Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Wolf Blitzer Reports

Violence Persists in Iraq; Archbishop Kidnapped in Iraq; Pentagon Denies Plans to Invade Iran; New Palestinian Leader Pressures Terrorist Groups; Terrorist Attack at Inaugural Could Create Havoc in Government; Muslim Pilgrims Enact Holy Rituals

Aired January 17, 2005 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


WOLF BLITZER, HOST: Happening now: a desperate demand from the Vatican after Iraqi terrorists kidnap one of their own.
Stand by for hard news on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): Fight for Iraq. An archbishop is abducted. Iraq's insurgents raise the stakes as U.S. troops strike back.

Eyeing Iran?

SEYMOUR HERSH, "THE NEW YORKER": They are serious about expanding the war.

Is the Bush administration already scouting out the next target?

The Hajj, Islam's sacred pilgrimage. Stunning images that relatively few Americans will ever see firsthand.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I couldn't believe I was here.

BLITZER: We'll take you behind the scenes in Mecca.

Four more years. President Bush gets ready to celebrate the start of another term. Can he avoid the pitfalls of his predecessors?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: This is WOLF BLITZER REPORTS for Monday, January 17, 2005.

BLITZER: Thanks for joining us.

We're watching a developing story in Iraq right now, where insurgents may have broken new ground today with the kidnapping of a top Christian cleric, the archbishop of the Syrian Catholic Church in Iraq, Basile Georges Casmoussa.

That act came amid a fresh round of bloody assaults in their effort to sabotage the upcoming election.

CNN's Jeff Koinange reports from Baghdad. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFF KOINANGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Another deadly day on the road to democracy, with Iraqi security forces bearing the brunt of an insurgency determined to derail the landmark January 30 elections.

And outside the troubled northern city of Mosul, where Christians have been subjected to attacks in the past, the Roman Catholic archbishop was kidnapped outside a private residence.

In Beurut (ph), just south of Baqubah in the Sunni Triangle, militants drove up to an Iraqi National Gaurd checkpoint and opened fire with automatic weapons, killing seven guardsmen and one civilian.

In the town of Baiji, 40 kilometers north of Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit, a suicide bomber blew himself up at a police checkpoint, killing seven Iraqi policemen and wounding as many as 19 others.

It's not just security forces being targeted. So are polling centers like this school just outside the southern city of Basra, one of four hit by mortars, causing extensive damage.

Because of the incessant violence, security forces are pressing ahead with election day preparations. At this training center in Basra, Iraqi police go through their drills, loading and firing weapons, checking vehicles, simulating arrests.

The few candidates brave enough to admit they're running for office say the threat of violence is everywhere.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): There's no region in Iraq out of danger. Every day I receive threats. Every place in Iraq is the same.

LT. ANDREW SHAND, BRITISH ARMY: Well, the threat is substantial, which it clearly is. Then obviously, you know, we've got to be on our guard. And we need to get there on the ground, keep showing a presence and try and put the terrorists on the back foot.

KOINANGE: And 25 kilometers outside Nasiriyah in the country's south, Italian troops, who dominate coalition forces here, say they've built up cordial relations with locals which might help minimize election day violence.

All this as Iraqis living outside Iraq, many of them forced into exile during Saddam Hussein's rule, began to register to vote. Close to a million exiles are expected to register from 14 countries, adding to the 14 million eligible to cast their votes at home.

(on camera) The big question is or to what degree this pre- election campaign of violence will keep Iraqis away from the polling places on election day, now less two weeks away.

Jeff Koinange, CNN, Baghdad. (END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: The Vatican is condemning the kidnapping of the archbishop in Mosul, and they're saying it's, quote, "an act of terrorism."

Joining us now from Rome, CNN Vatican analyst John Allen.

John, thanks very much. What is exactly the Vatican's reaction to the kidnapping of the archbishop?

JOHN ALLEN, CNN VATICAN ANALYST: Well, publicly we have a statement from the papal spokesperson, Joaquin Navarro Valls, who has said that "the Holy See condemns in the firmest manner this terrorist act." That's, of course, a carefully chosen phrase. And also has demanded that Archbishop Casmoussa be returned safe and well to his ministry.

Obviously, there is tremendous concern here not simply for the fate of Archbishop Casmoussa but for the Christian community in Iraq. There are about one million Christians out of the 26 million people in Iraq. And they have been under siege in recent months. Ten churches have been destroyed. Another archbishop's, a residence was blown up. And in some corners of Iraq Christian women have been forced to wear the Islamic veil.

And so there is a continuing out-migration of Christians from Iraq. About 40,000 in Syria alone now. The Vatican obviously is very concerned.

BLITZER: Is there a special security that the archbishop may have had or other Christian leaders might have in Iraq right now, based on what you know, John?

ALLEN: No, I was actually speaking to some Christians on the ground in Iraq an hour ago, who were telling me up to this point there have been no special security measures taken.

What has happened with some parishes in Iraq is that the locals have volunteered to -- to keep their eye on the thing, to try to make sure that the churches are not -- not once again attacked. But the clergy up to this point have had no special security protection. Obviously, that may be reviewed in the wake of today's developments.

BLITZER: The irony, of course, John, is that under Saddam Hussein's regime, the Christian community, as you say, nearly a million Christians in Iraq, had relatively free opportunities to practice their religion, including Tariq Aziz, the former deputy prime minister, who himself was a Christian.

Give us a little background to the Christian community of Iraq.

ALLEN: Well, you're absolutely right. I mean, the -- prior to the overthrow of the Hussein regime, what most Christians would tell you is that certainly Hussein was a brutal dictator, but one of the by-products of that brutality is that it left religious minorities relatively unmolested.

And so Iraq was often thought as a kind of -- an oasis, if you like, for the Christian minority in the Islamic world. And obviously, all of that has now changed.

What most Iraqi Christians will say is they continue to have tremendously good relations with their Muslim neighbors but that the -- the Islamic fundamentalist movements and those that are kind of fomenting the -- most of the violence in these days have a very tough time distinguishing between Christians and the west.

And what has further complicated that is that in the -- since the arrival of the American forces and the coalition forces in Iraq, they have been followed by a fairly large number of Christian missionaries, often Americans, often Protestant evangelicals and Pentecostals. And the presence of those American Christian missionaries has -- has created an atmosphere in which the fundamentalists, the Islamic fundamentalists have an increasingly hard time distinguishing between the Christian presence and the American presence.

BLITZER: John Allen, our CNN Vatican analyst. Thanks, John, very much.

Is the Bush administration eyeing new targets? Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh reports the United States is already carrying out what he calls reconnaissance missions in Iran to identify nuclear and missile sites for possible air strikes.

While tensions are high over Iran's nuclear program, the administration is hotly disputing that claim.

Let's go live to our Pentagon correspondent, Barbara Starr -- Barbara.

BARBARA STARR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, Pentagon officials today are making every effort to signal no attack against Iran is in the works.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

STARR (voice-over): One thing is certain, the U.S. is watching Iran's nuclear program closely. Sources say satellite and aircraft surveillance has been stepped up in recent months.

But is there war planning for an attack against Iran's nuclear sites this summer, as suggested by Seymour Hersh in a "New Yorker" article?

Without responding to the question of a summertime attack, Pentagon officials say Hersh is wrong. Pentagon spokesman Lawrence DiRita said in a statement, quote, "Mr. Hersh's article is so riddled with errors of fundamental fact that the credibility of his entire piece is destroyed."

Hersh believes administration hard-liners do want to attack Iran. HERSH: This is a president that's going to do what he wants to do. And the only thing we can hope is that these guys are right about the world waiting for America to come and remake the Middle East and that Iran will go smoother than Iraq, because they're going to do it. I'm almost -- I'm pretty much convinced of it myself, and so are my sources.

STARR: Hersh says it is part of a broader Pentagon plan to secretly use Special Forces around the world on missions that might have been done by the CIA.

The Pentagon won't say much about Special Forces on the record. Commandos do conduct capture or kill missions in Iraq and Afghanistan and have waged attacks against al Qaeda, but Rumsfeld has indicated he doesn't want to take over CIA efforts.

Hersh insists the U.S. Central Command is updating the war plans, providing for a maximum ground and air invasion of Iran. A senior U.S. military official calls that "absolutely false" and emphasizes contingency plans are updated routinely.

WILLIAM COHEN, FORMER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: It's one thing to have contingency plans, another to actually be contemplating taking military action under the circumstances when, in fact, Iran's a very different country than Iraq.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

STARR: Wolf, one problem now, Pentagon officials know that the Iranians are listening to all of this. They want to make sure the Iranians don't miscalculate and suddenly everyone find themselves in yet another war -- Wolf.

BLITZER: all right. Barbara Starr at the Pentagon. Thanks, Barbara, very much.

To our viewers, here's your chance to weigh in on this story. Our Web question of the day is this: Would you support the U.S. conducting secret reconnaissance missions in Iran? You can vote right now. Go to CNN.com/Wolf. We'll have the results later in this broadcast.

Elsewhere in the Middle East there are signs today that the new Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is feeling the pressure as he answers calls from Israel and the United States to crack down on militant groups.

CNN's Ben Wedeman reports from Gaza.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Patience running out. The people of Sderot demand action from their government. This Israeli town near Gaza comes under regular rocket fire from Palestinian militants. The homemade rockets are crude, but deadly. They've killed four Israelis. "Conquer Gaza now," says this sign in Hebrew.

NOAM PERETZ, SDEROT RESIDENT: We want the government to take all the measures that we will be safe here. It includes all the measure and all the ability of our Israeli force to make it most safe here in Sderot. We live here and we don't want to live in the threat of the -- of the missiles.

WEDEMAN: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is feeling the heat. Sunday evening, he spoke by phone with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, who urged him to rein in the militants. Hours later, Abbas ordered his security forces to stop all attacks.

But Gaza's militants are strong, and Palestinian security forces have been known to turn a blind eye to their activities and in some cases play an active role in them.

The militants, aware the new leader is in the corner.

"We believe Mahmoud Abbas is caught between the hammer and the anvil," says this spokesman for the Aqsa Martyrs Brigade. "Between Israel and the Americans, who are putting him in a very difficult position."

In Hanoumas (ph), a 59-year-old woman and her 28-year-old son were killed in their home late Sunday by Israeli fire. Emotions are high on both sides. More than 20 Palestinians, civilians as well as militants, have been killed in violence since Abbas won the election.

(on camera) Mahmoud Abbas is set to come here shortly to press his demand for a cease-fire. If the militants obey, he could revive peace talks with Israel. If he fails, Israeli officials warn a major military offensive in Gaza could be just weeks away.

Ben Wedeman, CNN, Gaza.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Unprecedented security for the first inauguration since 9/11. What would happen to the U.S. government if the unthinkable did happen?

And presidential pitfalls. The obstacles that have plagued some second terms. The former White House special counsel, Lanny Davis, joins us live on that.

Plus this...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She's kind of come out of the closet, so to speak, out of the fashion closet, that is.

(END VIDEO CLIP) BLITZER: The first lady and fashion, the famous designs that Laura Bush and her daughters will be wearing this week. We're standing by for that.

Also ahead, something you will see only here on CNN. The pilgrimage to Mecca. Muslims worldwide observe the annual Hajj. Our Zain Verjee is live in Saudi Arabia. She'll join us. That's coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: On the "CNN Security Watch," Washington is getting ready for the first presidential inauguration of the post-9/11 era. Thursday's ceremonies here in Washington will be conducted under what's being described as unprecedented security.

Earlier today I talked it over with Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Let me read to you from an article you wrote in "The New Republic." You wrote this.

"The inaugural address is one of the most significant speeches a president makes. The whole spectacle is a celebration of our democracy. It is also the single most vulnerable moment for our constitutional system, far more dangerous than either the conventions, the political conventions, or the general election."

Explain to our viewers what you mean.

NORMAN ORNSTEIN, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: What viewers will see on inauguration day around noon on the west front of the Capitol is the incoming president and vice president, usually the outgoing president and vice president. In this case, just the two of them. All of the Supreme Court, the new cabinet as they're there, the members of the old cabinet, along with all the congressional leaders, most of the members of Congress.

If something happened, a suitcase nuclear bomb or something else, we could wipe out all three blanches and virtually everybody in the line of succession and leave a fog over the country in terms of who is in charge for a very long period of time.

There are ways of dealing with this. We haven't dealt with them.

BLITZER: All right. So let's talk about that. It's a nightmare scenario, a doomsday scenario. As you say, even a small suitcase with a radiological bomb could cause that -- God forbid -- that kind of situation. What would happen?

ORNSTEIN: Well, we would probably end up with large numbers of people who managed to survive popping up and saying, "No problem, I'm in charge here. The old Al Haig scenario, as it were. The problem we've got is we have a Presidential Succession Act written in 1947 that any civics student is familiar with, but it includes only people in Washington.

The outgoing cabinet resigns by custom at noon on January the 20th. So there's nobody there. It's not clear.

Now, we also know in the line of succession, the speaker of the house, the president pro tempore of the Senate. They're gone. If you don't have a Congress with a quorum of half its members to meet, you may not be able to select a new speaker. You may not know for a long time if you have any members of Congress left. Perhaps even a handful could get together then and say that they represent the Congress. Maybe three of them could choose a speaker who becomes the president for four years. Not appropriate.

BLITZER: This sounds like a Tom Clancy novel. But you're really concerned about this?

ORNSTEIN: It used to be Tom Clancy novels. Now these are real tangible problems. We know that suitcase nuclear bombs exist. We know that there are countries and rogue elements, terrorists, evil people out there to try and get them.

Part of the reason we're having this extraordinary security, something 100 times greater than we've seen before here at the inaugural is the fear that something could happen.

And it's only prudent for us, because it's no longer just the stuff of novels, to make sure we've got backup plans in place. But for reasons of inertia, the reason that people don't write wills, our political leaders have not acted.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Norm Ornstein speaking with me earlier today on that, God forbid, doomsday scenario. And please stay tuned to CNN day and night for the most reliable news about your security.

Gathering for the Hajj. Thousands, hundreds of thousands in fact, of Muslims, making the annual pilgrimage.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That was great. I was just looking at the building. I couldn't believe I was here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Our Zain Verjee is also there. She's joining us live from Mecca. That's coming up. This is a story you'll see only on CNN.

Subway accident. Two trains collide during morning rush hour and injuring dozens of people. And presidential problems. The scandals that have plagued some second term presidents. Our Brian Todd standing by to look back at the various pitfalls.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Hundreds of thousands of Muslims from around the world are making their way to the holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia in the annual pilgrimage called the Hajj.

CNN's Zain Verjee is among only a few journalists from western news organizations reporting live from Mecca. She's joining us now to explain what the Hajj is all about, why it's so important -- Zain.

ZAIN VERJEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, it's the largest gathering of humanity in one place at one time.

Pilgrims that we've spoken to here are in awe. It's emotional for them. And they're excited. Here's why the Hajj is so important to Muslims.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

VERJEE (voice-over): It's the holiest city on earth for Muslims, Mecca. Nestled between hills in the Arabian Desert. The young California based Iman Kahir Amwar (ph) has been here often.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's the most beautiful feeling in the world.

VERJEE: Two billion people descend on the heart of the Muslim world for the pilgrimage known as the Hajj. The Hajj is one of the five pillars of Islam. Performing it is mandatory for Muslims at least once, if health and wealth permit.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That building in the middle covered in a black colored cloth...

VERJEE: Muslims around the world pray toward this, the Kabah, five times a day. Imam Kahir (ph) describes his emotion when he first saw it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I was dazed. I was just looking at the building. I couldn't believe I was here.

VERJEE: Islamic scholars say that prophet Abraham built the Kabah as the first house of God. In a ritual called tawaf, pilgrims circle the Kabah seven times to symbolize that God is at the center of their lives.

Then a run between two hills that recalls a search for water by Abraham's wife.

But first, the transformation known as Irham. Imam Kahir (ph) takes us to the outskirts of Mecca.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The actual limits begins here, ends here. So you must be in the state of Irham before you actually walk over to that side.

VERJEE: Men wear two white unstitched sheets that symbolize purity and equality. Women wear modest clothes and cover their heads.

After the pilgrims state their intention to perform Hajj, there's a set of rules like no quarreling, no perfume, no haircuts, no sex. On a designated day, pilgrims leave Mecca for tented encampment amid the desert dunes.

Imam Kahir (ph) maps out their journey of faith.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They spend their first initial day in the tent city on Minah (ph).

VERJEE: When the sun rises, the pilgrims head to the plain of Arafat.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is the most important day of Hajj. They spend this day in prayer.

VERJEE: Then a stop at Mousdalafa (ph) to pick up stones. Then back to Minah (ph) where pilgrims hurl the stones at three pillars in a symbolic rejection of the devil's temptation.

Exhausted but exhilarated, the pilgrims return for a feast called Eid and recount their unique desert experience.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You forget that you're a CEO of a company. You forget that you have a few hundred e-mails to check. You forget that you have a cell phone that's ringing.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VERJEE: The first day of Hajj begins tomorrow, Wolf. There's a real atmosphere of anticipation as pilgrims begin their spiritual journey of a lifetime.

BLITZER: Zain, I understand you actually made it down there in the midst of all those religious symbols. What was it like?

VERJEE: Wolf, we went there last night. And it was really emotionally charged. There was a lot of chanting, different people chanting different prayers.

And as we weaved in and out of the crowded area around the Kabah, we saw groups of people holding on tightly to each other, hoping that they wouldn't get separated. We saw men forming a ring around their group of women to keep them safe and to make sure that they don't get separated. We saw one old blind woman alone, tapping a stick and going around the Kabah.

A lot of people try to touch the Kabah. You see it there behind me. And it's very difficult to do that, simply because of the crowds. We saw one man who managed to reach the Kaban, and he was rubbing a blue velvet cloth on it. One of the things that happens when you're down there is that people raise their hands like this in acknowledgment of a black stone that has a historical significance. The black stone is lying directly with the one single minaret you see behind me. So people know exactly where to locate it. They do it and raise their hand, as I said, in acknowledgment. And sometimes they raise two hands, just their hands, because they're not able to reach it, the Kabah, that is.

It took us 12 to 15 minutes in total to circle the Kabah once. And today it's more crowded and will take a lot longer -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Let's hope it all remains very peaceful over the next several days. Zain Verjee is on the scene for us. She'll be reporting daily on this program.

Zain, thank you very much. An excellent report.

Now, let's take a quick look at some other news making headlines around the world.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

At least 160 people were hurt in a collision on Bangkok's six- month-old subway. An empty train slammed into a full one during rush hour this morning. Officials blame human error and say the system will be shut down for a week.

Raging wildfires. Crews are battling multiple blazes threatening communities outside Perth, Australia. Shifting winds and temperatures topping 100 degrees are making the job difficult.

Death in disgrace. China's state news agency reports former communist party leader Zhao Ziyang has died at age 85. He led the country in political and economic reform but was ousted and put under house arrest in 1989 when he publicly sympathized with Tiananmen Square protesters.

Claiming a record. Doctors in Romania say a 66-year-old woman there has become the oldest ever to give birth. The three-pound baby, conceived in vitro with donor sperm and egg, was delivered by cesarean. But a twin died in the womb.

And that's our look around the world.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: George W. Bush is getting ready to celebrate the start of another presidential term. But can he avoid the pitfalls so many other two-term presidents seem to fall into? The former White House special counsel Lanny Davis joins me live to discuss second-term scandals, a subject he knows quite well.

Plus, this:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think comparing Laura Bush now to four years ago is like an extreme makeover.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: The first family's fashion. What will Laura Bush and her daughters be wearing on Inauguration Day? Our Mary Snow joins us with a sneak peek. That's coming up.

And he plays the president on TV, but he has several roles in a play about human rights. We'll have a conversation with the actor Martin Sheen.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back.

Second-term pitfalls, the political obstacles that some former presidents have encountered, we'll get to that.

First, a quick check of some other stories now in the news.

The Vatican is calling the kidnapping of a Catholic archbishop in Iraq a terrorist act. The archbishop was taken captive today in Mosul, an area that is home to thousands of Christians. Iraq is heavily Muslim. Christians make up about 3 percent of the country.

New Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has made a possibly groundbreaking move. He's ordered Palestinian security forces to stop militant attacks on Israelis. Abbas also launched an investigation into a Palestinian attack last week that killed six Israelis. Israel cautiously welcomed the announcement.

Here in the United States, near Park City, Utah, the search for avalanche victims goes on. But it's expected to be the last day of large-scale searching. Yesterday, searchers found the body of one of the five skiers believed to be buried beneath tons of snow.

President Bush has set an ambitious second-term agenda. But if history is any guide, he could face some significant bumps in the road to establishing the legacy he desires.

CNN's Brian Todd is over at Lafayette Park across the street from the White House. He picks up the story -- Brian.

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, if you look at all the second-term presidents, at least in the postwar era, the record does offer some striking historical insights and possible warnings for the next four years.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TODD (voice-over): Supremely confident, steadfast in his agenda, seasoned from an eventful first term, this is a president whose roughest days may still lie ahead.

JEFF LICHTMAN, DEFENSE ATTORNEY: Second-term presidencies have been remarkably difficult in the postwar era. TODD: From Truman's war fatigue to Clinton's impeachment, from the personal to the political, second-term presidencies consistently have been tormented by scandal or war. All different in nuance, they have, nonetheless, shown us historical patterns that are worth watching for in the next four years. An unpopular, drawn-out war, historians say, is a characteristic danger.

PROF. STEPHEN J. WAYNE, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: If the war persists and there is no remedy, then the president who is in power gets blamed for the fact that he got us into this and he can't seem to get us out of it.

TODD: That was an albatross that led Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman to scrap prospective second runs for the presidency, even though both were eligible. In scandal, as in war, the commander in chief bears the ultimate responsibility. But often, the worst abuses, especially in second terms, are committed by overzealous aides.

The Iran-Contra scandal to a great extent was driven by Ronald Reagan's national security team. How much the president knew is still an open question.

RONALD REAGAN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We did not, repeat, did not, trade weapons or anything else for hostages.

RICHARD NIXON, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: At noon tomorrow.

TODD: More than a decade earlier, loyal advisers had taken a president's darkest ideas to literal extremes.

LICHTMAN: A lot of Richard Nixon's very dangerous and undemocratic tendencies were reinforced by the sounding board of his top aide, including people that went to jail, like his attorney general, John Mitchell, his top domestic aides, Erlichman and Haldeman.

TODD: One historian sees a potential problem with the current president's aides.

WAYNE: He doesn't surround himself with a lot of advisers who believe different things. They're all essentially on the same wavelength.

TODD: Scandal or war, political or personal, second-term crises do seem to have one character flaw in common, the arrogance of power.

LICHTMAN: Maybe second-term presidents had been on the mountaintop too long, are breathing rarefied air and think they can do anything.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TODD: But if we're drawing these parallels, bear in mind one other. As Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton showed us, presidents can ride out their crises and leave office on a wave of popularity -- Wolf. BLITZER: Brian Todd reporting from Lafayette Park -- thank you, Brian, very much.

Lanny Davis knows a great deal about second-term turmoil. He was White House special counsel to President Clinton during part of that second-term. He's joining us here in Washington.

Now, Lanny, thanks very much.

What kind of advice would you have for this president, President Bush, a man you know personally since your days at Yale?

LANNY DAVIS, FORMER WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL: I know him. And I know him fondly as a human being. And what I think is his strength is his compassion and his concern for people.

And the real question is, in his second term, does he run for history and reach out to the center, where there really is a vacuum, or does he keep appealing to his right wing politically? And he's got to decide, is history more important to him than keeping the Republican base happy?

BLITZER: So what lessons from Clinton's mistakes in the second- term that resulted in his impeachment, if not conviction -- he was impeached -- would you recommend that this president avoid?

DAVIS: Well, certainly reach out to the other side and move to the center. President Clinton had a Republican Congress that was investigating him not just in the Monica Lewinsky episode, but back to Whitewater and all the other investigations.

President Bush has the advantage of both houses of Congress. He now can use that as a base to reach out to the Democrats and actually solve problems in a bipartisan fashion. That would mean he runs for history, rather than just rebuild or strengthen the Republican right wing, which is what I think he should avoid.

BLITZER: And if you look back to the second term of Ronald Reagan's presidency, he had a huge problem with Iran-Contra. You lived through that era. You saw the pitfalls, how that developed. This president has to remember that as well and avoiding foreign entanglements that could go awry.

DAVIS: Well, the war is a very crucial issue for President Bush. He put us in there for reasons he believed were necessary.

But he's not been willing to acknowledge the difficulties and level with the American people about the problems of exit. That will be the ultimate test for his presidency. But, again, he can build goodwill if he reaches out to the Democrats. And there are lots of centrist Democrats, like Joe Lieberman, like Evan Bayh, who are waiting to work with the president to solve the country's problems.

And I think the recent statement that he made about not going after a constitutional amendment on traditional marriage definitions is a good sign that he's willing to challenge his right wing and move to the center.

BLITZER: In that interview he gave to "The Washington Post" yesterday, he said, realistically, it was unrealistic to seek a constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage in the United States. So it's unlikely he's going to push for it right now, although he says he would still support it.

Are there other things he should avoid, knowing the experience of other second-term presidents that you've studied?

DAVIS: Well, I think that he has a possible hubris issue, in that he sees himself winning by a majority vote and by a record number of votes. So he's got to avoid arrogance. That's one issue that can set in.

But my memory of the Clinton White House and certainly of President Bush I and other presidencies is, it is really up to the individual to decide how he wants to be regarded in history.

BLITZER: Well, what about this notion that he's surrounding himself in the second term only with like-minded individuals, people who basically agree with him on almost everything? He doesn't have the naysayers, if you will, that might caution him and do him a favor in the long run.

DAVIS: Well, I'm not sure that's a judgment I would make.

He has a right to put staff around him who have gotten him where he is. Karl Rove is a very brilliant practitioner. And I don't blame President Bush for wanting to keep Karl Rove around. But I do think that, in reaching out to the center and to the Democratic Party, he has an historic opportunity. Remember, as governor of Texas, he governed in the center. He ran as a compassionate conservative.

And he needs to think about how history is going to judge him. If he moves to the center, he could end up with a successful second term.

BLITZER: Lanny Davis went to Yale with both President Clinton and President Bush. That's a pretty unique phenomenon. He was your fraternity brother, President Bush.

DAVIS: President Bush and I partied together and we were good friends.

BLITZER: Off camera, we'll talk about it.

(LAUGHTER)

BLITZER: Lanny Davis, thanks very much.

Thursday's inauguration isn't just about politics. It's also about fashion.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) JAMES MISCHKA, DESIGNER: I think the dresses are very appropriate for them. They're young, sophisticated. But I think they look fantastic in them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: But can Jenna Bush avoid having another, shall we say, wardrobe malfunction, like she did in 2000? Coming up, a preview of what the president's daughters will be wearing when their dad takes the oath of office.

Plus, Martin Luther King Jr., honors for an icon four decades after he accepted the Nobel Peace Prize. I'll speak with actor and activist Martin Sheen.

And in our weekend snapshot, an update on the condition of these beached whales. We'll tell you what's going on.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: This week's inauguration just parties and politics. For some, fashion comes first, especially when it comes to what the women of the first family will be wearing.

CNN's Mary Snow is in New York. She's picking up this part of the story -- Mary.

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Wolf.

While so much focus is on Pennsylvania Avenue, there's a lot of buzz here in Manhattan's Seventh Avenue, the heart of the fashion district, this as designers put the final touches on fashion for the women of the White House.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SNOW (voice-over): Behind the pomp and circumstance of the inauguration is the couture. In 2000, first lady Laura Bush wore red. This time, she's going for a subtle and sophisticated look with Oscar de la Renta, who created designs for Hillary Clinton.

PHILLIP BLOCH, CELEBRITY STYLIST: I think comparing Laura Bush now to four years ago is like an extreme makeover, basically. It is like the swan. She's kind of come out of the closet, so to speak, out of the fashion closet, that is.

SNOW: By day, the first lady will wear winter white, and by night, a silvery blue gown. She'll share the limelight with her daughters, who have chosen a first-time fashionista team for the White House.

MARK BADGLEY, DESIGNER: Well, caller I.D. comes up, the White House. And we're like, oh, I think we should take this call.

SNOW: Mark Badgley and James Mischka have dressed the likes of Halle Berry and Beyonce, before dressing the Bush twins. BADGLEY: It is actually very much like doing a gown for the Academy Awards. You're working with a girl. You're collaborating with her. She has some ideas. You have some ideas. That's how we usually work. And it's very, very much the same thing, except you're dealing with Secret Service, instead of stylists.

SNOW: And the style of the women of the White House is something that seems to intrigue us.

LISA GRADDY, SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTE: According to visitor surveys, it is the most popular exhibit at the Natural Museum of American History.

SNOW: Jacqueline Kennedy's gown is a big draw, along with Nancy Reagan's, whose designs stand beside Barbara Bush and Rosalynn Carter.

GRADDY: We guess about public figures through their clothing sometimes. What does that dress say about that person? Does it say that she has a Bohemian style? Does it say that she's modest?

SNOW: Not so modest will be the gowns for the Bush twins. But the designers promise no wardrobe malfunctions, like Jenna's falling strap in 2000.

MISCHKA: You have to walk a fine line. We didn't want to overdo it. I think the dresses are very appropriate for them. They're young, sophisticated. But I think they look fantastic in them. And they're discrete enough. And, you know, it's just trying to strike that balance that was really our aim on this project.

SNOW: And, as for the fashion for the star of the show, President Bush will be wearing the Washington uniform.

BLOCH: It is what it is. It's going to be a dark suit. There is going to be a red tie, I'm sure.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SNOW: And the women certainly getting more attention in the fashion light. Also, the designers for Jenna and Barbara Bush say they're 100 percent guaranteed no wardrobe malfunctions this time around -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Mary Snow in New York -- thanks, Mary, very much.

Remembering Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. The actor Martin Sheen is involved in honoring the civil rights leader today. On this special day, my interview with him coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It's the story of generations not having received the promises, but having seen them afar off. And it's the story of Americans like Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., who held our nation to those promises and would not rest until they were written into law.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: The president honoring Dr. Martin Luther King only within the past hour here in Washington.

Over the weekend, King holiday observances included a special theatrical performance in King's hometown of Atlanta. Among those participating, the actor Martin Sheen. I spoke with him earlier.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MARTIN SHEEN, ACTOR: To a certain extent, it has. But, remember, Reverend King was an international figure. He spoke to human rights of the world. And, in large measure, he was equally celebrated in the Third World, as he was in Third World America primarily.

So, although, you know, you have to honestly admit that, no, the dream has not been realized, and particularly among the poor of our own country, but it's still alive. It's very much alive in the hearts of those that remember him and the new ones that are discovering and hearing the echo of that dream from so long ago.

BLITZER: How disappointed are you right now looking back on John Kerry's defeat? Would that have made a significant difference on the issue of race in America if John Kerry had defeated President Bush?

SHEEN: It could very well have. You know, I couldn't say for certain.

I don't really think that racism is going to be solved on the political level. I think that it's the nongovernment organizations. The NGOs are really in the forefront, the grassroots organizations that live and work among the people in the neighborhoods.

Remember, that, you know, Reverend King was never elected to public office. He was a moral crusader. He was a populist from the people. And he ascended because of his own belief and his own personal commitment to nonviolence and an end to racism. So he was, you know, a great inspiration to many of the people in the NGOs around the world.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Martin Sheen speaking with me earlier on this day.

Now a look at some stories you may have missed this past weekend.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): The man accused of being the ringleader in the Abu Ghraib prison scandal is serving a 10-year sentence after his conviction Saturday at Fort Hood, Texas. Charles Graner, who was an Army Reserve specialist, was also demoted to private and will receive a dishonorable discharge after he's released. He's first the first soldier to face trial among the seven military guards charged with abusing detainees at the Baghdad prison.

Former Pro Bowl Center Barret Robbins is in a Miami hospital after he was shot by a police officer Saturday night. Police say Robbins was shot while struggling with an officer investigating a burglary. It's not clear whether charges have been filed.

Experts are trying to determine why 30 whales beached themselves along North Carolina's Outer Banks. Some whales managed to free themselves. Others died or had to be put to sleep.

The Golden Globes have been handed out. And best picture awards went to "The Aviator" and "Sideways." The top TV shows, "Desperate Housewives" and "Nip/Tuck."

And that's our weekend snapshot.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Here's our Web question of the day.

"LOU DOBBS TONIGHT" starts right now.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired January 17, 2005 - 17:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, HOST: Happening now: a desperate demand from the Vatican after Iraqi terrorists kidnap one of their own.
Stand by for hard news on WOLF BLITZER REPORTS.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): Fight for Iraq. An archbishop is abducted. Iraq's insurgents raise the stakes as U.S. troops strike back.

Eyeing Iran?

SEYMOUR HERSH, "THE NEW YORKER": They are serious about expanding the war.

Is the Bush administration already scouting out the next target?

The Hajj, Islam's sacred pilgrimage. Stunning images that relatively few Americans will ever see firsthand.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I couldn't believe I was here.

BLITZER: We'll take you behind the scenes in Mecca.

Four more years. President Bush gets ready to celebrate the start of another term. Can he avoid the pitfalls of his predecessors?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: This is WOLF BLITZER REPORTS for Monday, January 17, 2005.

BLITZER: Thanks for joining us.

We're watching a developing story in Iraq right now, where insurgents may have broken new ground today with the kidnapping of a top Christian cleric, the archbishop of the Syrian Catholic Church in Iraq, Basile Georges Casmoussa.

That act came amid a fresh round of bloody assaults in their effort to sabotage the upcoming election.

CNN's Jeff Koinange reports from Baghdad. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFF KOINANGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Another deadly day on the road to democracy, with Iraqi security forces bearing the brunt of an insurgency determined to derail the landmark January 30 elections.

And outside the troubled northern city of Mosul, where Christians have been subjected to attacks in the past, the Roman Catholic archbishop was kidnapped outside a private residence.

In Beurut (ph), just south of Baqubah in the Sunni Triangle, militants drove up to an Iraqi National Gaurd checkpoint and opened fire with automatic weapons, killing seven guardsmen and one civilian.

In the town of Baiji, 40 kilometers north of Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit, a suicide bomber blew himself up at a police checkpoint, killing seven Iraqi policemen and wounding as many as 19 others.

It's not just security forces being targeted. So are polling centers like this school just outside the southern city of Basra, one of four hit by mortars, causing extensive damage.

Because of the incessant violence, security forces are pressing ahead with election day preparations. At this training center in Basra, Iraqi police go through their drills, loading and firing weapons, checking vehicles, simulating arrests.

The few candidates brave enough to admit they're running for office say the threat of violence is everywhere.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): There's no region in Iraq out of danger. Every day I receive threats. Every place in Iraq is the same.

LT. ANDREW SHAND, BRITISH ARMY: Well, the threat is substantial, which it clearly is. Then obviously, you know, we've got to be on our guard. And we need to get there on the ground, keep showing a presence and try and put the terrorists on the back foot.

KOINANGE: And 25 kilometers outside Nasiriyah in the country's south, Italian troops, who dominate coalition forces here, say they've built up cordial relations with locals which might help minimize election day violence.

All this as Iraqis living outside Iraq, many of them forced into exile during Saddam Hussein's rule, began to register to vote. Close to a million exiles are expected to register from 14 countries, adding to the 14 million eligible to cast their votes at home.

(on camera) The big question is or to what degree this pre- election campaign of violence will keep Iraqis away from the polling places on election day, now less two weeks away.

Jeff Koinange, CNN, Baghdad. (END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: The Vatican is condemning the kidnapping of the archbishop in Mosul, and they're saying it's, quote, "an act of terrorism."

Joining us now from Rome, CNN Vatican analyst John Allen.

John, thanks very much. What is exactly the Vatican's reaction to the kidnapping of the archbishop?

JOHN ALLEN, CNN VATICAN ANALYST: Well, publicly we have a statement from the papal spokesperson, Joaquin Navarro Valls, who has said that "the Holy See condemns in the firmest manner this terrorist act." That's, of course, a carefully chosen phrase. And also has demanded that Archbishop Casmoussa be returned safe and well to his ministry.

Obviously, there is tremendous concern here not simply for the fate of Archbishop Casmoussa but for the Christian community in Iraq. There are about one million Christians out of the 26 million people in Iraq. And they have been under siege in recent months. Ten churches have been destroyed. Another archbishop's, a residence was blown up. And in some corners of Iraq Christian women have been forced to wear the Islamic veil.

And so there is a continuing out-migration of Christians from Iraq. About 40,000 in Syria alone now. The Vatican obviously is very concerned.

BLITZER: Is there a special security that the archbishop may have had or other Christian leaders might have in Iraq right now, based on what you know, John?

ALLEN: No, I was actually speaking to some Christians on the ground in Iraq an hour ago, who were telling me up to this point there have been no special security measures taken.

What has happened with some parishes in Iraq is that the locals have volunteered to -- to keep their eye on the thing, to try to make sure that the churches are not -- not once again attacked. But the clergy up to this point have had no special security protection. Obviously, that may be reviewed in the wake of today's developments.

BLITZER: The irony, of course, John, is that under Saddam Hussein's regime, the Christian community, as you say, nearly a million Christians in Iraq, had relatively free opportunities to practice their religion, including Tariq Aziz, the former deputy prime minister, who himself was a Christian.

Give us a little background to the Christian community of Iraq.

ALLEN: Well, you're absolutely right. I mean, the -- prior to the overthrow of the Hussein regime, what most Christians would tell you is that certainly Hussein was a brutal dictator, but one of the by-products of that brutality is that it left religious minorities relatively unmolested.

And so Iraq was often thought as a kind of -- an oasis, if you like, for the Christian minority in the Islamic world. And obviously, all of that has now changed.

What most Iraqi Christians will say is they continue to have tremendously good relations with their Muslim neighbors but that the -- the Islamic fundamentalist movements and those that are kind of fomenting the -- most of the violence in these days have a very tough time distinguishing between Christians and the west.

And what has further complicated that is that in the -- since the arrival of the American forces and the coalition forces in Iraq, they have been followed by a fairly large number of Christian missionaries, often Americans, often Protestant evangelicals and Pentecostals. And the presence of those American Christian missionaries has -- has created an atmosphere in which the fundamentalists, the Islamic fundamentalists have an increasingly hard time distinguishing between the Christian presence and the American presence.

BLITZER: John Allen, our CNN Vatican analyst. Thanks, John, very much.

Is the Bush administration eyeing new targets? Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh reports the United States is already carrying out what he calls reconnaissance missions in Iran to identify nuclear and missile sites for possible air strikes.

While tensions are high over Iran's nuclear program, the administration is hotly disputing that claim.

Let's go live to our Pentagon correspondent, Barbara Starr -- Barbara.

BARBARA STARR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, Pentagon officials today are making every effort to signal no attack against Iran is in the works.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

STARR (voice-over): One thing is certain, the U.S. is watching Iran's nuclear program closely. Sources say satellite and aircraft surveillance has been stepped up in recent months.

But is there war planning for an attack against Iran's nuclear sites this summer, as suggested by Seymour Hersh in a "New Yorker" article?

Without responding to the question of a summertime attack, Pentagon officials say Hersh is wrong. Pentagon spokesman Lawrence DiRita said in a statement, quote, "Mr. Hersh's article is so riddled with errors of fundamental fact that the credibility of his entire piece is destroyed."

Hersh believes administration hard-liners do want to attack Iran. HERSH: This is a president that's going to do what he wants to do. And the only thing we can hope is that these guys are right about the world waiting for America to come and remake the Middle East and that Iran will go smoother than Iraq, because they're going to do it. I'm almost -- I'm pretty much convinced of it myself, and so are my sources.

STARR: Hersh says it is part of a broader Pentagon plan to secretly use Special Forces around the world on missions that might have been done by the CIA.

The Pentagon won't say much about Special Forces on the record. Commandos do conduct capture or kill missions in Iraq and Afghanistan and have waged attacks against al Qaeda, but Rumsfeld has indicated he doesn't want to take over CIA efforts.

Hersh insists the U.S. Central Command is updating the war plans, providing for a maximum ground and air invasion of Iran. A senior U.S. military official calls that "absolutely false" and emphasizes contingency plans are updated routinely.

WILLIAM COHEN, FORMER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: It's one thing to have contingency plans, another to actually be contemplating taking military action under the circumstances when, in fact, Iran's a very different country than Iraq.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

STARR: Wolf, one problem now, Pentagon officials know that the Iranians are listening to all of this. They want to make sure the Iranians don't miscalculate and suddenly everyone find themselves in yet another war -- Wolf.

BLITZER: all right. Barbara Starr at the Pentagon. Thanks, Barbara, very much.

To our viewers, here's your chance to weigh in on this story. Our Web question of the day is this: Would you support the U.S. conducting secret reconnaissance missions in Iran? You can vote right now. Go to CNN.com/Wolf. We'll have the results later in this broadcast.

Elsewhere in the Middle East there are signs today that the new Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is feeling the pressure as he answers calls from Israel and the United States to crack down on militant groups.

CNN's Ben Wedeman reports from Gaza.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Patience running out. The people of Sderot demand action from their government. This Israeli town near Gaza comes under regular rocket fire from Palestinian militants. The homemade rockets are crude, but deadly. They've killed four Israelis. "Conquer Gaza now," says this sign in Hebrew.

NOAM PERETZ, SDEROT RESIDENT: We want the government to take all the measures that we will be safe here. It includes all the measure and all the ability of our Israeli force to make it most safe here in Sderot. We live here and we don't want to live in the threat of the -- of the missiles.

WEDEMAN: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is feeling the heat. Sunday evening, he spoke by phone with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, who urged him to rein in the militants. Hours later, Abbas ordered his security forces to stop all attacks.

But Gaza's militants are strong, and Palestinian security forces have been known to turn a blind eye to their activities and in some cases play an active role in them.

The militants, aware the new leader is in the corner.

"We believe Mahmoud Abbas is caught between the hammer and the anvil," says this spokesman for the Aqsa Martyrs Brigade. "Between Israel and the Americans, who are putting him in a very difficult position."

In Hanoumas (ph), a 59-year-old woman and her 28-year-old son were killed in their home late Sunday by Israeli fire. Emotions are high on both sides. More than 20 Palestinians, civilians as well as militants, have been killed in violence since Abbas won the election.

(on camera) Mahmoud Abbas is set to come here shortly to press his demand for a cease-fire. If the militants obey, he could revive peace talks with Israel. If he fails, Israeli officials warn a major military offensive in Gaza could be just weeks away.

Ben Wedeman, CNN, Gaza.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Unprecedented security for the first inauguration since 9/11. What would happen to the U.S. government if the unthinkable did happen?

And presidential pitfalls. The obstacles that have plagued some second terms. The former White House special counsel, Lanny Davis, joins us live on that.

Plus this...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She's kind of come out of the closet, so to speak, out of the fashion closet, that is.

(END VIDEO CLIP) BLITZER: The first lady and fashion, the famous designs that Laura Bush and her daughters will be wearing this week. We're standing by for that.

Also ahead, something you will see only here on CNN. The pilgrimage to Mecca. Muslims worldwide observe the annual Hajj. Our Zain Verjee is live in Saudi Arabia. She'll join us. That's coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: On the "CNN Security Watch," Washington is getting ready for the first presidential inauguration of the post-9/11 era. Thursday's ceremonies here in Washington will be conducted under what's being described as unprecedented security.

Earlier today I talked it over with Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Let me read to you from an article you wrote in "The New Republic." You wrote this.

"The inaugural address is one of the most significant speeches a president makes. The whole spectacle is a celebration of our democracy. It is also the single most vulnerable moment for our constitutional system, far more dangerous than either the conventions, the political conventions, or the general election."

Explain to our viewers what you mean.

NORMAN ORNSTEIN, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: What viewers will see on inauguration day around noon on the west front of the Capitol is the incoming president and vice president, usually the outgoing president and vice president. In this case, just the two of them. All of the Supreme Court, the new cabinet as they're there, the members of the old cabinet, along with all the congressional leaders, most of the members of Congress.

If something happened, a suitcase nuclear bomb or something else, we could wipe out all three blanches and virtually everybody in the line of succession and leave a fog over the country in terms of who is in charge for a very long period of time.

There are ways of dealing with this. We haven't dealt with them.

BLITZER: All right. So let's talk about that. It's a nightmare scenario, a doomsday scenario. As you say, even a small suitcase with a radiological bomb could cause that -- God forbid -- that kind of situation. What would happen?

ORNSTEIN: Well, we would probably end up with large numbers of people who managed to survive popping up and saying, "No problem, I'm in charge here. The old Al Haig scenario, as it were. The problem we've got is we have a Presidential Succession Act written in 1947 that any civics student is familiar with, but it includes only people in Washington.

The outgoing cabinet resigns by custom at noon on January the 20th. So there's nobody there. It's not clear.

Now, we also know in the line of succession, the speaker of the house, the president pro tempore of the Senate. They're gone. If you don't have a Congress with a quorum of half its members to meet, you may not be able to select a new speaker. You may not know for a long time if you have any members of Congress left. Perhaps even a handful could get together then and say that they represent the Congress. Maybe three of them could choose a speaker who becomes the president for four years. Not appropriate.

BLITZER: This sounds like a Tom Clancy novel. But you're really concerned about this?

ORNSTEIN: It used to be Tom Clancy novels. Now these are real tangible problems. We know that suitcase nuclear bombs exist. We know that there are countries and rogue elements, terrorists, evil people out there to try and get them.

Part of the reason we're having this extraordinary security, something 100 times greater than we've seen before here at the inaugural is the fear that something could happen.

And it's only prudent for us, because it's no longer just the stuff of novels, to make sure we've got backup plans in place. But for reasons of inertia, the reason that people don't write wills, our political leaders have not acted.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Norm Ornstein speaking with me earlier today on that, God forbid, doomsday scenario. And please stay tuned to CNN day and night for the most reliable news about your security.

Gathering for the Hajj. Thousands, hundreds of thousands in fact, of Muslims, making the annual pilgrimage.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That was great. I was just looking at the building. I couldn't believe I was here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Our Zain Verjee is also there. She's joining us live from Mecca. That's coming up. This is a story you'll see only on CNN.

Subway accident. Two trains collide during morning rush hour and injuring dozens of people. And presidential problems. The scandals that have plagued some second term presidents. Our Brian Todd standing by to look back at the various pitfalls.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Hundreds of thousands of Muslims from around the world are making their way to the holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia in the annual pilgrimage called the Hajj.

CNN's Zain Verjee is among only a few journalists from western news organizations reporting live from Mecca. She's joining us now to explain what the Hajj is all about, why it's so important -- Zain.

ZAIN VERJEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, it's the largest gathering of humanity in one place at one time.

Pilgrims that we've spoken to here are in awe. It's emotional for them. And they're excited. Here's why the Hajj is so important to Muslims.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

VERJEE (voice-over): It's the holiest city on earth for Muslims, Mecca. Nestled between hills in the Arabian Desert. The young California based Iman Kahir Amwar (ph) has been here often.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's the most beautiful feeling in the world.

VERJEE: Two billion people descend on the heart of the Muslim world for the pilgrimage known as the Hajj. The Hajj is one of the five pillars of Islam. Performing it is mandatory for Muslims at least once, if health and wealth permit.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That building in the middle covered in a black colored cloth...

VERJEE: Muslims around the world pray toward this, the Kabah, five times a day. Imam Kahir (ph) describes his emotion when he first saw it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I was dazed. I was just looking at the building. I couldn't believe I was here.

VERJEE: Islamic scholars say that prophet Abraham built the Kabah as the first house of God. In a ritual called tawaf, pilgrims circle the Kabah seven times to symbolize that God is at the center of their lives.

Then a run between two hills that recalls a search for water by Abraham's wife.

But first, the transformation known as Irham. Imam Kahir (ph) takes us to the outskirts of Mecca.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The actual limits begins here, ends here. So you must be in the state of Irham before you actually walk over to that side.

VERJEE: Men wear two white unstitched sheets that symbolize purity and equality. Women wear modest clothes and cover their heads.

After the pilgrims state their intention to perform Hajj, there's a set of rules like no quarreling, no perfume, no haircuts, no sex. On a designated day, pilgrims leave Mecca for tented encampment amid the desert dunes.

Imam Kahir (ph) maps out their journey of faith.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They spend their first initial day in the tent city on Minah (ph).

VERJEE: When the sun rises, the pilgrims head to the plain of Arafat.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is the most important day of Hajj. They spend this day in prayer.

VERJEE: Then a stop at Mousdalafa (ph) to pick up stones. Then back to Minah (ph) where pilgrims hurl the stones at three pillars in a symbolic rejection of the devil's temptation.

Exhausted but exhilarated, the pilgrims return for a feast called Eid and recount their unique desert experience.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You forget that you're a CEO of a company. You forget that you have a few hundred e-mails to check. You forget that you have a cell phone that's ringing.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VERJEE: The first day of Hajj begins tomorrow, Wolf. There's a real atmosphere of anticipation as pilgrims begin their spiritual journey of a lifetime.

BLITZER: Zain, I understand you actually made it down there in the midst of all those religious symbols. What was it like?

VERJEE: Wolf, we went there last night. And it was really emotionally charged. There was a lot of chanting, different people chanting different prayers.

And as we weaved in and out of the crowded area around the Kabah, we saw groups of people holding on tightly to each other, hoping that they wouldn't get separated. We saw men forming a ring around their group of women to keep them safe and to make sure that they don't get separated. We saw one old blind woman alone, tapping a stick and going around the Kabah.

A lot of people try to touch the Kabah. You see it there behind me. And it's very difficult to do that, simply because of the crowds. We saw one man who managed to reach the Kaban, and he was rubbing a blue velvet cloth on it. One of the things that happens when you're down there is that people raise their hands like this in acknowledgment of a black stone that has a historical significance. The black stone is lying directly with the one single minaret you see behind me. So people know exactly where to locate it. They do it and raise their hand, as I said, in acknowledgment. And sometimes they raise two hands, just their hands, because they're not able to reach it, the Kabah, that is.

It took us 12 to 15 minutes in total to circle the Kabah once. And today it's more crowded and will take a lot longer -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Let's hope it all remains very peaceful over the next several days. Zain Verjee is on the scene for us. She'll be reporting daily on this program.

Zain, thank you very much. An excellent report.

Now, let's take a quick look at some other news making headlines around the world.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

At least 160 people were hurt in a collision on Bangkok's six- month-old subway. An empty train slammed into a full one during rush hour this morning. Officials blame human error and say the system will be shut down for a week.

Raging wildfires. Crews are battling multiple blazes threatening communities outside Perth, Australia. Shifting winds and temperatures topping 100 degrees are making the job difficult.

Death in disgrace. China's state news agency reports former communist party leader Zhao Ziyang has died at age 85. He led the country in political and economic reform but was ousted and put under house arrest in 1989 when he publicly sympathized with Tiananmen Square protesters.

Claiming a record. Doctors in Romania say a 66-year-old woman there has become the oldest ever to give birth. The three-pound baby, conceived in vitro with donor sperm and egg, was delivered by cesarean. But a twin died in the womb.

And that's our look around the world.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: George W. Bush is getting ready to celebrate the start of another presidential term. But can he avoid the pitfalls so many other two-term presidents seem to fall into? The former White House special counsel Lanny Davis joins me live to discuss second-term scandals, a subject he knows quite well.

Plus, this:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think comparing Laura Bush now to four years ago is like an extreme makeover.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: The first family's fashion. What will Laura Bush and her daughters be wearing on Inauguration Day? Our Mary Snow joins us with a sneak peek. That's coming up.

And he plays the president on TV, but he has several roles in a play about human rights. We'll have a conversation with the actor Martin Sheen.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back.

Second-term pitfalls, the political obstacles that some former presidents have encountered, we'll get to that.

First, a quick check of some other stories now in the news.

The Vatican is calling the kidnapping of a Catholic archbishop in Iraq a terrorist act. The archbishop was taken captive today in Mosul, an area that is home to thousands of Christians. Iraq is heavily Muslim. Christians make up about 3 percent of the country.

New Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has made a possibly groundbreaking move. He's ordered Palestinian security forces to stop militant attacks on Israelis. Abbas also launched an investigation into a Palestinian attack last week that killed six Israelis. Israel cautiously welcomed the announcement.

Here in the United States, near Park City, Utah, the search for avalanche victims goes on. But it's expected to be the last day of large-scale searching. Yesterday, searchers found the body of one of the five skiers believed to be buried beneath tons of snow.

President Bush has set an ambitious second-term agenda. But if history is any guide, he could face some significant bumps in the road to establishing the legacy he desires.

CNN's Brian Todd is over at Lafayette Park across the street from the White House. He picks up the story -- Brian.

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, if you look at all the second-term presidents, at least in the postwar era, the record does offer some striking historical insights and possible warnings for the next four years.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TODD (voice-over): Supremely confident, steadfast in his agenda, seasoned from an eventful first term, this is a president whose roughest days may still lie ahead.

JEFF LICHTMAN, DEFENSE ATTORNEY: Second-term presidencies have been remarkably difficult in the postwar era. TODD: From Truman's war fatigue to Clinton's impeachment, from the personal to the political, second-term presidencies consistently have been tormented by scandal or war. All different in nuance, they have, nonetheless, shown us historical patterns that are worth watching for in the next four years. An unpopular, drawn-out war, historians say, is a characteristic danger.

PROF. STEPHEN J. WAYNE, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: If the war persists and there is no remedy, then the president who is in power gets blamed for the fact that he got us into this and he can't seem to get us out of it.

TODD: That was an albatross that led Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman to scrap prospective second runs for the presidency, even though both were eligible. In scandal, as in war, the commander in chief bears the ultimate responsibility. But often, the worst abuses, especially in second terms, are committed by overzealous aides.

The Iran-Contra scandal to a great extent was driven by Ronald Reagan's national security team. How much the president knew is still an open question.

RONALD REAGAN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We did not, repeat, did not, trade weapons or anything else for hostages.

RICHARD NIXON, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: At noon tomorrow.

TODD: More than a decade earlier, loyal advisers had taken a president's darkest ideas to literal extremes.

LICHTMAN: A lot of Richard Nixon's very dangerous and undemocratic tendencies were reinforced by the sounding board of his top aide, including people that went to jail, like his attorney general, John Mitchell, his top domestic aides, Erlichman and Haldeman.

TODD: One historian sees a potential problem with the current president's aides.

WAYNE: He doesn't surround himself with a lot of advisers who believe different things. They're all essentially on the same wavelength.

TODD: Scandal or war, political or personal, second-term crises do seem to have one character flaw in common, the arrogance of power.

LICHTMAN: Maybe second-term presidents had been on the mountaintop too long, are breathing rarefied air and think they can do anything.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TODD: But if we're drawing these parallels, bear in mind one other. As Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton showed us, presidents can ride out their crises and leave office on a wave of popularity -- Wolf. BLITZER: Brian Todd reporting from Lafayette Park -- thank you, Brian, very much.

Lanny Davis knows a great deal about second-term turmoil. He was White House special counsel to President Clinton during part of that second-term. He's joining us here in Washington.

Now, Lanny, thanks very much.

What kind of advice would you have for this president, President Bush, a man you know personally since your days at Yale?

LANNY DAVIS, FORMER WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL: I know him. And I know him fondly as a human being. And what I think is his strength is his compassion and his concern for people.

And the real question is, in his second term, does he run for history and reach out to the center, where there really is a vacuum, or does he keep appealing to his right wing politically? And he's got to decide, is history more important to him than keeping the Republican base happy?

BLITZER: So what lessons from Clinton's mistakes in the second- term that resulted in his impeachment, if not conviction -- he was impeached -- would you recommend that this president avoid?

DAVIS: Well, certainly reach out to the other side and move to the center. President Clinton had a Republican Congress that was investigating him not just in the Monica Lewinsky episode, but back to Whitewater and all the other investigations.

President Bush has the advantage of both houses of Congress. He now can use that as a base to reach out to the Democrats and actually solve problems in a bipartisan fashion. That would mean he runs for history, rather than just rebuild or strengthen the Republican right wing, which is what I think he should avoid.

BLITZER: And if you look back to the second term of Ronald Reagan's presidency, he had a huge problem with Iran-Contra. You lived through that era. You saw the pitfalls, how that developed. This president has to remember that as well and avoiding foreign entanglements that could go awry.

DAVIS: Well, the war is a very crucial issue for President Bush. He put us in there for reasons he believed were necessary.

But he's not been willing to acknowledge the difficulties and level with the American people about the problems of exit. That will be the ultimate test for his presidency. But, again, he can build goodwill if he reaches out to the Democrats. And there are lots of centrist Democrats, like Joe Lieberman, like Evan Bayh, who are waiting to work with the president to solve the country's problems.

And I think the recent statement that he made about not going after a constitutional amendment on traditional marriage definitions is a good sign that he's willing to challenge his right wing and move to the center.

BLITZER: In that interview he gave to "The Washington Post" yesterday, he said, realistically, it was unrealistic to seek a constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage in the United States. So it's unlikely he's going to push for it right now, although he says he would still support it.

Are there other things he should avoid, knowing the experience of other second-term presidents that you've studied?

DAVIS: Well, I think that he has a possible hubris issue, in that he sees himself winning by a majority vote and by a record number of votes. So he's got to avoid arrogance. That's one issue that can set in.

But my memory of the Clinton White House and certainly of President Bush I and other presidencies is, it is really up to the individual to decide how he wants to be regarded in history.

BLITZER: Well, what about this notion that he's surrounding himself in the second term only with like-minded individuals, people who basically agree with him on almost everything? He doesn't have the naysayers, if you will, that might caution him and do him a favor in the long run.

DAVIS: Well, I'm not sure that's a judgment I would make.

He has a right to put staff around him who have gotten him where he is. Karl Rove is a very brilliant practitioner. And I don't blame President Bush for wanting to keep Karl Rove around. But I do think that, in reaching out to the center and to the Democratic Party, he has an historic opportunity. Remember, as governor of Texas, he governed in the center. He ran as a compassionate conservative.

And he needs to think about how history is going to judge him. If he moves to the center, he could end up with a successful second term.

BLITZER: Lanny Davis went to Yale with both President Clinton and President Bush. That's a pretty unique phenomenon. He was your fraternity brother, President Bush.

DAVIS: President Bush and I partied together and we were good friends.

BLITZER: Off camera, we'll talk about it.

(LAUGHTER)

BLITZER: Lanny Davis, thanks very much.

Thursday's inauguration isn't just about politics. It's also about fashion.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) JAMES MISCHKA, DESIGNER: I think the dresses are very appropriate for them. They're young, sophisticated. But I think they look fantastic in them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: But can Jenna Bush avoid having another, shall we say, wardrobe malfunction, like she did in 2000? Coming up, a preview of what the president's daughters will be wearing when their dad takes the oath of office.

Plus, Martin Luther King Jr., honors for an icon four decades after he accepted the Nobel Peace Prize. I'll speak with actor and activist Martin Sheen.

And in our weekend snapshot, an update on the condition of these beached whales. We'll tell you what's going on.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: This week's inauguration just parties and politics. For some, fashion comes first, especially when it comes to what the women of the first family will be wearing.

CNN's Mary Snow is in New York. She's picking up this part of the story -- Mary.

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Wolf.

While so much focus is on Pennsylvania Avenue, there's a lot of buzz here in Manhattan's Seventh Avenue, the heart of the fashion district, this as designers put the final touches on fashion for the women of the White House.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SNOW (voice-over): Behind the pomp and circumstance of the inauguration is the couture. In 2000, first lady Laura Bush wore red. This time, she's going for a subtle and sophisticated look with Oscar de la Renta, who created designs for Hillary Clinton.

PHILLIP BLOCH, CELEBRITY STYLIST: I think comparing Laura Bush now to four years ago is like an extreme makeover, basically. It is like the swan. She's kind of come out of the closet, so to speak, out of the fashion closet, that is.

SNOW: By day, the first lady will wear winter white, and by night, a silvery blue gown. She'll share the limelight with her daughters, who have chosen a first-time fashionista team for the White House.

MARK BADGLEY, DESIGNER: Well, caller I.D. comes up, the White House. And we're like, oh, I think we should take this call.

SNOW: Mark Badgley and James Mischka have dressed the likes of Halle Berry and Beyonce, before dressing the Bush twins. BADGLEY: It is actually very much like doing a gown for the Academy Awards. You're working with a girl. You're collaborating with her. She has some ideas. You have some ideas. That's how we usually work. And it's very, very much the same thing, except you're dealing with Secret Service, instead of stylists.

SNOW: And the style of the women of the White House is something that seems to intrigue us.

LISA GRADDY, SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTE: According to visitor surveys, it is the most popular exhibit at the Natural Museum of American History.

SNOW: Jacqueline Kennedy's gown is a big draw, along with Nancy Reagan's, whose designs stand beside Barbara Bush and Rosalynn Carter.

GRADDY: We guess about public figures through their clothing sometimes. What does that dress say about that person? Does it say that she has a Bohemian style? Does it say that she's modest?

SNOW: Not so modest will be the gowns for the Bush twins. But the designers promise no wardrobe malfunctions, like Jenna's falling strap in 2000.

MISCHKA: You have to walk a fine line. We didn't want to overdo it. I think the dresses are very appropriate for them. They're young, sophisticated. But I think they look fantastic in them. And they're discrete enough. And, you know, it's just trying to strike that balance that was really our aim on this project.

SNOW: And, as for the fashion for the star of the show, President Bush will be wearing the Washington uniform.

BLOCH: It is what it is. It's going to be a dark suit. There is going to be a red tie, I'm sure.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SNOW: And the women certainly getting more attention in the fashion light. Also, the designers for Jenna and Barbara Bush say they're 100 percent guaranteed no wardrobe malfunctions this time around -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Mary Snow in New York -- thanks, Mary, very much.

Remembering Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. The actor Martin Sheen is involved in honoring the civil rights leader today. On this special day, my interview with him coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It's the story of generations not having received the promises, but having seen them afar off. And it's the story of Americans like Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., who held our nation to those promises and would not rest until they were written into law.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: The president honoring Dr. Martin Luther King only within the past hour here in Washington.

Over the weekend, King holiday observances included a special theatrical performance in King's hometown of Atlanta. Among those participating, the actor Martin Sheen. I spoke with him earlier.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MARTIN SHEEN, ACTOR: To a certain extent, it has. But, remember, Reverend King was an international figure. He spoke to human rights of the world. And, in large measure, he was equally celebrated in the Third World, as he was in Third World America primarily.

So, although, you know, you have to honestly admit that, no, the dream has not been realized, and particularly among the poor of our own country, but it's still alive. It's very much alive in the hearts of those that remember him and the new ones that are discovering and hearing the echo of that dream from so long ago.

BLITZER: How disappointed are you right now looking back on John Kerry's defeat? Would that have made a significant difference on the issue of race in America if John Kerry had defeated President Bush?

SHEEN: It could very well have. You know, I couldn't say for certain.

I don't really think that racism is going to be solved on the political level. I think that it's the nongovernment organizations. The NGOs are really in the forefront, the grassroots organizations that live and work among the people in the neighborhoods.

Remember, that, you know, Reverend King was never elected to public office. He was a moral crusader. He was a populist from the people. And he ascended because of his own belief and his own personal commitment to nonviolence and an end to racism. So he was, you know, a great inspiration to many of the people in the NGOs around the world.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER: Martin Sheen speaking with me earlier on this day.

Now a look at some stories you may have missed this past weekend.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BLITZER (voice-over): The man accused of being the ringleader in the Abu Ghraib prison scandal is serving a 10-year sentence after his conviction Saturday at Fort Hood, Texas. Charles Graner, who was an Army Reserve specialist, was also demoted to private and will receive a dishonorable discharge after he's released. He's first the first soldier to face trial among the seven military guards charged with abusing detainees at the Baghdad prison.

Former Pro Bowl Center Barret Robbins is in a Miami hospital after he was shot by a police officer Saturday night. Police say Robbins was shot while struggling with an officer investigating a burglary. It's not clear whether charges have been filed.

Experts are trying to determine why 30 whales beached themselves along North Carolina's Outer Banks. Some whales managed to free themselves. Others died or had to be put to sleep.

The Golden Globes have been handed out. And best picture awards went to "The Aviator" and "Sideways." The top TV shows, "Desperate Housewives" and "Nip/Tuck."

And that's our weekend snapshot.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Here's our Web question of the day.

"LOU DOBBS TONIGHT" starts right now.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com