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Jordan Strikes Back; Crisis in Ukraine Escalates; Obama Calls ISIS Brutal Vicious Death Cult; Jordan Launches New Strikes Against ISIS; Jordan Vows Earthshaking Retaliation; U.S. ISIS Strategy; Rep. Mike McCaul Interview

Aired February 05, 2015 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, I'm Wolf Blitzer. It's 1:00 p.m. here in Washington, 8:00 p.m. in Amman, Jordan, 8:00 p.m. on Kiev, Ukraine. Wherever you're watching from around the world, thanks very much for joining us.

Jordanian fighter jets striking back against ISIS and the United States turning up the heat on Russia as the crisis in Ukraine escalates. We're following minute-by-minute breaking developments in these major international hot spots. Jordan makes good on its promise to step up air strikes on ISIS targets after the barbaric murder of one of its fighter pilots. We're going live to Amman and to the Pentagon.

And secretary of state John Kerry, he's in Ukraine right now where pro-Russian separatists seem to be gaining significant ground. The situation there is described by a U.S. official as dire. We're going to have the latest live from Kiev. Jim Sciutto is standing by.

But let's begin with Jordan and this dramatic fight against ISIS. President Obama condemned the terror group during remarks at the National Prayer Breakfast earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: From a school in Pakistan to the streets of Paris, we have seen violence and terror perpetrated by those who profess to stand up for faith, their faith; profess to stand up for Islam but, in fact, are betraying it. You see ISIL, a brutal, vicious death cult that, in the name of religion, carries out unspeakable acts of barbarism.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: A Jordanian government spokesperson says Jordan is determined to go after ISIS targets. He says, and I'm quoting, "We want to make sure that they will pay for the crime they did and the atrocity they did to our pilot."

Let's bring in our Correspondent Becky Anderson. She's in Amman. Barbara Starr, she's over at the Pentagon. Becky, what are -- what are you hearing from top Jordanian officials about the latest air strikes and Jordan's vow to step up the fight against ISIS? BECKY ANDERSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. And I've been talking to a lot of sources here today in Amman. Let's be very clear that we are getting no official confirmation from the Jordanian army that air strikes actually happened over Raqqa today. What we do know is that King Abdullah told the father of the pilot, he was at a mourning service today sending his condolences to the family of Moaz Al Kasasbeh, that he had authorized strikes. So, as I say, no official confirmation. But the king told the father in private that he had authorized strikes over Raqqa. There is a significant concern here about just how active ISIS is in Iraq and in Syria. And this comes at a time, Wolf, which is interesting, when it is unclear about the extent of the involvement, at present, of the other Arab allies in the air.

Certainly, the tribes are active on the ground in Iraq and in Syria, waging a fight against ISIS. And this appeal from King Abdullah to Washington just, what, 72 hours ago was that he feels that there is a real need, at this point, a real urgent need, to get on with this job before ISIS gains more ground. That those tribes do need significant support and that would be with the superior support from the U.S., from the air and through intelligence on the ground as well.

So, a very interesting situation here at present. What are the other Arab allies doing to support this coalition? But, certainly Jordan, it seems, very, very active as the king vows to destroy this group.

BLITZER: Yes, they are definitely seeking revenge right now.

Barbara, what have you learned about the kinds of targets Jordan is going after, the locations, specific details? What have you learned?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, the Jordanian government spokesman said, earlier today, that most of the targets would be in eastern Syria. That matches, of course, with what Becky is hearing. Eastern, northern Syria, these are the strongholds of ISIS in Syria.

The question of the targets is actually key. We know, for the last 72 hours, U.S. coalition, Jordanian military officials have been pouring over the intelligence looking to refine the targets, find them, isolate them, see where they are. So, when the war planes went in, they could hit as many targets as possible.

But you know, ISIS is not blind. They know the Jordanians are coming after them. And all indications are ISIS continuing with its strategy on the ground of trying to disburse, move around, make themselves invisible, not move around anymore in large convoys and military vehicles, not show any profile that a war plane can really lock onto.

So, we will have to see how successful the Jordanians were. And it may not just be this round of air strikes for them. There is the open possibility the Jordanians will return to the skies. And, in all cases, it should be said the U.S. flying alongside them providing support, intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, the advanced kind of targeting that U.S. war planes can provide -- Wolf. BLITZER: And, Barbara, they've deployed search and rescue teams on

the ground in northern Iraq in case a plane goes down with a coalition pilot, is that right?

STARR: Well, what they have done -- partly that, you bet. They have actually deployed a number of aircraft into northern Iraq that are capable of loading those rescue teams, those personnel on board very quickly and going to the scene if there were to be a downed pilot, if an airplane goes down through mechanical trouble or being shot down. This just moves that search and rescue capability closer to where the Jordanians are flying -- Wolf.

BLITZER: And this is exactly what the United Arab Emirates has been seeking ever since Jordan lost that F-16 and that pilot. Becky, Barbara, I want both of you to stand by.

I want to bring in our panel of experts to discuss these late breaking developments involving Jordan. Joining us, our CNN Intelligence and Security Analyst Robert Baer. He's a former CIA operative. With me here in Washington, CNN Counterterrorism Analyst Philip Mudd. He also worked for the CIA. He's currently a consultant for the National Intelligence Council and sits on the advisory board of the National Counterterrorism Center.

Guys, thanks very much for joining us. Phil, now that Jordan is, quote, "all in," what does that say to you?

PHILIP MUDD, CNN COUNTERTERRORISM ANALYST: Look, we're talking about whether this is a turning point. I think this is a straw in the turning point. I do not believe, yet, we're at the point where this is the straw that breaks the ISIS camel's back. What we've got to see, in addition to U.S. operations, Jordanian operations, we've got to see in these geographic spaces in eastern Syria, in northwestern, in western Iraq, we've got to see local populations start to say, these air strikes are great but we, also, are going to rise up against ISIS and reclaim our own territory. We need local populations to be with us.

BLITZER: You know, Bob, so far, Jordan and some of these other coalition partners, they've been willing to cooperate with the United States and launch air strikes against ISIS targets in Syria but not against ISIS targets in Iraq. That, potentially, could change but why has that been the case so far?

ROBERT BAER, CNN INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY ANALYST: Well, there's close tribal connections between Jordan and Iraq. They cross that border. Several major tribes. The Jordanians worried about alienating the tribes because, you know, at 50,000-60,000 feet, you don't know -- really know what you're hitting in an air campaign like this.

And the Jordanians are still hoping that they can turn those tribes, in Anbar Province, onto their side. So far, they haven't been -- it hasn't worked. These tribes refuse to show up in Amman. And the ones that do show up, the Iraqi tribes, are passing through Baghdad. So, they have a long way to go before the locals actually turn against the Islamic state. You know, I just don't see it happening right now.

BLITZER: Yes, a lot of people will agree with you. Phil, you're shaking your head. You agree, too, right?

MUDD: I'd agree with that. I'm saying, over time, and I measure time not in American terms but in the terms of ISIS, that's years or decades. That population, in my experience, will turn against ISIS. But for them to do that, they've got to be take -- willing to take a withering offensive from ISIS, beheadings, et cetera. There's going to a blood bath before that happens.

BLITZER: But the argument, as you know, Phil, is that what ISIS did to this Jordanian fighter pilot, 26 years old, a Sunni Muslim, --

MUDD: Yes.

BLITZER: -- and they're Sunni Muslims, won't this anger Sunni Muslims throughout Syria, throughout Jordan, not only Jordan but in Iraq as well, to turn against ISIS, the Sunni Muslims?

MUDD: I think it will but only over time because to get to that point where Sunni Muslims in cities, like in western Iraq, turn against ISIS, they've got to be willing to take vengeance from ISIS itself. ISIS is on the ground. The Jordanians aren't on the ground in a lot of these villages. So, I think, over time, you will see these locals start to say, we don't want ISIS anymore. But, boy, that's going to take a lot of time. I agree with Bob.

BLITZER: And you know, Bob, as much as these -- as these ISIS -- as much as these Sunni Muslims, Iraqi Sunni Muslims or Syrian Sunni Muslims, Jordanian Sunni Muslims, they fear ISIS and they want to crush ISIS. They also fear a lot of these Shiite militias that are backed by Iran.

BAER: Yes. Just as Phil said, they're terrified. They're in a bad position, the Sunnis in Iraq. They don't want the Baghdad government moving in with these so-called Shia death cults. They're terrified, as Phil said, of the Islamic state because they recognize them to be psychopaths. And they're -- what they're hoping, at this point, is that this organization, whatever you want to call it, the Islamic state, simply falls apart under its own weight. That's wishful thinking but I hope they're right

BLITZER: All right, I want both you guys to stand by. We have much more coming up.

This war against ISIS is continuing. It seems to be escalating. We're going to take a look at whether the murder of that Jordanian pilot will lead coalition members to do more right now.

And later, is the U.S. one step closer to sending lethal weapons to Ukraine? We're going live to Kiev. Jim Sciutto is there. He's traveling with secretary of state John Kerry.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BLITZER: Welcome back. We're digging deeper into Jordan's air strikes on ISIS's self-proclaimed capital of Raqqa in Syria and this could mean in the overall fight against ISIS.

Bob Baer and Phil Mudd, they're still with us. You know, Phil Mudd, if you take a look, Jordan, right now, needs to show images, and we're about to get images I'm told, of what these latest air strikes are accomplishing because the people of Jordan clearly seeking revenge right now. The execution of these two convicted terrorists, that's not enough.

MUDD: Look, revenge is only half the story here. We haven't spent much time talking about the other half of the story. We went through the Arab Spring which didn't turn out that well in countries like Libya and Egypt. We have Jordan, a country that's had great instability with a king that sits on a rested population. In addition to revenge, he has got to get off that airplane a day and a half ago and say, we are moving immediately. So, within 36 hours, you get the hangings and you get operations in Syria. Whether or not these operations in Syria are extremely effective, they are great photos that'll show the population that the king is all over this.

BLITZER: And you believe -- maybe you do or don't, Bob Baer, but I want to be precise, you believe that's what's happened over the past two or three days represents a potential turning point in this overall war against ISIS?

BAER: No, Wolf, I don't think it's a turning point. I -- the Jordanians have limited ability to project power into Syria. They're unlikely to send troops in any great numbers. And I think this is a war where you actually do need troops on the ground. I just don't see how it's won. People in Iraq have been looking at the bombardments there and said they're just - they're just not that effective. Yes, it's high number, good body count. But at the end of the day, the Islam State's a guerrilla army. They use guerrilla tactics. They're willing to give up places like Kobani and move on to softer targets. And they've understood. I mean they -- some of these raids they go on, they ride on bicycles simply to avoid overhead coverage. So I think we've got a long way to go. They're going to be around for a while.

BLITZER: As you know, Phil, there's no great desire here in the United States to send thousands of American combat forces either to Iraq or Syria to fight ISIS. They want Iraqis, Free Syrian Army, Kurds, maybe Jordan, maybe Saudi Arabia, maybe the UAE or Kuwait, they want the local forces to be the boots on the ground.

MUDD: That's right. And there is history to support that. Look, people want to say the great American army can go in and solve every problem. If you look at the history of insurgency though, the problem with inserting foreign forces like the United States at the head of the spear is that local forces start to say, oh, the Americans got it, we don't have to worry about this so much. If you want to win an insurgency, you're going to have to take some pain on the front end, and that is ensuring that the local forces take the lead so they don't start to back off and have us fill in for them. BLITZER: Do you understand - and I'll ask you, Bob Baer -- why Turkey

right now is so reluctant to get involved, even indirectly by allowing the United States, for example, to launch air strikes against ISIS targets from Turkish air bases or have search and rescue operations launched from Turkish airbases. Given the fact that Turkey, over the years, has been a close ally. It's a member of NATO. But they seem to want no part of this, at least right now.

BAER: Well, Wolf, they've got a - they have a schizophrenic policy. On one level their member -- they're a member of the European Union and they're an ally to the United States, NATO and the rest of it. They want to be seen as a western power. But on the other hand, the president of Turkey, Erdogan, is in effect a Muslim Brother and supports fundamentalist Muslim groups in Syria. And it's clear he's been letting weapons go to them. You can cross the border very easily. And he would like to see the Muslim - the Islamic forces defeat Bashar al Assad and overthrow him. And, you know, for this alliance to work against the Islamic state, they would have to join it fully and seal that border and starve the Islamic state. And until today they're not doing that.

BLITZER: All right, we're going to have to leave it right there. Bob Baer, Phil Mudd, guys, thanks very, very much.

An important programming note for our viewers. Coming up later here on CNN in "The Situation Room," I'll speak live with Jordan's foreign minister, Nasser Judeh. We'll talk about his country's next steps against ISIS. That's coming up later today in "The Situation Room," 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

Also coming up here this hour, as the U.S. led coalition intensifies air strikes against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, intelligence officials say they're also fighting ISIS cells right here in the United States. We're going to discuss that. Congressman Mike McCaul, there you see him right there, he's standing by. He's my guest when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: The killing of that Jordanian pilot underscores just how barbaric and brutal ISIS is. It's a threat that the U.S. is fighting from the air, but many are wondering whether it would be better to do it from the ground.

Joining us now, Congressman Mike McCaul. He's the Republican chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee.

Mr. Chairman, thanks very much for coming.

REP. MICHAEL MCCAUL (R), TEXAS: Thanks for having me, Wolf.

BLITZER: Can you really destroy ISIS without a significant ground presence of combat troops?

MCCAUL: No. And I think that's a failure of the administration's policy right now. It's a policy of containment rather than a policy to degrade and destroy. And you can't do that with limited air strikes. I think you need air strikes, but you also need a ground force. And that's the remaining question mark is, where is that ground force going to come from.

I personally think that, given what happened with the Jordanian pilot, I hope to see the Sunni Arab nations standing up, along with Turkey, who's really in the best position with a fighting force to deal with this. They - you know, Turkey, they hate Assad and they don't like ISIS either. I think they're in a really unique position to help us out. But as your commentator previously noted, President Erdogan is really the problem here. He's sitting on the Muslim Brotherhood and he doesn't want to upset them.

BLITZER: And Turkey's a NATO ally, so you would think they would be inclined to go - because they're right on the border with Syria, not far away from these ISIS positions. But you've seen no willingness on their part to get involved more directly.

MCCAUL: Precisely. I think the most they've given us is cover from the air to fly over Turkey. I think the administration should be engaging more with Turkey to get them into this fight. I think it's in the region's best interest. We can provide the special operations and strikes. I think they need to provide the ground force.

BLITZER: Because we're hearing the Pentagon saying that they're going to train the Free Syrian Army, send some of these troops to Saudi Arabia or Jordan for training. They're going to try to beef up the Iraqi military. Hopefully they will get tougher. That's wishful thinking a lot of experts suggest.

MCCAUL: Yes. Well, the Iraqi military in Mosul basically dropped their weapons and ran. Free Syrian Army doesn't exist anymore. And this idea of vetting 5,000 people in Saudi black sites over the next year, and maybe 5,000 people, we're talking about 50,000 ISIS fighters and growing by the day. Since the strikes began, there are more foreign fighters pouring into the region than ever before.

BLITZER: Because the Central Command, the U.S. military Cent, they said the last few months they've killed about 6,000 of these ISIS fighters, but you say that many more have actually come in than these 6,000 who have been killed.

MCCAUL: Since the strikes, we've had more join. And, in fact, we talk about foreign fighters, that number has actually gone up from 15,000 to now 20,000 foreign fighters.

BLITZER: Mostly from Europe.

MCCAUL: And 5,000 of those with western passports. We've had Americans go through here. You talk about barbarians at the gate. I want to make sure they stay out of the gate of the United States.

BLITZER: So your estimate now -- you've been hearing 50,000? That's the number of ISIS forces --

MCCAUL: No, 50,000 total fighting.

BLITZER: ISIS in Syria and Iraq?

MCCAUL: Correct. And then out of that, we have -- it's jumped from 15,000 to 20,000 foreign fighters and 5,000 of those have western passports. There are visa waver countries from Europe can come into the United States.

BLITZER: And do you have any idea about Americans?

MCCAUL: Americans, the number, a couple -- hundreds. In the hundreds.

BLITZER: And some of them actually come back. Our Pamela Brown, our justice correspondent, interviewed the head of the FBI's counter terrorism center the other day and he said there was some fear of ISIS cells emerging here in the United States. You're the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee. Is that a legitimate fear?

MCCAUL: Oh, of course. I mean we've had a couple hundred come back. We are monitoring those who have actually come back. Two hundred have gone over to fight. The number I can't specify on air. But we are monitoring these individuals. But you don't know what you don't know, Wolf. And the problem is, our human intelligence isn't very good in Syria on the ground, so we don't know what the real precise number is. So we have the foreign fighter threat coming through Turkey to western Europe and into the United States, but also the home-grown violent extremists who can radicalize over the Internet in their basement.

BLITZER: And so you're more worried, I suspect, about a radicalized so-called lone wolf American doing some damage, going out and killing some people or whatever, than you are a more coordinated al Qaeda or ISIS-based cell.

MCCAUL: I'm worried about both. But I don't think a 9/11 style hijacking could take place given how we've advanced since 9/11. However, a small scale attack like Paris, that could happen anytime, anywhere, anyplace, including the United States. That worries me. But also the radicalization over the Internet. When you look at that propaganda that ISIS puts out, you look at the Jordanian pilot, it looks like a Hollywood movie, you know? It is horrific. And they broadcasted that to Raqqa over these big screen TVs and the crowds applauding and cheering this. That's the kind of stuff that is actually inspiring individuals outside of the region globally. And that's what we're most concerned about.

BLITZER: Mr. Chairman, as usual, thanks very much for coming in.

MCCAUL: Thanks, Wolf.

BLITZER: Good luck.

Mike McCaul is the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee.

We're getting new photos showing the results of the latest coalition air strikes. We're going to share those pictures with you. They are very dramatic. Stand by. We'll get those ready for you.

Also coming up, the secretary of state of the United States, John Kerry, he's in Kiev, Ukraine, meeting with Ukrainian leaders right now. He says the U.S. can no longer close its eyes to Russian tanks, Russian fighters who he says have crossed the border into Ukraine. With casualties mounting, is the U.S. one step closer to sending arms to Ukraine? Stand by. New information coming up.

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