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William Cohen Weighs in on Gaza Vote, Missing Explosives

Aired October 26, 2004 - 12:32   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ZAIN VERJEE, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: The Gaza vote, the missing explosives, other events in Iraq, the U.S. elections, all talking points for our regular weekly discussion with former U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen. He now heads the Cohen Group. It's an international business consulting firm.
Secretary Cohen, good to see you. The Gaza vote, the disengagement plan, do you think, as Ariel Sharon says, it will make Israel more secure?

WILLIAM COHEN, FORMER U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY: Well, I believe, if it passes, and it's going to be a very narrow vote, to be sure, and the question of how narrow that vote is and on the margin of that vote will depend whether it's going to be put to a referendum in the future, which could in fact delay the pullout in Gaza. But if it goes through, then it certainly is going to shift the burden to the Palestinians, to then seek, and force them to clamp down as hard as they can upon terror activities in Gaza itself and that originate in Gaza.

So this is step one. What should be step two and three in the future will not come about if there is not a cessation or at least a serious diminution of the violence itself.

So a bold step by Ariel Sharon. Could lead to a peaceful resolution and to a two-state solution, as President Bush has proposed with his road map plan, but much will depend upon the closeness of the vote, and also whether or not the Palestinians are going to have a chairman or a new leader...

VERJEE: Right.

COHEN: ... who is willing to pursue that.

VERJEE: Well, the Palestinians are saying, look, something like this is just going to kill the already deadlocked peace process, and that this isn't Gaza first, but Gaza last.

COHEN: Well, if it's Gaza last, then certainly it's not going to work. This was a unilateral step taken by Ariel Sharon. If the motivation is to move those settlers out of the Gaza into the West Bank and to expand the West Bank, then it's certainly not going to lead ultimately to a peaceful solution. If it is step on in a long-step process -- multi-step process, whereby the Palestinians also will reciprocate with a demonstration that they can have a secure environment and will insist upon a secure environment, then steps two and three and four certainly can come about, in which case we'll see a real reconciliation or resolution of the peace process.

VERJEE: Three hundred and eighty tons of explosives are missing in Iraq. Nobody seems to know for sure when this happened and why we're finding out about this now. Who do you think is responsible here?

COHEN: Well, we really don't know whether the -- the explosives were removed shortly before the coalition forces arrived, or after. But as a practical matter, at this point, it's not as relevant as where are they, who has them, and are they in the hands of the insurgents, are they on the black market? Surely someone has them and it can only spell concern for all of those in the region.

A single pound of this type of explosive brought down Pan Am 103, and we're talking about 380 tons. So it's a serious issue, and now the question is, certainly find out what went wrong and who didn't secure the munitions. But the real issue is, are they now being used to destroy coalition forces and to kill Iraqi citizens, innocent citizens in the process, and that's really the test right now.

VERJEE: How would the Pentagon, if this is the case, try and track these missing explosives?

COHEN: I'm sorry?

VERJEE: How would the Pentagon track -- how would the Pentagon try and track these missing explosives? Are there satellite images to go back and look at, or what would be the process?

COHEN: Well, it's really going to depend upon the Iraqi people to convey intelligence to the coalition forces. This is not something that you can track by satellite, at least I assume it has now been marked or tagged, so they could be tracked by satellite. It is going to depend upon having the support of the indigenous population, the Iraqis, who then convey information to the coalition forces as to who has the munitions, where they are stored, are they about to be used, can they be stopped. This would be human intelligence rather than technical intelligence at this point.

VERJEE: Fallujah. Do you anticipate a full-scale assault on Fallujah soon? Do you think that would be the right thing to do?

COHEN: Well, based on what I see taking place today, it would seem to be a build-up of forces that shortly after the election, it would seem to me, that as U.S. forces are increased by delaying departures and having more rotation forces coming in in order to secure the election sites, that that would also coincide with a major combat assault upon Fallujah. So I think that the signs are on the wall, the handwriting at least, and it would appear to be a combat-type of mission, unless some sort of a settlement can be resolved, such as happened in Sadr City. But absent that, I believe that the forces are being gathered in order to wage a major combat effort.

VERJEE: Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen. Thank you so much, Secretary Cohen. Good to see you.

COHEN: Pleasure, Zain.

END

TO ORDER VIDEOTAPES AND TRANSCRIPTS OF CNN INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMING, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE THE SECURE ONLINE ORDER FROM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired October 26, 2004 - 12:32:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: The Gaza vote, the missing explosives, other events in Iraq, the U.S. elections, all talking points for our regular weekly discussion with former U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen. He now heads the Cohen Group. It's an international business consulting firm.
Secretary Cohen, good to see you. The Gaza vote, the disengagement plan, do you think, as Ariel Sharon says, it will make Israel more secure?

WILLIAM COHEN, FORMER U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY: Well, I believe, if it passes, and it's going to be a very narrow vote, to be sure, and the question of how narrow that vote is and on the margin of that vote will depend whether it's going to be put to a referendum in the future, which could in fact delay the pullout in Gaza. But if it goes through, then it certainly is going to shift the burden to the Palestinians, to then seek, and force them to clamp down as hard as they can upon terror activities in Gaza itself and that originate in Gaza.

So this is step one. What should be step two and three in the future will not come about if there is not a cessation or at least a serious diminution of the violence itself.

So a bold step by Ariel Sharon. Could lead to a peaceful resolution and to a two-state solution, as President Bush has proposed with his road map plan, but much will depend upon the closeness of the vote, and also whether or not the Palestinians are going to have a chairman or a new leader...

VERJEE: Right.

COHEN: ... who is willing to pursue that.

VERJEE: Well, the Palestinians are saying, look, something like this is just going to kill the already deadlocked peace process, and that this isn't Gaza first, but Gaza last.

COHEN: Well, if it's Gaza last, then certainly it's not going to work. This was a unilateral step taken by Ariel Sharon. If the motivation is to move those settlers out of the Gaza into the West Bank and to expand the West Bank, then it's certainly not going to lead ultimately to a peaceful solution. If it is step on in a long-step process -- multi-step process, whereby the Palestinians also will reciprocate with a demonstration that they can have a secure environment and will insist upon a secure environment, then steps two and three and four certainly can come about, in which case we'll see a real reconciliation or resolution of the peace process.

VERJEE: Three hundred and eighty tons of explosives are missing in Iraq. Nobody seems to know for sure when this happened and why we're finding out about this now. Who do you think is responsible here?

COHEN: Well, we really don't know whether the -- the explosives were removed shortly before the coalition forces arrived, or after. But as a practical matter, at this point, it's not as relevant as where are they, who has them, and are they in the hands of the insurgents, are they on the black market? Surely someone has them and it can only spell concern for all of those in the region.

A single pound of this type of explosive brought down Pan Am 103, and we're talking about 380 tons. So it's a serious issue, and now the question is, certainly find out what went wrong and who didn't secure the munitions. But the real issue is, are they now being used to destroy coalition forces and to kill Iraqi citizens, innocent citizens in the process, and that's really the test right now.

VERJEE: How would the Pentagon, if this is the case, try and track these missing explosives?

COHEN: I'm sorry?

VERJEE: How would the Pentagon track -- how would the Pentagon try and track these missing explosives? Are there satellite images to go back and look at, or what would be the process?

COHEN: Well, it's really going to depend upon the Iraqi people to convey intelligence to the coalition forces. This is not something that you can track by satellite, at least I assume it has now been marked or tagged, so they could be tracked by satellite. It is going to depend upon having the support of the indigenous population, the Iraqis, who then convey information to the coalition forces as to who has the munitions, where they are stored, are they about to be used, can they be stopped. This would be human intelligence rather than technical intelligence at this point.

VERJEE: Fallujah. Do you anticipate a full-scale assault on Fallujah soon? Do you think that would be the right thing to do?

COHEN: Well, based on what I see taking place today, it would seem to be a build-up of forces that shortly after the election, it would seem to me, that as U.S. forces are increased by delaying departures and having more rotation forces coming in in order to secure the election sites, that that would also coincide with a major combat assault upon Fallujah. So I think that the signs are on the wall, the handwriting at least, and it would appear to be a combat-type of mission, unless some sort of a settlement can be resolved, such as happened in Sadr City. But absent that, I believe that the forces are being gathered in order to wage a major combat effort.

VERJEE: Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen. Thank you so much, Secretary Cohen. Good to see you.

COHEN: Pleasure, Zain.

END

TO ORDER VIDEOTAPES AND TRANSCRIPTS OF CNN INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMING, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE THE SECURE ONLINE ORDER FROM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com