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Polls Give GOP Momentum on Election Eve; Paul Optimistic GOP Will Take Senate; Biden States Democrats Will Keep Senate; Voters Agree with Our Positions; It's a Frightening World; Plenty of Time to Decide on 2016; Biden Has Been Aggressively Campaigning; Control of Senate at Stake on Election Eve; Obama Campaign Stops; Balance of Power

Aired November 03, 2014 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Happening now, the final push. So many races across the country are coming down to the wire. The balance of power in America hinges on crucial votes in races that are neck in neck. Who will take control and who will be left picking up the pieces?

-- and 6:00 p.m. in London, 8:00 p.m. in Jerusalem, 9:00 in Moscow. Wherever you're watching from around the world, thanks very much for joining us.

We begin with the final push for votes on this, the eve of the 2014 midterm elections. The control of the United States Senate hanging in the balance. But some new polls may give Republicans momentum and sources from both parties now say a GOP takeover of the Senate could be coming.

We're covering the election as only CNN can with reports from Iowa to Colorado to Kentucky and beyond. We'll also get the view from the White House, including an exclusive interview with the vice president, Joe Biden.

First, here is where things stand in the final hours before the election. Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take control of the Senate and they are optimistic. Listen to what Senator Rand Paul, a possible 2016 presidential contender told our Candy Crowley.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Will the Republicans take over control of the Senate?

SEN. RAND PAUL (R), KENTUCKY: I think in all likelihood, yes. I think the wins that are back, I think this election is going to be a referendum on the president. Even he acknowledged his policies will be on the ballot. And he will be in --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Part of the reason for the optimism, a new Des Moines register poll showing Republican Joni Ernst leading Democrat Bruce Braley in the Iowa Senate race 51 to 44 percent. But hold on. A new Quinnipiac University Poll puts the race dead even at 47 percent. Iowa isn't the only state where new polls have Democrats worried though. The latest surveys give Republicans a boost in Kentucky, Georgia, and Louisiana. With so much at stake and so many close races, both sides brought out the big name surrogates during the final weekend of campaigning. Among those on the campaign trail, Bill and Hillary Clinton and the New Jersey governor, Chris Christie. Vice President Joe Biden has also been campaigning for his fellow Democrats, including a weekend swing through Florida for the gubernatorial candidate, Charlie Crist. Biden has been exuding plenty of confidence that the Democrats will keep control of the Senate after tomorrow.

Our own Gloria Borger sat down for an exclusive interview with the vice president. She asked why he was so confident that his party can defy the odds' makers?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOE BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: First of all, I don't agree with the odd makers. I predict we're going to -- we're going to keep the Senate.

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: You do?

BIDEN: I've been into 66, 67 races all told and I don't get the feeling that the odds makers are given.

BORGER: But what if that were to be the case?

BIDEN: Well, I don't think it will change anything, in terms of what we -- what we're about. We know we have to get done the last two years and, quite frankly, going into 2016, the Republicans have to make a decision whether they're in control or not in control or they're re going to begin to allow things to happen or they're going to continue to be obstructionists. And I think they're going to choose to get things done.

BORGER: Will the White House have to change the way that it does business?

BIDEN: No, I don't think we have to change the way we've done it. I think we have to be -- I think we have to be more direct and clear about exactly what it is we're looking to do. And, look, we're ready to compromise. I think they're going to be inclined because the message from the people, and I'm getting it all over the country, is they're tired of Washington not being able to do anything.

BORGER: So, here we are out in Florida.

BIDEN: Yes.

BORGER: And you were here campaigning here for Charlie Crist.

BIDEN: Yes. BORGER: And the president has stayed mostly back in D.C., largely because Democrats in red states wanted him to stay in D.C. Was that the right strategy, keeping the president off the campaign trail in a large way?

BIDEN: Hey, look, I ran for the Senate six times. And one of the things I know about Senate races, off years and on races -- and on years, the same with governor races, is that it's all local. It all gets down to what the specific issues in that -- in that district are, that state is. And each senator makes a judgment about whether or not he'll be -- he thinks it's helpful or hurtful.

BORGER: Yes, but this is the president of the United States. You've got a lot of Democrats up for re-election. Normally, you'd have the president out there.

BIDEN: Well, you know, look, we've been through this a lot. There are lots of places where in first term, second term, George Bush didn't show up. The older Bush, Reagan. I mean, you know, every state is different. And, look, here's the deal, if you look at every single major issue in this campaign, the American public agrees with our position, from federal support to infrastructure to minimum wage to marriage equality, every single poll.

BORGER: But wait a minute, but our polls show voters are angry, they're fearful, they're frustrated, not only about domestic policy like the rollout of the president's health care reform but also on the handling of Ebola and ISIS. So, the -- you know, the question is, how do you fix that? I mean, the public isn't with you on that.

BIDEN: Two issues. What the republic -- the public is concerned and frightened because it's a frightening world. A lot has happened. And what happens, Gloria, in every one of these crisis, there's all kinds of attention, understandably, from Twitter to major programs like yours. But what happens is when the follow up occurs, there's not much follow up. For example, when the Russians invaded, crossed the border into Ukraine, it was, my god, it's over and things are going to -- you know, why did they do it? To stop an election from occurring. To keep Ukraine from moving west. But all those things happened. We put it under control. Still a problem.

BORGER: So, the public shouldn't be anxious about Ebola --

BIDEN: No.

BORGER: -- or ISIS?

BIDEN: No, I think the public should not be as anxious as they are but it's understandable why they are. There is no existential threat to the United States right now. There are fewer than five cases of Ebola in the entire United States of America. The American public's gaining confidence in the fact and the way this is being handled, that science does matter.

You look at what is happening with ISIS. ISIS is not an existential threat to something happening somewhere in the United States of America. It's a serious problem overseas but it's confusing and frightening and it's totally understandable. We've got to figure out, we, the president and I, have to figure out how to better communicate exactly what's being done. That's part of the problem. That's part of the dilemma.

BORGER: Let's move to 2016 --

BIDEN: OK.

BORGER: -- and you. I need to ask you, of course, where's your head right now on the -- on the race?

BIDEN: It's my job. There's plenty of time to make that decision.

BORGER: There is?

BIDEN: Oh, there really is. I mean, look, everybody talks about how, you know, everything's going to be gone by the summer. And I don't see that at all. I'm confident and if I decide and I haven't made up my mind.

BORGER: Where is it, 50-50, 60-40?

BIDEN: Well, I haven't focused on -- I haven't made up my mind what I'm going to do.

BORGER: It's not about Hillary?

BIDEN: No. Well, it really is not. I mean, you know me too well. I mean, if I run, I'm confident I will be able to mount a campaign that can be financed and it will be credible and it will be serious.

BORGER: Will you run if she runs?

BIDEN: Absolutely. That's not the reason not to run or to run. The question is, am I -- do I -- am I convinced I am best positioned of anyone else to lead the country the next four years?

BORGER: Are you?

BIDEN: That's a decision I have to make.

BORGER: Everybody's talking about Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. Doesn't that kind of annoy you to a degree?

BIDEN: No, not at all. I mean, it really -- I know you know me well. It really doesn't bother me at all. What I am focused on, for real -- I know I sound -- and even when I say it, it doesn't sound real.

BORGER: Right.

BIDEN: No. But I, honest to god, have not made up my mind. It's just that basic, that simple.

(END VIDEOTAPE) BLITZER: The vice president, Gloria, is with me right now. You also asked him a good -- a good and important question, what if the Republicans take the majority in the U.S. Senate? What does the White House do for the final two years of its administration?

BORGER: Well, he talked about compromise. And I think what you see is the beginning of an outline of a strategy which is we're willing to compromise. It depends whether the Republicans will be able to get their act together in the House and the Senate because now they will control, if it were to happen, one branch of government.

So, you know, I think he was laying that out and saying, OK, folks, we're willing to do things. I think -- he didn't say it but in my discussions with folks at the White House, perhaps some kind of corporate tax return, perhaps some infrastructure, fixing roads, bridges, that kind of thing. But, obviously, this is their strategy, we're willing to do it, the public is sick of gridlock. Now, it's up to you guys in the Republican Party.

BLITZER: Has he made any difference out there on the campaign trail?

BORGER: Hard to know.

BLITZER: I know he's campaigned with some gubernatorial Democrats.

BORGER: Right.

BLITZER: Has he gone out with any of these embattled Democratic senators?

BORGER: Yes, he has -- well, he has a little and he's gone out with Congressional candidates a lot. And I think what you see with Joe Biden is what you've seen with the president of the United States. The president of the United States very unpopular, being kept out of red states. I think the same thing goes for Joe Biden. He was in Florida yesterday with Charlie Crist because what they are trying to do, they're done persuading people, early voting in Florida.

I was with him at a rally. They were saying to people at that rally, largely African-American voters, OK, now you've got to get to the polls to early vote and that's where someone like Joe Biden can be very influential. And I think if Democrats lose the Senate, there's going to be a lot of questions being asked about whether the president should have been used more to motivate the base, to get his base out to vote.

BLITZER: Yes, that will be a good question and we'll have more of your interview with the vice president in "THE SITUATION ROOM" later today as well. Gloria, thanks very much.

BORGER: Sure.

BLITZER: Coming up, Republicans need just six seats to take over the Senate. We're taking a closer look at some of the closest races and you're going to find out which ones could swing the balance of power. And the president is back at the White House today. But why is he

there when so many races are coming down to the wire? We're going to hear the most recent comments, also, about the Iowa Republican, Joni Ernst. We'll take a closer look at what left her so deeply offended.

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BLITZER: If you believe some polls, it was a solid weekend for Republicans, the GOP apparently making gains in key Senate races including Georgia, Kentucky and Iowa where one poll has Joni Ernst, the Republican leading by seven points over Democratic Bruce Braley. But another poll has the race dead even. Can the Republicans gain the necessary six seats in the nation's tightest Senate races and take control of both houses of Congress?

Our Political Analyst Ron Brownstein is joining us now. Ron, what should we make of these latest polls? Because like in Iowa, for example, they seem to be all over the place.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. Yes, I mean, and partially what you're seeing is just variation in polling but there's also an underlying question that's relevant here. Obviously, the overall movement is toward Republicans in that and given that the map has been troubling for Democrats right from the outset that they are defending seven Senate seats and states have voted against President Obama in 2012, that always made this tough plus his weakness has allowed Republicans to expand the map and put into play three Senate seats and states, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire, that did vote for him. And then, Democrats have a few opportunities in red states, primarily Georgia and Kansas but those look tough.

Essentially, the big question, I think, in the final hours, or the only remaining question is, who turns out to vote? Does the actual electorate look different than the electorate that pollsters are modeling, particularly in some of these battleground states where Democrats have invested a lot of money trying to turn out their presidential year coalition. If they can do that, in places probably Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina being the best examples, they may be able to salvage some of those seats. But if they can't, and this kind of model of who the likely voters are holds up, then Republicans could have a very, very good night.

BLITZER: So the ground game tomorrow will be critical, a turnout, as you point out. In midterm elections, there usually is enough huge turnout, though, is there?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Right. Right. And, in fact, the Democrats now face a structural problem. I mean their modern presidential level coalition, which has won the popular vote in five of the past six presidential elections, is heavily dependent on young people and minority voters who turn out much less in midterms than in the presidential year. So they are facing a kind of -- in addition to all of the other challenges they have, the six-year itch, the fact that the president's party almost always does poorly in an election six years into his term, the map where they are defending seven seats, as I said, in red states at a time when it's becoming harder for parties to win Senate seats in states that usually vote the other way for president. Plus, Obama's own weakness with an approval rating in the low 40s, all of these things reinforce the underlying kind of systemic problem that now midterm elections are tougher for Democrats than presidential elections because they are heavily dependent on minority and young people who don't vote as often historically in the midterms.

BLITZER: If the Democrats were to lose some of those states that President Obama carried twice, let's talk about New Hampshire, Iowa, for example -

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BLITZER: Will people look back and say the democratic candidate should have done more to bring the president in because he may have been better suited to bring that turnout out there?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, that's a really good question. I have two thoughts about that. First, whether or not you bring in the president, you are tied to him in modern politics. In 2006, George Bush's approval rating was at 45 percent or below in 20 states that had Senate races. The Republicans lost 19 of the 20. In 2010, Obama was at 47 or below in 15 states with Senate races. Democrats lost 13 of the 15. Whether you run with or against the president in modern politics, you are tied to him.

I think the question for the Democrats is not so much whether they should have brought in Obama personally more, it's that they really did not develop a good way to talk about what has or has not been achieved over these past six years. They did not really have a coherent defense of the administration's record and that, I think, is a challenge that goes beyond this election. It's something - it's a puzzle that Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden is going to have to solve in 2016, can you defend what the administration has accomplished more effectively than Democratic candidates did this year. That's going to be a challenge I think they're going to have to cross by 2016 if they want to hold the White House.

Sort of reminds me of the dilemma, remember 2000 and Al Gore, when he was defeated for president of the United States, he didn't use the then president, Bill Clinton, in his home state of Arkansas.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BLITZER: And if he had carried Arkansas, that would have been the difference right there.

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

BLITZER: But you could go back and look back at history and I guess come up with different conclusions all the time.

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

BLITZER: And I suppose people will be doing that after tomorrow as well.

Ron, thanks very much. Ron Brownstein helping us better appreciate what's going on.

Meanwhile, the president has only been making very limited campaign appearances, so why wouldn't the candidate want the commander in chief of the United States helping to get out the vote?

Plus, what the president's final two years might look like if Republicans control both houses.

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BLITZER: President Obama has been mostly sidelined during the midterm campaign and many Democrats didn't want to be tied to a president with sagging poll numbers. The president wrapped up the last of his limited campaign push over the weekend. He was the headliner at rallies for two Democratic candidates for governor, Tom Wolf in Pennsylvania and the incumbent Dan Malloy in Connecticut.

Let's bring in our senior White House correspondent Jim Acosta. He's joining us from the White House.

Jim, at stops over the weekend, the president focused in on trying to get voters to the polls tomorrow. Can he still motivate, mobilize that huge Democratic base if it's ready to get out there and support candidates?

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, the president was doing all that he could or was allowed to do this weekend, Wolf. It is pretty telling, pretty striking to note that the president is not only not campaigning with Democratic candidates today, he's not out in front of the cameras. There are no scheduled events for the president to be out in front of the cameras today. So he is laying low. But as you said, Wolf, he was out on the campaign trail over the weekend but primarily with gubernatorial candidates. He was with one Senate candidate, Gary Peters up in Michigan, but Peters is expected to win that race in Michigan, so that doesn't really count.

But the president was trying to turn out voters, primarily African- American and women voters, two bases of support that have been pivotal for the president in elections past. And consider how the president tried to prod Democrats to go out and vote in tomorrow's midterms, saying that the Ukrainians do a better job in their elections than Americans do. Here's what the president had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And Ukraine just went through an election. They've got a war going on and they had about 60 percent turnout. I -- there is no excuse for us to just give away our power. If you wonder why things don't happen, if you wonder why sometimes elected officials don't seem responsive, it's because so many of us stay at home.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ACOSTA: Now, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest just wrapped up the White House Briefing here. He said that the president is also confident, as is Vice President Joe Biden, that Democrats will retain control of the Senate. Vice President Biden saying that to our Gloria Borger earlier today. But Josh Earnest said, whatever the outcome is of tomorrow's midterms, Wolf, he said try not to reach too much into what the voters say in these midterms. Of course the White House would want to say that at this point because really, Wolf, it does not look that good for them as we get close to tomorrow's midterms.

BLITZER: It doesn't. But it's not over until it's over, as they say. We'll see what happens when people actually show up and vote. Jim Acosta, thanks very much.

Still ahead, if Republicans win big in tomorrow's election, will that pave the way for a White House victory in 2016? Our next guest says not necessarily. The former White House adviser David Gergen standing by to explain.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back to our viewers in the United States and around the world. I'm Wolf Blitzer reporting from Washington.

At stake in tomorrow's midterm elections here in the United States, nothing less than a possible shift of power in the U.S. government. Here's the makeup of the Senate as it stands right now. Republicans need to win six seats to get control of both houses of Congress, the House and the Senate. Joining us here in Washington is our chief congressional correspondent Dana Bash, and joining us from Harvard University, our senior political analyst David Gergen.

David, let me start with you. If the Republicans were to become the majority in the Senate as of tomorrow, would that necessarily mean they would have a clear path to becoming the power in the White House in 2016?

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Not at all, Wolf. And it's worth remembering, it's a cautionary note in this election, even as the Republicans seem poised for big victories tomorrow night. To those who think that, well, this means they've got a clear shot at the White House, they could take Congress and the White House the next time, there are big boulders in the path, mainly something called the blue wall. We haven't talked much about the blue wall in this election, and rightly so.

But the blue wall is a set of 18 states plus the District of Columbia that, over the last six presidential elections, that's a long time, six straight presidential elections have voted Democratic every time. Every time. Now, in terms of - you know, you need 270 electoral votes to win the White House. Those 18 states plus the District of Columbia represent 242 votes, 242 out of the 270. You only need 28 more to get to the White House. Florida with 29, that puts you in there. That's what the Republicans are up against.