents more time to trade their weapons for cash. CNN's Karl Penhaul reports from Baghdad.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The piles of rubble just keep on growing in the rebel held city of Fallujah. This is wreckage from a weekend air strike. Almost daily, U.S. war planes pound what coalition authorities say are suspected hideouts of Iraq and al Qaeda-linked foreign fighters there. Even so Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi still hoping for a political fix to Iraq's guerrilla war so he's announced he's extending the week-old program to buy back insurgent weapons from a single Baghdad neighborhood to the rest of the country.

AYAD ALLAWI, IRAQI INTERIM PRIME MINISTER: We are working to expand this process which that been extended to the coming Thursday to include all of the country because of the success that was achieved in the Sadr City.

PENHAUL: While Allawi views the arms for cash buy back as a model, U.S. army commanders say they are only cautiously optimistic. U.S. forces are especially ken to see insurgents across Iraq turning so-called heavy weapons like these. U.S. troops see these homemade missile and rocket launchers made of plastic and metal tubes after attacks on U.S. bases around Baghdad, they say they are deadly but highly inaccurate.

GEN. JEFF HAMMOND, U.S. ARMY: One third of the time he gets into our camps to terrorize us. There's minor casualties. Two thirds of the time he's probably killing Iraqi citizens.

PENHAUL: Military and political analysts say Iraq's anti- coalition insurgency is getting better coordinated and adapting its fighting techniques. With nationwide elections planned for January Allawi hasn't much time for patience.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is an elephant we're eating and we eat an elephant one bite at a time. We're very encouraged about the prospects for the upcoming election in January. There's a lot of work that has to be done.

PENHAUL: With the extended weapons amnesty Allawi may be playing one of his last political cards. After that analysts expect him to send in Iraqi and coalition forces to wipe out remaining resistance strongholds by force. And if that happens, it will surely mean more rubble in Fallujah. Karl Penhaul, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: The main U.S. target in Iraq nowadays is Abu Musab al- Zarqawi. This weekend, his terror group declared its devotion to Osama bin Laden. Let's turn to our national security correspondent David Ensor -- David.

DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATL. SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, U.S. officials, U.S. intelligence officials are watching this one closely and they say it could be significant.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) (voice-over): U.S. officials are calling credible the claim on Islamist websites that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the terrorist leader in Iraq has sworn allegiance to Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda, a group with which Zarqawi has sometimes competed in the past for resources. The website statement from Zarqawi's Tawhid wal Jihad group says, quote, "we will listen to your orders. If you ask us to join the war we will do it and we will listen to your instructions. If you stop us from doing something, we will abide by your instructions."

STEVEN SIMON, RAND CORP.: If Zarqawi is now perceived to be the protege of the great prince, the real leader of the jihad, the great slayer of Americans, well, it has to inevitably increase Zarqawi's status within Iraq and win him more converts.

ENSOR: U.S. officials say for bin Laden, the move presents him as having someone doing his bidding on the ground in Iraq.

SIMON: You know the old saying a shark needs to keep moving forward in the water or else it dies, well, the same thing with terrorist chieftains.

ENSOR: For Zarqawi, it associates him with the most successful terrorist ever, reflected glory.

ROMAN GUNARATNA, TERRORISM EXPERT: Zarqawi wants to be in Iraq like Osama was in Afghanistan. Zarqawi wants to be the successor to Osama bin Laden. He wants to do operations not only in Iraq but outside Iraq.

ENSOR: U.S. officials confirm that, among other places, Zarqawi traveled to Iran before the war. They say there's no evidence, though, that Iranian officials are helping him, and it better stay that way.

RICHARD BOUCHER, STATE DEPT. SPOKESMAN: Were it to be found that Iran was providing particular support for this terrorist group, obviously that would be a very, very serious matter.

ENSOR (voice-over): The U.S. officials say Zarqawi does have connections with cells in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, and that is why, they say, U.S. forces are trying so hard to bottle him up in Iraq and then to neutralizer him -- Wolf?

BLITZER: David Ensor, thanks very much. Neutralize meaning kill him.

ENSOR: Or take him out in some other way. If they can capture him alive, they'd be happy to do that.

BLITZER: All right, David. Thank you very much.

Democratic Presidential Candidate John Kerry today sharply criticized President Bush for ignoring a report from his top general in Iraq about shortages of key supplies. Our senior Pentagon correspondent Jamie McIntyre is joining us now live with the latest -- Jamie? JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, while the Kerry campaign is using this memo as ammunition against the Bush administration, the Pentagon has a different portrayal. They say the memo shows that when U.S. commanders ask for help, they get it.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(voice-over): Battling an unexpectedly tenacious insurgency, the top commander in Iraq, Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez, found himself last December facing critical shortages of spare parts and body armor. In particular, tanks and other equipment were wearing out faster than they could be repaired.

A lack of parts was cutting into the Army readiness standard of 90 percent. Readiness rates for Abrams tanks dropped to 84 percent. Bradley Fighting Vehicles, 85 percent. And depending on the model, only between 63 and 72 percent of the Army's helicopters were combat ready.

On December 4th, 2003, General Sanchez fired off an urgent memo to Army Vice Chief General George Casey at the Pentagon. "Frankly, we a re struggling just to maintain these relatively low readiness rates," wrote Sanchez. "I cannot continue to support sustained combat operations with rates this low." And he appealed to Casey to cut through any red tape, concluding with, "I cannot sustain readiness without Army-level intervention."

General Casey, who is now the top commander in Iraq, answered nine days later, saying he shared Sanchez's concern. In a December 13th response, Casey outlined actions he said were already underway, to speed the delivery of supplies to Iraq and ensure that every U.S. soldier would have full body armor within six weeks, a goal the Army says was met.

The Pentagon argues the exchange shows that it quickly heeded the request of military commanders to respond to a changing situation on the ground and meet the needs of U.S. troops.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(on camera): While the Kerry campaign says the memo shows that U.S. troops were ill equipped at a time President Bush was saying something different in public, the Pentagon says that this memo -- which was first reported by "The Washington Post" -- shows something quite different. In fact the "Post" says in their story that they got the memo from someone who disagrees with the Bush administration's handling of Iraq, but who insisted the motivation was simply dismay that front line troops were not adequately supplied -- Wolf?

BLITZER: Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon. Jamie, thanks very much.

The president of the United States now on the ground in Florida, his 31st visit to the Sunshine State since becoming president, taking no chances whatsoever. As four years ago, as could be the case this time, Florida could be decisive. One of those key battleground states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Air Force One has just touched down. We're looking at a live picture of the president on the tarmac getting ready to continue with his campaigning. President Bush certainly determined to make sure that Florida remains in his column. He won that state by a mere 537 votes four years ago. We'll continue to watch the president. We're also watching Senator Kerry.

We'll also have more on the situation in Iraq coming up, and the new statement of allegiance to bin Laden by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's terrorist group. I'll speak live with the former U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen.

Plus, flu politics -- both sides say they'll fix the vaccine shortage problem, but do their plans really differ?

Recognizing the ad gap -- why voters in some states may be getting the wrong message.

Mission refused -- allegations of Army Reservists balking at orders to drive their fuel convoy in Iraq. I'll speak live with the father of one of the soldiers involved in this incident.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: With a little more than two weeks before the Election Day, it may not come as much of a surprise that the flu vaccine shortage has now become a very hot political issue. Our medical correspondent Elizabeth Cohen is at the CNN Center in Atlanta. She's following the story -- Elizabeth?

ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, it started out really as just a public health concern, but now the lack of flu shots -- or the shortage of flu shots, I should say, has become a political concern, as well.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(voice-over): Long lines for flu shots one day make for political ads...

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A George Bush mess.

E. COHEN: ... and speeches the next.

The candidates have officially caught the flu. Both sides say they have plans to solve the problems with the system. Right now, flu shots are made by private pharmaceutical companies. They sell the shots to places like doctor's offices, supermarkets, and local health departments. But here's the hitch: Pharmaceutical companies don't make much money off of flu shots, so many have simply gone out of the business.

In years past, some four companies have made flu shots for the U.S., now there are only two. And when one company has contamination problems, as the Chiron Company did this year, nearly half the nation's supply becomes unusable.

The head of the Centers for Disease Control, Dr. Julie Gerberding.

DR. JULIE GERBERDING, CDC: We've got to create a market for these manufacturers. We've got to reimburse them at a fair price. And we have to give them some liability protection.

This process is risky business. And the reason so many manufacturers have dropped out is that they just can't make business sense out of the enterprise.

E. COHEN: Democratic hopeful John Kerry blames President Bush for the shortage.

KERRY: I understand there was some senior citizens who came out to listen to President Bush the other day and he gave them the standard speech about prayer and flu shots. And that's the way it works. Under his plan, you don't have a prayer of getting a flu shot, ladies and gentlemen. I think there's one thing that we can all agree on here that if Halliburton made flu shots, you'd have more flu shots here than there are oranges in the state of Florida.

E. COHEN: And both Kerry and the Bush administration offered plans which surprisingly call for similar actions. Work with manufacturers to get a larger supply of vaccines, establish government stockpiles of vaccines, and increase research for new ways to make vaccines.

In the old way, the way it's done now, flu vaccine is grown inside chicken eggs. It's a tedious process and takes months. New methods could be quicker so manufacturers could more easily respond in case of an emergency, in cases like this year when half the supply suddenly can't be used, and so people who need flu shots are left waiting in line.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

E. COHEN: Some health care experts have another way of looking at this situation. They say to solve the problem, the government should simply take over vaccine production, making flu shots themselves -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Elizabeth Cohen with some important information for us. Thanks, Elizabeth, very much.

To our viewers, here's your chance to weigh in on the story. Our Web "Question of the Day" is this: Could the flu vaccine shortage become a health crisis? You can vote, go to cnn.com/wolf. We'll have the results a little bit later in this broadcast.

Terror connection and a frightening new pledge to Osama bin Laden made by the group responsible for several beheadings and attacks against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq.

Returned to the battlefield and a life of terror. A disturbing update on some former Gauntanamo Bay detainees.

And speaking out ahead of the election, tough words today from Al Gore against his former opponent. We'll have details.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Two top U.S. enemies may be teaming up. How important is that oath of allegiance apparently made by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to Osama bin Laden? Joining us now from New York, our world affairs analyst, the former defense secretary, William Cohen.

Mr. Secretary, thanks for joining us. This potentially sounds at least on the surface as if it could be a pretty big deal.

WILLIAM COHEN, CNN WORLD AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, we have known for some time that Zarqawi has tried to establish links with bin Laden ever since last January. I think that the intelligence community has been trying to follow this and they think that those links were at least under negotiation, discussion.

It could represent two things. Number one, it could show that Zarqawi is under heavy pressure coming from the coalition forces and the interim government now that there's a much greater offensive under way and that he may be taking more losses than he anticipated. And so it might be a call for bin Laden to help him in some way through his organization.

That could be one aspect. The other is simply a consolidation of the terror groups trying to marshal as many forces as they can and send a signal that he is now going to be the No. 2 man in this holy war that they are waging against the West.

BLITZER: Is there -- do you get a sense that the so-called foreign terrorists who are now operating in Iraq, that they are the bulk of the insurgency or is this homegrown Iraqis themselves, Saddam loyalists?

W. COHEN: I think it's still hard to say. Right now it's a combination of all of the above. But clearly the people of Iraq seem to be tiring of the war that is going on. And they are trying to throw out the foreign insurgents as such, the foreign jihadists, and that would be Zarqawi's group. So it may be that he's losing support with the Iraqi insurgents and they are suffering great losses and the people themselves want him out. And so this may be an attempt again to consolidate the various groups under one umbrella, that of bin Laden.

BLITZER: I have had some conversations the past couple of days with high ranking U.S. civilian and military personnel who are deeply involved in the situation in Iraq. And they say, yes, the insurgency, it seems to be getting worse, terrorism on the rise even in the so- called Green Zone, but you know what, they are pretty optimistic that the elections will take place at the end of July (sic).

W. COHEN: A lot depends on how much success we have in cracking down on the insurgent groups. There has been a much more aggressive posture taken. The question remains, will the United States and coalition forces and those of the Iraqi interim government forces go into Falluja before the election or after?

It's going to require a good deal more of warmaking capability and there will be a lot of casualties certainly on the part of the Iraqis involved, and perhaps even on the part of the coalition forces. Whether President Bush is going to take that step before the election or seek to try and do it after the election remains to be seen.

From a military perspective, if there is momentum under way, you certainly want to take advantage of that and not give the insurgents or Zarqawi two weeks or three weeks to regather his forces.

BLITZER: As a former defense secretary, what went through your mind when you heard that a group of U.S. Army reservists, about 18 of them, had refused an order to lead a fuel convoy in the Sunni Triangle because they said it was simply too dangerous, the trucks weren't armored, the fuel was contaminated and they just simply said no, a full scale investigation now under way, what do you make of this?

W. COHEN: Well, it's very distressing. I think that we have all learned in looking back that there were insufficient supplies that were going to our troops. We have had several reports coming out no less from General Sanchez and also from Paul Bremer indicating that they were inadequate numbers and inadequate supplies.

Those may have been corrected. But this may be only one isolated example, that's something that the investigation is going to have to clarify. This represents a breakdown in good order in discipline that individual soldiers cannot make the decision in terms of whether or not they can carry out a mission. Otherwise if that spreads it is certainly going to affect the military capability and it's something that's not desirable.

So they may have a very strong case to say that they were unarmed and incapable of carrying out a mission, but that has to come from the commanders. They have to be accountable. But this can't go unattended to and hopefully we'll find out whether it's an isolated example or whether it's much more widespread, in which case we have a serious problem to contend with.

BLITZER: Secretary Cohen, thanks very much.

W. COHEN: Thank you, Wolf.

BLITZER: Fifteen days and counting, the presidential election takes places in some two weeks. Some voters are casting their ballots early.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, it doesn't feel weird at all. It feels wonderful to know that my vote has been cast.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Will we see a repeat of the election of 2000? Or is America ready for a smooth election this time around?

If you live in a blue state or a red state, chances are you are not being inundated with campaign commercials. We'll tell you why there is an ad gap, at least in some states.

Plus, the patient patient, an update how the former President Bill Clinton is recovering from quadruple bypass surgery. His wife, Senator Clinton, speaks out about that today. We'll tell you what she said.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back.

Beating the crowds, several states allowing voters to cast their ballots beginning today. We'll show you where and why.

First, though, a quick check of some other stories now in the news.

The Pentagon says at least seven former prisoners held at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba have returned to terrorism. At least two are believed to have been killed in fighting in Afghanistan and a third recaptured during a raid of a suspected training camp. Officials say most of the more than 200 other prisoners freed so far have not returned to the battlefield.

Democratic lawmakers in Texas have something to smile about. The Supreme Court today ordered a lower court to reconsider a controversial congressional redistricting plan in Texas. The newly drawn districts could give Republicans six more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Texas Republican lawmakers forced the changes after two walk-outs by the Democrats last year. But the court's ruling does not affect next month's elections.

Keeping you informed, CNN, the most trusted name in news.

Election Day is still more than two weeks away, but balloting has already begun in some states, drawing some very familiar faces to the polls.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): Former first lady Barbara Bush, along with the former President Bush, casting their ballots in Houston today, making no secret how they voted.

GEORGE H.W. BUSH, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Of course it's such an honor and privilege to be voting for him. But we don't want to be campaigning in here. So I better be careful.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What do you think of the campaign?

G.H.W. BUSH: I think it's great. I think we're going to win big. BLITZER: Texas is among four states where early voting starts today. The others are Colorado, Arkansas, and Florida. They join seven other states, all battlegrounds, where the balloting has already begun, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. With interest in the election high and a large number of first-time voters expected, early balloting is one way to avoid long lines on Election Day.

But in Florida, source of so much turmoil in the last presidential election, early voting revealed reform still has a way to go. There were reports of incomplete absentee ballots, as well as computer glitches.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The problem here is that there is a problem with the connection with the mainframe computer.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The first day of early voting. We do have some technical things that need to be worked out. And I think that's just almost the nature of the beast, but we're on top of it and hopefully we're going to get it taken care of in short order.

BLITZER: Overall, early voters said they were pleased with the process. But with memories of the 2000 Florida fiasco still fresh, some remain cautious.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I wanted to get it over with. And it feels good. I got it over with and it's done. And I hope it makes a difference. I hope it's counted.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: This time around, Colorado is a battleground state, even though Denver's "Rocky Mountain News" released a poll today showing President Bush with a five-point lead. John Kerry has not conceded the state, by any means. In fact, he's scheduled to campaign in Colorado on Saturday.

CNN's Anderson Cooper is with the CNN Election Express at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

Give us a little sense, Anderson. What is going on in Colorado?

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, you are right.

As you said, Senator Kerry will be here on Saturday, campaigning with Ken Salazar, the Democratic representative who -- the attorney general who is trying to be the senator here. It's a very tight race in that.

We're going to look at those poll numbers in a second. First I want to show you the national electorate vote, as we can project it at this point. Let's show that map, President Bush, 277 electoral votes if the election was held today, 261 for Senator Kerry. But, again, a state like Colorado, with its nine electoral votes, could make the difference. And the race here considered close, though, as you said, that poll out today shows President Bush in the lead, largely based they think on women voters.

But there are a lot of unknowns at this point. There are a lot of Hispanic voters who are newly registered who it is not clear yet how many of them will actually come out to the polls and which way they will also cast their vote. Let's also show you a new poll out today regarding the Senate race here in Colorado.

The choice for U.S. Senate, Ken Salazar, the attorney general, Pete Coors, Republican. Among registered voters, Salazar 51 percent, 45 percent for Coors. Among likely voters, though, the race much closer, 49 percent to 48 percent.

Also want to show you new poll numbers out, CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup polls, regarding this controversial measure to change the way Colorado allocates electoral votes. Most people, though, believe this will not pass here at this point, for among registered voters, 43, 47 percent against, 53 percent against among likely voters, a very controversial measure that, if it did, in fact pass, could have national implications, Wolf.

BLITZER: Anderson Cooper reporting from Colorado.

And this note, "ANDERSON COOPER 360" tonight 7:00 p.m. Eastern live from Colorado, much more on what is happening there, as well as elsewhere around the nation and around the world, a little bit more than an hour from now, "ANDERSON COOPER 360."

Both presidential campaigns are spending heavily on advertising, but not everyone around the country is seeing those ads.

Our Brian Todd is joining us now live to explain.

What is going on, Brian?

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, only not everyone, Wolf, but quite a few million people are not seeing those ads. It's all about targeting demographic and battleground states and, some argue, taking votes for granted.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TODD (voice-over): To many of us, it seems like a deluge.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm John Kerry and I approve this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm George W. Bush and I approve this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP) JAMES THURBER, AUTHOR, "CROWDED AIRWAVES": We're setting a record for the amount of money that we are spending on ads.

TODD: Do these records mean George W. Bush and John Kerry have been everywhere on the air month after month market after market? It depends on where you live.

CNN's tracking shows the presidential candidates have spent record amounts on local TV ads during the campaign in just over a dozen of those battleground states we constantly hear about. But look at where they are not buying ads. In California, Texas,, New York, virtually no spending by the presidential candidates on local TV ads this whole election season.

California, Texas, New York, you know, those states with nearly 40 million registered voters and 120 electoral votes combined.

EVAN TRACEY, TNS MEDIA INTELLIGENCE: This is modern politics. The campaigns right now are so sophisticated that they know where their voters are almost down to the zip code. So the fact that these states are not seeing any ads pretty much means that these candidates figure these states are already in one column or another.

TODD: But with the apparent assumption that California and New York go to Kerry and Texas goes to Bush, does the write-off in ad spending send a message to voters in those state that, regardless of party, your vote is irrelevant? We went around and asked voters in all three states if they believed their votes matter, even with the campaign spending almost no money on local TV ads.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, it is completely understandable that they are not going to spend money here. It's pretty much a Democratic state in this election.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right now, I feel like it's going to go to Bush either way, because this is his home state.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I feel, in a way, my vote isn't that important because New York is so Democratic.

TODD: Opinions vary on whether the feeling of irrelevance means fewer people in these states will vote. Analysts say voter turnout is higher in more competitive races.

But even with California, Texas and New York seemingly not competitive in the presidential race and local ad buys virtually nonexistent, everyone we spoke to said they will still head to the polls on November 2.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm I think the last election showed that a single person's vote really does count.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TODD: Now, one important caveat here. TV ads from the presidential candidate are airing on national cable networks in California, Texas, and New York, but one expert tells us that's a sign the candidates are targeting demographics, rather than geographics, Wolf.

BLITZER: All right, Brian Todd, thanks very much for that report.

The former Vice President Al Gore gave what was billed as his final policy speech of the campaign season earlier today over at Georgetown university here in Washington, D.C. He accused the Bush administration of what he called recklessness that risked the safety and security of the American people.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AL GORE, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: How could a team so skilled in politics be so bumbling and incompetent when it comes to policy? The truth is that the same insularity and zeal that makes them effective at smash-mouth politics makes them terrible at governing.

The Bush/Cheney administration is a rarity in American history. It is simultaneously dishonest and incompetent.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Gore's former boss has been absent from the campaign trail since his quadruple heart bypass surgery six weeks ago. His wife, Senator Hillary Clinton, says it's up to his doctors whether he'll be able to make appearances on behalf of John Kerry before the election. She gave an update on his condition earlier today in a radio interview.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), NEW YORK: He's really doing well. He has been a much more patient patient than I would have ever guessed. He has taken seriously all of the advice that the doctors have given him. He goes for long walks around the area here and feels, every day, feeling a little bit better.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

BLITZER: The former president hasn't been completely sidelined. He's been consulting with Kerry and his aides by telephone. And he's expected to record radio and phone messages for the Kerry campaign.

Speedy recovery to the former president.

Orders allegedly refused and an investigation now under way, word that several U.S. soldiers refused to take part on a mission in Iraq. We'll hear from the father of one U.S. Army specialist involved in the incident.

Plus, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, virtually endorses a candidate for the United States presidency. We'll tell you who. That's coming up. And should President Bush consider the views of other countries? Americans weigh in. New poll results just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Several U.S. soldiers in Iraq are now under a military investigation for allegedly refusing to take part in a mission, citing concern about the maintenance of their vehicles and their personal safety. Their orders were to deliver fuel to Taji. That's a dangerous area north of Baghdad.

For more on what is going on, Ricky Shealey joins us by phone from Quinton, Alabama. He's the father of U.S. Army Reserve Specialist Scott Shealey, one of the soldiers now under investigation.

Mr. Shealey, thanks very much for joining us.

What has your son told you about the circumstances of what happened?

RICKY SHEALEY, FATHER OF RESERVIST: Well, my son did go on a mission to deliver that fuel. They went to a place called Camp Duke and the fuel was rejected because it was contaminated. And they stayed at Camp Duke trying to find a place to take the fuel for two days.

And then they ended up by taking the fuel back to their base camp, which is Tallil, Iraq, and that they got back at 10:30 and at 4:00 they woke them up for another mission to take the same contaminated fuel back to a town called Taji.

BLITZER: And they were concerned that the contaminated fuel would, what, if put into a helicopter, would endanger those pilots in the helicopter?

SHEALEY: Contaminated fuel only needs one thing, taken to a disposal place and destroyed. And then the vehicles, these are multi- fuel vehicles. When you get fuel, can you not -- you cannot put diesel fuel back in there until these tanks have been purged.

BLITZER: Mr. Shealey, there's been some suggestion that your son and others, other Reserve soldiers, may be trying to make some sort of political statement against the U.S.-led war in Iraq. Do you have any indication of that? Or was this simply a security matter for them?

SHEALEY: This is -- these soldiers did not want to haul contaminated fuel. These are dedicated soldiers. They have been over there fighting for their country for nine months. This is a command problem. This is not a soldiers' problem. General Chambers needs to admit that his subordinate commanders is human beings and they do make mistakes.

BLITZER: Mr. Shealey, thanks very much for joining us. Good luck to you. Good luck to your son over there. Good luck to all the troops in Iraq -- Ricky Shealey, the father of a U.S. Reservist now under investigation. We invited the U.S. Army to send a representative over to speak with us about this. They pointed out that yesterday there was a full- scale news conference in Baghdad on what is going on. They were going to leave it at that. They insist this is an isolated incident and that the investigation will determine precisely what happened.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's input, the Russian president weighing in on the U.S. election and making his choice known.

First, some other headlines around the world.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): Haiti's ousted president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, is being blamed for a wave of violence that's killed more than 50 people in the past two weeks. Haiti's interim prime minister says Aristide is inciting the violence from his exile in South Africa. Both Aristide and South Africa deny that.

Tower inferno. Hundreds of firefighters backed by helicopters battled a raging fire in a Venezuela skyscraper. Before the blaze was brought under control, officials said they were afraid the building would collapse. Several firefighters were injured.

Church battle. An Anglican Church commission is urging the American Episcopal Church to apologize for consecrating gay bishop Gene Robinson of New Hampshire last year. The report doesn't call for a specific penalty, but it urges the Episcopal Church to refrain from promoting any other clergy members living in same-sex unions.

And that's our look around the world.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, talked about terrorism and the U.S. election today.

Speaking at a Central Asian summit, Mr. Putin said terrorist attacks in Iraq are aimed at preventing the reelection of President Bush and he warned, a Bush defeat -- and I'm quoting now -- "could lead to the spread of terrorism to other parts of the world."

At the same time, Mr. Putin made it clear, Russia remains opposed to the war in Iraq.

Senator Kerry says President Bush should be paying more attention to the views of other countries. What does the American public think?

CNN's Zain Verjee joining us now with the results of an exclusive new CNN/Gallup poll -- Zain.

ZAIN VERJEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, CNN commissioned this exclusive Gallup poll really to look at U.S. foreign policy. And what we really wanted to do is see how Americans view their role in the world. We have a lot of new information from this poll. And we're going to release it tomorrow. But what we want to release today is this. We asked this question to Americans: Should Bush pay more attention to the views of other countries?

This was the result: 65 percent said yes; 27 percent said no -- an interesting result. And that is going to provide the basis of some substantive discussion tomorrow at a town hall special that we're holding at George Washington University.

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: And we're going to be releasing a lot of other poll numbers there as well. We've got a good panel. Zain Verjee will be there with me tomorrow, noon eastern. We'll co-host our special town hall meeting. It's entitled "CNN CONNECTS: THE AMERICAN AGENDA," live from George Washington University. That begins tomorrow noon Eastern, 9:00 a.m. Pacific.

By the way, it will be seen live around the United States and indeed live around the world on CNN International, tomorrow, noon eastern. Zain and I will co-host that town hall meeting.

And we'll have the results of our Web question of the day. That's coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Let's take a look and see how you're weighing in on our Web question of the day.

By the way, this is a live picture of John Kerry's plane that just touched down in Orlando. He should be walking out on to the tarmac momentarily.

Let's take a look at this picture, but let's also go to our Web question of the day: Could the flu vaccine shortage become a health crisis? Forty-nine percent of you say yes; 51 percent of you say no. Remember this is not -- not -- a scientific poll.

A reminder: You can always catch us on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS weekdays, 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Tomorrow, noon Eastern, once again, our special town hall meeting, "THE AMERICAN AGENDA," that will be seen live around the world from George Washington University.

"LOU DOBBS TONIGHT" starts right now.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired October 18, 2004 - 17:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, HOST: Happening now. President Bush is about to touch down here in Florida, his 31st state visit to the Sunshine State since winning the White House four years ago. Not surprisingly Senator Kerry has been spending the day in Florida as well. New polls show this state once again very much up for grabs.
Stand by for hard news on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): Battling in the battleground states.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Senator Kerry has a record, the kind to weaken American intelligence. I'm working every day to strengthen American intelligence.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Despite the president's arrogant boasting that he has done everything right in Iraq and he's made no mistakes, the truth is beginning to catch up with him.

BLITZER: Terror team. Will a pledge of allegiance lead to a new wave of violence in Iraq?

Fifteen days to go but some voters are already voting.

Shot shortage.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm sorry this is becoming a political issue. This is really a health issue.

BLITZER:: Influenza and the election.

ANNOUNCER: This is WOLF BLITZER REPORTS for Monday, October 18, 2004.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: With just over two weeks to election day, President Bush seems to have bounced back from his debates with Democratic candidate John Kerry. Polls now showing Senator Kerry closed the gap during those faceoffs, the original faceoffs turning the race into a dead heat. But now a poll of polls taken during the past few days shows the president has regained the lead. Our average of five major national polls shows the president ahead by some five percentage points. Both campaigns are targeting battleground states which could go either way, among them Florida where the last election was decided. Senator Kerry is there, the president arriving in Florida once again any minute now. Earlier, the president preached to the party faithful in New Jersey. We'll have a full report on that coming up.

We begin, though, with Senator Kerry. Let's go live to our national correspondent Frank Buckley. He is joining us in Tampa -- Frank.

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATL. CORRESPONDENT: Senator Kerry here in Tampa to deliver one of a series of speeches that Kerry aides are calling closing arguments of the campaign as the election season winds down. Election day now just about two weeks away. Senator Kerry also taking this opportunity here to in addition to talking about healthcare, which was the topic of the day, to criticize President Bush on Iraq. The senator picking up on a "Washington Post" article today that the former top commander in Iraq, Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez complained of dire supply shortages to the Pentagon that threatened effective combat operations in the winter of 2003. Senator Kerry using the article to press his argument that President Bush misled Americans on Iraq.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KERRY: Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez argued last winter that without increased supplies and these are his words, "I cannot continue to support sustained combat operations." The day after General Sanchez wrote his letter, George Bush went out and told the American people our troops were properly equipped. Despite the president's arrogant boasting that he has done everything right in Iraq and that he's made no mistakes, the truth is beginning to catch up with him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BUCKLEY: Now Bush campaign officials said this was an instance of Senator Kerry once again grasping at headlines as they put it. They said this was hypocritical coming from Senator Kerry given his vote against $87 billion in post war funding in Iraq. Meanwhile here in Florida, it is the first day of voting in this election as early voting gets underway. Earlier today Senator Kerry was in West Palm Beach where he looked for support from senior citizens, helping them get into a van as they were taken to some of the polls to begin the voting. Senator Kerry saying to them and to other supporters that it was best to vote now, to vote early so that people won't have to stay up too late on November 2 -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Frank Buckley in Florida for us. Thanks, Frank, very much.

Let's get a report now on the president's day. For that we turn to our White House correspondent, Dana Bash.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Fifteen days out, a carefully calculated trip to New Jersey, a state that hasn't voted Republican in three elections. The president laid into John Kerry as weak on a crucial issue here, terrorism.

BUSH: My opponent has a fundamental misunderstanding of the war on terror. A reporter recently asked Senator Kerry how September 11 changed him. He replied, it didn't change me much at all.

BASH: In a blistering speech the president ticked through his opponent's Senate record and campaign statements saying Kerry would hurt Americans by playing defense with terrorists not offense.

BUSH: Senator Kerry's approach would permit a response only after America is hit. This kind of September the 10th attitude is no way to protect our country.

BASH: The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows terrorism tops the issues determining which candidate voters will choose with the economy slightly behind. The president's advantage on terrorism is still larger than on any other issue, 22 points over John Kerry. This speech was about making sure that lead doesn't slip. And Mr. Bush repeatedly tied terrorism to Iraq. He accused Kerry of having a policy of protest and defeatism.

BUSH: He refuses to acknowledge progress or praise the growing democratic spirit in Iraq.

BASH: Kerry aides say the president distorted his record to play the politics of fear. John Edwards in Florida...

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He's exploiting a national tragedy for personal gain and it's the lowest kind of politics.

BASH: Mr. Bush lost New Jersey big last time around and has not really competed for its 15 electoral votes which have looked solid for Kerry. Now some polls have Kerry's lead slipping. Others show a dead heat. The Garden State lost some 700 residents on September 11 and experts say Mr. Bush's leadership on terrorism is responsible for his surprise surge here.

(on camera): The Bush campaign sees this trip as a two-fer. First taunt the Kerry campaign in the hopes they spend some money in a state that should be solidly theirs. But also come to southern New Jersey a Philadelphia media market in hopes of having some play in an area that could determine Pennsylvania which both sides agree is very much a battleground state. Dana bash, CNN, New Jersey.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Call it the stick and the carrot. As U.S. forces hammer insurgent targets, Iraq's interim government is offering insurgents more time to trade their weapons for cash. CNN's Karl Penhaul reports from Baghdad.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The piles of rubble just keep on growing in the rebel held city of Fallujah. This is wreckage from a weekend air strike. Almost daily, U.S. war planes pound what coalition authorities say are suspected hideouts of Iraq and al Qaeda-linked foreign fighters there. Even so Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi still hoping for a political fix to Iraq's guerrilla war so he's announced he's extending the week-old program to buy back insurgent weapons from a single Baghdad neighborhood to the rest of the country.

AYAD ALLAWI, IRAQI INTERIM PRIME MINISTER: We are working to expand this process which that been extended to the coming Thursday to include all of the country because of the success that was achieved in the Sadr City.

PENHAUL: While Allawi views the arms for cash buy back as a model, U.S. army commanders say they are only cautiously optimistic. U.S. forces are especially ken to see insurgents across Iraq turning so-called heavy weapons like these. U.S. troops see these homemade missile and rocket launchers made of plastic and metal tubes after attacks on U.S. bases around Baghdad, they say they are deadly but highly inaccurate.

GEN. JEFF HAMMOND, U.S. ARMY: One third of the time he gets into our camps to terrorize us. There's minor casualties. Two thirds of the time he's probably killing Iraqi citizens.

PENHAUL: Military and political analysts say Iraq's anti- coalition insurgency is getting better coordinated and adapting its fighting techniques. With nationwide elections planned for January Allawi hasn't much time for patience.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is an elephant we're eating and we eat an elephant one bite at a time. We're very encouraged about the prospects for the upcoming election in January. There's a lot of work that has to be done.

PENHAUL: With the extended weapons amnesty Allawi may be playing one of his last political cards. After that analysts expect him to send in Iraqi and coalition forces to wipe out remaining resistance strongholds by force. And if that happens, it will surely mean more rubble in Fallujah. Karl Penhaul, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: The main U.S. target in Iraq nowadays is Abu Musab al- Zarqawi. This weekend, his terror group declared its devotion to Osama bin Laden. Let's turn to our national security correspondent David Ensor -- David.

DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATL. SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, U.S. officials, U.S. intelligence officials are watching this one closely and they say it could be significant.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) (voice-over): U.S. officials are calling credible the claim on Islamist websites that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the terrorist leader in Iraq has sworn allegiance to Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda, a group with which Zarqawi has sometimes competed in the past for resources. The website statement from Zarqawi's Tawhid wal Jihad group says, quote, "we will listen to your orders. If you ask us to join the war we will do it and we will listen to your instructions. If you stop us from doing something, we will abide by your instructions."

STEVEN SIMON, RAND CORP.: If Zarqawi is now perceived to be the protege of the great prince, the real leader of the jihad, the great slayer of Americans, well, it has to inevitably increase Zarqawi's status within Iraq and win him more converts.

ENSOR: U.S. officials say for bin Laden, the move presents him as having someone doing his bidding on the ground in Iraq.

SIMON: You know the old saying a shark needs to keep moving forward in the water or else it dies, well, the same thing with terrorist chieftains.

ENSOR: For Zarqawi, it associates him with the most successful terrorist ever, reflected glory.

ROMAN GUNARATNA, TERRORISM EXPERT: Zarqawi wants to be in Iraq like Osama was in Afghanistan. Zarqawi wants to be the successor to Osama bin Laden. He wants to do operations not only in Iraq but outside Iraq.

ENSOR: U.S. officials confirm that, among other places, Zarqawi traveled to Iran before the war. They say there's no evidence, though, that Iranian officials are helping him, and it better stay that way.

RICHARD BOUCHER, STATE DEPT. SPOKESMAN: Were it to be found that Iran was providing particular support for this terrorist group, obviously that would be a very, very serious matter.

ENSOR (voice-over): The U.S. officials say Zarqawi does have connections with cells in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, and that is why, they say, U.S. forces are trying so hard to bottle him up in Iraq and then to neutralizer him -- Wolf?

BLITZER: David Ensor, thanks very much. Neutralize meaning kill him.

ENSOR: Or take him out in some other way. If they can capture him alive, they'd be happy to do that.

BLITZER: All right, David. Thank you very much.

Democratic Presidential Candidate John Kerry today sharply criticized President Bush for ignoring a report from his top general in Iraq about shortages of key supplies. Our senior Pentagon correspondent Jamie McIntyre is joining us now live with the latest -- Jamie? JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, while the Kerry campaign is using this memo as ammunition against the Bush administration, the Pentagon has a different portrayal. They say the memo shows that when U.S. commanders ask for help, they get it.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(voice-over): Battling an unexpectedly tenacious insurgency, the top commander in Iraq, Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez, found himself last December facing critical shortages of spare parts and body armor. In particular, tanks and other equipment were wearing out faster than they could be repaired.

A lack of parts was cutting into the Army readiness standard of 90 percent. Readiness rates for Abrams tanks dropped to 84 percent. Bradley Fighting Vehicles, 85 percent. And depending on the model, only between 63 and 72 percent of the Army's helicopters were combat ready.

On December 4th, 2003, General Sanchez fired off an urgent memo to Army Vice Chief General George Casey at the Pentagon. "Frankly, we a re struggling just to maintain these relatively low readiness rates," wrote Sanchez. "I cannot continue to support sustained combat operations with rates this low." And he appealed to Casey to cut through any red tape, concluding with, "I cannot sustain readiness without Army-level intervention."

General Casey, who is now the top commander in Iraq, answered nine days later, saying he shared Sanchez's concern. In a December 13th response, Casey outlined actions he said were already underway, to speed the delivery of supplies to Iraq and ensure that every U.S. soldier would have full body armor within six weeks, a goal the Army says was met.

The Pentagon argues the exchange shows that it quickly heeded the request of military commanders to respond to a changing situation on the ground and meet the needs of U.S. troops.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(on camera): While the Kerry campaign says the memo shows that U.S. troops were ill equipped at a time President Bush was saying something different in public, the Pentagon says that this memo -- which was first reported by "The Washington Post" -- shows something quite different. In fact the "Post" says in their story that they got the memo from someone who disagrees with the Bush administration's handling of Iraq, but who insisted the motivation was simply dismay that front line troops were not adequately supplied -- Wolf?

BLITZER: Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon. Jamie, thanks very much.

The president of the United States now on the ground in Florida, his 31st visit to the Sunshine State since becoming president, taking no chances whatsoever. As four years ago, as could be the case this time, Florida could be decisive. One of those key battleground states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Air Force One has just touched down. We're looking at a live picture of the president on the tarmac getting ready to continue with his campaigning. President Bush certainly determined to make sure that Florida remains in his column. He won that state by a mere 537 votes four years ago. We'll continue to watch the president. We're also watching Senator Kerry.

We'll also have more on the situation in Iraq coming up, and the new statement of allegiance to bin Laden by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's terrorist group. I'll speak live with the former U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen.

Plus, flu politics -- both sides say they'll fix the vaccine shortage problem, but do their plans really differ?

Recognizing the ad gap -- why voters in some states may be getting the wrong message.

Mission refused -- allegations of Army Reservists balking at orders to drive their fuel convoy in Iraq. I'll speak live with the father of one of the soldiers involved in this incident.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: With a little more than two weeks before the Election Day, it may not come as much of a surprise that the flu vaccine shortage has now become a very hot political issue. Our medical correspondent Elizabeth Cohen is at the CNN Center in Atlanta. She's following the story -- Elizabeth?

ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, it started out really as just a public health concern, but now the lack of flu shots -- or the shortage of flu shots, I should say, has become a political concern, as well.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(voice-over): Long lines for flu shots one day make for political ads...

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A George Bush mess.

E. COHEN: ... and speeches the next.

The candidates have officially caught the flu. Both sides say they have plans to solve the problems with the system. Right now, flu shots are made by private pharmaceutical companies. They sell the shots to places like doctor's offices, supermarkets, and local health departments. But here's the hitch: Pharmaceutical companies don't make much money off of flu shots, so many have simply gone out of the business.

In years past, some four companies have made flu shots for the U.S., now there are only two. And when one company has contamination problems, as the Chiron Company did this year, nearly half the nation's supply becomes unusable.

The head of the Centers for Disease Control, Dr. Julie Gerberding.

DR. JULIE GERBERDING, CDC: We've got to create a market for these manufacturers. We've got to reimburse them at a fair price. And we have to give them some liability protection.

This process is risky business. And the reason so many manufacturers have dropped out is that they just can't make business sense out of the enterprise.

E. COHEN: Democratic hopeful John Kerry blames President Bush for the shortage.

KERRY: I understand there was some senior citizens who came out to listen to President Bush the other day and he gave them the standard speech about prayer and flu shots. And that's the way it works. Under his plan, you don't have a prayer of getting a flu shot, ladies and gentlemen. I think there's one thing that we can all agree on here that if Halliburton made flu shots, you'd have more flu shots here than there are oranges in the state of Florida.

E. COHEN: And both Kerry and the Bush administration offered plans which surprisingly call for similar actions. Work with manufacturers to get a larger supply of vaccines, establish government stockpiles of vaccines, and increase research for new ways to make vaccines.

In the old way, the way it's done now, flu vaccine is grown inside chicken eggs. It's a tedious process and takes months. New methods could be quicker so manufacturers could more easily respond in case of an emergency, in cases like this year when half the supply suddenly can't be used, and so people who need flu shots are left waiting in line.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

E. COHEN: Some health care experts have another way of looking at this situation. They say to solve the problem, the government should simply take over vaccine production, making flu shots themselves -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Elizabeth Cohen with some important information for us. Thanks, Elizabeth, very much.

To our viewers, here's your chance to weigh in on the story. Our Web "Question of the Day" is this: Could the flu vaccine shortage become a health crisis? You can vote, go to cnn.com/wolf. We'll have the results a little bit later in this broadcast.

Terror connection and a frightening new pledge to Osama bin Laden made by the group responsible for several beheadings and attacks against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq.

Returned to the battlefield and a life of terror. A disturbing update on some former Gauntanamo Bay detainees.

And speaking out ahead of the election, tough words today from Al Gore against his former opponent. We'll have details.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Two top U.S. enemies may be teaming up. How important is that oath of allegiance apparently made by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to Osama bin Laden? Joining us now from New York, our world affairs analyst, the former defense secretary, William Cohen.

Mr. Secretary, thanks for joining us. This potentially sounds at least on the surface as if it could be a pretty big deal.

WILLIAM COHEN, CNN WORLD AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, we have known for some time that Zarqawi has tried to establish links with bin Laden ever since last January. I think that the intelligence community has been trying to follow this and they think that those links were at least under negotiation, discussion.

It could represent two things. Number one, it could show that Zarqawi is under heavy pressure coming from the coalition forces and the interim government now that there's a much greater offensive under way and that he may be taking more losses than he anticipated. And so it might be a call for bin Laden to help him in some way through his organization.

That could be one aspect. The other is simply a consolidation of the terror groups trying to marshal as many forces as they can and send a signal that he is now going to be the No. 2 man in this holy war that they are waging against the West.

BLITZER: Is there -- do you get a sense that the so-called foreign terrorists who are now operating in Iraq, that they are the bulk of the insurgency or is this homegrown Iraqis themselves, Saddam loyalists?

W. COHEN: I think it's still hard to say. Right now it's a combination of all of the above. But clearly the people of Iraq seem to be tiring of the war that is going on. And they are trying to throw out the foreign insurgents as such, the foreign jihadists, and that would be Zarqawi's group. So it may be that he's losing support with the Iraqi insurgents and they are suffering great losses and the people themselves want him out. And so this may be an attempt again to consolidate the various groups under one umbrella, that of bin Laden.

BLITZER: I have had some conversations the past couple of days with high ranking U.S. civilian and military personnel who are deeply involved in the situation in Iraq. And they say, yes, the insurgency, it seems to be getting worse, terrorism on the rise even in the so- called Green Zone, but you know what, they are pretty optimistic that the elections will take place at the end of July (sic).

W. COHEN: A lot depends on how much success we have in cracking down on the insurgent groups. There has been a much more aggressive posture taken. The question remains, will the United States and coalition forces and those of the Iraqi interim government forces go into Falluja before the election or after?

It's going to require a good deal more of warmaking capability and there will be a lot of casualties certainly on the part of the Iraqis involved, and perhaps even on the part of the coalition forces. Whether President Bush is going to take that step before the election or seek to try and do it after the election remains to be seen.

From a military perspective, if there is momentum under way, you certainly want to take advantage of that and not give the insurgents or Zarqawi two weeks or three weeks to regather his forces.

BLITZER: As a former defense secretary, what went through your mind when you heard that a group of U.S. Army reservists, about 18 of them, had refused an order to lead a fuel convoy in the Sunni Triangle because they said it was simply too dangerous, the trucks weren't armored, the fuel was contaminated and they just simply said no, a full scale investigation now under way, what do you make of this?

W. COHEN: Well, it's very distressing. I think that we have all learned in looking back that there were insufficient supplies that were going to our troops. We have had several reports coming out no less from General Sanchez and also from Paul Bremer indicating that they were inadequate numbers and inadequate supplies.

Those may have been corrected. But this may be only one isolated example, that's something that the investigation is going to have to clarify. This represents a breakdown in good order in discipline that individual soldiers cannot make the decision in terms of whether or not they can carry out a mission. Otherwise if that spreads it is certainly going to affect the military capability and it's something that's not desirable.

So they may have a very strong case to say that they were unarmed and incapable of carrying out a mission, but that has to come from the commanders. They have to be accountable. But this can't go unattended to and hopefully we'll find out whether it's an isolated example or whether it's much more widespread, in which case we have a serious problem to contend with.

BLITZER: Secretary Cohen, thanks very much.

W. COHEN: Thank you, Wolf.

BLITZER: Fifteen days and counting, the presidential election takes places in some two weeks. Some voters are casting their ballots early.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, it doesn't feel weird at all. It feels wonderful to know that my vote has been cast.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Will we see a repeat of the election of 2000? Or is America ready for a smooth election this time around?

If you live in a blue state or a red state, chances are you are not being inundated with campaign commercials. We'll tell you why there is an ad gap, at least in some states.

Plus, the patient patient, an update how the former President Bill Clinton is recovering from quadruple bypass surgery. His wife, Senator Clinton, speaks out about that today. We'll tell you what she said.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back.

Beating the crowds, several states allowing voters to cast their ballots beginning today. We'll show you where and why.

First, though, a quick check of some other stories now in the news.

The Pentagon says at least seven former prisoners held at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba have returned to terrorism. At least two are believed to have been killed in fighting in Afghanistan and a third recaptured during a raid of a suspected training camp. Officials say most of the more than 200 other prisoners freed so far have not returned to the battlefield.

Democratic lawmakers in Texas have something to smile about. The Supreme Court today ordered a lower court to reconsider a controversial congressional redistricting plan in Texas. The newly drawn districts could give Republicans six more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Texas Republican lawmakers forced the changes after two walk-outs by the Democrats last year. But the court's ruling does not affect next month's elections.

Keeping you informed, CNN, the most trusted name in news.

Election Day is still more than two weeks away, but balloting has already begun in some states, drawing some very familiar faces to the polls.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): Former first lady Barbara Bush, along with the former President Bush, casting their ballots in Houston today, making no secret how they voted.

GEORGE H.W. BUSH, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Of course it's such an honor and privilege to be voting for him. But we don't want to be campaigning in here. So I better be careful.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What do you think of the campaign?

G.H.W. BUSH: I think it's great. I think we're going to win big. BLITZER: Texas is among four states where early voting starts today. The others are Colorado, Arkansas, and Florida. They join seven other states, all battlegrounds, where the balloting has already begun, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. With interest in the election high and a large number of first-time voters expected, early balloting is one way to avoid long lines on Election Day.

But in Florida, source of so much turmoil in the last presidential election, early voting revealed reform still has a way to go. There were reports of incomplete absentee ballots, as well as computer glitches.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The problem here is that there is a problem with the connection with the mainframe computer.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The first day of early voting. We do have some technical things that need to be worked out. And I think that's just almost the nature of the beast, but we're on top of it and hopefully we're going to get it taken care of in short order.

BLITZER: Overall, early voters said they were pleased with the process. But with memories of the 2000 Florida fiasco still fresh, some remain cautious.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I wanted to get it over with. And it feels good. I got it over with and it's done. And I hope it makes a difference. I hope it's counted.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: This time around, Colorado is a battleground state, even though Denver's "Rocky Mountain News" released a poll today showing President Bush with a five-point lead. John Kerry has not conceded the state, by any means. In fact, he's scheduled to campaign in Colorado on Saturday.

CNN's Anderson Cooper is with the CNN Election Express at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

Give us a little sense, Anderson. What is going on in Colorado?

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, you are right.

As you said, Senator Kerry will be here on Saturday, campaigning with Ken Salazar, the Democratic representative who -- the attorney general who is trying to be the senator here. It's a very tight race in that.

We're going to look at those poll numbers in a second. First I want to show you the national electorate vote, as we can project it at this point. Let's show that map, President Bush, 277 electoral votes if the election was held today, 261 for Senator Kerry. But, again, a state like Colorado, with its nine electoral votes, could make the difference. And the race here considered close, though, as you said, that poll out today shows President Bush in the lead, largely based they think on women voters.

But there are a lot of unknowns at this point. There are a lot of Hispanic voters who are newly registered who it is not clear yet how many of them will actually come out to the polls and which way they will also cast their vote. Let's also show you a new poll out today regarding the Senate race here in Colorado.

The choice for U.S. Senate, Ken Salazar, the attorney general, Pete Coors, Republican. Among registered voters, Salazar 51 percent, 45 percent for Coors. Among likely voters, though, the race much closer, 49 percent to 48 percent.

Also want to show you new poll numbers out, CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup polls, regarding this controversial measure to change the way Colorado allocates electoral votes. Most people, though, believe this will not pass here at this point, for among registered voters, 43, 47 percent against, 53 percent against among likely voters, a very controversial measure that, if it did, in fact pass, could have national implications, Wolf.

BLITZER: Anderson Cooper reporting from Colorado.

And this note, "ANDERSON COOPER 360" tonight 7:00 p.m. Eastern live from Colorado, much more on what is happening there, as well as elsewhere around the nation and around the world, a little bit more than an hour from now, "ANDERSON COOPER 360."

Both presidential campaigns are spending heavily on advertising, but not everyone around the country is seeing those ads.

Our Brian Todd is joining us now live to explain.

What is going on, Brian?

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, only not everyone, Wolf, but quite a few million people are not seeing those ads. It's all about targeting demographic and battleground states and, some argue, taking votes for granted.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TODD (voice-over): To many of us, it seems like a deluge.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm John Kerry and I approve this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm George W. Bush and I approve this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP) JAMES THURBER, AUTHOR, "CROWDED AIRWAVES": We're setting a record for the amount of money that we are spending on ads.

TODD: Do these records mean George W. Bush and John Kerry have been everywhere on the air month after month market after market? It depends on where you live.

CNN's tracking shows the presidential candidates have spent record amounts on local TV ads during the campaign in just over a dozen of those battleground states we constantly hear about. But look at where they are not buying ads. In California, Texas,, New York, virtually no spending by the presidential candidates on local TV ads this whole election season.

California, Texas, New York, you know, those states with nearly 40 million registered voters and 120 electoral votes combined.

EVAN TRACEY, TNS MEDIA INTELLIGENCE: This is modern politics. The campaigns right now are so sophisticated that they know where their voters are almost down to the zip code. So the fact that these states are not seeing any ads pretty much means that these candidates figure these states are already in one column or another.

TODD: But with the apparent assumption that California and New York go to Kerry and Texas goes to Bush, does the write-off in ad spending send a message to voters in those state that, regardless of party, your vote is irrelevant? We went around and asked voters in all three states if they believed their votes matter, even with the campaign spending almost no money on local TV ads.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, it is completely understandable that they are not going to spend money here. It's pretty much a Democratic state in this election.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right now, I feel like it's going to go to Bush either way, because this is his home state.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I feel, in a way, my vote isn't that important because New York is so Democratic.

TODD: Opinions vary on whether the feeling of irrelevance means fewer people in these states will vote. Analysts say voter turnout is higher in more competitive races.

But even with California, Texas and New York seemingly not competitive in the presidential race and local ad buys virtually nonexistent, everyone we spoke to said they will still head to the polls on November 2.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm I think the last election showed that a single person's vote really does count.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TODD: Now, one important caveat here. TV ads from the presidential candidate are airing on national cable networks in California, Texas, and New York, but one expert tells us that's a sign the candidates are targeting demographics, rather than geographics, Wolf.

BLITZER: All right, Brian Todd, thanks very much for that report.

The former Vice President Al Gore gave what was billed as his final policy speech of the campaign season earlier today over at Georgetown university here in Washington, D.C. He accused the Bush administration of what he called recklessness that risked the safety and security of the American people.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AL GORE, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: How could a team so skilled in politics be so bumbling and incompetent when it comes to policy? The truth is that the same insularity and zeal that makes them effective at smash-mouth politics makes them terrible at governing.

The Bush/Cheney administration is a rarity in American history. It is simultaneously dishonest and incompetent.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Gore's former boss has been absent from the campaign trail since his quadruple heart bypass surgery six weeks ago. His wife, Senator Hillary Clinton, says it's up to his doctors whether he'll be able to make appearances on behalf of John Kerry before the election. She gave an update on his condition earlier today in a radio interview.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), NEW YORK: He's really doing well. He has been a much more patient patient than I would have ever guessed. He has taken seriously all of the advice that the doctors have given him. He goes for long walks around the area here and feels, every day, feeling a little bit better.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

BLITZER: The former president hasn't been completely sidelined. He's been consulting with Kerry and his aides by telephone. And he's expected to record radio and phone messages for the Kerry campaign.

Speedy recovery to the former president.

Orders allegedly refused and an investigation now under way, word that several U.S. soldiers refused to take part on a mission in Iraq. We'll hear from the father of one U.S. Army specialist involved in the incident.

Plus, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, virtually endorses a candidate for the United States presidency. We'll tell you who. That's coming up. And should President Bush consider the views of other countries? Americans weigh in. New poll results just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Several U.S. soldiers in Iraq are now under a military investigation for allegedly refusing to take part in a mission, citing concern about the maintenance of their vehicles and their personal safety. Their orders were to deliver fuel to Taji. That's a dangerous area north of Baghdad.

For more on what is going on, Ricky Shealey joins us by phone from Quinton, Alabama. He's the father of U.S. Army Reserve Specialist Scott Shealey, one of the soldiers now under investigation.

Mr. Shealey, thanks very much for joining us.

What has your son told you about the circumstances of what happened?

RICKY SHEALEY, FATHER OF RESERVIST: Well, my son did go on a mission to deliver that fuel. They went to a place called Camp Duke and the fuel was rejected because it was contaminated. And they stayed at Camp Duke trying to find a place to take the fuel for two days.

And then they ended up by taking the fuel back to their base camp, which is Tallil, Iraq, and that they got back at 10:30 and at 4:00 they woke them up for another mission to take the same contaminated fuel back to a town called Taji.

BLITZER: And they were concerned that the contaminated fuel would, what, if put into a helicopter, would endanger those pilots in the helicopter?

SHEALEY: Contaminated fuel only needs one thing, taken to a disposal place and destroyed. And then the vehicles, these are multi- fuel vehicles. When you get fuel, can you not -- you cannot put diesel fuel back in there until these tanks have been purged.

BLITZER: Mr. Shealey, there's been some suggestion that your son and others, other Reserve soldiers, may be trying to make some sort of political statement against the U.S.-led war in Iraq. Do you have any indication of that? Or was this simply a security matter for them?

SHEALEY: This is -- these soldiers did not want to haul contaminated fuel. These are dedicated soldiers. They have been over there fighting for their country for nine months. This is a command problem. This is not a soldiers' problem. General Chambers needs to admit that his subordinate commanders is human beings and they do make mistakes.

BLITZER: Mr. Shealey, thanks very much for joining us. Good luck to you. Good luck to your son over there. Good luck to all the troops in Iraq -- Ricky Shealey, the father of a U.S. Reservist now under investigation. We invited the U.S. Army to send a representative over to speak with us about this. They pointed out that yesterday there was a full- scale news conference in Baghdad on what is going on. They were going to leave it at that. They insist this is an isolated incident and that the investigation will determine precisely what happened.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's input, the Russian president weighing in on the U.S. election and making his choice known.

First, some other headlines around the world.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): Haiti's ousted president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, is being blamed for a wave of violence that's killed more than 50 people in the past two weeks. Haiti's interim prime minister says Aristide is inciting the violence from his exile in South Africa. Both Aristide and South Africa deny that.

Tower inferno. Hundreds of firefighters backed by helicopters battled a raging fire in a Venezuela skyscraper. Before the blaze was brought under control, officials said they were afraid the building would collapse. Several firefighters were injured.

Church battle. An Anglican Church commission is urging the American Episcopal Church to apologize for consecrating gay bishop Gene Robinson of New Hampshire last year. The report doesn't call for a specific penalty, but it urges the Episcopal Church to refrain from promoting any other clergy members living in same-sex unions.

And that's our look around the world.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, talked about terrorism and the U.S. election today.

Speaking at a Central Asian summit, Mr. Putin said terrorist attacks in Iraq are aimed at preventing the reelection of President Bush and he warned, a Bush defeat -- and I'm quoting now -- "could lead to the spread of terrorism to other parts of the world."

At the same time, Mr. Putin made it clear, Russia remains opposed to the war in Iraq.

Senator Kerry says President Bush should be paying more attention to the views of other countries. What does the American public think?

CNN's Zain Verjee joining us now with the results of an exclusive new CNN/Gallup poll -- Zain.

ZAIN VERJEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, CNN commissioned this exclusive Gallup poll really to look at U.S. foreign policy. And what we really wanted to do is see how Americans view their role in the world. We have a lot of new information from this poll. And we're going to release it tomorrow. But what we want to release today is this. We asked this question to Americans: Should Bush pay more attention to the views of other countries?

This was the result: 65 percent said yes; 27 percent said no -- an interesting result. And that is going to provide the basis of some substantive discussion tomorrow at a town hall special that we're holding at George Washington University.

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: And we're going to be releasing a lot of other poll numbers there as well. We've got a good panel. Zain Verjee will be there with me tomorrow, noon eastern. We'll co-host our special town hall meeting. It's entitled "CNN CONNECTS: THE AMERICAN AGENDA," live from George Washington University. That begins tomorrow noon Eastern, 9:00 a.m. Pacific.

By the way, it will be seen live around the United States and indeed live around the world on CNN International, tomorrow, noon eastern. Zain and I will co-host that town hall meeting.

And we'll have the results of our Web question of the day. That's coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Let's take a look and see how you're weighing in on our Web question of the day.

By the way, this is a live picture of John Kerry's plane that just touched down in Orlando. He should be walking out on to the tarmac momentarily.

Let's take a look at this picture, but let's also go to our Web question of the day: Could the flu vaccine shortage become a health crisis? Forty-nine percent of you say yes; 51 percent of you say no. Remember this is not -- not -- a scientific poll.

A reminder: You can always catch us on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS weekdays, 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Tomorrow, noon Eastern, once again, our special town hall meeting, "THE AMERICAN AGENDA," that will be seen live around the world from George Washington University.

"LOU DOBBS TONIGHT" starts right now.

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