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William Cohen Discusses Situation in Iraq

Aired April 06, 2004 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ZAIN VERJEE, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Now for some more perspective on this and other issues, we turn now to our regular segment, "Close Up With Cohen." Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen is in Washington. He joins us now.
Mr. Secretary, outlawing, pursuing the arrest of Moqtada al-Sadr, is that a good idea?

WILLIAM COHEN, FMR. DEFENSE SECRETARY: Well, it's a very delicate issue for the United States and the coalition forces to deal with. Timing is going to certainly be important. Having declared him to have been indicted and announce that to the public, it seems to me, the CPA or the Provisional Authority now has a problem.

If it doesn't take action, using our military to apprehend and then to prosecute him, it will look weak. If it does take action, it runs the risk of inflaming followers or would-be followers of Sadr. So it's a very tough decision right now.

I think the timing will be important because I think very little action will be taken at least until after April 12, which is a rather important day as far as the Shia Muslims are concerned. So I think after that time we'll have to wait and see.

VERJEE: So you've nailed the most delicate issue there. How do they crack down on Sadr, on the militias, on Fallujah, the insurgents, foreign terrorists as well, and not alienate the Iraqis and not escalate the violence and have it backfire in their faces?

COHEN: I think Ayatollah Sistani is going to play a key role. He has been playing a key role. And whether or not we can persuade him to lend not only vocal support, but to encourage his supporters, to lend support for what the coalition forces are seeking to do, I think is going to be the dispositive factor. In the event that he fails to take some kind of supportive action for the coalition forces, I think that could certainly provide a very important tipping balance in favor of the violence that seems to be growing.

VERJEE: Sistani has apparently already sent some sort of sympathy note. This is according to a spokesman of Moqtada al-Sadr, to al-Sadr himself. I mean, that's a dangerous sign for the coalition authorities, isn't it? I mean, to gamble on Sistani and other clerics is dangerous.

COHEN: Well, we have been counting on Sistani and other clerics. So the Shia majority, who have been ver important in terms of trying to develop this constitution that will allow for majority rule, providing for minority rights under the constitution, Sistani himself has had reservations about that constitution, and most recently has allowed his supporters to voice those reservations and, indeed, disagreements.

But, frankly, he will continue to play an important role in how we deal with him and negotiate with him as a coalition force as such. It will be very important in determining whether or not the situation can be calmed or whether it will be inflamed.

VERJEE: If it's inflamed, even if it is in the situation it is today, how is it possible to hand over power in 85 days?

COHEN: Well, handing over political responsibility is really the key phrase I think to keep focused on, because the military power will continue to be there. The coalition forces will have to remain for an indefinite period of time, a very lengthy period of time, until such time as the country can be stabilized and the roots of democracy, at least, take hold.

But the political power, will it be turned over to the Governing Council, an expanded Governing Council? Will there be some kind of compromise negotiated by Mr. Brahimi, who is in the country today, or this past weekend? Will the United Nations play an important role?

All of those issues have to be decided in a very short period of time. The date is important to fix. It doesn't mean it's immutable. But it's important to fix the date so that the parties as such will be incentivized, motivated to come up with a political organization that can, in fact, accept responsibility until there is an election January of next year.

VERJEE: Would the security issue -- are more troops the answer, as is being discussed? We heard John Abizaid apparently asking his commanders for options for more troops.

COHEN: Well, I think that that has been an issue that has been under some discussion for a long period of time. I've always believed that it's better to have more than fewer, since you can always reduce the number. But to have fewer then call for an increase, it presents something of a political issue, particularly in an election year.

VERJEE: And there's more troops or so. That also means they would have to re-supply and protect those troops and risk being seen as occupiers that just keep coming and not going.

COHEN: Well, if you're an occupying power, then you have to break the back, so to speak, of the insurgents or the remnants, or the al Qaeda or the combination of all three if you hope to succeed in the stabilization effort. A failure to suppress that opposition can only lead to growing insurgency and widespread violence, some of which we're starting to see now.

Right now, it may be possible to contain it if appropriate action is taken. I think that the coalition forces have to exercise, certainly flex muscle. But they also have to exercise restraint. And they have to be very measured in the kind of military operation that will be conducted, putting down the resistance, but not doing so in a way that's calculated to unite the Shia and the Sunnis in opposition to the coalition forces. That would be the worst of all worlds.

VERJEE: Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen, thank you so much.

END

TO ORDER VIDEOTAPES AND TRANSCRIPTS OF CNN INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMING, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE THE SECURE ONLINE ORDER FROM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired April 6, 2004 - 12:30:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Now for some more perspective on this and other issues, we turn now to our regular segment, "Close Up With Cohen." Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen is in Washington. He joins us now.
Mr. Secretary, outlawing, pursuing the arrest of Moqtada al-Sadr, is that a good idea?

WILLIAM COHEN, FMR. DEFENSE SECRETARY: Well, it's a very delicate issue for the United States and the coalition forces to deal with. Timing is going to certainly be important. Having declared him to have been indicted and announce that to the public, it seems to me, the CPA or the Provisional Authority now has a problem.

If it doesn't take action, using our military to apprehend and then to prosecute him, it will look weak. If it does take action, it runs the risk of inflaming followers or would-be followers of Sadr. So it's a very tough decision right now.

I think the timing will be important because I think very little action will be taken at least until after April 12, which is a rather important day as far as the Shia Muslims are concerned. So I think after that time we'll have to wait and see.

VERJEE: So you've nailed the most delicate issue there. How do they crack down on Sadr, on the militias, on Fallujah, the insurgents, foreign terrorists as well, and not alienate the Iraqis and not escalate the violence and have it backfire in their faces?

COHEN: I think Ayatollah Sistani is going to play a key role. He has been playing a key role. And whether or not we can persuade him to lend not only vocal support, but to encourage his supporters, to lend support for what the coalition forces are seeking to do, I think is going to be the dispositive factor. In the event that he fails to take some kind of supportive action for the coalition forces, I think that could certainly provide a very important tipping balance in favor of the violence that seems to be growing.

VERJEE: Sistani has apparently already sent some sort of sympathy note. This is according to a spokesman of Moqtada al-Sadr, to al-Sadr himself. I mean, that's a dangerous sign for the coalition authorities, isn't it? I mean, to gamble on Sistani and other clerics is dangerous.

COHEN: Well, we have been counting on Sistani and other clerics. So the Shia majority, who have been ver important in terms of trying to develop this constitution that will allow for majority rule, providing for minority rights under the constitution, Sistani himself has had reservations about that constitution, and most recently has allowed his supporters to voice those reservations and, indeed, disagreements.

But, frankly, he will continue to play an important role in how we deal with him and negotiate with him as a coalition force as such. It will be very important in determining whether or not the situation can be calmed or whether it will be inflamed.

VERJEE: If it's inflamed, even if it is in the situation it is today, how is it possible to hand over power in 85 days?

COHEN: Well, handing over political responsibility is really the key phrase I think to keep focused on, because the military power will continue to be there. The coalition forces will have to remain for an indefinite period of time, a very lengthy period of time, until such time as the country can be stabilized and the roots of democracy, at least, take hold.

But the political power, will it be turned over to the Governing Council, an expanded Governing Council? Will there be some kind of compromise negotiated by Mr. Brahimi, who is in the country today, or this past weekend? Will the United Nations play an important role?

All of those issues have to be decided in a very short period of time. The date is important to fix. It doesn't mean it's immutable. But it's important to fix the date so that the parties as such will be incentivized, motivated to come up with a political organization that can, in fact, accept responsibility until there is an election January of next year.

VERJEE: Would the security issue -- are more troops the answer, as is being discussed? We heard John Abizaid apparently asking his commanders for options for more troops.

COHEN: Well, I think that that has been an issue that has been under some discussion for a long period of time. I've always believed that it's better to have more than fewer, since you can always reduce the number. But to have fewer then call for an increase, it presents something of a political issue, particularly in an election year.

VERJEE: And there's more troops or so. That also means they would have to re-supply and protect those troops and risk being seen as occupiers that just keep coming and not going.

COHEN: Well, if you're an occupying power, then you have to break the back, so to speak, of the insurgents or the remnants, or the al Qaeda or the combination of all three if you hope to succeed in the stabilization effort. A failure to suppress that opposition can only lead to growing insurgency and widespread violence, some of which we're starting to see now.

Right now, it may be possible to contain it if appropriate action is taken. I think that the coalition forces have to exercise, certainly flex muscle. But they also have to exercise restraint. And they have to be very measured in the kind of military operation that will be conducted, putting down the resistance, but not doing so in a way that's calculated to unite the Shia and the Sunnis in opposition to the coalition forces. That would be the worst of all worlds.

VERJEE: Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen, thank you so much.

END

TO ORDER VIDEOTAPES AND TRANSCRIPTS OF CNN INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMING, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE THE SECURE ONLINE ORDER FROM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com