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Hala Gorani Tonight
"Strong And Steady" Turnout In New Hampshire; Candidates Hit The Trail To Win Over Voters; Ten Killed In Head-On Train Crash In Germany; Rubio Blasted For Debate Performance; CNN Reports From Inside War-Torn Aleppo; Reports: Russia Offers "Concrete Plan" To End Crisis; Olympic Construction And Zika Threaten Rio Community; Train Collision in Bavaria; South African President Awaits Judge's Decision. Aired 3-4p ET
Aired February 09, 2016 - 15:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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[15:00:44] HALA GORANI, CNN HOST: Hello, everyone. I'm Hala Gorani. We are live at CNN London. Thanks for being with us this hour. It's a busy
day. This is the WORLD RIGHT NOW.
Well, after dozens of campaign events and hundreds of photo ops, it comes down to this, the first primary in the race for the White House is
happening right now in New Hampshire. Voters in the granite state are streaming into polling stations.
Of course, their aim is to choose their nominee for president. A local official says turnout is, quote, "Strong and steady." These are
preliminary infractions. Of course, the numbers will come much later.
Today's results are expected to narrow the Republican field quite considerably. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is expected to best
Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. That's what all the polls are saying.
She is out on the campaign trail, anyway. She is right to trying to win over undecided voters before they enter the ballot box, braving the snow.
The Republican candidate Marco Rubio are pushing for those last-minute voters as well. Here's some of the latest images coming to us From New
Hampshire.
Independent voters are an important factor in New Hampshire. Four in ten, this is a significant number of voters in New Hampshire are independent.
So they can wait until Election Day to make up their minds.
MJ Lee joins me now live from Manchester, New Hampshire with more. MJ, first, we are seen all over the world and people follow this election very
keenly.
They may not be familiar with the mechanics of what a primary is versus a caucus, for instance. Talk us through what to expect today.
MJ LEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, well, I think you hit it right on the nail's head. The independent voters in New Hampshire are so, so important
if you want a victory here. As you mentioned, this is a large block of voters here who may be undecided and may not decide until later tonight
when they actually head to their polling stations.
For someone like Donald Trump, this has been a large part of the success we saw in Iowa last week. He actually did very well among independents there
and for someone like Bernie Sanders as well.
They're trying to rally the voters who are a little dissatisfied with the Washington establishment and people who don't feel beholden to either the
Republican Party or the Democratic Party to walk you through a little bit on what we're expecting on both sides of the aisle.
On the Republican side, the polls have shown that Donald Trump does have a substantial lead here. If he doesn't finish in first place here tonight,
that would be quite the surprise.
The thing that we're watching very closely is, who can come in, in a strong second and third place here in New Hampshire for the John Kasich, the Jeb
Bushes of the world who have been campaigning here very hard over the last couple of months.
This is really, really critical and a moment for them to show that they can really break out of that establishment lane and try to compete against Ted
Cruz or Donald Trump when they head into South Carolina just a week from today or rather ten days from today getting my days mixed up here.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has been trying to manage her expectation, because there, too, Bernie Sanders has had a substantial lead
in the recent polls. Hillary Clinton, of course, won Iowa, but barely won there by razor thin margins.
So as she looks ahead to the rest of February and to the rest of the spring, she wants to make sure that if she loses here tonight and comes in
second place that gap is as close as possible.
And that she doesn't end having a 20-point second place finish, but you know, can come in as close as possible to Bernie Sanders, maybe a five,
ten-point gap would be a good look for her tonight.
GORANI: All right. M.J. Lee live in New Hampshire. Thanks, very much. Therefore, that update on what to expect. Polls have been opened for a few
hours. Our special coverage begins in a few hours' time as well.
That is the bird's eye view of what to expect today, but where the race may lack some suspense on the Democratic side, let's be honest.
[15:05:05]The primary in New Hampshire will certainly narrow things down quite substantially for the Republicans. Here's Sara Murray with that
story.
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SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER (voice-over): Hours ahead of the first votes, name calling in the GOP reached a fever pitch.
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: She said he's a (inaudible). That's terrible.
MURRAY: Donald Trump repeated a voter's vulgar jab at Ted Cruz Monday night and the frontrunner was relentless in attacking Jeb Bush throughout
the day.
TRUMP: We have to get rid of the Bushes of the world. Jeb is a lightweight. Jeb is having some kind of a breakdown I think. Look, he's
an embarrassment to his family.
MURRAY: Bush continuing the battle, trading insult for insult after tweeting at Trump, "You aren't just a loser, you are a liar and a whiner."
JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He is a whiner. I'm a joyful warrior. Imagine a guy like Donald Trump, for example, being president of
the United States during difficult times.
MURRAY: Now in the final hours, candidates are vying to win over legions of undecided New Hampshire voters. Marco Rubio trying to bounce back after
a debate gap, repeating the same phrase four times Saturday night, something Chris Christie is capitalizing on.
GOVERNOR CHRIS CHRISTIE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You sit across the table from Vladmir Putin, you don't want to repeat the same thing four or
five times over again.
MURRAY: But awkwardly, Rubio repeated himself yet again Monday night during a stump speech.
MARCO RUBIO (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We know how hard it is to instill our values in our kids, instead of the values that try to run down our
throats. It has become harder than ever to instill in your children the values they teach in our homes and in our church instead of the values that
they try to ram down our throats.
MURRAY: This as Trump downplayed his wide lead in the final polls before today's primary.
TRUMP: I hear we have a lead. It doesn't matter to me. It doesn't matter to me. Who the (inaudible) knows what is the lead is.
MURRAY: After admitting his ground game fell behind in Iowa, his campaign has been playing catch-up. On the snowy eve of the primary, Trump made a
final push in his unconventional style.
TRUMP: If you are going to drive like a maniac, do it tomorrow after you vote and I promise I will come and visit you in the hospital, I promise.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: And there you have it. Sarah Murray reporting on the Republican field. We'll get back to New Hampshire shortly. We will speak with McKay
Coppins, a senior political reporter for "BuzzFeed."
He's written a very interesting piece on Marco Rubio and can provide announces on what the Republicans are up to, what they need to do to get
ahead as well as, of course, on the Democrats because it's not just New Hampshire. It's South Carolina next.
And it's where Hillary as well needs to focus on beyond the state where she is not polling extremely well and that is New Hampshire. All right, McKay
Coppins is getting ready. We'll get back to him in a moment.
But I wanted to bring you this very important story as well and a real tragedy in Southern Germany. A train crash killed at least ten people, two
passenger trains collided head-on at a bend on a single track line.
It was a regional rail liner late Tuesday morning. Dozens of people were hurt. Many critical injuries among them. Now authorities are
investigating how both trains were on this same track at all. Clearly, a very major mistake there. Our Atika Shubert has more.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ATIKA SHUBERT, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The mangled wreckage of the commuter trains both completely derailed in the
head-on collision. It happened just before 7:00 a.m. during rush hour. The trains were traveling at a top speed of 120 kilometers an hour.
Transport officials say drivers on both trains were unable to see the other as they traveled around a bend on a single track line.
ALEXANDER DOBRINDT, GERMAN TRANSPORT MINISTER: It's like shaking the spirit. It is shocking that the two trains became wedged. One of the
trains drilled into the other one. The cab of the second train was totally torn apart.
SHUBERT: Police arrived within 3 minutes of getting the emergency call. The wooded mountainous area on the Austrian-German border was difficult to
reach. More than a dozen helicopters were needed to airlift survivors out.
This was the first accident, for private train operator, Meridia. Investigators will comb through the data recorders from the train looking
at two lines of inquiry, whether there was an issue on board the train, human error or technical malfunction or with the state-run rail
infrastructure, a possible signal failure.
UNIDENTIFIED CALLER: Usually the system that automatically stops the train the signal, that's why we don't know what happened. We assume those
signals are green, but we don't know yet. On our trains, there have been two train drivers each.
We had a train driver process the train. So usually not two people miss a red light and then this is that automatic braking system doesn't work. So
we really don't know exactly yet what has happened.
[15:10:01]SHUBERT: This is the worst train accident in Germany in many years. The trains, however, were not as full as they normally would be due
to a school holiday and the annual carnival celebration. Atika Shubert, CNN, Berlin.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: A lot more ahead as I mentioned, we'll dig deeper in the New Hampshire race with "Buzzfeed," senior political reporter.
Also coming up tonight -- well, as the battle rages between government and rebel forces and the bombardments continue unabated, we will have an
exclusive report from inside the Syrian city of Aleppo.
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GORANI: All right. As promised, let's talk a little more about the Republican race and the race on the Democratic side in New Hampshire side.
I'm joined from Manchester by McKay Coppins. He is a senior political writer for "Buzzfeed."
He wrote the book "The Wilderness, Deep Inside the Republican Party's Combative Contentious Chaotic Quest To Take Back The White House." McKay,
thanks for being with us.
MCKAY COPPINS, SENIOR POLITICAL WRITER, "BUZZFEED": Thanks for having me.
GORANI: Trump clearly leading, but the polls were inaccurate for Iowa. But that being said, you still think Trump has it pretty much locked up?
COPPINS: I don't think we can say anyone has it locked up, although, in this case, Trump's lead is significant larger than it was heading into
Iowa. There is also the issue that the polls in Iowa are notoriously difficult to conduct because it's a caucus system.
It's very different. So you know, look, the polls show Trump with, in some cases, 15-point leads over all the rest of the candidates here. Even more.
That would suggest that he has a pretty good shot at winning this. At this point it's kind of a battle for second place. That's where you see most of
the candidates and the media, for that matter, focusing their attention.
GORANI: We're showing our viewers there 31 percent in the latest New Hampshire primary poll, Marco Rubio at 17, Ted Cruz at 14. Marco Rubio,
you wrote an interesting piece, McKay, titled the anxiety of being Marco Rubio basically describing a pretty nervous, anxious person.
Is this affecting his chances? He was criticized for sort of robotically repeating the same formulaic lines during the debate and then also a few
days later in New Hampshire. Is this hurting him?
COPPINS: You know, it's interesting. A lot of people when they saw that kind of moment of Rubio sort of panicking and repeating the same line over
and over at the debate. A lot of people were surprised because the public image that he puts forth is one of being very cool headed and calm and
quick on his feet and to a certain extent, that's true.
But the people I talked to, who have known him over the years worked with him, friends of his, say that he's always had this sort of jittery
restlessness and anxiousness that's been a part of his personality and so those people were not necessarily surprised.
[15:15:05]The bigger question I think voters need to decide as they go into the primary today and in the future primaries is to what extent is that
strain of his personality going to affect the way that he governs the country, if he becomes president or for that matter just in a general
election when he's going up against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
Will he panic in the same way? I think that's what a lot of people are kind of trying to weigh.
GORANI: Yes, and New Hampshire is interesting because 40 percent of New Hampshire voters are, describe themselves as independents. So that means
they can change their party affiliation until the very last day.
Who does that usually benefit? What kind of candidate could benefit from that particular New Hampshire voter quality, voter -- the equality of the
voter pool there?
COPPINS: Right, well, it means two things, one is that a moderate candidate, a moderate Republican can theoretically kind of lure Democrats
and centrists over to their campaign. So that's why you see lot of candidates like Ohio Governor John Kasich to a certain extent Florida
Governor Jeb Bush, you know, making the pitch to moderates.
But the other swath of these independents is just kind of anti- establishment types who like to see an outsider candidate. That's why Trump is doing so well here. People thought that Trump would actually
struggle in New Hampshire to a certain extent because his tone at least is not moderate at all.
Just the other night we heard him yell out a profanity in reference to Jeb Bush at a rally. Here in New Hampshire, there are a lot of people like to
see the candidates shaking up the rules, breaking the rules, and that's what Trump is doing.
GORANI: A quick word on the Democrats, by the way, I'm not sure what CNN's policy is on the word that he repeated, that a member of his audience
yelled at him, I'm not going to take any risks, McKay, and actually recommend that people -- anyway.
COPPINS: I'm with you.
GORANI: But anyway, so let's talk about Hillary-Sanders, this looks like a pretty clear cut for New Hampshire. Let's project ourselves forward,
Hillary Clinton is really looking at South Carolina, Nevada, and other states. This is -- I imagine her eyes also on the future here, right?
COPPINS: Right. Well, I mean, look, for months, actually, the Hillary Clinton campaign has been telling reporters that South Carolina was their
firewall. That even if they lost Iowa, even if they lost New Hampshire, they would get down to South Carolina where there are a lot of more kind of
moderate Democrats and a lot of African-American Democrats.
Both of whom are constituencies that Hillary Clinton does much better with and that will be the state they win. Now the problem with that spin is
that she now really has to win South Carolina and probably win it convincingly to shut down the narrative of the Bernie Sander's surge.
If she doesn't or if it's a close fight, then I think will you see a lot of people in the Democratic establishment panicking because, you know, this
Vermont Democratic socialist really does seem like he'll have a shot at the nomination.
GORANI: All right. McKay Coppins, senior political reporter at "Buzzfeed," thanks very much for joining us from Manchester in New
Hampshire. Be sure to tune in to our special coverage of the New Hampshire presidential primary. It starts in over two hours, 10:00 p.m. in London,
11 p.m. Central European Time, only on CNN.
A lot more on the primary a little bit later in the program. Perhaps maybe even a candidate who is not running yet, who might throw hit hat in the
ring by the name of Michael Bloomberg. We'll look at that question as well.
All right, now to the Middle East, government and rebel forces are locked in what could be a defining battle in Syria, five years civil war. They
are fighting over the northern city of Aleppo, one of Syria's largest city and a key rebel strong hold.
The bombardment of rebel position has been fierce. Assad forces are tightening their grip on the eastern half of the city. They're cutting off
key supply lines. Now, this may be a civil war, but in the middle of all of this are, once again, civilians, the United Nations says it hears
hundreds of thousands of people will be cut off.
That's what these government troops intend to encircle the city. Thousands of people are fleeing toward Turkish border and you are seeing them there.
Our own Frederik Pleitgen is inside the city of Aleppo, in an area controlled by the Syrian government and sent us this exclusive report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: We are right in the heart of the Aleppo. This is the Gemma Lea area. It's actually fairly
closest to the front line, but it's also one of the main places held by the Syrian government.
Now, as you can see in this area, there are a lot of products that are actually available. Food, also a lot of other products as well. However,
the people here it is very difficult for them.
There is almost no electricity. Most of it comes from generators and of course, because we are so close to the front line, there is also shelling
here. It is quite dangerous for the folks who live here.
[15:20:02](voice-over): I believe he already endured 80 percent of the hardship this man says and hope the remaining 20 percent will end soon.
The situation is very tough right now, he adds, but we are steadfast.
We believe the power will be on the correct side and this man says, we have had very tough times, but thanks to the victory of the army, we have
survived these hard times. Aleppo is also the key battlegrounds in Syrian civil war.
(on camera): The Syrian government under President Bashar al-Assad has started a brutal offensive in this part of the country, also, of course,
backed by Russian air power and pro-Iranian militia as well.
And they believe that if they're able to deal a crushing blow to the rebels in this part of Syria, that they could decide the Syrian civil war for
themselves.
Of course, that still is unclear. They don't know how solid their gains are at this point or whether or not the rebels might fight along a
counterattack.
But at this point in time, Aleppo is certainly one of the toughest battlegrounds in the civil war that's been going on for about five years.
Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Aleppo.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: So what's Russia's role in all this? What's its strategy? Russian bombing is bolstering government forces in the fight for Aleppo.
There are reports that Russia has sent the U.S. a new concrete proposal for resolving the conflict in Syria. Many people are skeptical.
Let's bring in Matthew Chance who is in Moscow. What is Vladimir Putin up to here in Syria? What's the strategy? Because by all accounts, the
bombardment of rebel-held areas in Aleppo is at its most intense in years.
MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, yes, he's clearly in it to win it as they say. He has made pretty clear I think
Vladimir Putin of what he intends to do, which is to prevent Bashar Al- Assad from falling.
He sees President Assad as being a guarantor of Russian interests in the region and a bull work against Islamist violence. He said this publicly
and now Vladimir Putin has been putting his money where his mouth is.
Backing the Syrian army and their Iranian allies with intensive air power that is having a real impact on the ground. We are seeing a situation
where just six months ago, Bashar Al-Assad was facing probable defeat, losing territory, rather, to the various array of rebel groups, almost on a
daily basis.
Now, the Syrian army has actually surrounded the city of Aleppo, which with all the wars you know was the biggest city in the region, the biggest city
in Syria. So if it is captured as now it looks likely, that will be a major boost to the Assad government and, of course, a major blow to the
rebels at the same time.
GORANI: Yes, what are these reports about Russia having sent the U.S. some sort of concrete proposal? What do we know about that?
CHANCE: Well, we don't have much detail, but this comes from an interview that the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gave to a newspaper earlier
on today published saying that, look, there are elements of a concrete proposal that we passed onto the United States.
The United States are apparently, according to Sergei Lavrov, considering those proposals. But again, not of the details of that plan has been made
public. But I have been speaking to U.S. officials here in Moscow over the course of the past day, in fact.
And you get a sense that they're very skeptical about anything that the Russian government has to say when it comes to peace deals at the moment.
You know, Russia is in a very strong position. It's on the offensive.
It's making gains with the Syrian army and the Iranians and they're not really in the mood, it seems, to sue for peace at this stage.
GORANI: Right. Well, we know that the Russian bombings pretty much torpedoed the last round of talks. So we'll see what happens and whether
or not some sort of proposal is brought to the table at what the U.N. hopes will be the revival of these talks at the end of February. Matthew Chance,
thanks very much for joining us from Moscow.
Coming up, CNN meets families living right by Rio de Janeiro's Olympic Park who now has the threat of the Zika virus to contend with. Stay with us.
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[15:25:40]
GORANI: Well, with the Olympics just six months away, Kenya is now raising the possibility of pulling out of the Olympics because of fears about the
Zika virus. It isn't just the athletes that can be affected.
Our Nick Paton Walsh visited a community park, I should say, a community inside the Olympic Park who are refusing to budge and now have a new threat
to deal with.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Pedro is driving us to his home, inside Brazil's nearly completed Olympic
Park. The developer, someone for whom the making of this Olympic dream means they will lose their own dream, their home.
He still lives inside the Olympic Park, refusing to move out of the way of the bulldozers, refusing to take the government's buyout.
There are forms of pressure, he says the most common is to cut the water. While water is here, it's stagnant and that could mean Zika.
(on camera): This was once a lakeside paradise, but now the stagnant water brings with it the risk of mosquitos, the construction site has taken away
so much, the greenery they used to know and now the reluctant new neighbor of the Olympic Park. You are not worried about Zika?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, I don't have a fear. I don't have a fear of mosquitos. I have a fear of my mayor.
WALSH (voice-over): He means the city mayor, whose office didn't return our calls. Just outside the park's fence, Luis heads one of 50 of what was
once 500 families living here.
This is our little corner, he says, a paradise for us. Yes, they have been offered new homes, but won't leave their corner of Brazil. He shows us
what demolition means more still water, for Zika carrying mosquitos to breed.
I called up Rio during Carnival, they're partying, but they're not leaving home. Worrying that if they leave, they'll come back to find their homes
bulldozed.
In the rubble, noise and Zika threats, Rafaela gave birth seven days ago. Here, a (inaudible) pregnant spells panic. More fights broke down, she
says. I and my children all got fever. So we went see the doctor, but he told us it was from the bad water we drunk and not Zika.
Still, so much medical uncertainty meant only little Sophia's birth let them feel totally safe. I was happy, she says, what matter isn't when
their daughter is born healthy?
The idyllic waters where Brazil's Olympic dream, it's a health nightmare and its most disregarded growth and struggle in spite of each other. Nick
Paton Walsh, CNN, Rio de Janeiro.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: Coming up, she is a strong female politician who is apparently failing to connect with certain female voters. We will hear directly from
those who say they do not want Hillary for president.
And a bird's eye view of the race with our senior political analyst, David Gergen, who is ahead by how much? And will the polls prove accurate this
time around? Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[15:31:22]
GORANI: Welcome back a. Look at our top stories. The candidates have crisis-crossed New Hampshire working to win every last vote they can.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: With a high number of undecided voters. The two front runners, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are far from shoe ins, although Bernie
Sanders perhaps more so than Donald Trump. Special coverage begins on CNN in less than two hours.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Almost among our top stories and in Germany authorities are working to identify the victims of a deadly head-on collision between two trains in
Bavaria.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: At least 10 people were killed, 17 others were critically injured. This trains collided at a bend and they were on a single track rail line.
The crash is now under investigation.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Lunar New Year's celebrations in Hong Kong were interrupted early Tuesday when riot police clashed with protesters.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: This came as officers tried to crack down on illegal street vendors in Hong Kong. Protesters threw bricks and bottles as police responded with
pepper spray and reportedly even fired two warning shots. Kind of a bit of chaos there. At least 54 people arrested. 90 officers injured.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Also among other stories we are following, South Africa's top court will decide if President Jacob Zuma must repay $15 million in state money.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Zuma has said the money was needed to pay for his home and he's offered to pay some of it back. But these protesters say it's another show
of corruption. Some upgrades to the home include a swimming pool and amphitheater.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(MUSIC PLAYING)
GORANI: Back to New Hampshire, voters still have several more hours to cast ballots. Let's take you to one of the busy polling stations. Brian Todd is
live for us in Hudson, New Hampshire. Brian, tell us what's going on around you and describe a little bit the process for our international viewers who
may not be familiar with how a primary works.
BRIAN TODD, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hala, It's a very dynamic day in the Hudson Community Center in Hudson, New Hampshire. The lines have
thinned out a little bit in the last few minutes, but I can tell you over the last few hours, this has been packed, lines out the door, cars down the
block all day long. They've got about four-and-a-half hours until the polls close. Here's how it works, It's a little different from Iowa where they
gather in caucus rooms and they talk about the candidates. Some try to persuade others to go to their side and maybe some representatives of
candidates are there to try to talk you into voting for their candidate.
Here, it's more of a straight process. You come in here. You check in at one of these tables. You say whether you are a Republican, a Democrat. They
give you a pink ballot for the Republicans, a blue for the Democrats. You go into one of those booths there. We timed this out. It takes the average
voter about 35 seconds to vote. And then they come out and they put their vote in a tabulation machine. They have one for the Republican, and one for
the Democrats over there.
At the end of the evening there is a big ballot that comes out, a tabulation sheet that comes out and they read who won the vote in each
precinct.
Now what's critical in this precinct and everywhere else in New Hampshire Hala, are undeclared voters him people who don't have a party affiliation
or don't want to declare one for particular election or declare a permanent one I should say. You can still come in here, when you check in at the
table here, you tell them, I'm undeclared. And they'll say well which way do you want to go? Republican or Democrat? You tell them. Then they give
you the right ballot, you go vote, and then you come over here if you want to re-register as an undeclared voter, you do it at that table.
So you can come in undeclared, not have an affiliation, vote one way or another and then re-register yourself as undeclared over there. That's what
makes the kind of free flow of this election in New Hampshire so dynamic.
[15:35:06]
TODD: Here's another thing Hala, it's very interesting about here in New Hampshire, you, too, can run for President in the state of New Hampshire.
This is a simple ballot. Here are the Republican candidates for President, there are 30 of them. You can pay $1,000 to the Secretary of State of the
State of New Hampshire and run for President in New Hampshire. Democratic side, 28. Hillary Clinton's way down here, Bernie Sanders way up here. So
they're going to read how many votes all these folks go and you're not going to hear about Bernie Sanders until about the tenth one in. If he
wins, you'll hear it then Hala.
GORANI: OK. Brian Todd, thanks very much at a polling station in New Hampshire. We will catch up with Brian, a little bit later and of course
don't forget our special coverage.
Now a woman running for President who can't rally the support of all women. What is that about what's going on? Is it a bit stranger than fiction for
Hillary Clinton, especially in today's battleground states.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: A CNN-WMUR poll of young female voters puts Bernie Sanders way out in front in New Hampshire with these young female voters. Clinton has won
over only 9% of the 18 to 34-year-old women.
Our Gary Tuckman spoke to some of these voters behind these numbers. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GARY TUCKMAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: A college gymnasium with many young women, self-described progressive democrats. People Hillary
Clinton wants and needs for her presidential bid. But these female milennials aren't here for Hillary Clinton. They're here for Bernie
Sanders.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I would like to see a woman in the White House, Hillary Clinton, no.
TUCKMAN: Entrance polls taken at the Iowa caucuses show democratic women under the age of 30 favor Bernie Sanders by an overwhelming margin.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A lot of people what Bernie Sanders is thinking about is for college kids, helping them out once they graduate.
BERNIE SANDERS, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What we're talking about is free tuition at public colleges and universities.
TUCKMAN: Free tuition proposal resonates for many young women who are choosing Sanders over Clinton. But those here have other reasons, too.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Just because somebody's a woman doesn't necessarily mean that they're right for the job. I want to make sure that they have the
right qualifications and the right standards and they have right morals.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't really trust in what she has to say. It's like I don't really believe in her.
TUCKMAN: At this rally, at New Hampshire's Daniel Webster's college and a later rally at a Manchester theater, there are other reasons young women
who very much want to see a woman President say they are willing to wait for that.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: At the end of the day, you have to vote for your interests and right now, Bernie just fits my interests better than Hillary
Clinton does.
TUCKMAN: Susan Elsass is over 30 years old, the Dean of Students at the college and supporting Hillary Clinton.
SUSAN ELSASS, DEAN OF STUDENTS, DANIEL WEBSTER COLLEGE: It's just time.
TUCKMAN: So what do you say to the younger people who say, no, it's not her time?
ELSASS: Yes, that's confusing to me. I'm excited that they're involved in the process, but it's very confusing to me and I don't understand what
those issues are and how Hillary hasn't been able to make that case to those women.
TUCKMAN: But some of the young women here say she has made her case and it's probably not enough.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I would love to see a woman in the White House. I don't know if Hillary Clinton is that candidate. I don't know if she is
that person to break that barrier because of the different strings that come attached with Hillary.
TUCKMAN: The United States turns 240-years-old this July 4th. After two centuries and four decades of independence, not only has there never been a
female U.S. President, there has never been a female democratic or presidential nominee. History will one day be made. But it's clear, there
are many female Democrats who are very wild for the party but prefer it not be this year.
Gary Tuckman, CNN, Nashua, New Hampshire.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Very interesting. Now, whatever happens from this point on in the primary season, it could be up ended completely by the man you see here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Michael Bloomberg. There is renewed talk of the former New York Mayor joining the race for the White House. In an interview with the
Financial Times, Bloomberg admits he is "looking at all options" when it comes to November's general election a.
Former Democrat, Michael Bloomberg won two mayoral elections as a Republican but served his last term in New York City as an independent. So
he has been literally all over the political map.
Focusing on today's race again while we wait for the voting process to wrap up, let's get some incite from CNN senior political analyst, David Gergen.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Good to see you David. Let me first get your thoughts on potentially a Bloomberg kind of last minute 11th hour entry into the race.
Do you think it's going to happen?
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I think it might happen. First of all, Mike Bloomberg is horrified by the quality of the campaign he's
seen right now. He said publicly the discourse is just - is just isn't Presidential, it's not up to the challenges we face.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GERGEN: And he personally has been itching for a long time to be President and clearly has it. I mean he's a he is an executive by nature. He loves
being an executive and by my light was a terrific Mayor of New York.
[15:40:04]
GERGEN: But he also has to be sort of the realist. He's a pragmatist (inaudible) as well and he has to figure out, is there a path to victory?
And I think that path -- he thinks that path is opened if Bernie Sanders unexpectedly becomes a Democratic nominee and then someone like Donald
Trump a Republican nominee. Then he has a much clear path.
If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, as is much more likely, then it's a lot tougher for him to get there. So he'll take -- he'll take polls. Let me
just say one thing that I saw.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GERGEN: He in 2008 investigated seriously whether he might want to get in or not. And he took polls. And what he determined was he could win a
plurality of votes in that year Bill Clinton was running. He could win a plurality of votes but he couldn't win a majority of votes, and he wouldn't
-- wouldn't win enough states to win in the electoral college. And if nobody wins the electoral college, under the United States constitution the
process then goes into the House of Representatives and the House determines who is the President.
Now, there are only Democrats and only Republicans in the house, so that Bloomberg saw I've got no chance. So I'm going to spend $500 million for
just you - for tilting at windmills.
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GERGEN: This time around he's thinking about a billion dollars, but he's once again got to ask the question, do I really have a path to victory?
GORANI: And he has - there's a deadline here, I mean you can't decide any - when -- how long does he have before he has to make a firm decision?
GERGEN: It's likely he has to make a decision by March. And the deadline here, there are no arbitrary deadlines. But it's how you get access to be
on the ballot in each state. And that's a hard process for an independent candidate to do. It's a lot of paperwork. It's a lot of delays. And you
really do need to get started by spring. So this is -- New Hampshire may tell us a lot. If Bernie Sanders (inaudible) Hillary Clinton tonight then
he may get a lot more interest. On the other hand, if she pulls within ten points and the Clintons have always been comeback candidates in New
Hampshire. If she comes within 10 points I think the Bloomberg chatter will die away so.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: And the polls haven't wrong, haven't just been wrong David in the United States in all the elections and the referendums I've covered, all
over the world in the last two or three years, polls have been wrong. The U.K. General Election. The Scottish referendum. Iowa didn't give us a good
sense of what was going to happen. That being said, let's talk about Trump. He's firmly in the lead. I mean are we looking potentially here at
the next Republican nominee?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: What could take him down at this point?
GERGEN: Well, he has to win tonight and I think if he wins by a convincing margin by ten points or more that would be a major victory for him. In one
of the people who are bunched up behind him now were to pop up, let's say John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, and were to do much better and people
are keeping an eye on Kasich. If he were to do much better than expected and say poll within 7 pints, that would hurt Trump. He wouldn't look like
such a strong winner.
But he -- I think if he wins here convincingly tonight, Donald Trump doesn't fully restore the aura that he had before Iowa where he lost, but
he does become a much stronger player in the process.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GERGEN: And for a lot of Republican establishment figures, the nightmare would be Trump winning convincingly and then everybody else is chasing him
wind up within one or two points of each other, in other words a train wreck of four or five candidates below him. And then that will help Trump.
If there is no clear alternative to Trump coming out of New Hampshire, that will strengthen him.
GORANI: OK. The last question I want to ask you about Hillary Clinton here. Of course, there is the hanging over her campaign the issue of the e-
mail server, there's this ongoing investigation into it. And I spoke to Carl Bernstein just about a week ago and I said to him -- I asked him about
Hillary. He said you know what, it's not said enough she is an extremely flawed candidate.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: I mean in other words, this slam dunk this idea that she's a slam dunk nominee, she has a lot of, you know, vulnerabilities.
GERGEN: She does.
GORANI: Do you agree? Yes, you agree with that. That could take her down is what I'm asking?
GERGEN: I think - I think -- there are a lot of reasons to believe she would win this election, the general election convincingly. She would cross
the opposition but if you really look at Hillary the candidate as opposed to the U.S. demographics and trends and that sort of thing, she's not a
stronger candidate as she might be. And I think it's fascinating, that piece you just had on what about the millennial - young millennial women,
absolutely fascinating. Women below the age of 30 in this country, everybody assumed they'd be for Hillary, that they'd want a woman in the
White House. They'd be enthusiastic for her. And the way they flocked to Bernie Sanders instead raises really questions about a generational divide
that I think you see in Europe as well where a lot of the younger women saying, you know what, we've made a lot of progress on advancing women,
putting a women in the White House would be nice but it's not the most important thing to me. There are other things that I care about more and
Bernie Sanders speaks to those more.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[15:45:00]
GERGEN: So she can't count on them coming out for her and that's been an important part of the coalition that Barack Obama built. So that's why
there's so many question marks, you know just as in European politics, everything is uncertain. Nobody knows for sure.
GORANI: That's true.
GERGEN: -- how this is all going to turn out.
GORANI: And that's what makes it so interesting. David Gergen, thanks very much and we'll see you later as well during our special coverage on CNN
seen all around the world.
Coming up, Jeb Bush is not topping the polls, that's for sure, but he's hanging in there.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: We'll discuss the man who once seemed to be the establishment candidate. That and much more with Ari Fleischer, the former U.S. Press
Secretary under George W. Bush. We'll be right back.
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(END VIDEO CLIP)
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GORANI: He was once considered the favorite, at least among the Republican establishment, but Jeb Bush's campaign is struggling.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: He stands in fifth place in the latest poll the CNN-WMUR Poll not far from John Kasich taking his campaign on New Hampshire. Even from Ted
Cruz who took Iowa. Let's discuss this with a man who has experience with the Bush brand, Ari Fleischer, is the former White house Press Secretary
under George W. Bush.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: He's now a Republican consultant and he joins me now live from Stamford, Connecticut. Ari Fleischer, thanks for being with us. When you
look at Jeb Bush's numbers, what goes through your mind? What should he be doing?
ARI FLEISCHER, FORMER WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: It's the wrong cycle for somebody like Jeb, is I think what the voters are saying.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
FLEISCHER: Jeb Bush is a thoughtful, cerebral politician. That was his record as Governor of Florida. He's not a bang the table yell and shout
politician. This cycle Hala, is a cycle in which people really are responding to Donald Trump and the throw the bums out of Washington,
nothing's working, nobody in Washington knows what they're doing. They want someone who is displaying anger, who will pound that table and is willing
to throw the bums out. You see Bernie Sanders, too vis a vie Hillary Clinton. It's that kind of year so far.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: But isn't that what the Republican Party is leaning toward becoming because it's not just - it's not just Trump, because Trump says it in a
kind of reality show kind of way and he uses very offensive language in some cases.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: But then you have Ted Cruz as well. I mean some of the same themes are coming out in other campaigns.
FLEISCHER: No, that's exactly my point. You were asking about Jeb.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
And Jeb is reflective of a different brand and a different style of Republicanism. It's what made him a successful governor. It is that
thoughtful, careful approach.
2016 is not a year in which the voters in either party seem to be looking for thoughtful careful. There's a tremendous amount of frustration by the
voters and on the Republican side, so much of it of course is aimed at President Obama, conservatives in Washington who got elected and didn't go
far enough. That's what's propelling a lot of both Ted Cruz's and Donald Trump's candidacies.
GORANI: All right, you're saying he's thoughtful and cerebral. But he did tweet, he did basically kind of use the Trump strategy by calling Trump a
whiner and a loser on twitter and people were saying, what is this race? What are they all 6th graders here just fighting it out in the school yard?
Is Jeb Bush trying that tactic? It's working for him in the polls when he adopts it.
[15:50:11]
FLEISCHER: Look, I think that there is no question that Donald Trump's style has had a spillover effect on every candidate. Candidates, that
typically don't like to get down in the mud have found they have very little choice not to get in the mud because they can't let Trump define
them, so they need to fight back.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
FLEISCHER: Some candidates are better at fighting back than others. Jeb at the debate Saturday night, used substance about eminent domain to fight
back strongly against Donald Trump. He was specific, he was detailed and he was accurate. That helped.
But stylistically, no one can keep up with Donald Trump, and with the things he says, he breaks all the boundaries of politics, which is why a
lot of people in the country like him. Because he doesn't come across like a politician.
GORANI: Well -- but he is redefining your party. The Republican Party. Do you think we're looking when we look at Donald Trump at the next nominee
for the Republican Party? And if so, what does that mean for the Republican Party in America?
FLEISCHER: It's much too soon to say that he'll be the nominee. I think he has about a 60% chance of being the nominee but the race is just beginning
so we'll have to wait to and see what happens.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FLEISCHER: But if Donald Trump is the nominee Hala, I think what's going to happen in America, instead of having two parties, you're essentially
going to have three blocks. You'll have a Liberal movement which will be the Bernie Sanders, and the Elizabeth Warren movement.
You're going to have a conservative movement, the Ted Cruz and the traditional Republican conservative small government movement. And then
you're going to have this populist orphism in the middle led by Donald Trump who is really not strongly aligned with any one ideology or idea,
he's anti-free trade, he's very against a lot of these agreements that have been set up in different nations. He's not a reformer when it comes to
entitlements and he's been all over the map on social issues, democrat and Republican different positions.
So Trump is much more a populist without principle who just has a tremendous amount of support, because he's so different and he's not a
politician.
GORANI: I want to ask you one quick last question on Michael Bloomberg potentially entering the race. I mean How likely is that? He doesn't have
much time to decide.
FLEISCHER: If Bloomberg gets in, it will be a Republican dream come true. Because he will steal a lot more votes out of the Democratic column
than he will out of the Republican column. And that's where Michael Bloomberg is. In the north east, he could get elected as the Mayor of New
York city, anywhere else, Republicans in America outside the northeast, look at Michael Bloomberg, and think he's a northeast liberal.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
FLEISCHER: He won't get in if Hillary is running, only if it's Sanders against Trump or Cruz, that tells you how closely aligned ideologically and
personally he is to Hillary. That's why he will hurt the Democrats more if he gets in than the Republicans.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: All right, Ari Fleischer, thank you very much. I appreciate your analysis. We hope to speak to you again soon once we have firm results out
of New Hampshire and other primary states.
Don't forget, you can get all the latest news and our analysis from our Facebook page. You can find it Facebook.com/hala goranicnn.
Coming up what would do you if you missed your cue to come on stage?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: We'll show you what Ben Carson did. spoiler alert, it was pretty awkward. I'll have that wrap-up for you coming up.
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GORANI: Enter stage left or so Ben Carson should have done at the last debate. Instead, he looked pretty awkward and he missed his cue. I cannot
even imagine the producers as they watched this entire thing unravel.
Now, Ben Carson watched as his rivals filed past him. Metaphorical perhaps, Jeanne Moos has our wrap of awkward moments on the campaign trail.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JEANNE MOOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The desperate gestures of a back stage handler told the story of what one website called a chain reaction of
cringe. Sure, it could have been worse. No one fell like Miss America. No one got a concussion like Conan did or tripped over a red carpet while
singing their national anthem on skates. No, the debate introduction was just incredibly awkward.
[15:55:14]
MOOS: Starting when Ben Carson didn't respond to his name, for the obvious reason.
BEN CARSON: I couldn't hear.
MOOS: And just when Carson seemed ready to advance.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Texas Senator Ted Cruz.
MOOS: Ted Cruz cruised by, but Donald Trump likewise seemed to miss his name letting bush by with a tap and a see ya later guys expression.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And that is something you will never see again, Jeb Bush, passing Donald Trump.
MOOS: When the moderators finally introduced -- when only four were there, Chris Christie volunteered. What a mess tweeted Wendy Williams, which
prompted a Carson defender to bring up a dramatic entrance Wendy made on stage. Broncos quarterback (Aqib Talib) wanted to celebrate on a super bowl
post-game show but he more or less tackled himself. Crashing the set.
Sometimes your entrance can go just fine but then it's time for your exit. Remember when President Bush had trouble handling those locked door handles
in China. On "the view" the hosts recreated the Republican snafu they made their entrance, but when it comes to hailing these chiefs, better hail them
louder.
Jeanie Moos, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Okay. So listen, it happens to everybody. You missed your cues. In this case, presidential candidates may not have acted super smoothly but
which of those running for the White House is the right match for you. Head to cnn.com/politics and look for the 2016 candidate match maker test. Based
on your answers, a series of questions, we will tell you which American Presidential candidate is most in line with your thinking. When you are
done, read more about your match and check out all the latest news from New Hampshire at cnn.com/politics.
All right and I've been mentioning, we have special coverage coming up of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary. It starts in an hour at 10:00 p.m.
in London, 11:00 p.m. Central European time only on CNN.
This has been "The World Right Now," I'm Hala Gorani. Thanks, for watching. "Quest Means Business is next.
END
