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Obama, Merkel Meet on Ukraine; Donetsk Area Rocked by Explosions; Obama to Decide on Arming Ukraine; U.S. Providing Weapons to Ukraine Could Escalate Situation; Obama Defends Decision Not to Meet with Netanyahu; North Korea Launches "Cut-Edge" Anti-Ship Missile Technology; North Korea Moving Closer to Russia; New Poll Shows Jeb Bush Leading GOP Field

Aired February 09, 2015 - 13:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST: Welcome back to our viewers in the United States and around the world. I'm Wolf Blitzer, reporting from Washington. Let's go to Ukraine right now.

Just a little while ago we heard from president and Angela Merkel. The two talked about Ukraine and the potential of the U.S. arming Ukrainian government troops.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It is true that if, in fact, diplomacy fails, what I've asked my team to do is to look at all options. What other means can we put in place to change Mr. Putin's calculous? And the possibility of lethal weapons is the possibility that's being made. I've not made a decision yet. I've consulted with not just Angela but will be consulting with other allies about this issue. It's not based on the idea that Ukraine could defeat a Russian army that was determined. It is rather to see whether or not there are additional things we can do to help Ukraine bolster its defenses in the face of separatist aggression.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: In Ukraine, there's no lull in the fighting as peace plans are being discussed elsewhere. Today, in the disputed city of Donetsk, it was rocked by a massive exPLOsion of what may have been an arms depot. Pro-Russian forces have been gaining ground on Ukrainian military forces. Meanwhile, the Russian president Vladimir Putin is in Egypt. In an interview, he put the blame on the West for the fighting in Ukraine, saying the prospects of expanding NATO has forced countries to divide. He also denied claims that Russia is providing troops and weapons to pro-Russian forces in Ukraine.

The prospects for peace in Ukraine hang on a planned summit that's scheduled for Wednesday with, the chancellor of Germany, the French President Francois Hollande, the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Let's discuss what's going on. Our chief national security correspondent, Jim Sciutto, is here in Washington with me. Our senior international correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh, is in eastern Ukraine.

(EXPLOSION)

BLITZER: Nick, we're hearing mortar fire behind you. What's going on?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, actually a change in what we've been hearing. Recently, we've been hearing the shelling impact over there. For the first time since I've been here I've heard the shells fly over where we're standing at the moment. They're being shot from a new direction. We know little more than that. But we are hearing from a European diplomat with good knowledge of what's happening on the ground that -- (AUDIO GAP) -- investigating what both sides are doing here. (AUDIO GAP) -- amount of military movement both in Donetsk and the Republicans on the separatist sides. And that may suggest that the separatists side for their part -- (AUDIO GAP)

BLITZER: Nick, I'm going to have you hold on for a second. We're beginning to lose some of you audio. I want to straighten that up and get back to you. We hear the mortar fire behind you. Be careful in the meantime.

Jim Sciutto is here with me in Washington.

The president was blunt. There are many in Washington, Republicans and Democrats, maybe within his own administration, saying it's time for the United States to provide lethal aid to the Ukrainian military. He's saying that may happen down the road. He's thinking about it but no decision has been made.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: There will be some disappointment on the ground in Ukraine from the officials I've spoken with who are urgent in their need for help. Because they feel -- the facts are true. They're losing ground and have been during peace negotiations for months now and they feel without help they'll continue to lose ground and the facts on the ground will become unchangeable facts on the ground.

That said, you have the two principle partners in this, the U.S. and Germany, standing next to each other acknowledging that they may very well disagree on this. And if they do disagree, the fine, the alliance will continue. And that presents the possibility that the president may make the decision. And it is true that there were more people in his administration as well as in his own party who have come around on this as the situation has declined on the ground.

The trouble is, you know, you're still allowing time for a peace process, which has the same partners. In fact, it's in the same city. They're going back to Minsk where they negotiated the last time.

BLITZER: That was back in September.

SCIUTTO: Exactly.

BLITZER: Turned out to not be effective. SCIUTTO: You have the same persons sitting across the table, Vladimir

Putin, and the situation worsening on the ground. So the real question is what's changed now that's going to change the calculus, making Vladimir Putin more like to make an agreement? That's unclear. They're willing to give that space. But people I spoke with on the ground in Kiev, Ukrainian officials, they're extremely skeptical.

BLITZER: And you were there a few days ago.

I want to go back Nick. He's there right now.

Nick, I think we've cleared up your audio. Set the scene once again. We're hearing mortar fire, shelling going on behind you, the pounding. There's no break at all, right?

WALSH: Very little. There are hours when you do get a lull. What we've been hearing sounds like longer-range artillery. They are also times when you hear ground impact, launched from a particular device. It's hard to tell who is firing at who, why or when, but a lull at the time when the impacts come in. You can presume it's the Ukrainian military on the outskirts and then we hear outgoing as well. We heard outgoing fire from the town we were at this morning. Quite remarkable what was down to nine story blocks of flats, to a three-story building, torn right down the middle.

And people for the first time coming out from basements. One couple told me they got out after five days of being in a basement. Took the kids out immediately and then came back for their possessions. Another couple clearing out their home for the last time. No semblance of that town can get back to life in the imminent future. And now we're hearing of continued advances of the separatists from the direction of the town, where the Ukrainian troops hope to make a stand and continue to secure that strategic hub. A very messy situation. Hard to know quite where people are progressing on the ground and where they'll being pushed back to retreat.

But what is absolutely clear is the heavy weapons are being fired by both sides. We've seen and heard that today. And this town, Donetsk, used to have a million people in it but now very few out in the streets. There's also heavy shelling and thick snow, too -- Wolf?

BLITZER: I want you to be very careful over there, Nick. It's a dangerous situation.

Jim Sciutto, the argument that the Europeans make that if the U.S. provides anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, it's only going to escalate the fighting and, in the end, the Ukrainian military is no match for the Russian separatists. They could really destroy the Ukrainian forces and effectively steal all of the weapons that the U.S. might be providing. Why go down that road.

SCIUTTO: No question. You heard the president saying you could send them weapons but no one believes that that's going to beat the Russians. They just want to give the Ukrainians some increased stability to defend themselves. On the flip side, this is one of those situations where there really are no good options. On the flip side, economic sanctions alone have not changed the Russian calculus. And in fact the Ukrainians continue to lose ground with economic sanctions alone. The decision before the president is, yes, there is a risk that this further escalates. On the other hand, without doing this, the front line continues to move further West. And that's something that clearly the president, god knows the Ukrainians, but others want to avoid.

BLITZER: If you're Putin you say, they took over Crimea and that seems like a fait accompli. No one is talking about Crimea anymore.

SCIUTTO: Haven't heard that talked about in a long time.

BLITZER: I know.

So, stand by.

Nick Paton Walsh, I want you to be careful over there.

During the joint news conference here in Washington, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the president of the United States, President Obama, he defended his decision not to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on March 3rd when he's scheduled to come to Washington. The House Speaker John Boehner invited the prime minister to address a joint meeting of Congress in early March.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: We have a practice of not meeting with leaders right before their elections. Two weeks before their elections. As much as I love Angela, if she was two week away from an election, she probably would not have received an invitation to the White House. And I suspect she wouldn't have asked for one.

So you know, this is just -- you know some of this just has to do with how we do business. And I think it's important for us to maintain these protocols because the U.S.-Israeli relationship is not about a particular party. This isn't a relationship founded on affinity between the Labor Party and the Democrat party or the Likud and the Republican Party. This is the U.S.-Israeli relationship. That extends beyond parties and has to do with that unbreakable bond that we feel and our commitment to Israel's security and the share of values that we have.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: President Obama added that while he and the Israeli prime minister do have some differences on serious topics, he insists it has nothing to do with Netanyahu's visit to Washington.

Jim Sciutto, this is an extremely sensitive matter right now. My own sense that the prime minister, at least when you hear Israeli officials talking about it, given the fact he's supposed to address Congress on March 3rd, exactly two weeks before Israeli elections, he's looking for a face-saving way potentially maybe to cancel that visit to Washington if he could do it without losing too much faith only two weeks before a scheduled election. SCIUTTO: It does look that way. Just spoke to an official in the

Israeli prime minister's office, in the words of the official the president has received a number of questions regarding his plans. At the moment, there is no change to his plans. At the moment. That clearly leaves the possibility of changing this. You've heard the criticism coming from inside Israel as well as on this side of the ocean, and clearly the prime minister has been hearing that and calculating the damage to the relationship.

BLITZER: I'm sure he has been.

We're going to have more on this story coming up as well.

Other news we're following, including North Korea firing test missiles. What it calls cutting-edge anti-ship missiles. Some say they are Russian designed. And the timing of the tests is suspect as well. We have new information coming in. Stay with us.

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BLITZER: North Korea showing off some of its new missiles. Take a look at this. You're seeing the launch of what the country is calling cutting-edge anti-ship missile technology.

Brian Todd is here with me, been following the developments.

A military analyst suggesting that there could be Russian design in these missiles? What's going on?

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Wolf. These were test fired on Saturday. A couple of concerning things about this missile. Experts are telling us this is the Russian made KH35E cruise missile or a copy of that missile. North Korea may have reassembled these missiles after secretly buying them from Russia or a third country. That's concerning. One expert says this is a much more capable missile system than any other anti-ship cruise missile that North Korea has displayed in the past. This one has a range of up to 160 miles, effective up to ships weighing 5,000 tons. You saw the pictures there of Kim Jong-Un presiding over this, looking like a commander as the ship strikes its target in the east sea off North Korea.

Also, what's interesting is a weapons expert says they've also displayed a new type of boat firing this missile, much more maneuverable, better electronics than they've shown in the past. They're exhibiting some new weapons capability here. And you know, they also fired five short-range missiles on Sunday. They did test firings on Saturday, test firings on Sunday. Again, North Korea assuming an aggressive stance here.

BLITZER: Their relationship with Russia seems to be improving as their relationship with China seems to be deteriorating. And there's talk that Kim Jong-Un might make his first visit to Russia in the coming months.

This time of this test comes on the eve of the South Korea military test.

TODD: This is not all together unexpected. This is just a few weeks before the U.S. annual South Korea joint exercises. North Korea does this every year. It will test fire missiles, shoot out this rhetoric, this inflammatory war like rhetoric warning the U.S. and South Korea don't conduct these exercises. But there's more tension this year because of everything that's happened over the last couple of months. Just last week North Korea says it doesn't see any need to negotiate with what it called the gangster like United States. It can fight the United States with cyber war and nuclear weapons. All coming on the heels of the Sony attack. Yes it's an annual point of tension with these exercises. But there's a lot more tension to it this year.

BLITZER: All right. I know you'll have a lot more coming up later in "The Situation Room."

TODD: That's right, Wolf.

BLITZER: Brian, thanks very much.

We'll take a quick break. When we come back, presidential politics here in the United States. New poll numbers are out. Who's leading the Republican pack of potential candidates? Stand by.

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BLITZER: In a new poll, the Republican field seems wide open, but Jeb Bush does have a slight lead. Let's take a closer look at the numbers right now. The former Florida governor drew 16 percent support. That would be among likely Republican primary voters. Take a look at this. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul is not far behind at all. He's got 13 percent. And the Wisconsin governor, Scott Walker, he has 12 percent. The New Jersey governor, Chris Christie, he has 10 percent.

Let's get some context on what's going on. Joining us, our chief congressional correspondent, Dana Bash; and our chief political analyst, Gloria Borger, and our senior political correspondent, Brianna Keilar.

All right, Gloria, a year before New Hampshire.

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: Wide open! Anybody's race.

BLITZER: Looks pretty close.

BORGER: Wide open. You have to look at these numbers. Obviously, Jeb Bush has the name recognition here, but the you look at the top four, it's pretty close. I think what you have to consider is that because there is not going to be a big Democratic race, that you're going to have a lot of Independent voters who are going to turn out to vote in the Republican primary, because it's an open primary. That's probably pretty good news for Jeb Bush and Chris Christie. I think Rand Paul has made some inroads, but, you know, right now, it's kind of a toss-up, don't you think? BLITZER: What's happening in New Hampshire, though, it's interesting,

among likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, that's slightly different than maybe -- maybe not so slightly different than likely Republican caucus goers in Iowa.

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Oh, yes, very different. They're sometimes two different universes when it comes to the kind of voters that these candidates have to appeal to. The fact that Jeb Bush is ahead, it think you're exactly right, is name I.D. He actually hasn't been there in years. And as everybody here knows, New Hampshire is the kind of place that likes to touch, feel, smell, talk to the candidates before they actually say that they're going to support them. But what Bush is doing actually tomorrow is putting out on his website the 275,000 e-mails he wants to make available from his time as governor and the first chapter of his eBook. The reason why it mentioned that is the narrative that his folks want to push forward on that is that he was an incredibly accessible governor. That he e- mailed people about a raccoon in their tree at 11:00 at night. That's the kind of guy that they think will play well.

BLITZER: You know, Brianna, the other poll involves the Democrats and Hillary Clinton. And she is doing remarkably well, even though she hasn't formally announced, everybody knows she's going to run. Take a look at this. She dominates with 56 percent right now, among likely Republican candidates. So, she's got a relatively easier path, it would say.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right. She's head and tails above other Democrats, and Elizabeth Warren is a distant second. There's really maybe two things that can change the math here. One would be Elizabeth Warren getting into the race.

BORGER: She won't.

KEILAR: She won't. That's sort of our understanding. We would be very surprised if they were to do that. It seems the Clinton folks are pretty confident she won't. But the other thing that won't change this math is Hillary Clinton getting in the race. We expect the one she does get in, things she's seen through more of a political lens, that's not going to be great for her, but in the absence of any really strong contenders around here, it looks like all things the same.

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: She doing well in New Hampshire? Because it's right next door to her home state of Massachusetts. And a lot of people in New Hampshire, they watch those Boston TV stations, they read "The Boston Globe," for example, the "Boston Herald".

KEILAR: Yeah.

BLITZER: That's probably why she's doing better than Biden or some of these other potential Democratic candidates.

KEILAR: And the other -- and that goes to name I.D. But when you look at this poll and you're talking about favorability, it appears that there are one in four people who don't really know much about Elizabeth Warren --

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: In New Hampshire.

KEILAR: In New Hampshire, yeah. So whereas everyone, obviously, knows who Hillary Clinton is, but keep in mind, in sort of this time, 2007, Hillary Clinton was polled in New Hampshire 15 points up above Barack Obama, and yet she won. It was a squeaker. It was a stunner. The polls going into the New Hampshire primary had her --

(CROSSTALK)

BORGER: She won barely.

This time, Hillary will be herself, right?

(LAUGHTER)

Because she's going to be running against herself.

(CROSSTALK)

BORGER: And can it just say one thing to Dana's point about the sort of dissemination of 275,000 e-mails. There's a flip side to this. One is, Jeb Bush, Jeb Bush is a micromanager. OK, if he's -- remember, we had Jimmy Carter, who was assigning the tennis courts to people at the White House. Do you want to elect a micromanager, so it could work against him? But on the other -- on the flip side of that, is that he hands down the gauntlet to Hillary Clinton, and to every other Republican saying, OK, I'm for transparency, folks. I've shown you my stuff, show me yours, right?

BASH: And the last thing I want to say about the poll on the Republican side is Rand Paul. New Hampshire voters loved his father. They like his -- it mean, live free or die. He is the ultimate Libertarian. They like his flavor of politicians. So it's not surprising that he's doing well. And I would expect him to continue to do very well in New Hampshire.

BLITZER: And he's obviously very interested in running. All these guys, and some of the gals, too, are pretty interested in running for president of the United States.

People say it's a long, long time. It's not that long, this summer, the Republican debates, and maybe even some Democratic presidential debates will be taking place. So people have to start getting ready for all of that.

Guys, much more coming up, as we cover politics here in the United States.

That's it for me, thanks very much for watching. I'll be back 5:00 p.m. eastern in "THE SITUATION ROOM."

For our international viewers, "AMANPOUR" is coming up next. For our viewers in North America, "NEWSROOM" with Brooke Baldwin will

start right after the quick break.

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