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Hala Gorani Tonight
Vice President Pence And President Erdogan Meet; Interview With Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts; Mick Mulvaney Admits Quid Pro Quo On Ukraine; U.K. And E.U. Reach Breakthrough Agreement; Pence: U.S. And Turkey Agree To Ceasefire In Syria; Trump, Pelosi Clash Over "Meltdown" During Syria Meeting; Sondland: Trump Directed Him To Work With Giuliani On Ukraine. Aired 2-3p ET
Aired October 17, 2019 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Look, there's a lot of stuff we simply don't know from hearing Vice President Pence talk.
He hasn't established what he means by, quote, "the safe zone." Now, if you listen to President Erdogan, that's pretty much the entire area of the
Syrian-Turkish border where the Syrian Kurds live. So if he means that and he means a 20-mile-depth area within that, then that involves major Kurdish
population centers being evacuated.
It doesn't seem like he means that because he says there will be no military action against the major population center of Kobani, which is
within that particular safe zone.
So there's a lot missing here. He did give a slight clue, where he said the U.S. has always agreed on a safe zone. There was a security mechanism
put in place by the United States between the towns of Tal Abyad, it seems, and Ras al-Ain, which are currently pretty much taken now by Turkish forces
in between them, although there are still clashes happening in Ras al-Ain.
So what you're really looking at here is an undefined area in which the U.S. says the Syrian Kurds will withdraw from. Well, I have to say they've
pretty much, I think, withdrawn from most of it already and the Turks have pushed significantly further into Syria than that 20-mile area. We
ourselves saw on Sunday, how they're about 30, 40 miles in in some areas.
So the question you really have to ask yourself is, what happens outside of that established safe zone if, for example, Syrian Kurds -- or the Syrian
regime, who aren't part of this agreement, as far as we know, but they're backing the Syrian Kurds -- if they end up in clashes, does that mean the
ceasefire doesn't come into effect?
Bear in mind the significance of the 120-hour term we're being given here. That is not an accident. That is the period of time between now and the
moment in which Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Putin meet in Sochi. That is where many people felt the ultimate diplomatic deal
about this will be made.
So essentially, what you have here is an undefined amount of territory, which Vice President Pence hasn't made clear what it is. We know it's not
Kobani, so that possibly limits how far -- this sounds like they're not asking the Syrian Kurds to give up major population centers.
We're asking -- it seems, the United States is saying the Syrian Kurds were put out of areas where they may already not be, back away. And outside of
that area, it's unclear what may occur. And then we have to wait until that 120-hour period has passed, and probably the meeting in Sochi.
We'll be hearing a lot of backstage diplomacy involving Iran, possibly as well, and Russia, agreeing to various terms, to see possibly whether this
will become a permanent ceasefire. But do not imagine that this has suddenly changed the situation on the ground. There are senior Turkish
officials saying that they are very happy with this as well.
The fate of Kobani is always going to be a sticking point because it's very symbolic for the Syrian Kurds, who fought for months in the rubble to kick
ISIS out of it. But it's vital for the Turkish plan, too. So a lot missing from Vice President Pence.
It probably happens when you have people who aren't subject matter experts, dealing with something like this on such a grand scale. A lot missing from
that press conference. They weren't able, in the press conference, to hone him down on -- but really, all eyes, I think, are focused on Tuesday's
meeting in Sochi, after this, rather than necessarily the sudden implementation of a magic solution on the ground.
Bear in mind, too, do not forget, this all happened because of the enabling move on Sunday, when Donald Trump told President Erdogan he would withdraw
troops from that safe zone to enable a Turkish advance. That's how we started this, and that's what precipitated the American withdrawal --
Brianna.
BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: That's right. He said the U.S. did not support the Turkish invasion. But certainly, as you say, Nick, they made
it possible and sort of rolled out the carpet there.
Barbara Starr, to you -- and I think it's also important to mention that in part of this, part of the reason why senior Turkish officials are happy
with this, is because they get any further sanctions stopped, although we'll see -- you know, Congress has something in the works here, so we'll
see what's up with that.
But once -- and they expect that they can work out something more permanent, they said here, in the comings days, then the sanctions that of
course take a long time to even go into effect, that have already been in place, are going to be cancelled. So that would mean no sanctions from the
U.S. for Turkey.
But, Barbara Starr, as you look at this, what is, aside from where we see Vice President Pence and the secretary of state, there, announcing this
ceasefire -- or a ceasefire that you might use air quotes around, to talk about whether it's very substantive -- what really is the role of the U.S.
here, especially militarily with forces that had pulled out of this region?
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, look, I think there's two victors already in this, before we even see the details. Certainly, the
Turks, as you just said, Brianna, they've got a victory under their belt right here. Because right now, at least for right now, they have the Trump
administration not feeling the same political heat perhaps, they are off their back and they have sanctions relief before sanctions even go into
effect.
Russia, still, no one has heard from Russia. Russia has achieved what it wants here, which is a toehold in the Middle East, U.S. out of Syria,
Russia moving in, Russia able to exert its influence with the Assad regime.
[14:05:00]
This ceasefire, I mean, you have to look at it with cold military eyes. What are we looking at here? First, the YPG, the Syrian Kurds. Twenty-
four hours ago, the president was saying they're no angels, the U.S. has nothing to do with them. Now, these very words of trying to help them out,
get them out of there safely, making sure violence is reduced, obviously a good thing. But suddenly, back, warmer words for the Syrian Kurds, 24
hours later.
What does that mean? You have no mechanism in place, as far as we know, right now. We have to see the agreement. How would you even enforce this?
Will the U.S. play a role? Certainly not on the ground, U.S. troops are coming out. Will they play a role in the skies? What role will the Assad
regime, the Russians, the Iranians and numerous militias potentially tied to al-Qaida and ISIS, running around in Syria, engaging in violence, what
role will they play?
What is -- you know, in a ceasefire, you have to have an enforcement and monitoring mechanism. And I think most people will tell you, in a
ceasefire, you need some kind of international participation. The feelings run so deep amongst all the players on the battlefield, there is going to
have to be some kind of neutral party to monitor all of this.
KEILAR: Yes. Who will that be? We do not know. Barbara Starr -- Nick Paton Walsh, you wanted to say something? Please.
PATON WALSH: Sorry, I just -- bear in mind the history of ceasefires in Syria here. And this has often been a mechanism we've heard from the
Russians, particularly when dealing with the other province in Syria of Idlib, a ceasefire is called, it's violated.
It's all about manipulating the political negotiation, that you essentially provide a period of time in which people think things are OK and things are
calming down. You achieve your military objective on the ground, and then you go back to political negotiation again.
So bear in mind, the term "ceasefire" may mean something different to Vice President Pence when he talks about it. But for the established players on
the ground like the Syrian regime, the Russian government, the Turkish, perhaps, too, in all of this, it may mean something slightly less solid.
And we still don't have a geographical boundary for where it's supposed to apply. If things happen outside of that, at undefined geographical
boundary, then it could be all off within a matter of hours -- Brianna.
KEILAR: Nick Paton Walsh, Barbara Starr, thank you so much to both of you.
And our special coverage will continue with some extraordinary --
HALA GORANI, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST: All right, welcome. We began with that breaking news that my colleague Brianna Keilar was covering there.
U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, announcing that the U.S. and Turkey have agreed on a ceasefire in Syria. This is what he said, minutes ago in
Ankara.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIKE PENCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Today, the United States and Turkey have agreed to a ceasefire in Syria.
The Turkish side will pause Operation Peace Spring in order to allow for the withdrawal of YPG forces from the safe zone for 120 hours. All
military operations under Operation Peace Spring will be paused, and Operation Peace Spring will be halted entirely on completion of the
withdrawal.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Mike Pence made that announcement just a few minutes ago, alongside the U.S. secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, in the Turkish capital.
It came after a long meeting with Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This was the first major meeting between the two countries since U.S.
President Donald Trump pulled those American troops out of northern Syria, a move that is widely seen as having given Mr. Erdogan the green light to
move into Syria in the first place.
In other words, this ceasefire, made necessary by American actions with the United States and the Trump administration, now taking credit for an
achievement that would not have been needed, had the U.S. president not told President Erdogan, essentially, that it was OK for his military to
cross over into northern Syria.
So many questions about what happens, going forward. Jomana Karadsheh is with me. She is in Ankara, Turkey with more. So -- and also, Jomana, just
to tell our viewers, essentially the U.S. is handing Erdogan yet another victory, doing him yet another favor by saying that they would facilitate
and support the evacuation of these SDF forces, the Kurdish-led SDF fighting force, from this 20-mile-deep safe zone. What -- how will that
happen in practice? Has the SDF been consulted on this? Have they agree to these terms?
JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I mean, Hala, this is the big question right now. You know, you've got so many players on the ground
whether it is the SDF or whether it is the Syrian military, the Syrian regime and the Russians, who've moved into the area over the past few days,
after the Syrian Kurdish fighters had to turn to them for support after the U.S. began withdrawing and not providing them with support.
I have to tell you, this is quite the surprise. You know, we've been talking to experts and analysts here before this visit, and no one really
was expecting them to come out with any sort of agreement.
[14:10:10]
And to have this announcement, this is really going to be seen as a win-win for the Trump administration, where they can take credit basically for
pausing the operation for now, and that ceasefire if it holds. And also, as you mentioned, for the Turkish president, getting what they want.
And we've heard from senior Turkish officials in the last few minutes. One senior Turkish official, telling us they got exactly what they wanted out
of this meeting. And the Turkish official, also saying that Turkey's military operation paid off. The terrorists will withdraw -- of course,
referring to the Syrian Kurdish fighters, the YPG, referred to as "terrorists." They will withdraw from the safe zone within 120 hours, and
Turkey will enforce that safe zone.
Hala, for months, Turkey and the United States, the State Department, the Pentagon, the military, they've been negotiating this safe zone that Turkey
wants, about 30 to 35 kilometers into Syria, that will see the withdrawal of the Syrian Kurdish fighters. And these talks broke down because they
could not agree on what they agreed on today.
But we're still -- you know, so many questions right now. We'll have to wait and see how this actually translates on the ground and how does the
Syrian regime and Russia fit into all of this.
Of course, within those five days, that is when President Erdogan is headed to Russia and he will be meeting with Vladimir Putin. So we'll have to
wait and see what comes out of all of this and if this ceasefire does hold, and if they do -- if we do see the YPG withdrawing from these areas.
GORANI: Yes. There are so many questions. The status of certain key cities, where the SDF fighters, the Kurds, the YPG will evacuate to, what
happens to ISIS facilities.
Let's not forget -- Stephen Collinson's joining us now from Washington -- President Trump has basically said, I don't want any American troops in
northern Syria. They're now announcing a deal where they're saying they will help facilitate the transfer or the evacuation of Kurdish fighters,
YPG fighters.
How does all this happen when the Kurds have had to, now, ally themselves with the Assad regime and their Russian backers in order to protect
themselves against the Turkish incursion? How does that work?
STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Exactly. And the -- in the week, as you were just saying, since this operation was taking place, there
are now a bunch of new actors in that area. The Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad, Russian influence there now. The U.S. may not simply have
the geopolitical influence, A, to monitor the ceasefire if it wanted to, or eve have the U.S. forces in place.
I think what we're seeing here is the Trump administration, desperate for a victory, to try and tamp down some of the criticism of the president that's
coming from Republican senators, especially at a time when he's facing an impeachment inquiry.
I don't think what is contained in this deal, as far as it has yet been made public, is going to do that. I mean, effectively, it seems that the
U.S. has agreed a ceasefire to a military operation, which was given the green light by the president himself. And now, they appear to be doing the
work of the Turks by trying to get those YPG Kurdish forces back from that area, which Mike Pence is calling a safe zone.
So the administration will no doubt call this a huge victory, and you saw the vice president there, exaggerated praise on President Trump for his
intervention to get this ceasefire. But, you know, the facts speak rather differently.
GORANI: Stephen Collinson and Jomana, thanks very much to both of you.
CNN Military Analyst and Retired Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton joins me now. Cedric, what do you make of this? Because this is, of course, the
White House spin saying, look, we facilitated the ceasefires, the guns will go silent, we've, you know, gone to -- I've sent Vice President Mike Pence
and the secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, and they've achieved this ceasefire on the ground.
But do you believe -- are you optimistic that it can work?
CEDRIC LEIGHTON, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Oh, Hala, I wish I were, but I'm not. This is a really, you know, obviously, as you know, we were talking
about earlier, this is something that happened very quickly, a lot of people are involved who really don't know this area very well. And you
have, you know, as Stephen mentioned, so many new actors here.
So as far as -- you know, from a diplomatic or military standpoint, I don't see it working at all, Hala.
GORANI: Yes.
LEIGHTON: I think that this is something that, you know, may not be worth the paper it's written on.
GORANI: Right. And what's interesting, too, is that the U.S. is essentially, once again -- and we heard it from the president -- parroting
Turkish and President Erdogan talking points here, with the safe zone, calling it a safe zone. And then saying that it would support and
facilitate the evacuation of these YPG fighters, many of whom actually live there. I mean, this is where they're from.
[14:15:17]
Where would they go? How will this be policed? Who will control the safe zone? How do you make sure there are no skirmishes? And with all of that
against the backdrop of a complete American withdrawal from the area?
LEIGHTON: There's no way that you can enforce a peace -- or whatever you want to call this, a ceasefire agreement -- in this way, without some kind
of leverage. And usually, leverage takes the form of either economic pressure, which they, you know, obviously alluded to with the sanctions and
they're giving them sanctions relief for at least five days, as I understand it.
But the other thing is, is if you don't have a military force on the ground, there is no way that you can enforce anything of this type. And of
course we're withdrawing, you know, the president's direction. And it is one of those areas where if you don't have that visible presence, you are
not going to achieve anything.
And as far as, like you mentioned, the YPG, the Kurdish groups here that have, you know, fought so hard as part of the SDF, the Syrian Democratic
Forces, they are being, in effect, as you very correctly point out, told to leave their homes.
And this is not what you do. You don't do this to people that have been our allies, you don't do this to anybody who is involved in anything. Even
if we were the neutral party in this, there is no way that you could get them to do this.
And they're not a part of this negotiation, it appears. I didn't see any Kurdish representatives in the meeting between President Erdogan and Vice
President Pence. And without Kurdish representatives and without their buy-in, this is doomed to fail.
GORANI: And the status of Kobani as well? The -- Vice President Mike Pence, saying that this includes the promise not to attack Kobani, and says
that the Turkish operation will be -- will end when the evacuation is complete. But as you mentioned, there is absolutely no guarantee that the
evacuation will happen at all, let alone that we'll see it to completion.
LEIGHTON: That's right. And, you know, you also have the presence of the Russians. You know, the Russians are there, the Assad regime is there.
Neither of these countries were a party to this agreement, at least as far as we know right now.
And to have this touted as being, you know, the saving grace or that saving moment to pull us back from the brink, is at the very least, being overly
optimistic. And that is, I think, a very dangerous position for us to be in right now.
GORANI: Cedric Leighton, as always, thanks so much for joining us on short notice, with more on our breaking news story --
LEIGHTON: You bet.
GORANI: -- with the U.S. vice president in Ankara, announcing a ceasefire in northern Syria.
Our other big story this hour, of course, is that Brexit deal, as the clock ticks to the October 31st deadline. There is an agreement on the table.
Will it pass Parliament? My colleague Richard Quest is in Brussels, and he's standing by with more on what happened today -- Richard.
RICHARD QUEST, CNN EDITOR-AT-LARGE: Well, what happened today was arguably a little unrealistic in the sense, Hala, that you had Michel Barnier, you
had Jean-Claude Juncker, you had Leo Varadkar, you had Donald Tusk, all together saying how this deal had been arranged and Boris Johnson, too, is
here, saying this deal has been arranged, which would solve the Northern Ireland problem and get rid of the backstop.
But now, they have to actually see if it can get through the British Parliament. With me is Philippe Lamberts, the Greens Belgium MEP. Good to
see you. What do you make of this deal that's been put together, that pretty much permanently will alter the relationship between northern
Ireland, customs-wise and VAT-wise, and the U.K.?
PHILIPPE LAMBERTS, BELGIAN EUROPEAN PARTLIAMENT MEMBER: Yes. Well, we've been here before. We have had a variant of that deal agreed with Theresa
May a few months back. It never passed muster with the British parliament, and now we are there again with a reduced version of the so-called
backstop, which is fine by us. But we have yet to see whether there will be a majority for it in the House of Commons.
So, indeed, it was a bit unrealistic when -- well, surrealistic, I would say -- that when you heard all those leaders, well, acting as if, well,
this was a sealed -- done and sealed. But actually, everything has yet to happen.
QUEST: So if we accept that they have to start somewhere --
LAMBERTS: Yes.
QUEST: -- so starting with an agreement, which you can then build upon. But if this gets voted down in the House of Commons, and he asks for an
extension, as he's obliged to by U.K. law, what happens then?
LAMBERTS: Well, then that extension has to be granted. But I would say, I would urge the British opposition to have a scenario. Because what I've
seen (ph) so far is a House of Commons unable to agree on a scenario. So they are united against stuff like a no-deal Brexit or against the deals
that have been presented so far, but they need to agree on something.
[14:20:90]
And to me, the most realistic scenario would be to put the deal -- so basically, to conditionally agree to a deal and submit it to a second
referendum.
QUEST: What was the mood here tonight? What's the mood amongst MEPs, what's the mood amongst European politicians? Are you just sick and tired
of this?
LAMBERTS: Well, emotionally, we are sick and tired. And rationally, we say, well, this is a momentous decision where the future of the E.U., the
future of U.K. are at stake. We should keep cool heads, and that's what we tried to do, and go step by step to (ph) it.
We are not at the end of the road yet. If the British Parliament, big surprise, adopts the deal, then the European Parliament will adopt it as
well. We'll ratify it next week. And then, indeed, that will be the end of phase one and we will enter phase two, where we negotiate the future
relationship.
If there's no agreement, then probably that means extension, possibly election or a second referendum. And then we will see.
QUEST: Do you think that the E.U.'s gone as far as it can now? And -- I mean, but the E.U. will never say go?
LAMBERTS: No. The E.U. will never say go. I mean, we cannot be the ones pulling the plug. So if -- if we have a request -- and Donald Tusk was
very clear on that -- if we have a request from the British government, then we will consider it. So it didn't close the door yet, it didn't
basically pre-empt a request being made. And I think he had the right attitude there.
QUEST: Philippe, pleasure (ph) to see you, good to see you.
LAMBERTS: My pleasure.
QUEST: So thank you, Hala. That's where things stand here at the moment in Brussels, a very busy day. And, really, it will continue. The next
moment, of course, will be back in London on Saturday, when Parliament has that special session that begins at 9:30 in the morning.
GORANI: All right. Richard Quest, thanks very much.
And we'll see you later. And we'll also see you on "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS," with much more on this breaking news out of Brussels.
Still to come tonight, first the White House said there was no quid pro quo. Now, it's saying, get over it. What President Trump's acting chief
of staff just told reporters about whether aid to Ukraine was tied to investigations into political rivals. Details next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GORANI: Welcome back. We'll continue our breaking news on that ceasefire announcement in northern Syria and the implications of it.
We're monitoring what the U.S. president is saying currently. He's at a naval air station in Fort Worth, Texas. He's speaking. If he says
anything about this ceasefire or anything that is newsworthy, we will go to that.
Now, speaking of Donald Trump, as the ongoing impeachment inquiry continues to consumer Washington, a jaw-dropping acknowledgement just a short time
ago from the White House acting chief of staff.
Remember how President Trump has been insisting there was no quid pro quo for Ukraine? Well, at a very rare White House press briefing, Mick
Mulvaney said that aid to Ukraine was in fact tied to President Trump's wish for an investigation into the 2016 election. Listen to Mulvaney.
[14:25:01]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: -- described as a quid pro quo? It is, funding will not flow unless the investigation into the -- into the Democratic server
happens as well.
MICK MULVANEY, ACTING WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: We do -- we do that all the time with foreign policy. We were holding up money at the same time
for -- what was it? The Northern Triangle countries. We were holding up aid at the Northern Triangle countries so that they -- so that they would
change their policies on immigration.
Well, McKinney (ph) said yesterday that he was really upset with the political influence in foreign policy. That was one of the reasons he was
so upset about this. And I have news for everybody: Get over it. There's going to be political influence in foreign policy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Get over it. Congressman Adam Schiff, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, which is one of the three panels leading the
impeachment inquiry, responded swiftly to Mulvaney's comments, saying things have gone from very bad to much, much worse. These are the words of
Schiff.
Let's get more on this. CNN White House Reporter, Sarah Westwood joins me now, live, with more on what the acting White House chief of staff has
said. This was, as we mentioned, a very rare briefing in the White House today.
SARAH WESTWOOD, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: That's right, Hala. It came as a bit of a surprise. It wasn't initially on the schedule today. But Mick
Mulvaney, acting White House chief of staff, coming out and basically confirming one of the allegations at the heart of this whole scandal, at
the heart of the impeachment inquiry. And that's the motivations for withholding that military assistance to Ukraine.
Now, the White House has said this had no connection to the president's desire to see his political rival Joe Biden have his family, his ties to
Ukraine investigated. But Mulvaney said that the president's desire for investigation was explicitly tied to the suspension of that aid this
summer, which obviously the reasons behind that and the timing of it, coming about a week before the president's now-infamous July 25th phone
call with Ukrainian President Zelensky, has been under scrutiny.
Now, Mulvaney, saying that he'd never had a conversation in this White House about specifically Burisma, the natural gas company on whose board
Hunter Biden sat, that position obviously key to the allegations from the Trump side.
Unproven that there was a conflict of interest involving the Bidens in Ukraine there. But obviously, Mulvaney's press conference, raising a lot
more questions than it answered about the president's defense so far of this perfect call and this denial that a quid pro quo existed, when here we
have Mulvaney, Hala, explicitly confirming that it did.
GORANI: All right. Sarah Westwood, thanks very much.
[14:27:30]
A lot more to come this evening. What is next for that 11th hour Brexit deal? We'll go back to Brussels. Also, a key witness at the center of the
Ukraine scandal, breaking with U.S. President Trump, potentially. The latest on the impeachment inquiry unfolding on Capitol Hill. We'll have
much more after a quick break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:30:10]
GORANI: Back to Brexit now. It's another breaking story we've been watching all day. And after years of wrangling, the agreement between the
U.K. and the E.U. is being heralded as a breakthrough. It's important to note this is a big step, but it's not a done deal. We'll have more on why
in a moment.
First, the British prime minister was all smiles as he and the European Commission president shook on an agreement for the U.K.'s departure from
the European Union. It would keep Britain from crashing out in two weeks, if Parliament approves it. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BORIS JOHNSON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: Now is the moment for us to get Brexit done, and then together, to work on building our future partnership,
which I think can be incredibly positive, both for the U.K. and for the E.U.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Just a short time ago, European member states formally endorsed the deal. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, also sounded upbeat about
the whole thing.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
EMMANUEL MACRON, PRESIDENT OF FRANCE (through translator): I think it's good news and this agreement replies to the objectives which were on the
E.U. side to defend the integrity of the European market and free trade, and on the U.K. side to have all the guarantees to preserve their own
integrity and to preserve the co-balance for the Irish. This agreement appears to be a good compromise that allows to answer all these objectives.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Well, leaders are lining up in Brussels saying, effectively, let's get this done, and that's where we find Richard Quest once again.
Richard, with a guest, over to you.
RICHARD QUEST, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST: Yes, let's get this done, is the -- is the mantra of the day. You're right, Hala, from all the leaders. But
they all -- they all tinged that with they wish the U.K. wasn't leaving, but if you are, then let's get this done.
I'm joined by the Swedish E.U. minister, Hans Dahlgren. Good to see you, Minister.
HANS DAHLGREN, SWEDISH E.U. MINISTER: Good to see you.
QUEST: The E.U. had always said that the withdrawal agreement wasn't to be opened and that the backstop would never be removed. Well, it's on both.
DAHLGREN: Well, you know, this is an agreement that we are proud of because it's made -- it's possible, finally, to have an orderly Brexit.
That's the most important thing for us. That the U.K. doesn't crash out of the E.U. and while we have an agreement that respects the reeling
borderlines for us, that's including not having a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
GORANI: But have you given Theresa May this wiggle room, you would have had this a lot sooner. But the stubbornness are refusing to open up or get
rid of the backstop has brought us to this moment.
DAHLGREN: I'm not so sure about that. I cannot speculate about what happened a year ago. But now, we have the situation where the British
prime minister and our negotiators, they have a deal, we hope it will also carry in the House of Parliament and in the European Parliament so that
we'll have an orderly Brexit. That's what's really important for our citizens, for our companies, for our families, and for our money.
QUEST: Minister, you do not expect this to pass the House of Commons on Saturday. Because if you do expect it, you're probably the only one who
does.
DAHLGREN: I'm not so sure. I've met a lot of people who think that this is really is necessary, and also think it's necessary but also do all they
can to make it happen.
QUEST: If it doesn't, and I know you're going to say you hope it does, then we've been doing the arithmetic. It's going to be just about -- it'll
be difficult. I allow you to but maybe impossible.
DAHLGREN: Actually, we have agreed tonight, to say, in response to that question, and I think what many other say, if that could happen, if the
House of Commons will say no to the arrangement that we have now and negotiated, then our president to the European Council, Donald Tusk, will
consult to all the member states and see what we have next that we will say.
QUEST: And what will Sweden's position be in that situation? Will you say one more extension but it's got to be competition on either, a referendum,
a confirmation referendum or an election?
DAHLGREN: I'm sorry, Richard, my prime minister will say that first to Donald Tusk, before we say anything to you.
QUEST: Oh, that's a little -- I can't really complain too much on that. Do you get the feeling it's the beginning of the end or the end of the
beginning? I mean, have we sort of reached a position here that the two sides -- let's face it, one of your most ardent critics, Boris Johnson, has
come to at his (INAUDIBLE) and from that, you can take it forward.
DAHLGREN: I think that sounds a relief this morning when the news came that Boris Johnson and Trump will join together and announce that they have
a deal.
We have spent three and a half years now on this process. We are so fed up in having lots of these summit meetings spent hour after hour on new
procedures. Let's go down to what really matters to European citizens, jobs, climate, security, migration. This is just that are on top -- should
be on the top of our agenda. Now, we can really deal with them. That's good.
[14:35:11]
QUEST: Let me ask you about jobs and the economy. The economy is slowing. The ECP has taken extraordinary measures again. But Germany, still, will
not go to deficit spending. It still insist some maintaining its services.
DAHLGREN: Well, I'm not going to give an advice to the German government on how they spend their budget. But it's true that we need more stronger
European economy, battling through more innovation. Put more modern resources. We're talking about the value tomorrow. Spend more on these
modern things that will create more jobs all over Europe.
QUEST: Good to see you, Minister. Thank you very much indeed.
DAHLGREN: Thank you.
QUEST: Hala, that's the view here tonight. Relief, I mean, there's going to be a dinner tonight, by the way, Hala. They are starting a dinner. But
then it's going to be in enlargement issues, Macedonia and the like which is going to take up quite a lot of time.
I'm told that the French are going to be difficult on that, which means that the dinner which could have been over by 10:00 might go as late as
midnight.
GORANI: So talking about enlargement at this time. Interesting. Thanks very much, Richard Quest, and we'll see you on "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS" at
the top of the hour.
Whatever choice the British M.P.s make, the members of Parliament in this country, there is massive uncertainty about the impact on the economy and
what happens if this deal doesn't go through.
James Blitz joins me now. He's the Financial Times' Whitehall editor.
JAMES BLITZ, WHITEHALL EDITOR, FINANCIAL TIMES: Hi.
GORANI: You've been crunching the numbers. Does Boris Johnson have the numbers in Parliament to get this through the finish line?
BLITZ: On Saturday, it is going to be very close indeed. I think it's pretty clear that the Democratic Unionist Party, the 10 M.P.s out of the
650 and the Commons are critical.
GORANI: In the Northern Ireland Party.
BLITZ: Yes, the Northern Ireland Party, they're not going to back this deal. They've been absolutely clear today that they're not going to do it.
If you take them out of the equation, our numbers suggest at the present, it's looking like 318 will vote for the deal, 321 will vote against.
GORANI: OK.
BLITZ: Very close numbers. If two M.P.s decide to go the other way on our assessment, then he would do it. But we're assuming that all the
conservative M.P.s will back the deal around 10 Labour, all the independent conservatives at Johnson throughout.
GORANI: You're assuming all of that to get to 318.
BLITZ: Yes, that's to get to 318. That's what we're assuming.
GORANI: So he's not -- he's not going to --
BLITZ: Well, I think he will get most of that. I think he will get pretty well all those conservatives. Remember, even the very hard Brexiteers in
the Conservative Party, if they see this go down, if they go against Johnson, just think. They will have voted three times against May, one
time against Johnson.
I mean, for those people, they will have to start asking themselves, is Brexit finished? Are we going to a second referendum? So I think they
will broadly speaking come on board.
The question is really how many Labour M.Ps can he get. At the moment, it's nine or 10, but he really probably needs a few more.
GORANI: Because Jeremy Corbyn has essentially come out against it, the Lib Dems have come out against it. The DUP, as you said, are expected not to
vote in favor of it. Anything he can do in the meantime? Is that 24, 48 hours?
BLITZ: That's not a great deal he can do, really, because the deal is now fixed in stone. Maybe the staff, the leaders will say to him like, who
knows that might make people feel a bit more easy.
The key point is this, I think, the country generally is fed up with the whole thing like everybody.
GORANI: Not just the country, I was going to say.
BLITZ: It wants to move up.
GORANI: I think the entire continent just --
BLITZ: And so therefore I think a lot of M.P.s we think -- look, if we vote this thing down for goodness sake, the atmosphere will be terrible.
GORANI: I've got to ask you though for our viewers who aren't following this intimately, and frankly, even for me. I mean, I went through the
agreement. What is different about this agreement from deals that we've seen in past? It's about Northern Ireland, isn't it?
BLITZ: Yes. The May deal was one -- the key problem is Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic need to have an invisible border as part of that.
The 1998 agreement that created peace right across Ireland. That's what the E.U. -- pretty much, everybody wants to see happen.
That was OK on the May's deal, because she was going to keep the whole of the U.K. inside the customs arrangements with the E.U. Johnson and the rest
of the conservatives didn't want to do that, so what they're saying is we'll keep Northern Ireland very, very closely aligned indeed to the Irish
Republic and the E.U.
GORANI: It's a special status for one part of the United Kingdom.
BLITZ: Exactly. And the reason why I think Unionist Parties who are pro- London don't want that is that they think, my goodness, this is a real shift of Northern Ireland and its relationship with the Irish Republic and
that is the problem, but that's the big difference.
It really gives Northern Ireland a special status, which is much closer to the Irish republic, and that's quite extraordinary.
GORANI: Yes. And it's the unity of the country has -- the identity of the country.
BLITZ: The big problem with Johnson's deal is that, actually, if you look -- and this is the criticism a lot of people have, quite a lot of -- apart
from the economic implications, which are not good, is that this is Northern Ireland moving towards the Irish republic. Scotland will then
turn around and say, you've given Northern Ireland that special status, we want it as well.
[14:40:10]
So actually a very strong criticism is over time this has granted and leading to the breakup of the United Kingdom.
GORANI: James Blitz of the Financial Times, always a pleasure. Thanks so much for joining us.
Let's bring you up to speed with breaking news this hour. The U.S. and Turkey announcing a ceasefire in Syria, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence made
the announcement in Ankara, the Turkish capital, alongside the U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo.
It came after a four-hour long meeting with Turkey's president, Erdogan, who had initially refused to accept a halt in fighting. But during a
televised news conference a short time ago, Turkey's foreign minister said this is not a ceasefire, so now I'm confused.
CNN Senior International Correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh, joins me now. This is the first time seeing that the foreign minister of Turkey not
calling this a ceasefire. What's going on? Could you shed some light on this?
PATON WALSH: Well, don't be too confused, Hala. I mean, essentially, this is a difference in terminology because the ceasefire that Mike Pence is
talking about is something Turkey can't really use that nomenclature about because they say a ceasefire is between two legitimate entities. And they
say that they are legitimate as in the Turkish military and the Syrian rebels on the ground. U.S. official referred to me has been mostly
extremist. They're legitimate.
But on the other side, the Syrian Kurds who have lost 10,000 lives fighting ISIS with U.S. backing, they consider them to be terrorists and therefore
they can't be a legitimate party for a ceasefire. The Turkish say this is a pause in fighting. Essentially, it's the same thing.
The big questions here are, how big an area does this encompass? Because Mike Pence very casually used the term safe zone. And he said that'll
extend it 20 miles inside Syrian territory. Well, Turkish forces, we saw them on Sunday, they were certainly 30 miles inside Syrian territory down
on the main highway. So this is essentially an area which we think much of which is already under Turkish control.
Certainly, Ras al-Ayn, a town more to the east of this area, along the border area, that's still being heavily fought over between the Syrian
Kurds and Turkish proxies inside of there. So that may be affected by this.
But the big discrepancy is between the safe zone that Mike Pence talked about, and he said America has previously been in agreement with a safe
zone. Well, there was an agreement between America and Turkey before Donald Trump's phone call last Sunday in which they agreed to an area
pretty much between the towns of Tell Abiad and Ras al-Ayn along the border. About five miles deep, they've been in favor of that.
But the Turkish refer to an enormous area that runs all the way between the Euphrates River to the Iraqi border, that's been the scope of Erdogan's
ambitions.
The confusing thing here is that Mike Pence said there would be no military action around the town of Kabani, which is a major population center in the
western area of that border zone.
But you've got to bear in mind, too, that most of the population zones in which Syrian Kurds live are on that border area and in the town of
Qamishli, the de facto capital, people are in the streets now firing their weapons in the air in celebration so they don't feel like this is a massive
concession.
And then you have to ask yourselves, too, where is the Syrian regime who have swept in suddenly as the new backers, the Syrian Kurds since America -
- I hate to say it, abandoned them on President Trump's orders.
Where does the Syrian regime fits into all of this? And then the joint statement we've just heard from the Turkish government and the Americans,
they don't clarify how wide this border safe zone would be, but they used the interesting phrase that Turkish forces would be quote, primarily
responsible for security in this area.
And that does lead the possibility then areas that are not part of the safe zone that may not be covered in the ceasefire. We may see fighting the
next 120 hours. We could see the regime or the Russians step in to some kind of buffer zone to ensure that the Syrian Kurdish fighting forces are
kept at bay.
But the most important thing in all of this, Hala, cast aside the bombast of the statements that you've just heard, and Donald Trump's welcome of
them. The key point is the 120 hour timing on all of this. That is the gap between now --
GORANI: When does it start? Sorry. There's one thing I --
WALSH: Yes. It's supposed to start now.
GORANI: Yes. OK.
WALSH: It's supposed to start now and it's supposed to go on this withdrawal period before the permanent ceasefire. This is the important
bit. Between now and the moment when Turkish president, Erdogan, and Russian president, Vladimir Putin, meet in Sochi. That is when everybody
thought the real diplomacy to stop this would actually happen.
And so essentially, we have a moment in which the Syrian Kurds can begin to pull back and calm down until maybe -- I have said, the real power brokers
actually meet in Sochi, Hala.
GORANI: All right. Nick Paton Walsh, live in Erbil with more on this breaking news with the United States announcing this agreement to pause
fighting in Northern Syria.
Still to come tonight, a crucial witness at the center of the Ukraine scandal is speaking to Congress. The latest on the impeachment inquiry.
We are live on Capitol Hill, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:45:07]
GORANI: On Capitol Hill, critical testimony from a major figure in the ongoing impeachment inquiry into President Trump. Gordon Sondland, the
Trump campaign donor turned U.S. Ambassador to the European Union, is testifying today before the three House committees spearheading the probe.
He's telling them the president directed him to run all Ukraine policy through Trump's personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani.
And while he says he was disappointed by that, he felt he had one choice, abandon the goal of a White House meeting for Ukraine's president or work
with Giuliani, as he was instructed to do.
Sondland's text messages are a key part now of that inquiry, but the diplomat did not bring documents with him today. Instead telling lawmakers
that the State Department has told him he cannot turn any of those documents over.
Our congressional correspondent Sunlen Serfaty joins me now. What else are we learning from today's testimony, Sunlen?
SUNLEN SERFATY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Hala, this testimony is still going on behind closed doors up here on Capitol Hill and
you hit some of those highlights. This is such a critical moment. House Democrats really wanted Gordon Sondland in in front of the committees, the
three committees investigating to tell them more of what he knew and that testimony was blocked last week.
But, of course, a big moment for the Democrat's impeachment inquiry today. In the room, according to this opening statement, he tells lawmakers that
he was directed by President Trump to work with the president's personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, on Ukraine matters. And he really lays out for
the committee, said that was something, in essence, he was uncomfortable with. He said he was disappointed. That his view was that the men and
women of the State Department should be directing you creating policy, not the president's personal lawyer.
And he said he disagreed with that, was disappointed by that. But notably, in the end, he -- from what it appears followed those instructions, so he
followed what the president was laying out for him to do, and he lays out why in the end he did it.
According to his opening statement, he says we were faced with a choice. We could abandon the goal of the White House meeting for President Zelensky
which we believe was crucial to strengthening U.S.-Ukrainian ties and furthering long held U.S. foreign policy goals in the region. Or we could
do as President Trump directed and talk to Mr. Giuliani to address the president's concerns.
So pretty clear there, Hala, what he was faced with. A lot of Democrats coming out of this committee room testimony today and saying that it was
clear that Sondland, essentially, wanting to give himself a little cover. But certainly, a significant moment. Still ongoing up here on Capitol
Hill. And potentially a big factor will play into the House Democrats impeachment inquiry.
GORANI: All right. Sunlen Serfaty, thanks very much.
There's a lot going on right now with this inquiry. The Turkey-Syria fallout and all the other controversies involving Donald Trump.
A presidential historian weighs in, coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:50:35]
GORANI: The crossfire continues between the U.S. President, Donald Trump, and the Democratic House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi. Pelosi accused the
president of having a meltdown during a meeting on Syria yesterday. After storming out of that meeting, this is what she had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA): I pray for the president all the time and I tell him that I pray for his safety and that of his family. We have to pray for
his health. Because this was a very serious meltdown on the part of the president.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: In response, the president tweeted out a photo that you might have seen trying to turn the tables on Pelosi, but it may have backfired when
Pelosi made that very picture her Twitter cover photo. And you can see there, she's standing up, she's putting a finger there at the U.S.
president and she's surrounded, flanked on either side, by her democratic colleague, all men and speaking to a row of Trump aides and White House
officials, all men.
Now, this all started after the House overwhelmingly passed a resolution opposing the Trump administration's troop withdrawal from Syria.
Is the president feeling any pressure right now? Political analyst, Larry Sabato, joins us now. He's director of the center for politics at the
University of Virginia.
We're going to talk about that Trump letter to Recep Tayyip Erdogan dated October 9th. That was so unusual that when it came out and it was issued
by the White House, people were asking on Twitter, is this real? Is this a joke?
We're going to get to that in a moment. But first of all, let's talk about this meeting and that picture in particular when the White House released
it trying to embarrass Pelosi. What did you make of that and who does it benefit that Pelosi is in this way standing up to Trump?
LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR POLITICS, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Here's why it benefits Pelosi, Hala. We're in a situation now where we are
moving rather quickly towards impeachment. Everything that has come out, so far, has verified what the original whistleblower said and what others
have said since.
Given that, you look to the relationship between the speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and her democratic caucus because they have 235 votes in the House of
Representatives, a solid majority, and if they stick together with only a few defections, then impeachment is pretty much automatic.
This strengthened her with her own caucus. There's no question about it. So I think it backfired on President Trump. He was seen as bullying her
and that's never worked for him in the context of Nancy Pelosi.
GORANI: And this letter, by the way, I mean, the language used is so unusual for a world leader. He wrote on October 9th, Erdogan of Turkey.
The last paragraph says, "History will look upon you favorably if you get this done the right and humane way. It will look upon you forever as the
devil if good things don't happen. Don't be a tough guy. Don't be a fool. I will call you later."
What's your assessment as a presidential historian of a letter like this one?
SABATO: It is absolutely unprecedented to my knowledge. Maybe there are other letters like that that are super-duper top secret and no one's ever
seen them, but I've never heard of anything like that. When I saw the letter, like many people on and off Twitter, I thought it was a forgery.
It just seemed so utterly absurd.
[14:55:01]
And here's what it tells me, Hala. There is now no one in the White House who can talk him out of a terribly bad decision like sending that letter.
GORANI: Yes. And that was going to be my next question because -- how does it work normally, when a president drafts a letter like this, how does
it -- I meant he's not at a computer typing it himself. What happens? He dictates it and someone looks it over? Is there any kinds of editing that
goes into it?
SABATO: Well, normally, it's a complicated process and it goes through many hands, not just editorial but also discussing policy with the
president. Maybe taking the president's original idea and massaging it.
This was as close to a dictation, as you will see. And when Donald Trump dictates anything, watch out. Those are some of his own phrases. I think
it was typed up and maybe grammar was corrected and then it was sent.
GORANI: But what you said is interesting that really there's no one that can kind of reason with him and say this is just not a letter that you
typically send a world leader. I mean, just the wording saying things like -- and also adding that he's confidentially enclosing a copy of a letter
that the leader of the SDF forces gave him.
All those sorts of things. The fact that no one can come up to him and say, Mr. President, I think we need to remove that particular paragraph or
change that wording.
SABATO: He has said to people and some of the key people around him have said that more so than any other White House, at least in the modern era,
he is the presidency. Not just the president. He's the only one who matters. He's the only one who makes a decision.
And by the way, we understand the letter was tossed into the waste can by the recipient.
GORANI: Yes. That's some of our -- that's right. Erdogan. Tossed into the trash -- and also it was written October 9th, then after that, of
course, military operations continued.
Larry Sabato, thank you very much for joining us.
And I want to end on this. Capitol Hill is mourning the loss of a long- time Democratic Congressman, Elijah Cummings. He was 68 years old and chairman of the House Oversight and Reform Committee. One of the three
panels involved in the impeachment inquiry.
His office issued a statement saying the Democrat died from longstanding health challenges. It has not been announced who will replace him as
chairman. But Caroline -- Carolyn, I should say, Maloney, will step in for now.
Thanks for watching tonight. I'm Hala Gorani. Stay with CNN. "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS" is in Brussels.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
